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Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2006 1:23:20 AM

Major Market Bullish % Measures Table found at this Link (Source: Dorsey/Wright & Assoc)

Stockcharts.com's bullish % chart links







I've been using Dorsey's bullish % readings since earlier this spring for quality control purposes. Their supply/demand charts do NOT adjust a stock's price based on distribution of dividend.

StockCharts.com provides FREE point and figure charts, but they do adjust a stock's price for dividends, thus there may be a discrepancy in the point and figure chart itself (especially for stocks that pay larger dividends) and the resulting major market bullish % charts and measures.

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2006 12:47:06 AM

NYSE NH/NL Ratio Chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/16/2006 12:46:53 AM

NASDAQ NH/NL Ratio Chart with "f"ive day and 10-day measures at this Link

I'd be very hesitant in calling a bottom at this point. Five-day making new lows.

OI Technical Staff : 6/15/2006 9:59:59 PM

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Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 8:49:10 PM

I will be out of the office for the better part of the session on Friday, but do hope to return by 02:00 PM EDT.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 8:46:28 PM

Index Pivot Matrix for Friday at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 7:51:39 PM

YM 5-minute interval chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 7:37:11 PM

YM Pivot Matrix for Friday at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 7:19:29 PM

YM recap 5-minute interval chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 6:58:04 PM

QQQQ Option Montage (close) found at this Link

Has the look of a $38.56 settle, but traders should keep an eye on the Dn/UpTick Vol for the $39 Calls tomorrow.

The assumption many make, which isn't always correct, is that CALL/PUT open interest is LONG and not NAKED. When it is NAKED and it unwinds, BIG MOVES can be experienced.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 6:32:03 PM

Well, it would appear that some of the "firming" in Asian markets (i.e. EWJ) helped put a recovery bid in markets for he U.S., especially the NQ/NDX/QQQQ and perhaps the SOX.X?

Will continue to test from here, but EWJ a good benchmark to begin working from.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 5:48:12 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity


Swing trade close out the 1/2 bullish position in the iShares Japan (EWJ) at the bid of $12.85 ($+0.48, or +3.88%).

Swing trade shorted 1/2 position in Boeing (BA) at the bid of $83.70, but was stopped out at $85.05 ($-1.35, or -1.61%)

YM Futures

I did not profile a YM trade today.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 5:21:54 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 5:20:50 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 5:05:54 PM

Oracle (ORCL) alert ... Company expects to top Q4 forecast.

Reuters Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 4:43:23 PM

Red Hat (RHAT) $26.09 +3.32% ... $26.09 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 4:42:42 PM

Google (GOOG) $391.00 +1.71% ... $391.10 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 4:40:49 PM

Oracle (ORCL) $13.68 +3.71% ... light volume bid to $14.40 in extended.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 4:36:02 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $22.04 +0.73% .... $21.95 extended

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 4:35:33 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) Mr. Gates' Transition To Start in 2 years

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 4:34:22 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) Mr. Gates Continues To Be Chairman, To Advise On Key Devt. Projects

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 4:33:36 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) Technology Chief Ray Ozzie To Be Software Architect Chief

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 4:32:59 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) Mr. Gates To Spend Time On Global Health, Education Work

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 4:32:21 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) alert Bill Gates To Transition Out of Daily Role In Company

Jane Fox : 6/15/2006 4:23:11 PM

Economic Reports tomrrow include:

8:30a.m. First-Quarter Current Account Deficit. Consensus: -$224.0 Bln. Previous: -$224.9 Bln.

9:45a.m. Mid-June Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Consensus: 80. Previous: 79.1.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 4:23:00 PM

No, I'll have to go look.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 4:21:29 PM

Argentina Q1 GDP up 8.6% On Year, Up 1.2% On Q4

DJ- Argentina continued to see robust growth during the first quarter as the nation heads into a fourth straight year of expansion.

The national statistics agency, INDEC, said Thursday that gross domestic product rose 8.6% on year in the first quarter of 2006 and climbed 1.2% from the fourth quarter of 2005.

The quarterly results, released as a preliminary estimate by INDEC, were slightly below the median forecast in a central bank survey of economists, which predicted 8.8% year-on-year growth for the first quarter. The first quarter figure came in on par with an estimate implied by a proxy monthly measure for March out last month. That indicator, an index of economic activity, was also up 8.6% on year on an accumulated basis in the first three months of the year.

Jane Fox : 6/15/2006 4:17:30 PM

Jeff that TRIN is a trickly little begger and you just never know with it. Did you see my posts on the other side of SPX charts when the TRIN hit levels this low?

