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Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 2:43:58 AM

I also know they like to hit all those stops from closing trend in the overnight session. Lately, it has been the pattern. If it doesn't work this time, so be it. But YM already has the bid.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 2:32:12 AM

Stop is tight, risk is minimal. The bullish divergence on the daily new low just can't be ignored, and maybe it won't be in the overnight session. I also think Iran will give in to the UN, which called its bluff in an unusual unanimous vote. The real probem could be the conflict building in Lebanon. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 2:25:55 AM

NQ signal Alert -
If stopped out at 1513.50, re-program the long at 1505, stop 1498.
This is a pre-emptive strike, since futures seem to be basing here.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 2:24:32 AM

I am going to try a little overnight reversal bid. NDX low was 1501.46. If we get stopped here, I will revert to the NQ 1505 long, but for now, there is a possibility the overnight lows are in.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 2:23:29 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1515.50, stop 1513.50

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 2:21:28 AM

I like the way they just snatched up that dip.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 2:07:54 AM

SPX chart covered very well by Linda in the rap.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 1:53:32 AM

Tow days in a row of equity pc ratio above .80 (.82,.84). Haven't seen that since 2004, and at significant turns. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 12:30:33 AM

Since we are into montly charts, one thing for sure, we can't close the month of July below NDX 20 monthly at 1585. We can't, the chart is clear. 1998 or 2000? That will be the difference. IN 1998, we did a couple of months playing below that important MA, but rebounded above at the close. If wed don;t, then we are entering a "short the 20 monthly ma" phase, just like post 2000. I think we close July back above 1585, but that is not relevant at this point. One day at a time. Here is the chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 11:32:39 PM

Keene ... this is crazy. You post and SPX chart, then I post an SPX chart. Can't wait to read your views, see what's up/down.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 12:01:47 AM

SPX MONTHLY Interval chart at this Link (see also 10:25:18 PM EDT)

On this SPX chart I mention Fed activity back in 1998 and I remember drawing up a very detailed (what the Fed did) and market reaction). I think I have that chart on a CD somewhere, as it wasn't a chart I put together the past couple of years.

So... going off of memory, I believe the a nice expansion was taking place, but VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY, the Fed was at a crossroad as to "what the data was saying." Greenspan worked his magic and I think the FOMC raised it target on Fed Funds, but then a meeting later, something happened and the Fed stimulated with a cut, or even 0.50 basis point cut. Something like that.

Then another leg of that great bull market took hold.

And then, with the help of a rear-view mirror, I think the the Fed (Mr. Greenspan) did make a slight error in late 1999/early 2000, when it became TOO FOCUSED on "wage inflation."

Certainly the Fed could not see 9/11 happening, but the Fed's over-action and rate hikes just because of "wage inflation" sure didn't help things.

So now, here we are. Bernanke/Greenspan and the "housing bubble" is deflating somewhat (CME Housing futures show different price trends for different regions). But I tend to defend Mr. Greenspan/Fed action when they had to "over stimmulate" after 9/11. I also defend President Bush's "tax cuts" as further monetary stimulation.

It is like any "cycle." You put a lot of wood in the oven to generate some heat when you're freezing, get things going as fast as you can to accelerate the fire, but then you have to draw back on what you gave it.

With elections coming up, do you really think a Republican is going to say "raise taxes" to cool things off? Not on your life. Democrats are hard pressed to say it either.

Nope ... if falls on the Fed.

The Fed isn't "out to get" the housing market. But Mr. Greenspan noted several months ago that the speculation among buyers was creating the "bubble" and one part of the inflation component.

Yes! I think it was for at least three years that STOCK traders kept calling "the top" in the DJUSHB and many housing stocks. Heck! Those were the "tech-like stocks" that would move $6 in a single session.

Gosh it is getting late, and this stuff is very "fundamental" in nature, but goes with a MONTHLY interval look at things.

I'll snoop through some of my CD archives and see if I can't find the chart of the SPX, where I go date-by-date of Fed activity and SPX response.

Keene Little : 7/12/2006 11:11:56 PM

Similar to the SPX chart I posted at the end of the day on Wednesday this ES chart shows a price depiction that should take us higher into opex week. This is different from what I had posted last night where I thought we might trace out an ascending wedge. The drop to a new low violated that possibility today but it continues to have the potential to stay within a parallel up-channel from the June low. Link

The pullback since July 3rd looks like a classic bull flag with all its overlapping choppy moves. Price found support at the bottom of it in Wednesday's decline. The bottom of the bull flag intersects the uptrend line from June 14th at 1264.25 Thursday afternoon although the uptrend line at 1263.25 could be quickly tested in the morning to then be followed by a rally. While I believe we'll get a rally leg out of this it's too early to tell what it will look like. The price depiction on the chart is just one idea.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 10:48:56 PM

How weak do YOU think today's new buy/sell signals were? Of the roughly 3,000 stocks on the NASDAQ, how many NEW sell signals do you think were generated?

Answer first , then click this Link

Of those 3,000 stocks, there are 100 LARGE CAP that comprise the NASDAQ-100. Of the 100 stocks there, with just 32 having still shown a "buy signal" associated with their PnF charts, how many NEW sell signals do you think were generated?

Answer first, then click this Link

How low can you go? 0%. How high is the sky? 100%.

Today, some Generals left the field of "bullish battle" and some of the troops were carried off too. Keep losing Generals and the troops don't know what to do but RUN FOR THEIR LIVES.

Eventually, the STRONGEST GENERALS will stand their ground, instill confidence in the troops, and the tide will turn.

Yes, a hungry/angry bear is a fierce creature and at some point, he/she will eat enough that even a pesky coyote can move the bear off its kill. But so is a cornered bull when he's been backed up as far as he can be pushed.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 10:25:18 PM

NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) A MONTHLY interval chart with some thoughts and advice at this Link

If you're the type of personality that says "I'm right and the market is wrong," then leave your wallet/purse on the table.

Clear your head, get things under control (long/short).

