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Keene Little : 7/18/2006 11:37:25 PM

I was expecting a low to be made Tuesday which would set us up for a rally into the end of opex week. Tuesday afternoon's low could have been it. But from an EW perspective there's something about it that bothers me--the decline from Tuesday morning to the afternoon low looks too much like a 3-wave move. If Tuesday's decline was the 5th wave down in the decline from July 3rd it should have been a 5-wave move.

Sometimes, on the shorter time frames, the final 5th wave gets funky and misses a leg so I'm tempted to just call a bottom and not hold fast to the need for a cleaner 5-wave move down. But if we assume it was only a 3-wave move then the rally this afternoon will be the completion of the long consolidation since last Friday (as wave-C on the chart) and not the start of the bounce into the end of the week. It would like this: Link

The sloppy price action on Friday and Monday would be wave-A and then the 3-wave move down to Tuesday afternoon's low would be wave-B and now we're in wave-C up (and c-waves are 5-wave moves). The type of correction this would be is an expanded flat correction and that just means wave-C typically goes 162% of wave-A which is shown on the chart at 1250.

Looking at YM the same way we get a Fib projection at 10905: Link Assuming Tuesday afternoon's rally will continue into Wednesday morning (with possibly a small pullback first) keep an eye on ES 1250 and YM 10905 areas for a short play to set up. We should get at least a pullback from there to correct the leg up from Tuesday's low. More bearishly we'll get a bigger drop to finish the decline from July 3rd (with downside Fib projections of ES 1227.75 and YM 10670).

Keene Little : 7/18/2006 11:09:54 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 10:54:53 PM

YM 60-minute interval chart (same as below) so you can find your trends at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 10:49:00 PM

YM Pivot Matrix for Wednesday at this Link

YM 15-minute interval chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 10:16:57 PM

Index Pivot Matrix for Wednesday found at this Link

OEX came close to MONTHLY S1.

OI Technical Staff : 7/18/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 9:25:03 PM

Look at that volume in YHOO in the last 20-minutes of trade ... about 4.4 million shares from $31.73 up to $32.26. For every buyer there's a seller.

Not sure it will do the BIDU $75 puts any good with just 3-days left though.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 9:19:48 PM

Three days until July Expiration ....

CPKI $26.31 -1.82% .... WEEKLY S1 $25.43 and WEEKLY S2 $24.24

BIDU $90.39 in extended with WKLY Pivot $85.83, WKLY S1 $82.91 and WKLY S2 $78.10.

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made, as well as today's activity reviewed at 07:09:07 PM EDT and updated TARGETS/STOPS at 07:17:29 PM EDT.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 9:06:53 PM

Scott & Scott filing an improperly expensing of stock options case against Juniper (JNPR) Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 9:00:20 PM

Kind'a like this ... S&P 500 Bullish % Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 8:45:02 PM

What we want to be alert to Marc is for sentiment to "say" it is still weakening, but MARKET internals to be improving.

You know ... The fund manager/trader/investor that says he/she is worried about this, that and the other, meanwhile they're buying hand-over-fist.

Can't hide buying with the bullish %.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 8:40:16 PM

What about low sentiment reading for 2004? Say.... August (8)?

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 8:38:57 PM

NASDAQ sentiment index, actually lower than 2003: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 8:36:54 PM

Speaking of RISK ... NASDAQ Comp saw a net loss of about 22 stocks to reversing lower PnF sell signals today Link

One "General" left the field too Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 8:31:54 PM

No disagreement as to what is going on on a manipulative basis with index options (or futures for that matter) during option expiration week. No none should trade options unless they understand the risks. It is the world of hedging and leveraging, so it will always be rough.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 8:25:34 PM

QQQQ .... Jan07 Max Pain $39.00

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 8:24:26 PM

QQQQ .... December Max Pain $41.00

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 8:23:44 PM

QQQQ .... July Max Pain Theory at $38.00 ($1 increments)

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 8:23:26 PM

I think the option problem only relates to stock option grants and how they are/were written off.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 8:22:12 PM

Hmmm... but what if there are index option problems?

QQQQ $39, then $38, then $37, now $36?

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 8:21:28 PM

NASDAQ and the 20 month MA: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 8:15:02 PM

Meanwhile, NQ holding up above pivot so far, but folks, I think the market is less concerned about stock option problems for YHOO than it is about Bernanke tomorrow, so gains/losses will be limited until we find out more. We might even get a nasty opening flush, but my bet is we hold on.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 8:12:51 PM

Hmmm.... I was thinking everything would be "OK" if 1,750 held.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 8:11:53 PM

2151 and 1584.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 8:11:13 PM

We have 2 weeks to get NDX and COMP back above 20 month MA. That is the battle ahead.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 8:08:29 PM

Now that's the spirit! I agree 100% and in fact I think 2000 will hold and will be the springboard.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 8:06:38 PM

I'm not a believer in "the end of the U.S. stock market" either.

I still believe that the NASDAQ Comp will trade 5,000 again!

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 8:05:17 PM

Besides, my favorite contrarian indicator, Michael Ashbaugh, has just declared that we are going to fall apart even further. Since he is the chartist that told everyone to load up early August of 2005 and then to sell everything mid-October, I feel very good about the long side...

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 7:59:18 PM

Taking QQQQ down to 2003 levels is hogging it. If we do not rebound and stay down in here and lower for the next few months, I will buy that it is "adjustments". Right now, it's artificial and excessive. We will see the Investor Sentiment numbers tomorrow, but so far, bull/bear ratio down to 2003 levels, almost as if we were in a recession. We are not. Many great companies are selling at ridiculous multiples. Even GE. To compare this to 2000/2002 is tired. So yes, I say bears are hogs right now, but there is nothing wrong with chasing the last crumbs, I would just only daytrade it, not invest in it (as in loading up with puts). And by hogs I also mean the incessant doom and gloom and predictions of market crashes and wars and oil blockades and how much money we will make shorting from here, etc... Sorry, I'm not a believer in the end of the US stock market. For three days they have tried to get a lower low close and they are not getting it. Good.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 7:51:34 PM

IBM's July Max pain is $80.00 ($5 inc.) Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 7:49:06 PM

Yahoo's July Max Pain "was" $32.50. ($2.50) PnF chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 7:41:09 PM

I don't think bears have been real hogs lately Marc. Ferocious? Very disciplined at NQ 1,458 today, but not hogs!

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 7:17:29 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles Targets/Stops at this Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 7:09:07 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Today's Activity


Lowered bearish stops on NYT ($23.55) and BDK ($75.34).

