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Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 1:24:47 AM

Index Pivot Matrix at this Link ... Feb bashers beware! (BIX.X) gets a trade at WEEKLY R2.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 12:39:01 AM

Dollar Index (dx00y) 86.19 ... down 0.03 points from its 03:00 PM EDT close.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 12:34:20 AM

August Gold (gc06q) down $10.90 at $621.60 on heavy overnight volume Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 12:08:15 AM

Might just have a little treat waiting for bears in the morning.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 12:06:45 AM

YM 15-minute interval chart at this Link

Keene Little : 7/20/2006 10:26:17 PM

Friday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 7/20/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 8:54:11 PM

This market is way too volatile to not give it some room.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 8:53:49 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1460, lower stop to 1460, even.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 8:53:30 PM

s1 is at 1462.75, I might do an adjustment.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 8:35:16 PM

Domino's Pizza (DPZ) $21.84 -8.54% Link ... Stock did trade its WEEKLY S2 ($21.47) with a session low of $21.00. Earnings Link

CPKI's WEEKLY S2 $24.24 (just never know for sure, but it doesn't hurt to be prepared).

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 7:58:00 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Today's Activity

Stock/Options

Swing trade shorted addition 1/4 position in the StreetTracks Gold (GLD) at the bid of $62.71. Brings current position to 3/4.

CPKI closes at 52-week low.

VERY BEARISH CLOSE on Intel (INTC) .... $17.32 extended.

Disclosure: I do not smoke cigarettes, or any other leaf product.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 6:44:30 PM

Don (alert) ... just seeing your e-mail regarding ORCL. Hang in there, I'll respond before tomorrow's open.

ORCL $15.15 +0.53% ... $15.22 extended.

I'd be hesitant to let the stock go, then be NAKED the $15 Calls. If you sell the stock and book the nice gain, then you could have risk if stock opens "hot" with no overhead supply to keep things in check.

So ... wait until tomorrow's open, then if you want to monitor CLOSELY, the mechanics are this ...

Sell long the stock and book the gain, but THEN, and you had BETTER BE DISCIPLINED, set a STOP in your mind, that if ORCL trades X-amount HIGHER than the exit point of you sell long stock, you STOP OUT of the NAKED CALLS (buy them back!).

Good, or perhaps bad example demonstrated today ... is being NAKED 77 CALLS (7,700 shares), not honoring your stop, and seeing losses build at, well $0.05 per contract should ORCL bid, bid, bid.

Right now, you're fine ... long the stock, equally weighted with CC.

You can only TAKE ON RISK by selling the long stock at this point. I don't know what PRICE (or when) you sold the Covered Calls (contract high looks like $0.40) so ... $15.00 + 0.40 = $15.40 could be a "squeeze point."

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 6:02:19 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 6:02:05 PM

Qcharts was off, shows 1477. IB low is 1482.50, we still have a gap.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 5:52:42 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

SPX NH/NL 20:18 ... both its 5-day and 10-day ratio identical at 29.4%.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 5:40:36 PM

What is going on? MSFT still up at 24, GOOG up above 390, but QQQQ dropped to 36.17.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 5:26:43 PM

Power is back on here at the house.

Good gravy! Who turned out the lights?

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 4:56:04 PM

AMGN sizzles as well. That one has mucho weight with QQQQ.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 4:53:14 PM

AMD is getting clobbered after earnings and INTC catches a bid. Hmm.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 4:47:03 PM

GOOG finds buyers and is now back above 200 dma. These 2 companies might have just saved bulls.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 4:41:24 PM

GOOG drops. MSFT holds on.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 4:40:19 PM

I just wish Bush had appointed a market savvy Fed, not an academnic like Bernanke. He doesn't care about the stock market. What a rookie. The stock market is 401K's, pension plans and investment in America and jobs. I am so sick of that guy, I just want to slam my computer at times. But a head butt will suffice. Zid Vicious.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 4:33:47 PM

NQ back above 50%. Jeez Louise.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 4:33:23 PM

GOOG testing 390, this is key. MSFT at 24.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 4:31:37 PM

Solid, solid, solid, That will play into opex as well as they don;t have to cover those puts.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 4:31:02 PM

NQ opens at 1483.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 4:30:39 PM

MSFT could get to May highs at this rate. Unreal bounce.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 4:29:45 PM

GOOG has to hold 390.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 4:29:10 PM

Google 2Q Earnings Surpass Expectations AP Online, Thursday, July 20, 2006 at 15:12 SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Internet search engine leader Google Inc. reports second-quarter earnings of $721.1 million on revenue of $2.46 billion to beat analyst expectations.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 4:26:32 PM

GOOG bid 397, back above 200 dma. There is a God.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 4:26:11 PM

NQ opens in 5 mns, but it should gap up at least 5 points.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 4:25:28 PM

Bulls should hold on this rally for now.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 4:23:53 PM

"We delivered a very strong finish to the fiscal year highlighted by customer demand for our recently launched products of Xbox 360(TM), SQL Server(TM) 2005, Visual Studio(R) 2005 and Microsoft Dynamics(TM) CRM 3.0, which fueled a combined 31% revenue growth of their business groups for the quarter," said Chris Liddell, chief financial officer of Microsoft. "Our upcoming launches of Windows Vista(TM), the 2007 Microsoft(R) Office system, Exchange Server 2007, and other key products position us to continue to deliver strong revenue growth in fiscal year 2007. We are also very pleased that both the Microsoft Business Solutions and the Mobile and Embedded Devices businesses achieved profitability for the full fiscal year." The company also announced that its board of directors has authorized new share repurchase programs, comprised of a $20 billion tender offer scheduled to be completed on August 17, 2006, as well as authorization for up to an additional $20 billion ongoing share repurchase program with an expiration of June 30, 2011. Furthermore, the company also announced today that it completed its previously announced $30 billion stock repurchase program.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 4:22:50 PM

20 July 2006, 4:16pm ET Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) today announced record fourth quarter revenue of $11.80 billion for the period ended June 30, 2006, a 16% increase over the same quarter of the prior year. Operating income for the quarter was $3.88 billion, a 30% increase compared with $2.99 billion in the prior year period. Operating income for the fourth quarter included certain legal charges of $351 million, compared with $756 million in the prior year period. Net income for the fourth quarter was $2.83 billion and diluted earnings per share were $0.28, which included $0.03 of certain legal charges. For the same quarter of the previous year, net income was $3.70 billion and diluted earnings per share were $0.34, which included $0.05 of certain legal charges and $0.09 of tax benefits.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 4:21:54 PM

MSFT 24, it looks like bulls averted a disaster

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 4:21:29 PM

QQQQ 36.23, up .15 from close

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 4:20:46 PM

INTC jumps as well. GOOG flat.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 4:19:47 PM

MSFT lurching ahead at 24!