As mentioned in Monday's Market Wrap, I tend to FOCUS on the NASDAQ markets right now, as this is the WEAKEST market. Internals and Externals.

What I believe, is what I believe.

Right now, forget what I/you believe and trade what YOU observe.

If I believed the NDX found its bottom in June, do you believe me tonight that it has found its low today?

I would hope not!

Long a basket full of SPX or RUT stocks? You should have an idea by now that they seem to be getting "pulled lower" by what the NDX is doing.

Keene Little : 7/12/2006 10:08:38 PM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 10:08:27 PM

Keene, I hope you are not right. I think the economy will weather all this, even the Feds, although that is only if he stops at 5.5% and starts retreating. The huge news that the budget deficit significantly dropped (see that video) has also not been discounted yet. I also think, regardless of any year end scenario, that August will be bullish. The entire year has behaved at exact calendar month opposites from last year. And I think the Vista upgrade is being completely ignored as far as the channel is considered, i.e orders to hardware (semis, ram, video and sound cards) before the launch. We will see, but I will hang my hat on techs more than commodities.

OI Technical Staff : 7/12/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 9:24:21 PM

Keene ... you're not dissenting with me.

Keene Little : 7/12/2006 9:17:32 PM

I'll be the dissenting voice tonight and say that I'm very bearish the longer term prospects for our market. Based on the EW pattern over the past couple of years there's little doubt in my mind that our market is headed for a very significant fall. Short term I'm feeling bullish but the intermediate (say two months out) I'm undecided and waiting for additional price action to give me some more clues.

At best I see a choppy summer rally and no signficant short squeeze setting up. But even with the best case scenario playing out through the summer I see a market top that will last a very long time. The current bounce off the June low has some life left in it, imho, but once it's finished, which could be in July, there's the possibility that we'll start another significant decline. In either case--this month or in Sept/Oct--I will be heartily recommending LEAP puts.

Another possibility is that we're going to be trapped in a market similar to the 1960's and 70's which means a big sideways market for another 10 years or more. But it had some big swings up and down during that time. If we follow that pattern then the next leg down will take out the October 2002 lows. And then rally all the way back up to a new market high and then all the way back down again, with each cycle taking years to play out. Good for traders but a killer for buy and hold strategies. At any rate I believe we're only months if not weeks away from beginning another big leg down. I think the 2nd leg down in the secular bear market is either upon us or soon will be.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 8:42:10 PM

I agree Marc (07:50:38) .... and when they are done, the "buying opportunity of a lifetime" awaits.

It is ALL ABOUT RISK MANAGEMENT right now. Perhaps the MARKET knows something we don't? Remember, the MARKET is NEVER wrong. When the MARKET does realize it is/was wrong, it will tell us.

Catching falling knives can be dangerous. Let the blade stick in the ground, then pick it up by the handle.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 8:37:00 PM

NQ and "hedge fund manager" post. See 05:33:33 PM Post.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 8:36:03 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles see 06:51:37 Post.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 7:54:23 PM

The easy money was lost with the BOJ decision and many think that is what started the sell-off in May and it is culminating today with the announcement. Hedge funds have been using complex positions selling volatility to hedge their foreign wxposure to cheap rates. Now they keep trying to catch up everytime we bounce by selling puts again. It is just building up to be the biggest short-squeeze since 2003.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 7:50:38 PM

Cramer, a big Genentech bull, is trying to pump some sense into the crowd, but the retail guy is not the culprit. This is hedge fund activity, trying to squeeze the last dollar out of this freefall.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 7:41:14 PM

TXN is finding a base, btw.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 7:38:02 PM

Short indices or ETF's when this stuff happens, but scoop up cheap stocks that have value for your IRA.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 7:36:37 PM

As Steinhardt mentions in that video, funds are not smart. They don't really care where things go, they collect their little fees and they have a tendency to throw the baby out with the bathwater. I believe the baby is the semi-conductor group. There will come a time next year when investors will look back at today and wonder why in God's name did they not buy these stocks at or below market multiple. When Vista comes out, you would have already missed the boat. The biggest lie on Wall street is that the street knows. It knows nothing. Otherwise it would never correct and have a docile moving up line. They have no clue and just follow the money, very often late. But they have the billions to afford to be late and are happy with 7% return because their real paycheck is that 1.5% fee. You aren't in that group. As an investor have to use your savvy and think long term when markets fall apart. Not with indices, but with stocks of companies that are rock solid and have huge potential growth coming their way.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 7:21:03 PM

Gold headed for 665 if 635/640 holds. (61.8% [rojection June)

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 7:13:30 PM

Noting that TRINNQ did not go as low as the previous two trading days.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 7:10:02 PM

QQQQ weekly chart and 37 strike: Link , another reason I am looking at 1500/1505 NQ.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 6:54:48 PM

Back. Alert: The trade has not been triggered yet and stays open overnight (Long NQ 1505, stop 1498).

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 6:51:37 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Today's Activity

Closed out the two (2) NVIDIA NVDA Aug Puts (UVA-TD) at $2.10 as this play seemed to be a disruption of late. ($+0.35/contract, or $+70.00)

Observing further market weakness I thought it best to raise the stop on the 100 share (risk managed) Altria (MO) bullish position to $78.25. That stop was hit ($+1.15/share, or +1.49%)

Day traded short a full position in shares of Goldcorp (GG) at $30.86 and based on the DIA trading what I thought a key level, closed out GG shy of profiled target at $30.62 ($+0.24/share, or +0.78%).

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 6:09:35 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 5:57:49 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 5:18:37 PM

As of yesterday's close Keene, there were 32 in the NDX/QQQQ.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 5:20:03 PM

Now envision an army with NASDAQ on the uniform Link and their generals Link

Keene Little : 7/12/2006 5:17:11 PM

Anybody see any bulls? We seem to have lost our bulls. But it's OK, I still see them returning to pasture to munch on some alfalfa before they head back for the barn. The DOW bounced off the trend line along the lows since July 5th and the new lows this afternoon were met with some strong bullish divergences. I was obviously early in my bullish call for today but that early drop this morning had me standing aside. Link

We could get a throw-under below the lower trend line, currently at 10988, especially since we had an over-throw at the last bounce high on Tuesday (very often we see an opposite reaction to a move like the over-throw on Tuesday). But the overlapping pattern in the pullback this past week and the bullish divergences has me more sure than ever that we're going to rally out of this. I'd still be testing the waters for a long play rather than chase this lower.

