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Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 1:04:35 AM

In defense of market technicians around the world ... American Intl. Group (AIG) (Dow component) and recent fulfillment of head/shoulder top pattern objective Link

PnF still bearish with BVC to $54.00. Current risk/reward for a BEAR is ... RISKING $8 to a "buy signal" and POTENTIAL REWARD $5 to Bearish Vertical Count. Not all that compelling for a new entry, then consider h/s top pattern objective.

This is one of those "don't be a hog" trades.

Soapbox: There are several things that drive me crazy at times. I can't stand it when a technical trader tells me, you, us to buy/sell a pattern, then say ... "ah, this stuff is garbage," or begin making excuses for why the pattern didn't unfold as envisioned. Even worse is not saying anything and hoping nobody remembers the bad call.

I didn't abandon fundamental analysis, but when I first entered the industry, all I was told/guided to do was to "sell my client fundamentally sound stocks." After 5 losers in a row, one went down 25% just after a very bullish earnings report and a BULLISH MARKET for telecom equipment stocks (Cisco, Stratacom, Bay Networks, Cascade Communications) and I crunched and crunched the numbers, so did the firms analyst and so did the company's CEO and nobody could figure out why the stock was falling. "Ah, just wait until next quarter, those earnings are going to be so strong!" They were, but the guidance forward was that of a niche telecom equipment that was going to see a major slowdown due to newer technologies!

Then a fellow broker pulled me aside as I had about 30 "new clients" in the stock at a 25% loss, and I was as mad as they were at my fundamental analyst. I was also mad at myself for trusting anyone else in the firm.

But an elderly broker at the firm took me aside, and closed the door to his office. "Get out of that garbage and you should have never gotten in it to begin with" he said as he started drawing lines on a bar chart. "This stock most likely goes down another 30% from here!"

My branch manager was furious when I dumped 4,000 shares from my clients accounts at a 25% loss.

I think it was because I was "new" and wasn't showing faith in the firm's analyst.

That was the beginning of the end for me being a "pure fundamentalist." Oh gosh. There were some VERY grumpy fellow brokers, and some clients of brokers, the next couple of quarters in that stock.

Symmetricom (SYMM) ... from $16 to $8 in just about 6 months. Will never forget it.

More often than not, the MARKET figures things out WAY BEFORE the fundamental reasons (bullish, or bearish) are revealed.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 11:31:23 PM

NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) from StockCharts.com Link saw 3 "Generals" coming back onto the field (maybe I should say 3 of their starters for a football analogy). (Dorsey/Wright has +2%) but we get the observation.

Much broader NASDAQ Comp Bullish % ($BPCOMPQ) Link saw a net gain of about 2 stocks to reversing higher PnF buy signals. (Dorsey/Wright was down 0.01%, or net loss of 1) Nothing meaningful here.

NYSE Link up 0.17% to 49.55.

SPX Link rose 0.80%, so net gain of 4 stocks to 49.60%

OEX Link and your "starters/Generals" unchanged at 53%.

Not going to post these each and every night, but I look at them to see what, if anything meaningful took place.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 11:14:52 PM

Hang Seng ($HSI.X) up 343 points, or +2.14% at 16,441 Link

Session High/Low has been 16,446/16,419.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 11:14:43 PM

Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) up 386 points, or +2.67% at 14,886 Link ...

Session High/Low has been 14,906/14,706.

Comments: OK ... so the NIKK claws back above 14,800 at this point (07/10/06 Market Wrap), and that can't hurt the NASDAQ's chances of trying to firm, based on past couple of month's trade.

Two "main reasons" cited for the Nikkie's declines from April/May was LIQUIDITY problems via Bank of Japan and of course, slowing global economy.

Dr. Bernanke addressed "liquidity" today via GSE. I made special note of that (07/19/06 12:35:24) and I would think traders are going to keep an eye on how/what if anything Congress does.

Aha! Has Dr. Bernanke taken some notes, perhaps reviewed Fed action and reasons why Fed may have been partially responsible for choking off the last expansion? Looking back (so easy to do after the fact) is that the Fed was too focused on wages, kept tightening because that was the "sign of inflation."

This guy is sharp, he might be getting his footing in the new job, and while Big Blue's earnings seemed to calm some fears for tech, Dr. Bernanke's comments sure seemed to give market participants some bullish assurance.

Did you fall out of your chair when I posted the Dow Jones headline ... "Brazil Stocks Soar More Than 4% on Fed, Expected Rate Cut"

I had to read it six times to make sure Dow Jones was talking about Brazil specifically.

And it will be that type of "headline" that will probably drive Dr. Bernanke to lose more hair!

Yes... I see how his comments today may have been seen as "dovish," but I sure didn't interpret anything he said as saying "rate cut" anytime soon.

Keene Little : 7/19/2006 10:59:35 PM

I can count a clean 5-wave move up from Tuesday's low to Wednesday's high, and the 5th wave shows lots of negative divergence against the 3rd wave (which was the early morning high) as it should. That means we're due a pullback now and depending on how aggressive the bears get or defensive the bulls get, we can expect to see a retracement into the 38-62% zone. That gives us ES 1245.50-1254.50.

A shallow correction will mean only to about 1260 so I'll be watching to see what pattern develops on Thursday to help identify where the end of the pullback might be since it should set up a good long play for the next leg up. Perhaps after the FOMC minutes come out at 2:00 we'll see the rally continue.

YM's 38-6% retracement zone is 10866-10951 and if it too does just a shallow correction then we could see it hold above 10985. If the Fed was injecting money into the market on Wednesday to improve their man's image then some of it will depend on whether or not the money keeps getting injected. Without M-3 money supply being reported anymore it's nearly impossible to know. Just seems a little suspicious to me that the last two times Bernanke talked before Congress we've seen very strong rallies, started even before he began talking.

Keene Little : 7/19/2006 10:33:42 PM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 7/19/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2006 8:38:22 PM

Link Paul Otellini said Intel made progress on a number of fronts during the second quarter. "In April, I said the second quarter would be a time to work with our customers on inventory levels and prepare to launch a next generation of microprocessors," Otellini told analysts in a conference call following the earnings release. "We achieved those objectives during Q2 and are well positioned for the second half."
Otellini said he believed Intel may have lost a bit of market share on a "billings" basis during the quarter, but gained share on a "consumption" basis.
The $1.1 billion in operating income was 60% below last year's level. Still, the profit shortfall could have been even worse. Gross margin in the second quarter was 52.1%, compared with the 49% level the company had initially forecast. According to Intel, the profit upside was due to better-than-expected microprocessor and chipset unit costs and inventory valuation, despite lower-than-expected average selling prices for microprocessors.
Executives said the company was about halfway though the internal reorganization process announced in April. Thus far, the company has sold off its struggling handheld application processor business and announced the layoffs of 1,000 managers. These moves will bring the company's headcount to less than 100,000 employees by the end of the year, according to CFO Bryant. He hinted that further layoffs could be in the offing, saying that the company was considering "a variety of decisions" over the next few months "which would take the headcount down even lower."