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 4:19:30 PM

YM bids while NQ is closed.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 4:16:27 PM

I have the rest of the afternoon working my sick computer - let's hope I am here tomorrow :)

Keene Little : 7/20/2006 4:16:05 PM

If you're long YM into the close I think your stop would have to be something (whatever you're comfortable with) below 10950 which is its 38% retracement of this week's rally. That could easily be tested and is the other level I'd think about getting long if it's tagged overnight or early tomorrow morning.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 4:14:25 PM

5 dma ha smoved down to 1481.75, and bulls need that close above.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 4:13:51 PM

MSFT or GOOG sneezes, bulls can go the way of Pamplona, a blade stuck between their shoulders.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 4:12:34 PM

There are not major economic reports due for release tomorrow.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 4:08:48 PM

1470 held, 76.4% and why my stop is a hair below at 1468.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 4:06:58 PM

ES and Ym did indeed not break their PDLs but we still have tomorrow.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 4:07:42 PM

Bernanke is telling us Dems will win the house? He is sure not helping Republicans if he keeps rasing rates. It will be a disaster in November.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 4:05:26 PM

There goes all ER gains from yesterday as well.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 4:04:58 PM

With November congressional elections on the horizon, many lawmaker questions seemed aimed at staking out positions they could use while campaigning. Bernanke, who served as President George W. Bush's key economic adviser before taking over leadership of the Fed on February 1 from former Chairman Alan Greenspan, said he agreed with Greenspan that lagging incomes and income inequalities were a potential problem. "Increasing inequality is a very long-term trend, we've seen this for about 25 years," he said. Bernanke added that this stemmed partly from the need for higher education skills but warned that "if people at the bottom end are not sharing in the benefits of open markets and flexible capitalism, they are going to react against it politically." Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 4:02:23 PM

GOOG loses 200 dma. There is no faith out there.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 4:01:33 PM

I was telling my sister that yesterday looked so much like a bear market rally then of course I had to explain to her what indeed a bear market rally was.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 4:01:30 PM

I can't imagine QQQQ 36 giving way with all those puts, but...

Keene Little : 7/20/2006 4:01:03 PM

YM 10970 seems to be holding but it sure would have been nice to get a bounce. Just hugging the bottom here.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 4:01:02 PM

The sickening bearishness is back, once again.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 4:00:08 PM

SMH 30.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 3:59:58 PM

QQQQ 36.05.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 3:59:36 PM

NQ at 61.8%.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 4:00:44 PM

INTC closes the gap. Better hold now.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 3:58:59 PM

Back. Jane, I owe you a coffee.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 3:53:38 PM

Next market to watch is ER, PDL here is 685.10.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 3:52:47 PM

Marc I like my coffee with cream and sugar. :)

Keene Little : 7/20/2006 3:51:48 PM

I like the setup into the close. I'd be a buyer with a touch at 10970. You'd have to subject yourself to overnight action and it would be more conservative to wait until tomorrow morning. The risk is that we'll start with a small gap up (I don't expect anything big) and that increases your risk as far as stop placement.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 3:51:33 PM

Dateline WSJ

The Securities and Exchange Commission filed charges against Greg Reyes, former chief executive of Brocade Communications Systems Inc., over past grants of stock options. Also, federal prosecutors said they have indicted Mr. Reyes for fraud. More details are expected shortly.

Ahead of the charges, the lawyer for Mr. Reyes issued a statement saying said his client is "innocent" and that he will prove Mr. Reyes's innocence in court if necessary.

Richard Marmaro, a partner in the Los Angeles office of Skadden Arps Slate Meagher & Flom, said there have been no allegations of self-enrichment or self-dealing regarding Reyes. He said: "It is surprising that in an area where the government is investigating at least 60 companies [over stock options] the government would choose to charge Mr. Reyes. Mr. Reyes is not even alleged to have granted himself any of the options at issue in the case, nor is there even an allegation that he made any money through the alleged option irregularities. All he did was what his Board authorized him to do."

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 3:32:31 PM

NQ PDL is 1479.50 and daily lows so far are 1481.50. Just two more points for my virtual coffee. Who owes whom if daily lows are 1479.50?

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 3:22:02 PM

ES testing daily lows again as VIX makes new daily highs.

Keene Little : 7/20/2006 3:21:22 PM

YM's drop this afternoon has taken on a descending wedge look, which should be bullish. That's why I say if we get another drop into the close and it gets down near 10970 I'd try to buy it again. It should be good for a nice rally tomorrow (only thing that bothers me with that scenario is that it's Friday and opex Fridays, let alone summer Fridays, have tended to be boring). Link

Keene Little : 7/20/2006 3:10:43 PM

YM pushed back down for another test of the bottom of its channel and looks like it will leave a bullish divergence on the 10-min chart. That was the place to buy it (10985 low so within ticks of potential support at yesterday's noon low at 10982). If long, I'd keep a stop just below that level and then if stopped out watch to see if a Fib projection at 10970 holds another drop lower.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 3:09:32 PM

I looked that up Marc but you are right - now I know how to spell it.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 3:09:18 PM

The YM dip with divergence worked, but it sure took courage to step in. Same with NQ. They are basically holding on to 5 dma and NDX 1475.I am sure glad I am long from 37 points lower.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 3:07:19 PM

Fait accomplit (accomplished fact). I have a French wife, I must correct. Jane, at this point I feel like smoking again, just like Jeff.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 3:05:34 PM

I am thinking you might win at this point.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 3:05:31 PM

... although AD line is now below -1000.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 3:04:57 PM

YM holds 23.6%/76.4% 2006.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 3:04:54 PM

Marc it is not a fait a comple yet.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 3:03:28 PM

Jane, how do you like your coffee?

