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Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 2:38:30 AM

Frontier Oil (FTO) on 06/02/06 I profiled a BULLISH trade in FTO. Here's a bar chart with 21-day SMA (blue) Link and my bullish profile would have been juuuust under that 21-day SMA on that "kiss" at roughly $57.50. Simple test right now is 21-day SMA.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 2:32:51 AM

Note: On June 2, the GLD traded up from $62.53 to as high as $63.59.

If you quickly browsed the 06/02/06 MM then at least be aware of my trade blotter and action in GG Link .

Point here is to try and undestand the past, see what happened. That provides a pretty good test for future SIMILARITY or DIVERGENCE.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 2:19:47 AM

Index Pivot Matrix for Thursday at this Link

At 01:30:24 AM I ask a simple question. If you said "the dollar" then perhaps the correlations at DAILYS2/WEEKLYS1 and DAILYR2/WEEKLY Pivot are of interest. Maybe we tie "island" with gold?

I'll say this now and test it later. If the dollar doesn't budge and gold trades up $20/oz tomorrow, I will tell you the action is short-covering.

I commented again today about "VIX 14". I noted this reading on 06/02/06 Link in the 11:00 Internals. Jane via Mr. McMillan also commented on VIX later in the session. Nope, not an exact correlation at DAILYS2/WEEKLYS1, but we know that may be a key level/reading tomorrow. I would NOT equate VIX 14 with QQQQ $40, but equate VIX 14 with an influential level of sentiment.

I'm not throwing my "weak dollar seemed to become the concern for equity selling in early May" out the door. I will confess that I'm a bit surprised that the majors didn't close right at their highs of the session.

Remember 6/02/06 when the QQQQ kissed $40.00 to the penny, then went on to make new lows? Today's trade at $38.99 shouldn't go unnoticed and DAILYR1/WEEKLYR1 correlation provides a good test for strength.

Tab Gilles : 6/22/2006 1:39:28 AM

"Gold is the only bull market driven by mass fear instead of mass greed," says James Dines of Belvedere's The Dines Letter.

Tab Gilles : 6/22/2006 1:39:17 AM

Two sector funds I also like ar the Profund ENPIX for oil and the UAPIX for the Russell 2000. Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 1:30:24 AM

What's one financial instrument that has shown the ability to provide a catalyst for up/down price movement in gold?

Tab Gilles : 6/22/2006 1:20:32 AM

$GOLD Link 3 reasons why prices for both oil and gold are headed higher: North Korea, Iran, and Saudi Arabia.

GLD etf Link


SLV Link Another commodity stock I like is RIO Link Companhia Vale do Rio Doce engages in the mining and production of ferrous and nonferrous metals, and aluminum-related operations primarily in Brazil.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 1:15:54 AM

QCharts Futures: With futures running roughly 24 hours/6-days per week, change your "Interval" setting from Daily to 720 to view an approximate floor trade session.

Tab Gilles : 6/22/2006 1:05:25 AM

$NALOW daily and weekly On the daily chart the NALOW has reached 250, yet in the weekly it hasn't, although back in October it only reached 100. Link Link

So, is the $NDX/$COMPQ a buy?

Weekly $NASI has not yet reverse.

Link Link

$GSO Link

Software stock Citrix Software Link

$GHA Link

Hardware stock RIMM Link

$SOX Link

WFR Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 1:03:47 AM

iShares Japan (EWJ) ... I'd argue that any ETF representing a foreign market that does not trade from 09:30 AM EDT to 04:00 PM EDT is going to be "gappy." StockCharts.com does "screen" each day for top/bottom island reversals, but from what I saw earlier today, they were all penny stocks.

Still, the EWJ pattern is an example of an island bottom.

Point and figure (supply/demand) chartists will perhaps associate the # of days being similar to the "size of the base" when a stock breaks up, or down from a sizeable base. The BIGGER the base from which the break comes, can often times find a BIGGER and QUICKER move as suddenly, everyone tries to get on the right side of the trade.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 12:39:00 AM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) and comments regarding potential island reversal at this Link

I'm using the GLD as it is the security I profiled today. At this point, we can NOT say "an island reversal has unfolded." But we can be al_rt to the implications.

