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Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 2:50:22 AM

Makes you wonder doesn't it? Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 2:49:46 AM

Airbus is private. Might have helped with Boeing (BA) Link ... Can't say there's anything "wrong" with BA, it looks like a lot of major indices. BA needed to give a sell signal at some point as it had exceeded its bullish vertical count a looooong time ago.

Thought they might go bankrupt back in 2002 didn't you?

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 2:41:48 AM

France's CAC 40 ($CAC) Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 2:40:40 AM

London's FTSE ($FTSE) Link ... any bets on 5,450 next couple of days?

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 2:39:05 AM

German DAX ($DAX) yet to open Link

Looks similar to our good friend Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 2:34:57 AM

Hang Seng ($HSI) up 11 points at 15,461 Link ... Session low/high 15,406/15,512 (if the low/high is in for today, no chart entry, or meaningful move)

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 2:30:11 AM

Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) up 117.81 points, or +0.81% at 14.750.84 Link ... Session low/high 14,390/14,825 (chart O's to 14,400 and stop)

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 2:25:47 AM

Program Trading Levels for Friday ... HL Camp & Company has their comptuers set for program buying at $+13.52 and set for program selling at $+9.98.

Fair Value for the S&P 500 is $11.82.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 2:03:52 AM

Index Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 1:05:30 AM

YM Pivot Matrix for Friday at this Link

IMPORTANT explanation

OK, I've spent the better part of 3 hours working on the YM's September contract and MONTHLY Pivot levels. That is, trying to figure out what the regular session high/low would be, so that we can "roll" to the September contract.

On Friday, I'm going to be trying to perform a little extra calibration if possible.

I'll explain to you what I've done so that YOU are comfortable with my logic and understand that until we get a FULL month of trading with good liquidity in the September contract, we're probably dealing with TRADE PROFILES that are going to be within 5-10 points of institutional computers.

In the above MATRIX, YOU and I have great certainty of today's high/low ties for the June and September contract. Good liquidity in both.

One day left in the week, but the following chart of the June/September futures contract montage will give us the picture that the September contract is starting to tie in better with June.

June/September futures montage at this Link

Let's start with the May high for the June contract and one "problem" we face as we develop our MONTHLY Pivot Levels for June and the September contract I've placed my cursor box on the 05/10/06 03:20:00-04:20:00 interval to show that the September contract would not necessarily tie, or be indicative of what that contract would have traded if more liquid on 05/10/06. After looking at 5-minute interval charts, I determined that I should add 73 points to the June contract high in order to derive a September contract high for the month of May. Developing this high is still somewhat questionable in my mind as the one trade at 11,775 for the September contract found the June contract trading 11,671-11,675; nearly 100-point difference.

Now for the low. The June contract's regular session low for the month of May came just prior to the 05/23/06 YM close. As you may have experienced/witnessed first-hand, the YM dove suddenly and things were crazy. That day, as I do every day, I got the official regular session low and close from the CBOT website of low/close being 11,030/11,040.

After looking at 5-minute interval charts of both contracts, I determined that I should add 80 points to the June contract's May low to establish a September contract low of 11,110.

Now, I did all of this, then punched in the High/Low I established for the September contract along with the May 31 close of 11,269 to get my MONTHLY Pivot Levels for the YM06U.

I then placed my MONTHLY Pivot retracement on the YM06U to see, or make sure I held some of the same integrity we've witnessed in the YM06M.

I will confess that I would rather have "added" an identical 73, or 80 points to the June contract's highly liquid contract to derive similar high/lows for the September contract and tomorrow I want to try and make sure that I'm as close as I can be while the YM is hanging out at MONTHLY S1 and its 80.9% retracement.

At $5/point, being off 5-10 points isn't that much, and it seems like I'm splitting hairs, but I also understand we have traders that are trading 5 contracts, sometimes more per PROFILE and if I'm PROFILING a trade based off action at a MONTHLY Pivot Retracement level and my Pivot Levels are off 10-points, then I would want to try and do as much as I can to make sure I've got better integrity with the MONTHLY Pivot Levels at this point.

Anyhow ... I anticipate some questions on "how did you come up with a September contract high/low of 11,775/11,110 when the chart clearly shows the September contract's high/low was 11,775/11,146."

Ahhhh... the cash markets. Continuous!

OI Technical Staff : 6/8/2006 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 8:43:19 PM

Thank you! I got lost in time. Can't believe the year is almost half gone.

Jane Fox : 6/8/2006 8:40:11 PM

Correct it is the close.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 8:39:15 PM

Jane ... thank you! close, not settle right?