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 3:00:54 PM

YM does the dip with bull diver

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 2:58:10 PM

I cannot believe the deals DELL just e-mailed me. There are going to have a killer Q3 with back to svhool and people jumping in on this stuff. The 20" wide aspect flat panel (2007 wfp)at 367.20 is unreal, 800 to 1 contrast and dual dvi. That is one sweet monitor for traders.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 2:51:09 PM

INTC does not even hit 50% of gap and is now back at 17.50. Obviously, with all those puts.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 2:49:45 PM

Just had a brief "power grid" outage here.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 2:49:45 PM

Jane, I like it black.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 2:47:16 PM

Just stay away from the second hand smoke, Jeff. I heard it kills you.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 2:46:29 PM

TRINNQ .99.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 2:46:19 PM

Opening up a 4th pack Jane!

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 2:45:31 PM

Jane, we held...

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 2:40:17 PM

All that money and they can't even get the OS out for Christmas. I still can't believe it.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 2:39:39 PM

YM 11,001

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 2:39:24 PM

MO's WEEKLY R1 $78.59, R2 $79.73 ... MO $79.20

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 2:38:31 PM

BA's WEEKLY R1 is $80.55 ... BA $80.76 here.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 2:37:55 PM

INTC in the gap: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 2:35:40 PM

Everybody needs a good word from Softie. DO NOT DELAY VISTA ANY FURTHER!!! Lie if you have to.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 2:35:33 PM

Intel (INTC) $17.45 -5.62% ...

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 2:34:33 PM

NYSE DECLINERS OUTNUMBER ADVANCERS 21 TO 12

DOW INDUSTRIALS DECLINERS OUTNUMBER ADVANCERS 18 TO 12

NASDAQ DECLINERS OUTNUMBER ADVANCERS 21 TO 8

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 2:34:33 PM

Applied Materials (AMAT) $15.00 -5.36% ... whack'k'k'k'k'

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 2:33:33 PM

NQ 30 mn and fibs: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 2:33:33 PM

Altria (MO) $79.20 +2.25% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 2:33:07 PM

Boeing (BA) $80.92 -1.66% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 2:32:45 PM

I'm thinking about it Keene ....

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 2:31:07 PM

NQ 1484.50 is also 50% of this rally. Bears have not won yet.

Keene Little : 7/20/2006 2:29:55 PM

Arghh, may have missed it but actually if it does a very brief consolidation near the lows here and then drops to a minor new low then the downside pattern would look even better for a low. I'd like to see bullish divergence at the new low to add confidence in trying a long.

Keene Little : 7/20/2006 2:28:32 PM

Who's ready to buy YM at 10990? Only a couple of points from potential support near 10982 and it's at the bottom of its channel. It worked its way down a little faster than I thought it would be it looks like a good setup here. Stop should be no lower than about 10970. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 2:28:25 PM

NDX option chain. Big support at 1475: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 2:27:24 PM

I started at the "June Lows" Jane ... up to three packs a day!

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 2:24:45 PM

NDX 1475 is put supportive.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 2:24:32 PM

I'm stepping away. Jane, odds are creeping in on youre side, but I am still seeing support at 5 dma...

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 2:22:42 PM

* FOMC mindful of risk of sharper housing market slowdown
* tough fed talk pushed inflation expectations lower
* June statement meant more rate hikes 'not foreordained
* one FOMC member called June rate hike 'close call'
* FOMC split on whether rate policy is restrictive or loose
* FOMC split on inflation outlook, most saw it moving lower
* entire FOMC concerned about core inflation in June

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 2:22:38 PM

COMP 5 dma is 2049.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 2:21:56 PM

The housing market will love a break of TNX below 50.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 2:20:59 PM

I can't believe bonds are starting a run with TNX at 5.3, but remember that big hedge fund manager and the video a few weeks ago? He called buying bonds the next big trade ahead.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 2:19:13 PM

Still holding above 1483...

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 2:18:15 PM

I think you win Jane. They might just want to visit QQQQ 36? I should have said 1475 support....

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 2:17:51 PM

Its a virtual coffe Marc. I will email you one if you win. :)

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 2:17:07 PM

Didn't you know Jeff, in bear markets people smoke more (smile) just kidding.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 2:17:06 PM

YOu're on, Jane. (but only coffee, cheap enough..hang on, we are not even in the same state!!)

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 2:16:06 PM

Money is going to bonds today, no doubt. Have they decided that is the trade going forward?

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 2:15:55 PM

Altria (MO) alert $79.11 +2.13% .... new all-time high!

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 2:15:40 PM

Marc how about we put a cup of coffee on it. If NQ breaks PDLs you owe me a coffee and if it does not I owe you one. :)

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 2:15:34 PM

A sea of red on my screen. Even gold and oil AND TNX. Wow. How often do you see that?

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 2:14:24 PM

5 dma holds and small bounce. I will give it to the bears below 1482, but not quite yet.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 2:14:02 PM

UVA-AW $4.00 x $4.20

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 2:13:26 PM

But it sure is not in the ADDEC line. But VXN, TRINNQ look supportive.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 2:12:38 PM

VXN now red. Jane, I have to disagree with you, I see lots of support in NQ.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 2:12:26 PM

TRIN makes a new daily high following the VIX's new daily highs.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 2:11:55 PM

I do not expect ES and YM to totally reverse yesterday's gain today. Next week maybe but not today.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 2:11:57 PM

TRINNQ has dropped from a high of 3.44(!) to a low of .67, now at 1. That makes it neutral with a bullish bias.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 2:11:07 PM

I was thinking PDLs would be support if they were reached today but I'm not so sure that will be the case with NQ.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 2:10:23 PM

5 dma support for NQ is holding and should hold ahead of the big stuff.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 2:09:58 PM

Remember what I said this morning, watch NQ for evidence of bullishness. So far there has been none.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 2:09:54 PM

NVDA will get hurt on a MSFT Vista problem, so if you are in that trade, feel free to take some off for safety. You must be aware of the risk. Smart money will immediately scoop up this stock if MSFT stays the course, so there is upside risk as well. Tough day, tough week.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 2:09:26 PM

SMH $30.27 -2.35% ... sets up for test of $30.00 (again)

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 2:08:09 PM

Keep it coming Marc! GLD $62.85 -1.84% ....