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 4:15:06 PM

Yes it did Jane! And I thought DAILY S1 of 0.38 was "overbought" intra-day.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 4:14:02 PM

BCM- Pacholder High Yield (PHF) excluding monthly dividends ($0.075/share), up 9.17% for 2006.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 4:08:25 PM

CNBC- Dow Industrials Back Into Positive Territory For 2006

Jane Fox : 6/15/2006 4:07:48 PM

Oh my GOSH! TRIN hit a low of 0.18.

Jane Fox : 6/15/2006 4:07:00 PM

Nasdaq Composite prelim close: 2,144, up 58 points

DOW Industrials prelim close: 11,010, up 192 points

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 3:53:05 PM

TRIN 0.21

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 3:52:21 PM

BA $84.71 +3.29% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 3:51:30 PM

YM 11,103

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 3:51:18 PM

I don't need the BA hedge anymore Jane!

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 3:49:22 PM

May have gone to the hanger one to many times.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 3:48:37 PM

Swing trade short stop alert ... on BA $85.05

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 3:47:57 PM

BA $85.01

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 3:47:21 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,256.64 : YM 11,118

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 3:44:03 PM

Boeing (BA) $84.93 +3.56% ... did tick $85.00.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 3:42:21 PM

Amerco (UHAL) $93.15 +7.26%

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 3:41:57 PM

Flooded with upside alerts

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 3:41:37 PM

SPY $126.10 +2.09% ... "Max pain" 128.00

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 3:40:42 PM

OEX 573.38 +1.67% ... "Max Pain" tabulation 570 (5-point increments)

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 3:35:57 PM

YM 11,088

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 3:35:19 PM

Max Pain Delivered alert DIA $110.15

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 3:28:08 PM

Overstock.com (OSTK) $20.04 +0.90% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 3:27:39 PM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $35.05 +4.06% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 3:24:09 PM

Boeing (BA) $84.92 +3.52% ... moves to high of the day. Month for that matter.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 3:20:00 PM

eBay (EBAY) $30.65 -0.03% ... struggles to get green.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 3:15:50 PM

03:00 Internals found a this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 3:12:12 PM

ICE $49.16 +4.59% ... high tick has been $49.99.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 3:03:53 PM

Curbs In Alert NYSE Composite (NYA.X) easily above the 160.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 3:02:12 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 2:59:19 PM

Chicago Merc (CME) $447.00 +1.45% ... either side of WEEKLY Pivot (447.18) today.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 2:57:29 PM

EWJ $12.97 +2.93% ... did kiss $13.00.

Not going to look the gift horse in the mouth, but would have liked to have held the long, sold the $13.00 into tomorrow.

Will have another shot at a pullback I think.

Markets need to build a base.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 2:52:38 PM

Boy does this look OPEX related. In May it was bulls that felt some pain. In June, it is some bears that are dealt the blow.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 2:50:01 PM

QQQQ Option Montage (Updated) at this Link

Montage from earlier this morning Link

Up/Dn look to be leveling out though.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 2:44:52 PM

QQQQ $38.57 +2.49% ... NQ traders that thought QQQQ $38 was going to hold, might be in trouble here.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 2:43:36 PM

VLO "Max Pain" for June still $60.00 ($2.50 increments)

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 2:42:24 PM

Valero Energy (VLO) $59.71 +4.02% ... sets up for test of that $60.00 strike.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 2:32:13 PM

YM 11,018

BA $84.13

CME $447.16

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 2:31:29 PM

TRIN 0.39 .... sits right on DAILY S1. If there's any type of selling to come in, this might be the indicator. Can always go DAILY S2.

Jane Fox : 6/15/2006 2:30:43 PM

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Energy prices are likely to stay high and how much they push up the prices of other goods and services bears close watching, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday.

He warned anew that the central bank will be vigilant against inflation.

"The cumulative increases in energy and commodity prices have been large enough that they could account for some of the recent pickup in core inflation," Bernanke said. When measuring core inflation, volatile energy and food prices are removed so that economists can get a better picture of how other prices are acting.

Just as important as inflation numbers is the inflation mind-set of investors, businesses and consumers, Bernanke suggested. The fear: If people and companies think inflation will get worse a year from now, they can change their behavior in ways that make it a self-fulfilling prophesy.

