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Marc Eckelberry : 7/14/2006 1:50:55 AM

GE pre-open tomorrow will make or break us.

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2006 1:09:26 AM

YM Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/14/2006 12:20:03 AM

Index Pivot Matrix for Friday at this Link

Keene Little : 7/13/2006 10:35:29 PM

Friday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 7/13/2006 10:00:00 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 8:55:16 PM

Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) Link ... Down 220 points, or -1.46% . Current Low/High has been 14,816/14,915. (See Monday's Market Wrap) Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 8:49:16 PM

Chile's Central Bank Ups Key Rate 25bp to 5.25% As Expected

Sees Need For Additional Rate Hikes

Country's Inflation To Drop Slower Than Expected

Rate Hike Pace May Trail That Of Previous Quarters

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 8:49:08 PM

Iran's President Warns Of Harsh Reaction If Israel Attacks Syria

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 8:48:59 PM

Iran: Captive Israeli Soldiers Not Being Brought To Iran

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 8:48:41 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Today's Activity (see additional blotter)

Swing traded long 1/2 position in the Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) at the offer of $31.51 and was rather quickly stopped out at $30.75.

OPEN Position Stop/Target Blotter at this Link

Note: The SPY-TV play is broken into two parts. I will close out one (1) if $122.00 in the SPY is trade. I will close out the other if $120.50 is traded.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 8:48:24 PM

Bearish swing trade short lower stop alert on Black & Decker (BDK) $76.01 -2.25% ... to $76.55

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 5:34:16 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 5:19:04 PM

NQ next target to buy is 1480, 38.2% projection June. after that, it;s 1465, 50% which is also s2 tomorrow.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 5:23:16 PM

Today was a good example of using discipline in your trading. Yes, I fish for bottoms, but notice how I do it. Move those stops up to even quickly and buy the -800 tick drops. You always get a small pop, and move up the stop taking no risk. It's maddening because the trade was up 25 points at one time! But that is the way it goes, there was and is no way of knowing when the big guns come in and buy.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 5:15:35 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 4:54:25 PM

NDX weekly RSI has not been this low since late 2002.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 4:51:34 PM

The high pe stocks are getting hammered. Simple as that.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 4:50:19 PM

Nasdaq new lows 222, new highs 19. Boom. Black Friday? The end is near either way. I suspect the Q's will be back above 37 next week, but we need a resolution to the conflict in the middle-east, if that is possible.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 4:40:22 PM

It was just too much bad news. Forget October, it;s happenng now. Which is actually just as good, reminds me of 1998. Cramer has a good piece on that. Feds should come out now with an emergence cut. But they won;t because the newbie is a complete incompetent.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 4:38:52 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 4:21:59 PM

U.S. Attorney: Forms Task Force To Look At Several Bay Area Firms Stock Option Grants

Keene Little : 7/13/2006 4:19:53 PM

The DOW didn't close down 200 points but YM is exceeding it now. That's a lot of points lost in two days of selling. ES down 21.25 today is also a big down day for the S&P.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 4:08:09 PM

Economic Reports for tomorrow include:
8:30a.m. June Import Prices. Consensus: +0.2%. Previous: +1.6%.

8:30a.m. June Retail & Food Sales. Consensus: +0.4%. Previous: +0.1%.

8:30a.m. June Retail Sales, Ex-Food & Energy. Consensus: +0.4%. Previous: +0.5%.

9:45a.m. Mid-July Univ. of Michigan Sentiment Index. Consensus: 86. Previous: 84.9.

10a.m. May Business Inventories. Consensus: +0.4%. Previous: +0.4%.

Keene Little : 7/13/2006 3:58:14 PM

I have two horizontal lines on my NYSE advancing volume less declining volume to indicate to me when the selling or buying is getting extreme. You can see that today's selling has moved beyond extreme. But in June we saw quite a few of these days and the larger pattern is starting to become more convincing that funds are liquidating instead of accumulating now. Link

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 3:53:27 PM

DAteline CNN Ex-CIA operative Valerie Plame sues Vice President Cheney, his former aide, Scooter Libby, and presidential adviser Karl Rove.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 3:51:53 PM

From June 14th lows to July 3rd highs ES, ER and YM have all retraced more than 61.80% but not yet to 80.90%. YM however is the closest to its 80.90% retracement. NQ has exceeded it 127.20% retracement of that range.

Keene Little : 7/13/2006 3:51:36 PM

We've seen some serious selling today with declining issues and declining volume swamping the advancers. It's almost to an extreme which tends to mark at least temporary bottoms. That may be true today as well but at this point I've switched over to selling the rallies. This was not a good day at the bull corral.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 3:42:56 PM

ER is now leading the charge downwards and to new daily lows.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 3:38:35 PM


Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 3:37:55 PM


Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 3:36:09 PM

* June budget receipts up 13% to record $264.4 bln
* June budget outlays up 15% to record $243.9 bln
* budget deficit $206.5 bln year-to-date, down 17%
* June budget surplus $20.5 bln vs. $19 bln expected

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 3:26:07 PM

Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) 199.86 -2.60% ... plunging back to 19.1% retracement of April high and recent June low.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 3:24:50 PM

XLY $31.80 -1.82% ...

BDK $75.90 -2.39% ...

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 3:23:31 PM

Here is the GLD 240 chart. Link

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 3:22:17 PM

Just had a request for an analysis on GLD, the ETF I like to use for longer term positions on Gold. My sister has a lot of positions in gold stocks and they are not doing well and that is because the stock market is not doing well. So if you want to take a long position in Gold and not use the futures GLD is the vehicle to use.