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 2:08:06 PM

NQ's PDL is 1479 and NQ is now at 1484 almost a total reversal of yesterday.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 2:07:34 PM

This entire rally will fall apart on MSFT and GOOG or stay the course.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 2:07:18 PM

There goes Es again to new daily lows and now VIX to new daily highs.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 2:06:43 PM

And then there are rentals, which account for 40%. Guess what: rentals go up when rates go up because no one can buy anymore.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 2:06:16 PM

A lot of movement since that +1000 TICK reading.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 2:05:24 PM

Here is a 1 minute chart of YM. Link

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 2:05:07 PM

This is getting crazy!

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 2:04:58 PM

Remember that inflation always rises even after the economy slows. That is what we are seeing now. It is like a huge ship that turns very slowly, but it should do so eventually. The Feds know this and I sure hope they act on it.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 2:03:19 PM

That TICK fade would have been a good one but you had to be quick. These fades are finicky little things aren't they?

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 2:03:16 PM

But Greenspan always worried about higher oil hurting the consumer. Bernanke is only now coming to that posture after telling us he was more worried about inflation. Forget inflation, we will have deflation at this rate.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 2:02:02 PM

Sure glad I didn't sell ES's new daily lows. TICK +1000.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 2:01:41 PM

Hey, Greenspan did it and was not ashamed to admit he was wrong. That was in 1998 and it sparked a 2 year rally, the final leg of the bull run.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 2:00:18 PM

Of course the FOMC minutes will contradict me.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 2:00:42 PM

Rates are going down as it now appears the Feds are truly done or close. The question will be have they gone to far. I think we could even see a rate drop in in the fall.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 1:57:55 PM

Now we are having the "too weak economy" syndrome.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 1:53:41 PM

INDU "Big 10" 4 up and 6 down. BA -1.04%, CAT -2.61% ... MO +1.76%, MMM +0.52%

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 1:52:18 PM

IBM $75.62 -0.59% ... downgraded today.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 1:51:50 PM

Intel (INTC) $17.43 -5.73% ....

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 1:51:31 PM

... in other words there was no follow through.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 1:50:50 PM

VIX did not make a new daily high and sure enough ES's new daily lows did not hold.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 1:49:06 PM

ES and YM both tag their 38.20% fib retracements and so far they hold.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 1:47:15 PM

NQ juuussst about to its PDL.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 1:46:50 PM

OK ... I might profile a trade today.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 1:45:38 PM

I do not expect ES new daily lows to hold because of the VIX.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 1:45:08 PM

Jeff not today. Internals not clear enough.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 1:44:42 PM

Jane! Are you trading the YM?

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 1:44:29 PM

There goes ES to new daily lows but the VIX is NOT making new daily highs.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 1:43:44 PM

... and surpasses its 61.80%

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 1:43:24 PM

Er to new daily lows.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 1:42:35 PM

Es making another attempt at daily lows here.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 1:41:12 PM

Goldman Sachs (GS) $146.17 -0.54% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 1:39:56 PM

RYAN BECK POSTPONES ITS IPO

DJ- Brokerage firm puts off its offering citing poor market conditions, a week after Cowen Group's poor debut. Ryan Beck was among a group of Wall Street firms that decided to float shares following Thomas Weisel's strong debut in February.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 1:39:02 PM

NOKIA PROFIT UP 43% ON HANDSET SALES

DJ- Finnish telecom giant's 2Q net profit rises to $1.4 billion, driven by continued strong sales of high-end mobile phones. Earnings miss analysts' expectations, but sales are slightly better than expected.

NOK $19.70 +1.91% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 1:37:07 PM

PFIZER 2Q NET FALLS 30% ON ITEMS

DJ- Drug maker reports net income of $2.42 billion, or 33c a share, including income-tax hit and higher merger-related costs. Excluding items, EPS of 50c tops estimates by 2c. Revenue rises 3% to $11.74 billion. Firm boosts full-year profit outlook.

PFE $23.84 +2.31% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 1:31:01 PM

APPLE SURGES; IPOD, MAC SALES BOOST 3Q

DJ- Shares climb more than 13% a day after computer maker reports fiscal 3Q net of $472 million, or 54c a share, as sales climb 24% to $4.37 billion on higher sales of iPods and flagship Macintosh computers.

Apple Computer (AAPL) $61.24 +13.19% Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 1:30:49 PM

FOMC minutes on tap.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 1:29:15 PM

FORD POSTS 2Q LOSS; WILL ACCELERATE TURNAROUND

DJ- Ford Motor says it will jump start its 'Way Forward' restructuring plan after the company posts a 2Q loss of $123 million, or 7c a share, down from a year-ago profit of $946 million, as revenue falls 5.8% to $42 billion. Excluding items, Ford loses 3c a share. Wall Street expected EPS of 12c on revenue of $39.7 billion. Auto maker plans to reduce its North American production capacity by 15%, or 700,000 vehicles, by the end of 2006.

F $6.21 -1.89% Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 1:26:31 PM

Bernanke: Rise in Core Prices Not 'Statistical Illusion'

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 1:24:05 PM

SPX NH/NL 15:11

Yesterday's tally 15:6

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 1:21:28 PM

Utilities HOLDRs (UTH) $121.57 +0.67% ... set to challenge October all-time highs of $123.72

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 1:15:01 PM

I am trying the upload on a different machine now and this only took 2 minutes instead of the usual 5. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 1:14:30 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 1:03:44 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 1:00:23 PM

Charts can have long memories. Here is a daily chart of ZG the 100 oz gold emini with a trendline from November 2004. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 12:59:19 PM

U.S. Bolton: Israel Force vs. Hezbollah Not Excessive ... MSNBC

Countering an assessment by U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan, U.S. Ambassador John Bolton said Thursday that Israel isn't going too far in its military efforts against Lebanon's Hezbollah militia.

"I don't think that the use of force by Israel is excessive," Bolton said in an interview on MSNBC.

Earlier Thursday, Annan called for an immediate halt to the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, and he condemned what he called Israel's "excessive use of force" and collective punishment of the Lebanese people.

Bolton called Annan's assessment "wrong."