Jane Fox : 6/8/2006 8:38:45 PM

Jeff YMU06 (YM Sept contract) closed at 11269 on May31. Hopefully this is what you are looking for.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 8:14:16 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Today's Activity


Swing trade short close out the 1/2 position in Baker Hughs (BHI) at target of $79.00 ($+5.20, or +6.18%).

Day traded long full position in shares of AMR Corp. (AMR) at the offer of $23.20, but was stopped at $23.10. ($-0.10, or -0.43%)

It looked like a "patriotic rally" was taking hold and I felt patriotic too. Closed out the 1/2 position short in Boeing (BA) at $80.35 ($+1.20, or +1.47%).

YM Futures

Overnight shorted the YM at 10,909 (Stop: ES06M 1,264 : Tgt= 10,810) and went to bed with some bearish thoughts. Something unexpected, or not in the plans took place, lowered stop to 10,945 and was stopped out there. (-36 points, or $-180/contract).

Closing Comments

While my QCharts "Profiles" page shows just 91 contracts traded today in the PTR-RS, that's CBOE only. I show 1,034 traded today from other exchanges combined.

A couple of weeks ago, Jane and I had a discussion about risk and roughly 65.98% of stock specific risk is attributed to market risk. Today's trade in PTR and the PTR-RS is perhaps a prime example of that type of risk. CHINA MARKET RISK

The trade at $4.00. I see 11 contracts on my Time/Sales and I have no way of knowing if it was an opening, or closing trade. That's probably a "got to do it trade" as much as it is/was an emotional trade.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 6:31:27 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

That looks like a single-day record of volume on the NYSE. Easily surpassing 02/09/06 volume of 3.1 billion.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 6:16:34 PM

Without looking, how many shares do YOU think the NYSE and NASDAQ turned. Go ahead... make a guess.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 6:14:16 PM

Good Gravy! Check out these volumes.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 5:55:04 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

I will note this. Today's dollar/bond action has the "flight to quality" look about it.

Today was "roll" for futures.

Now ... I was just out walking the dog (Drake) and for whatever reason, I remember CNBC's Rick Santelli talking about something that happened intra-day regarding an "asset shift" or rebalance trade. I didn't catch his comments word-for-word, but that rebalance comment may also make some sense as it relates to Q2 roll.

Is some foreign capital rotating back to the U.S.? Have to buy dollar's first. Then some Treasuries? Corporate bonds after that? Then some "junk bonds?" Eventually equities? That would be the progression.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 5:12:29 PM

YM06M recap (all sessions) found at this Link ... I tried looking back at 12/15/03 market trade (Monday following Sunday's capture of Saddam Hussein) by coalition forces to see how the markets traded. We don't have archives that far back, perhaps I have them on CD, but markets are emotional. If I remember correctly, there was some "bad news" of some type on 12/15/03 and at least one trader I know said Saddam's capture had no impact relative to the market. I'm not certain that was true.

For me, today is going to be a tough day to read too much into. That is, "key reversal?" On the brink of another leg down like we've observed in some other global indices.

My "Coalition Low" serves only as a near-term benchmark, but I do ask myself this ... "How would it have looked if a major U.S. Index didn't finish in positive territory" after today's news.

Yes, crazy thought perhaps, and I hope my comments from 02:21:57 to the cash close don't go entirely unnoticed.

We've seen equity markets "rally to the close" on certain holidays, where it seems like the MARKET is determined to show a gain, however modest, in order to send some type of message that "it does matter."

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 4:03:28 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPY $125.86 : YM06M 10,915

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 3:58:56 PM

Hedgy's look to be playing the EWJ $12.96 -2.84% for a possible follow-through tomorrow morning.

Jane Fox : 6/8/2006 3:40:49 PM

Tomorrow's economic reports are:
8:30a.m. April Trade Deficit. Consensus: -$65.4 Bln. Previous: $62 Bln.

8:30a.m. May Import Prices. Consensus: +1%. Previous: +2.1%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 3:36:48 PM

YM long cancel order alert from 02:30:36 PM EDT.

YM 10,944

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 3:27:20 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 3:12:25 PM

Raise the flag! INDU 10,940 +0.05%

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 3:11:05 PM

Program Trading Curbs Lifted (alert)

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 3:03:55 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 3:01:08 PM

YM 5-minute interval chart ... added a dark purple "dynamic" at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 2:53:25 PM

I will enter another short on BA if it trades $81.55.