That last bit is probably where we saw a bounce off lows.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2006 8:29:16 PM

Intel said average selling prices for its chips fell as the company has been trying to move a surplus of low-priced desktop PC processors ahead of new desktop and laptop chips, some of which will began shipping this month.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2006 8:25:22 PM

About the only thing holding up ITC now is the fact that AMD gave an even weaker foecast. These are all Q4 stocks now and should be in a trading range until then.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2006 8:22:27 PM

The INTC guidance is lame. About the only thing that would jump start this stock ahead of Q4 would be to announce drastic cuts and to fire Otellini. That guy is a disaster.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2006 7:19:59 PM

Jobs: "We're thrilled with the growth of our Mac business and especially that over 75 percent of the Macs sold during the quarter used Intel processors," Jobs said. Link

Tab Gilles : 7/19/2006 7:12:57 PM

Profunds UAPIX & UOPIX Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 7:12:16 PM

Grinning ... Wonder what Mr. Cramer's wife was/is saying? She's a technician. He usually very fond of her picks.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2006 7:06:16 PM

But he is a great promoter of the stock market, and that never hurts the Street. At least he makes people think about their investements.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2006 7:03:00 PM

I like Cramer, he's a great guy, but he now has so much influence, he has become a detriment to his own picks. I read that even Senators use his mad money tips. Reminds me of earlier gurus, like Gibbon, or whatever his name was in the 90's.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 7:01:35 PM

Echo Marc's 06:54:24, but stock probably "dead money" for at least a month and may be a follower, not the leader I had been looking for.

Noted SMH $32.51 and since I tend to trade like I think a computer trades, today's high, right at my 07/13/06 bullish entry point of $31.51 becomes a lingering level of resistance.

Blame it on OPEX for now (OPEX may have helped support $30.00 yesterday), but still cautious this group.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 6:56:36 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Today's Activity


We were swing trade stopped out of the remaining short in shares of Black & Decker (BDK) at $75.34 ($+3.40/share, or +4.32%)

Into the close decided to close out a portion of The New York Times (NYT) short at $22.35, now holding 1/4 position short. ($+1.59/share, or +6.64%)

Swing traded long one (1) of the Goldman Sachs' GS Oct $140 Calls (GS-JH) at $13.10. Stop currently $137.50 in the underlying, targeting new all-time highs.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2006 6:54:24 PM

INTC longs want to see the stock hold up above 18.23, 10 day ema. As long as it does that, the rest is noise.

Tab Gilles : 7/19/2006 6:39:14 PM

Cramer need to learn the key differences.... There are two general schools of stock analysis: fundamental and technical. This feature describes the two schools and the key differences between them. Fundamental Analysis Fundamental stock analysis requires, among other things, a close examination of the financial statements for the company to determine its current financial strength, future growth and profitability prospects, and current management skills, in order to estimate whether the stock's price is undervalued or overvalued. A good deal of reliance is placed on annual and quarterly earnings reports, the economic, political and competitive environment facing the company, as well as any current news items or rumours relating to the company's operations. Simply put, fundamental analysis concerns itself with the "basics" of the business in assessing the worth of a stock. Numerous ratios, derived from balance sheet and income statement data, are used in fundamental analysis including such widely used ratios as, Working Capital Ratio, Debt-equity Ratio, Return on Equity Ratio, Earnings per Share, etc. Fundamental analysis may be the preferred method to use for mid to longer term investors. However, it is not suitable for use by day traders because of the amount of research required, and the fact that trades are entered into and exited within a very short time frame. Technical Analysis Technical analysis does not concern itself with a company's basics or fundamentals. Rather, technical analysis involves the study of a stock's trading patterns through the use of charts, trend lines, support and resistance levels, and many other mathematical analysis tools, in order to predict future movements in a stock's price, and to help identify trading oportunities. The basic foundations or premises of technical analysis are that a stock's current price discounts all information available in the market, that price movements are not random, and that patterns in price movements, in very many cases, tend to repeat themselves or trend in some direction. Bob Prechter, a famous practitioner of technical analysis once commented that, "... the main problem with fundamental analysis is that its indicators are removed from the market itself. The analyst assumes causality between external events and market movements, a concept which is almost certainly false. But, just as important, and less recognized, is that fundamental analysis almost always requires a forecast of the fundamental data itself before conclusions about the market are drawn. The analyst is then forced to take a second step in coming to a conclusion about how those forecasted events will affect the markets! Technicians only have one step to take, which gives them an edge right off the bat. Their main advantage is that they don't have to forecast their indicators." A very large number of technical indicators have been developed over the years, including the widely used overbought/oversold indicators such as the Relative Strength Index, and the trend following indicators such as Moving Averages. While technical analysis can be a great help in trading the market, no technical indicator is infallible. Further, technical analysis is only as good as its interpreter. Finally, a significant of time must be spent in learning the principles of technical analysis, and in how to properly interpret the various charts and other technical indicators.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2006 6:37:27 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1460, raise stop to 1470, lock in +10 ($200 per), sell to close limit 1530.
Trade is +40 now and we have a huge 11 point jump after hours, so we stay long until the target of 1530.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 6:36:11 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2006 6:33:51 PM

Everyone knew INTC was going to put in a bad quarter. Now it's about value going forward.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2006 6:32:13 PM

NVDA up 4% today, that one is going ballistic. Rock and roll. 17.5 Jan calls at long at 3.50, now closed at 4.20. Target on the trade is 22, which should double the option.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2006 6:29:00 PM

Whoever dumped INTC at 17.70 is now feeling really silly. This is why I never trade after-hours on earnings release for stocks. If you have to get out, wait for a bounce.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2006 6:27:01 PM

Back. NQ trading above weekly pivot and target of 1530 is still not reached, but it should happen this week. INTC is pulling back up from an initial drop, now at 18.50. Bad news was priced in, it's all about guidance now.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 6:11:28 PM

No, No, No Jim Cramer ... That's what FUNDAMENTALISTS do.

Mr. Cramer saying chart patterns "don't work."

Wrong ... YOU CAN SHORT a head/shoulder top pattern (long a reverse h/s pattern), have the FUNDAMENTALS that agree with the scenario. But if the stock breaks above/below the nearest shoulder and "grows into the ear of the head", that is the MARKET telling you that you were WRONG and stop out, or cut back on position!

It is the FUNDAMENTALIST that keeps hanging on, hanging on, hanging on, sometimes until the account goes to zero, that the FUNDAMENTALS are eventually revealed, which the MARKET (see technicals) figured out long before.

Been there and done that.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 6:02:39 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 5:27:31 PM

QQQQ ... DAILY Pivot Levels for Thursday ... $35.77, $36.20, Piv= $36.51, $36.94, $37.25

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 5:24:27 PM

Right on Tab ... QQQQ $36.50 and split up that 4,000,000 block in INTC at net $18.25 (for Friday closes).

Tab Gilles : 7/19/2006 5:21:03 PM

After Hours trading...

QQQQ closed $36.62/ currently $36.54/$36.55

INTC closed $18.49/ $18.11/$18.13

AAPL closed $54.10 / $58.62/$58.64

MOT closed $19.25 / $20.33/$20.35

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 5:15:17 PM

Oh My! ... 4,000,000 changed hands extended from $18.00-$18.49 in Intel.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 5:14:12 PM

INTC $18.46 +1.37% .... $18.13 extended.

I heard a "gulp" at $17.54 in extended.

Good Gravy! Somebody paid $20.00 too. USE LIMIT ORDERS folks!

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 5:11:40 PM

SMH $31.00 +0.87% .... $31.20 now

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 5:10:11 PM

Chip trader's note: ... SMH $31.51, $31.51, $31.51 ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 5:08:34 PM

American Intl. Group (AIG) $59.34 +1.64% Link ... the stock that "called the top" in the YM .... $59.34 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 5:06:51 PM

Allstate (ALL) $56.15 +1.29% ... $57.50 extended.