Swing trade shorted 1/2 position in the StreetTracks Gold (GLD) at the bid of $64.10. Stop currently $65.25, targeting $60.00.

Based on intra-day technicals and past/present July "Max Pain Theory" observations decided to close out/sell remaining SPY Aug. $126 Puts (SPY-TV) at the bid of $3.20. ($+0.65, or +25.49%).

Swing traded long what would equate to just over 1/3 equivalent bullish position in Intel with two (2) of the INTC Jan07 $17.50 Calls (NQ-AW). No stop since we aren't over leveraging and targeting $22.70 in the underlying.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 6:38:08 PM

For those with less of a stomach for waiting, 1473.25 is the new 50% and close enough to QQQQ 36. I would put the stop at 1470 if you want to play it real safe and lock in +10.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 6:35:06 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1460, raise stop to 1464.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 6:34:33 PM

I am going to raise the stop to where I think bull need to hold the line tomorrow. Monthly S2 is 1465.75, daily S1 is 1466.50. The stop will be raised to 1464.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 6:30:15 PM

IBM could save the day. Business is good there. But IBM is not part of NDX. Bulls are hoping it will hold up equivalent sectors.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 5:51:34 PM

GOOG support is 50 dma at 393.94.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 5:46:16 PM

Forecast is 4.6 to 4.85 billion and analyts were looking at 4.78. Does that justify this reaction? I don't think so. It will be very interesting to see if the stock gets back above 30 tomorrow.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 6:29:20 PM

YHOO plummets and that one is a surprise with the amounts of puts and shorts out there at 30. Never know, the night is early, but it's quite a drop.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 5:42:43 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 4:46:22 PM

Google (GOOG) $403.00 -1.19% .... $390.50 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 4:44:59 PM

Never a dull moment is there?

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 4:43:34 PM

Yahoo! (YHOO) $32.24 +1.25% ... $29.92 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 4:43:04 PM

IBM $74.26 +0.75% ... $75.96 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 4:40:39 PM

IBM (IBM) AP Earnings Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 4:39:20 PM

Yahoo! (YHOO) Earnings Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 4:37:52 PM

Google (GOOG) $403.00 -1.19% ... $393.38 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 4:37:13 PM

Baidu.com (BIDU) alert $92.66 -0.40% ... $90.50 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 4:35:14 PM

Yahoo! (YHOO) alert $32.24 +1.25% ... plunges to $30.25 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 4:20:55 PM

DJ- President Bush: Suspects Syria Trying To Regain Influence In Lebanon

Root Cause Of Problem Is Hezbollah

Hezbollah Problem Must Be Addressed

Essential Lebanon Govt Survive Crisis

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 4:10:39 PM

YM ... 10,863 ... M S1 here.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 4:10:01 PM

IBM $74.26 +0.75% ... $76.00 extended

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 4:08:45 PM

IBM $74.26 +0.75% ... $75.53 extended

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 4:07:55 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPY $123.79

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 4:07:34 PM

DJ- IBM 2Q Earnings Alert: First Call $1.29

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 4:07:01 PM

Intl Business Machines 2Q Rev $21.89B Vs $22.27B, -1.7%

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 4:06:47 PM

Intl Business Machines 2Q Net $2.02B Vs $1.83B, +11%

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 4:06:36 PM

DJ Intl Business Machines 2Q EPS $1.30 Vs $1.12

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 4:06:06 PM

IBM alert $74.26 ... jumps to $75.00 ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 4:04:46 PM

Waiting on IBM

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 4:04:30 PM

Intel (INTC) $18.20 +2.01% ...

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 4:02:28 PM

Economic Reports tomorrow include

8:30a.m. June Consumer Price Index. Consensus: +0.2%. Previous: +0.4%.

8:30a.m. June Consumer Price Index, Ex-Food & Energy. Consensus: +0.2%. Previous: +0.3%.

8:30a.m. June Housing Starts. Previous: +5%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 4:02:04 PM

IBM earnings any minute $74.26 +0.75% Link ... after pegging its bearish vertical count today.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 3:48:13 PM

SPY $123.81

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 3:48:07 PM

AD volume and AD line both back above 0 now. What a day!!

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 3:48:00 PM

Swing trade close out puts alert ... on the SPY Aug $126 Puts (SPY-TV) at the bid of $3.20

Keene Little : 7/18/2006 3:47:27 PM

I would have expected to see a little more downside before getting the larger bounce that we're seeing into the close. It either means the low has been found for the week or it's going to take longer to chop its way lower. I hope for the sake of trading it's the former. This is laborious trading--all the 3-wave moves is not making it easy to figure out direction here.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 3:47:11 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPY 123.72

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 3:46:48 PM

Seeing action in the SPY option chain that suggest a possible bid into Friday's expiration.

VIX 18.12 -2.78% ... and

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 3:38:25 PM

Bush Administration: No Lebanon Truce If Terror Structure Intact

DJ- The Bush administration can't support any cease-fire proposals for Israel and Hezbollah that leaves a terrorist structure intact, White House spokesman Tony Snow said Tuesday.

Responding to reporters questions during a televised briefing, Snow said the Bush administration is "uncomfortable" with the situation involving attacks back and forth between Israel and Hezbollah forces in Lebanon.

"We are uncomfortable with the situation as it is," he said. "What we want is a cessation of violence in a manner that is consistent with peace and democracy.

"A cease-fire that that would leave a terrorist infrastructure intact is unacceptable, so we are trying to work toward a cease-fire to institute peace and democracy in the region," Snow said.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 3:34:33 PM

Argentina June Industrial Output +8.9% on Year, +0.9% on Month

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 3:16:17 PM

SPX NH/NL 3:42

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 3:16:04 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 3:12:02 PM

Here is an update of that same chart. Link

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 3:11:20 PM

Putting a fib retracement on the rally from daily lows I see YM has only retraced past the 38.20% so it remains "bullish." If YM breaks the 61.80% level at 10766 then the bears have the ball back. Link

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 3:04:07 PM



Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 3:04:02 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 2:59:16 PM

I have to go. Stop stays at 1455, I want to ride this out. If YHOO misses, use YM to cover if NQ is closed. I think YHOO will jump overnight, but I could be wrong.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 2:49:35 PM

I wanted to see if there were any buyers at my "bear fit 38.2%"

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 2:48:18 PM

The fact that QM has fallen should be of no surprise to anyone (including me and why I had my stop on my QM long real close) because of the MACD divergence. Now we are looking for a spot to get long again. This is always a hard game for me to play but necessary. The most obvious spot to go long this market is the 50% retracement at 73.20 Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 2:45:59 PM

INTC stuffed the channel from the looks of the sale DELL is putting on now. I bet they will show a nice liquidation of inventory which is what the street wants to see. DELL is going to get rewarded by INTC for playing the game. I hope.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 2:44:23 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $22.66 +0.80% ... benchmarking.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 2:42:54 PM

Target is 23.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 2:42:27 PM

Hey Jeff, join the club! I own 60 of them...