As you can see GLD has reached the 61.80% retracement of the decline from May highs. This could be a great place for GLD to stop the rally and "dip" giving us a better entry than right here. Link

So let's drill down to the 240 minute chart, the one I used to suggest a long futures trade at 633. A retracement back to about 61.50 would be a great place to get long again. Or you may want to take a long if/when GLD retraces back to the top red trendline.

So to make a long story short, GLD is bullish but you need to wait for a dip before getting long.

BTW notice now nicely the jtHMA fits on the GLD 240 minute chart HMMMMM

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 3:18:42 PM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $83.11 -2.16% Link ... Have an idea WHAT TO DO IF/WHEN YOU THEN THERE.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 3:17:25 PM

Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) $96.64 -1.94% Link ... I want you BIDU traders to focus to the left, back in June when GRMN first "plunged" to violate that bullish support trend.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 3:14:48 PM

Continental Airline (CAL) alert $29.49 -6.20% ... challenges 07/03/06 benchmark close.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 3:14:10 PM

Lam Research (LRCX) $42.65 -0.09% Link .... holding tough.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 3:08:36 PM

Do not be brave and try to find a bottom. There is nothing here telling you to be long. Link

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 3:06:49 PM

All four markets have a jtHMA red now.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 3:06:48 PM

iShares Japan (EWJ) alert $12.98 -2.40% ...

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 3:06:27 PM

... and on ER.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 3:05:59 PM

Did you see jtHMA has now turned red on ES as well.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 3:05:44 PM

Swing trade put alert for two (2) of the Bidu.com BIDU July $75 Puts (BDQ-SO) at the offer of $0.50.

BIDU $83.77 -1.44% .... target that strike.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 3:05:07 PM

Amazing!!! Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 3:02:37 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 3:01:12 PM

Nothing can stop the bears! Even a TRIN above 2.00

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 2:57:48 PM

Unless the TRIN hits 2.1 like it just did.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 2:57:13 PM

AS long as the VIX makes new daily highs and the AD volume new daily lows the bears have nothing to worry about.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 2:55:56 PM

... but its close.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 2:55:44 PM

NQ the only market to not make new daily lows.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 2:55:12 PM

Altria (MO) $76.63 -0.85% ....

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 2:53:45 PM

NYSE Comp ($NYA.X) alert 7,999.60 -1.39% ... down 113 points.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 2:49:30 PM

VIX 16.93 +16.83% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 2:49:08 PM

CUH-SE $0.05 x $0.25

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 2:48:03 PM

California Pizza Kitchen (CPKI) alert

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 2:47:37 PM

TRIN back to 1.91

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 2:47:17 PM

Consumer Disc. Spdrs (XLY) $31.87 -1.60% Link ... edges below $32.00.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 2:46:41 PM

Internals are still getting more bearish so I don't think daily lows will hold.

Keene Little : 7/13/2006 2:43:59 PM

The small bounces continue to be of the 3-wave variety which are corrective and means we'll continue lower. It could be worth a scalp long if and when ES tests its June 28th low at 1246.50 but only if we're seeing some good bullish divergences there. Otherwise stay short.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 2:43:25 PM

Coca Cola (KO) $43.06 -1.17% Link ... darts to session lows.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 2:39:10 PM


PepsiCo said Thursday that it earned $1.36 billion, or $0.80 a share, as revenue climbed 12% to $8.6 billion amid strength from major brands like Gatorade and Tostitos and emerging markets such as Russia. Company raises its forecast for the year.

PEP $62.17 +1.75% Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 2:36:18 PM

Ford Motor (F) $6.80 -1.30% ... Board of Directors Cuts Their Compensation Feed By Half

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 2:35:07 PM

Ford Motor (F) $6.81 -1.01% ... Cuts quarterly dividend by $0.05 to $0.05.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 2:32:56 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPY $124.65

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 2:30:52 PM




Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 2:17:38 PM

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) $29.50 -0.37% ...

Aug Nat. Gas (ng06q) $6.04 +4.46% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 2:15:11 PM

Merck (MRK) $36.54 -0.46% ... Jury: Merck Did Not Commit Consumer Fraud In Vioxx Case.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 2:14:22 PM

Merck (MRK) $36.42 -0.81% ... Jury: Awards No Substantial Damages In NJ Case.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 2:13:32 PM

Merck (MRK) $36.60 -0.16% ... Jury: Vioxx Wasn't Substantial Cause of Heart Attack

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 2:12:45 PM

Merck (MRK) ... Jury: Merck Failed to Warn Patient of Vioxx's Heart Risks.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 2:12:02 PM

Merck (MRK) alert $36.33 -0.54% ... Jury: Merck Properly Warned Doctor of Vioxx's Heart Risks.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 2:11:09 PM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $65.28 +0.55% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 2:10:28 PM

U.S. Govt Posted $20.47 Billion Budget Surplus in June

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 2:09:37 PM

Merck (MRK) alert $35.85 -2.31% ... Verdict pending In NJ Vioxx Trial.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 2:05:33 PM

SAP Aktiengesell (SAP) $46.85 -6.93% Link ... not what tech needed today.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 2:01:12 PM

Bema Gold (BGO) $5.32 +1.14% ... bucking the gold miner's weakness today.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 2:00:05 PM

I absolutely did not believe ES could test June 28 lows at 1246.50 today but it is within shooting distance now. Link

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 1:56:42 PM

ER is now testing daily lows.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 1:56:41 PM


Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 1:56:22 PM

Swing trade bullish stop alert for the SMH $30.75

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 1:53:44 PM

Campanhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO) $22.45 -2.72% Link ... at the proverbial "fork in the river."