Jane Fox : 6/15/2006 2:29:00 PM


Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 2:24:38 PM

EWJ $12.95 +2.77% ... set to challenge $13 strike.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 2:22:24 PM

This is looking like a trend day, higher to the close

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 2:21:44 PM

IBM (alert) $77.99 +0.36% ... reversing losses, high of the day and challenging Monday's high ($78.09)

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 2:21:38 PM

Fed's Kroszner DJ- Mkts Playing Bigger Role In Exchange Rates

Inflation Forecasts Below Historical Average

Must Be Mindful Of Costs Of Inflation

Must Assess Variety Of Inflation Gauges

Less Comfortable With Some Inflation Gauges

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 2:13:48 PM

BIX.X (alert) $370.53 +0.68% ... moves to high of the day.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 2:08:55 PM

DJ- Columbian Stocks Rise 15.9%, Sharpest Daily Jump Ever

The Colombian stock index registered its sharpest increase ever on Thursday morning as investors are buying now to take advantage of current low prices.

The Colombian benchmark index was up 14.34% at 7,543.31 at 12:06 a.m. The index plunged 18% the first two days of the week before starting to recover Wednesday, when it gained 6.7%.

"The market had entered a period of exaggerated panic," said Alvaro Camaro, a partner at the local investment firm Valores Gomez Asociados SA. "A lot of shares were much lower than their real worth, so investors with long-term vision went out to take advantage of the bargain."

Additionally, local investors are optimistic that foreigners will pour money in Colombia after the government lifted restrictions on foreign investors Wednesday.

"We cannot say the increase is due to foreigners already coming to Colombia, but local investors are confident they will come," said Fernando Restrepo, a stock trader with Medellin-based Suvalor SA brokerage.

The Colombian government on Tuesday announced it will lift the existing limits for foreign investors, starting Wednesday.

Some fund managers and traders have said that eliminating foreign capital controls in the midst of a market downturn may push foreign investors to leave the country, or at least increase volatility.

"The government's move was a factor that reassured investors as it showed the government is ready to act to avoid the markets to go out of control," Camaro said.

The recent stock decline didn't reflect what is happening to the Colombian economy, he added.

Restrepo said rising prices in other markets such as Brazil, India, the Czech Republic and Russia contributed to the index increase in Colombia on Thursday morning, Camaro said.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 2:05:08 PM

Fed's Bernanke (comments)

DJ- Inflation Expectations 'Bear Watching'

Energy May Account For Some Core Price Rise

Mkt-Based Inflation Expectations Down 'Somewhat'

High Energy Costs Trim US Productive Capacity

Oil Prices To Increase US Current Acct Gap

Energy A 'Noticeable Drag' On Income,Spending

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 1:42:37 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 1:34:03 PM

IBM $77.33 -0.48% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 1:32:59 PM

YM 10,961

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 1:32:32 PM

Boeing (BA) (alert) $83.70 +2.06% ... back where we shorted.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 1:30:40 PM

Sunoco (SUN) $63.53 -0.07% ... slips red

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 1:27:03 PM

Chicago Merc (CME) $443.67 +0.68% ... retraces 80.9% of intra-day range.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 1:25:05 PM

EIA Weekly Nat. Gas and Various Oil-based Product Inventory Table found at this Link ... Strong bid for Nat. Gas today. Last year at this time we were seeing builds of about 85 Bcf from the looks of things.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 1:14:50 PM


Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 1:14:27 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 1:03:08 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/15/2006 12:55:58 PM

Hedge funds post worst month since October '05 -

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 12:42:48 PM

FERC Approves Five Liquid Nat. Gas Terminal Projects

Jane Fox : 6/15/2006 12:41:39 PM


Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 12:40:10 PM

Philly Fed measure (notes): Negative readings indicate a contraction in activity, while positive one denote expansion.


Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 12:25:17 PM

Naturellement pas Jane! Je ne jurerais jamais ` un ami au nord.

Of course not Jane! I would never swear at a friend to the north.

Jane Fox : 6/15/2006 12:18:16 PM

Did you just swear at me Jeff :)

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 12:15:58 PM

Su recepcion Jane.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 12:12:17 PM

Boeing (BA) $84.22 +2.69% ... after noon pullback low of, of, of... $84.01.

Jane Fox : 6/15/2006 12:02:48 PM


Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 12:03:27 PM

Encouraging e-mail from two subscribers that converted adjustable rate mortgage to 30-year fixed.

EXCELLENT RISK management in my opinion.

My "refinance you mortage" call last summer was better, but not everyone was here for that one. 06/03/05 Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 11:58:40 AM

July Fed Fund futures (ff06n) 94.74 ... roughly 102% probability of 25 bp hike at June meeting.

Jane Fox : 6/15/2006 11:57:44 AM


Jane Fox : 6/15/2006 11:56:12 AM

5 minutes to June Philly Fed index.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 11:55:51 AM

QQQQ Option Montage found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/15/2006 11:55:30 AM

Jeff Merci Beaucoup to your Max pain post.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 11:47:59 AM

QQQQ "Max Pain" still tabulated at $39 ($1 increments).

