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OI Technical Staff : 6/30/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 7:23:51 PM

I've been informed that we will be taking the day off on Monday (1/2 day of trade from 09:30-01:00).

Here is a quick update of currently OPEN trades and specified targets/stops at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 7:08:56 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Today's Activity


With BOT approaching my target of $120 decided to close out the one (1) BOT Sep $120 Call (BOT-ID) at the bid of $8.00 when the underlying shares were trading $119.13. ($+2.60, or $260/contract)

We were swing trade short stopped on the 1/2 position in Continental Airlines (CAL) at $28.25 ($-1.63, or -6.12%).

Into the close, CAL surged and hit adjusted stop (from this morning's 11:06:16 AM) of $28.65. I'm logging lowest bid of $3.20 for the two (2) CAL Sep $30 Puts (CAL-UF) ($-1.70, or $-170/contract)

June Stocks/Options Trade Blotter of CLOSED Trades found at this Link

YM Futures

Day trade long the YM at 11,261 (Stop= 11,240 : Tgt= 11,300) but was eventually stopped at 11,256 as a wild end of quarter trade unfolded. (-5 pts, or $25/contract).

June YM Futures Trade Blotter found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 6:08:51 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 6:01:20 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

SPX NH/NL finished at 22:9. The 22 new highs are the most since 5/11/06 when SPX had 30:9.

June average daily volume at the NYSE comes in at 2.47 billion per day, off fractional from May's 2.48 billion/day average.

NASDAQ average daily volume was 2.03 billion in June, down 5% from May's 2.14 billion/day average.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 5:45:15 PM

Look at that volume at the close on the NYSE and NASDAQ!

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 5:37:42 PM

US Bank Loans Down $6.7 Billion In Latest Week

DJ- Large U.S. banks' commercial and industrial loans fell $6.7 billion to about $1.120 trillion in the week ended June 21, the latest week for which data are available, the Federal Reserve said Friday.

That followed a $1.0 billion decrease in these loans to businesses in the previous week.

Jumbo certificates of deposit grew $6.4 billion to about $1.593 trillion in the latest weekly data, after shrinking $10.6 billion the previous week. Revolving home equity loans rose $700 million to $429.2 billion after falling $300 million the previous week.

06/30/06 Release: Assets & Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the U.S. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 5:14:48 PM

Continental Airlines (CAL) 5-minute interval chart (regular session) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 5:23:06 PM

Excellent comment and honest trader ... CNBC interview with currency trader (Craig Russell, ODL Securities, Senior Foreign Exchange Strategist) saying he was long the dollar going into yesterday's FOMC with thought there was a chance of 50 basis point hike. When it didn't happen, he got "crushed" on his long.

Point here is that dollar action yesterday and today is "counter-trend" of some, perhaps many traders thoughts of further Fed action.

At the bottom of Market Monitor, I showed Thursday's dx00y trade action.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 4:50:21 PM

CAL / CAL-UF ... I did not see where the BID was at on the CAL-UF when CAL traded profiled option stop of $28.85.

I will have to record $3.20 as exit trade.

I'll move this "trade" down into the watch list section of my MM profiles, but will revisit early next week.

Level II Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 4:36:05 PM

For those that took my ICE trade from a couple of weeks ago in the high $40's, I'd take some profits at $57.00 in extended session.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 4:32:00 PM

Northwest Airlines Posts $88M Net Loss For May NWACQ $0.56 -1.75% .... $0.56 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 4:26:47 PM

Continental Airlines (CAL) $29.80 +7.04% ... I'm not finding any "news" to explain this action to the close.

I'm left to assume a BIG short capitulat(ed/ing), or somehow impacted by end of quarter index rebalancing.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 4:18:17 PM

CAL $29.10 ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 4:15:08 PM

CAL went out at $29.80 +7.04% and $29.30 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 4:14:18 PM

AMR $25.42 +1.88% ... and $25.42 in extended.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 4:13:36 PM

Jane ... do you see anything on your newswire regarding CAL?

