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Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 1:57:13 AM

Altria (MO) with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 1:57:08 AM

Interesting look at YM from a "wave" perspective Keene (11:26:44). I can envision/see similar price levels with the Pivot Levels too.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 1:28:18 AM

YM 60-minute interval chart at this Link ... Sellers might have thought it a "sure thing" for the YM to have filled that pre-FOMC gap, but it wasn't to be. Move back above MONTHLY Pivot a good long for a "squeeze." I wasn't certain and after trading long at 11,135 exited "too early" at 11,158.

Altria (MO) kisses its MONTHLY R2 $77.15 as YM traded juuuust above its WEEKLY S1.

With slight violation of upward trend, I do take a downward trend from same highs back in May and attach to the 07/07/06 relative high.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 12:56:57 AM

YM Pivots for Wednesday at this Link ... Buyers were firm at the pre-FOMC gap and correlation at DAILYS2/WEEKLY S1 was firm. Last week felt like an earlier-than-usual type of pre-OPEX trade. Today's action looks like it with YM closing right at WEEKLY Pivot.

11,129 once again at DAILY S1, and overlaps MONTHLY Pivot.

Keene Little : 7/11/2006 11:26:44 PM

When I look at the patterns for YM (DOW e-mini) and ES (SPX e-mini) I get two slightly different impressions of what's playing out. Both are short term bullish but the one for YM leads me to believe we'll get a turn back down before this week is over. This YM 60-min chart shows another rally leg coming (but I think we're due a pullback Wednesday morning first). I modified the parallel up-channel to account for price action since the high on June 21st. The price depictions on the following charts are my guesses as to what's coming next. Link

The wave count for this one says another leg up will complete the pattern for the rally from the June low. Based on some internal Fib projections I like an upside target of YM 11440 (DOW 11350 area) for the end of the next leg up. Whether that then leads to the start of a new large decline or just a pullback as part of a larger choppy summer rally can't be known yet.

For ES I backed out a little and am using a 120-min chart to show price action since the May high. In the bounce from the June low I'm getting the impression we're going to get an ascending wedge, hence the price depiction showing all 3-wave moves ahead (as all triangles have). But this one says the push higher will be choppier and take longer than the one I have depicted for YM. Link

Similar to YM it looks like ES should get a pullback early Wednesday and if we get it I'd be a buyer. While this pattern would be choppy and difficult to trade, the upside Fib projection around the 1313 area (SPX 1302) would make for a very nice swing trade to the long side. Assuming we'll get the rally started after a pullback we'll just have to keep an eye on how the DOW is behaving once it approaches its 11335 target area.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 11:17:21 PM

Index Pivot Matrix for Wednesday found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 11:04:25 PM

ETR $73.25 +0.96% Link

BDK $79.80 -1.45% Link

$BPOEX 60.00% (unch) Link

Keene Little : 7/11/2006 10:59:42 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 11:04:12 PM

LRCX $44.60 +4.94% Link

GENZ $57.98 -1.24% Link

CTSH $63.58 -0.53% Link

$BPNDX 32.00% (-3%) Link

OI Technical Staff : 7/11/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Tab Gilles : 7/11/2006 6:43:45 PM

Murphy Oil (MUR)RESEARCH ALERT-Lehman cuts Murphy Oil Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 6:29:33 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Today's Activity

We were swing trade stopped at an adjust stop on the 1/2 position short in Newmont Mining (NEM) at $55.56 ($-1.37, or -2.53%)

Played a speculative long put play into tonight's earnings with four (4) of the California Pizza Kitchen CPKI July $25 Puts (CUH-SE) at $0.30. Earnings don't look to have disappointed and will look to close out at $0.15 if possible.

For the sake of every subscriber's mental soundness, I may be well advised to close out the NVDA Aug $20 Puts (UVA-TD) tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 6:06:02 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 5:43:22 PM

optionsXpress (OXPS) $24.02 -0.20% Link ...

VIX.X 13.14

VXN.X 20.18

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 5:29:45 PM

E*trade (ET) $21.94 +0.41% Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 5:28:41 PM

Ameritrade (AMTD) $14.58 +2.24% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 5:30:58 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Excluding the 1/2 day volume on 07/03/06, NYSE turning about 2.07 billion shares per day on average. (-16% from June)

NASDAQ running 1.73 billion shares per day on average. (-15% from June)

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 4:31:56 PM

California Pizza (CPKI) $27.40 -0.39% ... showing bid/ask $28.11 x $28.45.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 4:30:15 PM

Genentech (DNA) $84.06 +0.39% .... $82.48 ... post session low/high $81.76/$84.90.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 4:29:18 PM

Genentech ... Boosting 2006 EPS Growth View DJ- Genentech Inc. (DNA) after Tuesday's closing bell reported second-quarter net income of $531 million, or 49 cents a share, up 79% from $296 million, or 27 cents a share, a year earlier.

Operating revenue for the period ended June 30 rose 44% to $2.2 billion from $1.53 billion.

Excluding one-time items, Genentech's per-share profit came in at 56 cents compared with 30 cents in the second quarter of 2005.

Analysts, on average, expected the company to post earnings of 47 cents a share on revenue of $2.12 billion, according to Thomson First Call.

