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Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 12:19:31 AM

(Update) - China 1st Half GDP Growth +10.9% on Year

DJ- China said Tuesday its economy grew 10.9% in the first half of the year from the same period a year ago, which will likely prompt the government to take more tightening measures in the coming weeks to cool the economy's rapid growth.

China's gross domestic product grew 10.3% in the first quarter. Data for second-quarter GDP wasn't immediately available, but is likely to be given during a press conference starting 0200 GMT.

The strong growth data, coupled with recent comments by Premier Wen Jiabao that China needs to prevent rapid investment growth, will likely prompt expectations for a tightening of monetary policy and additional measures to control the property market.

"As long as we continue to earnestly implement various policies set by the central government, continue to strengthen and improve macro-regulatory controls, adopt target-oriented measures to tackle the prominent problems, such as the excessive investment in fixed assets...the national economic development for the whole year will maintain fast and stable growth," the National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement.

Inflation gauges picked up slightly, while investment growth and manufacturing activity remained at strong levels.

China's consumer price index in June increased 1.5% from the same month last year, lower than expectations for a 1.6% gain, the bureau said. Producer prices last month rose 3.5%, up from the 2.4% gain in May.

In the first half of the year, China's national fixed-asset investment grew 29.8% from the same period last year.

Premier Wen said Sunday that China will take steps to curb fixed-asset investment and restrict the expansion of sectors with excess capacity.

Similar comments by Wen have preceded new measures to rein in bank lending and property prices.

Retail sales in China rose 13.9% in June from the same month last year.

Value-added industrial output advanced 19.5% in June, faster than expectations of a 17.5% gain.

The bureau is holding a press conference starting 0200 GMT, which will cover China's economic outlook.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 12:08:16 AM

Hang Seng ($HSI) up 39 points, or +0.25% at 16,104 Link ...

Session Low/High so far has been 16,020/16,105

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 12:06:27 AM

Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) down 250 points, or -1.69% at 14,595 Link ...

Session Low/High has been 14,523/14,747.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 12:01:08 AM

China: June Retail Sales +13.9% on Year

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 12:00:26 AM

China: June Industrial Output +19.5% on Year; Seen +17.5%

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 11:59:50 PM

China: June PPI Up 3.5% on Year vs. +2.4% in May

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 11:58:59 PM

China: June CPI +1.5% on Year; Consensus +1.6%

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 11:57:59 PM

China: 1st Half GDP up 10.9% on Year

DJ- China's economy grew 10.9% in the first half from the same period last year, the government said Tuesday.

The expansion in gross domestic product was faster than the 10.3% GDP growth rate in the first quarter of this year.

The National Bureau of Statistics is holding a press conference, which will further detail China's economic outlook.

Keene Little : 7/17/2006 11:52:50 PM

Today's price action for the 4 major indexes looks very similar. This sideways consolidation is eating up a little more time than I thought it would but it hasn't changed my expectation for a little more downside work before we see a bounce into the end of the week. Link

These corrections, such as the one we've been in since Friday's low, can be very difficult to figure out where the end of it will be so the above price depiction is just a guess based on how the internal wave structure is developing. If ES bounces up to where it will have two equal legs up at 1252 it will also hit the top of its bear flag pattern on Tuesday before noon. If we get that setup I'd try a short play there. The downside Fib projection in that case would be about 1230 so a nice 22 point potential trade.

If we drop immediately lower in the morning then there's a good chance we've seen the end of the bounce. In that case a good downside Fib projection for the next leg down is at 1225 (SPX 1219.34 which would be a retest of its June low).

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 11:41:40 PM

YM 5-minute interval chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 11:31:28 PM

YM Pivot Matrix for Tuesday at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 11:29:05 PM

Flat for now.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 11:28:53 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Keene Little : 7/17/2006 11:25:46 PM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 11:24:07 PM

I think we could get an overnight scare down to 1468/1470. I am considering shorting here, then going long , or just waiting for the long setup.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 11:12:04 PM

Bounce at 1475.75, 50% and must hold, which is why the stop is at 1475. (there was a typo, stop is 1475, not 1575, obviously).

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 11:10:46 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Today's Activity

Stocks/Options I did not profile any stock/option trades. Looking to salvage what we can in the CPKI and BIDU July Puts at this point.

