Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
OI Technical Staff : 6/9/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 7:31:08 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles Link ...

Today's Activity

Stocks/Options

Swing trade shorted 1/2 position in shares of Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) at the bid of $14.17, but a sudden price spike on volume had me deciding to close out at $14.25. ($-0.08, or -0.56%).

Swing trade put Take-Two Interactive with two (2) of the TTWO Sep $15 Puts (TUO-UC) for $2.00. Using a stop of $17 in the underyling and targeting $10.75 by summer's end.

Swing trade shorted 1/2 position in Boeing (BA) at $80.50, stop $82.55 and let's target $78.02 instead of $78.00 for now. This target may be subject to lower revision.

YM Futures

I did not profile a YM trade today.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 7:12:56 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 7:09:07 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/9/2006 4:05:53 PM

There are no major economic reports due out on Monday.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 3:40:14 PM

YM06U ... 11,000

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 3:39:02 PM

I need to head out for a meet & eat downtown.

I'll update closing activity this weekend.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 3:37:14 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 3:32:06 PM

Various NYSE, NASDAQ and SPX table of internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 3:17:26 PM

03:06 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 3:08:57 PM

03:06 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 2:58:11 PM

Boeing (BA) $80.93 -0.35% ... smack in the middle of W S2/W S1.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 2:57:10 PM

IBM $78.04 +1.28% ... attemps to reclaim WEEKLY S2 ($78.06).

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 2:38:05 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $22.06 -0.22% ... continues to hold the critical $22.00 level.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 2:33:47 PM

Take-Two (TTWO) $13.94 -16.82% ... softening up.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 2:24:17 PM

DJ- Hamas Military Wing Leflet: Won't Honor Truce With Israel

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 2:09:19 PM

German DAX closed up 80.80, or +1.50%.

World Cup had Germany beating Costa Rica in first-round action by the score of 4:2.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 1:15:56 PM

Swing trade short alert .. for 1/2 position in Boeing (BA) $80.50 here, stop $82.55, target $78.00.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 1:11:25 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/9/2006 1:08:49 PM

Another Ouch! Link

Jane Fox : 6/9/2006 1:07:34 PM

Lakeland Industries' (LAKE) shares off 13.7% to $14.21
* shares down following Q1 report
* Q1 earns $1.5m vs $1.7m
* Q1 earns 29c vs 34c
* Q1 margins hurt by increased new venture costs
* chemical suit sales were weak in April, May

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 1:04:01 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 1:01:25 PM

Canada Govt Deposits Down C$5.743B In June 7 Week

DJ- The Canadian government's Canadian dollar deposits totaled C$5.014 billion (US$4.468 billion) at June 7, down C$5.743 million from a week earlier, and down C$647 million from a year earlier, the Bank of Canada reported in its weekly financial data.

Canadian government securities outstanding at June 7 included:

-treasury bills C$119.700 billion, down C$4.200 billion from a week earlier and down C$2.800 billion from a year earlier;

-other direct and guaranteed securities C$266.821 billion, down C$4.636 billion from a week earlier and down C$8.476 billion from a year earlier;

-Canada Savings Bonds C$17.328 billion, down C$2 million from a week earlier and down C$1.764 billion from a year earlier.

Government of Canada securities held by the Bank of Canada included:

-treasury bills C$16.388 billion, up C$212 million from a week earlier and up C$2.004 billion from a year earlier;

-bonds C$30.215 billion, down C$700 million from a week earlier, but up C$193 million from a year earlier.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 12:22:40 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 12:13:43 PM

TTWO bar chart with h/s pattern at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 12:03:39 PM

Correction alert TUO-UC are $1.95 x $2.05

I quoted offer of $1.60

Filled TUO-UC for $2.00.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 12:00:07 PM

TTWO's earnings/losses ... AP- Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 11:56:48 AM

TTWO's PnF chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 11:56:05 AM

BIIIIG short position on TTWO, but me thinks shorts are right on this one.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 11:55:37 AM

TTWO $14.13

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 11:55:20 AM

Swing trade put alert for two (2) of the Take-Two Interactive TTWO Sep $15 Puts (TUO-UC) for $1.60.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 11:42:34 AM

TTWO $14.23 ... that spike to $14.71 on volume of 245,988 may have been option related, but not certain.

Short from $14.17 officially closed at $14.25.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 11:36:12 AM

TTWO $14.26 ...

Jane Fox : 6/9/2006 11:26:58 AM

Link Link Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 11:26:29 AM

TTWO $14.23 ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 11:24:35 AM

What the heck ? sudden volume burst had stock jumping to $14.71 ... TWO $14.26.

Jane Fox : 6/9/2006 11:24:25 AM

The rest of the story from McMillan Rather, one must wait for the averages to roll over and head down, in this case, before calling a 'buy' signal. In fact, some of the worst declines in history have taken place in a market that was already oversold. So, keep patient and don't anticipate a buy signal from these still-bearish indicators.