An even better chart for the bulls is the one for SPX. It dropped down to just shy of its uptrend line from June 14th which is the bottom of a very clear parallel up-channel. The bottom of its bull flag (for price action since July 3rd) intersects this uptrend line tomorrow at 1256. Without looking at any other charts I'd be a buyer of the SPX with no questions asked. Just use proper risk control, don't eat yellow snow, and you know, the usual disclaimers. I really like this chart from a bullish perspective. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 5:11:33 PM

NQ06U updated DAILY interval bar chart at this Link

Today, Marc posted a very informative interview with a hedge fund manager 09:48:27, and for a hedge fund manager to ever disclose a bias is rare. They are usually VERY secretive.

The above chart is "nothing new" and I've posted it recently. The NQ06U is the first equity futures chart to close at a new contract low.

Hedge funds can become ruthless and when they "smell blood" they can become very aggressive.

Not just from the "sell side," as we've seen them become aggressive when its is SHORTS that have been on the wrong side of the trade.

Look at the above chart closely. Once the NQ close BELOW a level, it has NOT been able to close ABOVE the next level higher. This would be a SYSTEMATIC approach to trading levels.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 4:33:27 PM

Monster Worldwide (MNST) $37.83 +1.58% Link

Just opening e-mail today and see one of these Scott & Scott backdating of stock option grant notices (mentioned this kind of thing in Monday's wrap) Link

Remember: Innocent until proven guilty.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 4:19:02 PM

Mcgraw Hill (MHP) $50.21 -2.86% Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 4:17:35 PM

Tribune (TRB) $32.35 -0.76% Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 4:16:32 PM

Gannett (GCI) $55.62 -2.26% Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 4:15:30 PM

New York Times (NYT) $24.25 -0.49% ... bugger is holding tough.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 4:11:22 PM

Dell Computer (DELL) $22.38 -4.44% Link ... slight decline today, but nothing "meaningful" on the PnF chart.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 4:02:13 PM

Economic Reports for tomorrow include:
8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims For July 9 Wk. Consensus: +7K. Previous: -2K.

2p.m. Federal Budget. Consensus: $20 Bln. Previous: -$42.8 Bln.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 4:02:01 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPY $126.02

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 3:55:38 PM

And ER breaks its PDL as well. I figured the PDLs would break today.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 3:54:57 PM

CPKI $27.91 +1.86% Link ....

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 3:53:13 PM

Swing trade put cancel order alert on the California Pizza CPKI July $25 Puts (CUH-SE) ... cancel order to sell $0.15.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 3:51:33 PM

ER tags PDL annnnnndddddd so far it is holding on.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 3:51:24 PM

Good defense and account management with MO trade.

Market participants may be starting to protect profits where they've got them.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 3:50:01 PM

Altria (MO) alert $77.10

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 3:49:18 PM

ER is the only market to not break its PDL but we still have about 1/2 hour to go for it to attain this distinction as well.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 3:49:36 PM

LRCX .... July "Max Pain" $45.00 ($5 increments)

August "Max Pain" $45.00

September "Max Pain" $55.00

December "Max Pain" $45.00

Jan07 "Max Pain" $45.00

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 3:47:06 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - Deutsche Bank took a hard look at what it calls the volatile, uncertain investment terrain surrounding the nation's independent oil and gas drillers, and came up with what it believes is a handful of long-term winners.

While the brokerage warns that dabbling in exploration and production stocks likely requires hanging tough through some near-term bearishness, especially for companies chasing natural gas, Deutsche Bank sees long-term strength in energy prices, which will favor those companies sitting on large, low-risk drilling acreage.

The industry, which has seen a burst of mergers and acquisitions over the past year, is likely to see further consolidation. Independent oil and gas companies are "likely to continue to pony up significant premiums to gain access to visible, multi-year, low-risk drilling opportunity sets," she said...

For all the above reasons, Nome's top E&P picks are Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK); Quicksilver Resources, Inc. (KWK); Southwestern Energy Co. (SWN); Ultra Petroleum Corp (UPL); Exco Resources Inc. (XCO) and XTO Energy Inc. (XTO), all of them started with a buy recommendation.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 3:44:32 PM

Lam Research (LRCX) $42.62 -4.43% Link ... a NDX/QQQQ stock I want to keep a close eye on.

That "sell signal" yesterday and quick intra-day reversal is what a supply/demand trader want to be alert to, especially at bullish support trend. Those are the ones that can get a bear/short sideweays.

This may be the "pulse stock" for the NDX/QQQQ in coming sessions.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 3:38:29 PM

Could this MACD divergence mean crude will not see 76 this week? We will have to see if indeed the MACD does cross down or if this was just a kiss. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 3:37:20 PM

Dow Components (price weighted index) sorted by 07/07/06 prices at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 3:32:34 PM

SPX NH/NL 14:24

Most new lows since 6:23 on 06/27/06

and then 1:34 on 6/13/06

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 3:32:27 PM



Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 3:25:33 PM

The MACD on this 240 minute chart of gold tells me it could retrace back to the bottom of the channel and I may get another chance to go long. Link

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 3:17:46 PM

NQ has already made that lower low and I am bearish NQ.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 3:17:16 PM

The bulls have lost control and I am now netural on ES, ER and YM. I will turn bearish on these markets once the June 28th lows are broken and they make a lower low.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 3:16:31 PM

PMPIX finished yesterday's session at $48.87

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 3:16:02 PM

SLV $115.82 +0.10%

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 3:15:44 PM

RIO $23.10 -1.53%

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 3:14:55 PM

GLD $64.64

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 3:14:33 PM

GoldCorp (GG) alert $30.52 -0.65%

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 3:13:18 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 3:10:44 PM

Here is a 240 minute look at YM. The bottom green trendline is from the June lows. YM broke this line yesterday but I was willing to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt and remained bullish. Today tells me the bulls have lost control. I expect YM to revisit the trendline probably this week and for it to fail again. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 3:03:56 PM

YM right back at its 06/28/06 Close (day before lates FOMC announcement).