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 2:41:07 PM

Swing trade bullish call alert for two (2) of the Intel INTC Jan07 $17.50 Calls (NQ-AW) at the offer of $2.00

INTC $18.00 +0.89% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 2:41:09 PM

I am sooooo glad I decided to fight through it.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 2:40:18 PM

Pigs make money, hogs get slaughtered...the drop today was almost reluctant as if it was just a sucker's play. It was.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 2:38:03 PM

Some big money just put on the after-burners.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 2:37:40 PM

+1300 ticks are not the fade type.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 2:36:53 PM

The DOW does a key reversal above 10700, and I mean key. Right back above 10740, which is a very big number.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 2:35:50 PM

Bears have been real hogs lately, and we know what happens to hogs. Just pushing a little to far to the point where they could feel the pain soon.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 2:33:02 PM

INTC green

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 2:32:50 PM

bear lunch.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 2:32:33 PM

North American Palladium (PAL) alert $7.00 -5.27% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 2:30:56 PM

BIX.X 372.37 +0.03%

BKX.X 106.38 +0.02%

XBD.X 198.344 +0.37%

IUX.X 337.16 -0.33%

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 2:28:40 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPY $123.14

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 2:28:35 PM

The fact that the last TICK fade did not work is bullish.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 2:22:14 PM

Stepping away.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 2:21:52 PM

Looking for YM 10748.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 2:21:53 PM

At least for now. A cold winter will bring us back up here, but oil bulls need hurricanes and Iran to stop producing at this point. The premiums are outrageous especially in a slowing economy.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 2:20:24 PM

79.40 on the September contract was the kiss of death for oil.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 2:20:05 PM

TICKS +1000 benchmark YM at 10763.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 2:19:07 PM

And we hold. Good. This time , I put in a wider stop because I think COMP 2015 will hold and oil is in the toilet. It mmight hurt energy, but it will help the consumer and tech sector.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 2:19:32 PM

DJ- Oil Futures: Nymex Crude Drops Below $74 A Barrel

(see 12:08:54 MM Post)

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 2:15:52 PM

QM 73.85.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 2:15:42 PM


Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 2:15:30 PM

Energy stocks about to get clobbered.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 2:15:23 PM


Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 2:15:00 PM


Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 2:14:52 PM

NQ from 07/12/06 MM and "bear fit 38.2%" at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 2:14:18 PM



Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 2:14:09 PM

You never know what those computers have been looking at. 2003 highs for COMP? In any case, there was a bounce there, but it could be coincidental.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 2:12:16 PM

COMP 2015.25 is now key.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 2:10:49 PM

COMP found support at 2003 highs (2015).

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 2:09:28 PM

SPX 1225 was the breakout point off October lows.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 2:08:29 PM

NQ trades 50% of "bear fit 38.2%"

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 2:07:40 PM

Swing trade put lower stop alert on the SPY Aug $126 Puts (SPY-TV) to $124.50 in the underlying security.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 2:07:21 PM

Trade is +6, take some off if you have several.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 2:06:36 PM

Look at the drop in oil, at 74.55. This is good for the consumer, to hell with energy stocks. NDX/QQQQ will like it.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 2:06:08 PM

CLose enough to a 10% correction. Remember all the inside talk that they would give us a 10% correction this year? These little talks mean something. They are going to put money to work if 1225 holds. QQQQ corrected 18%.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 2:04:19 PM

I agree with Jeff. 1225 is a big deal.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 2:01:56 PM

This 1,225 levels was a "missed opportunity of a lifetime" on 06/23/06 for bulls. Want to be al_rt in here.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 2:01:30 PM

+2 partial.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 2:01:20 PM

ticks -850 right before the 2 pm turn was a set up, but don;t get greedy.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 1:59:15 PM

SPY alert 1,225.00 ...

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:58:14 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1460, stop 1455.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:57:51 PM

tcks -850

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:57:36 PM

NVDA still green. At least that one is alive

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:56:35 PM

2 pm turn.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:55:39 PM

Watch the COMP

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:54:55 PM

SPX at 23.6%

Keene Little : 7/18/2006 1:54:25 PM

We're getting the breakdown (I think) even though it's happening in slow motion. The downside Fib projection is ES 1224.50 which is where the 5th wave (the current move down) will equal the 1st wave down. I'd watch that level for the long play since I'm expecting a bounce into the end of the week once this leg down completes. We need a move down, a consolidation of the down leg and then another smaller move down so it could run into the end of the day before the long play sets up.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:53:24 PM

COMP 2005 is 50% June projection

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:49:58 PM

COMP 2000 is very near indeed.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:49:39 PM

Well lower oil is good for NDX.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:48:53 PM

Now they are worried energy will not give SPX the earnings growth that was predicted. You just can't win when it is a bear market, everything is taken in a negative light.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 1:48:43 PM

SPY 60-minute interval chart at this Link ... threatens to slip back below downward trend.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:46:28 PM

S2 is 1455, weekly s1 is 1445.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:45:51 PM

Ugly, ugly.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:44:06 PM

OIl below 75

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:43:48 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:43:41 PM

Not good

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:39:58 PM

Here it is. Let's see what it is made of.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:39:18 PM

Oil traders keep buying the dips, they can't believe it could go down with that business in the middle-east. Wake up, it can because it has no bearing on oil shipments. None.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:37:16 PM

Jim used to bring up that program window a lot and it is often vey indicative of the close. Here it is in 3 mns

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:36:25 PM

I hope that analyst who downgraded semis today gets egg on his face. What a late comer to the party.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:33:58 PM

program window in 7 mns

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:31:33 PM

This is a very nasty crowd. Guerilla warfare could learn from the sharks in the markets. They wear suits and ties, but slither like snakes around your stops.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:30:03 PM

bullish divergence on the 60 mn chart with that new low. but lately, that has been the running joke.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:28:40 PM

Scratch it.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:28:35 PM

+2 partial.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 1:28:26 PM

I have bot DIA Sept 112 puts. Jumping the gun because I said new yearly lows and YM has not yet made new yearly lows.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:28:04 PM

And it sets up the ground work for all those sellers to regret what they just did today.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:27:36 PM

If oil loses 75, that rally is over.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 1:26:22 PM

Nat Gas falling apart as well.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:25:56 PM

But oil is falling apart...come on boyz, let's do it.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:25:23 PM

too cute

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:25:16 PM

SMH 30 was the low.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 1:25:08 PM

* Home builders index down 31 points in past 12 months
* July NAHB index falls to 39 from 42 in june
* July home builders sentiment index falls to 15-year low
* Home builders index falls to 15-year low in July -

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:24:43 PM

Let's go ahead of the window

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:24:28 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1463, stop 1460.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:24:08 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:23:23 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1462.75, stop 1461.25.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:22:07 PM

Anything on the wires?