YM Futures

Day traded short the YM at the bid of 10,814 (Stop= 10,830 : Tgt= 10,735) and ended up stopping out at 10,794. (+20 pts, or $100/contract)

OI Technical Staff : 7/17/2006 9:59:59 PM

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Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 9:14:45 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1577.75, stop 1575.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 9:13:54 PM

Ok, that time of day again. At pivot and suport.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 5:07:22 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 4:56:21 PM

DJ- Hezbollah Dismisses Intl. Cease-Fire Proposals

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 4:54:40 PM

Microsoft To Begin Reporting Quarterly Results Based On 5 Operating Segments Starting FY07 (Client, Server, Online, Business Unit, Entertainment)

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 4:52:28 PM

DJ- Israel's Military Decides To Call Up Reserve Soldiers

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 4:46:13 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 4:04:50 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPY $123.35 : YM 10,787

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 4:03:57 PM

NY Mercantile Files To Go Public; Shares To Be Listed on NYSE

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 3:55:40 PM

DJ (03:42:05 Update)- California ISO Sees Stage 2 Emergency 'More Likely'

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 3:54:05 PM

DJ- Rocket From Lebanon Hits Hospital In Safed-Israelis

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 3:52:22 PM

Gannett (GCI) $53.56 -0.16% Link ... after last week's earnings report (07/12/06)

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 3:48:50 PM

New York Times (NYT) $23.00 -2.37% ... Earnings Preview: AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 3:43:12 PM

American Power Conversion (APCC) $17.26 -1.65% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 3:42:05 PM

DJ- California ISO Prepares For Record Crushing Electic Use Monday

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 3:40:57 PM

Rockets From Lebanon Hit N. Israel, Including Haifa-Police

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 3:40:20 PM

VIX 18.44 +2.16% ....

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 3:39:51 PM

NY Times (NYT) $23.16 -1.65% ... gets further defensive. WEEKLY S1 $23.21.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 3:35:21 PM

03:14 PM EDT Temperatures found at this Link

Keene Little : 7/17/2006 3:32:22 PM

Not much happening today and now ES is once more testing the bottom of its consolidation pattern (uptrend line from Friday's low through this morning's low, currently at 1240.50. This should hold since it appears we still need a leg up inside this pattern. But if it breaks down it will probably start to drop faster.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 3:30:38 PM

Texas Sets Power Demand Record Amid Heat Wave

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 3:28:38 PM

BIG Gains to smaller gains on profit taking? Or a shift in sentiment?

$HUI.X -3.50% , OIH -4.67% ... One could argue either. Traders and investors alike have seen BIG Gains turn to small gains, if not losses in recent weeks.

Account management is KEY to survival!

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 3:22:12 PM

Canada's Intl Reserves Up $32M In July 15 Week

DJ- Canada's official international reserves rose $32 million in the week ended July 15, the Bank of Canada reported.

At July 15, the official international reserves totaled $35.868 billion, compared with $35.836 billion at July 8.

The July 15 reserves included:

-U.S. dollars, $17.740 billion;

-other foreign currencies, $16.028 billion;

-gold, $72 million;

-special drawing rights, $938 million;

-reserve position in the International Monetary Fund, $1.090 billion.

All reserve figures are reported in U.S. funds.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 3:12:29 PM

Obviously, we are in a support area and I did not leave enough room. Figures. In any case, NQ will not fall apart and should hold QQQQ above 36. I can't trade this right now on the monitor, as I have to leave.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 3:12:11 PM

YM short stop alert 10,794

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 3:11:17 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -
stopped out -5

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 3:10:55 PM

YM short lower stop alert to 10,794.

YM 10,783

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 3:02:57 PM

SPY 123.47

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 3:02:42 PM

YM ... 10,795

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 3:02:24 PM

VIX alert 18.40

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 3:01:55 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 2:59:19 PM

Day trade short lower stop alert ... for the YM 10,800 ... to break even.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 2:54:07 PM

G8 Leaders Urge Intl. Forces To End Attacks on Israel

DJ- World leaders on Monday called for a new deployment of international forces to stop Hezbollah guerrillas in southern Lebanon from firing rockets into Israel, and the European Union said it was considering sending troops.

Leaders of the Group of Eight meeting in St. Petersburg stressed that the force would have to have a mandate from the United Nations.

"The blunt reality is that this violence is not going to stop unless we create the conditions for the cessation of violence," British Prime Minister Tony Blair said after talks with U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan.