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 1:48:28 PM

Israeli officials say a rocket has hit Haifa, a major port city in northern Israel, The Associated Press reports.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 1:45:22 PM

SPY $124.82 -0.97% ... after kiss of DAILY S2 ($124.72)

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 1:45:07 PM

NYSE volume 749.1m
NYSE has 868 advancers
NYSE has 2,237 decliners
NYSE has 142 issues unchanged
NYSE has 21 issues setting 52-week highs
NYSE has 63 issues setting 52-week lows
NASDAQ volume 950.3m
NASDAQ has 734 gainers
NASDAQ has 2,081 losers
NASDAQ has 116 issues unchanged
NASDAQ has 10 issues setting 52-week highs
NASDAQ has 84 issues setting 52-week lows

Keene Little : 7/13/2006 1:43:04 PM

This could easily end up as greater than -200 day for the DOW. With so many sold puts out there by the hedge funds, there will lots of shorting of stocks today in order to protect their positions. That activity will merely intensify any selling that takes hold.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 1:42:32 PM

Finger on the button ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 1:42:11 PM

SMH $30.84 -0.99% ... DAILY S1 here.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 1:42:07 PM

Can someone play TAPS! Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 1:41:19 PM

Israel: Hezbollah Aims To Move Captured Soldiers to Iran

DJ- Israel has information that Lebanese guerrillas who captured two Israeli soldiers are trying to transfer them to Iran, Foreign Ministry spokesman Mark Regev said.

Regev didn't disclose the source of his information.

Hezbollah guerrillas, who are backed by Iran, seized the soldiers Wednesday in a cross-border raid. Israel has since attacked Lebanon by air and sea, and has sent in troops to look for the captured soldiers.

Israel's army chief Brig. Gen. Dan Halutz warned that "nothing is safe" in Lebanon and said Beirut itself - particularly Hezbollah offices and residences - would be a target.

Hezbollah responded by firing new, more advanced rockets into northern Israeli towns, killing one Israeli and wounding 12 others.

The guerrilla force warned that it would rocket the key Israeli port city of Haifa if Israel hit Beirut, a strike that would be the deepest ever into Israel by the guerrillas - some 30 kilometers.

Israel's signal that Hezbollah wanted to take the two soldiers to its ally, Iran, raised the daunting prospect of a further internationalization of the crisis.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 1:40:47 PM

ES tests daily lows but YM makes new daily lows. I noticed a definate weakness in YM in the recap of the daily charts this morning and it is carrying through today.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 1:39:14 PM

Israeli Officials: Rocket Hits City of Haifa

DJ- Two rockets fired by Lebanese guerillas hit the northern city of Haifa on Thursday, the Israeli army said.

No one was injured in the attack, which was the furthest south that rockets fired from Lebanon had hit, police said.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 1:38:21 PM

Lebanon Asks Security Council To Demand Border Cease-Fire

DJ- Lebanon's government asked the U.N. Security Council on Thursday to order a cease-fire in the cross-border fighting between Lebanon and Israel.

The Lebanese government "calls on the U.N. Security Council to take a comprehensive and immediate decision for a cease-fire and for lifting the siege (on Lebanon)," said Information Minister Ghazi Aridi after an emergency Cabinet meeting.

Israel has intensified its attack against Lebanon, blasting runways at Beirut airport and army air bases, destroying bridges and roads in its pursuit of Hezbollah guerrillas who have captured two Israeli soldiers and fire rockets at Israel.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 1:35:32 PM

My MM profiles aren't going to mess with an SMH July $30 covered call. It is an "option" though.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 1:32:48 PM

I've got a call into the Generals Marc.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 1:31:35 PM

What do you think of California Pizza's trade after a "bullish" earnings report and guidance?

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 1:31:23 PM

The cavalry needs to come.

Keene Little : 7/13/2006 1:30:58 PM

Checking back on the market the bad news that I see (for bulls) is that SPX came back up for a retest of its broken uptrend line at 1256 (got up to 1256.28) and has since pulled back. This is very bearish price action and I would not want to be long. The next big test, assuming the drop will continue, will be the low on June 28th. Any break below 1237 confirms the bounce from June 14th to July 3rd as just a 3-wave correction to the decline from May, and that's not bullish.

One possibility is that this is all just part of what's going to be a very choppy rise higher through the summer, which could include a deep pullback here. The more bearish scenario says we're going to drive to new lows below the June low and that's why I would not want to be long the market right now.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 1:30:33 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1494, lower stop to even.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 1:30:17 PM

30 mn bbands at 34.50. I am lowering the stop. Others, take profits now if you wish.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 1:29:38 PM

Could be a "pump and dump" in the making.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 1:29:13 PM

SPY right back at put entry of $124.96

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 1:28:30 PM

SMH alert $30.97 -0.57% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 1:27:50 PM

some DIVERGENCE at the NYSE. Not what a bull is looking for from the stronger index in my opinion.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 1:26:21 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Tuesday's 01:00 Internals at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 1:21:02 PM

I have to leave. The 2 key ares of support are 1505 and 1500.75. The 2:30 pm turn will tell us a lot.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 1:18:28 PM

SMH $31.04 -0.03% ... after another test of WEEKLY S1.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 1:18:08 PM