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:21:57 PM

SMH 30.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:20:54 PM

NDX 1450. Huge load of puts there.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:20:37 PM

We are not yet in the program window. in 30mns.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 1:20:13 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:20:08 PM

SMH 30.04.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 1:19:41 PM

TIKQ (NAZ's TICKS) hits a low of -1008

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:19:27 PM

It is just too much fear. There is Bernanke tomorrow, YHOO, INTC, MSFT etc... Maybe the markets want to send a message to the Feds.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 1:17:58 PM

NQ yearly lows at 1464.
ES yearly lows at 1229.
Ym yearly lows at 10722.
ER yearly lows at 673.40.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:16:59 PM

I would wait for a bounce back above 1466.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:15:47 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:13:25 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1466.75, stop 1465

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:13:14 PM

I am goingto scartch this. Fast traders only.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:12:56 PM

This is all before the program window.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:10:49 PM

I bet it holds.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:09:44 PM

Here it is. must hold at 35.74: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:07:44 PM

35.74 is for QQQ a duplication of 50% projection June H/L that NQ did last week. On the nose.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:06:24 PM

Wicked. Everyone wants out before the earnings. But remember that is the way funds react, they always sell at bottoms and buy at highs and are basically a very hsyterical bunch. I am more worried about hedge funds covering those puts they sold. Much more worried about that.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 1:05:11 PM

VIX alert 19.09

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 1:04:50 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 1:03:17 PM

QQQQ $35.76 -0.74% ... that's a new 52-weeker.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 1:02:55 PM

Bye Bye Birdie!

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 1:01:54 PM

Intel (INTC) $17.73 -0.61% ... "bad tick" to $7.95.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:01:53 PM

Either someone knows something or this is the biggest scam Wall street ever pulled.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:00:54 PM

Ok, I'm done.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:00:40 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 1:00:14 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1469.75, lower stop to 1467.75.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 12:58:39 PM

Marc I also lied about not shorting Natural Gas although I will keep a real close eye on the hurricanes.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 12:58:30 PM

Back in, tight stop.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 12:58:40 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1469.75, stop 1468.75.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 12:57:34 PM

I lied.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 12:57:38 PM

When the AD volume and AD line are below 0 the chances of a TICK +1000 fade working increase substantially.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 12:56:11 PM

NO mas, I am not even looking at this junk anymore.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 12:55:50 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 12:57:17 PM

All I can say is that shorts better pray YHOO really blows it and so does MSFT. It is more on them now, not on bulls, since everyone has pretty much left the house.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 12:54:57 PM

This is a nightmare.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 12:53:39 PM

iShares Silver (SLV) $106.98 -1.82% ...

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 12:53:01 PM

WE hit 10783 but I am just lowering my stop and hoping for more. I may get less but I am playing the probabilities.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 12:52:23 PM

Need to hold 1473 now to get the 5 mn chart in reversal mode.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 12:51:13 PM

We are looking for 15 YM points 10783 which equates to 15 * $5 = $75.00

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 12:51:09 PM

MERRILL 2Q UP ON PRIVATE EQUITY MOVESDJ- Big gains on private equity investments, including one made less than one year ago, are 'key driver' of Merrill Lynch's record revenue and strong earnings in 2Q, CFO says. Merrill's 2Q net rises 42% to $1.58 billion, or $1.63 a share.

MER $67.18 -1.59% Link

Keene Little : 7/18/2006 12:49:04 PM

This multi-day tight range is getting old. This morning's drop in ES looked like it might have been the start of the next leg down though. The current bounce off this morning's low has two equal legs up at 1242 so watch that level for a short play setup. If we've started down, the next leg down will be the strong one.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 12:48:57 PM

If the lows hold, we are building the head of an inverted H&S on NQ which could set up 1620 withing a couple of weeks.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 12:49:08 PM

Also I usually see prices fall almost immediately after a TICK high of +1000 and if it does not then that tells me the chances of the fade working are less, not zero but less.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 12:48:05 PM

QQQQ back above 36. Glad to see those indicators work again after the May fiasco.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 12:47:34 PM

Welcome to opex. Trade is almost +10.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 12:46:49 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1469.75, raise stop to even.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 12:46:06 PM

If a TICK fade does not work read that as bullish.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 12:46:04 PM


Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 12:43:25 PM

TICKS +1000 benchmark YM at 10798.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 12:37:51 PM


DJ- Bank posts net income of $2.09 billion, or $1.23 a share, as revenue rises 12% to $8.79 billion. Analysts expected EPS of $1.24 on revenue of $8.77 billion. Firm isn't seeing any deterioration in consumer or commercial credit quality.