Company earnings release Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 5:05:39 PM

Allstate (ALL) alert $56.15 +1.29% ... jumps to $57.50 extended on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 5:03:50 PM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $31.00 +0.87% ... $31.00 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 5:00:12 PM

Qualcomm (QCOM) $36.73 -1.79% Link ... $34.40 extended (the fly in the ointment)

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 4:58:22 PM

Nokia (NOK) $19.33 +3.20% .... $19.50 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 4:57:29 PM

Texas Instruments (TXN) $28.20 +0.35% ... $28.35 extended.

More "like" MOT

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 4:54:25 PM

Educational: for those short-term traders following my earlier MOT notes of trading halt, then noting where the INET offers were at.

See what I/we did with RIMM back on 03/03/06 Link starting 05:08:48 PM EDT.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 4:50:27 PM

Advanced Micro (AMD) $21.46 +4.42% ... $21.22 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 4:49:50 PM

Intel (INTC) $18.46 +1.37% ... $18.02 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 4:49:12 PM

Dell (DELL) $22.47 +5.29% ... $22.25 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 4:46:01 PM

MOT's July Max pain Theory tabulated at $20.00 ($2.50 increments)

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 4:44:09 PM

I tried, but didn't get filled. Must have gotten my order in behind somebody elses.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 4:43:05 PM

If you're a short-term trader and got filled at some of those near-price INET offers, I'd be a dumper here at $20.80. Remember RIMM!

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 4:42:10 PM

Motorola (MOT) alert $19.25 +1.95% ... released for trade. $20.62 extended.

Tab Gilles : 7/19/2006 4:41:44 PM

AAPL Reuters Apple profit rises 48 pct, helped by iPod sales Wednesday July 19, 4:35 pm ET SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Apple Computer Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL - News) on Wednesday posted a 48 percent increase in quarterly net income as it sold more iPod digital music players and Intel Corp.-powered (NASDAQ:INTC - News) Macintosh computers. Apple said net income for its fiscal third quarter, ended July 1, rose to $472 million, or 54 cents per share, from $320 million, or 37 cents per share, a year earlier. Revenue rose 24 percent to $4.37 billion from $3.52 billion. Analysts expected Apple to earn 44 cents per share, on average, within a range of 40 cents to 49 cents, on revenue of $3.68 billion, according to Reuters Estimates. While sales of iPods are still rising at a respectable clip, concerns of a slowing sales growth rate have arisen in recent months, and shares of Apple are down some 24 percent since early May. Based on Tuesday's closing prices, Apple shares so far this year have declined 26 percent, compared with an 12 percent decline in the Morgan Stanley High Technology Index, of which Apple is a component. Apple stock more than doubled in 2005, after tripling in 2004, largely on booming sales of the iPod.


Reuters Intel posts sharply lower Q2 profit Wednesday July 19, 4:28 pm ET SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC - News), the world's biggest chipmaker, on Wednesday posted a sharply lower second quarter profit amid fierce competition from rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NYSE:AMD - News). The technology heavyweight also said it expected sales for the third quarter to be between $8.3 billion and $8.9 billion, lower than the average analyst expectation of $9.03 billion, according to Reuters Estimates. Net profit for the second quarter was $885 million, or 15 cents per share, compared to $2.04 billion, or 33 cents per share a year earlier. Excluding stock-based compensation, Intel said it earned $1.12 billion, or 19 cents per share, compared with $2.04 million a year earlier. On that basis, Intel had been expected to show a profit of $808 million, or 13 cents per share, according to the average analyst forecast on Reuters Estimates. Revenue in the second quarter was $8 billion, down from $9.23 billion a year earlier and below the average forecast of $8.23 billion.


Reuters Motorola posts higher quarterly profit Wednesday July 19, 4:34 pm ET NEW YORK (Reuters) - Motorola Inc. (NYSE:MOT - News), the world's second biggest cellphone maker, said on Wednesday its second-quarter earnings and revenue rose on a tax benefit and a legal settlement as well as strong demand for its cellphones, including its flagship Razr phone. The Schaumburg, Illinois-based company posted earnings of 55 cents a share compared with 37 cents a share in the year-ago quarter. Revenue rose 29 percent to $10.88 billion from $8.41 billion. Motorola said earnings from continuing operations were 54 cents a share, including a 21 cent benefit from unusual items such as tax benefits and a litigation settlement. Analysts, on average, had expected earnings of 29 cents a share on revenue of $10.12 billion, according to Reuters Estimates. The analysts' forecast was comparable to Motorola's reported earnings per share from continuing operations, excluding special gains, of 31 cents, according to Reuters Estimates. Motorola forecast third-quarter revenue of between $10.9 billion and $11.1 billion. Motorola said it sold 51.9 million handsets in the quarter and that its share of the cellphone market rose to 22 percent from 21 percent in the first quarter. Motorola shares traded at $19.28 in after-hours trade on Inet after closing up 37 cents at $19.25 on the New York Stock Exchange. Motorola's stock has fallen almost 20 percent in the last three months on concerns about its reliance on the Razr for growth amid intensifying competition and slowing demand. Motorola's shares trade at almost 14 times 2007 earnings estimated by analysts, compared with a multiple of more than 16 times for bigger rival Nokia (NOK1V.HE), which has improved its phone lineup after it was criticized for lagging behind Motorola in design.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 4:40:19 PM

Intel (INTC) $18.46 +1.37% ... $17.98 extended. After-hours low/high has been $17.54-$18.50

Tab Gilles : 7/19/2006 4:38:14 PM

Mixed bag INTC down in AHT, while AAPL is up?

QQQQ $36.62 close AHT $36.45

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 4:37:06 PM

QQQQ $36.62 +1.30% ... $36.44 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 4:35:48 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $54.10 +2.26% ... $55.08 extended.

Company Earnings release Link

Tab Gilles : 7/19/2006 4:35:19 PM

APPL up $55.60/$55 in AHT

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 4:34:07 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) alert $54.10 +2.26% ... jumps to $55.36 on headline numbers. It's a NASDAQ-100 marathon of earnings!

Tab Gilles : 7/19/2006 4:33:58 PM

Apple (AAPL) Q3 EPS $ 0.54 per diluted share. WOW!!! 10 cents ahead


webcast Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 4:32:25 PM

YUM Brands (YUM) $49.13 ....

Company Earnings Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 4:31:20 PM

YUM Brands (YUM) halted alert ... $49.13 +3.21% Link ... news pending.

Tab Gilles : 7/19/2006 4:25:53 PM

AHT INTC $17.90/$17.95

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 4:25:49 PM

eBay (EBAY) $25.93 -2.48% ... $26.77 extended.

Company Earnings release Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 4:24:32 PM

eBay (EBAY) alert $25.93 -2.48% Link ... Another IBM?

Higher at $26.94 on headline numbers.

Tab Gilles : 7/19/2006 4:23:21 PM

Intel Outlook Link

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 4:22:45 PM

The sellers brought NQ back to its previous day highs 1489.25 (to the TICK) right before the bell.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 4:21:54 PM

OK ... seeing Tab's 04:17:23 post ... 49% forward.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 4:20:56 PM

Intel's Q2 Margins were 52.1, slight above 49% consensus.

What's their guidance forward Tab?