Electronic Arts' (ERTS) shares up 2.4% to $43.64 on volume 3.2m vs daily average 4.65m
* rises on plans for new lord of rings game for xbox 360 expects to ship product in late 2007 Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 1:16:22 PM

Intel (INTC) $17.93 +0.27% ... Laying off 1,000 managers.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 1:14:17 PM

Looking at the AD volume you'd think it was a smooth ride down but the AD line shows you that it has not been. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 1:11:29 PM

Hey! Those will also allow a "hedge" intra-day of on the "wrong side" of the mutual fund trade. (UOPIX) as an example.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 1:09:35 PM

Tab will love those ... QID ... perhaps "better" than the mutual fund as this would give an investor some intra-day liquidity.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 1:07:14 PM

This has the look of bear food doesn't it?

If SMH makes a bold move back under WEEKLY S1, dinner could be served.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 1:06:25 PM

must hold here.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 1:05:33 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 1:02:28 PM

SMH with QCharts' DAILY/WEEKLY Pivot levels turned on. 10-minute intervals at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 12:59:56 PM

These charts of the 4 markets are pretty interesting. NQ has closed its gap and even broken above its PDL. ES has tested its PDL but did not break above. ER has made and a new daily high but not to its PDL and YM has not come close to its PDL. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 12:59:17 PM

Bulls might be saying "gulp"

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 12:55:11 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 12:36:09 PM

Some of you might want out on a break below 1505, so you scan put the stop at 1503 is you wish.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 12:35:24 PM

Slight adjustment. 23.6% projection June is 1499, I want a little room.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 12:34:58 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1494, lower stop to 1497.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 12:34:13 PM

IF YOU ARE CURRENTLY LONG the UOPIX from any commentary you may have seen here in the Market Monitor (06/26-06/27), I do NOT think you need an SMH long.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 12:37:12 PM

Sorry about that.

Was clicking through some intra-day charts, saw that SMH volume spike.

Then remembered my observation several days ago and the ICE volume spike.

Old trader's/investors slogan is "Volume proceedes price action." MM Profiles are bearish bias, so throwing in a potentially beaten down beta here.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 12:23:48 PM

SMH is 1/2 bullish positions alert !!!!!

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 12:21:56 PM

Stop typo alert Stop on SMH is $30.75 (not $29.75)

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 12:21:32 PM

NQ closes the gap. and moves above, bullish and support is now clear at 1511.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 12:19:55 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1494, raise stop to 1498, lock in +4.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 12:19:46 PM

Bullish swing trade long alert for the SMH $31.51 here, stop $29.75, target $33.00.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 12:18:55 PM

SMH's Max Pain Theory for July is $30.00 ($2.50) increments.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 12:18:48 PM

20% correction in semis is all the bears will get. Period.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 12:17:53 PM

Let's barbecue some bear. NQ trade is now +20.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 12:17:25 PM

NQ holds 1511, PDL

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 12:17:08 PM

There was a BIIIIG volume spike this morning of 2.0 million shares on the SMH from $31.27-$31.40.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 12:15:37 PM

And techs are doing better now than anyone else

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 12:15:34 PM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $31.40 +0.80% ... test DAILY Pivot again.

On Tuesday, the SMH broke above DAILY Pivot at 01:45-50 PM EDT.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 12:14:24 PM

TICKs +1000 benchmark YM at 10993.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 12:10:40 PM

Those gasoline futures are helping stocks get a lift. Forget oil, that is all the speculators hoping for WWW3, the Armageddon vampires.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 12:06:33 PM

Noting that gasoline is dropping and in the red. That tells me the speculator crowd is in the crude futures.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 12:05:39 PM

If the economy is so bad, oil should fall apart on any good geo-pol news.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 12:03:32 PM

I had mentioned yesterday the July 2005 low for QQQQ, Stops can be moved right below it now, which is a marker at the 11:10 am support low, NQ 1599.75

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 11:59:17 AM

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - Retail stocks sunk in a sea of red in morning trading on Thursday, led by shares of discount behemoth Wal-Mart Stores Inc., amid swelling geopolitical and economic fears.

The S&P Retail Index ($RLX)(429.00 -2.58-0.60%) pulled back to 427.05, off 1.1%, touching levels it hasn't seen since October.

Hammered by a downgrade from Merrill Lynch, shares of Wal-Mart (WMT)(44.23 -0.92 -2.04%) tumbled to a nine-month low. The retailer's stock is also a Dow Industrials' component and is the biggest factor on the weighted retail index. Shares dropped as much as 3.1% before easing up slightly in recent dealings.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 11:56:43 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The dollar was little changed against the euro and yen Thursday with traders nervously awaiting the Bank of Japan's interest-rate announcement.

The Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise interest rates by 0.25 percentage point Friday, which would put the rate above zero for the first time in six years. But speculation has risen in the past few days that the central bank would decide on a smaller rate hike and that the statement accompanying the rate hike may be less aggressive.

"There are numerous rumors about the outcome of the BOJ board meeting and this would seem to increase the likelihood of a significant market reaction to nearly any outcome," said Marc Chandler, currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 11:53:06 AM

I know I need a new one. And the new DELL deals today (see their website) is too good to pass.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 11:52:36 AM

20% correction in semis in the past 2 months, as Briefing reports. Give me a break. As if no one will by a cell phone anymore.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 11:48:37 AM

Not going green yet is actually a good thing as we pile on a few more shorts for the closing action.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 11:48:01 AM

I would at least say a near-term "oversold" signal Marc.