Jane Fox : 6/30/2006 4:11:02 PM

Everyone have a great weekend and we will see you all on Wednesday. Happy 4th.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 4:08:16 PM

Oh my alert ... CAL $29.80 +7.04% ... what is going on?

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 4:06:39 PM

Was ICE being added to Russell 3000?

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 4:04:35 PM

What day was it that Jim wrote his Russell 3000 market wrap?

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 4:02:39 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPY $127.31 : YM 11,241

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 4:01:20 PM

YM 11,236 ... got tapped lower as ER rocketed.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 3:59:34 PM

ICE $56.71 +2.45% ... finds a bid

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 3:56:54 PM

Look at the RUT.X ... from 715.50 to 720 last 25-minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 3:53:46 PM

I don't show UAUA being a component of the XAL.X, which we track in the U.S. Market Watch

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 3:52:17 PM

If stopped, with CA $28.66, then be done for today. I'm going to hold mine in personal account. See if UAUA addition to Russell 3000 having "artificial" bullish implications for others.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 3:50:44 PM

Cancel stop alert on the CA puts.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 3:49:32 PM

Looking to see if UAUA is a component of any airline indexes.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 3:39:18 PM

YM ... 11,250

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 3:34:38 PM

CAL $28.30 +1.65% ...

AMR $25.48 +2.09% ...

UAUA $30.63 +1.99% ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 3:33:16 PM

YM bullish exit alert 11,256

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 3:32:09 PM

Didn't think of that ... UAL Corp. (UAUA) going into Russell today.

The other day when monitoring CA and AMR I thought it looked like some "balancing" action.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 3:30:10 PM

YM raise bullish stop alert ... to 11,256

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 3:21:46 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/30/2006 3:19:57 PM

McMillan's Weekly commentary. We have been waiting for the market to break out over resistance -- to show that price action could be as bullish as some of the technical indicators were becoming. That has now occurred, in the wake of the Fed's announcement. I'm not completely in agreement with the super- bullish interpretation of the Fed statement (and I think some of the buying was due to end-of-quarter window dressing), but the reasons don't really matter. An upside breakout has occurred and thus we expect the major indices to trade higher at least for the short term.

$SPX had struggled with the 1260 area. Two rallies were turned back there, and the 200-day moving average (one which is often followed by institutional traders) had been holding back progress as well. In addition, the declining 20-day moving average was overhanging the averages as well. Today's rally blew through all of those, turning the technical picture bullish -- at least as long as it doesn't slip back below 1255, say.

The equity-only put-call ratios had already turned bullish (Figures 2 and 3) and were just waiting for confirmation from price action and the other technical indicators -- confirmation which is now verified.

Market breadth has been poor all year, and it was deeply oversold for most of the past month. With today's action, both breadth oscillators have given buy signals. A truly long-lasting rally would be led by extremely oversold breadth readings in the coming days and weeks. Failure to achieve that may give us some indication of just how strong and long-lasting this rally can be.

Volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) plunged today. That is a bit strange, because a new era of higher volatility has almost certainly been issued in. Even if the Fed has temporarily stopped raising rates, the market is going to live in fear that they might start again. That, coupled with the aftermath of a very nasty decline in April and May is certainly going to keep volatility high, in our opinion. Yes, we understand that $VIX dropped because put sellers were hammering $SPX and $OEX puts with abandon today, but that doesn't necessarily mean the market won't be volatile.

This short-term breakout should carry the averages up to at least the early June highs -- about 1290 on $SPX. The jury is still out on what happens after that. It is possible that an intermediate-term rally will take place, but we are not jumping on that bandwagon yet. The June lows are eventually going to be retested, we're sure, even if it takes several months to do so. This could develop into the kind of bottom we saw in August-October 1998 or July-October 2002. But, for now, enjoy the rally while it lasts.

Jane Fox : 6/30/2006 3:07:33 PM

NYSE has volume of 923.2m
* NYSE has 2,046 advancers vs 1,145 decliners; 136 issues unch
* NYSE has 74 issues setting 52-week highs
* NYSE has 47 issues setting 52-week lows
* NASDAQ has volume of 987.5m
* NASDAQ has 1,579 gainers vs 1,352 losers; 145 issues unch
* NASDAQ has 81 issues setting 52-week highs
* NASDAQ has 25 issues setting 52-week lows

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 3:06:09 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 2:36:53 PM

YM 11,268 ...