Tab Gilles : 7/19/2006 4:20:51 PM

After hours trading down slightly ranging between $18.15/$18.20

Tab Gilles : 7/19/2006 4:18:42 PM

Appears at first that they are lowering margins to gains sales in the chip war with AMD.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 4:18:10 PM

Intel (INTC) $18.46 +1.37% ... $18.15 extended.

Company earnings release Link

Tab Gilles : 7/19/2006 4:17:23 PM

INTC Q2 EPS $0.15, est were $0.13

$8.01B Reves

Problem ....new outlook $8.3 to $8.9B originally $9.1B Lowers gross margins to 49%

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 4:16:33 PM

Intel (INTC) alert $18.46 +1.37% ... all over the board in extended on earnings.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 4:15:45 PM

Motorola (MOT) ... Company earnings release Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 4:14:29 PM

Looks like good numbers from MOT ... seeing INET offers $19.35, $19.49, $19.50, $19.53 ... then $19.71. Once stock is released for trade, those are fair game.

Tab Gilles : 7/19/2006 4:13:50 PM

Intel Second-Quarter Revenue $8 Billion Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 4:11:17 PM

Motorola (MOT) halted alert $19.25 +1.95% ... earnings

Tab Gilles : 7/19/2006 4:11:05 PM

Motorola (MOT) Earnings (Q2 2006) $0.33

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 4:10:19 PM

Qualcomm (QCOM) $36.73 -1.79% ... $33.29 extended.

Company earnings release Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 4:08:57 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPY $125.90 : YM 11,056

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 4:07:20 PM

Qualcomm (QCOM) alert $36.73 -1.79% ... sharply lower at $33.73 on headline numbers

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 4:02:08 PM

That's just downright dirty. NYT $22.24 -1.89% closing at a multi-year low on a day like today. Ruthless....

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 3:59:08 PM

Oooo! I know what I should have done/suggested with the NYT trade. With volatility now falling so much.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 3:53:19 PM

Use the NYSE 10-day NH/NL chart as a "reason" to cover some NYST short.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 3:51:17 PM

Don't want to get "too bullish" with INTC and GS. Not yet. Easy does it. Book'em when we get'em.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 3:50:13 PM

Swing trade cover partial short alert .... Let's cover 1/2 of the 1/2 (so 1/4) of The New York Times (NYT) at the offer of $22.35.


Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 3:48:59 PM

Let's do this ....

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 3:46:26 PM

However, the permabear inside me looks at NQ and sees that it has not even made a 38.20% retracement let alone made it to the June 14th lows. If ES and YM want to retest June 7th highs NQ needs to get on the bullish bandwagon and so far it has not.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 3:45:58 PM

I'd be a "hog" if short a full position in the NYT and not taking some gains off the table. Nothing nicer than covering a short at a 52-week low.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 3:42:43 PM

ES and YM have both broken above their 61.80% retracement levels and that tells me the June 7th highs could easily be retested.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 3:40:46 PM

At 4:15 p.m. CDT (5:15 p.m. EDT) today, July 19, 2006, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) will make an announcement regarding regulatory oversight procedures.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 3:39:27 PM

New York Times (NYT) alert $22.25 -1.85% ... notable new 52-weeker at the big board.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 3:39:20 PM

The double bottoms made on the 17th with the bullish MACD divergences and today's rally has put a whole new face on the charts and I have to admit that they have turned a lot more bullish than I expected. I was extremely hesitant to go long any of the markets because I fully believed we would see a little rally that we could sell into and then make new yearly lows. Needless to say today has made that scenario a lot less likely.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 3:38:04 PM

Still has me thinking ... the dollar is NOT entirely a read on the Fed.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 3:36:57 PM

Folks ... I haven't gotten one, not one "hot news flash" from Dow Jones today regarding geopolitics.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 3:34:24 PM

A lot of "bad ticks" to the downside on stocks (NASDAQ/NYSE) and those are usually (late reports) from earlier in the day.

Check out GG $29.00 and three bad ticks during today's session at $27.98.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 3:31:54 PM

I wasn't sure if you were still long the YM or not Jane. Good move in my opinion! Protect'em when you got'em!

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 3:29:39 PM

Intel, eBay, Apple, Motorola set to report results after the bell.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 3:26:39 PM

SPX 1,260.24 +1.88% ... still 20-points off its July 3rd relative high.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 3:25:53 PM

Economic Reports for tomorrow include:

8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims For July 16 Wk. Consensus: -22K. Previous: +19K.

8:30a.m. June Conference Board Leading Indicators. Consensus: +0.2%. Previous: -0.6%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 3:25:03 PM

SPX NH/NL 15:4 ... Hey! That's the same ratio as 07/03/06 close.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 3:24:26 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 3:24:04 PM

ACtually I think I will tighten my stop a bit more to 11050

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 3:23:24 PM

I am raising my stop to ... gee Jeff's 11045 sounds good and will definately exit at the close.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 3:16:50 PM

I'm snugging up a stop on YM at 11,045 in personal account. Juuuust under WEEKLY R1. Might be a trend day higher to the close, but IBM has done more than its share today.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 3:10:43 PM

Shorted, then took fractional gain off the table in NEM right at/near these levels based on GEOPOLITICAL events on Friday.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 3:08:26 PM

Interesting, perhaps telling ... check out NEM, GLD and your dx00y within WEEKLY Pivots.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 3:06:12 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 7/19/2006 2:56:59 PM

With the market up strongly today and continuing to push higher in the face of negative divergences, do you suppose some Fed Reserve money might have made it into the market today to support their main man in front of Congress today? Nah, they wouldn't do that. The Fed certainly had an incentive to inject freshly printed money into the market today in hopes of building up the confidence in Bernanke. Never bet against big money is the message of the market today. I'm sure the mega banks were in on it too.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 2:54:19 PM

iShares Silver Trust (SLV) $111.49 +5.22% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 2:54:36 PM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $63.85 +1.51% Link ...

Tab Gilles : 7/19/2006 2:53:15 PM

$INDU Link

$SPX Link


$NYA Link

$GOLD Link

$WTIC Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 2:52:30 PM

Peru's May Zinc Output 101,771 Tons; +0.4% vs. Year-Ago

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 2:51:52 PM

Peru's May Silver Output 294,755 Kgs; +19.3% vs. Year-Ago

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 2:51:16 PM

Peru's May Copper Output 81,520 Tons; -2.1% vs. Year-Ago

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 2:50:35 PM

Peru's May Gold Output 18,061 Kgs; +26.9% vs. Year-Ago

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 2:49:45 PM

Brazil's Central Bank Buys Dollars At BRL2.179

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 2:49:17 PM

DJ- Oil Futures: Nymex Crude Ends Off Lows At $72.80; Down $0.74

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 2:47:47 PM

29 up and 1 down Link

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 2:45:39 PM


Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 2:43:48 PM

New York Times (NYT) $22.49 -0.79% ....

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 2:40:44 PM

Anyone wondering why Gold is rallying today? Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 2:41:56 PM

SMH options trade $2.50 increments ... $30 + 1.25 = $31.25 perhaps?

Yesterday's low $30.00 was July "max pain" theory value (as previously noted).

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 2:37:09 PM



Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 2:36:40 PM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $31.38 +2.11% ... wouldn't believe it if I'm not seeing it. Session high still $31.51!

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 2:34:20 PM

A rate cut? !!!!