Genentech also boosted its forecast for per-share earnings growth, excluding items, to 55% to 60% for the full-year 2006 period. The company had forecast growth of 45% to 55%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 4:22:01 PM

QQQQ $37.64 +0.74% Link .... $37.64 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 4:21:16 PM

Biogen Idec (BIIB) $46.01 -0.60% Link ... $45.20 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 4:20:29 PM

Amgen (AMGN) $66.72 +0.18% Link .... quiet at $66.50.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 4:19:33 PM

Genentech (DNA) $84.06 +0.39% Link ... $81.98 extended.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 4:16:36 PM

C U all 2morrow. I really like all of us on this side BTW.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 4:16:04 PM

Blush - tks Marc.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 4:14:57 PM

I want to compliment Jane on her excellent day trading signals. Good stuff.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 4:14:20 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPY $127.39 +0.42%

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 4:14:04 PM

Economic Reports tomorrow include:

8:30a.m. May Trade Deficit. Consensus: $65.3 Bln. Previous: $63.4 Bln.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 4:10:39 PM

Genentech (DNA) $84.06 ...

2Q Total Prod Sales $1.81B Vs $1.27B

2Q Oper Rev $2.2B Va $1.53B

2Q Non-GAAP EPS 56c Vs 30c

2Q Earnings Alert: First Call 47c

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 4:09:15 PM

Genentech (DNA) $84.06 +0.39% ... lower at $82.16 on headline.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 4:08:24 PM

CPKI ... ticks 300 higher at $27.90

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 4:07:55 PM

California Pizza (CPKI) $27.40 -0.39% ... 2Q Rev $136.2M Vs $119.4M

2Q Same-Store Sales Rose 4.8%

Guides 2Q EPS View To 29c-30c

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 4:07:13 PM

They are not going to do a repeat of June on me, although I think 1534 will hold this week.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 4:06:38 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1527.25, lower stop to 1525.25. Hold over.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 4:06:05 PM

Stop loss adjustement. Looking at tomorrow's pivots, I want to stay clear of s1 on daily and weekly.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 4:02:42 PM

DOW industrials prelim close: 11,134, up 31 points

NASDAQ composite prelim close: 2127, up 10 points

Russell 2000 prelim close: 714, up 5 points

s p 500 prelim close: 1,271, up 5 points

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 4:00:36 PM

RBC Capital Starts Aeropostale At Top Pick

ARO $31.44 +0.51% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 3:59:40 PM

ITT Corp. Board Declares $0.11 Per Share Q3 Dividend

ITT $49.45 -0.90%

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 3:59:27 PM

We are going for the gold on these.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 4:00:41 PM

Day recap total :
NQ +1.5.
Open positions:
NQ long 1527.25, stop 1529.25, +20 unrealized.
NVDA long Jan 17.5 calls at 3.50, stop 1.75, +.30 unrealized.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 3:57:12 PM

I have to leave again and since we are posting now on his side, I am recaping so as to keep track

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 3:53:08 PM

AD line has gone from a low -1200 to high of +852. I didn't think the bulls had it in them. Just goes to show you what thinking does.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 3:50:11 PM

It just rolls off your tongue.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 3:49:18 PM

Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO) $23.49 +0.12% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 3:48:16 PM

Brazil's Finance Minister Forecasts 2006 GDP Growth of 4.5% to 5.0%

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 3:44:57 PM

I thought today would be the perfect environment to fade the ticks because the AD line and volume were below 0 but it was not. Now I need to go back to the drawing board and try to see what I missed. I had an inkling of the bullishness with the VIX but that alone is just not enough I need confirmation at least one other internal and I was not getting it. I guess the market is there to confuse us all isn't it?

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 3:42:48 PM

I have to go, stay long 1527.25, stop at 1529.25. I am not about to get whacked on a dip like last time we got a major reversal.

Keene Little : 7/11/2006 3:38:32 PM

For the DOW, the top of the descending wedge crosses its uptrend line from the June low at 11080 mid-day tomorrow. It's also the area of the previous pullback (4th wave in today's rally) which makes for a typical retracement level to watch for support. If we get that pullback tomorrow morning I'd buy it. Link

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 3:37:08 PM

ES may just close above its 50EMA and that would warm the hearts of the bulls. Link

Tab Gilles : 7/11/2006 3:35:18 PM

Intel (INTC) 120 minute chart. Link

Keene Little : 7/11/2006 3:32:15 PM

The rally from this morning's low looks like a 5-wave move (impulsive) which means two things. First, we're now due for a pullback (looks for DOW 11080, SPX 1265 area) but then second, we'll get another rally leg up. The pullback could take the better part of tomorrow but I'll be a buyer of it.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 3:28:46 PM

Always keep those old trendlines handy, even when broken. INTC found dble support at broken descending trendline from 2006. That puts INTC in the buy zone, fair and square. Huge bounce tiday to get back above 50 dma at 18.47, see chart: Link

Keene Little : 7/11/2006 3:26:45 PM

Both SPX and DOW have broken out of their descending wedges and that's a good sign for the bulls. A pullback to retest (SPX 1270, DOW 11100) that holds will be a good buy signal. The last line of resistance for SPX is right here--the top of its bull flag (downtrend line from July 3rd) is at 1272 so we might get a pullback into the close. If no pullback then it will that much more of a bullish statement.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 3:25:16 PM

Looks like the bulls are going to be able to close YM above its 200EMA and maybe even above the 20EMA. Quite a feat! Keeps me on the side of the bulls for now. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 3:23:36 PM

I hope some of you bought those NVDA Jan 17.5 leaps at 3.50. Now up 10%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 3:23:28 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 3:22:35 PM

NVDA above 19 again, INTC +2.31%, that is all working nicely.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 3:22:10 PM


Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 3:21:40 PM

Rock and roll.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 3:21:30 PM

I might have been cheated out of the June low when I was in last month at 1531 and got stopped at 1529, but this time, I'm in.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 3:18:32 PM


Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 3:18:21 PM

Oh my God, as my daughter would say.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 3:16:41 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 3:14:20 PM

If spx holds up, we will have a confirmation of the inverted head and shoulder and a break above neckline (1280) will set up 1311.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 3:12:43 PM

ES is even more bullsih. Not even a test of 20dma.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 3:12:18 PM

YM is this bullish beast on the daily, holding above 20 dma since June lows. It needs to close below that before bears can claim any victory longer term.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 3:08:57 PM

11157 - 15 = 11142. STop at 11170.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 3:08:09 PM

I'm taking this one short at YM 11157.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 3:07:39 PM

alert +1000 TICKS

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 3:07:12 PM

I will take this candle at the close.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 3:05:40 PM

KLA-Tencor (KLAC) alert CNBC just reporting that KLAC said something positive about orders for the quarter. I haven't seen those headlines.

