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OI Technical Staff : 6/22/2006 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 8:43:02 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 8:34:28 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity


I did not profile any stock, or options trades today.

YM Futures

Day traded long the YM 11,075 (Stop=11,058 : Tgt= 11,125) and was eventually stopped at 11,095 (+20 pts, or $100/contract)

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 4:34:28 PM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) Link ... goes out at $57.73 -1.02%, roughly $577.30/oz.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 4:31:17 PM

Brazil iShares (EWZ) $35.61 -0.22% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 4:28:37 PM

Argentina Q1 Current Acct Surplus $1.179B vs. $185M Yr Ago

DJ- With the effects of last year's foreign debt restructuring and this year's $9.5 billion payment to the International Monetary Fund paying dividends, Argentina registered a sharp year-on-year widening in its current account surplus in the first quarter.

The National Statistics Agency, INDEC, said Thursday that the current account surplus came in at $1.179 billion, up from $185 million in the first quarter of 2005.

INDEC said that stripping out the effects of the debt restructuring, the increase in the current account surplus year-on-year would have been $160 million. Although the debt restructuring revived payments that had been in default, the accrued interest was registered in the account as an outflow throughout the four-year default period.

And although the IMF payment reduced the interest payments on that debt, it also resulted in a negative financial account for the period, which measures capital flows. This account was in a deficit of $8.145 billion for the first quarter, but would have shown a surplus of $1.4 billion without the IMF payment, INDEC said.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 4:26:42 PM

Oracle (ORCL) $14.33 -1.37% ... slips to $14.21 extended. Just about Friday's close.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 4:25:17 PM

Oracle (ORCL) $14.33 -1.37% ... company had warned to upside on evening of 06/15/06.

DJ - Reports Q4 GAAP EPS Of 24 C, Non-GAAP EPS Of 29 C

4Q Rev $4.9B

Sees FY '07 Stk-Comp Costs OF 2c-3c/Shr

4Q Net $1.3B Vs $1.02B

4Q Software Rev $4B, Svcs Rev $857M

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 4:08:59 PM

Frontier Oil (FTO) $53.07 +3.95% ... does get a close above its 21-day SMA ($52.72).

Jane Fox : 6/22/2006 4:03:55 PM

AD volume to new daily lows, VIX is climbing and TRIN is climbing. I don't think we have too much more upside. Of course it is 4:05 as well so that was like DUH!

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 4:05:30 PM

That, but I also think that U.S. would be viewed as "cut and run," and in the future, any type of global problem that warrants any type of military presence, the region involved would question U.S. staying power.

A highly debated topic for sure.

Some (like myself) have "a problem" with the U.S. willing to negotiate incentives with Iran.

Paying somebody to not do something?

Sign me up!

Keene Little : 6/22/2006 3:56:39 PM

Jeff, I completely agree with your opinion on the Iraq withdrawal question. It would be capitulation to the terrorists and the capital markets worldwide would react out of fear.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 3:55:37 PM


DJ- U.S. tax system is a major disincentive for investment, Intel Chairman Craig R. Barrett says, adding that U.S. taxes result in about an extra $1 billion to build and run a new semiconductor plant in the U.S. rather than overseas.

Jane Fox : 6/22/2006 3:54:48 PM

Economic reports for tomorrow include:

8:30a.m. May Durable Goods Orders. Consensus: +0.4%. Previous: -4.4%.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 3:51:44 PM

I tell you what. I think if the U.S. were to withdraw troops from Iraq "before its time," the equity markets around the world would see a major sell-off.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 3:49:26 PM


DJ- The Republican-controlled U.S. Senate overwhelmingly rejects a Democratic proposal that would require the Bush administration to withdraw all combat troops from Iraq by July 1, 2007, with redeployments beginning this year.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 3:46:59 PM

Arkansas Best (ABFS) $45.71 +5.93% ... I can't find any "news" to explain today's action. Must have been my stock screen from Tuesday driving the stock. (grin).

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 3:35:35 PM


Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 3:34:23 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 3:31:03 PM

I had posted this al_rt at 03:21:39, but it printed a blank entry.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 3:30:58 PM

YM was stopped alert at 11,095.