"The only way is if we have a deployment of international forces that can stop bombardment coming into Israel," he said after he and Annan made their call for the forces. The prime minister's office said Blair was referring to an international force that would act as a buffer once hostilities had stopped.

Blair told reporters he envisaged a force larger than the current U.N. force of some 2,000 troops which monitors the Blue Line separating Israel and Lebanon and is charged with reporting violations by either side.

Italian Premier Romano Prodi said Annan was looking to send roughly 8,000 more troops, but that the figure still was an estimate that needed to be worked out.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow would decide whether to contribute troops only after the U.N. Security Council had endorsed the proposal, and Prodi said Italy was ready to contribute in a "significant way" if there were a Security Council mandate.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said, however, that sending troops was not on Germany's agenda. U.S. national security spokesman Frederick Jones said: "We're open to the possibility of that force being necessary."

Israel's initial reaction was cool. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert instead favors Lebanese forces taking control of the area of the border with Israel and wants the Hezbollah militia disarmed, senior Israeli officials said on condition of anonymity because they weren't authorized to talk about the matter with the press.

U.S. President George W. Bush signaled impatience in comments to Blair that were inadvertently broadcast on closed-circuit TV at the summit's international press center when someone left the microphone on at a working lunch between leaders.

"See the irony is that what they need to do is get Syria to get Hezbollah to stop doing this shit and it's over," Bush told Blair in an exasperated tone as he chewed on a buttered roll.

He told Blair he felt like telling Annan, who visited the gathered leaders, to get on the phone with Syrian President Bashar Assad to "make something happen." He suggested U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice might visit the region soon.

French President Jacques Chirac said it was essential to enforce U.N. Security Council Resolution 1559 - which calls for the disarmament of Hezbollah and other militias in Lebanon. He cautioned, however, that "some means of coercion" may be needed to enforce the resolution.

Putin, who had hoped to use the first G8 summit on Russian soil to burnish his country's standing on the global stage, saw his summit priorities overshadowed by the Middle East crisis.

But he put the best face on the three days of discussions, telling a closing news conference that "all the aims which we had set ourselves have been achieved."

On Sunday, after tough negotiations, the G8 issued a statement blaming Hezbollah and Hamas for the escalating violence and recognizing Israel's right to defend itself - although they called on the Jewish state to show restraint.

"For the first time, we've really begun to address with clarity the root causes of the conflict ... and that is terrorist activity - namely Hezbollah, that's housed and encouraged by Syria," Bush said - although there was no explicit referral to Syria in the G8 statement.

Prodi said the eight leaders only managed to agree on the wording of the text because both the U.S. and Russia made compromises. The U.S. position had strongly supported Israel's right to self-defense, while Russia held that Israel was engaging in excessive force.

"If you take Israel, the departure point was much more far away than the arrival point and both of them moved," Prodi said in English. "No one has lost. They remarkably moved."

"We were not guided by diametrically opposing objectives," Putin commented at his concluding news conference. "The objectives were common. At issue was to find correct and balanced language to reflect our concerns and positions."

The G8 is made up of the U.S., Russia, Japan, Germany, the U.K., France, Italy and Canada.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 2:44:10 PM

YM 10,800

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 2:43:39 PM

QQQQ $36.08 +0.38% ... will a break of $36.00 negate a bull's "hope?"

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 2:36:11 PM

YM 10,809 ... just under its DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 2:35:47 PM

VIX 18.20 .... still sitting on top of DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 2:33:30 PM

5-year up 1.8 bp at 5.036% ...

10-year up 1.0 bp at 5.069% ...

30-year down 0.7 bp at 5.104% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 2:32:26 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 373.23 +0.94% ... press best levels of the session.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 2:18:44 PM

YM 5-minute interval chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 2:14:58 PM

YM 10,814 ....

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 2:14:05 PM

US Military: Taliban Kill 1 Coalition Soldier, Wound 11

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 2:10:39 PM

Day trade short alert ... for the YM 10,814 here, stop 10,830, target 10,735

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 2:08:08 PM

Afghan Officials: Taliban Storms 2 S Helmand Districts

DJ- Taliban forces have taken over two southern Afghan districts from local forces, Afghan officials said Monday. Coalition troops confirmed enemy "activity" in the areas and are investigating reports that insurgents have taken "control."