Tab Gilles : 7/11/2006 3:05:01 PM

Some good news from the tech sector... KLA-Tencor (KLAC 41.45 +2.12) saying it will exceed the top end of its Q2 bookings guidance of 9-11% has improved the overall tone.

Intel (INTC) $18.51 (+$0.33) Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 3:04:20 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 3:00:50 PM

JP Morgan To Open Investment Bank In Columbia By Early 2007

JPM $42.42 -0.35% Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 2:55:14 PM

Hummingbird Acknowledges Commencement of Open Text Offer, Advises Shareholders To Take No Action

HUMC $28.35 -0.14% Link

OTEX $13.84 +2.74%

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:54:12 PM

TRINNQ still in bullish range as is QQV and VXN.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:53:45 PM

Getting weak as we approach 3pm

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:49:04 PM

SMH just a few point away from a bulish engulfing candle on the daily.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:48:11 PM

When will Qcharts give us the SOX back?

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:47:28 PM

QM drops below 74. We have lots of weak hands still in this bounce, but as long as we can keep head above water (1533), we should get another drive up.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:44:43 PM

30 mn chart NQ, note the bounce off 10 ema on the previous candle and how now we are holding 20 ea,. I use only ema on time frames below 60mn. Link

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 2:44:42 PM

Paccar (PCAR) declares 50% stock dividend issued to holders of record as of July 27. Whoa!!

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 2:43:26 PM

NVLS $23.77 +1.92% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 2:43:09 PM

AMAT $15.93 +0.88% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:43:26 PM

20 ema 30 mn holding, that seemed to be the one.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 2:42:41 PM

NVIDIA (NVDA) $18.80 +1.45% ...

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 2:42:34 PM

The last +1000 TICK reading was at 14:28 and YM daily high came at 14:27. Should have faded that last one.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:41:51 PM

1533.50 is next support.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 2:41:46 PM

QQQQ $37.38 +0.02% ... quick decline. Possible realization of KLA action/news.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:41:38 PM

They are going for a retest of October lows.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 2:40:41 PM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $31.77 +2.18% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:40:36 PM

it is also convergence 10 ema hourly chart, so NQ 1536 is shaping up as a big number.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 2:40:07 PM

ADE Corp. (ADEX) $32.10 -1.10% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:39:32 PM

watch 1533 support

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:39:14 PM

Here it is, right at 10 ema 55mn.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 2:39:13 PM

German Regulators Delay KLA-Tencor Acquisition

bizjournals.com Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:35:39 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1527.25, raise stop to 1529.25, lock in +2.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:35:24 PM

If the bulls mean it, they will hold 1533/1534, STops can be moved up now.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:38:05 PM

Ok, put 10 ema on your 5 mn chart and buy on dips, with a tight stop below 20 sma.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:33:22 PM

It would be like 2 days at TRIN 4

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:33:04 PM

In fact TRINNQ rolled down to .55. We had 2 days in a row at 2.9, and that is usually supportive.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:32:24 PM

Not TRINNQ , Jane. It is at lows. I have a strong feeling that the biggest upside will be with techs, the ones nobody wants.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:31:22 PM

5 mn chart has support at 1536, just buy dips to 10ema 5mn if not in, as long as oil is below 74.20.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 2:31:08 PM

This entire little rally we just saw and TRIN did not budge. Now I may put more emphasis on the VIX than the TRIN but it should have at least made a lower low but it didn't. As a matter of fact it is testing daily highs at 1.30. This should concern the bulls.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:30:16 PM

buy this dip

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:29:30 PM

i did get my wish QM drops below 74.20,

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:26:47 PM

+1200 tick

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:24:56 PM

if only oil would drop.

Keene Little : 7/11/2006 2:24:08 PM

The same pattern for SPX has the top of its wedge (downtrend line from July 6th) near 1270. This one actually looks like the pattern has finished to the downside (5 internal waves) and based on it I would say we should be looking for a breakout above that line. A move above the downtrend line followed by a retest would be a great setup for a long play. But first watch out for a reactionary pullback that could start another leg down.

I'm thinking we'll see a rally back up to the top of its parallel channel that I showed at 10:32 which would mean SPX 1300 could be the upside target. That's the potential I see anyway. Other than a scalp short at the downtrend lines I'd be leaning to the long side (buy the dips) rather than the short side.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:23:24 PM

I just want a close above Q 37.33. Then I hold over.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:22:42 PM


Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:22:18 PM

Expect 1534 area to be retested.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:21:26 PM

Support is now old gap open at 1531.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 2:21:19 PM

Altria (MO) $77.84 +0.64% ... sessiion low of $77.13 just missed raised bullish stop on 3/4 long position. MONTHLY R2 did its job.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:20:29 PM

We just won 1000 advances on Nasdaq. Not positive yet, but a far cry from where we were and this is the close, which is even better. It should leave us with a nice tail.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 2:20:06 PM

I think this is intra-day short covering. Bears probably "counting" on gap fill today, didn't get it.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:19:07 PM

The manager at Oaktree wrote a very interesting article on market multiple valuation for big cap techs. I think he is spot on, although this is a minority point of vue (even better). We have not seen these prices since 1995 on a p/e basis and we are grwoing much faster. Here it is if you are interested: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 2:18:57 PM

Exiting a YM long 11,158.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 2:17:41 PM



Keene Little : 7/11/2006 2:17:02 PM

The DOW is comfortably above its uptrend line from the June low and the bottom of the descending wedge I showed earlier (10:40) and resistance now is at its shorter term downtrend line from July 6th (top of the descending wedge) until 11112. This descending wedge might get another leg down inside it so watch that level for a short play to set up. Otherwise a break above it that sticks will be a good buy signal.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:16:23 PM

Burn this on your forehead: never short a market that has a green SOX, unless you are just scalping.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:15:09 PM

Trade is now +13

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:14:59 PM

Note for new subscribers: NQ has a 20 multiple (each point is $20 per contract).