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 3:02:46 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 3:00:39 PM

My goodness gracious when was the last time MACD did not cross above the 0 line once all day. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 2:57:31 PM

YM 11,051 alert

MO $77.34

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 2:52:26 PM

Keep your eye on the Russell 2000 future's PDL at 704.90.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 2:48:19 PM

Red Hat (RHAT) $21.90 -0.22% Link ... "holding tough" intra-day.

Looks a bit like another tech-related stock I had been following.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 2:46:52 PM

Key Dates in Microsoft Antitrust Case

AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 2:44:48 PM

Sun Microsystems (SUNW) $4.01 +2.82% ... knock me on the head with an iron skillet.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 2:40:54 PM

OI Newsletter Plays found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 2:26:29 PM

Isn't Domino's public company now?

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 2:25:05 PM

Helps make back some of the California Pizza (CPKI) $28.04 +2.33% debacle.

Would'a, could'a ... with NASDAQ weakness today, just wondering what could have taken place if CPKI had disappointed.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 2:21:55 PM

I had slapped a "dynamic" on the GLD, did the same with GG.

GG should "lead" the commodity, but commodity holding tough at its 61.8% dynamic.

thinking here is that intra-day, GLD becomes the easier short, tight stop just above the afternoon high.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 2:19:36 PM

DIA $110.35

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 2:18:40 PM


Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 2:18:26 PM

Day trade short cover alert for GoldCorp (GG)

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 2:15:59 PM

Day trade short cover finger on the button alert for GG

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 2:13:01 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY)(25.18, -0.30, -1.2%) and Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD)(61.83+0.07+0.11% said Wednesday the Food and Drug Administration has granted approval of Atripla for the treatment of HIV-1 infection in adults. Atripla is the first-ever once-daily single tablet regimen for HIV intended as a stand-alone therapy or in combination with other antiretrovirals, the companies said. The product combines Sustiva, manufactured by Bristol-Myers, and Truvada, manufactured by Gilead. Atripla will be available in the United States within seven business days, the companies said

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 2:10:46 PM

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- Walt Disney Co. plans to cut its film production by more than half and lay off an unspecified number of workers, according to a news report published Wednesday. The trade publication Variety said in its Wednesday editions that Disney would announce within 10 days its plans for cutting its annual film slate from 18 films down to eight. Disney (DIS) (29.99, -0.26, -0.9%) officials could not be immediately reached for comment. Variety cited no sources in its report, but said the Burbank, Calif.-based entertainment giant's films all would fall under the Disney label. That means the company's Touchstone brand may be diminished.

Over the weekend, Disney set a record for debut weekend revenue with its "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest," which took in $135.6 million. But the studio likely is trying to cut the number of unprofitable films in its slate, which usually vastly outnumber hits for most studios

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 2:08:04 PM



Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 2:05:22 PM

Keep your eye on the 7 day ATR. Here they are for the yesterday's close:
ES - 11
YM - 110
ER - 13
NQ - 24

Tab Gilles : 7/12/2006 2:04:04 PM

Weekly EIA Report Link

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 1:54:00 PM

There goes ES's PDL now we turn our attention to ER.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 1:51:55 PM

Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) alert ... testing its 200-day SMA

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 1:47:37 PM

Day trade short entry alert for GG $30.86

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 1:42:24 PM

SPX NH/NL 14:13

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 1:38:17 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- World powers agreed Wednesday to send Iran back to the United Nation's Security Council for possible punishment over its disputed nuclear program, according to a media report. The United States and other permanent members of the Security Council said Iran has had long enough to say whether it is open to bargaining that would give Tehran economic and energy incentives in exchange for giving up suspicious activities, the Associated Press reported. "The Iranians have given no indication at all that they are ready to engage seriously on the substance of our proposals," French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy said on behalf the United States, France, Britain, Russia and China, the five permanent Security Council members, plus Germany and the European Union

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 1:38:00 PM

Disclosure ... I currently hold bearish position in GG.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 1:37:42 PM

Bearish day trade short setup alert ... for GoldCorp (GG) $30.91 +0.58% ... go short on a trade at $30.86, stop $31.15, target $30.52.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 1:34:30 PM

Perhaps the MARKET's psychology too.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 1:33:31 PM

MO $78.03 +0.10% ... my "bullish psychology" got the better of me at $78.25.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 1:32:19 PM

A quick note for YM, is that today's DAILY S2 would mark the lower end of the 06/28-6/29 pre-FOMC gap.

You can be certain their are some "old shorts" still looking for some cover, especially after yesterday afternoon's trade.

A little technical/psychology here.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 1:32:16 PM

I thought this could turn into a "get short and stay short" kind of day.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 1:30:29 PM

I expect a pause - bounce at ES's PDL 1267.50.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 1:29:22 PM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $64.58 +1.23% ... there was a "bad tick" to DAILY S1 of $63.07. Session low has been DAILY Pivot ($63.52).

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 1:26:38 PM

The Russell 2000 PDL is still a ways off down at 704.90 but there is a very good chance it will hit that today as well.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 1:25:28 PM

Check out the "Big 3" BA, MO, IBM with Daily Pivot Levels turned on.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 1:24:36 PM

Now we turn our attention to S&P futures (ES). Its PDL is 1267.50.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 1:27:11 PM

YM is the strongest of all four markets and this low has now turned the daily charts from bullish to neutral.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 1:22:49 PM

That was a pretty pathetic bounce from the PDLs wasn't it.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 1:22:28 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 1:22:12 PM

And there they go!