Tab Gilles : 7/19/2006 2:33:53 PM

Weekly EIA Report link.. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 2:33:51 PM

DJ- Brazil Stocks Soar More Than 4% on Fed, Expected Rate Cut

Brazilian share prices rallied Wednesday after comments by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke before Congress that were considered to be dovish on inflation and ahead of a likely central bank rate cut.

The benchmark Ibovespa stocks index surged 4.07% to 36,562 points at 1826 GMT, from Tuesday's close at 35,130 points. Brazilian stocks had already almost doubled earlier gains right after Bernanke's speech at 1409 GMT, when they rose 2.12%.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said that economic moderation in the U.S. "seems under way," and while the recent inflation rise is "of concern," he still believed inflation expectations "remain contained."

Bernanke also noted that a slower economy should limit inflation. Bernanke said that Fed policy must be forward-looking due to policy lags. His remarks were considered dovish, making a rate pause at the August Fed meeting more probable in investors' eyes.

Rising interest rates in the U.S. and other developed nations typically sap investments from emerging markets such as Brazil.

Brazilian investors were also awaiting a Central Bank decision on interest rates after markets close. Most analysts expected another 50-basis-point rate cut.

"We, as well as almost everybody on the street, are expecting monetary authorities to cut the Selic rate by 50 basis points to 14.75%," Marcelo Salomon, an economist with Sao Paulo-based Unibanco, said in a research note Wednesday, adding that the bank expects the Selic rate to reach 14.5% by year-end.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 2:30:52 PM

Wal-Mart (WMT) alert $44.16 +2.29% ... Federal Judge rejects Maryland law mandating Wal-Mart healthcare spending.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 2:28:56 PM

Securities Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) 207/51 +4.36% ... probes correlative 21-day/200-day SMAs.

Tab Gilles : 7/19/2006 2:23:44 PM


Tab Gilles : 6/27/2006 11:20:55 AM The weekly $NASI gave a reversal signal after yesterday's close. I'd like to see a few more days go by to see if that this isn't a false reading. However, with all the other technical and sentiment reading in both the $COMPQ & $SPX giving bottoming signals, I'd say this presents a buying opportunity. My belief is that when the Fed makes it's move the markets will rally.

Bernanke's comments today propelled the markets!

It appears that the $NDX and $COMPQ found support at the May '05 lows. Looking at April '05 if one entered the UOPIX at $21 it declined to $19 over the next few weeks. Yet by Jan 2006 highs it was at $27 (+42%).


$NASI weekly chart... Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 2:23:31 PM

StemCells Inc (STEM) $2.30 -0.43% Link ... As President Bush speaks. Confirms veto of embryonic stem cell research bill.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 2:21:28 PM

Lam Research (LRCX) $44.67 +5.22% Link ....

Intel (INTC) $18.51 +1.64% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 2:18:52 PM

Oracle (ORCL) $15.10 +2.58% Link ... threatens to CLOSE a new 52-week high.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 2:12:05 PM

Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO) $23.01 +5.06% Link ... se esta' aflojando! (it is surging)

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 2:03:37 PM

Tab! Any updates on the UAPIX from 06/23/06?

UOPIX from 06/27/06?

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 2:01:56 PM

A trader certainly cannot ignore the huge bullish MACD divergence on that chart but then I think back to the huge NQ MACD divergence earlier this month that didn't go anywhere... HMMMM

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 1:59:34 PM

After that quick PnF methodology of charting, you'd think they would throw away line charts wouldn't you? (grin from an old PnF-er)

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 1:58:42 PM

Bear market rally or are we headed for a test of June 7th highs. You know what this permabear thinks! Link

Tab Gilles : 7/19/2006 1:59:58 PM

The US economy has gone from an industrial base to a service based one over the last 100 years. Inflation on a wage and commodity percentage is about a 70%/30% mix. The markets have been focused primarily on the commodity area in recent years, but in reality inflation has not really been that bad over all.

In todays speech Bernanke even stated that wage inflation is under control and not a threat.

Although the costs of energy and other raw materials are important, labor costs are by far the largest component of business costs. Anecdotal reports suggest that the labor market is tight in some industries and occupations and that employers are having difficulty attracting certain types of skilled workers. To date, however, moderate growth in most broad measures of nominal labor compensation and the ongoing increases in labor productivity have held down the rise in unit labor costs, reducing pressure on inflation from the cost side. Employee compensation per hour is likely to rise more quickly over the next couple of years in response to the strength of the labor market. Whether faster increases in nominal compensation create additional cost pressures for firms depends in part on the extent to which they are offset by continuing productivity gains. Profit margins are currently relatively wide, and the effect of a possible acceleration in compensation on price inflation would thus also depend on the extent to which competitive pressures force firms to reduce margins rather than pass on higher costs.

The projections of the members of the Board of Governors and the presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks, which are based on information available at the time of the last FOMC meeting, are for a gradual decline in inflation in coming quarters. As measured by the price index for personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy, inflation is projected to be 2-1/4 percent to 2-1/2 percent this year and then to edge lower, to 2 percent to 2-1/4 percent next year.

I'd been early over a week ago in calling for a market bottom, then the unexpected geopolitical developments in the middle-east caught the markets off gaurd. Yet as I highlighted in the 7/17 9:19 AM post, that with higher oil and war breaking out the $SPX was higher than 5 weeks ago?

Today's news from Bernanke was the "Good" news that the markets have been anticipating. That said it is still earning season and thus far 65% of reports have been positive. We still have Intel to report...that will be a pivotal report for techs, especially after the Yahoo report disappointed.

Fed link... Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 1:58:03 PM

NYSI 10-point box Link (think a/d and "guts", then NH/NL as "head/tail"

NASI 10-point box Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 1:54:39 PM

NYSE Composite Link

NASDAQ Comp Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 1:52:53 PM

NASDAQ NH/NL Ratio Chart with "f"ive day and 10-day (X,O) at this Link ... Note the difference and weakness here compared to the NYSE NH/NL Chart (01:45:27).

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 1:50:20 PM

Lebanon Prime Minister Siniora says 300 people have been killed in Israeli attacks; appeals for immediate cease-fire, according to media reports.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 1:45:27 PM

NYSE NH/NL Ratio Chart with "f"ive day and 10-day (X,O) at this Link ... Think about my recent SPY put trades and action taken. BDK trade management.

This in ONE PART of internals.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 1:38:24 PM

I got long YM at 11014 and want to hold on to this trade until the close so I don't want the stop too close but I'll be danged (sorry) if I will lose money so my stop is at 11020.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 1:29:22 PM



Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 1:28:42 PM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) alert $31.51 ... went long here on 07/13/06 and got bushwacked!

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 1:19:09 PM

Program Trading Curbs In (alert) with NYSE Comp. 8,058.00 +160 points.

Computers will still be active in individual stocks.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 1:17:33 PM

SPX NH/NL now 13:3. Was 11:3 at 11:00 AM EDT.

Keene Little : 7/19/2006 1:16:46 PM

After a relatively minor pullback the new highs here are being met with lots of negative divergences and lower volume so I'd say this is the last high I was thinking the rally needed (to complete a 5-wave move up from yesterday's low). I would now expect a pullback into tomorrow (and the Fib retracement zone is a little higher now).

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 1:16:40 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link ... NYSE has added 6 NH vs 4 NL

NASDAQ has added just 4 NH vs 16 NL.