Understand, the GLD is NOT a futures contract, but understand how the futures contract is valued and why FUTURES traders are on the al_rt.

The supply/demand dynamic of a commodity (lumber, cattle, corn, wheat, copper, gold) can be shocking.

When gold lurched above $600/oz., there were some that thought $700 was achievable by year-end. Gold went there in less than a month. Then it fell just as quick.

Why? Imagine (some don't have to imagine) that you were short/long and the trade began to move AGAINST you.

Note the conventional use of retracement and how the GLD could not hold the close above $58.337. As miniscule as that may be, a BULL must still be cautious.

Recent notes I've made with the PnF chart and late night volume do give some hint that PRESSURE is building and traders might want to be on the al_rt!

The potential "island reversal" pattern should only draw further attention to this commodity near-term.

Tab Gilles : 6/21/2006 10:56:55 PM

EIA Weekly Report Link

OI Technical Staff : 6/21/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 8:58:28 PM

CNBC ... Futures trader talking about a possible gap island reversal in gold. GLD Link

Any other possible gap island reversals we've seen? Keeping an eye on the EWJ Link

Island Reversal Defined Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 8:01:29 PM

YM recap 10-minute interval chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 7:34:25 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Today's Activity


Swing trade put stopped in the Chicago Merc CME July $420 Puts (CMJ-SO) at the bid of $3.00 when the underlying shares traded my stop of $466.00.

Swing traded long 1/2 position in the StreetTracks Gold (GLD) at the offer of $58.35. Stop currently $55.90, targeting $63.50.

With observation of CME (technicals) swing traded long the one (1) of the Chicago Board of Trade BOT Sep $120 Calls (BOT-ID) at the offer of $5.40. Stop for now $96.50 in the underlying, targeting $120 near-term, $135 maximum.

YM Futures

I did not profile a YM trade today.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 6:28:08 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link ... Brisk volume at the big board, but the bullish side of me thinks today was a seller's boycott, not an all-out buying binge for 4 and 5-lettered stock symbols.

This does NOT mean "ah, light volume rally, no conviction from bulls."

Turn the table and it could well mean "I sold in May, see you later this summer."

Honor your stops if short the underlying and the stock trades a level it shouldn't have, or a level you didn't think it could!

If I thought/believed THIS Link would take place today, I'd have profiled a call/partial long.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 4:28:17 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/21/2006 4:17:21 PM

Tomorrow's economic reports include:

8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims For June 18 Wk. Consensus: +15K. Previous: -8K.

10a.m. May Conference Board Leading Indicators. Consensus: -0.5%. Previous: -0.1%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 3:37:36 PM

Boeing (BA) $85.72 +1.02% ... has not yet broken above Monday's high ($86.23) at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 3:25:24 PM

Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) $13.12 -0.30% ... not participating in today's rally.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 3:24:52 PM

but I will ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 3:24:39 PM

I almost don't want to mention it after today's CME action.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 3:22:54 PM

VIX.X 15.10 -9.52% ... on 06/02/06 and intra-day internals I noted VIX.X traded 14.00. Sure enough we was a sharp reversal from there.

Note WEEKLY S1 and be alert. We probably see VIX.X go there after no trade at WEEKLY Pivot so far this week.

Yesterday, Tab mentioned some "sentiment" indicators he likes to follow. This would be one of them.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 3:15:11 PM


Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 3:15:00 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 3:02:08 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 2:58:20 PM

EWJ $13.12 +1.78% ... post "bottom" high!

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 2:54:51 PM

BOT $110.46

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 2:54:42 PM

Swing trade bullish call option alert ... for one (1) of the CBOT Holdings BOT Sep $120 Calls (BOT-ID) at the offer of $5.40

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 2:47:21 PM

CBOT HOldings (BOT) $110.61 +2.55% Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 2:46:47 PM

There's one!