YM 11,106 here.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 3:21:39 PM

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 3:21:35 PM

IBM $77.23 -1.38% ... not sure if tonight's ORCL earnings will have impact tomorrow. ORCL is big database software. IBM hasn't budged on recent Dow bounce. BA's been doing all the work.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 3:19:54 PM

BA $84.14 -2.00% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 3:19:30 PM

YM long stopped alert 11,095

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 3:14:42 PM

YM raise bullish stop alert ... to 11,095

YM 11,107

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 3:12:28 PM

YM ... makes a move 11,109

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 3:11:57 PM

Look at BOOM $31.74

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 3:10:21 PM

That YM 11,230 overlap just calls out to me as a level of destiny this week. To get there tomorrow, doesn't the YM need to close the range toward the close?

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 3:08:32 PM

YM raise stop alert ... for small gain to 11,079.

YM 11,089 ... a/d lines still terrible. Either they kick up a bit or that pop to 11,103 is it.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 3:02:53 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 2:58:45 PM

YM raise bullish stop alert to break even.

YM 11,094

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 2:57:25 PM

A bear would say ... "no, no, no.... you got to get it above 11,105"

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 2:56:43 PM

YM 11,098 ... this is where Eric would start chattering a bit.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 2:54:14 PM

YM 11,090

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 2:53:42 PM

BA alert $84.24 -1.88% .... 19.1% dynamic.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 2:47:43 PM

BA $84.09 -2.05% ... get the feeling they've got them line up for something.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 2:47:07 PM

YM 11,076 ... traded 11,072 on IBM $77.00

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 2:46:17 PM

IBM $77.04 -1.60% ... had an alert set lower at $77.00, just triggered.

Jane Fox : 6/22/2006 2:39:35 PM



Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 2:38:37 PM

YM raise bullish stop alert ... to 11,068.

YM 11,082

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 2:37:36 PM

Maybe slap a "dynamic" on BA right here. 38.2% gives me an overlap at $84.56, 50% would be $84.78.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 2:23:01 PM

YM long alert let's go long in here at 11,075, stop 11,058, target a bounce to 11,025.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 2:16:38 PM

VIX 16.38 ... rather "quiet" today within DAILY Pivots. Sitting on DAILY R1 last 90-minutes or so.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 2:04:32 PM

Boeing (BA) $84.16 -1.96% ... here is my updated "retracement" chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 1:47:24 PM

Boeing (BA) ... almost back to the 06/15/06 short entry of $83.70.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 1:46:09 PM

Boeing (BA) $83.90 -2.27% .... wouldn't that have been something? 0.01

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 1:45:23 PM

Boeing (BA) $84.01 -2.14% ....

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 1:43:04 PM

YM alert 11,080

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 1:42:46 PM

Notes from Guitar George (gold stocks Pnf) - Jeff: I just ran P&F charts on eight gold issues, and the only one that has a bullish price objective is BGO at $14.75. AUY-$4.50 GLG-$22.00 AEM-$16.00, NG $7.00, PCU-$57.00, MDG- $18.00, NEM$41.00.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 1:37:47 PM

Teva Pharma (TEVA) $31.89 -1.14% Link ... getting whacked today. Somebody upgraded them not too long ago.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 1:34:12 PM

eBay (EBAY) $30.05 -2.24% ... somebody had been sitting a bid $30.11 and they might have given up. Almost like a short just sitting there with a big order, now filled.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 1:17:02 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 1:07:57 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 1:03:13 PM

Yeah ... it's a "buuuuuulll market" Eric. BA $84.45 -1.61% gets some good news after it couldn't make a new weekly high yesterday.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 1:01:30 PM

About now, Eric would be saying ...."I'll buy that 11,080 Jeff and sell it to you at 11,178. It's a buuuullll market!"

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 12:59:15 PM

YM 10-minute interval chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 12:52:50 PM

HK Cathay Pacific Orders 6 Boeing 747 Freighter Aircraft

DJ- Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. (0293.HK) said Thursday it ordered six Boeing 747-400ERF aircraft in its largest ever order for its freighter fleet.

Hong Kong's biggest carrier said in a statement the six new aircraft will be delivered between May 2008 and April 2009.

"Cargo is a major contributor to our continued growth, and we are committed to expanding our freighter fleet to ensure it plays a key role in the future of both Cathay Pacific and Hong Kong as a leading cargo hub," said Chief Executive Philip Chen.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 12:51:05 PM

Boeing (BA) $84.50 -1.57% ... sets up for test of Tuesday's lows.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 12:50:17 PM

I agree Jane. Some readers found it confusing, but many found it as "I see the winning trade and I'm getting on that trade too!"