WFC $68.46 -0.13% Link

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 12:37:07 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- China TechFaith Wireless Communication Technology Ltd. (CNTF)(9.85-2.77-21.95% ) shares fell 22% to $9.87 in mid-day trading Tuesday after the company cut its second-quarter outlook. The Beijing-based company now expects net income of $4 million on revenue of $22.5 million, down from its previous forecast for net income of $8.5 million on revenue of $24 million. "While we expected the transition period in our business would be confined to the first quarter, it extended into the second quarter," said Chairman and Chief Executive Defu Tong in a statement. "We are now adding three to four months onto our internal forecasts to reflect the lengthier approval and testing process required by the international carriers for Smartphone and the required quality testing process of the new international customers for the Handset Design projects. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 12:35:56 PM


DJ- New York City's LaGuardia Airport has been experiencing persisting power problems. A Con Edison feeder cable is being repaired, which is affecting terminal for American Airlines and the Delta Shuttle. Meanwhile, service is out on some subway lines in Manhattan.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 12:35:26 PM


DJ- Online brokers post big jump in 2Q earnings. Schwab reports net income of $251 million, or 19c a share, a penny shy of analysts' mean estimate. Ameritrade has net income of $139.8 million, or 23c a share, a penny above expectations.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 12:32:41 PM


DJ- Net foreign purchases of U.S. securities total $69.6 billion in May, above estimates of $45 billion-$60 billion and April's upwardly revised $51.1 billion. Increase led by strong net buying in Treasury notes and bonds.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 12:32:08 PM

* NYSE volume 682.6m
* NYSE has 1,382 advancers
* NYSE has 1,722 decliners
* NYSE has 162 issues unchanged
* NYSE has 17 issues setting 52-week highs
* NYSE has 80 issues setting 52-week lows
* NASDAQ volume 790.2m
* NASDAQ has 1,242 gainers
* NASDAQ has 1,553 losers
* NASDAQ has 160 issues unchanged
* NASDAQ has 10 issues setting 52-week highs
* NASDAQ has 111 issues setting 52-week lows

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 12:31:22 PM

India Police Arrest 5 For Questioning On Mumbai Blasts

DJ- Indian police on Tuesday arrested five men who will be questioned about possible links to the deadly Mumbai bomb attacks last week, an official said.

The men, all Muslims, were detained Monday in Gauhati, the capital of the northeastern state of Assam, and arrested Tuesday, said state police chief Deepak Dutt.

Dutt did not say if there was any evidence linking them to the Mumbai attacks, but said they were found with more than 200,000 rupees (US$4,300) in cash, and one had visited a well-known Hindu shrine under a fictitious Hindu name.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 12:29:41 PM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $63.03 -1.43% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 12:29:40 PM

Hey, we broke out above the trendline.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 12:28:59 PM

Brazil's Central Bank Buys Dollars at BRL2.1985

Tab Gilles : 7/18/2006 12:28:48 PM

CV Therapeutics (CVTX) a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of small molecule drugs for the treatment of cardiovascular diseases. It offers Ranexa, which would be used in combination with amlodipine, beta-blockers, or nitrates for the treatment of chronic angina in patients; ACEON, an angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor, for the treatment of patients with essential hypertension. The company is developing various products, including Regadenoson, a product under Phase 3 clinical trial, for myocardial perfusion imaging; Tecadenoson, a Phase 3 clinical trial product, for the reduction of rapid heart rate during acute atrial arrhythmias; Adentri, a Phase 2 clinical trial product; and CVT-6883, a product under Phase 1 clinical trial, for the treatment of asthma. CV Therapeutics is also developing various products, which are in preclinical development stage, comprising Adenosine receptors for atrial arrhythmias, lipid metabolism, diabetes, metabolic syndrome, dyslipidemia, and addiction; Late sodium current for ischemic conditions; reverse cholesterol transport for atherosclerosis; and other programs related to cardiovascular disease and associated risk factors, such as metabolic disorders, dyslipidemia, and obesity. In addition, the company is co-promoting ACEON tablets; an angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor, with its collaborative partner, Solvay Pharmaceuticals, Inc. CV Therapeutics has strategic collaborative agreements with Roche Palo Alto LLC, Biogen Idec, Inc., Astellas US LLC, and Solvay Pharmaceuticals, Inc. It also has a research collaboration and licensing arrangement with PTC Therapeutics, Inc. for the development of orally bioavailable small molecules. The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Palo Alto, California. Link Link

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 12:22:01 PM

THe $ breaks resistance as Gold plummets. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 12:17:55 PM

They are trying to hod the lower bband 30 mn together at 1470.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 12:14:44 PM

My goodness Gold has just lost its overnight and previous day lows. Now at 637

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 12:14:11 PM

That is my last trade today. Sick of it. 1469 doesn't hold, they will be fishing for new 2006 lows and I am not playing that either way.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 12:12:09 PM

This is way too much work, but here we arem back above 1470.50, as they wipe out about 500 contracts in stops.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 12:11:18 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -
Long 1469.75, raise top to 1469.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 12:10:17 PM

C'mon, this is just low volume lunch noise.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 12:09:59 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1469.75, stop 1467.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 12:09:21 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 12:08:54 PM

Oil Service HOLDRs (OIH) alert $138.54 -1.10% ... Testing WEEKLY S2 here.

Not being "pulled" lower, but leading the declines.

Be VERY CAREFUL if long oil commodity here.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 12:08:23 PM

-700 tick and lowrer pice. Divergence.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 12:08:08 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1470, stop 1467.,

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 12:07:39 PM

-900 tock. Getting back in.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 12:07:30 PM

I am going to puke if we rally here.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 12:07:07 PM

-800 tick.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 12:06:58 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 12:06:44 PM

Marc I agree with your bear flag theory but PDLs are too close to short it. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 12:06:38 PM

They are going to find my stop.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 12:06:25 PM

big drop for oil.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 12:04:48 PM

5 mn NQ with fibs. Pretty clear that 1470.50 has to hold up now. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 12:02:54 PM

Taking no chances.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 12:02:47 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -
Long 1470, raise stop to even.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 12:02:30 PM

76.4% at 1470.50 was the hit.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 12:01:56 PM

yes, no, yes?

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 12:01:21 PM

This is turning into a bear flag.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 11:59:01 AM

Howevr, I don't like MSFT here. I just hope YHOO trumps it, beacuse it sure doesn't look good on the softie side.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 11:58:32 AM

Bearish swing trade short lower stop alert ... on Black & Decker (BDK) $73.84 -2.06% .... to $75.34.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 11:54:51 AM

Nothing beats a massive sell-off with new lows, and continued fear with strong opex put support right ahead of key earnings. This could be the sweetest trade. I sure hope so, because it has been hell since Friday. But never, never underestimate the power of a bear market rally. I lost a fortune before on one of those.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 11:52:37 AM

Linda, (I know you're watching) check out the option activity for YHOO. We could get a nice short squeeze if they just hint at a smile. Link

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 11:48:42 AM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- More home builders could lower their earnings forecasts this week after D.R. Horton Inc. cut its 2006 profit outlook by nearly a third late last week on a slumping real-estate market.

Quarterly results are expected from Ryland Group Inc. (RYL ), M.D.C. Holdings Inc. (MDC) NVR Inc. (NVR) and others after D.R. Horton (DHI) the nation's largest builder, lowered its forecast on difficult selling conditions in the housing market. The company cited rising inventories of homes for sale, higher cancellations and the increased use of incentives to attract buyers.