Yes, I want the major indices to finish in the green. Economy or no economy.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 2:49:10 PM

I feel a groundswell of patriotism creeping into the markets.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 2:41:37 PM

Get'n green on the screen

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 2:38:29 PM

Pull your offers for the rest of the day.

Jane Fox : 6/8/2006 2:38:00 PM

Lazear: Economy still on good track despite high gas prices
Economy remains on track for soft landing
Lazear: Q1 inflation uptick won't spill over into future
White House's Lazear: stock market decline not alarming - raises 2006 real GDP growth forecast to 3.6% and 4.7% average unemployment in 2006

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 2:37:13 PM

Swing trade short close out alert for Boeing (BA) $80.35

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 2:36:37 PM

YM06M ... 10,880 ... lurches to afternoon high. Will the MARKET send a message?

I believe so.

Jane Fox : 6/8/2006 2:32:33 PM

Dateline WSJ WASHINGTON -- Recent inflation data are "somewhat troubling" and the Federal Reserve must remain attentive to "danger signs" on price trends, Fed governor Donald Kohn said Thursday.

Responding to questions during his Senate confirmation hearings to become Fed vice chairman, Mr. Kohn also noted that inflation expectations have "crept up just a little."

"It's not a big move, but it is an upward move," Mr. Kohn said in reference to inflation expectations. Mr. Kohn, a Fed governor since 2002, was nominated last month to succeed former Fed Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson.

Mr. Kohn's remarks are in line with recent comments by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and other Fed officials that have expressed discomfort over the latest gains in core inflation.

In a speech Monday, Mr. Bernanke called recent price readings "unwelcome developments," and said officials "will be vigilant to ensure that the recent pattern of elevated monthly core inflation readings is not sustained." Those remarks boosted market expectations that the Fed will increase rates a 17th-straight time to 5.25% when it meets in late June.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 2:30:36 PM

YM long setup alert go long on a trade at 10,851, stop 10,830, target 10,935

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 2:27:58 PM

Answer the call!

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 2:27:33 PM

Hmmm... BHI's session low $78.01

BA's session low $79.01 ... BA $80.11 -1.65% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 2:26:33 PM

Google (GOOG) $386.81 +0.12% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 2:26:11 PM

Baker Hughs (BHI) $82.27 +0.25% Link ... bids green?

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 2:21:57 PM

That "Coalition Low" actually serving up some support since 01:30 PM EDT.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 2:20:43 PM

YM06M 10,865 ... back to DAILY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 2:15:14 PM

If AMR takes out $23.46 it could go, but MWSE has been firm there.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 2:14:01 PM

Selling long AMR $23.37 in personal account.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 1:47:21 PM

CAL $24.47 +0.53% ...

AMR $23.33 -1.85% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 1:37:03 PM

TRIN alert 1.75 ... back down below DAILY R2

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 1:35:06 PM

AMR $23.19 ... If your phone rings... answer it.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 1:33:56 PM

Bullish day trade stop alert for AMR $23.17

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 1:31:54 PM

Bullish day trade raise stop alert ... for AMR $23.27 ... to $23.17

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 1:20:22 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 1:07:45 PM

AMR's 80.9% dynamic at $23.77

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 1:07:11 PM

Bad tick on CAL to $25.79 (80.9% dynamic)

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 1:03:48 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 12:44:40 PM

AMR $23.19 -2.44% ... place stop at $23.08.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 12:41:54 PM

AMR $23.14 ... did tick 200 shares at $23.09, but I think it was an "old friend" of ours trying to manipulate us a bit.

He can eat it for now.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 12:35:29 PM

Adjust stop alert ... to $23.08 for AMR

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 12:31:16 PM

Day trade long alert ... for shares of AMR Corp. (AMR) $23.20 here, stop $23.10, target $23.48.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 12:18:57 PM

NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) 7,882.74 -1.92% ... It would take a trade at 7,957.06 for program trading curbs to be lifted. (80 points from Wednesday's close)

Tab Gilles : 6/8/2006 12:11:10 PM

How big will this correction be? Or is it over? Everything is getting pummeled today.

Here are some charts. Link Link Link Link Link Link Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 12:04:54 PM

Boeing (BA) alert $79.34 -2.60% ... after session low of $79.01.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 12:00:07 PM

Program Trading Curbs In (alert)

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 11:58:21 AM

5-year YIELD ($FVX.X) plunges 6.8 bp to 4.902%

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 11:54:28 AM

I've got a "gut feel" that the FOMC might have a little surprise for us later this month. Not willing to trade that feeling to the bullish side at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 11:52:10 AM

Boeing (BA) $79.76 -2.08% ... session low and edges under WEEKLY S2.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 11:46:33 AM

It is a "garage sale" in the miners

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 11:29:47 AM

YM 10,844 after current session low of 10,800.