Yesterday, Marc noted a surge in action on the QQQQ $38 Calls with the assumption it was fresh call buying. I didn't get a chance to check open interest, but be al_rt. If it was NAKED Call traders buying back at lower price, then $39 in play.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 11:39:36 AM

Hang Seng ($HSI) close up 187 points, or 1.23% at 15,435 Link ... Low/High 15,356/15,455

So X's to 15,450

Jane Fox : 6/15/2006 11:39:13 AM

Jeff do you think you could answer this

Dear MM What's the max pain tomorrow for the Q's. Thanks S

Jane Fox : 6/15/2006 11:35:47 AM

OCR could be a good buy here IF it breaks the resistance at the blue trendline and the magenta 20EMA. Notice the positive MACD divergence as well. Link

Jane Fox : 6/15/2006 11:32:01 AM

* Omnicare (OCR) shares surge 10.3% to $46.26 on volume 2m vs daily average 2.34m
* OCR up after agency's clarification of contract stance
* Morgan Stanley calls CMS guidance 'a positive' for OCR
* JP Morgan reiterates overweight rating on OCR

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 11:30:16 AM


Yesterday's tally was 1:25

Jane Fox : 6/15/2006 11:29:21 AM

* SP upgrades Dyncorp Corporate (DCP) credit rating to bb- was 'b+'
* SP removes DCP from creditwatch
* SP rating outlook on DCP is stable

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 11:28:02 AM

IBM $77.50 -0.27% ... WEEKLY Pivot $78.35.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 11:26:53 AM

BA $84.32 +2.81% ... above WEEKLY R1 ($83.25)

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 11:26:20 AM

GRMN $92.36 +2.99% ... right at its WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 11:22:16 AM

Heck ... today's low $82.01 matching yesterday's close to the penny.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 11:21:34 AM

Swing trade bearish stop adjustment alert ... for Boeing (BA) $84.67 +3.24% ... adjust stop to $85.05 from $85.00.

Never know for sure, but remembering all the $0.01 trades of late.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 11:19:58 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Wednesday's Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/15/2006 11:13:53 AM


Jane Fox : 6/15/2006 11:13:15 AM


Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 11:04:16 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 10:59:03 AM

EWJ $12.86 +2.14% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 10:57:42 AM

Chicago Merc (CME) $450.00 $2.12% ... today's trade at $448 is 3-box reversal back up.

Jane Fox : 6/15/2006 10:56:43 AM

China Techfaith (CNTF) shares up 6.1% to $13.98 on volume 216,442 vs daily average 254,700
* shares rise after co. names new CFO Christopher Holbert to CFO post replacing acting CFO Peter Wei

Jane Fox : 6/15/2006 10:54:23 AM

* Home Solutions (HOM) stock approved for nasdaq listing
* shares to begin nasdaq trade june 27 under symbol 'hsoa'
* shares up 9.4% at $7.40 on amex

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 10:46:24 AM

Thanks for the "hedge" Jane! BA $84.58 +3.13% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 10:39:53 AM

Boeing (BA) $84.33 +2.84% ... retraces 61.8% of its May high close/recent low close.

Jane Fox : 6/15/2006 10:38:33 AM

BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) -- The U.S. military said Thursday the man claiming to be the new al-Qaida in Iraq leader is Abu Ayyub al-Masri, an Egyptian with ties to Osama bin Laden's deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri.

Maj. Gen. William Caldwell, a U.S. military spokesman in Baghdad, said al-Masri apparently is the same person that al-Qaida in Iraq identified in a Web posting last week as its new leader _ Abu Hamza al-Muhajer, a nom de guerre. Al-Muhajer claimed to have succeeded Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who was killed in a June 7 U.S. airstrike, and vowed to avenge him in threatening Web statements in recent days.

Jane Fox : 6/15/2006 10:32:27 AM


Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 10:31:55 AM

EIA Weekly Nat. Gas Storage Table found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/15/2006 10:31:07 AM

* JMP recommends reducing exposure to housing sector
* JMP cuts DR Horton price target to $30 from $43
* JMP cuts Lennar price target to $50 from $67
* JMP cuts Meritage homes price target to $56 from $82

Jane Fox : 6/15/2006 10:31:58 AM


Jane Fox : 6/15/2006 10:23:51 AM


Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 10:17:36 AM

Bullish swing trade target alert ... for the ishares Japan (EWJ) $12.86 +2.06%

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 10:12:06 AM

Swing trade short alert for 1/2 position in Boeing (BA) $83.70 +2.06% here, stop $85.00, target $80.55.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 10:09:17 AM

Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) closed up 161 points, or 1.13% at 14,470. Link

High/Low was 14,593/14,418

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 10:04:45 AM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert ... for the iShares Japan (EWJ) $12.80 +1.58% ... to $12.74.

