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Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2006 1:22:56 AM

OPEN MM Profiles Stock Matrix found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2006 12:58:50 AM

June Gold (gc06m) $687.40 ($+2.40) ... 30-minute delayed.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2006 12:55:43 AM

Aha! ... QCharts just removed "bad tick" to 84.12.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2006 12:54:20 AM

dx00y now 84.40 (30-minute delayed) ... 60-minute interval chart (all sessions) with updated WEEKLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2006 12:39:28 AM

dx00y chart coming.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2006 12:39:19 AM

dx00y 84.36 now ... showing one (1) tick at 84.12 (time 11:59:39).

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2006 12:31:21 AM

Dollar Index (dx00y) alert 84.12 +0.19% (30-min. delayed) ... just got hit.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2006 12:30:04 AM

Trying to find that dx00y montage chart discussed several sessions ago.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2006 12:28:32 AM

YM 11,440 with evening/morning low 11,438.

In my opinion, the recent dollar lows are becoming a "point of concern" for equity bulls as if the porridge has become "too cold." Just as dx00y strength much above 90.00 in March was simply "too hot."

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2006 12:23:44 AM

Index Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

dx00y 84.40 (30-minute delayed) has traded evening session high of 84.71, but fading back toward WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 5/16/2006 12:16:48 AM

Near-term Dollar strength could be key to broader equity bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 10:43:10 PM

YM 5-minute interval chart (all sessions) with Tuesday's DAILY Pivot Retracement (green) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 10:32:11 PM

YM Pivots for tomorrow at this Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 10:19:10 PM

YM 5-minute interval chart of Monday's trade at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 5/15/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 9:57:04 PM

Month-to-date Stock/Option Trade Blotter (updated) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 9:48:44 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity ... Swing trade sold covered one (1) of the Valero Energy VLO May $60 Puts (VLO-QL) against the then underlying full position $10K short.

Covered roughly 1/3, or 58 shares ($10k=full position, or 158 shares) of the Valero Energy (VLO) short at $59.75 ($+3.72, or +5.86%).

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 9:26:38 PM

OEX Option Montage per tonight's Market Wrap at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 4:51:18 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 4:50:47 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 4:03:28 PM

VF Corp. (VFC) $61.34 +1.42% ... halte alert ... news pending.

Jane Fox : 5/15/2006 3:58:05 PM

Economic Reports for tomorrow are :
8:30a.m. April Housing Starts.
8:30a.m. April Producer Price Index.
9:15a.m. April Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization.

Jane Fox : 5/15/2006 3:43:17 PM

After Hours:Agilent, Jo-Ann Stores to release financial results

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 3:39:59 PM

Bear Stearns (Argentina upgrade) DJ - Bear Stearns has raised its recommendation on Argentina to outperform from marketperform, citing sustained momentum in the country's economic recovery and the possibility of ratings upgrades.

In a research note issued Monday, the Wall Street firm acknowledged that it has lagged in upgrading Argentina, whose credit has delivered returns of 8.4% so far this year. Of all Latin American sovereign bonds, Argentina's are the second best performing after Ecuador.

"We have been surprised at the staying power of Argentina's recovery, and believe that the economy still has significant impetus, as long as commodity prices remain high," Bear Stearns said.

The firm's analysts project that growth in the first quarter will be at least 5.8%, indicating that economic expansion is still strong after three consecutive years of growth rates around 9%. President Nestor Kirchner continues to enjoy a wide base of support. On the fiscal side, Argentina is done with 2006 financing and "2007 will also prove to be an easy financing year...as long as good international conditions continue," the firm said.

Bear Stearns said it had been cautious on Argentina because of policy concerns, especially regarding the government's long-running and difficult reworking of utility contracts. The Monday report said pinched energy supplies are a key concern going forward, since "there have been virtually no capacity increases since the start of the crisis, posing a significant risk to a continued expansion."

On inflation, which has been Argentine policymakers' top macroeconomic worry, Bear Stearns said consumer prices should rise between 12%-13% in 2006. Analysts said they don't believe inflation will fall back into single digits until end-2008.

"The abatement of inflation pressures will only take place via slower growth, a stronger nominal FX rate, lower international commodity prices, or a combination of those factors," Bear Stearns said.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 3:13:18 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 5/15/2006 3:07:55 PM

OK bulls you can rest easy for a while the TICKS made it back to +800.