He said it is "important to understand that the Israeli operation is not conducted against the government of Lebanon or the people of Lebanon." Rather, Hezbollah is the target, he said.

"What we want to see is the sustained cessation of hostilities as part of new foundation for peace in the region - and that means supporting the fragile democracy in Lebanon," he said.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 12:57:30 PM

Bernanke: Significant Consequences If Oil Rises Much More

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 12:55:15 PM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $62.61 -2.21% .... edges to new session lows. Some "re-think" going on here.

Tab Gilles : 7/20/2006 12:55:13 PM

No follow thru today, markets still subject to selling as geoplotical fears weigh in. Link

Keene Little : 7/20/2006 12:54:07 PM

If YM drops down to the bottom of its parallel down-channel (if that's what we have developing here) as 2:00 arrives, it could be the end of the pullback and I'd look to get long (should be right around the 11K area). Otherwise I'm watching to see if it continues to chop a little higher before another leg down. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 12:54:00 PM

Bernanke: Must Guard On Energy-Fueled Wage-Price Spiral

Tab Gilles : 7/20/2006 12:53:49 PM

Intel (INTC) Link

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 12:51:12 PM

Both Gold and Oil break overnight lows.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 12:46:57 PM

Bernanke: US Fiscal Situation 'Ought To Be Improved'

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 12:41:57 PM

This is not looking good for the bulls. However, ES and YM have so far been able to hold on their daily lows but with ER and NQ making new daily lows not sure how long they will be able to.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 12:36:06 PM

* Hedge fund industry now has $1.225 trillion in assets; second quarter saw biggest hedge inflows since at least 2003
* Hedge funds attract $42b in new money in second quarter

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 12:34:30 PM

ER's 61.80% retracement is at 693.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 12:33:46 PM

Needless to say both AD line and volume to new daily lows. AD line now at -802 remember the +802 earlier?

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 12:32:44 PM

If ES makes a new daily lows keep your eye on the VIX for new daily highs.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 12:31:46 PM

... next stop is previous day lows.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 12:31:09 PM

NQ and ER to new daily lows now.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 12:29:51 PM

Taking another look at the charts I see the ER is not really leading the way down becasue it is only at the 50% retracement of yesterday's gains whereas NQ is at 61.80%

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 12:29:33 PM

The all clear cannot be given for NQ until we close above 10 day ema, now at 1507. Support is 5 dma at 1485.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 12:26:27 PM

We will know more at 5:00 PM with GOOG and MSFT.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 12:25:30 PM

Swing trade short round to 3/4 position alert ... for The Street Tracks Gold (GLD) $62.71 -2.06% here, same stop, same target.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 12:28:27 PM

Maybe we will truly get a "rate hike is done" rally. Historically, they are very powerful rallies, but Bernanke has been so wishy washy, no one can get a handle and we have seen many starts fail. This time, however, we are starting from deeply oversold condtions with lots of pessimsim. Very different picture. If oil can't get a bid going for long, it will seal the deal for the FEDS and they will not raise in August. I know one would think they should consider an oil bid dangerous for the consumer, but they are thinking more about inflationary pressures, since the consumer has been still driving with higher oil. I think it is wrong, I think oil is the consumer killer, but I am not a Fed. In any case, a drop in oil gives the Feds an excuse to stop hikes and also gives a double support for the consumer: lower gas and lower rates. Thus, a rally.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 12:21:27 PM

ER is now leading the way down. NQ close on its heels.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 12:21:23 PM

Not getting any better for INTC covered calls with VIX 15.21 -1.99% and VXN.X 22.39 -1.92% (not to mention price action.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 12:19:46 PM

July 20 (Bloomberg) -- Manufacturing in the Philadelphia area expanded at a slower pace this month as costs increased and new orders slowed, a Federal Reserve survey showed today.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's general economic index fell to 6.0 in July from 13.1 in June. The gauge averaged 12.4 in 2005. Readings above zero signal expansion.

Businesses may be growing reluctant to step up production amid signs that consumer demand is cooling as interest rates rise. The report reinforces expectations of slower economic growth that may herald a pause in the Fed's series of interest- rate increases, economists said.

"Generally manufacturing is still expanding and contributing to economic growth, but some of the vigor is starting to shake out a bit," Michael Gregory, senior economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. in Toronto, said before the report. "Business caution is starting to rise, and that could eventually spread to capital spending."

The Philadelphia Fed's regional manufacturing index for July was expected to decline to 12, the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 55 economists. Estimates ranged from 5 to 19.5.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 12:19:54 PM

By the way folks, NVDA kicking in another +1.5% today and now trading above 20 dma. AT least no disapointment there. But keep in mind that this stock is very Vista dependent for growth, so MSFT will be key.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 12:18:10 PM

In fact, I will say that based on the YHOO reaction even with all those puts, I frankly don;t dare put out any recommendation ahead of earnings on any stocks. I will stick to the overall index.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 12:17:59 PM

GLD vs SLV RS Chart Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 12:16:42 PM

Well, I will temper that in saying the stock has put support from 380 up to 390, and not really enough at 400, so now I am sidelined on that one.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 12:17:00 PM

GOOG 200 dma is at 390. The stock took a hit on the YHOO news, but it really is not the same model. In fact YHOO was really sold because of the delay in its new search engine. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 12:14:15 PM

iShares Silver (SLV) $111.15 -0.21% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 12:11:47 PM

Philadelphia Fed (July) -

Business Index 6.0 June 13.1

Price Paid 50.3 Vs June 48.7

Price Received 17.1 Vs June 14.0

New Orders 10.1 Vs June 17.7

Employment 12.8 Vs June 6.8

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 12:10:25 PM

DAteline CNN Iranians were believed to be present at North Korea's July 4 missile tests, assistant Secretary of State Chris Hill, the chief U.S. negotiator with Pyongyang, testified today.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 12:10:08 PM

I think Otellini will do what he always does and make some annoucement a week after earnings. It will most likely be more cost cutting and lay-offs. That could get us high enough to get something out of AUG 20.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 12:08:38 PM

I thought about doing that yesterday, but for a 1/3 position, just not enough premium for the August $20's

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 12:07:27 PM

Yes Jeff, but I will be selling front month calls against it on bounces.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 12:06:48 PM

Expect MSFT and GOOG fear to kick in near the close. I am more worried about GOOG, as that one has plenty of downside risk.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 12:06:54 PM

So you're still hanging on to a 60-lot Marc?