Confirms thoughts of where any "bullish leadership" is at.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 1:16:24 PM

Those +1000 TICKS did pause the market though didn't they?

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 1:12:28 PM

TICKS are ringing in at +1000 but this is not an environment to be fading.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 1:10:32 PM

I just love it when the market makes me wrong!! NQ beats all markets to new daily highs.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 1:07:29 PM

I am long YM in anticipation of new daily highs.

Tab Gilles : 7/19/2006 1:06:04 PM

Intel (INTC) 120 minute chart Link

daily chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 1:04:41 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 1:01:49 PM

SMH vs. QQQQ RS Chart Link ... can change your "box size" to smaller increments and introduce more noise if you want.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 12:59:20 PM

Intel vs. SMH RS Chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 12:57:47 PM

Intel vs. QQQQ RS Chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 12:57:01 PM

A little "stock, sector, market" level analysis.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 12:55:58 PM

Oooooeeee! Intel (INTC) $18.51 +1.64% .... edges above WEEKLY R1.

SMH $31.30 +1.85% .... has been able to get above WEEKLY Pivot (don't think I'll be monitoring $31.51 after getting 1/2 position long crammed down my throat)

QQQQ $36.53 +1.05% ... still doing battle with WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 12:49:44 PM

Goldman Sachs (GS) $146.90 +3.20% ... WEEKLY R1 just ahead at $147.42 .... good "measure" against the SPY.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 12:48:44 PM

These are the times it is good to have some "key stocks" that you think give a read on WEAKNESS and STRENGTH.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 12:47:59 PM

Now ... using SPY observation, I would NOT be aggressive with a long right here. Bears will short, tight stop above today's high, use that WEEKLY $125.67 and a "leverage point" to look for some computer selling.

If that gets broken, then the next RISK LEVEL and RISK TO TREND is up at $126.33.

Buyers should be firm back at $125.00 near-term.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 12:43:54 PM

SPY 60-minute interval chart at this Link ... Same type of TREND observation as discussed in YM.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 12:36:15 PM

Agree Jane! That's where the bullish leadership is at.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 12:39:59 PM

If you want to take a long position I would use ES or YM. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 12:35:24 PM

Make note of this comment (alert)-

Bernanke: "Very Important" For Congress To Enact GSE Bill

DJ- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Wednesday that the portfolios of government-sponsored enterprises such as Fannie Mae (FNM) don't offer a lot of extra liquidity to the U.S. financial system.

But "it might be worth considering" allowing GSEs to boost their portfolios during times of stress in the housing markets if such a move would help push effective GSE legislation through Congress, he said.

Bernanke said any legislation shouldn't set a "hard cap" on portfolios, but rather any GSE regulator should have "strong guidance" to ensure that portfolios reflect the underlying missions of the GSEs.

He also said it is "very important" for Congress to enact GSE legislation this year.

Bernanke also said there are some signs that U.S. wages are catching up to past productivity gains, but cautioned "it's slow going."

He said higher wages aren't necessarily inflationary if they're matched by efficiency gains.

Asked about near-term factors that could weigh on the U.S. economy, Bernanke cited inflation, geopolitics and oil prices as near-term risks.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 12:32:31 PM

These are about as bullish as you can get and almost assuring new daily highs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 12:32:06 PM

DJ- Bernanke: Doesn't See Recession Risk As Likely

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 12:33:05 PM

Any long swing positions will be in Gold or Oil.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 12:29:27 PM

Altria (MO) $77.26 -0.36% ... not as bullish as I thought it might be today based on IBM creating a "got to buy Dow" weighting.

I would think an "angry bull" drive MO up a bear's, well, a bear's ear I guess.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 12:28:08 PM

Jeff I only trade the charts and never ever look at the fundamentals. I have always figured anything that I can find about the fundamentals others have as well so it is already built into the charts.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 12:26:40 PM

INTC is trading in a triangle but below most of the major MAs so is still bearish. It needs to break the upper trendline which is also the 100EMA before I would even consider a long here. Even then there are so many other charts that are much more bullish that I would not put any $s here that I have allocated for long positions. This is of course my opinion only. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 12:25:38 PM

I take it Jane (12:21:52) that you're not "buying into" the Vista operating system seeing a surge in renewed PC sales?

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 12:23:49 PM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $63.42 +0.82% ... 60-minute chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link ... Intersting action with gold/dollar, but other scenario's as well (geopolitical, inflation, deflation, stagflation).

Bears were licking their chops earlier this morning, but Dr. Bernanke's comments appear "dove" and bring weakness to dollar (no more interest rate hikes) and you can at least figure there were some recent long dollar/short gold trades that came off, or were cut back on.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 12:21:52 PM

I am looking to buy puts on Dell again at the support turned resistance (yellow trendline) at around 23.50, if it gets there that is. I love trading charts that are clear. Link

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 12:11:48 PM

MACD is falling nicely confirming the bullishness of the sideways consolidation. Link

Tab Gilles : 7/19/2006 12:09:49 PM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Follow-up to 7/11/06 10-:49AM post. Continue holding 1/2 position MUR, STOP $54.

In this chart using BB width indicator, it gave a slowing trend signal with a high BB reading. The trend was up for June, currently waiting to see if a low BB reading will signal a new trend. If and when...may signal a sell. MACD and RSI reading are at over bought levels. Still targeting $60 on the upside. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 12:08:46 PM

I want to buy puts on Baker Hughs (BHI) $80.18 +0.75% very, very bad. Yesterday I did trade the July $80 puts aggressively at $2.05 and it was all I could do to get the "high of the day" at $2.50 with July "Max Pain" of $80.00.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 12:08:14 PM

My fib lines we off on the QM chart. QM has retraced more than 61.80% from the July highs. Link

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 12:05:54 PM

QM, the Crude emini, has almost retraced 50% of the rally from June lows.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2006 12:05:47 PM

NQ 1500 weekly pivot could remain R until INTC.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 12:04:41 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 12:10:36 PM

This is one bearish MACD divergence that turned out very well. Link

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 12:02:36 PM

Here is one formula that is almost foolproof. Markets consolidating at daily highs = new daily highs later in the day.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 11:59:21 AM

Here is a 240 minute chart of ZG the 100 oz. Gold emini. The red trendline is the line I used to "think" about a long back on July 10th. Since then Gold retested this line (the magenta arrow) as support and as you can see has once again used it as resistance today (cyan arrow). Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 11:53:45 AM

Swing trade short lower stop alert for The New York Times (NYT) $22.40 -1.19% ... to $23.10

Keene Little : 7/19/2006 11:53:20 AM

The rally from yesterday's low might need one more new minor high (which should show lots of negative divergences on the short term charts if it does) but the last high showed negative divergence on the 5-min chart and that could have been the 5th wave up. If so we should be in the midst of a pullback to correct the rally. A 38-62% retracement gives us a potential support zones for ES at 1243.75-1251.75.