Market breadth was extremely oversold a week and a half ago. That contributed mightily to the rally that took place. This week, breadth is far less oversold. In fact, neither breadth oscillator has reached 'official' oversold status yet this week. This is a perfect example of how a short-term, essentially meaningless rally, can alleviate an oversold condition and pave the way for the bears to wreak further havoc -- as they did this week.

Finally, volatility ($VIX) has been -- well.... volatile! $VIX's daily range has exceeded 2 points a couple of times and it has repeatedly pushed higher all week. By the way, Friday's high on $VIX was 20.80 not the 22.59 posted erroneously by the CBOE. The trend of $VIX is higher, and we think that is bearish.

There was a late-day rally on Thursday. Bulls are asking if the worse is now over. I doubt it. When the market gets oversold, sharp but short-lived rallies are possible at any time. These have the effect of creating a volatile, whipsawing environment within an overall bearish trend. We still expect $SPX to complete its first 9% correction in over three years, which it would accomplish by trading down to 1207.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 11:23:27 AM

Alert TTWO Close out $14.25

Jane Fox : 6/9/2006 11:22:20 AM

Now we are back up again and TICK just hit +1000.

Jane Fox : 6/9/2006 11:21:46 AM

McMillan's weekly commentary In not more than a couple of weeks this market turned from a lumbering beast that had little volatility and had very little follow-through into a dynamic, volatile maniac that can whipsaw traders in the blink of an eye. For most of the previous 6 months -- and really, even the past 3 years if you stretch a bit -- volatility was very low, and the bulls pretty much had their way with things. All minor declines were buying opportunities and even the slightest spike in volatility was a buy signal. Those halcyon days are gone (good riddance, I say so do I!!!!) and the playing field now belongs to the nimble -- or at least to those who understand option trading.

$SPX rallied last week after a massive oversold condition had occurred. However, once traders had a chance to contemplate things over this past weekend, they became sellers -- with a vengeance. $SPX peaked near the resistance area of 1290, and also where it had bumped into the declining 20-day moving average. Then $SPX dropped very sharply for 3-1/2 days, dropping all the way to 1235. This violated the yearly lows at 1245, among other things. A late rally on Thursday brought $SPX back above that 1245 on a closing basis. However, we think the damage -- technically, psychologically, and monetarily -- has been done, and that the lows have not yet been seen.

The equity-only put-call ratios have exploded to new highs while this bearish action was taking place (see Figures 2 and 3). They are clearly oversold, as they stand at near-record highs. However, we have always warned against interpreting any fixed level as a buy or sell signal on these ratios...

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 11:20:39 AM

Bearish swing trade short alert ... for 1/2 position in Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) $14.17 -15.45% here, stop $14.65, target $13.55

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 11:13:30 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/9/2006 11:11:46 AM

TRIN is back into its PDR and rising. VIX remains below its PDR.

Jane Fox : 6/9/2006 11:09:18 AM

Ouch! Link

Jane Fox : 6/9/2006 11:08:17 AM

Pozen (POZN) shares drop 49% to $7.08
Glaxosmithkline (GSK) shares down 1% to $54.81
* POZN and GSK get approvable letter for Trexima
* letter contains conditions
* may need more trexima safety studies
* to request meeting w/ fda on trexima
* POZN shares plumb new 52-week low of $6.55

Jane Fox : 6/9/2006 11:04:49 AM

BUSH: WAR NOT WON WITH ZARQAWI'S DEATH Duh!

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 11:04:41 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/9/2006 10:49:17 AM

NYSE MOST ACTIVE STOCKS: TXN EWJ LU PFE GLW

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 10:49:02 AM

Fed's Bernanke (comments at MIT) DJ - US Productivity Revival Still has "Legs"

Productivity Gains "Auger Well" For U.S. Economy

Jane Fox : 6/9/2006 10:49:02 AM

NASDAQ MOST ACTIVES: INTC SUNW LVLT JDSU MSFT

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 10:33:59 AM

YM06M (Daily Pivot corrected) found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 10:25:41 AM

Disregard alert ... YM06M chart at 09:47:15 and DAILY Pivot Retracement. I used the YM06U levels on the chart.