I was thinking same thing as you as I looked at today's ratio of 3.9%.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 11:43:51 AM

161 new 52 week lows for COMP versus 9 new highs. That is also a bottom signal.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 11:42:54 AM


Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 11:40:30 AM

Resistance is PDL at 1511.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 11:40:27 AM

On 6/13/06 the SPY closed $122.54.

The 06/13/06 BPSPX reading from Dorsey/Wright was 46.38% (46.38% of the 500 stocks still on a buy signal).

As of last night, the BPSPX was still in a column of X at 53.82. So demand still in control for this (SPX/SPY market).

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 11:39:33 AM

Just hold on to that long from 1494 if we get above 1505 and stay there. I an thinking 150 points on this trade through the summer. This is a September contract after all.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 11:35:55 AM

Cree Inc (CREE) expects fourth-quarter earnings to lag its previously forecast range of 22 cents to 24 cents a share. The Durham, N.C., semiconductor-materials maker said it also expects its fourth-quarter gross-profit margin to be below its previously reported outlook and revenue to be on the lower end of its forecast. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 11:33:42 AM

SPX NH/NL today's current 2:34 would almost match the finishing 06/13/06 1:34.

Benchmark analysis to price might well be the 06/13/06 close.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 11:31:44 AM

SPX NH/NL 2:34

Yesterday's total was 14:26

Tuesday's 11:21

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 11:31:40 AM

I am rethinking my entire configuration of the year now. I was all fo the light summer rally followed by a decline into October. I am now starting to think we put in the lows for the year. I know, it;s heresy, but 36.36 is a big number, a complete retrace to October 2003. We also had another day with equity pc ratio above .80, that is 3 in a row, and I dare you toi find that in the data CBOE gives us. Three days in a row. Unheard of. Those who are saying there is not enough bearish sentiment are out of their minds.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 11:29:55 AM

ICE $60.22 +2.94% .... breaks above last weeks highs.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 11:24:33 AM




Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 11:24:20 AM

Overnight lows are holding. TRINNQ hit a high of 3.57. now down to 1.35. This is all bottom stuff.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 11:23:46 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Tuesday's 11:00 Internals at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 11:20:54 AM

I am short YM here with a stop at 10978.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 11:18:47 AM

These are about as bearish as they can get. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 11:13:55 AM

Newmont Mining (NEM) $53.92 -2.47% ... perhaps one indication we're seeing DIVERGENCE from Tuesday's trade.

See trade blotter.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 11:08:38 AM

QM drops below 76. NQ needs to hold overnight lows at 1500.75.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 11:08:01 AM

Alert: NVDA Jan 17.5 calls at 3.50, raise stop to 2.50.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 11:07:10 AM

SMH $31.30 +0.41% ... fractions green today and broader-market action have me thinking/remembering Tuesday's trade.

DIVERGENCE, or SIMILARITY may be pivotal today.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 11:03:20 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 10:56:06 AM

Valuation calls will be coming.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 10:55:57 AM

so is DELL.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 10:55:32 AM

Stops stays at 1494, even. I want to stay clear of the noise.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 10:55:02 AM

SMH is green and so is SOX. I noted that divergence earlier and now it is kicking in. INTC is a champ today.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 10:48:35 AM

Bank of Canada Revises GDP Forecasts, Keeps Dovish Stance on Rates

Sees GDP +3.2% In '06,+2.9% In '07,+2.8% In '08

Keeps 2Q GDP Growth Forecast At +3.2%, 3% In Q3, Q4

4.25% Rate In Line With 2% Inflation Tgt In Medium Term

Growth Forecasts Assume C$ In 88.5-91.5 US Cent Range

Weaker Net Exports To Offset Stronger Consumer Spending

Keeps Core CPI Views At 2% Through To 2008

Sees Total Total CPI +1.5% In Q3, +1.8% In Q4

Says Total CPI Likely To Fall Close To 1% In Sept

Risks Roughly Balnaced, Tilted Dn Slightly Later

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 10:44:52 AM

Look at that bullish divergence on that new low in the daily and that big tail belwo. This is looking like the real deal.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 10:43:43 AM

Thanks Keene. In any case, I think we saw the lows today. Big earnings next week and that will hold us up including all those puts at 37.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 10:42:25 AM

Back. Support is now 1505 and folks, this is an important reversal and happened right at the hour turn. NQ trade is +14.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 10:41:36 AM

Another TICKS +1000

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 10:40:36 AM



Keene Little : 7/13/2006 10:37:37 AM

Getting a bigger bounce now so keep an eye on SPX 1256. If the bounce fails there that will be bearish. If SPX can recapture that level that could be potentially bullish.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 10:34:33 AM

TICKS +1000 Oh my aching head!

Keene Little : 7/13/2006 10:33:07 AM

That 36.55 level for the Q's is a big deal. If they can hold onto that, there's a good chance we'll see a bounce take hold from here.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 10:33:02 AM

I need to get some food, this has been like surfing a 10 foot barrel in Hawaii.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 10:32:23 AM

EIA Weekly Nat. Gas. Storage Table found at this Link

Keene Little : 7/13/2006 10:32:05 AM

Marc, QCharts has the feature where it will allow you to run succeeding futures contracts together for a continuous contract. Same for the Q's. Type in QQQ.Q and you'll get the QQQ and QQQQ to run together. The Q's have dropped below the 36.55 low in July 2005 and then next support is not until the April 2005 low of 34.35. For other continuous contracts look in the CompSyms.inf file in your Qcharts directory. Link

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 10:31:53 AM

TICKS +800. Go figure!