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 12:04:00 PM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $63.04 -1.49% ... bold move back under WEEKLY S1.

With modest dollar weakness.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 12:03:45 PM

As for going in and out of the NQ trade, I would rather add to the position on pullbacks and build a nice position ahead of further gains.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 12:03:14 PM

Now Ym hits 11043 - just a tad late don't cha think.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 12:01:39 PM

I agree Jeff. I was going to bail, but several factors are keeping me in the INTC trade. One is put support going forward. Second, margins and the shipment and clean up of new chips and inventory. Third, Vista, which market players will front run before Q4 starts. And fourth, it will be heavily bought in Q4 as a dog of the Dow stock for 2007. Remember that even at 25, it will still be a dog of the DOW. Traders must realize though, that there could be a nasty move down to 17.15, to close that gap. MSFT will be key in the VISTA statement.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 11:57:15 AM

OIl and gold down once again. That correction is not over, gold needs to get back above 634 and fast.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 11:56:44 AM

AD line and volume are below 0 so bearish but VIX and TRIN are neutral. No clear direction which should not be surprising today.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 11:56:09 AM

The action in NQ is telling me we very likely put in a summer bottom. The key reason is COMP bouncing off 2003 high at 2015 and the oversold New lows. We should ge a continued chop higher all the way into Labor day weekend. NOt quite sure yet, but if we close above NQ 1500 and it holds, there is enough pessimism and wall of worry to get us much higher. I also think commodities are dying and fast money will rotate ahead of the cycle into techs.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 11:54:57 AM

Bulls are struggling but still holding on. -

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 11:57:14 AM

Intel (INTC) alert $17.61 -4.75% Link ... For my 1/3 bullish call (January expiration) position traders.

I'm going to hold this trade through Friday, then take a look at things early next week, but leaning toward the "dead money" and further downside risk.

Margin guidance suggests to me that the delayed Microsoft Vista release, if not delayed further, may not leave enough time for January expiration.

The lowering of gross margin guidance suggests the channel is getting "stuffed" and could be "crammed" by the time Vista does come to market.

Keene Little : 7/20/2006 11:41:40 AM

YM 10950 would be a 38% retracement of this week's rally. It's possible price will follow a parallel down-channel as shown on this chart: Link

Depending on how long the pullback lasts we could see it chop its way sideways as we head into the FOMC minutes at 2:00 today. From there a drop down to the bottom of the channel this afternoon would find support at yesterday's pullback at noon around 10982 (the previous 4th wave which is often a support level for the following pullback).

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 11:39:02 AM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $92.31 +0.75% Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 11:38:14 AM

Google (GOOG) $401.00 +0.50% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 11:37:26 AM

eBay (EBAY) $25.69 -0.92% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 11:36:11 AM

Yahoo! (YHOO) $25.71 +2.02% Link ... "searching for gains" after yesterday's drubbing.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 11:30:28 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1460, stop 1468, cancel sell to close.


Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 11:29:45 AM

The markets are showing great resilience even after 3 straight up days for NQ (this being the 4th).

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 11:28:52 AM

OIl drops. Even if Berryl turns into a hurricane it will have no effect on the rigs. We could see 70 oil before another leg up resumes there.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 11:25:33 AM

CBOT Holdings (BOT) $124.90 +8.12% Link ... almost pulled the bullish trigger on BOT again yesterday, but didn't!

Stock's a rock'n ... Earnings Report Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 11:20:56 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 11:10:33 AM

TRIN is now at 0.79 and testing its previous day highs. VIX is falling and the bulls have come back to life. The TICK fade also did not work out - another bullish indication.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 11:04:00 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link ... Adding September Crude Oil for roll.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 11:00:21 AM

Looking for 11043.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 10:59:29 AM

TICKS +1000 YM 11058. Today may be a good day for fades.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 10:58:21 AM

* NYSE volume 289.4m
* NYSE has 1,454 advancers
* NYSE has 1,283 decliners
* NYSE has 205 issues unchanged
* NYSE has 24 issues setting 52-week highs
* NYSE has 19 issues setting 52-week lows
* NASDAQ volume 447.5m
* NASDAQ has 1,096 gainers
* NASDAQ has 1,378 losers
* NASDAQ has 153 issues unchanged
* NASDAQ has 17 issues setting 52-week highs
* NASDAQ has 29 issues setting 52-week lows

Keene Little : 7/20/2006 10:57:14 AM

Looking at the current bounce, this 2nd leg up since this morning's low should do it and then we should get another drop lower. So scalpers should look to short this and then swingers can look to buy the dip after the next leg down finishes (I hope).

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 10:54:26 AM

Baker Hughes (BHI) $79.92 -1.78% Link ...

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 10:53:59 AM

AD line just made a new daily low but the bulls are putting up a gallant fight here.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 10:52:43 AM

ES and YM have both made a double bottom that does not look like they will hold. If the VIX breaks daily highs and ES breaks that double bottom that would be a great short.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 10:51:51 AM

Oil Service HOLDRs (OIH) $137.78 -2.15% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 10:50:37 AM

Weatherford CEO: Weak US Drilling Spots Will Be Offset

Weatherford CEO Sees No Major Drop In N. America Oilfield

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 10:50:22 AM

You know I would not be surprised to see NQ break through it PDL today - now that would be bearish for sure.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 10:49:23 AM

NQ is the first market to make a 61.80% retracement of yesterday's range. ER will be next (696)

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 10:48:46 AM

Bernanke: Real Wage Gains Consistent With Low Inflation

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 10:48:32 AM

Fed's Bernanke: Seeing Some Reduction In Demand For Oil

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 10:47:14 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1460, stop is lowered to 1468 for now. Sell to close stays at 1530.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 10:45:13 AM

Watch the VIX and if it makes a new daily high then you have the VIX confirming the bearishness seen in the ADs.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 10:44:34 AM

AD line to new daily lows and falling. AD line at -651 and the bears are getting stronger.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 10:43:38 AM

Bulls do not want to see ES make a fresh new low confirmed by VIX fresh new high. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 10:43:05 AM