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:14:00 PM

Weekly s1 (where we entered) to weekly r1 (1588) is +60.75 points and we will get it, if we move above 1565.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:12:38 PM

Just add contracts to it on dips.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 2:12:32 PM

Novellus (NVLS) $23.67 +1.45% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:12:26 PM

Do you want to take +11 now? I don;t. This thing is going higher, much higher. We have a September contract and with a little help from our short friends, we could get a +100 NQ trade by August.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 2:12:11 PM

Applied Materials (AMAT) $15.92 +0.82% ...

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 2:11:02 PM

ES runs into its daily highs and gets stopped but the VIX is plunging to new daily lows so those highs will probably not hold.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 2:10:48 PM

KLA-Tencor (KLAC) $40.98 +4.10% ... looks to be the catalyst.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:10:42 PM

Folks this is NOT 2000 when everyone was still bullish on the way down. I have rarely seen such bearishness on a bull market correction. It could be the sweetest trade of the year.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 2:10:02 PM

BIIIIIG volume for the QQQQ with 5.4 million changing hands 15-minutes ago.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 2:10:00 PM

alert +1000 TICKS

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:09:44 PM

Oh, the wonderful short covering we could see in the coming days. Everyone has been bearish since last week, and I mean everyone.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:08:47 PM

QQQQ behaving well and holding 37.33

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:07:33 PM

Darn oil is holding back the bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 2:06:52 PM

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 2:05:23 PM

These two have diverged, something you don't see all that often. I read this as quite bullish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 2:04:20 PM

EIA: Sees Coal Use For Electricity Growing 0.3% in 2006

EIA: Sees Coal Use For Electricity Growing 1.6% in 2007

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:03:47 PM

TRINNQ is now at a bullish .75. QQV is at low end of range.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 2:03:14 PM

Marc do you see a MACD bullish divergence on the daily charts? I can't see it.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 2:03:14 PM

EIA: Sees 2006 U.S. Coal Production Growing 1% Over 2005

EIA: Sees 2007 U.S. Coal Production Growing 1.2% Over 2006

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:03:16 PM

Not out of the woods, we need QQQQ 37.33 to hold for a second tier of buyers to come. This was just short covering.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:02:14 PM

This is why I had that buy stop in. Sometimes, it is the best way to catch it while minimiziung risk.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:01:38 PM

Crystal clear bullish divergence on NDX/QQQQ daily new low and that was present yesterday as well.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 2:01:32 PM

EIA: Sees High Gas, Oil Prices Driving U.S. Demand for Coal

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 2:00:56 PM

NQ is the only market to make a new daily high so far. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:00:31 PM

Wacth QM

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:00:24 PM


Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 2:00:11 PM

QQQQ at October lows. MUST hold. 37.33.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:59:28 PM

Thise of you who took the NVDA trade at 18.36 are looking at a nice bounce. The January 17.5 call was at 3.5 and should hold up for a bit now. NVDA now at 18.70.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 1:59:14 PM

VIX 13.90 -0.85%

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 1:58:41 PM

QQQQ $37.38 +0.05% ... gets green and also juuuuust back above my looooong-term upward trend.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:58:19 PM

INTC up 1%

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 1:58:03 PM

Funny how the VIX was keeping me away from the short side.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:58:03 PM

YOu're right Jane, but I think it also was stelling us the volume bias was on the upside

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 1:57:32 PM

Back at MONTHLY Pivot and just under my upward trend.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:57:19 PM

Don;t mess with a green SOX

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 1:57:06 PM

We have had 4 +1000 TICK readings give us a profit but this one did not.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:57:04 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1527.25, raise stop to even.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:56:57 PM

Finally, the Tuesday reversal is under way, right at the programn trading window Jim used to talk about.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 1:56:56 PM

YM alert 11,137

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:56:19 PM

no problem, we are making new highs with tick staying above 700

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:56:00 PM

the key now is to look for a tick divergence: support of lower low is with higher tick, resistance if higher price is lower tick

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:55:10 PM

Jane, sometimes a +1000 tick if repeated means big buyers coming

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 1:54:23 PM

Is that alert working??

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:54:16 PM

yep, 3rd time was a charm

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 1:54:10 PM

alert Another +1000 TICKS

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 1:53:27 PM

Limit at 11118 - 15 = 11103. STop at 11130.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:53:19 PM

Ticks building, Jane.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:52:38 PM

when the SOX i sgreen, the downside gets limited. but we are still far away from the close

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 1:51:52 PM

YM short at 11118.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:51:51 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1527.25, raise stop to 1526.25.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:51:30 PM

+2.5 partial now

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 1:51:11 PM

IF long time to get out of dodge.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:51:05 PM

Watch out for that QM bid again.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:50:48 PM

3rd time above weekly s1. This should do it.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 1:50:36 PM

alert +1000 TICKS

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:50:34 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1527.25, raise stop to 1525.25.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:49:59 PM

above weekly S1

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:49:52 PM

Early trigger as I come back.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:49:42 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1527.25, stop 1524.25

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 1:47:09 PM

NASD warns investors to watch out for new investment scams

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 1:47:06 PM

CUHSE are $0.15 x $0.35 .... with CPKI $26.56. These are thinly traded options.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 1:46:43 PM

AD volume making new daily lows has me salivating to go short but then I look at the VIX testing daily lows and I back off.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 1:43:07 PM

Filled alert at $0.30 on the CUHSE ... CPKI $26.47 -3.78% ...