Others would say ... "Ah. I'm not sold on either camp and I'll pass on this one. Wait for another trade."

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 12:43:44 PM

Ugh! YM 11,093 (session low)

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 12:43:11 PM

YM short setup alert with YM 11,109 ... might be looking for one more bounce, short near 11,126, then target 11,081.

Jane Fox : 6/22/2006 12:37:39 PM

AT least as a reader it would be to me for it takes off my side blinders.

Jane Fox : 6/22/2006 12:36:42 PM

Jeff, don't remember too much about Eric and John but surely remember Austin. And although I do not remember the reasoning I think that kind of dialogue in the monitor is invaluable to the readers.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 12:35:26 PM

Jane ... do you remember when Eric, Austin, John and I would disagree on where a sector was headed (from time to time). We would "make our case" and outline the fundamental and then the technical tests for our reasoning. Then let the MARKET decide who was right?

Nobody's feelings would get hurt. Then the "loser(s)" would turn and pile on the winner's trade?

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 12:28:20 PM

Great post Jane (12:14:26) ... I'm sure there is a camp of traders out there (bull and bear) that will be making some decisions at those RED trends. Shorting horizontal, monitoring up trend.

Buyers playing short-term trend, looking for a gap fill.

Jane Fox : 6/22/2006 12:25:01 PM

Univision Communications Inc., (UNV) down $1.11 at $32.73. The Spanish-language broadcaster received a takeover bid below the $40 per share it had been seeking.

Clarcor Inc., (CLC) down $2.17 at $28.64. The maker of filtration systems posted a lower second-quarter profit due to a $3 million payment dispute.

Jabil Circuit Inc., (JBL) down 84 cents at $24.64. Investors were disappointed by the chipmaker's weak quarterly results, forecasts and disclosure that it received a federal subpoena

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 12:23:07 PM

dx00y 10-minute interval chart with QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot Levels turned on Link ... Can tie GLD WEEKLY Pivot with dx00y WEEKLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 12:16:56 PM

GLD 10-minute chart interval at this Link

Same chart as below (12:39:00 AM), but I've turned on my QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot levels.

Jane Fox : 6/22/2006 12:14:26 PM

Here is the 60 minute GLD chart Jeff was talking about in his 12:06 post. My take on this gap is that it will not be filled as long as the $ continues to make new 2 month highs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 12:10:55 PM

Answer: (to 12:06:22) ... I'd say the answer should be "No!"

To get the "shock" dynamic, which gives the island bottom pattern the potentially powerful short-term reversal up, is to create the surprise.

Does a trader want to be loading the truck up in gold on an island bottom dynamic?

No! What if the pattern doesn't play out. Load the truck then dump it with a BIIIIIG LOSS in the account.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 12:06:22 PM

Did you see the GLD action the last 60-minutes?

Here's a question I'd pose to a trader that might be trading the scenario of an "island bottom" setup. Think about this before you answer it.

Do you want to see GLD "trend" up and fill that gap?

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 12:00:42 PM

Here's the Machinery/Tools Bullish % Link ... A lot of work to be done for any sign of demand to outstrip supply.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 11:55:08 AM

Bullish % Steel/Iron (BPSTEE) here's what that sector's supply/demand has been doing Link ... We can see a "lower high and lower low" distribution. When the bull % reverses from below 30% to above 30%, that is "bull alert" status. We've seen that once before, and now again. "Bull confirmed" would take place with a current chart reading of 52%.

Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $31.31 +0.51% Link ... has a little bit of a "steel flavor" to it. Dorsey/Wright has BOOM classified as MACHinery/Tools. Kind'a tough to put BOOM in just one sector though. How do you classify "explosive metalworking and AMK welding?"

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 11:43:44 AM

Dorsey/Wright's Quick Internal Review ... here's a portion of what I get each morning when I log onto my Dorsey/Wright PnF chart system. Quick little recap of day's supply/demand action. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 11:37:07 AM

Looking at my "recap" of yesterday's sector bullish % action (sector Bull% that changed +/- 2%). Dorsey showing STEEl/Iron rose 7.3% and still "bull alert"

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 11:28:39 AM

For those PnF chartists that refer to Professor Davis' probability studies regarding various PnF chart patterns, remember that the patterns are specific to "bull" and "bear" phase.