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 10:31:49 AM

Let the rest ride. Stepping away for a bit.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 10:31:28 AM

+7 partila now

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 10:30:01 AM

YM Pivot Matrix at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 10:28:38 AM

TRIN falls back to 1.46 and the market's "rally" is probably over.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 10:28:00 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1494, raise stop to even.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 10:27:48 AM

Oh yeah.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 10:27:39 AM

Oh yeah baby.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 10:27:30 AM

NQ is basing above that 36.36 number.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 10:27:04 AM

That TRIN is throwing a monkey wrench into trading today.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 10:26:14 AM

... but no new daily high.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 10:25:38 AM

TRIN back to 1.98

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 10:25:00 AM

Sorry that short should have been at 10960.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 10:24:37 AM

I am short YM here with at stop at 10980. AD Volume to new daily lows and VIX to new daily highs.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 10:23:46 AM

Thank Jane. It was that key resistance in late 2003 and came back in early 2005. Darn

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 10:23:41 AM

SPY $125.00 -0.81%

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 10:23:25 AM

VIX alert 16.00

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 10:21:58 AM

Let's try again. Link

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 10:21:14 AM

Here you go Marc the line is at 36.39. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 10:18:10 AM

My Qcharts is not going past 2005 on QQQQ, someone draw a line at 36.36. That number is in my memory banks as being key.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 10:16:42 AM

QM drop.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 10:15:13 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1494, lower stop to 1492.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 10:14:41 AM

An old friend has just popped in and that is QQQQ 36.36. I will go back in my charts, but it sticks as a key number in my memory. A very key number. I will check it out.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 10:10:44 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1494, raise stop to 1493.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 10:10:20 AM

Markets are hanging around daily lows as the TRIN retreats - this is not good for the bulls and tells me we have not yet made daily lows.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 10:10:20 AM

tick divergence and I am in

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 10:09:36 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1494, stop 1491.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 10:09:19 AM

Swing trade put alert for two (2) of the S&P Dep. Receipts SPY Aug $126 Puts (SPY-TV) at the offer of $2.55.

SPY $124.96 -0.86%

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 10:08:53 AM

That QM bid!!!!

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 10:08:45 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 10:08:40 AM

I just sold my QM long at 76.225 based on this chart. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 10:08:13 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1494, stop 1491.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 10:06:50 AM

Swappping contracts in QM is also giving us an artificial boost, but tell that to the market, they think it;s ll natural.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 10:05:41 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 10:05:28 AM

I should have picked ER to try the long. Obviously YM has not finished its drop but it looks like ER has.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 10:04:55 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1494, stop 1492.

Keene Little : 7/13/2006 10:04:16 AM

When patterns fail, as it appears the bull flag for SPX is failing, they usually fail hard because it catches too many traders on the wrong side. That's why a drop out of a bull flag usually accelerates lower. I'm getting that feeling that this is not going to be a pretty day, unless you're short.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 10:04:04 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 10:02:46 AM

It would be nice to see the other internals starting to turn as well but they just continue to get more and more bearish.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 10:02:38 AM

QM drops

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 10:01:57 AM

TRIN back to 1.98 but not a new daily high so far!

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 10:00:35 AM

But above 1498, we are a buy again

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 10:00:27 AM

Could hit 1480, 38.2% June project

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 9:59:48 AM

Even a TRIN at 2.00 didn't get this market going. Wow!

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:59:24 AM

Nope. COMP June low is R

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:58:54 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 9:58:27 AM

Want to try a YM long here with a stop at 10970? That would be one of the hardest trades ever (for me).

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:57:58 AM

We should reverse now.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:57:51 AM

Bullish tick divergence.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:56:55 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1496.50, stop 1495.

Keene Little : 7/13/2006 9:56:41 AM

It's a Trannie Trounce this morning--down over 2%. The sell off in the securities brokers (XBD), down 2% also, is not a good sign. But the fat lady hasn't sung yet. It'll be the close today that's important. If the bulls throw a Hail Mary pass and score a touchdown over the SPX 1256 line by today's close all will be well. On the other hand if we get a bounce back up to 1256 which gets slapped down you'll want to be short in a big way.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 9:56:31 AM

TRIN high was 1.98.

Jeff Bailey : 7/13/2006 9:56:22 AM

Bearish swing trade short alert for 1/2 position in shares of Newmont Mining (NEM) $54.87 -0.75% here, stop $57.00, target $50.00.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:55:58 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:55:17 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1496.50, stop 1495.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:54:59 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 9:54:36 AM

TRIN is 1.96 time to bail on shorts!!!

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:54:17 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1496.50, stop 1495.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:54:08 AM

COMP june lows

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 9:53:49 AM

Made a mistake in the YM chart I showed earlier. The June 28th lows are at 10970 and not 10940. Support should come at around 10970.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:53:00 AM


Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:52:55 AM

INTC up .11%!!!

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:52:39 AM

At least for NQ

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:52:26 AM

Wow. Capitulation indeed.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 9:52:05 AM

So far all I see is get short and stay short.

Keene Little : 7/13/2006 9:52:03 AM

I'm beginning to hear taps being played for the bull market.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:51:02 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 9:51:01 AM

Internals are just getting more and more bearish but eventually we will get to a point where they are overdone but I don't see that yet.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:50:34 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1498.50, stop 1497.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 9:50:19 AM

Once again TICKS -800

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:49:39 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:48:56 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1498.50, raise stop to even.