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 1:40:47 PM

VIX testing daily lows and TRIN testing daily highs. I put more emphasis on the VIX.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 1:39:53 PM

Swing trade speculate put alert .... for four (4) of the California Pizza CPKI July $25 Puts (CUH-SE) at a LIMIT PRICE of $0.30.

Target any type of gap below $25.00.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 1:35:48 PM

CPKI ... July "Max Pain Theory" tabulated at $25.00 ($2.50 increments).

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 1:33:17 PM

CPKI trades put options too. Has the right number of letters in its stock symbol if you were to ask me.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 1:31:48 PM

Hmmm .... California Pizza (CPKI) $26.51 -3.63% ... doesn't look like MARKET expecting a bullish suprise here.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 1:29:54 PM

Genentech (DNA) $83.83 +0.11% ... after-the bell.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 1:29:06 PM

Really kicking myself for not buying gold at 628 last night. I had my TWS all fired up and just didn't pull the trigger. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 1:28:49 PM

Today's Earnings Calendar Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:27:26 PM

I have to step away again. Still looking for that reversal play. I can;t monitor every second, so the buy stop is still the best trade.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:26:51 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Buy stop at 1528, stop 1526.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:25:51 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 1:23:53 PM

NEW YORK - Allied World Assurance Holdings, a Bermuda-based property and casualty insurer, is set to go public next week in a sale of 8.8 million shares.

Like a number of other Bermuda-based insurers, Allied was formed in the aftermath of Sept. 11, 2001 by a group of investors who recognized surging demand for casualty insurance and a conspicuous lack of capacity.

Insurers American International Group Inc. and Chubb Corp., along with affiliates of Goldman Sachs, founded the company and remain large shareholders.

In an initial public offering of 15 percent of the company's shares, set to price at a range of $34 to $37 apiece, AIG, Chubb and Goldman Sachs are giving investors a chance to jump in on the specialized insurance and reinsurance market.

Following the IPO, the company said it will have about 59 million outstanding shares. AIG currently has a 23.3 percent stake, and Chubb owns 18.6 percent.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:23:13 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1524.25, stop 1522.75

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:21:42 PM

Distribution here or are we basing? OIl needs to drop.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 1:20:00 PM

GLD $63.65 is 50% of toppy-top 5/12/06 high ($72.26) to very bottom of 06/14/06 low ($55.05).

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 1:17:52 PM

Bid in GLD here .... $63.67 +2.64% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 1:15:24 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:13:41 PM

A short here is valid with a stop at 1528. I wil not take it for the monitor, as I am looking for a swing trade. But it is a good daytrade to 1510.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 1:10:24 PM

* NYSE volume 757.3m
* NYSE has 1,166 advancers
* NYSE has 1,985 decliners
* NYSE has 152 issues unchanged
* NYSE has 29 issues setting 52-week highs
* NYSE has 52 issues setting 52-week lows
* NASDAQ volume 955.3m
* NASDAQ has 866 gainers [
* NASDAQ has 2,000 losers
* NASDAQ has 164 issues unchanged
* NASDAQ has 13 issues setting 52-week highs
* NASDAQ has 60 issues setting 52-week lows

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:09:37 PM

There is flush risj to 1505 today. so be careful. BUt the SOX is green...

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:09:12 PM

QM bid

Tab Gilles : 7/11/2006 1:08:32 PM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Hit 1 st stop 10-ema exit $54.95. Next stop $54 level. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:07:38 PM

I mean QM

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:07:31 PM

Wacth NQ

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 1:07:26 PM


Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:07:22 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:06:47 PM

Resistance is 1527.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:06:39 PM

I hope some of you raised your stops as the buy stop was triggered at 1528 and did not lose 3 points. I was not there to monitor and that is always difficult.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:05:55 PM

OIl has dropped below key support at 74.20.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:05:29 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1524.25, stop 1523.25.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:05:08 PM

Another divergence with TRIN NQ. What gives???

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:04:51 PM

TRIN NQ is at 1

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:03:56 PM

ES hit weekly S1 and NQ is sitting at daily S1. The SOX is stil poistive and that is usually a turnaround sign if it holds. QQQQ 37 is massive support.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:03:06 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert
-3 stopped out at 1525

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 1:02:56 PM

We did get that buying which triggered the long at 1528, but it did not last

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 1:02:21 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 1:01:03 PM

This time I should have listended to the AD volume and gone short.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 12:52:30 PM

Seeing that AD volume making new daily lows is so tempting to go short but I must resist until I see the other internals agree.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 12:51:19 PM


Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 12:51:03 PM

Jeff I agree with your analysis of NVDA and the MACD crossover. It is below 0 and all the more bearish. THis also why I am short Dell.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 12:49:37 PM

NVIDIA (NVDA) $18.27 -1.40% Link ... continue to please bears. For those that follow MACD Oscillator, getting a bearish crossover on Daily Interval chart.

Technicians would have to go back to stock's "exhaustion gap" of 08/06/04 for last setup.