BUT ... look at it. "Daily Pivot" provides the morning resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 10:21:07 AM

YM06U 5-minute interval chart at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/9/2006 10:10:15 AM

FED FUND FUTURES SEE 84% CHANCE OF 0.25% RATE HIKE IN JUNE

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 10:03:30 AM

10:01 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/9/2006 10:00:53 AM

Genelabs' (GNLB) shares up almost 9% to $2.01
* shares rise after forecast of mid-year cash level
* expects to have about $15m in cash as of June 30
* cash sufficient to fund operations until 2008
* gets non-compliance notice from nasdaq exchange
* notice related to share price below $1 for 30 days
* to regain compliance if stock above $1 for 10 days


Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 9:47:15 AM

YM06m 5-minute interval chart at this Link ... add ~80pts to get YM06U

Jane Fox : 6/9/2006 9:39:27 AM

NYSE ADVANCERS OUTNUMBER DECLINERS 7 TO 5

NASDAQ ADVANCERS OUTNUMBER DECLINERS 14 TO 9

Jane Fox : 6/9/2006 8:55:01 AM

Dateline WSJ Imports grew by 0.7% to $179.08 billion, the highest purchase level ever except for $181.04 billion in January. March imports totaled $177.80 billion.

Purchases of cars and parts made abroad climbed by $406 million. Purchases of industrial materials from overseas grew by $2.4 billion.

The volume of crude oil imports decreased to 293.84 million barrels, down from 312.48 million. Yet the average price of a barrel of crude rose by $4.56 to $56.82 -- the second highest level ever; the highest cost came last September, at $57.42 a barrel. The value of crude oil imports climbed in April to $16.70 billion from $16.33 billion in March.

The nation's bill for all energy-related petroleum products rose to $23.40 billion from March's $21.52 billion.

Consumer goods imports -- including pharmaceutical preparations -- tumbled by $1.27 billion. Imports of capital goods such as excavating machinery increased by $100 million. Imports of foods and beverages decreased by $144 million.

Exports fell by 0.2% to $115.66 billion in April from $115.94 billion in March. Sales decreased by $177 million for capital goods, including civilian aircraft and medicinal equipment. Exports fell by $421 million for consumer goods, like household appliances. Sales of industrial materials such as organic chemicals were up $49 million, and sales of autos and parts rose $86 million. But exports of foods and beverages decreased by $28 million.

Jane Fox : 6/9/2006 8:54:10 AM

Dateline WSJ WASHINGTON -- The U.S. trade deficit, as expected, resumed rising during April as higher oil prices, purchases of foreign cars and lower exports exerted upward pressure.

The U.S. deficit in international trade of goods and services increased to $63.43 billion from a revised $61.86 billion in March, the Commerce Department said Friday. March's shortfall was previously estimated at $62.00 billion.

The April trade deficit was smaller than Wall Street predicted. A Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC survey of 23 economists had forecast a deficit of $65.5 billion.

The trade gap rose 2.5% after falling two straight months. U.S. exports slipped and imports rose to the second highest on record.

Deficits with major trading partners were mixed.

The deficit with China expanded to $17.03 billion from $15.57 billion in March. The trade gap with Canada increased to $6.15 billion from $5.29 billion. The deficit with Japan rose to $7.80 billion from $7.58 billion.

Jane Fox : 6/9/2006 8:34:43 AM

Dateline WSJ Securities regulators have launched an investigation into how short sellers may have played a role in the steep decline in the stock price of Internet phone carrier Vonage Holdings Corp. since its initial public offering last month, people familiar with the situation say.

The regulatory unit of the New York Stock Exchange sent a letter to Wall Street securities firms yesterday asking questions about how the dealers may have facilitated short sales, according to someone who had a copy of the letter. The letter asked that the information be provided no later than Wednesday, June 21.

Because some short sellers are effectively betting that a stock will decline, companies sometimes blame them when their share price slides. A spokeswoman for Vonage, based in Holmdel, N.J., declined to comment on any short selling in its stock. In a short sale, a trader or investor sells borrowed stock in hopes of buying it back later at a lower price.

Jane Fox : 6/9/2006 8:32:59 AM

May non-fuel import prices rise 0.7%
May non-petroleum import prices rise 0.6%
May petroleum import prices rise 5.2%
May import prices rise 1.6% vs. 0.8% expected

April trade gap with china $17.0 bln vs $14.8 yr ago
March trade gap rev $61.9 bln vs $62.0 prev est
April trade gap below consensus of $64.8 bln
April trade gap widens 2.5% to $63.4 bln


Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 3:34:37 AM

Crazy chart of the DIA I've shown before Link ... Once it closed BELOW a level, what CAN'T it do?

Hasn't been able to close 2-levels above.

Today's low was a 61.8% retracement of the October-May run.

Oooo... that reminds me. Last night I was looking at the various bullish % indicators for the major indices. Thought to myself, there could be one heck of a setup for a fall rally.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 3:23:27 AM

Mr. Cramer hasn't mentioned Link for a couple of weeks now has he? Saw him kissing his portrait on TV this evening.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 3:20:11 AM

Thought we could have gotten more of a kick out of Link than was found in Link today.

Jeff Bailey : 6/9/2006 3:07:30 AM

A bit surprising. They've got their finger in just about every piece of the global economic pie Link

Market Monitor Archives