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 2:42:04 PM

I'm not certain that the 02:41:07 news is fueling today's gain in CME, but I would note the Chicago Stock Exchange is NOT the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 2:42:38 PM


DJ- Bank of America, Bear Stearns, E*Trade Financial and Goldman Sachs are investing a combined $20 million in the Chicago Stock Exchange, the latest example of Wall Street's growing interest in regional and smaller marketplaces.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 2:35:40 PM

August Gold (gc06q) alert $592.00 ... double top buy signal.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 2:32:29 PM

ICE $53.81 +8.46% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 2:31:01 PM


DJ- Microsoft says Martin Taylor, a high-profile lieutenant to CEO Steve Ballmer, has left after 13 years with the company. The software maker declines to explain the surprise departure.

MSFT $23.00 +1.95%

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 2:25:15 PM

Any other stocks giving some type of triple top buy signal today. Has the look of OVERLY short.

CME Link


Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 2:13:19 PM

Newmont Mining (NEM) $50.75 +2.52% Link ... has been trying to firm at my prior bearish target of $48.00 (see 05/26/06 10:04:23 short trade/target) Link ... Just as the stocks alerted to the decline in the commodity, we should look for them to al_rt/confirm renewed strength.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 2:08:18 PM

You like GLD here too Jane? Should at least fill that gap on August gold futures.

dx00y 85.64 -0.62% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 1:59:35 PM

FEDEX GAINS AS 4Q NET JUMPS 27% (before the bell)

DJ- Shares rise 4.5% as package-delivery firm earns $568 million, or $1.82 a share, as revenue climbs 10% to $8.49 billion. Analysts on average projected EPS of $1.77 and revenue of $8.42 billion. Firm sees 1Q earnings above estimates.

Fedex (FDX) $113.59 +4.86% Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 1:55:04 PM

BP Plc (BP) $67.15 +2.19% Link

US Probes Pollution Violations At BP Texas City Refinery

DJ- The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is investigating BP PLC (BP) for possible violations of air pollution rules at the company's Texas City refinery, according to EPA documents.

The investigation would be the latest to highlight a series of environmental and operational problems at the refinery since an explosion there last year killed 15 people.

"The matter is under enforcement review," said Cynthia Fanning, an EPA spokeswoman.

According to investigative requests sent to BP last year and in April, the refinery may be allowing large amounts of benzene to evaporate from its wastewater plant. Benzene, a natural component of crude oil, is classified as a known carcinogen by the EPA.

According to the documents obtained by Dow Jones Newswires, the agency suspects that units at the refinery called enhanced biodegradation units, which use microorganisms to reduce the benzene content of wastewater, aren't functioning properly. Benzene evaporates easily. If the units aren't breaking it down, the evaporation becomes a major air pollution problem.

BP dismisses the EPA's concerns. "We believe the enhanced biodegradation units at the Texas City refinery are working as designed and effectively removing benzene from refinery waste streams," said Ronnie Chappell, a BP spokesman in Houston.

Last September the EPA asked BP to perform a series of tests to determine whether the units were functioning properly. In late April the agency told BP its response to its first request was "inadequate" on several fronts.

Chappell said the refinery planned to conduct the tests requested by the EPA once the refinery's waste treatment plant is running at full capacity. The refinery itself is only running at half capacity now, after BP shut the facility down for extensive maintenance last year.

Studies have questioned whether biodegradation units effectively remove benzene. Evidence indicates that the organisms used in those devices don't effectively break down the benzene and take days to do so.

Nevertheless, most refineries rely heavily on biodegradation units to limit emissions of benzene and a few other chemicals from their wastewater treatment plants.

The Texas City refinery in 2004 was the seventh largest emitter of benzene pollution in the country, according to EPA data. It released 141,000 pounds of the chemical, though that data doesn't include emissions that might have occurred from the biodegradation units.