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 2:37:17 PM

CAL $28.40 +2.0% ... makes a bear want to cry and just call it quits. Wait until next week.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 2:26:55 PM

Tab! Have a great weekend.

I do hope you'll consider posting Targets and Stops for our traders.

You are correct in that YOUR time frame and YOUR risk/reward is probably different than mine, Jane's, or subscribers. Thus the importance of placing YOUR stop/target. Then, they can assess YOUR risk/reward, and if they want to fine tune it they can. But they'll still have the comfort of knowing that you will update the trade (winning/losing) as long as stop/target not traded.

Jane Fox : 6/30/2006 2:23:04 PM

I will not be in the monitor on Monday. I am going camping.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 2:22:18 PM

Trader Reminder (alert) Equity markets will be open on Monday from 09:30 AM EDT to 01:00 PM EDT.

Markets then closed on Tuesday in observation of Independence Day

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 2:14:15 PM

YM 5-minute interval chart Link

Tab Gilles : 6/30/2006 2:14:08 PM

One more chart for the road....

Murphy Oil (MUR)$56.48 +$1.50

Set stop at $54 level for 1/2 position, remaining 1/2 use 10-ema. Price target $60! Link Out of here....ciao

Tab Gilles : 6/30/2006 2:08:40 PM

Jeff....true about the time frame, everyone has a different view on what is short and long term. Just as individuals have different levels of risk and reward.

On the PMPIX Profund, I agree it is a drawback- based on closing NAV. That entry point based on the SLV/GLD I highlighted last week would have been at the $41 level or about +10% ago. Still looks like a buy here. Link Link

Got to go....going away for a long holiday weekend.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 1:59:58 PM

YM long entry alert 11,261 here, stop 11,240, target 11,300.

Jane Fox : 6/30/2006 1:59:29 PM

Dateline CNN Preliminary autopsy results found no injuries, but indicated congenital heart abnormalities in a 12-year-old boy who died after a Disney ride in Florida, according to a statement from the medical examiner's office.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 1:55:03 PM

PMPIX Link quick fact sheet at this Link ... Hmmmm... almost like an option (150% of the daily performance of the Dow Jones Presious Metals Index), but doesn't have the intra-day entry/exit availability.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 1:42:44 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA ... take your retracement from the 05/10/06 high close to the recent 06/13/06 low close. 50% at $111.765. Now turn to a 5-minute interval.

That's almost a month's time. Today is the last day of the month/quarter.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 1:35:15 PM

Just to share ... I'm laughing at myself after reading Tab's 1:12:21 post.

"Long-term" for me anymore is about 3-months.

Mr. Buffett might also chuckle at himself, where 5 years is a short-term trade

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 1:27:43 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 1:22:13 PM

iShares Silver Trust (SLV) $110.40 +2.39% ... So ... 50 shares x $110.40 per share = $5,520.00 into the PMPIX at today's close, or SSPIX at today's close?

What kind of reward (target) and risk (stop) should a trader take?

Tab Gilles : 6/30/2006 1:12:21 PM

Jeff, my time frame is usually intermediate to long term several weeks to months. I'm not really a short term trader. I point out in my posts ideas and levels of entry. As with the metal stocks, I saw some oversold conditions and catalysts for entry. As far as the 50 share trade on SLV...I say on that low of a spread and shorter time frame I would not trade 50 shares. I would use a sector fund, such as Profunds PMPIX or inverse SSPIX. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 1:07:33 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/30/2006 12:49:45 PM


Jane Fox : 6/30/2006 12:49:30 PM


Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 12:48:35 PM

Tab, I believe in that also, but as an informational resource like we are, YOUR target for SLV on 1,000 shares might be $112 with a stop at $109, thus your pointing out SLV.

If $112 is your target, does it make sense for a 50-share trader to take consider the trade?