Scores of Taliban fighters on Sunday entered the southern Helmand town of Garmser, bordering Pakistan, and surrounded a police compound, forcing a small security force contingent to escape before taking control of the area, a local government official said.

The official, speaking on condition of anonymity as he was unauthorized to comment to the media, said Taliban forces were now "moving freely" around the town and the district of the same name.

On Monday, a large number of Taliban militants entered another Helmand town, Naway-i-Barakzayi, to the north of Garmser and fought a brief battle with police before they too fled the area, said a local police official, who also declined to be identified because he wasn't permitted to speak to the media.

British military spokesman, Capt. Drew Gibson, confirmed enemy "activity" in both areas but declined to elaborate. More than 3,000 British soldiers are deploying to Helmand to take over security control from U.S. forces.

"We have heard reports of two districts in southern Helmand being under control of the Taliban, and we are in contact with lots of people to build an accurate picture," said another coalition spokesman, Maj. Scott Lundy.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 2:05:23 PM

McDonald's (MCD) $34.63 +4.81% ... set to "serve up" another intra-day high.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 2:04:23 PM

YM 10,821 ... making its third run of the day at DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 1:53:17 PM

iShares Silver (SLV) $110.39 -4.00% Link ...

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $64.59 -1.91% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 1:46:50 PM

07/07/06 to 07/14/06 Sector Bell Curve found at this Link

Keene Little : 7/17/2006 1:40:30 PM

Another possibility for ES is an expanding triangle like YM in which case two equal legs up (it has to get a rally going from here though) would hit the top of the pattern late today. Link

Keene Little : 7/17/2006 1:32:52 PM

If we assume for the moment that ES is forming a slightly different flag, based on this morning's low, then the top of the flag is still near 1250. If we're doing a little sideways triangle consolidation today (for wave-b), then wave-c up (assuming wave-b just finished) is at 1254. Wave-c = 62% of wave-a at 1249.25 and that's the first level I'd watch for failure, especially since it's near the top of the flag. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 1:26:48 PM

SPY $123.77 +0.20% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 1:26:28 PM

CNN- U.S. State Department: Rice To Travel To Middle East

Keene Little : 7/17/2006 1:25:17 PM

ES is kind of ignoring that uptrend line at this point but is just chopping sideways/lower which leads me to believe we're still going to see a move back up before setting up the short play.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 1:23:12 PM

Consumer Disc SPDRs (XLY) $31.56 +0.54% Link ....

Black & Decker (BDK) $75.70 +0.53% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 1:20:07 PM

Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO) $21.77 -2.42% Link ... Continues to exhibit weakness. MACD and Signal threaten zero level.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 1:13:21 PM

SPX NH/NL 2:20

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 1:13:08 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 1:04:20 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 12:57:52 PM

iShare Japan (EWJ) $12.67 -1.40% ... suggests to me weakness in Tuesday's session for the $NIKK.

On 06/15/06 we sold bullish position at $12.85 from 06/13/06 entry of $12.37.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 12:52:54 PM

ishares Russell 2000 (IWM) $67.54 +0.01% ... WEEKLY Pivot $68.63.

July "Max Pain Theory" $70.00 ($1 increments)

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 12:46:52 PM

Israeli Ground Troops Quickly Out Of Southern Lebanon After Attacking Hesbollah Bases.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 12:42:50 PM

Top 33 S&P 100 Components found at this Link

Keene Little : 7/17/2006 12:26:02 PM

ES keeps dancing on its uptrend line, after breaking below it and rising back above it this morning. It's currently at 1242.50 and it got a bounce off it again.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 12:21:23 PM

Brazil's Central Bank Buys Dollar At BRL2.214

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 12:15:43 PM

KBW Bank Index (BKX.X) 105.81 -0.06% ... fractional loss considering C $46.50 -2.26%

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 12:14:35 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 370.80 +0.28% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 12:14:10 PM

SPY $123.50 -0.01% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 12:13:47 PM

Oil Service HOLDRs (OIH) $142.53 -2.90% ... edges under WEEKLY S1 ($142.67).