The same data, released in May, showed that the refinery was by far the most polluting industrial facility in the country, mainly due to emissions of formaldehyde and ammonia. The disclosure generated criticism of BP and led the company's officials to question whether their own data they supplied to the EPA is accurate.

BP is also still under investigation by the federal government for violations of environmental and workplace safety rules that may have caused the explosion in March 2005 that killed 15 people and wounded around 170.

The Texas City facility is the third largest oil refinery in the U.S.

Facing this greater scrutiny from regulators and investors, BP said on Monday it's appointing a new head of the division. Under the transition, Robert Malone, 54, who heads BP's London-based shipping division, will relocate to Houston and replace current BP America President Ross Pillari, 55, who is retiring.

Jane Fox : 6/21/2006 1:47:45 PM

Looks like Jeff and I are on the same page about GLD.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 1:47:22 PM

Bullish swing trade call cancel order alert ... for the Arkansas Best ABFS Sep $40 Calls (FDQ-IH) from 12:59:02

ABFS $42.80 +2.22% with FDQ-IH $4.50 x $4.80

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 1:34:56 PM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) Link $0.40 box chart to "match/approximate" my FM post from last night and August Gold Futures chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 1:27:29 PM

Swing trade long alert for 1/2 position in the StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $58.35 +1.83% here, stop $55.90, target $63.50.

Please consult your tax advisor as to treatment of capital gains/losses.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 1:17:27 PM


Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 1:17:13 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 1:12:50 PM

Chicago Merc (CME) $471.80 +4.86% ... has reversed 61.8% of its 04/24 to 05/24 decline.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 1:02:16 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 12:59:02 PM

Swing trade bullish call option alert ... Let's place an order to buy one (1) of the Arkansas Best ABFS Sep $40 Calls (FDQ-IH) for $4.40. Currently $4.10 x $4.80 with ABFS $42.83 +2.31%

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 12:23:56 PM

Swing trade put stopped alert on the one (1) Chicago Merc CME July $420 Put (CMJ-SO) $3.00 bid.

CME $466.00

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 12:17:14 PM

CME $463.66 +3.05% ... CMJ-SO $3.20 x $3.50.

At this point, willing to consign the loss, but would look to exit on pullback, perhaps $4.50 in the option.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 11:47:34 AM

Oh My! ... YM 11,182

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 11:45:56 AM

Chicago Merc (CME) $459.30 +2.08% Link ... sets up for test of critical/important resistance $460-$462.

1% box chart Link

Marc Eckelberry : 6/21/2006 11:39:23 AM

This is a fun new site for trivia: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 6/21/2006 11:37:14 AM

If you line up those MA's, you can clearly see that money is going into techs and small caps. NQ has not dropped the 10 ema 5 mn since the open.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 11:36:34 AM

US Jobless Claims Seen Up 15K June 17 Week

DJ- Jobless claims are expected to have undergone a moderate increase in the latest week, continuing the erratic pattern of recent weeks.

The median estimate of 11 economists surveyed Monday by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC is for jobless claims to have risen by 15,000 to 310,000 in the week ended June 17.

The Labor Department is due to release the jobless claims data at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT) on Thursday.

Assuming that the forecast is correct and if there are no revisions, the four-week moving average for jobless claims would move down to 311,250 from 315,750 in the prior week.

Marc Eckelberry : 6/21/2006 11:35:17 AM

Momentum traders should use the 10 and 20 ema 5 mn chart and buy the pullbacks there. Sometimes we get a break to 30 ema, but that is the guide line I use when we have one of these days.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 11:35:05 AM

U.S. Envoy To UN Rejects North Korea's Request For Talks

DJ- The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations on Wednesday rejected an offer from a North Korean diplomat for direct talks with Pyongyang over a potential missile test, saying threats weren't the way to seek dialogue.

"You don't normally engage in conversations by threatening to launch intercontinental ballistic missiles," John Bolton said, "and it's not a way to produce a conversation because if you acquiesce in aberrant behavior you simply encourage the repetition of it, which we're obviously not going to do."