Traders follow my recent guidance with August Puts look for the "runaway" gap to develop, volatility spike, to then close out. Target $15.00.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 12:38:48 PM

Cryolife (CRY) shares advance 4.4% to $5.47 following q2 revenue outlook ; sees q2 revs of about $20.8m, up 21% from last year Link

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 12:35:42 PM

Flir systems' (FLIR) shares jump 21.3% to $26.25 on news of bell helicopter deal. FLIR to supply bell w/ airborne multi-sensor system Link

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 12:33:09 PM

Intevac (IVAC) shares up 10% to $23.84 on volume 550,497 vs daily average 393,800 following receipt of 11 orders for lean system. This is another nice looking chart, not a nice as PRFT but pretty good. Link

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 12:24:21 PM

ES is now having an arguement with its previous day lows and cannot seem to break through.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 12:19:41 PM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) alert $63.52 +2.45% ... $63.50 was prior swing trade long target.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 12:18:37 PM

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) $53.17 +0.68% ... seeing an intra-day volume spike of 294,300 shares from $51.97-$52.25 this morning at 10:05-10:10 AM EDT.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 12:15:34 PM

Stopped at 11120.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 12:14:44 PM

TICKS +800.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 12:14:12 PM

I knew I would take some heat on this trade.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 12:11:44 PM

Perficient (PRFT) shares up 7% to $12.95 on higher Q2 revenue outlook and acceleration of organic growth
* now sees q2 revs of $36.6m-$37.7m
* prior q2 rev view was $31m-$32.8m

If I were more bullish on the market in general this would be a very nice long. Great looking chart. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 12:07:58 PM

Swing trade bearish stop alert for Newmont Mining (NEM) $55.56 +2.00%

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 12:07:23 PM

TICKS daily range is +811 to -732.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 12:06:53 PM

Newmont Mining (NEM) alert $55.51 +1.96%

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 12:06:18 PM

Hopefully you all caught my huge foopaw and that AD volume was making new daily lows and not highs. Who would be short if AD volume was making new daily highs????

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 12:05:24 PM

AD volume to new daily lows and as as long as the AD line is ~below -1000 I do not require it to make new daily lows as well. With that said I do wish it would start to fall to put some wind under the wings of my YM short. AD line is not -1000

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 12:04:50 PM

NEM WEEKLY R1 $55.42 and DAILY R2 $55.47.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 12:04:46 PM

Swing trade short adjust stop alert on the 1/2 short position in Newmont Mining (NEM) $55.37 +1.70% ... to $55.56.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 12:02:18 PM

You've probably noticed but I love bear and bull flags and may see them where they don't really exist (remember the bear flag I thought was forming on the Gold chart?). However, we may have some here now. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 12:02:03 PM

EIA: June OPEC-10 Output Unchanged on Month At 27.405M B/D

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 11:59:54 AM

Dell Computer (DELL) $23.08 -1.70% Link ...

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 11:55:33 AM

I am filled at 11104.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 11:56:01 AM

Problem with shorting this market I think I will have to take some heat on it and I don't like taking heat on a trade.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 11:54:08 AM

A +1000 TICK would be really really nice here.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 11:53:35 AM

This is based on the AD volume making new daily lows.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 11:53:08 AM

I am going to try another YM short at 11104 and if filled I will put a stop at 11120.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 11:52:25 AM


Bill Gates, chairman of Microsoft, says there's an 80% chance the company's next-generation operating system, Vista, will be ready in January but adds he would delay the launch if beta testing uncovered shortcomings.

MSFT $23.14 -1.53% Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 11:49:56 AM


Canada's central bank leaves its key overnight lending rate steady at 4.25% after seven consecutive increases, saying the rate is consistent with reaching the inflation target over the medium term.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 11:49:39 AM

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Darden Restaurants which operates the Red Lobster and Olive Garden chains fell Tuesday after the restaurant operator's June sales showed a slowing in sales gains.(DRI)(36.76, -1.65, -4.3%) Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 11:49:28 AM


U.S. chain store sales slip 1.7% in the first week of July compared with the June, according to Redbook Research. International Council of Shopping Centers sales index gains 0.2% in week ended July 8 from the prior week.

Keene Little : 7/11/2006 11:48:48 AM

DOW's bounce off the bottom of its descending wedge near 11030 and the recovery back above its downtrend line at 11048 (just barely so far) is a good showing for the bulls. Now they'll need to hold it. Another drop to new lows may not get reversed. Of course we are in the land of chop and whipsaw so anything's possible.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 11:43:39 AM

Pakistan Condemns Mumbai Train Blasts

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 11:41:49 AM

India Home Minister: Had Info Attack Was Coming, Not Details

DJ- Seven explosions that rocked Mumbai's commuter rail network during Tuesday evening's rush hour were caused by bombs, and according to the country's home minister, authorities had information that an attack was imminent, but did not know the time or place.

A senior Bombay police official, P.S. Pasricha, said the explosions were part of a well-coordinated attack.

At least 100 people were killed and more than 250 others were injured in the blasts, police said.

India's major cities were put on high alert after the blasts, which authorities characterized as an attack.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the bombings.

All of India's major cities were reportedly on high alert following the attacks, which came hours after a series of grenade attacks by Islamic extremists killed eight people in the main city of India's part of Kashmir.

Kashmir was divided between India and Pakistan after they gained independence from Britain in 1947, and they fought another full-scale conflict over the region in 1965.

Dozens of militant groups have been fighting Indian rule in Kashmir, demanding the mostly Muslim region's independence, or its merger with Pakistan.

India accuses Pakistan of aiding the militants, who run training camps on Pakistan's of Kashmir. Pakistan denies the charge.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 11:34:16 AM

I got into that short wayyyyy too late.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 11:33:59 AM

I am lowering my stop on the YM short to 11116 because of the "bullishness:" I am seeing.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 11:33:22 AM

Qualcomm (QCOM) $38.39 +1.56% Link ... session low has been $37.39 and holding bullish support trend.