QM has turned green on Storm Berryl news. Sept contract at 75.05. Remember that it hit 79.40 a few days ago.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 10:41:57 AM

INTC action is still very weak so we could ge a flush to 17.12, gap close.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 10:39:45 AM

Also noting 4 straight up days for NQ and I doubt we will get another one tomorrow. Nevertheless, the long was entered at a key low and I think it is worth holding out for at least QQQQ 37. I might even lower the stop back to even. There is +36 on the trade now, so take it if you are not feeling so jolly.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 10:39:05 AM

EIA Weekly Nat Gas Storage Table Link ... Build of 59 BCF

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 10:36:58 AM

If INTC rebounds, I will get my 1530 target.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 10:36:38 AM

17.50 strike is seeing continued put support for INTC all the way to January. In fact, there is some building at AUG 20. That is new.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 10:35:58 AM

The internals are all back to neutral - mostly.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 10:33:15 AM

Got it Jane, I was just looking at percentage winner.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 10:32:41 AM

DIA $110.07 +0.02%

SPY $125.87 +0.14%

QQQQ $36.47 -0.40%

IWM $69.29 -0.33%

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 10:30:57 AM

SMH 5 dma.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 10:30:25 AM

VXN down 2.6%

Keene Little : 7/20/2006 10:30:10 AM

Looks like we got the first leg down in a pullback so now we should get some kind of corrective bounce and then another leg down. Alternatively we'll chop sideways between this morning's high and low but typically we should expect a sharper pullback for this correction. That should then set up a good long play.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 10:29:59 AM

Alert: QM trade profiles will be September contract.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 10:29:17 AM

QU (gasoline futures) way down today still. This is all going to help the consumer.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 10:28:23 AM

Lehman Bros (LEH) $62.60 -0.87% Link ... Equities, but also a BIG bond shop.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 10:28:18 AM

Marc actually I see NQ as the weakest market based on the fibs.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 10:27:07 AM

I am switching to the Sept contract for QM the crude Oil emini.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 10:26:57 AM

NQ is the strongest market today.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 10:26:27 AM

July 20 (Bloomberg) -- An index of leading economic indicators rose in June for the first time in three months, boosted by higher consumer confidence and improvement in the labor market that will keep the economy from faltering.

The Conference Board's index increased 0.1 percent after decreasing 0.6 percent in May, the New York-based group said today. The gauge points to the direction of the economy over the next six months.

Today's report is in line with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's congressional testimony that "moderation in economic growth now seems to be underway." Stronger corporate investment in new equipment and plants is picking up some of the slack from slower consumer spending and waning home sales.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 10:25:41 AM

Morgan Stanley (MS) $63.77 -0.12% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 10:24:30 AM

Goldman Sachs (GS) $146.30 -0.40% Link ....

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 10:24:18 AM

Business Week is bullish on INTC and likes it here. There is a notbale absence of dwongrades today, so the stock might actually do as it did after-hours and find a base. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 10:23:33 AM

Merrill Lynch (MER) $69.82 +0.79% Link ... edges above yesterday's highs.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 10:21:17 AM

Consumer Disc. SPDRs (XLY) $31.82 -0.71% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 10:20:24 AM

Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) $22.84 -2.89% Link ... Reviewing Option Grants (Story) Link

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 10:18:39 AM

* U.s. economy is cooling: conference board
* Leading indicators down 0.3% in past 6 months
* June leading indicators rise 0.1% vs. 0.2% expected

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 10:18:19 AM

MSFT fear is coming now and today is a big test.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 10:17:02 AM

INTC needs to hold the lows here, as they are right at ex-trendline resistance from January, now support. There is a gap close at 17.12 and I would not be surprised to see it hit if it loses 17.50.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 10:15:29 AM

Lam Research (LRCX) $40.01 -11% Link ... Would be a break of long-term bullish trend.

Earnings (late yesterday) Link

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 10:14:18 AM

I think the bulls need to get their act together right about here.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 10:13:38 AM

So we have NQ leading the markets down, then ER and ES and YM remain the strongest or the least weakest (?)

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 10:12:27 AM

ER tags the 50% retracement at 699

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 10:11:58 AM

NQ slips past its 50% retracement but not yet to the 61.80%, which is at ~1491.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 10:10:47 AM

NQ long from 1460, stop 1470, stays open for now. Exit target is still 1530.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 10:10:17 AM

THE VIX is climbing but still within the lower quadrant of yesterday's range so I think it is still bullish. TRIN at 1.03 is neutral so these two are not supporting the bearishness I see in the AD line and volume.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 10:10:04 AM

Lam Research (LRCX) alert $39.77 -11.5% ... plunging!

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 10:08:28 AM

AD line is now -579 and of course volume well below 0. THe bears have grabbed those reins and are now in control. Watch your fib levels to see if they have reversed the bulls ride yesterday.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 10:06:50 AM

Intel (INTC) alert $17.50 -5.25% ... NQ-AW currently $1.55 x $1.60

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 10:05:36 AM

July 20 (Reuters) - UBS on Thursday lowered its target price on Intel Corp. to $22 from $23, but maintained its "buy" rating on the chipmaker's stock.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 10:04:51 AM

BTW INTC just slipped below the lower red trendline. I will not show the chart because... well you know why. This looks like a great stock to short.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/20/2006 10:04:08 AM

AAPL is holding up NQ, but INTC is a big disapointment.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 10:03:36 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 10:03:09 AM

I have put a fib retracement on yesterday's range and as you can see this little decline is nothing to worry about. If the markets get to the 61.80% retracement then you have something to worry about. Link

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 9:58:47 AM

AD line slips below 0 and now so does volume. Oooppss!

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 9:57:43 AM

The bulls are putting up a gallant fight but I see them losing slowly but surely.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 9:55:02 AM

VIX and TRIN are not comitting to anything and have printed in a very narrow range.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 9:54:23 AM

AD line back to +177 and AD volume falling so the bulls have lost the reins but the bears have not yet picked them up so the wagon has no one at the helm.