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 1:20:48 PM

Bulls are scambling to hold the DOW futures previous day lows.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 1:20:06 PM

Anesiva (ANSV) shares rise 6.3% to $7.56 following meeting w/ FDA
* calls pre-filing meeting on pain drug 'successful'
* sees 2007 launch for 3268 pediatric drug if approved
* FDA agreed on additional phase iii trial for adults Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 1:18:48 PM

QQQQ $37.01

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 1:18:00 PM

INDU 11,042.50

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 1:17:34 PM

DIA $110.44

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 1:17:17 PM

Swing trade bullish stopped out alert for Altria (MO) $78.25 +0.38% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 1:12:24 PM

I'd be willing to bet that if you polled 1,000 homeowners in Los Angeles and 1,000 in Florida about the state of the housing market, you'd get two very different responses.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 1:10:55 PM

Maybe a tad early but I am not going to push it for 1 tick.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 1:10:36 PM

Taking profits here.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 1:09:38 PM

Lows so far 11091 :)!!

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 1:08:29 PM

Actually I have a limit in at 11090.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 1:07:18 PM

I will certainly be taking profits at YM's PDL 11088. You can almost guarantee a bounce there.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 1:05:43 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 1:05:51 PM

You know the more I see this price action the more I truly believe we have transitioned to a bear cyclical.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 1:04:14 PM

Thar she goes!!!!

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 1:04:01 PM

1522 has not yet broken.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 1:02:49 PM

QQQQ alert $37.09 -1.46% ... new 52-week lows here.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 1:02:24 PM

I think NQ is going to break its daily and previous day low at 1522.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 12:57:58 PM

Could probably get some type of government grant to study the relationship between housing prices and financial markets.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 12:57:01 PM

Housing prices look strong in Los Angeles.

Weak in Denver and Florida.

Need a market psychologist perhaps?

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 12:55:32 PM

Marc ... you live in Los Angeles right?

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 12:54:28 PM

I am tightening my stop to 11130. This a bad time of the day to trade and don't need to take any unnecessary risks.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 12:52:54 PM

I see Natural GAs and Oil back in sync and moving together now. For a while there I was short Natural Gas and long Oil which was really weird.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 12:51:01 PM

IF INTC breaks that yellow trendline the reverse H&S is negated. That trendline sits at $18.00. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 12:49:56 PM

If they run it up from here, so be it.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 12:48:22 PM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert ... on Altria (MO) $78.46 +0.65% ... to $78.25.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 12:47:44 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1505, stop 1498.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 12:47:36 PM

Lowering my stop to 11135.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 12:47:11 PM

I have to leave, so after all this, I am back to my old signal.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 12:46:47 PM

Just like that.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 12:46:39 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 12:46:54 PM

NQ tests its PDL at 1522.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 12:45:03 PM

VIX to new daily highs and AD volume to new daily lows. I really do think PDLs will not hold today.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 12:42:13 PM

Current CME Regional Housing Futures (May 2007) at this Link

07/06/07 capture at this Link

06/28/07 capture at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 12:41:30 PM

trying another counter saclp.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 12:41:21 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1525, stop 1523.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 12:39:30 PM

Miserable stuff.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 12:39:23 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 12:35:12 PM

Gold is really losing it which fits my scenario of the strong $ weak Gold.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 12:34:28 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -
Long 1523.25, raise stop to 1523.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 12:34:11 PM

Tick divergence on that last low

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 12:33:51 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1523.25, stop 1520.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 12:31:53 PM

I am short YM here 11122 with a stop at 11140.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 12:31:35 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 12:31:43 PM

Consumer Disc. Spdrs (XLY) alert $32.57 -1.03% ... slips below yesterday's lows. Right at intermediate-term trend (if taken from 10/2005 low to recent relative lows)

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 12:29:09 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1524, stop 1521.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 12:28:26 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 12:28:01 PM

The battle between hedge funds chasing the same trade (short) and value investors.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 12:27:27 PM

Black & Decker (BDK) $78.69 -1.39% ... "the tool of choice" among housing construction workers?

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 12:25:21 PM

These two in sync. VIX confirms each new low ES makes. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 12:24:34 PM

Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 614.12 -2.00% .... probes 06/13/06 lows.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 12:23:50 PM

I don;tthink we will hit 1522 yet, maybe at the close. I should have left my stop at 1523.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 12:23:27 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1525, stop 1523.75.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 12:23:00 PM

to the tick. Thanks.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 12:22:53 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 12:22:14 PM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $64.30 +0.78% ... chart I put together a couple of weeks ago at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 12:22:04 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -
Long 1525.50, raise stop to 1524.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 12:21:19 PM

Me thinks PDLs will not hold and that has serious implications on the daily charts.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 12:20:53 PM

Better hold.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 12:20:29 PM

There it is.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 12:20:22 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1525.50, stop 1523.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 12:20:21 PM

All markets to new daily lows.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 12:19:54 PM

YM to new daily lows.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 12:18:23 PM

Tried to get a short off on GG at $31.05, when bid was $31.06 and didn't get a fill.

GG $30.83 in a matter of minutes.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 12:18:05 PM

One hit of lows with divergence and we might get a headfake rally

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 12:17:45 PM

Should have stayed short from 1533,

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 12:17:15 PM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $64.36 +0.84% ... really reversing gains. Kissed my high close/low close 61.8% at $65.19 this morning.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 12:17:09 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 12:16:57 PM

It takes quite a bit volume to move the NAZ most actives from the top 5.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 12:16:22 PM


Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 12:16:02 PM


Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 12:13:53 PM

stepping away for a sec.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 12:13:11 PM

I'm early

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 12:12:29 PM

Now we take it with the drop in oil belwo 74.20.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 12:12:16 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1529.75, stop 1526.75.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 12:12:01 PM

Genzyme Corp. (GENZ) (63.33, +5.35, +9.2%) said second-quarter earnings rose to $134.5 million, or 49 cents a share, from $123.6 million, or 46 cents a share, a year-earlier. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 12:10:58 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 12:09:17 PM

Lots of stuff at QQQQ 37.33.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 12:07:23 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1531, stop 1529.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 12:05:39 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 12:05:34 PM