WEEKLY S1 $37.18, WEEKLY Pivot $38.45 right here.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 11:30:24 AM

Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) $98.12 +0.32% Link .... session low has been $97.02

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 11:28:16 AM

I see the bulls gaining a little here but they have a long way to go to get control back.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 11:24:16 AM

Consolidating at daily lows usually means new daily lows.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 11:23:38 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Monday's Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 11:16:52 AM

Here is a look at Crude Oil Futures. You can call this a double bottom, cup and handle whatever but it is a bullish chart. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 11:04:38 AM

Boeing (BA) $78.90 -1.80% ... moves aggressively into 06/13/06-06/14/06 gap.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 11:03:42 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 10:57:35 AM

Here is how the markets are trading in relation to their previous day ranges. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 10:57:59 AM

NQ-AW $1.85 ... retrace more than 61.8% of 06/12/06 low ($1.40) to recent 06/30/06 high ($2.85).

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 10:56:03 AM

Intel (INTC) $18.03 -0.82% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 10:55:36 AM

QQQQ $37.10 -0.69% ... could be further trouble for bulls here. I've been warning about this.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 10:54:44 AM

Securities Broker Dealer (XBD.X) alert 206.98 -1.33% ... testing its rising 200-day SMA and trying to curl back higher 21-day SMA.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 10:54:00 AM



Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 10:53:13 AM

Airline Index (XAL.X) 53.16 -3.71% ... Merrill Lynch downgraded CAL, LCC and AMR, to "neutral" from "buy," citing valuations.

I (Jeff Bailey) take that as a "take bullish profits" call.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 10:52:08 AM



Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 10:50:39 AM

This is about as bearish as they get. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 10:49:02 AM

Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO) $23.10 -1.49% Link ... some chatter yesterday that RIO may be set to make major acquisition. (AA, or AL).

Tab Gilles : 7/11/2006 10:49:44 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Trailing stop 10-ema currently $54.96, intraday low thus far $54.99.

Sell 1/2 position on drop below 10-ema and 2nd 1/2 at $54 level. Link

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 10:48:49 AM

The VIX and ES (S&P futures) are in sync today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 10:46:58 AM

iShare Silver (SLV) $113.64 +2.52% ... $1-box chart would come close to the $0.10 box chart of futures Link

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 10:45:45 AM

I am short YM here with a stop at 11120.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 10:45:12 AM

Here is a 240 minute look at the YM chart. Both Keene and I are looking at the trendline from the June lows and he is right that an underthrow is possible and that is why I talk about a CLOSE below this line. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:43:55 AM

For those who don;t know, buy stop means a buy that is higher than where we are, you have to enter it as such if programing, or you will get executed lower.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:42:02 AM

I have to leave and this ss the only trade I see that is safe long. It is right above weekly S1.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:41:36 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Buy stop at 1528, stop 1525.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 10:42:15 AM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $63.00 +1.58% Link ... I'm surprised at the "bid" in gold, relative to the budget deficit figures. It may be the bombings in India that give the defensive bid. Not certain on my part.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 10:40:41 AM

YM (DOW futures) breaks its 200 EMA and if it closes here this chart turns from bullish to neutral. A break of the swing low made on June 28th turns it bearish. Link

Keene Little : 7/11/2006 10:40:03 AM

The DOW is closer to threatening a more serious breakdown if it breaks its uptrend line from the June low, currently at 11048. A slight under-throw is no problem but if the DOW drops significantly lower and stays there, the bulls will have a tough battle ahead of them to recapture that uptrend. It could find support near 11030 (maybe a little lower) at the bottom of a small descending wedge that has formed over the past week (which is typically bullish). Could be worth trying a long play soon. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:39:58 AM


Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:39:45 AM

not working yet

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:39:37 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:38:22 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
LOng 1525.50, stop 1523.50.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 10:38:11 AM

Budget Deficit Drops $296B Under Estimate

AP Story Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:37:48 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 10:37:42 AM

AD line is now -1031 and that is bearish.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:37:04 AM

There is just too much support at QQQQ 37.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:36:37 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1525, stop 1523

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:35:26 AM

lower low, bull divergence and ES close to weekly S1

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 10:35:12 AM

VIX even breaks its previous day highs.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:35:09 AM

scratch that. NQ has the biggest potential

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 10:34:44 AM

WE now have the internals in sync, AD line and volume to new daily lows and VIX to new daily highs.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:34:28 AM

switch ot ES

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:34:18 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 10:32:58 AM

Well if the bulls are going to gain control today they are taking their time about it. All markets to new daily lows.

Keene Little : 7/11/2006 10:32:40 AM

I posted a chart for ES showing the channels it's been in and here's one for SPX for those who follow cash more than futures. SPX has been in a parallel up-channel since the June low and has been "flagging" over to the bottom of the channel (uptrend line from June 14th). Link

The bottom of it's current bull flag (my interpretation of the past week) intersects the uptrend line Thursday morning (oh joy, more chop until then) at about 1256.40. The bottom of the flag is currently at about 1260 so watch for potential support for at least a bounce from there.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 10:32:29 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 10:31:36 AM

Here is a chart of QM (I am long QM). This chart is certainly making me nervous but the stop I have at 72.60 held yesterday (yesterday's lows were 72.90). This chart looks different from the Oil futures a bit. I will show a chart of the Oil futures later. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:30:13 AM

Have to step away, stop is at even. If we get a lower low, look for ES 1267.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:29:43 AM

Oerferct lower low for NQ with a bullish divergence on the daily. Let's hope it holds. 400K puts at QQQQ 37,. Last night, I counted 1 million puts between 36 and 39. and only 465K calls. This is s upportive, but we were fooled before in May, but I think that was different as it was hedge funds unwinding all that volatility they sold.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 10:29:22 AM

Marc ... You're getting SOX.X quotes/feed?