A 50% retracement would be typical and that's at 1247.75 (which happens to be the tops of the consolidation on Monday and Tuesday). It would be a normal retracement if it takes the rest of the day into tomorrow. The market might even go on hold now until the FOMC minutes are released tomorrow at 2:00.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 11:43:35 AM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) good chart for a test of strength on Friday's close. WEEKLY Inteval with one conventional use (bearish) of retracement at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 11:36:28 AM

Consumer Disc. SPDRs (XLY) $31.91 +1.55% Link ... might be some bar chart bulls that are sellers back at $32.50-$33.00 Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2006 11:35:05 AM

Gold has never rallied lately when oil is down. That is telling you something. Fear of inflation and that only comes with the belief Feds are done. Dollar should fall.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 11:33:38 AM

Don't know about you, but I'd like to short Black & Decker (BDK) back at $78.74 Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2006 11:29:47 AM

Gold is smart and is telling us the Feds are done.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2006 11:28:50 AM

There will be some INTC fear before the close, but that is a stock that is consistently shorted before earnings these days, so you never know.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2006 11:27:52 AM

Have to go. Don't even think of shorting this one of we get above 1500 on a 30 mn basis, weekly NQ pivot. Target on the trade from 1460 remains 1530.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 11:20:36 AM

Bullish swing trade call option alert for one (1) of the Goldman Sachs GS Oct $140 Calls (GS-JH) at $13.10 ($13.00 x $13.30)

GS $146.50 +2.92%

Stop will go just under recent relative lows, targeting new highs.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 11:17:19 AM

SPX NH/NL 11:3

Yesterday's tally was 4:42

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 11:16:30 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 11:12:17 AM

Wow! Check out the shift in NH/NL at NYSE and S&P 500.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 11:11:19 AM

Oil has broken its overnight lows and Gold has broken its overnight highs.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 11:10:52 AM

TBonds have done a total reversal and have now broken overnight highs and have tested previous day highs.

Keene Little : 7/19/2006 11:06:21 AM

It's looking like the high might be in for now and we should start to see a pullback to correct the rally from yesterday. If it doesn't correct much then this rally will move into the "too much too fast" category and will start to look like yet another bear market rally. The bulls would like to see more backing and filling to make the rally stronger.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 11:02:22 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 10:59:42 AM

I don't buy anthing at $13.00 even though.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 10:59:08 AM

Looking at some Goldman Sachs (GS) $146.19 +2.73% .. OCT $140 Calls (GS-JH) $12.90 x $13.10 ... "Max Pains" are largely $145 near-term months.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2006 10:49:40 AM

When markets rally like this after a big disappointment like YHOO, you have to start thinking that the market has priced in all the bad news and now wants to rally. If this is the case, it's usually the spot where bears can't make the switch and fuel further gains.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2006 10:47:43 AM

QQQQ bad tick at 39.40. Remember when we used to bet that those bad ticks actully meant something? Interesting target.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2006 10:46:54 AM

OIl is dropping and the markest keep sailing full steam.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 10:42:11 AM

I have no idea what caused the earlier weakness but ES and YM have now made new daily high. ER and NQ are still lanquishing below their daily highs. NQ is hardly above its PDH.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 10:40:21 AM

Should be swing trade bearish stopped alert on Black & Decker (BDK) $75.70 +2.43% .... at $75.34.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 10:39:47 AM

* NYSE volume 367m
* NYSE has 2,381 advancers
* NYSE has 529 decliners
* NYSE has 137 issues unchanged
* NYSE has 39 issues setting 52-week highs
* NYSE has 38 issues setting 52-week lows
* NASDAQ volume 539.4m
* NASDAQ has 2,047 gainers
* NASDAQ has 496 losers
* NASDAQ has 111 issues unchanged
* NASDAQ has 30 issues setting 52-week highs
* NASDAQ has 80 issues setting 52-week lows

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 10:39:14 AM

10-year ($TNX.X) plunging with YIELD falling 4.7 bp to 5.083%

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 10:38:33 AM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $64.10 +1.90% ... reversed losses on Dr. Bernanke's comments.

dx00y doing the same, reversing 86.78 -0.26% (30-min delayed)

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 10:36:38 AM

Buy Program Premium ... SPY 125.35 : YM 10,975

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 10:35:54 AM

Gross Inputs into Refineries up 427,000 barrels/day

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 10:35:13 AM

It is kind of hard to compare NQ to the others because it is so much weaker. Since it has already broken the June 14th lows you would expect it be the one to retrace the most but so far it has not even retraced 38.20% of its fall from the mid June highs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 10:34:25 AM

Distillate Inventories up 1,199,000 barrels

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 10:33:37 AM

Gasoline Inventories up 1,543,000 barrels

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 10:32:40 AM

Crude Oil Inventory up 151,000 barrels.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2006 10:31:01 AM

The true reason I am still holding on to this trade is how we found consistent support at QQQQ 36 and if you look ahead, there are plenty of puts at 37 and even 38. That means we could experience the kind of rally we saw in early November. Same set up.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 10:30:34 AM

ER not quite to the 50% so is not as strong as ES but stronger than YM. Link

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 10:29:29 AM

ES has made it to the 50% retracement and the stronger market. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 10:30:20 AM

Dr. Bernanke : Note his focus on RISKS ! Excellent comments from Dr. Bernanke in my opinion.

Can't "bet the ranch" on the likely outcome. Must manage the RISKS to the outcome.

Just like good account/trade management.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2006 10:27:59 AM

INTC earnings will be key for this rally to really take hold, so I'm afraid we will have more chop until then.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 10:27:53 AM

Here is an updated YM daily chart. YM did indeed make it all the way to the 38.20% retracement and I am short YM. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2006 10:26:48 AM

1477 is pivot and should hold.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 10:26:31 AM

EIA data due out in 4 minutes.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2006 10:26:19 AM

Big pullback from weekly pivot at 1500.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 10:25:30 AM

Lam Research (LRCX) $43.09 +1.50% ... the strongest technical chart among chips that I've been able to find.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 10:25:28 AM

NQ is headed to for new daily lows. NAH!!!

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 10:24:41 AM

TICKS to new daily lows.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 10:24:30 AM

Intel (INTC) $18.24 +0.16% ... and the sector bellwether.

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 10:24:02 AM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $30.88 +0.46% ... not nearly as "angry" as a bull would like.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2006 10:23:47 AM

More Bernie: "We must not consider not only what appears to be the most likely outcome, but also the risks to that outlook and the costs that would be incurred should any of those risks be realized," Bernanke said. "Policy must be flexible and ready to adjust to changes in economic projections."

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 10:23:51 AM

This is truly hard to believe. The internals are saying this should not be happening but the markets are falling.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2006 10:21:37 AM

GOOG and YHOO holding NQ back. These stocks carry weight, unfortunatley.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2006 10:19:08 AM

The Feds are not complete idiots, even though sometimes I sure think they are. They know that inflation will still rise for a brief period even after the economy slows, but that eventually it eases . This is exactly what he is saying and the markets are taking heart.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 10:17:14 AM

Yet the markets lanquish!

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2006 10:17:10 AM

INTC at 20 dma. Earnings after the close and that one is a nail biter. I think the market will be very forgiving as long as forward guidance remains adequate. The stock is cheap, trading at market multiples. Put support is strong at 17.50, but I was fooled by YHOO yesterday, although there the news was worse because of their rather strange decision to postpone the new search enegine.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 10:16:54 AM

The internals are about as bullish has I have ever seen them, just crazy! AD line +2019, AD volume climbing fast, VIX hugging daily lows and the TICK haven't even hit 0! THis is nuts.

Tab Gilles : 7/19/2006 10:15:32 AM

Markets Way Oversold

Bernanke text states---- "Persistently higher inflation would erode" the economy's performance "and would be costly to reverse," Bernanke added. "The Federal Reserve must take account of these risks in making its policy decisions." On the other hand, a slowing economy should reduce inflation pressures going forward, he indicated. A slowing housing market and more cautious consumers -- whose spending accounts for a big chunk of economic activity -- are the main factors behind the moderation in overall economic growth, Bernanke said.