Consumer credit too Bob.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 12:03:08 PM

IBM (IBM) $75.43 -1.36% Link ... a 3-lettered technology name that most traders/investors might think has to show some type of bullish favor for the broader sector to firm.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 12:03:07 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -
Short 1533.25, lower stop to 1534.25.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 12:00:22 PM

Investment Technology Group (ITG) $53.17 +4.25% Link ... No news I can find for this specialized agency brokerage technology company.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 11:55:51 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Short 1533.25, stop 1535.25.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 11:55:11 AM

1534 to 1537 is a short zone.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 11:54:49 AM

OI Newsletter Plays found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 11:52:16 AM

Too many calls lining up at 38 all of a sudden. I think we will see sub 37 QQQQ today.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 11:51:58 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Keene Little : 7/12/2006 11:47:50 AM

I've got to go run some errands and will be back later. If the uptrend for the DOW holds (currently near 11070) I'd consider buying this pullback although I must admit I don't like the sharpness of the decline. Test the long side but don't let it go much against you. The current bounce we're getting looks like it's going to lead to new lows.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 11:39:26 AM

Hi-tech Pharmacal (HITK) shares gain 8.1% to $18.59 following q4 financial report
* earns up 11% to $2.1m from $1.9m
* q4 sales increase 3% to $18.1m vs $17.6m
* sees sales up 5%-15% for fiscal 2007 Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 11:39:17 AM

This is pathetic, but so was yesterday's start. I just don't trust it yet, after losing QQQQ 37.33

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 11:38:25 AM

well, off they go.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 11:34:36 AM

Retalix (RTLX) shares down 17% at $16.90
* fall on prelim q2 earnings results
* sees q2 rev of $44m
* q2 net loss of 8c-13c
* sees q2 loss of 1c-6c, excluding items
* results impacted by delivery delays Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 11:34:00 AM

You can put buy stops at 1534 if you want.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 11:33:34 AM

Novellus (NVLS) $23.81 -0.91% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 11:32:52 AM

Applied Materials (AMAT) $15.88 -1.61% Link ...

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 11:32:28 AM

I am reinstating the order at weekly S2 for now.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 11:31:43 AM

KLA-Tencor (KLAC) $41.48 -2.53% Link ... may have been yesterday's bullish catalyst stock.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 11:30:56 AM

Markets are consolidating at daily lows. AD volume and AD line doing a sideways dance at daily lows. VIX moving sideways at daily highs. This all tells me daily lows have not yet been made.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 11:29:31 AM

California Pizza (CPKI) $28.09 +2.51% ... no fill at $0.15 today, and I don't see any call options having traded in the CUH-SE

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 11:28:52 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1506, stop 1498.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 11:28:13 AM

I don;t like this, especially with the SOX red.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 11:25:05 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 11:23:59 AM

SPX NH/NL 14:9

Yesterday's NH/NL 11:21

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 11:23:52 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 11:17:10 AM

ES, YM and ER have all retraced 61.80% of yesterday's range. NQ, the one market that no longer has a bullish daily chart, retraced more than 61.80%. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 11:08:52 AM

If that faols, then I will get in lower.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 11:08:40 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1529.25, stop 1525.25.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 11:08:07 AM

oil dropping so we might hodl.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 11:07:36 AM

CNBC mentioning "boating stocks" broadly lower.

Sounds a bit discretionary to me.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 11:04:30 AM

That would be my signal today. I have to step away.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 11:04:11 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long NQ 1505, stop 1499.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 11:04:10 AM

Out at 11145 for +20.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 11:03:48 AM

AD line is now -1281.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 11:03:04 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 11:02:13 AM

And hanging in there with my STKL calls. Link

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 11:01:17 AM

My DELL puts are doing nicely. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 10:59:08 AM

Excellent demonstration of protecting a gain Jane!

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 10:55:05 AM

Lowering my stop to 11145, the drop is slowing.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 10:53:45 AM

BDK's PnF chart Link

Also see below at 11:04:25 PM EDT

Keene Little : 7/12/2006 10:52:54 AM

Looks like we're going to head straight for that 11075 area. Now the question is whether or not it will stop there. I don't like the straight shot down since it looks more impulsive rather than corrective. Let's get a bounce and then another leg down otherwise I'd be reluctant to buy this. Even a sideways consolidation after this leg down would be a bullish sign. So far I don't like what I see.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 10:52:42 AM

Swing trade short 1/2 position alert for Black & Decker (BDK) $78.74 -1.32% here, stop $85, target $71.00

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 10:52:36 AM

A -1000 TICK reading would certainly get me out quickly.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 10:51:54 AM

So far I see no bulls anywhere.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 10:51:31 AM

Ok I have put my stop at b/e and will be watching the internals for any kind of bullishness to exit quickly.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 10:50:14 AM

Black & Decker (BDK) $78.60 -1.50% ... further defensive.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 10:49:47 AM

Do I dare put my stop to breakeven. I get stopped so many times at b/e I am a little gun shy. Ya I know trade multiple contracts and take partials!!!!

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 10:48:50 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPY 126.88, QQQQ $37.29

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 10:48:49 AM

TICKS -800 puts a little wind under the wings of my short.

Keene Little : 7/12/2006 10:46:30 AM

Ideally we'll see a bounce that retraces some portion of this morning's decline and then another leg down to complete an a-b-c pullback that completes just after lunch. Two equal legs down today that finishes around DOW 11075 would have me buying with both hands.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 10:45:09 AM

I can't trade this today on the monitor, some business to take care of. Be mindful of 1527 support. A break sets up a capitulation event down to 1505 or QQQQ 36.50. For now, it has held up, but it's about oil now.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 10:42:32 AM

Shorts/bears have been angered Bob. Angry bears that smell blood should be handled with great caution.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 10:40:42 AM

We were burned on fading the +1000 TICKS yesterday but considering we had such a nice run before yesterday, I'm not surprized, disappointed but not surprised.