Home-building stocks are off more than 30% for the year to date, as the pullback in the housing market has been more dramatic than the "soft landing" expected by many investors and analysts. The companies say that sales are falling as potential buyers wait on the sidelines for the market to stabilize and with mortgage rates inching steadily higher.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 11:46:59 AM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $64.08 +0.20% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 11:46:27 AM

DJ- CNBC Survey: U.S. June CPI Seen Up 0.2%; Core Up 0.2%

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 11:44:46 AM

NVDA catching quite a bid.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 11:44:08 AM

They are going to get back to QQQQ 36.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 11:42:00 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Foreign central banks were net sellers of U.S. long-term financial assets in May for the first time in more than a year, the Treasury Department reported Tuesday.

Despite the $1.4 billion in net sales by official foreign buyers, net capital flows into the United States rose to $69.6 billion in May from $51.1 billion in April, as private investors scooped up large amounts of Treasury bonds and government agency bonds.

The United States requires large capital inflows each month to help fund its current account deficit. Net purchases of long-term securities totaled a record $1.05 trillion in 2005. In the first three months of the 2006, flows reached $271.6 billion.

In May, private investors bought $27.5 billion in Treasury bonds and notes, and $34.1 billion in corporate bonds. They also purchased $27.1 billion in government agency bonds, the Treasury data show. They bought $1.5 billion in corporate equities.

The big purchases of Treasurys and agency bonds were a switch from April, when private investors sold $7.9 billion in Treasurys and bought $9.6 billion in agency bonds.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 11:41:22 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert -
Long 1470, raise stop to 1469 on remaining.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 11:39:57 AM

+3 partial now

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 11:39:32 AM

I would NOT be short YHOO ahead of earnings. Lots of pessimism in the July options, 1.46 pc ratio at 30 strike and 1 at 32.50 strike. In fact, it is a good lottery play for the wild ones.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 11:35:53 AM

Network Appliances reaffirms outlook, but some analyst downgrades TXN and NEM. It just always amazes me how these guys always show up now, not when the stocks were overpriced and overhyped. These are the same guys athat had buy ratings on TXN at 34. What baloney.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 11:33:31 AM

NVDA back at 18 and one of the rare tech big guns that is green.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 11:32:46 AM

SOX 400

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 11:32:13 AM

Bulish divergence ES 30 and 60 mn chart. But we have been fooled before.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 11:30:08 AM

OIl back above 76. No help today.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 11:29:30 AM

SMH 61.8% projection June is 30.27 and it needs to get back up there quickly, or we can see 28.34 in the coming days.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 11:27:26 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert -
Long 1470, raise stop to 1468.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 11:26:33 AM

SOX is below 400, and that better not last.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 11:25:44 AM

That was fun. Scalp zone pre-luch noise and stop runs.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 11:24:25 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert -
Raise stop to 1467.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 11:23:43 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert -
Lower stop to 1466

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 11:23:12 AM

OIl drops belwo 76

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 11:22:59 AM

Target really hit RLX, no dount. This is purely an opex play at this point, because we could see new lows any day.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 11:21:17 AM

We are oversold 30,60 and at S1, which is also close to yearly lows. Shold hodl, especially since we are waiting for some big guns.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 11:19:39 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1470, stop 1467.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 11:19:16 AM

Back. I guess we did test S1...

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 11:19:04 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 11:16:34 AM

SPX NH/NL 3:28

Yesterday's finishing NH/NL 3:25

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 11:15:28 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Monday's Internals at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 11:10:24 AM


Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 11:06:09 AM

Ditto for ES.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 11:05:52 AM

NQ breaks its intraday previous day lows but not yet the lows it made over the weekend.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 11:04:28 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 11:04:26 AM

Did anyone get short when YM hit 10840 to 10845? That was the 19.1% retracement of the decline we saw from June 7th. I missed it and will now wait for YM to make new yearly lows to ride it down to 10560, 127.20% retracement.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 11:01:48 AM

... and wait for a higher spot to short again.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 11:01:13 AM

TICKS -1000 so I would bail on shorts here.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 10:58:18 AM

AD volume drops below 0 AD line is +43. The bulls have lost the reins and the bears are in control - again.

Keene Little : 7/18/2006 10:56:34 AM

ES just can't seem to lift itself off the shallow uptrend line form Friday's low. It keeps pushing slightly below, threatening to fall, and then holds on. The uptrend line is currently at 1241.75 so is close to breaking down here.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:49:48 AM

Now QQV is green. This is all opex nad it is maddeing because we have very little clue as to what will happen next. Normally, we should hold here. But normal is not the word these days.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:48:34 AM

Back at Q 36. Wow, what a surprise.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:48:15 AM

Let's see how far we get. 1477 is R.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:48:04 AM

QQV is turning out to be much more important to watch than the others these days.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:47:02 AM

We ht 30 mn and 60 mn bbands. Good enough for me with QQV red.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:46:35 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert -
Long 1475, raise stop to 1473.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:46:05 AM

This cancels the older signal for now.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:45:43 AM

I'm not surwe will get s1, there is lots of noise around Q 36.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:45:10 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1475, stop 1470.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:44:45 AM

QQV is red. Supportive.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 10:41:35 AM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $30.29 -0.91% ... new 52-weeker here.

July "Max Pain" $30.00 ($2.50 increments)

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:40:01 AM

Just in case we do get that flush.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 10:39:58 AM

Lam Research (LRCX) alert $41.36 -2.10% Link ...

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:39:42 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long at 1471, stop 1466.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:38:21 AM

They should front run it at 1469/1470

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:37:42 AM

QQQQ 36 again.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:36:57 AM

We should not completely fall apart ahead of some pretty major tech earnings, so whatever flush we get, it "should" find support

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 10:36:17 AM


DJ- Industrial company posts net income of $1.1 billion, or $1.09 a share, which includes 7c in gains. Revenue rises 10% to $12.26 billion. Analysts projected EPS of $1.01 on revenue of $11.8 billion. Firm boosts outlook.

UTX $59.40 +2.48% Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:36:03 AM

I'm only going to take S1 at this point.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:35:42 AM

And QQV green. This is maddening.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:35:28 AM

Tick divergence again.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:34:53 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 10:34:50 AM


DJ- J&J's 2Q net climbs 9% to $2.82 billion, or 95c a share, as sales rise 4.7% to $13.36 billion. On an adjusted basis, J&J earns 98c a share, a penny better than expected.