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 10:28:44 AM

QM is the Crude Oil emini we use to trade Oil.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:27:40 AM

If QM loses 74.20, NQ will hold 1527.25, which is now must hold support.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 10:27:33 AM

Dateline WSJ MUMBAI - Seven explosions hit Mumbai's commuter-rail network during rush hour Tuesday evening, ripping apart train compartments and reportedly killing or injuring dozens of people, police and Indian media said.

Indian television news channels broadcast video of the wounded sprawled on train tracks and being carried through stations. The city's commuter-rail network is among the most crowded in the world.

Mumbai, India's financial center, and the capital of New Delhi were reportedly on high alert.

Mumbai, a teeming city of more than 12 million people formerly called Bombay, had remained largely peaceful throughout the sometimes acrimonious feuding between nuclear powers India and Pakistan and an outbreak of Hindu-Muslim riots in the neighboring state of Gujarat. Since 2002, however, a handful of violent incidents in the city's suburbs have led police to suspect that one or more Islamic extremist groups are operating in the area.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:24:55 AM

I warned shorts to be careful. Tuesday early drops after a Friday and Monday correction are almost always reversal days.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 10:23:18 AM

This is what I call a fish market, just flopping around and not getting anywhere.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:21:45 AM

SOX and BTK green. I have to step aside a minute.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 10:21:03 AM

The bulls need to get their act together or the daily charts will turn from bullish to neutral then to bearish. NQ (NAZ futures) chart has already made the move to neutral but the other three (S&P, Russell and DOW) are still bullish.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:20:43 AM

I will note the stats at end of day today, since we have moved to the market side.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:20:11 AM

QM needs to drop now.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:19:58 AM

Looking better every second.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:19:49 AM

When you do counter-trend, do as I do and move stops up quickly. DOn't be a hero.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:18:55 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1525.25, raise stop to even.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:18:36 AM

If 1527 holds, bulls get it back. watch it right here. Shorts will try attacking this

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:18:06 AM

weekly S1

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:26:57 AM

we made +2.75 already, so risking only 1 point here and still green.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:16:22 AM

+2 partial now.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:16:11 AM

Here it comes. I'm a little worried ES did not hit 1267.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:15:06 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1525.25, raise stop to 1524.25.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:13:45 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1525.25, stop 1523.25.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:12:59 AM

NQ s1

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 10:12:15 AM

TRIn remains locked in its previous day range.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:11:50 AM

Capitualtion day? If that is the case, then the selling comes early and the reversal hits hard soon. If short be careful.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 10:11:43 AM

VIX now confirms the bearishnes with a new daily high.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 10:11:17 AM

Consumer Disc. Spdr (XLY) alert $32.66 -0.85% .... trades 06/29/06 opening tick.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 10:11:10 AM

I missed the YM (DOW futures) short and will try to get in a little higher.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:11:10 AM

I might take that instead.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:10:58 AM

Watch ES 1267.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:10:14 AM

NOt NDX. Dble bottom.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:09:30 AM

New 2006 lows.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 10:09:24 AM

AD line and volume to new daily lows here and the bears are regaining dominance.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:09:11 AM

Tuesday reversal? SOX still green.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:08:36 AM

OIl bid.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/11/2006 10:08:30 AM

Here I am. Hello.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 10:07:17 AM

I have been getting emails that readers are missing posts because they have been on the futures side and not the Options side. So Keene, Marc and I have decided to start making our posts on the options side so readers will not have to switch back and forth.

If you see a post concerning the futures please be aware that it does pertain to the cash markets but with a premium so the numbers will not match totally but the concepts will.

If this does not work we will certainly go back to the way it is now but let's give this a try.

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 10:05:25 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/11/2006 10:03:23 AM

I've been accumulating PHF in the low $9.40's Tab.

Tab Gilles : 7/11/2006 9:41:04 AM

Bill Gross of PIMCO is bullish on bonds. Link

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 9:37:51 AM

Indian media report several explosions have hit Mumbai train stations during the city's evening rush hour. Full article coming soon.

Jane Fox : 7/11/2006 8:37:43 AM

Good morning all. Dateline WSJ Stocks are pointing lower Tuesday after disappointing sales results from aluminum giant Alcoa and a profit warning from Lucent Technologies.

About two hours before the start of trading, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures had fallen 18 to 11158. The S&P 500 futures lost 1.4 to 1275.60, and Nasdaq 100 futures were off 5.25 to 1532.50. Changes in futures do not always accurately predict early market moves after the opening bell.

Alcoa reported a 62% rise in second-quarter profit and predicted strong aluminum demand this year and next. But investors drove the company's shares down $1.50, or 4.5%, to $31.91 in after-hours trading Monday after its 19% sales growth didn't match the expectations of some analysts. Investors also reacted to Alcoa's forecast that its third quarter would be weaker than the second, though the company said the shift is typical for a third quarter.

LU warned that lower sales to U.S. wireless carriers and to Chinese customers would shrink revenue and earnings per share in the quarter ended June 30. Shares in French telecommunications-equipment maker Alcatel, which plans to merge with Lucent, fell 5.2% in Paris midday trading after the profit warning.

Among other stocks to watch, Time Warner expects its AOL unit to sacrifice nearly $1 billion of operating profit through 2009 under a proposed plan to offer the online service free of charge to some customers, according to internal company forecasts. The company, however, is also forecasting that growth in Internet ad revenue will partially offset the expected decline in subscription revenue and ultimately leave the company more profitable.

Check the futures side for how the markets did overnight.

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