Anyway those trades are valid and the environment we had yesterday was perfect for them but I think yesterday was a very out of the ordinary day.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 10:39:54 AM

Out of the trade. We could be looking at 1505 today. I am going to wait and see.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 10:39:29 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 10:39:06 AM

They will sell it here if they mean it.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 10:37:51 AM

Gasoline futures up 1.08%

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 10:37:36 AM

Or is this just another little stop run push?

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 10:36:52 AM

This just may be your "get short and stay short day." Although the battle between the bulls and bears have made those days quite rare lately.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 10:35:31 AM

WIll we get that capitulation event today?

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 10:35:12 AM

Not good.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 10:33:51 AM



Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 10:33:17 AM

QQQQ alert $37.35 ... right back at my loooong-term up trend.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 10:32:33 AM

EIA Gasoline Inventory down 400,000 barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 10:32:06 AM

EIA Distillate Inventory up 2.6 million

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 10:31:20 AM

And so is Natural Gas.

Tab Gilles : 7/12/2006 10:31:19 AM

Crude fell by 6M barrels Gasoline down by 400k barrels

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 10:31:18 AM

EIA Crude Oil Inventories down 6.0 million

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 10:30:51 AM

Egads Oil just spiked.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 10:28:52 AM

These are very bearish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 10:26:38 AM

Tab Gilles has mentioned longs in RIO, GLD, SLV and the PMPIX so I don't think we need another long in the group.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 10:24:19 AM

Internals are just getting more and more bearish. I wonder if the PDLs are going to hold today.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 10:23:27 AM

This short will not be an easy trade I'm afraid, the TRIN is still bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 10:22:29 AM

GG $31.10 +1.23% .... really out of whack in similar retracement isn't it?

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 10:22:08 AM

AD volume and AD line to new daily lows. VIX to new daily highs. The bears are certainly in control.

Keene Little : 7/12/2006 10:21:27 AM

If we're to get a pullback to around DOW 11075 area and if it takes until just after lunch to get there you can imagine it's going to be a choppy ride. That would actually be a good sign for the bulls since a very corrective choppy pullback would be a strong indication that another rally leg is coming. Be patient for the setup since I think a long play from the pullback will be a rewarding one.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 10:21:01 AM

I will short YM at 11165 and if filled I will put a stop at 11187.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 10:21:26 AM

NEM's was, or still is $54.97 (5/11 to 6/13). NEM $55.84 +0.61%

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 10:19:55 AM

BGO's 61.8% retracement at $5.47.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 10:17:14 AM

You're welcome, Tab. It does bring some sanity to the process to hear a veteran like that.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 10:18:32 AM

AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) alert 351.66 +1.29% ... has retraced 61.8% of its entire top/bottom May/June decline.

Juuuust above 07/03/06 relative high and 07/05/06 opening ticks.

Tab Gilles : 7/12/2006 10:15:26 AM

Marc...thank you for link...great interview with Michael Steinhardt.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 10:14:13 AM

Bema Gold (BGO) $5.33 +1.13% .... edges above downward trend.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 10:13:07 AM

If QQQQ does not hold 37.33 today, we could have a capitualtion event to NQ 1505 and QQQQ 36.50. This is a key day.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 10:12:56 AM

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) $57.80 +4.14% ... for those that may have purchased yesterday, I'd still be more of a long seller at these levels until we get a grasp of pending lockup. Get the feeling secondary prices somewhere around $60.00

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 10:08:56 AM

Then you have the tRIN at a bullish 0.63 and one has to wonder what the heck. If you are wondering then you need to stand aside. Things will clear up!

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 10:07:59 AM

... but you need to watch the AD line as well because it is above -1000. Oh my so much to watch.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 10:07:23 AM

It is getting safer for the bears to go back in the water now. AD volume to new daily lows and VIX to new daily highs.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 10:05:38 AM

Although YM made a new daily, and I like to trade those lows, the AD volume is still above 0 and the VIX was still mid range so I didn't. I see the VIX is now to new daily highs but the volume is still above 0 so I sit on my hands.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 10:04:45 AM

PUTCALL data all over the place with Qcharts. If I lose that, after losing the SOX, I might switch platforms.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 10:03:44 AM

NQ at key support here, right above October lows for QQQQ. This level should hold ahead of EIA.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 10:03:08 AM

Gasoline numbers will be the ones to watch. They will tell us how much was consumed over the holiday. It could send oil right up the roof, or bring it down and end the rally short term.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 10:02:05 AM

YM to a new daily low

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 9:59:33 AM

09:57 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 9:54:23 AM

Thanks for sharing Marc.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 9:54:05 AM

NQ at pivot. It is going to be a touigh day if oil inventories validate the curent bounce. The gasoline numbers will be key, as they held back oil last week.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 9:48:27 AM

This is a very informative video, an interview of on eof the greates hedge fund managers and what he has to say. Very interesting, takes a few minutes, courtesy Bloomberg:
This will not come out as a link, you need to copy and paste in your browser, it's a direct access to the video.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 9:46:13 AM

TICKS hit +800 and the AD line makes new daily highs.

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 9:43:24 AM

Swing trade put exit alert on the two (2) NVDA Aug $20 Puts (UVA-TD) at the bid of $2.10.

NVDA $18.89 -1.5%

Jeff Bailey : 7/12/2006 9:42:23 AM

Dropping coverage on NVIDIA alert

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 9:41:22 AM

VIX confirms the bearishness with a new daily high.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/12/2006 9:40:53 AM

Gold broke out above 640 and is now a buy above.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 9:40:38 AM

AD line to new daily lows and all bullish bets are off.

Keene Little : 7/12/2006 9:37:45 AM

Any time I see an early spike that is in the opposite direction that the futures were headed pre-market, like this push up after the open, it's usually a head fake move. Therefore it should pay to short this.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 9:36:13 AM

Boston, Jul 11, 2006 (MidnightTrader via COMTEX) -- Secure Computing (SCUR) was hammered 38.1% (at 4.99) Tuesday night after guiding for Q2 results below expectations and announcing a major acquisition.