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 12:03:50 PM

Most Actives ... QQQQ $36.12 +0.50%, SPY $123.68 +0.12%, IWM $67.65 +0.17%, INTC $17.80 -0.44%, LU $2.04 -0.97%, CSCO $18.03 -0.50%, AAPL $52.77 +4.12%, C $46.55 -2.18%, MSFT $22.47 +0.80%, EMC $9.95 +1.22%

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 11:59:09 AM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $90.97 +3.72% ... WEEKLY Pivot $85.83, with WEEKLY R1 $90.64

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 11:57:51 AM

Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $30.12 -1.50% ... WEEKLY Pivot $31.69

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 11:56:45 AM

Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) $99.04 +1.81% ... WEEKLY Pivot $98.27

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 11:48:00 AM

Lam Research (LRCX) $42.62 -0.14% ... WEEKLY Pivot at $43.32.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 11:47:41 AM

Stepping away, let's hope 36 holds.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 11:47:15 AM

I will try to ride this trade up to QQQQ 38 this week.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 11:46:28 AM

Target is still 1492

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 11:42:37 AM

QM should find support at 75. It better.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 11:40:16 AM

Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) 14,845 Link ... was closed for holiday.

Keene Little : 7/17/2006 11:39:38 AM

We got a nice little 5-wave move off the last pullback so we should see this continue higher again even if we get more of a pullback here. The new high should be the one to short and if we only get two equal legs up off the low just past 10:30--ES 1241--that will take us to a test of this morning's high. The top of its flag pattern is close to 1250 and there's an internal Fib projection at 1252. That's a little wide but I'd look at the 1248-1252 as the resistance area to short. As this bounce progresses I'll try to nail the potential high a little closer.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 11:39:22 AM

Hang Seng ($HSI) Link ... shed 70 points, or -0.44% to 16,065.

Session low/high was 15,949/16,104

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 11:34:05 AM

+2 partial

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 11:33:58 AM


Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 11:33:16 AM

Update- Japan Defense Chief Seeks Permanent Deployment Law-Kyodo

DJ- Japan's defense chief on Monday called for a permanent law to allow overseas troop deployments, a news report said Monday.

Defense Agency director Fukushiro Nukaga, who was in Kuwait to greet soldiers withdrawing from southern Iraq, told reporters the country needed a new, permanent law to enable Japan to more promptly participate in peacekeeping activities, Kyodo News agency reported.

Tokyo's 600-strong contingent to the southern Iraqi city of Samawah - its largest and first to a combat zone since World War II - was dispatched under a special, temporary law.

The country's pacifist Constitution bans Japan from taking part in warfare.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 11:32:35 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert -
Long 1480, lower stop to 1475.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 11:32:17 AM

Stepping away with a slightly wider stop.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 11:32:03 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1480, stop 1476.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 11:31:48 AM

DJ- CNBC Survey: US June PPI Seen +0.3%; Core +0.2%

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 11:31:33 AM

This action wil just feed your broker, but we should hold Q 36 today.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 11:31:01 AM


Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 11:30:52 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 11:26:50 AM

let's get this pre-lunch bid now or I;m done.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 11:26:32 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1478.50, stop 1475.50.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 11:25:43 AM

Argh. Those NQ scalpers.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 11:25:22 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 11:23:36 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1478.50, stop 1475.50.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 11:21:25 AM

No juice yet.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 11:21:18 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 11:20:18 AM

Inverted H&S 5 mn. Traget could be 1492. If 1481.50 holds here.

Keene Little : 7/17/2006 11:17:01 AM

Nice save by the bulls after that head fake break of the uptrend line for ES. Back inside its bear flag now. If it can continue to hold we could see a choppy rally back up to the top of the flag today, currently up near 1250. YM looks to be forming more of an expanding triangle and could rally back up to the 10875 area. If so, those are the levels I'd be looking to short since that should be the last leg of the correction before we see it head for new lows.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 11:16:21 AM


DJ- North Korea staunchly rejects a U.N. Security Council resolution sanctioning the communist nation for recent missile tests and warns the measure is a prelude to a renewed Korean War.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 11:16:00 AM

We are now trading above 20 ema 30 mn, which is why I took that long.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 11:14:43 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Friday's Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 11:13:02 AM

pre-lucnh bid?