Is the Fed done?

Link Link Link

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 10:14:15 AM

Fed forecasts slower growth, higher inflation in '06-'07
* Bernanke says policy lags must be taken into account
* Bernanke says slowdown underway but still hazy
* Bernanke: economy in transition, making outlook uncertain
* Bernanke says some inflation risks remain
* Bernanke says economy should slow, bringing down inflation
* Bernanke says policy must be flexible, keeps options open

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2006 10:14:02 AM

The NVDA trade is booming, now at 19.21, another stock that is making a fierce comeback off lows.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2006 10:13:29 AM

GOOG back at 400 and above 50 dma.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2006 10:13:12 AM

Excellent Jane, thanks. The markets so far like what he is saying.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2006 10:12:31 AM

The COMP hit a low yesterday just under 2003 highs of 2015 and has sinced jumped 50 points to 2067. Very impressive and it indicatesd to me that we have a real good chance of closing July above the 20 monthg MA at 2150, and that folks, will put a lid on the current bear.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 10:10:59 AM

In congressional testimony, Bernanke said the recent rise in inflation is "of concern" to the Fed, and economic moderation "seems to be under way."

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 10:10:23 AM

BIG BLUE (IBM) $77.01 +3.70% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2006 10:11:09 AM

Since consumer inflation in June slowed thanks to lower energy prices, everyone is expecting it to rise again with this month's bump in oil. But oil is dropping steadily and the markets like this. Inventories in 20 mns will shed more light. Watch gasoline more than anything.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 10:09:10 AM



Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 10:08:46 AM

10:05 Market Watch found at this Link ... The bull looks a little angered this morning!

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2006 10:08:28 AM

In fact we hit 1498 and I doubt we go higher right now. All these rallies have reversed, so taking +37 here is not a bad idea. I can't trade this in and out today as I will be away later, so I am going to let this one ride since we got in at yesterday's lows, which were, I think, the lows for July. If we get over 1500, there is little doubt we will be headed for 1530.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 10:08:18 AM

TICKS range so far today is +1300 to a low of +3 - that my friends is very bullish.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2006 10:05:25 AM

weekly pivot is 1500 and that should be where this rally stops for now until Bernie says something.

Keene Little : 7/19/2006 10:01:22 AM

Both ES and YM have climbed higher than the Fib projections I showed for each but we should still get a small consolidation and then another move higher before I'd think about the short side. Then we'll see what kind of pullback develops or more bearishly the next leg down. Right now, based on the strength of this move, I'm leaning a little more bullishly here and think we'll only get a pullback later.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 10:00:09 AM

Internals are telling me to stay on the long side and buy the dips. But remember how the bears were able to turn the bullish internals around yesterday, then of course the bulls were able to turn them again. Yesterday was quite the day.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 9:57:47 AM

Ridiculous how these two are tied at hip. Notice where VIX opened and where ES opened. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/19/2006 9:57:33 AM

The NQ long from 1460 is now +30. I would advise some of you to take some profits, but I will hold on with the stop at 1464. The reason? Opex and the fact that we could actually move up to QQQQ 37.50 by the end of the week, IF Bernanke does not throw a time bomb. The markets feel like they have put in a bottom of sorts and that is not the time to bail too early. Let it run, although we should pullback here at some point. Weekly R1 is at 1530 and that will be the target for this trade.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 9:53:16 AM

Another +1000 TICK

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 9:51:20 AM

YM 10893

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 9:50:36 AM

10902 - 15 = 10887

Jeff Bailey : 7/19/2006 9:49:36 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link ... In "salvage mode" for the CUH-SE and BDQ-SO (get what you can as long as commissions aren't larger than the sale itself)

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 9:49:33 AM

If a TICK fade here does not work then you know the bulls are strong today.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 9:48:29 AM

Benchmark YM at 10902.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 9:47:53 AM

ES and ER now to new daily highs and the TICK hit +1000.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 9:47:10 AM

Internals remain quite strong but the bulls are struggling.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 9:38:39 AM

AD line is now +1132

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 9:38:29 AM

VIX falling, AD volume and line climbing and the bulls continue to show their dominance today.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 9:37:17 AM

ER is approaching its PDH at 690.30 so it should find resistance there.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 9:35:18 AM

ES and YM both open above their respective PDHs but NQ and ER open with their previous day ranges.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 9:33:19 AM

VIX and TRIN both below their PDLs so that does it for me and the bulls have the reins.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 9:32:50 AM

AD line is a "kind of bullish" at +394 and AD volume is above 0.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 9:30:29 AM

One has to wonder if that double bottom will hold and the bulls just wanted to give us all a gret big scare. NAH! I still like a retracement back to the 38.20% at 10957 for a short. Of course give yourself a little room for that short and don't make YM reach exactly 10957. Link

Keene Little : 7/19/2006 9:24:25 AM

That was a bit of a wild ride after the 8:30 reports (mainly the CPI data). Think there might be a little disagreement as to what the data will mean for the Fed and therefore the market? I'm hoping to see a little consolidation/pullback early this morning and then another move higher. That will then set up the pullback/start of the next leg down.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 8:49:19 AM

Dateline WSJ WASHINGTON -- The pace of consumer price growth moderated in June as energy prices declined for the first time since February.

Meanwhile, home builders, saddled with bulging inventory and worries over interest rates, broke ground at a lower rate in June, while permits for future construction fell a fifth straight month.

June consumer prices increased by 0.2%, after climbing 0.4% in May, the Labor Department said Wednesday. Core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy items, grew 0.3% in June for the fourth consecutive month at that pace.

The core increase was just above Wall Street expectations while the overall consumer prices were in line with expectations. The median estimate of 22 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC had projected a 0.2% gain in the main number and a 0.2% rise in the core.

Investors will be looking to testimony on Capitol Hill later Wednesday by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke about the state of the U.S. economy and possible clues about whether the central bank will hold off on raising interest rates when it meets next month. So far the Fed has raised short-term interest rates by a quarter percentage point at each of its last 17 meetings. Some analysts expect the Fed may keep interest rates steady next month as long as it appears inflation isn't rising at a fast pace.

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 8:46:49 AM

There was no doubt what the bond market thought of the 8:30 data, it didn't like it.

As normal, the commodities didn't react to the data but were weak during the entire overnight session. Oil even broke its previous day low to make an overnight low at 74.625 (based on QM). Gold's overnight low was 618.60 (based on ZG). Link

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 8:40:40 AM

Good Morning all. The markets were not sure they liked the 8:30 economic data or not. First of all they shot upwards then reversed and made new overnight lows. Link

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 8:36:21 AM

* June housing starts down 11% year-over-year
* May housing starts revised to 1.95 mln vs. 1.96 mln
* June housing starts weaker than 1.89 mln expected
* June housing starts down 5.3% to 1.85 mln

Jane Fox : 7/19/2006 8:35:40 AM

* CPI up 4.3% in past year
* June tobacco prices up 0.8%
*. June rent, owner's equivalent rent up 0.4%
* June energy prices fall 0.9%
* June real weekly earnings up 0.6%
* core CPI up 2.6% in past year, 4-1/2-year high
* June core CPI up 0.3% vs. 0.2% expected
*. June CPI up 0.2% as expected

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