I've very glad Zarqawi has been dealt with.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 11:21:31 AM

YM alert 10,841 ... "Coalition Low"

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 11:19:20 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 11:03:34 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 10:58:47 AM

Overstock.com (OSTK) $21.49 -0.50% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 10:58:26 AM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $33.35 -1.24% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 10:57:21 AM

eBay (EBAY) $30.62 -4.04% ... backfills recent gap.

Jane Fox : 6/8/2006 10:42:33 AM

European Central Bank hikes key rate by a quarter point -

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 10:41:19 AM

July Crude (cl06n) trade at $69.50 is double bottom sell signal. Triggers bullish signal reversed.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 10:39:02 AM

Swing trade target alert ... for BHI $79.00

Jane Fox : 6/8/2006 10:36:24 AM


Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 10:31:33 AM

EIA Nat. Gas Storage Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 10:24:38 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 10:02:59 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link ... HMO's have been putting together a nice rally of late.

Jane Fox : 6/8/2006 10:02:45 AM

April wholesale sales ratio matches record low
April wholesale inventory-sales ratio falls to 1.16
April wholesale sales up 1.3%
April wholesale inventories up 0.9% vs 0.5% expected

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 9:48:11 AM

PTR-RS $1.40 x $1.85 with PTR $97.89

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 9:45:03 AM

YM stop alert 10,945

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 9:46:40 AM

Hang Seng ($HSI) Link ... fell 366.44 points, or -2.32% to 15,450.11. Day low of 15,419.42 Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 9:43:21 AM

Petrochina (PTR) $97.07 -4.83% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 9:42:16 AM

There were not a lot of sellers on that decline to 10,894.

YM 10,920

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 9:39:14 AM

Program Trading Levels for Thursday ... HL Camp & Company has their computers set for program buying at $+15.32 and set for program selling at $+12.03.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 9:38:07 AM

On Monday I will "roll" to the September YM contract.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 9:33:05 AM

iShare Brazil (EWZ) $34.55 -2.97% Link ... double bottom sell signal here.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 9:31:14 AM

YM 5-minute interval chart (regular session) found at this Link ... with "Coalition Low" noted.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 9:19:15 AM

YM 5-minute interval chart (all sessions) at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/8/2006 9:18:16 AM

Dateline CNN U.S. military shows video with F-16s dropping two 500-pound bombs that killed Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 9:11:03 AM

YM 10,935

Jeff Bailey : 6/8/2006 9:10:46 AM

Overnight YM Short lower stop alert to 10,945 on the YM.

Jane Fox : 6/8/2006 9:08:59 AM

Dateline WSJ Iraq's beleaguered leadership has eliminated Iraq's highest profile insurgent, Abu Musab Zarqawi, and agreed on two crucial government posts, setting up what could amount to a final opportunity by the Iraqi government and its U.S.-led western backers to gain control of the country's rising sectarian violence and prevent an all-out civil war.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki, flanked by the U.S. Ambassador to Iraq and senior military officials, said Mr. Zarqawi was killed in a joint U.S.-Iraqi military raid in Baquba north of Baghdad, along with seven of his aides. President Bush, in a hastily arranged appearance in the White House Rose Garden at 7:30 this morning, said American special operations forces, with Iraqis "delivered justice to the most wanted terrorist in Iraq" at 6:15 p.m. Baghdad time Wednesday.

Jane Fox : 6/8/2006 8:59:16 AM

Jos. A. Bank (JOSB) shares tumble following Q1 financial report - Q1 earns $5.9m vs $6.7m or 32c vs 38c
JOSB saw weak demand for core merchandise in q1

Jane Fox : 6/8/2006 8:51:49 AM

June 8 (Bloomberg) -- The number of Americans filing first- time applications for state unemployment insurance dropped more than expected to 302,0000 last week, a period shortened by the Memorial Day holiday, a government report showed.

Initial jobless claims dropped by 35,000 in the week that ended June 3, the lowest in two months, from 337,000 a week earlier, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The four- week moving average, a less volatile measure, fell to 327,750 from 333,500.

The Labor Department often has difficulty adjusting the claims figures during holidays, a spokesman said. The jump in claims in previous weeks suggests companies have stepped up firings as rising interest rates and near-record gasoline prices restrain consumer spending and home sales. Payrolls growth may continue to slow after employers added the fewest jobs in seven months in May, economists said.

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