JNJ $60.25 -1.08% Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:34:42 AM

I'm afraid they want S1.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:33:52 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert -
Long 1478.50, raise stop to 1476.50.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 10:33:35 AM


DJ- Coca-Cola earns $1.84 billion, or 78c a share, as revenue rises 2.6% to $6.48 billion. Results include net benefit of 4c from sale of shares in initial public offering of firm's Turkish bottler. Analysts expected Coke to earn 72c a share on revenue of $6.46 billion.

KO $43.55 +1.99% Link ...

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:32:12 AM


Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:32:05 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1478.50, stop 1475.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:31:43 AM

Let the ticks settle a bit.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:31:19 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:31:05 AM

That would not be welcome for bulls.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:30:54 AM

S1 is 1468..?

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:30:44 AM

Can't even leave.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 10:30:38 AM

Musharraf Warns Against India-Pakistan Peace Talks Delay

DJ- Pakistan's president on Tuesday said any delay in the peace talks between this Islamic nation and archrival India because of the Mumbai train bombings that killed more than 200 people would amount to "playing into the hands of the terrorists."

"Any stalling of the ongoing peace process would be unfortunate and doing so because of terrorist attacks would be tantamount to playing into the hands of the terrorists," President Gen. Pervez Musharraf told a meeting of Pakistan's National Security Council, according to a government statement.

Musharraf's comments came a day after India - which has blamed Pakistan-based militants for last week's bombings - formally notified Pakistan about the postponement of foreign secretary level talks which were scheduled to be held in New Delhi on July 20-22.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:29:45 AM

Stepping away for a sec. 1477 is 50% and QQV is red. Should all add up.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:28:49 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert -
Long 1476, raise stop to 1475.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:28:11 AM

I still expect 36 to hold.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:27:32 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1476, stop 1474.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:27:11 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:26:02 AM

QQV is green again. C'mon opex.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:25:51 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1476.50, stop 1473

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:24:50 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 10:24:31 AM

Gold is testing overnight lows and Oil overnight highs. I was seriously thinking of a Gold long last night but then once I looked at the chart of the $ I decided to wait. Glad I decided on the Oil long instead.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:23:57 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert -
Long 1477, raise stop to 1476

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 10:23:52 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 10:22:55 AM

If you trade ES you really need to keep your eye on the VIX. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:22:52 AM

This is really upsetting. The little games around 36 has been going on for too long.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:22:14 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1477, stop 1474.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:22:05 AM

They sure know how to find my stops.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 10:21:42 AM

VIX to new daily highs.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:21:01 AM

QQV is green, I am going to wait a second here.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 10:20:35 AM

AD volume falling and AD line making new daily lows. The bulls once again disappoint us.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:20:08 AM

QQQQ 36.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:19:55 AM

Quick and brutal.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:19:41 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:18:11 AM

Will put sellers prevail, or get whacked like in May? Big question.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 10:17:38 AM

VIX to new daily highs and all markets to new daily lows. Oh the poor bulls.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:16:54 AM

1477 is must hold.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:15:58 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1479, stop 1475.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 10:12:07 AM

Swing trade short alert for 1/2 position in the StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $64.10 +0.23% here, stop $65.25, target $60.00.

Please consult your tax advisor as to the treatment of capital gains/losses.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 10:06:42 AM

Bearish swing trade short lower stop alert ... on The New York Times (NYT) $22.39 -3.40% ... to $23.55.

Keene Little : 7/18/2006 10:05:04 AM

When I look at the consolidation pattern for YM it appears it does not have the same upside potential as ES before setting up a short play. Its bear flag pattern (if that's what's playing out) and Fib projection continue to show the 10875 area as the place to look for a short. So keep an eye on that level as well as ES 1252 if it presses higher. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 10:03:32 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:03:24 AM

OIl is up for no oter reason than 75 support held, but I think we saw the highs.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 10:02:45 AM

Gold has key support around 642 and should it lose that, it will return into a corrective mode. The dollar strenght and rate rise is the cause. Howvere, if Bernanke indictaes he is done tomorrow, gold will rally as the market perceives there is a real inflation risk at this point.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 10:02:00 AM

Nyse advancers outnumber decliners 19 to 7

NASDAQ advancers outnumber decliners 18 to 5

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 9:59:32 AM

The bulls sort of lost it there for awhile but seem to be regaining their footing.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 9:59:23 AM

NQ 5 dma is R at 1489.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/18/2006 9:58:35 AM

There is absolutely no doubt opex wants to hold up QQQQ 36 now. I could not trade overnight, but the set up was just that.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 9:58:08 AM

AD volume continues to climb and I will not short as long as it does.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 9:56:10 AM

The bulls continue to show their weakness. The ADs strong and the markets weak equals chop and and not a good environment for trading.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 9:51:01 AM

Fed's Warsh: U.S. Debt Markets 'Rather Accommodative'

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 9:48:17 AM

I will not be a short seller as long as these two are this bullish. The probabilities are just not with you. Link

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 9:46:25 AM

Now the tRIN is falling but the VIX is rising. ARGH!!!!

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 9:45:36 AM

Oh my goodness gracious the bulls are losing it here. NQ to new daily lows.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 9:40:26 AM

All markets except ES (S&P futures) have now broken their PDHs.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 9:39:32 AM

AD line is now above +1000 at +1319

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 9:38:43 AM

New York Times (NYT) released for trade ... $22.79 -1.68% ...

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 9:38:36 AM

TRIN retreats and VIX makes a new daily low so the bulls can go back in the water now.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 9:37:37 AM

Dateline WSJ MORE ON THE NUMBERS Read the complete text of Tuesday's economic reports, and analysis from Briefing.com: . Producer Price Index -- Labor Department; Briefing.com advertisement TODAY'S MOST POPULAR . Mideast Fighting Continues . Move to Nevada Proves Very Taxing . Upgrading Airline Seats . Middle East News Tracker . Syria Has Key Role in Mideast Crisis E-MAIL SIGN-UP Find out the latest market movements and trends in our e-mail alerts. Check the boxes below to subscribe. Newshound Quiz The Morning Brief The Afternoon Report The Evening Wrap To view all or change any of your e-mail settings, click to the E-Mail Setup Center Personalized Home Page Setup Put headlines on your homepage about the companies, industries and topics that interest you most. Producer Prices Jump on Energy; Core Number Meets Expectations By JEFF BATER July 18, 2006 9:09 a.m. WASHINGTON -- Wholesale prices in June climbed more than projected as costs at the gasoline pump resurged, but core inflation didn't stray above expectations.