Jane Fox : 5/15/2006 3:07:23 PM

Teh $ may be ralling today but not enough to change the daily picutre. Link

Jane Fox : 5/15/2006 3:05:11 PM

Dateline WSJ The dollar is rallying modestly today, but that may not last now that the Bush Administration has all but stated that it is embracing a weak-dollar policy in an effort to reduce the trade gap. Analysts, however, warn that past experience doesn't show that a weakening currency will result in an improvement of trade imbalances, and it also raises the possibility of more inflation. A weaker dollar means imported goods from developing nations will become more expensive, and that could hurt consumers. Exports are up 11.6% on a year-over-year basis, compared with a 13% increase in imports.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 3:02:23 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 2:55:00 PM

Venezuela's Chavez Brushes Aside US Ban on Arms Sales

AP- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez on Monday brushed aside the U.S.'s suspension of arms sales to his country, saying "this doesn't matter to us at all."

"It's the empire and it has a great capacity to do harm to the countries of the world," he said, referring to the U.S. as "an irrational empire." The Venezeulan leader, on a visit to London, also said his government wouldn't respond with punitive measures such as travel restrictions.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 2:53:09 PM

Sturm Ruger (RGR) $5.81 -1.52% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 2:51:47 PM

US Imposes Ban on Arms Sales to Venezueala (State Department)

AP- The U.S. is imposing a ban on arms sales to Venezuela because of what it claims is a lack of support by President Hugo Chavez's leftist government for counterterrorism efforts, a State Department official said Monday.

The official said Venezuela has been providing a safe haven for the two main leftist guerrilla groups in Colombia. The official spoke only on the condition of anonymity because the arms sale ban hadn't yet been announced.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 2:49:37 PM

Bear Stearns Ups Argentina to "Outperform" from "Marketperform ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 2:47:50 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Action so far has been to sell 1 covered put for Valero Energy. Take partial profits (roughly 1/3 of full position) at $59.75.

Jane Fox : 5/15/2006 2:16:30 PM


Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 2:15:51 PM

Swing trade short buy back partial alert ... Let's buy back 58 shares of the current 158 shares short in Valero Energy (VLO) $59.75 -4.30% here.

Leaves 100 shares short, books partial profit in underlying.

Jane Fox : 5/15/2006 2:15:06 PM

ES's new daily lows was NOT confirmed by a VIX new daily high so I think that bottom will hold unless we get the VIX really moving upwards. Link

Jane Fox : 5/15/2006 2:00:53 PM

$RUT ad line is 354/1328 not as bearish as Friday but still pretty bearish.

Jane Fox : 5/15/2006 1:59:52 PM


Jane Fox : 5/15/2006 1:59:40 PM


Jane Fox : 5/15/2006 1:40:35 PM

AD volume is telling me daily lows will not hold - at least in NQ and ER

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 1:36:28 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jane Fox : 5/15/2006 1:26:03 PM

This just in from Wired News Presidential adviser Karl Rove blamed the war in Iraq on Monday for dragging down President Bush's job approval ratings in public opinion polls. "People like this president," Rove said. "They're just sour right now on the war."

Rove said that Bush's likeability ratings are far higher than his approval ratings. "There is a disconnect" because of the Iraq conflict, Rove told the American Enterprise Institute.

"I think the war looms over everything. There's no doubt about it," Rove said during a question-and-answer session after a speech on the economy at the conservative think tank.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 1:24:08 PM

Covered put fill alert ... for the Valero Energy VLO May $60 Puts (VLO-QL) at $1.00.

VLO $60.30 -3.39% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 1:21:01 PM

NAHB May Housing Index 45 vs. 51 in April

DJ- The National Association of Home Builders' index for sales of new, single-family homes fell to 45 in May from 51 in April, marking its lowest point since mid-1995, the association said Monday.

The April index was revised up one point from last month's preliminary estimate.

When the Housing Market Index is over 50, it means the number of builders who see "good" sales outnumber the number who see "poor" sales. The index, which is adjusted for seasonal variations, was based on a survey of 385 home builders, who answer questions about sales prospects now and in the near-term.

NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders said the decline in the index "is not inconsistent with the orderly cooling down process we're projecting for home sales and single family housing starts in 2006," citing historical experience, particularly the 1994-95 period.

The NAHB expects new home sales to be down 12% this year from their record level in 2005, while single-family housing starts are seen down 7% from last year's record, Seiders said. Housing starts are expected to be supported by big builder backlogs and reconstruction for last year's hurricanes, he said.

Within the NAHB's Housing Market Index, the component for present sales of single-family homes fell to 50 in May from 55 in April.

Expectations for sales in the next six months decreased during in May by five points to 54, the NAHB said. The traffic of prospective buyers fell the most sharply, dropping seven points to 32.

The May decline in builder confidence was broad-based and apparent in every region, the association said. Regional indexes were down three points to 47 in the Northeast, down two points to 30 in the Midwest, down six points to 51 in the South and down eight points to 61 in the West.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 1:11:54 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 1:02:28 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 12:35:41 PM


DJ- Supreme Court hands eBay a victory in patent fight with MercExchange, ruling unanimously that U.S. District Court wasn't required to issue a permanent patent injunction against the company in infringement case.

EBAY $31.42 -0.22% Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 12:33:40 PM


DJ- Morgan Stanley is searching aggressively for mortgage origination and mortgage servicing acquisitions, but will remain disciplined in its purchases, Chairman and CEO John Mack says.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 12:31:59 PM

FDA Finds Baush Plant Violations Unrelated To Infection

DJ- Bausch & Lomb shares climb 9.5% after Food and Drug Administration says it found some manufacturing violations at Bausch & Lomb's Greenville, S.C. plant, but agency says violations aren't related to the cause of Fusarium keratitis, a fungal infection that can cause blindness. Also, Bausch & Lomb says it is conducting a permanent worldwide recall of its ReNu with MoistureLoc contact lens solution.

BOL $48.60 +9.36% Link ...

Jane Fox : 5/15/2006 12:30:50 PM

DAteline CNN Bush administration to remove Libya from list of nations United States labels as terrorist states; plans to renew normal diplomatic relations, State Department and Libyan officials tell CNN.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 12:26:35 PM

On the offer alert for the Valero Energy VLO May $60 Puts (VLO-QL) $0.90 x $1.00

Looking to sell covered against the underlying short.

VLO $60.47 -3.12% here.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 12:19:36 PM

Brazil's Petrobras Plans $16B Gas Investment Through 2010

DJ- Brazilian energy company Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PBR), or Petrobras, plans to invest $16 billion through 2010 to develop the country's abundant natural gas reserves, the company's CFO said Monday.

"We have an ambitious project to invest in the gas sector," said Almir Barbosa, Petrobras' chief financial officer. "The forecast calls for investments of $16 billion through 2010. It's possible that the investments could be increased but there is nothing yet concrete."

The investment comes after the May 1 decision by Bolivian President Evo Morales to nationalize that country's oil and gas sectors. The measure directly affected Petrobras and Brazil.

Bolivia supplies about 50% of the natural gas consumed by Brazil, or 25 million cubic meters per day. Much of that gas comes from Petrobras Bolivia installations, where the company has invested $1.5 billion since 1996 to develop Bolivia's natural gas sector.

Brazil currently pays $3.26 per million British thermal units, or BTUs, for the natural gas it gets from Bolivia. However, the Bolivian government is seeking a price increase of an additional $2 per BTU.

That's led Brazilian authorities to push for development of the country's abundant natural gas reserves, a move which appears to be gaining momentum inside state-controlled Petrobras.

In addition to Bolivia's nationalization, a measure approved by the country's Congress in 2005 crimped Petrobras financial results from Bolivia in the first quarter, Barbosa said.

"The net profit of Petrobras' operations in Bolivia decreased from $24 million in the first quarter of 2005 to $13 million in the first quarter of 2006," Barbosa said. "The decline comes after the Bolivian government's decision to raise taxes from 18% to 50%.

In May 2005, the Bolivian government approved an increase in export sales taxes to 50%. The nationalization measure by Morales in turn increased the tax to 82% from 50%.