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 11:12:50 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1481.50, stop 1478.50.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 11:12:07 AM

internals say no way, but here we are.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 11:11:52 AM

This is classic opex.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 11:07:38 AM

50% is 1475.75 and must hold now

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 11:06:12 AM

NVDA found support at 20 month MA today, so a confirmation of important support there that must hold.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 11:03:16 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 11:02:42 AM

Getting a little tired.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 11:02:34 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 11:02:16 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1481.50, stop 1476.50.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 11:01:22 AM

SMH a better guide today than SOX

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 11:00:27 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 10:59:36 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1480.50, stop 1476.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 10:58:37 AM


DJ- McDonald's overall sales rise 6.9% in constant currencies in June and 6.6% for 2Q. Company expects 2Q EPS of 67c, including 10c gain from sale of Chipotle shares and 2c in losses. Analysts expected earnings of 56c.

MCD $34.27 +3.72% Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 10:58:14 AM

Did I leave this one too early?

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 10:56:41 AM


DJ- Novartis says 2Q net profit rises 4% to $1.71 billion, driven by its heart and cancer drugs. Figure is below the average $1.81 billion forecast called for by analysts, due to costs of integrating Chiron. Company warns price cuts will weigh on 2H profit.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 10:55:42 AM

Take some in.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 10:55:35 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 10:55:04 AM


DJ- Qatar Airlines is the firm Boeing previously said would take delivery of 20 model 777 jetliners. Customer hadn't been identified. Jakarta's Lion Air exercises rights to buy an additional 30 737-900s in a deal valued at more than $2.2 billion.

BA $78.17 +1.19% Link ...

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 10:54:24 AM

A few key stocks are helping NQ more than others (AAPL, QCOM, MSFT)

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 10:53:24 AM

If you think we wil test overnight, take +4 here. I will wait a little longer, to 1480 R.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 10:52:53 AM

I hope.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 10:52:38 AM

PIvot R which is also Q 36. Opex players are going to defend this one.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 10:52:12 AM

QM sept contract doble topped at 79.40. We are stll trading August, but September is telling us how much R we face at 80 in the future. EVeryone betting on 80+ oil makes me a skeptic, since I also see no reason for oil to be dirupted unless Iran cuts production. I don't think they will, because there are already signs Iraq can start picking up the slack. There will be no broad war because the Arab league is not into it. They have made that clear with a condemnation of Hezbollah, and that is a very rare event.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 10:51:55 AM


DJ- Electronics maker posts net profit of $381 million as one-time items boost year-earlier earnings. Operating profits improve and Philips says it's on track to meet full-year targets. Firm plans to buy back $1.9 billion in stock in 3Q.

PHG $28.66 +1.34% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 10:49:46 AM


DJ- New York Federal Reserve district's manufacturing-activity index drops to 15.64 from 29.01 in June. Economists expected a reading of 20. Optimism about next six months increases and price-paid index falls slightly.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 10:48:37 AM

(Before the bell)- June U.S. Industrial Capacity Utilization rose 0.6% to 82.4%

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 10:47:24 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert -
Long 1472.50, raise stop to even.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 10:46:43 AM

+3 partial now

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 10:46:40 AM

Japan Defense Chief Seeks Permanent Deployment Law-Kyodo

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 10:45:34 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert -
Long 1472.50, raise stop to 1472.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 10:40:14 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1472.50, stop 1470.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 10:39:51 AM

Since I don;t think oil wil be halted by one iota, we could have seen the top in oil already.

Keene Little : 7/17/2006 10:38:56 AM

The uptrend line for ES (the bottom of its bear flag) is at 1240.75 which is being tested now. A break below it will mean the bounce is probably finished and we'll head to new lows from here. If it can hold, we could still get another bounce back up to the top of the flag. Right now it looks like it's going to break down.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 10:37:50 AM

Not sure now we wil get there. Remember how much support Q 36 will be this week.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 10:37:12 AM

S&P Dep. Receipts (SPY) 60-minute interval chart with MONTHLY/WEEKLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 10:36:01 AM

I will wait now for a test of 1465

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 10:35:49 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 10:34:55 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1474, stop 1471.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 10:33:29 AM

SPY alert $123.24 -0.22% ... Testing Monthly S1 again.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 10:33:24 AM

We need to wait now and see what happens at 1473. Next entry could be a retest of overnight

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 10:32:59 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 10:32:19 AM

The eralier overnightlow was 1473, an should hold. I traded it before we got down to 1465, which is 50% June and at targe if 1473 does not hold.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 10:31:24 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1474.50, stop 1471.50.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 10:28:49 AM

Waiting for 1473 now or close

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 10:28:10 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 10:27:49 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1476.25, stop 1474.25.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 10:25:10 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 10:08:52 AM

Flattening of the curve has financial modestly weak.