Earlier Wednesday, Han Song Ryol, deputy chief of North Korea's mission to the United Nations, said in reported remarks that Pyongyang was seeking to resolve the possible missile test concerns through talks.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 11:23:21 AM

SPX NH/NL currently 3:4

Jane Fox : 6/21/2006 11:20:19 AM


Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 11:24:25 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 6/21/2006 11:06:34 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Murphy Oil discovery at its Thunder Bird prospect in the Gulf and recent Thunder Hawk and Thunder Ridge gives MUR major exploration and growth potential. In addition the damage from last years hurricanes have been repaired and the Meraux operations are back up.

2006 eps of $3.85 and 2007 est of $4.80. Currently trading at 10 x forward '07, could retest recent highs, target at 15 times '07 should give this stock a PO of $72, at the least $60 recent high. Downside limited $45 stop.

Link Link

Oil demand will continue to soar. Link Link $DJUSEN Link


Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 11:02:20 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/21/2006 11:02:12 AM

Lifetime brands' (LCUT) shares down 10.4% to $23.26 on volume 133,5809 vs daily average 59,900 following notes offer, outlook to sell $50m in convertible notes
* sees q2 loss 11c-16c a share
* q2 loss view includes 2c stock option costs
* sees fy06 earns $1.50-$1.70 a share
* prior fy06 earns view $1.45-$1.70 a share

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 10:56:59 AM

Frontier Oil (FTO) $50.45 +1.52% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 10:55:59 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) $47.38 -0.35% Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 10:55:17 AM

Sunoco (SUN) $61.45 +1.50% Link ...

Jane Fox : 6/21/2006 10:54:48 AM

Dateline CNN Federal agents were serving an indictment on six corrections officers at a Florida detention facility when one of those being arrested opened fire, the FBI says. Three people were shot, two fatally.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 10:54:38 AM

Valero (VLO) $68.67 +1.87% Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 10:53:10 AM

EIA Weekly Gross Inputs, Refinery Op. Capacity, Pct. Util. Refinery Op. Capacity Table found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 10:46:02 AM

Refinery Operable Capacity was unchanged at 17,387,000 barrels per day.

Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity rose to 93.31% from 92.73%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 10:41:12 AM

EIA Weekly Crude Oil, Gasoline, Distillate Inventory Table found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/21/2006 10:38:06 AM

U.S. crude supply at eight-year high

Jane Fox : 6/21/2006 10:37:25 AM

Glamis gold (GLG) shares up 8.1% at $34.08 following update on reserve at Penasquito
* project gold reserves more than double to 9.98m ozs
* project silver reserves up 86% to 575m ozs

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 10:35:44 AM

Google (GOOG) alert $396.28 +2.34% Link ... Trade at $396 triggers triple top buy signal

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 10:39:54 AM

Distillate Inventories up 1.69 million barrels

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 10:32:57 AM

Gasoline Inventories up 294,000 barrels

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 10:32:21 AM

Crude Oil Inventories up 1.38 million barrels

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 10:11:56 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/21/2006 10:02:06 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 6/21/2006 9:57:05 AM

Yesterday I'd mentioned that PFACP was up big...well it's ip 55% so far today. CNBC Champ Thomas Ko recommending Pro-Fac Cooperative (PFACP) on MSN. Link

Jane Fox : 6/21/2006 8:37:14 AM

Dateline WSJ Morgan Stanley's net income more than doubled and it posted record revenue on strong equity and fixed income trading activity, the latest in a string of robust reports from financial-services firms.

The New York investment bank reported net income of $1.96 billion, or $1.86 a share, for the period ended May 31, a 111% increase from the same period a year ago, when net was $928 million, or 86 cents a share. Revenue rose 48% to $8.94 billion from $6.03 billion.

The institutional securities division, which accounts for the bulk of Morgan's revenue, reported a 71% increase in revenue to a record $5.73 billion from $3.34 at this time a year ago. The company said trading in credit products, equities, derivatives and commodities, particularly electricity and natural gas, drove the record revenue for the division

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