PBR $97.49 -3.12% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 12:16:46 PM

Dollar Index (dx00y) 84.43 +0.55% (30-minute delayed) ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 12:16:04 PM

Treasury Spokesman (headlines) DJ- No Target Number For Chinese Forex Rate

US Wants Greater Chinese Forex Flexibility

Treasury Affirms Strong US Dollar Policy

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 12:04:03 PM

EU Will Support Iran Civilian Nuclear Program DJ - The European Union is working on a package of economic and political measures to offer Iran, and will support a "proliferation-proof" civilian nuclear program for that country, a top E.U. official said Monday.

"We are prepared to work on a co-operation package and support Iran's development of a proliferation-proof civilian nuclear program," said Austrian Foreign Minister Ursula Plassnik, whose country holds the rotating E.U. presidency.

Plassnik was speaking after a meeting of E.U. foreign ministers where a package of enhanced incentives to Iran was being considered in order to induce Tehran to halt a nuclear program that could be used to produce nuclear weapons.

She said the E.U.'s new plan would contain three elements - economic assistance and political co-operation, in addition to support for the civilian nuclear program.

"We remain committed to finding a diplomatic solution...the intention is not to push Iran into further isolation but to find a way to bring Iran back to a negotiating track," Plassnik said. "But we will also look at measures to be taken should Iran continue to reject this course."

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 11:58:25 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

OPEN Trades Stock Pivot Matrix at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 11:14:05 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Friday's Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 11:03:15 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 10:37:13 AM

OI Newsletter Plays found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 5/15/2006 10:37:09 AM

Neurocrine (NBIX) Expecting FDA approval on Indiplon drug today. Link Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 10:27:17 AM


DJ- IBM expects to make some of its advanced software technologies available to public-health organizations and scientists around the world to help them more accurately predict and prepare for the potential spread of avian flu or other infectious diseases.

IBM $82.75 +0.43% Link

Tab Gilles : 5/15/2006 10:26:42 AM


Murphy Oil (MUR) Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 10:21:48 AM


DJ- In a signal that Beijing will allow its currency to appreciate more rapidly, China's central bank set a key trading benchmark for the yuan under the psychologically important level of 8.0 to the dollar for the first time.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 10:21:18 AM


DJ- Net foreign purchases of U.S. securities total $69.8 billion in March, down 23% from February's $90.5 billion, the Treasury says in its monthly international capital report. Wall Street expected net foreign purchases of $74.7 billion.

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 10:20:06 AM


DJ- Boeing agrees to pay $615 million to end three years of Justice Department probes into high-profile contracting scandals, in deal that allows the company to avoid criminal charges or any admission of wrongdoing.

BA $85.47 -1.78% Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 10:03:26 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 9:55:46 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link ... Will look to sell covered one (1) of the Valero VLO May $60 Puts (VLO-QL) for $1.00.

This would OBLIGATE the trader to buy the stock at $60.00 should it close $60.00 or lower on Friday (net $69.00)

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 9:37:56 AM

Friday's Sector Status Changes found at this Link ... (see sector bell curve 12:29:40 AM)

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 9:36:58 AM

Friday's Sector Status Changes found at this

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 9:27:34 AM

Sunday's Market Monitor at this Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 9:21:40 AM

June Palladium (pa06m) $368.00 -7.61% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 9:20:28 AM

June Unleaded (hu06m) $2.12 -2.75% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 9:20:03 AM

June Crude Oil (cl06m) $70.20 -2.55% ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 9:19:22 AM

Dollar Index (dx00y) 84.34 ...

Jeff Bailey : 5/15/2006 9:18:43 AM

June Gold (gc06m) fell as low as $690.00, bouncing to $699.00 ($-19.10).

Jane Fox : 5/15/2006 8:54:26 AM

Dateline Bloomberg - Manufacturing growth in New York state unexpectedly slowed in May to a pace that suggests higher energy prices and interest rates may be hurting demand, a Federal Reserve report showed.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's general economic index decreased to 12.4, the lowest since June 2005, from 15.8 in April, today's report showed. Readings exceeding zero signal that more surveyed manufacturers reported business improvement than deterioration. The index averaged 15.6 last year.

Higher borrowing costs and rising energy prices may be discouraging consumers from making major purchases. Business investment in new equipment and demand from overseas are still supporting manufacturing and economic growth, economists said.

"The underlying trend for manufacturing is still positive," Diane Swonk, chief economist at Chicago-based Mesirow Financial Inc., said before the report. "This decline may just represent a return to normal levels."

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