Keene Little : 7/13/2006 9:48:18 AM

Here's the SPX chart I posted last night and needless to say, it must reverse the drop this morning. If it falls out of its descending channel and stays there (out of what looks like a bull flag since July 3rd) it will likely waterfall much lower and faster from here. It's also a break of its uptrend line at 1256 from the June low. This is critical price action here. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:46:30 AM

and ticks -800

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:46:23 AM

QQQQ 36.54

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:46:16 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1498.50, stop 1497

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 9:46:06 AM

TICKS -800

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 9:45:50 AM

All I need is the VIX (making new daily highs) and the AD volume (making new daily lows) in the context of an AD line at -1547.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:45:12 AM

Can't read the ticks now

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:45:03 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 9:44:47 AM

This is easy enough - just sell any rallies.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:44:35 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1502, stop 1500.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:44:01 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:43:10 AM

Bear attack

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:42:55 AM

QQQQ low is 3 cents above July 2005 low.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:42:22 AM

Another attack awaits at 1505

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:42:05 AM

SOX only down .33%, NQ .89

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:41:36 AM

Ticks +200

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:41:21 AM

Bulish divergence SOX

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:41:06 AM

Ticks almost green

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:40:44 AM

SOX doing better than NQ.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 9:39:05 AM

TRIN just made a new daily low.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:38:56 AM

Linda did a great rap on the SOX.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 9:36:40 AM

VIX opens well above its PDH but the TRIN opens mid range. That TRIN is a hard one to figure some times.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:36:12 AM

+2 partial now

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:35:36 AM

ticks are improving

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:35:28 AM

Risk is minimal, considering how much upside we could get on an opening reversal.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 9:35:18 AM

AD line is a very bearish -1192 and of course AD volume under 0. I guess you don't need me to tell you which side has the reins this morning.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:34:36 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1501.50, raise stop to 1500.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:33:46 AM

SOX holds 411. ticks lighter

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:33:34 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1501.50, stop 1498.50.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:32:08 AM

Watch QQQQ 36.54.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:30:42 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:29:52 AM

Mr Bernanke, now is the time to come out with a statement calming the markets. Of course, he won't.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:29:25 AM

If NQ can get above 1505...

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 9:27:01 AM

Marc you are probably right but the leverage in the futures is more risk than I like to take. Maybe I will just stay with my Dell puts which is probably a good proxy for the Qs.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:26:45 AM

QQQQ came within 3 cents of the July 2005 low and I think that is why we are bouncing.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 9:25:40 AM


Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:25:02 AM

Jane, I would rather short futures on a bounce then buy puts here. The price has gone up and with equity pc ratio this high, I think it is a very risky play, with not as much control as futures.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:23:14 AM

In fact, I have to go back to 2004 to find that kind of put activity in equities.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:23:51 AM

I need to warn you about the fact that we have had 2 days above .80 on equity pc ratio. Today looks like it might go even higher. These have always indicated real bottoms. Of course, it can hurt intraday.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:18:13 AM

Let's see if 1505 weekly S2 will be R

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 9:18:11 AM

Earlier this week I was thinking about buying QQQQ puts but decided to wait until I saw some more weakness in the other markets. Well I certainly am seeing that weakness so a retracement back to the red support line from June 14 that should now be resistance I will do just that. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:15:12 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1505, raise stop to 1500.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 9:14:54 AM

ER is also holding up better than YM; jtHMA has not turned red and it is highly unlikely it will test June 28th support today. ER is also stronger than ES because the 50EMA has not crossed the 200EMA whereas on the ES chart it has Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:14:48 AM

We should close some of this gap. NOt all, but at least half.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:14:04 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1505, raise stop to 1499.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 9:10:35 AM

Interestingly ES (S&P futures) is holding up better than YM. Notice jtHMA has not turned red yet and ES is a lot further from testing its June 28th support. Also YM's MACD is starting to cross the 0 line but ES's is not. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:07:33 AM

Unless of course, they have the power to hold us up. I think hedge funds have once again messed up selling volatility from the way the markest have been falling.

Keene Little : 7/13/2006 9:07:10 AM

YM chart for my previous post (I hope): Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:06:53 AM

All those puts sold at 37 and 36, SOmeone is going to get hurt.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 9:06:20 AM

BTW notice that the jtHMA has turned red!

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 9:05:48 AM

Yesterday I posted a 240 minute chart of YM and said that I expected the DOW futures to revisit the yellow upward trendline before continuing its fall. I don't think that is going to happen now and will be watching the June 28th lows for support. WE may hit that support today. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:05:27 AM

Good morning Jane. No, it's not looking good at all. Fear is going to be prevalent today.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:03:21 AM

I am thinking crash scenario , not in October, but possibly even today if we can't get up at July 2005 lows. Wacth QQQQ.