For the triple top buy signals to be associated with Professor Davis' findings, at a MINIMUM the sector needs to be in bull phase.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 11:26:16 AM

CBOT Holdings (BOT) $112.20 +1.57% Link ... X gets the square. This negates the possibility of the "bull trap" pattern.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 11:22:16 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/22/2006 11:18:38 AM

Atlanta FED president Jack Guynn to retire Oct. 1. Guynn has worked 42 years as Atlanta FED.

Jane Fox : 6/22/2006 11:16:59 AM

GENEVA (AP) -- Iran's response to incentives to halt its nuclear program will not come before mid-July, at least two weeks past the date sought by the U.S. and its partners, U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan said Thursday after meeting Iran's foreign minister.

"I don't think they will give an answer before the G-8 meeting in St. Petersburg," Annan told reporters after a meeting with Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki. The Russian meeting of the world's eight industrialized democracies is to run July 15-17.

"I expect their answer to come after that meeting, but I can't tell you specifically on what date," Annan said.

He said he believes Tehran is taking the incentive package "very seriously."

"I hope it will give its official answer before too long," Annan said.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 11:03:34 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 10:57:47 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/22/2006 10:46:22 AM

Nice systems (NICE) shares up 10% at $26.29 due to raised Q2 forecast
* now sees q2 rev of $94m-$98m vs. $89m-$92m

Jane Fox : 6/22/2006 10:44:33 AM


Jane Fox : 6/22/2006 10:41:00 AM

Concorde career colleges (CCDC) shares up 30% at $19.24
* rises on acquisition announcement late Wednesday
* agrees to be acquired by liberty partners affiliate for $19.80 cash
* bid is 34% premium over june 21 closing price
* meger valued at $114.5m
* expects deal to close in q3

Jane Fox : 6/22/2006 10:38:30 AM

Natural-gas supply up 79 billion cubic feet.

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 10:32:10 AM

EIA Weekly Nat. Gas Storage Table Link

Jane Fox : 6/22/2006 10:21:00 AM


Jane Fox : 6/22/2006 10:12:46 AM

TRIN making new daily highs and AD line and volume to new daily lows.

Jane Fox : 6/22/2006 10:11:22 AM

NEW YORK - A widely watched gauge of economic activity slipped by 0.6 percent in May, the Conference Board said Thursday, suggesting that the nation's economy could weaken in coming months.

The Conference Board, an industry-backed research group, said its Index of Leading Economic Indicators fell to 137.9 in May after it declined 0.1 percent to 138.7 in April.

The May figure was in line with what analysts had expected.

The index is watched closely because it's designed to predict economic activity three to six months in the future.

Jane Fox : 6/22/2006 10:09:11 AM


Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 10:02:10 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 9:58:47 AM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $58.19 -0.24% ... WEEKLY Pivot = $58.87

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 9:57:43 AM

Dollar Index (dx00y) alert 86.44 +0.76% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 9:31:47 AM

Arkansas Best (ABFS) alert $44.31 +2.82% Link ...

Jane Fox : 6/22/2006 8:42:45 AM

Dateline WSJ WASHINGTON -- U.S. jobless claims rose last week, reversing a recent two-week downward trend, and indicating the labor market, though generally sound, may have some slack.

Initial jobless claims increased by 11,000 to a seasonally adjusted 308,000 in the week ending June 17, the Labor Department said Thursday. New claims for the week ending June 10 were 297,000, revised from a previously reported 295,000.

The Labor Department said there were no special factors in the latest week.

This week's numbers were better than Wall Street expectations. The median estimate of 11 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC had projected jobless claims would rise by 15,000 in the latest week, to 310,000.

The latest week's numbers are in line with February and March claims figures, when job creation was stronger than in May. A recent jobs report showed a weaker-than-expected 75,000 gain in May payrolls and June claims figures point to a higher gain this month.

The four-week moving average of new claims decreased last week by 5,000 to 311,250, the Labor Department said.

Jane Fox : 6/22/2006 8:36:35 AM

U.S. weekly initial jobless claims rise to 308,000

Jeff Bailey : 6/22/2006 4:47:04 AM

YM 10-minute interval chart at this Link

I count 5 different levels of resistance around WEEKLY R1.

A trade there may well tie in with a VIX.X at 14.00?

It is 04:45 AM EDT. I doubt I'll be in any condition to make trade profiles tomorrow.

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