C $46.75 -1.74% ... not helping things.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 10:07:59 AM

10:05 Market Watch at this Link

RUT.X now shows "small caps" relative weakness.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 10:03:56 AM

EU Industrial Production m/m was up 1.6 vs. +1.3% forecast and reversed -0.6% decline.

EU Consumer Price Index m/m up 0.1%, which was inline with forecast. +0.03% prior month.

Keene Little : 7/17/2006 10:01:56 AM

It's also possible that this morning's high is it for the bounce. Two equal legs up from Friday's low is at 1247.75 which was missed by a tick. Shorting it here against a new high could work but watch the uptrend line to see if it breaks.

Keene Little : 7/17/2006 10:00:05 AM

The June 28th low of ES 1246.50 is now acting as resistance. If it can rally back above that level and hold it, the bulls will have a fighting chance. Otherwise this pattern could still rule (more as a parallel up-channel for a bear flag rather than an ascending wedge which I showed last night). Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 9:59:54 AM

(Before the bell)- June Industrial Production up 0.8% In June vs. 0.1% in May

Up 4.5% over June 2005

Production of autos and auto parts rose a robust 3.3 percent in June, swinging from a 1.3 percent drop the month before as the industry struggled with soaring gasoline prices that sapped demand for sport utility vehicles.

Mining production rose 1.2% and manufacturing gained 0.7% from the previous month, the figures showed.

The strength in industrial production in June also included a 1.7% rise in output of oil and natural gas.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 9:52:30 AM

DJ- Phelps Dodge Convinced Holders Will Support Falconbridge Deal

Chinese Economy Remains Strong.

PD $77.85 -2.39% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 9:47:54 AM

S&P Dep Rec (SPY) $123.98 +0.35% ... "underperforming" to the upside vs. other major indices.

OIX -1.12%

OIH -1.90%

XNG -0.53% with energy providing a "drag."

More than likely, it has been the energy component keeping the SPY off its mid-June relative lows.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 9:41:25 AM

Swing trade sell put alert ... Let's try and sell the four (4) California Pizza Kitchen CPKI July $25 Puts (CUH-SE) for $0.15

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 9:36:52 AM

I'm going to pass on any NAKED PUT selling this morning.

May have an opportunity for a covered out the money put sell against the SPY Aug $126 Puts

Keene Little : 7/17/2006 9:35:40 AM

Watch this early rise off the open. It's often the head fake move.

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 9:32:40 AM

Cigigroup (C) $46.78 -1.68% Link ... gaps lower after announcing Q2 earnings.

AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/17/2006 9:25:45 AM

August Gold (gc06q) really getting hit lower this morning. Down $14.80, or -2.18% at $662.20.

Jane Fox : 7/17/2006 9:22:41 AM

I have caught a bug and will not be in the monitor this morning. I may be able to sign on later.

Tab Gilles : 7/17/2006 9:22:23 AM

On June 30 11:56 AM I'd posted that that a possible bottom had been made in the Nasdaq. However, I really wanted to see 250 level on the $NALOW Weekly chart reached to make a significant over sold condition.

$NASI/$NALOW On a weekly chart has yet to hit capitulation levels, although very close. Link

Different story on the $SPX. Link

The $NDX has broken below it's uptrend channel. Link

$NASI weekly chart Link $NAA charts... Link

Keene Little : 7/17/2006 8:10:05 AM

There was quite the dive in futures right after Europe opened for business. ES dropped nearly 10 points and from the early morning low has recovered 5 of those points. The rise up off the bottom is very choppy though and it looks like we'll continue to see choppy price action this morning.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 5:47:40 AM

The gap down open is set as everyone plays the bad news. The key will be for 1465 to hold, or else we will see 1450 and maybe 1443. But again, with all those puts at Q 36 and above, I really doubt we will let go of 1465, but one never knows.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 5:39:13 AM

I should have expected the s1 low at 4am, but the Phillips news kept me in the wrong place. In any case, no loss overall, but a failed opportunity.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 5:02:56 AM

That was a quick trip to s1 and 60% June projection. It should hold.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 5:02:17 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 3:20:09 AM

Stepping away. We are back in 1.5 lower, same stop.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 3:19:27 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1475.50, stop 1473

Marc Eckelberry : 7/17/2006 3:02:38 AM

here comes some volume and the flush

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