Keene Little : 7/13/2006 9:05:20 AM

This is looking nasty this morning. I did not expect to see the futures down this hard this morning. I see two possibilities as I look at this YM chart. First possibility is that the move down from July 7th was a 1-2, 1-2 wave count and we've started a 3rd of a 3rd wave down. These are usually marked with big gaps and a continuation in the direction of the gap. If today is an ugly down day you will want to be short this market because it would mean the bounce from the June low is in fact complete and we're going to get a large pullback or worse. Link

The other possibility is that YM has formed a descending wedge and is in the last move, with an under-throw which is typical. That interpretation requires an immediate rally this morning to get back up into the pattern (so back above 11040 and it's currently 11013). We should have our answer soon. I must say I don't like the very bearish scenario for a lot of reasons (seasonally being one of them) but I'm not going to argue with price.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 9:01:47 AM

Mr Bernanke has now gone too far. Unemployement is on the rise, earnings are slowing and to top it off, we have geo-political concerns around the corner. The consumer does not have to worry about inflation, he has to worry about the price of gas and making ends meet. To raise his credit card debt, his house payment, is not helping. I am so mad at the Feds today, I can barely type this.

Keene Little : 7/13/2006 9:04:30 AM

Trying again, here's the chart of YM for my previous post: Link

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 9:01:03 AM

I am going to scour the news wires for some good news now!!!

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 8:58:29 AM

Dateline WSJ BUSAN, South Korea -- North Korea abruptly pulled out Thursday from high-level talks with South Korea, denouncing Seoul for pressing it on its recent missile launches and warning of "unpredictable catastrophic consequences." The South said it would freeze aid to the impoverished North as long as it stays away from international nuclear talks.

Since the cabinet-level talks between the two Koreas began Tuesday, the South has pressed the North to return to stalled six-nation nuclear talks and ban future missile launches, but the North has showed no sign of heeding those calls and simply demanded more aid.

"We're going to withhold aid until we see an exit out of this situation," a high-ranking South Korean official told reporters on condition he not be named due to the sensitivity of his position. "As to what the exit is, I think the most important thing is North Korea's return to six-party talks."

The South's refusal to address aid at this week's meeting prompted the North to say that "it's not appropriate to hold further talks in a situation where the humanitarian aid is impossible," South Korean delegation spokesman Lee Kwan Se said.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 8:56:10 AM

LONDON (WSJ) - Oil futures hit fresh all-time highs early Thursday as an escalation of violence in the Middle East triggered concerns about stability in the region.

Crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading 94 cents higher at $75.89 per barrel, surpassing last Friday's record $75.78 per barrel level.

The front-month August Brent contract on London's ICE Futures exchange also hit a high, climbing $1.18 to $75.57 a barrel, above its previous $75.09 per barrel high set Friday.

Earlier in the day, Israeli warplanes struck the runways of Beirut's international airport as part of a campaign against Hezbollah, which attacked Israeli border positions Wednesday and captured two soldiers. While the latest developments don't directly threaten the security of Middle East oil supply, growing instability in the region is keeping prices high.

"The market is already jittery about geopolitics and the escalation of tensions in the Mideast only serves to increase nerves," said one oil broker based in London.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 8:55:44 AM

This looks like a capitulation event. The "valuation" call is coming.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 8:54:39 AM

'morn Marc and Keene. Not looking good out there is it?

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 8:54:03 AM

now at 36.60.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 8:53:46 AM

QQQQ should be testing July 2005 lows at 36.54, which is where I think techs will find a footing.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 8:53:29 AM

U.S. weekly jobless claims rise to 332,000

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- First-time applications for unemployment benefits rose by 19,000 in the latest week to 332,000, the highest since May 27, the Labor Department said Thursday.

The four-week moving average of new claims, meanwhile, rose by 8,750 to 317,250. Continuing jobless claims fell in the week ending July 1 by 18,000 to 2.4 million. The four-week average of continuing claims rose by 2,000 to 2.4 million, the Labor Department said. It's the highest in three months.

A year ago, continuing claims and the four-week average of continuing claims were both higher, at slightly more than 2.6 million. Data for the week ending July 8 included 4,000 claims related to a government shut-down in New Jersey, a Labor Department spokesman said.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 8:52:56 AM

Nevertheless, this is a rather huge gap and we should get back into some of it.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 8:52:21 AM

YM at 11K is a big deal.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 8:52:16 AM

Ghosn says a GM-Renault-Nissan alliance could produce big benefits in the long term. He says he isn't interested in a hostile deal. Full article coming soon

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 8:51:52 AM

ES has fallen belwo 20 dma and the picture is very ugly. I'm not sure NQ wil get out of this that easily. We are belwo weekly S2. OIl is on a major bid. SAP has wraned and now we have to see if that is already priced in.

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 8:51:31 AM

Here is a daily chart of Crude Oil. Yesterday I thought that a bearish MACD divergence was building if the MACD crossed but as you can see it was not a cross just a "kiss." These charts are delayed so I will try and get a "real" price of crude later. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 8:49:25 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Triggered Long at 1505, stop 1498.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/13/2006 8:48:58 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
-2 overnight

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 8:47:45 AM

Both Oil and Natural Gas broke their respective previous day highs. I will show a daily chart of the crude oil futures later but I wanted a chart that showed you the overnight action so I am used the crude oil emini, QM. Crude trades on the NYMEX and I don't have a subscription to that expensive exchange.

Gold stayed within its previous day range and is still looking bullish. I am waiting for a dip in this market to get long again, since I missed the last dip.

TBonds also broke their previous day highs putting downward pressure on the yield, which is bullish to the equity markets but the price of Oil has overshadowed this bullishness. Link

Jane Fox : 7/13/2006 8:40:02 AM

Good morning all. Anyone who still believes the bulls are in control should not look at these overnight charts. After yesterday's selloff I expected to see a little retracement overnight or at least a very narrow range. This is not a narrow range and is very bearish. Probably due largely to the price of Oil. That is next Link

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