Tab Gilles : 6/30/2006 12:43:32 PM

Jeff, I believe that stops levels are up to the individuals risk level. I use the 10-ema, along with the MACD/RSI and volume. Also, Fib retracements, candle stick and chart formations to make technical decisions. However, one must also stay on top of the fundamentals too. But, on big moves up one should take some money off the table, which is always a smart and profitable thing to do.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 12:39:30 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link ... Updated action for today as well as stop adjustments for GLD and CAL-UF.

Did close out the BOT-ID just shy of $120 target

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 12:24:27 PM

CAL Question Do you still believe in the H&S pattern on CAL and is $ 20 target for the September put still valid?? I'm concerned by the write-up tonight about the DJ Transporttion Index and how it fared today and is that going to negate your put play, or should we hold on tight?


Jeff's Reply Yes! I still believe in the CAL Sep $30 Put play. I stop believing at $28.65.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 12:12:53 PM

Any stop/target updates on your MUR long Tab? SLV and RIO?

Tab Gilles : 6/30/2006 12:12:30 PM

RIO Like it as a commodity play and also buying a foreign stock and a play on the dollar. Link

Also like Suncor Energy (SU) Energy play with oil-sand in Canadan and again a dollar play. This along with Murphy (possible take-over canidate) are my 2 favorite energy plays. Link

Tab Gilles : 6/30/2006 12:05:39 PM

Thank you guys....

Nice to be on the right side :)

However....I'm still somewhat cautious, with the Fed and the always uncertainty of geoplolitcal and economical surprises waiting to spook the markets. Basically ride the wave, but set your stops.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 12:03:02 PM

RIO= Companhia Vale do Rio Doce Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 12:00:30 PM

No clue what RIO is Jane. Just saw Tab's GLD, SLV and RIO update.

Jane Fox : 6/30/2006 11:59:22 AM

Tab don't you love been the windsheild instead of the bug?

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 11:58:00 AM

Great call Tab, great call ...

Tab Gilles : 6/30/2006 11:56:16 AM

The charts indicated that the market was oversold. For a better part of 2 weeks I'd been posting several charts asking if the selling was done, on 6/27 I stated that the $COMPQ & $SPX presented a BUYING opportunity and I believed that when the Fed made it's move the markets would rally.

Link Link Link Link Link Link Link Link Link Link

Jane Fox : 6/30/2006 11:56:01 AM

I agree SLV (the silver ETF) is doing well also.

Jane Fox : 6/30/2006 11:55:27 AM

Jeff what is RIO?

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 11:52:12 AM

We should have played SLV and RIO too Jane!

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 11:49:37 AM

Continental Airlines (CAL) $28.01 +0.61% ... 30-minute interval chart with same "head/should top retracement" with QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot Levels turned on at this Link ... We were STOPPED OUT of the 1/2 position short at $28.25 (should a short squeeze take place above right shoulder).

Tab Gilles : 6/30/2006 11:47:02 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) $55.60 +$0.62 Finally broke over $54 resistance. Link Link

Tab Gilles : 6/30/2006 11:43:47 AM

Last Friday I posted these series of charts on why I expeted the metals to rise.

In 1 week...GLD is up 5.5%, SLV +7.32% and RIO +9%. Link

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 11:31:03 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/30/2006 11:29:30 AM


Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 11:12:04 AM

Board of Trade (BOT) (alert) $120.00 +3.77% ....

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 11:10:50 AM

Swing trade short stopped alert for the 1/2 stock position in Continental Airlines (CAL) $28.25

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 11:06:16 AM

Swing trade put adjust stop alert ... on the Continental Airlines CAL Sep $30 Puts (CAL-UF) to $28.65 in the underlying.

Will stay with the $28.25 stop on the 1/2 position stock short.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 11:03:37 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/30/2006 10:24:17 AM

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment rose more than expected in June, a report showed on Friday, as consumers' view of both their current and future conditions improved.

The University of Michigan's final reading on consumer sentiment in June was 84.9 up from May's final reading of 79.1, said sources who saw the subscription-only report.

The median forecast of Wall Street economists polled by Reuters was for a reading of 82.5.

The survey's index of current conditions rose to 105.0 in June from 96.1 in May, while consumer expectations rose to 72.0 from 68.2 in May.

Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, but in recent years confidence measures have been a weak guide to actual spending.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 10:18:13 AM

BOT's WEEKLY R2 at $117.63 .... did get some support action after move above after the open.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 10:14:48 AM

Swing trade bullish call exit alert with BOT $119.13 +3.01% and so close to bullish target of $120, close out the BOT-ID at the bid of $8.00 x $8.80.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 10:08:39 AM

Bullish swing trade long raise stop alert on the StreetTracks Gold (GLD) to $60.45.

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 10:03:28 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/30/2006 10:01:54 AM


Jane Fox : 6/30/2006 10:01:00 AM


Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 10:00:24 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/30/2006 9:57:20 AM

If day trading, I would step aside for the 10:00 report.

Jane Fox : 6/30/2006 9:56:16 AM

Remember the June PMI at 10:00

Jeff Bailey : 6/30/2006 9:54:47 AM

YM Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Jane Fox : 6/30/2006 9:54:32 AM

Keep your eye on the VIX because it has been climbing all day so far. The trin to new daily highs.

Jane Fox : 6/30/2006 9:50:21 AM


Jane Fox : 6/30/2006 9:42:11 AM




Jane Fox : 6/30/2006 9:38:22 AM

Dateline WSJ By sharing its concerns about slowing economic growth, the Federal Reserve acknowledged widely held anxiety that its anti-inflationary tightening of monetary policy could go too far, and the markets showed their gratitude. But it may be wishful thinking to assume the more balanced tone from Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues means they won't feel a need to raise interest rates again in August unless they see an ebbing inflation threat.

Jane Fox : 6/30/2006 9:22:23 AM

Dateline WSJ Kirk Kerkorian's Tracinda is pressing General Motors Co. to "fully explore" joining the alliance between Renault S.A. and Nissan Motor Co., which would include those companies buying a minority stake in GM.

Shares of GM were up about 12% in premarket trading.

Tracinda, a major shareholder in GM, said it sent a letter to GM Chairman Richard Wagoner in which Tracinda proposed that GM's board of directors establish a committee to examine teaming up with Renault and Nissan, which are both run by Carlos Ghosn.

In the letter, Tracinda said: "It is our understanding that Renault and Nissan are receptive to the concept of including General Motors in their partnership-alliance and purchasing from General Motors a significant minority interest in the company."

Jane Fox : 6/30/2006 9:13:57 AM

Kerkorian proposes GM team up with Renault, Nissan. Full article coming soon.

Jane Fox : 6/30/2006 8:37:47 AM

June 30 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer spending in the U.S. rose 0.4 percent, the smallest increase in three months, and inflation held above the Federal Reserve's preferred range.

The rise in spending follows a 0.7 percent April gain, the Commerce Department said in Washington. Over the last three months, the increase in the department's measure of inflation that's favored by the Fed matched the biggest in a decade.

Policy makers yesterday raised the benchmark interest rate a 17th straight time and said that "some inflation risks remain" even as economic growth appears to be moderating. The rise in the measure of core inflation, which excludes food and energy, may keep pressure on the Fed to extend their two-year run of rate increases.

The Fed is "going to have to put more weight on the inflation concerns at least over the next month or two," Scott Anderson, an economist at Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis, said before the report. "There is scope for further rate hikes without panicking about growth."

The report also showed incomes rose 0.4 percent, more than expected, after a 0.7 percent increase that was larger than the government reported last month. The May rise reflected a jump in proprietors' income, while wages were unchanged from a month earlier.

Jane Fox : 6/30/2006 8:34:33 AM

WE now await the 9:45 June University of Michigan Consumer Setniment.

Jane Fox : 6/30/2006 8:33:54 AM

* Core inflation remains at 2.1% year-over-year
* Core PCE price index up 0.2% as expected

Jane Fox : 6/30/2006 8:32:59 AM

* May personal savings rate falls to negative 1.7%
* May real consumer spending up 0.1%
*. May real disposable incomes flat
*. May consumer spending up 0.4% as expected
*. May personal incomes up 0.4% vs. 0.3% expected

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