Producer prices for finished goods rose by 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis last month, after increasing 0.2% in May, the Labor Department said Tuesday. Producer prices for goods excluding food and energy costs increased 0.2% in June. This "core" rate climbed 0.3% in May.

In the 12 months ending in June, overall wholesale prices climbed 4.9% on an unadjusted basis. The core rate was up 1.9%. Wall Street economists had expected the overall producer prices to rise 0.3% in June and that the core prices would go up 0.2%.

The core rate's mild reading within expectations was welcome for inflation watchers. The Federal Reserve meets again in three weeks on interest rates. Its last policy meeting saw the 17th consecutive increase in the federal funds rate target, a lift to 5.25% along with a statement suggesting bankers might pause in their tightening if the economy weakens enough and inflation pressures aren't too stiff.

Tuesday's report showed producer prices for finished goods in the energy sector increased 0.7% last month, after rising 0.4% in May. Gasoline was up 6.3% after rising 2.2% in May and 12.3% in April. Natural gas fell 3.7% and electricity dropped by a record 2.8%.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 9:36:15 AM

Careful bulls TRIN just broke its PDH.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 9:35:11 AM

Both the VIX And TRIN open within their respective previous day ranges and are neutral.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 9:33:45 AM

AD line is a bullish +938 and AD volume above the 0 line. The bulls have the reins.

Jeff Bailey : 7/18/2006 9:30:20 AM

New York Times (NYT) $23.18 ... Reported Q2 earnings that were flat with year-ago.

Company said it earned $61.3 million, or $0.42 (includes $5.3 million, or $0.04/share charge related to staff reductions). Concensus was for $0.44 excluding charges.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 9:29:06 AM

I expect today to be bullish and where the bulls are able to close today will tell a lot. If we see a sideways move close today, and for the rest of the week as well, new yearly lows are almost baked in the cake. IF we get YM back to at least the 19.1% level I talked about in my 8:57 post the bulls may live for a few more days or weeks, however, that will only give us a better spot to short. We have entered a bearish market now and I will not be looking to swing trade long but only for a better spot to short.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 9:22:54 AM

Here is a chart of the US $. Notice the bullish bar from yesterday? Wonder why Gold retraced yesterday? Now notice how the $ has reached a resistance. Wonder what Gold is doing today?

This is a bullish chart and I may not go long Gold until I see this chart turn around. Link

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 9:18:15 AM

... all equity market overnight highs, not the commodities I watch.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 9:17:44 AM

Just took at look at the overnight charts and I see all overnight highs have now been broken.

Keene Little : 7/18/2006 9:17:06 AM

We've had a nice recovery off the post-European open low of ES 1236 and futures are now just off their best levels as we approach the open. I'm hoping to see a push higher today to finish the consolidation pattern I showed earlier (11:52 PM below). I think that would be a better setup for a short play. If we get that leg up to ES 1252 it will be hard to short because it will look like a strong rally (as it should since it'll be a c-wave) but that's where you'll want to try it.

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 9:16:58 AM

Now on to NQ, poor NQ has been taken to the shed for a bad bad beating. When I was talking about YM I stated that a YM short could bring it down to the 127.20% fib level well as you can see NQ has already made that distinction and then some because yesterday it broke the 161.80% level. I think NQ could retrace back to the June 14th lows at 1548 and I know of some trading services that are calling for a QQQQ long now. I always wonder why go against the flow, which is now down. Link

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 9:10:48 AM

ER also has not yet made new yearly lows and has now traded above the June 28th lows at 684.30 and is now the strongest of the 4 we watch here in the monitor. Could ER make it back to the 38.20% retracement at 696.70? Possibly but not probably because of the weakness in NQ and YM. If you short YM make sure you know where these other markets are trading because they are all interconnected (DUH!) Link

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 9:02:58 AM

ES has not yet made a new yearly low, YM has taken on the distinction of leading the pack of ES, YM and ER (NQ is in a league of its own). ES could very well make it back to the June 28th lows at 1246.50 or even the 38.20% retracement at 1252 and if you like trading ES as opposed to YM then that may be your spot to short but remember YM is the weaker market now. Link

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 8:57:04 AM

This chart is starting to get cluttered and I don't like clutter on my charts. Anyway look at the fib retracements I have on the chart and particularly the lower ones. Here is how I would like to play this market. I would love YM to retrace to the 38.2 (61.80 on this chart) at ~10960 to get short but with the weakness in the markets I don't think that will happen. Ok so then how do I get short? You could use the 19.1% retracement at 10842 but what if YM can't even make it back to there? Then I will short the DOW futures when it breaks its PDL at 10722 and ride it down to the 127.20% at 10561. Link

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 8:49:08 AM

Yesterday was also interesting in that Oil, Gold and Natural Gas all took a beating. Funny that when Oil goes down the equity markets were not able to even break their previous day highs and make much of a gain.

From these charts you can see that Tbonds broke their previous day lows on the 8:30 PPI data putting upward pressure on interest rates.

Oil is regaining some of what it lost yesterday - I am long Oil again.

Gold is also gaining some of what it lost yesterday. Later I will show you a chart of the $ and why Gold took a beating.

Natural gas has broken support again and is now testing it as resistance on the daily chart (another chart I will show later). I would like to short Natural Gas but with the US entering the Hurricane season I don't think shorting NG is a good idea. Link

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 8:40:56 AM

Good Morning all. Sure glad to be back. I had a bad case of food poisoning yesterday, the second one in a year and it was not nice!!

Anyway on to the markets. Interesting day yesterday because the equity markets didn't gain anything back that they lost and YM even made a new low. I sort of figured we had entered a bear market but I didn't expect it to be this bearish.

Overnight the large cap markets didn't react to the 8:30 PPI data although the small cap Russell 2000 did but as you can see it has lost all those gains. All in all a very neutral overnight session. Link

Jane Fox : 7/18/2006 8:32:47 AM

* Core intermediate PPI up 7.3% y-o-y, 15-month high
* PPI up 4.9% in past year
* core PPI up 1.9% in past year, most since sept.
* June crude PPI down 1.7%
* June intermediate PPI up 0.7%
* June core PPI up 0.2% as expected
* June PPI up 0.5% vs. 0.2% expected
* June PPI up 0.5%, core PPI up 0.2% -

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