SCUR said it expects Q2 revenue in the range of $38.5 to $39 million, vs. the FC mean of $44.2 million. Non-GAAP EPS is expected in the range of $0.05 to $0.06 per share, vs. prior expectations of $0.10 to $0.12 per share and the Street view of $0.11 per share.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 9:33:01 AM

VIX opens in its previous day range but the TRIN opens well below its PDL and is falling. I usually wait for the first 5 minute bar to close on the TRIN before taking a reading but this is bullish.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 9:31:49 AM

Quite a neutral open, AD line is -304 and AD volume is as close to 0 as it can get.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 9:29:44 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Gold futures opened higher Wednesday, soaring to their highest level in more than a month, as instability in India, Iran and North Korea drove safe-haven demand.

Gold for August delivery was last up $9.80 at $652.80 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, having earlier risen to as high as $653.30, its highest level since May 30. On Tuesday, gold futures gained $17.

Other metals prices also posted gains. Silver added 12 cents at $11.670 an ounce, platinum rose $23.0 to $1,277.0 an ounce and palladium was up $2.10 to $331.10 an ounce. Copper added 10.20 cents at $3.7370 a pound.

Gold's rally has been fuelled by Tuesday's deadly bombings of rush-hour commuter trains in Mumbai as well as by the lack of a breakthrough in the west's attempts to stop North Korea and Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 9:28:18 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Allied World Assurance priced shares at the bottom of their range for the company's stock market debut Wednesday, the latest in a series of insurance firms going public in recent years. (AWH) priced 8.8 million shares at $34 each in a bid to raise about $299 million in its IPO.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 9:22:54 AM

This may put some wind the wings of my DELL puts.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 9:21:02 AM

Deutsche bank (DB) agrees to acquire Mortgageit holdings (MHL), residential-mortgage lender, for $14.75-share or $429m
* DB to close Mortgageit deal in q4

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 9:17:17 AM

Corinthian colleges (COCO) reviews stock-option grants back to '99
* board panel to review option grants - notifies sec of option-grant inquiry

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 9:12:04 AM

The S&P futures closed yesterday above the 20 and the 50EMA but below the 200 and 100EMA so this market is not as strong as the DOW futures. Basically we have the same story here as the DOW futures, the bulls are in control but not strong. Link

Keene Little : 7/12/2006 9:10:04 AM

Using the parallel up-channel for the DOW off the June lows, the uptrend line intersects the downtrend line from June 6th (broken yesterday) at 11076 early this afternoon. Assuming we're going to get a pullback this morning it would make a good spot to buy the dip. A 62% retracement of yesterday's rally is at the same level (11075) and would be typical in an attempt to whip traders out of their long positions and suck in some shorts. The next leg up after that should be a strong one. Link

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 9:06:15 AM

Yesterday's lows are extremely important now and need to hold today. The bulls are working on borrowed time and, although they are still in control in most of the major markets (NQ is the exception), they are not strong.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 9:04:17 AM

All markets are now making new overnight lows.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 9:10:34 AM

Yesterday the bulls were able to close the DOW futures above the magenta 20EMA, the gold 50EMA and right on the red 100EMA and was able to retain some respect. Unfortunately though this market has one more level of resistance before it can continue on to test new daily highs, the July 7th swing high at 11340.

AS I said yesterday I am still on the side of bulls here but they are sure trying my patience so require them to continue to prove to me that they are in control. Link

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 8:54:15 AM

Here is a chart of a basket of currencies against the US dollar. This is a bullish chart because of the higher low supported but the MACD's higher high. This could have some serious consequences to Gold because these two are tied quite closely. Link

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 8:45:34 AM

Dateline WSJ The U.S. deficit in international trade of goods and services increased by 0.8% to $63.84 billion from a revised $63.34 billion in April, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. April's shortfall was previously estimated at $63.43 billion.

The May trade deficit was smaller than Wall Street predicted. A Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC survey of 18 economists had forecast a deficit of $65.30 billion.

So far this year, the trade deficit is running at an annual rate of $763 billion, 6.5% higher than last year's record of $716.7 billion. President Bush's critics say the swelling trade deficits, which they blame on unfair trade practices in countries such as China, have contributed to the loss of nearly three million manufacturing jobs since Mr. Bush took office.

U.S. exports rose by 2.4% to $118.66 billion in May from $115.93 billion in April. Sales increased by $803 million for capital goods, including civilian aircraft. Exports rose by $524 million for consumer goods, like diamonds. Sales of industrial materials such as precious metals were up $766 million. Exports of food and beverages increased by $387 million. Sales of autos and parts fell $120 million.

U.S. imports grew by 1.8% in May to $182.50 billion from $179.27 billion. Purchases of industrial materials from overseas grew by $3.4 billion.

The volume of crude oil imports increased to 323.83 million barrels, up from 293.84 million. The average price of a barrel of crude rose by $4.92 to $61.74, which was a record; the $4.92 climb, in fact, was the biggest since a $6.06 increase in September 1990. The value of crude oil imports increased in May to $19.99 billion from $16.70 billion in April.

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 8:43:56 AM

Overnight Gold continued to add to its gains and is now making new overnight highs. Not sure if that is a reaction to the trade deficit numbers or not.

Oil remains stuck in a narrow overnight range.

TBonds didn't react to the 8:30 numbers much. If the bonds react to a number you really see that reaction on the charts. This is a non-reaction IMHO.

Natural Gas remains in a narrow overnight range. Link

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 8:37:49 AM

Markets did not the Trade Deficit numbers and all made new overnight lows. Link

Jane Fox : 7/12/2006 8:35:02 AM

* U.s. trade deficit up 12.8% year-to-date
* May exports led by record sales of capital goods
* . May imported petroleum record $27.9 billion
* May imported petroleum record 433 mln barrels
* . May non-petroleum deficit lowest since august
* . May imports rise 1.8% on petroleum
* . May exports rise 2.4%, most since dec. 2004
* . May trade deficit $63.8 bln vs. $64.7 bln expected

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