Jeff Bailey : 7/20/2006 9:52:51 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 9:51:02 AM

Even though it takes for fooorrrreeevvver to upload these charts I did want to show you a chart of INTC. Isn't it amazing how those trendlines keep coming into play? If you are long INTC I would be getting out of Dodge if this bottom trendline breaks, which will depend a great deal on what the market does. Link

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 9:43:19 AM

All markets but ES are now making new daily lows but I would not be selling this just yet.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 9:42:22 AM

TRIN is above its PDR but since yesterday was so bullish that is not bearish. VIX is in the bottom quadrant of its PDR and that is bullish.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 9:41:18 AM

AD line at +818 is looking a lot healthier now and I think the bulls are in control.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 9:33:45 AM

ER opens above its PDH, YM and ES right at their PDHs and NQ below.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 9:32:38 AM

VIX opens mid range to its PDR and TRIN above its PDR but I don't try to read the TRIN until the first 5 minute bar has completed.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 9:31:40 AM

AD line is +139 and AD volume above 0. No one has the reins so far.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 9:30:47 AM

This week so far I have lost my internet connection about 10 times. I am limping along but uploading charts takes me about 5 minutes so I will probably not be uploading many today. I will deal with this after the close and may have to buy a new router, the one I am currently using is about 6 years old.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 9:27:23 AM

I am still bearish on this market until I see NQ make a better showing. I think NQ is the key now and is the market to watch. NQ needs to break the resistance from the June 14th lows at 1528.50 and then retest those lows to ensure it has become support. The MACD divergences we are seeing are very encouraging that NQ can indeed do this. I will be standing aside until I get some kind of concurrance from all markets that the bulls have regained control. Link

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 9:18:21 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Dow Jones & Co. on Thursday reported a higher second-quarter profit, helped by increased advertising revenue generated by the U.S. edition of the Wall Street Journal and by Dow Jones Online.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 9:16:53 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Baxter International (BAX) said second-quarter earnings fell to $309 million, or 47 cents a share, from $324 million, or 51 cents a share, a year earlier

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 9:15:59 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Allstate Corp. (ALL) reported second-quarter results late Wednesday that beat analysts' estimates and raised its full-year profit forecast after a strong performance from its main auto insurance business.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 9:13:49 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Apple Computer Inc. jumped as much as 12% in premarket trades Thursday after the technology giant posted a 47.5% gain in fiscal third-quarter profit, boosted by sales of its iPod digital-media players and flagship Macintosh computers.

Apple (AAPL) shares surged in after-hours trading even though the company issued a fiscal fourth-quarter forecast that lagged Wall Street estimates.

The company also said it doesn't expect to have to restate any past financial results as part of an internal probe into stock options granted between 1997 and 2001.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 9:10:41 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Intel Corp. said late Wednesday second-quarter profit tumbled 57% from a year ago on lower sales as the world's largest chipmaker faced increased competition and cut prices to clear out excess inventory.

Intel, which is betting on a product overhaul and PC price cuts to stave off market losses to smaller rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc., also offered a weaker-than-expected sales forecast for the quarter ending in September.

For the three months ended July 1, the company reported a profit of $885 million, or 15 cents a share, which included 4 cents from expensing stock options. In last year's period, when Intel didn't include option costs in its results, the company earned $2 billion, or 33 cents a share.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 9:08:42 AM

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Profit growth at all three divisions helped Yum Brands Inc. push its second-quarter profit up 8%, the parent of KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell said Wednesday.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 9:03:22 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Among the companies whose shares are expected to see active trade in Thursday's session are Apple (AAPL), Allstate (ALL), Baxter (BAX), Dow Jones (DJ), Intel (INTC), Motorola (MO), Playboy (PLA), Rambus (RMBS) and Yum (YUM).

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 8:58:31 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Qualcomm Inc. on Wednesday said third-quarter profit climbed 15%, as demand for chips and phones based on the company's wireless technology soared yet again.

In the quarter ended June 25, Qualcomm (QCOM) said it earned $643 million, or 37 cents a share, compared with $560 million, or 33 cents, a year ago. Revenue climbed 44% to $1.95 billion from $1.36 billion

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 8:56:35 AM

Dateline WSJ Ford Motor Co. reported a net loss in the second quarter, due to the costs of shedding personnel as part of its restructuring plan, and as high gasoline prices sapped demand for its trucks and sport-utility vehicles. Revenue fell 5.8%.

The No. 2 U.S. auto maker posted a net loss of $123 million, or seven cents a share, compared with net income of $946 million, or 47 cents a share, recorded in the year-earlier period.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call on average expected Ford to post a profit of 12 cents a share in the second quarter, on revenue of $39.7 billion

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 8:55:04 AM

Dateline WSj WASHINGTON -- The number of idled U.S. workers applying for new unemployment benefits fell last week because of fewer claims related to the automobile industry.

Initial jobless claims decreased by 30,000 to a seasonally adjusted 304,000 in the week ending July 15, the Labor Department said Thursday.

A Labor Department statistician said the bulk of the drop was due to the auto industry, but didn't have a precise figure. Last week, claims were reported to have gone up more than expected because of annual temporary shutdowns by car makers preparing for the model-year changeover.

The median estimate of 17 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC had jobless claims falling by 17,000 the week ending July 15. The four-week moving average of new claims declined last week by 1,250 to 316,750.

Labor revised new claims for the week that ended July 8, up to 334,000 from a previously reported 332,000. The number of workers drawing unemployment benefits for more than a week increased in the week ending July 8, the latest week for which such data are available. These continuing jobless claims rose by 85,000 to 2,505,000.

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 8:46:52 AM

Oil was about as flat as it could get overnight and traded in a narrow band mid way to it PDR.

Gold was mostly neutral as well but traded in the uper quadrant of its PDR

Natural Gas was cooking with gas overnight and broke its PDH.

Tbonds have made a series of lower lows but is still within the upper quadrant of its PDR. Link

Jane Fox : 7/20/2006 8:38:37 AM

AFter the huge rally yesterday the best the bulls could hope for was the markets to retain all the gains which they all have done. Link

Keene Little : 7/20/2006 8:20:45 AM

Futures were unusually quiet overnight. Barely a ripple even after Europe opened. This could be telling us the kind of day we're going to have while the market digests yesterday's monster rally. All of them are at their highs for the overnight session with NQ up the strongest followed by ER. YM is the laggard.

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