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 10:03:23 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 9:57:02 AM

TTWO $13.02 ... TUO-UC $2.50 x $2.70

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 9:56:27 AM

CME $444.90 ... CMJ-SO $9.70 x $10.00

Jeff Bailey : 6/15/2006 9:55:35 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/15/2006 9:54:40 AM


Jane Fox : 6/15/2006 9:44:58 AM

Fed fund futures see odds of second rate hike increasing.

Jane Fox : 6/15/2006 9:21:31 AM

Futures did not react to the 9:15 econ report.

Jane Fox : 6/15/2006 9:20:08 AM

* May capacity utilization 81.7% vs 81.9% in April
* May industrial production decline first since jan.
* May Industrial Production down 0.1% vs up 0.2 forecast

Jane Fox : 6/15/2006 9:05:14 AM

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Manufacturing activity in New York State factories rose in June to the highest level since March, with a steep rise in the prices paid component -- a sign of inflation pressures -- the New York Federal Reserve said on Thursday.

The New York Fed's "Empire State" index general factory conditions index rose to 29.01 in June from a revised 12.94 in May. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a June reading of 11.0.

New orders rose to 25.81 in June from a revised 16.22 in May. The prices paid component rose to 52.89 from a revised 43.09 in May.

Jane Fox : 6/15/2006 9:01:13 AM

Dateline WSJ The third month of faster-than-expected price increases raised pressure on the Federal Reserve to back up its tough rhetoric on inflation with higher interest rates, despite more signs the economy is cooling.

Two reports yesterday underscored the dilemma facing central-bank policy makers. The economy appears to be slowing due to higher energy prices and the impact of the cumulative four-percentage-point increase in short-term rates. A slowing economy would normally encourage the Fed to place its interest-rate increases on hold and perhaps eventually cut rates, but the slowing occurs as inflation edges above the zone where most Fed officials are comfortable.

That isn't unusual: typically after the Fed raises rates, the economy, with a lag, slows, and with an additional lag, that weaker economy alleviates inflation pressure. In recent weeks, however, a stream of tough anti-inflation rhetoric from Fed officials coupled with yesterday's price report have convinced markets that short-term interest rates will be raised to 5.25% from 5% at the June 28-29 meeting. Moreover, futures markets now see a roughly 50% probability that the Fed will raise rates again to 5.5% at its Aug. 8 meeting.

Consumer prices rose 0.4% in May from April, the Labor Department said yesterday, and were up 4.2% from a year earlier. More ominously, "core" prices, which exclude volatile food and energy, rose 0.3% in May, the third consecutive increase of that magnitude, and were up 2.4% from a year earlier. That's the highest rate of core inflation in more than a year.

At the same time, the Fed released a report that found economic activity has softened in recent weeks. "Economic activity continued to expand from mid-April to early June, but there were some signs of deceleration," the Fed's "beige book" said.

The beige book, a roundup of anecdotes on business conditions from the Fed's 12 districts, said consumer spending growth "had slowed" and "residential real-estate markets continued to cool across the country....Some districts mentioned that sales were slowing or weaker than anticipated at discount stores or to lower-income customers," perhaps because of higher gasoline prices.

Jane Fox : 6/15/2006 8:48:33 AM

WE now await the 9:15 May Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Report

Jane Fox : 6/15/2006 8:46:04 AM

Bear Stearns (BSC) Q2 revenue rose 33% to $2.5b vs %1.9b * Q2 first call estimate $3.12 * Q2 capital markets revenue rose 40% to $2b

Jane Fox : 6/15/2006 8:43:49 AM

Illinois Tool Works (ITW) 3-months oper revenue rose 8% * reiterates q2 earnings view at 76c-79c * expects q2 base revenue growth 4.2%-6.2%

Jane Fox : 6/15/2006 8:36:50 AM

* Weekly Jobless Claims fall to 4-month low ,
* Continuing Jobless Claims rise 15,000 to 2.425mln,
* 4-week avg. Initial claims fall 12,250 to 315.750,
* Weekly Initial Jobless Claims fall 8,000 to 295,000,

Jane Fox : 6/15/2006 8:34:38 AM

* June Empire State New Orders Index 21.8 vs 16.2 in May
* June Empire State Employment Index 5.1 vs 9.7 in May
* June Empire State Index well above consensus 12.5
* June Empire State Index 29.0 vs rev 12.9 in May

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