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OI Technical Staff : 7/21/2006 9:59:59 PM

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Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 4:56:07 PM

Alert: The NVDA option trade is still open even though we hit after hours stop on underlying. The stop is now changed to the option price itself at 2.50.
Long NVDA Jan 17.5 calls at 3.50, stop 2.50.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 4:20:34 PM

I've got to be up in Cheyenne, WY to see my good buddy Steve Miller and his band. I'll update my play list, Market Watch and Internals this weekend.

NYT $21.98 -0.63% ...

GLD $61.71 -1.32%

GS $142.04 -1.92%

SPY $123.95 -0.70% and the SPY-TV $2.90 x $3.00.

Sold the INTC calls, will certainly revisit in the future. I believe in the Vista and new MS Office rollout will be the catalyst. Market not ready to make that move yet.

DELL $19.91 -9.90% Link ... did come back from session low of $18.95.

Some of these bearish vertical counts weigh on my bullishness near-term though. That's for sure!

Keene Little : 7/21/2006 4:18:13 PM

I returned just as the market closed to see that SPX hung marginally above the critical 1240 level. The trouble as I see it is that today's sideways move after dropping Thursday is that it looks like a consolidation before another leg down. A break much below today's low could usher in another round of selling on Monday so that's what we'll have to watch for. I hope everyone has a great weekend. See you Monday.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 4:12:26 PM

Well... it looks like both the CUH-SE and BDQ-SO plays go "poof".

Might have been "right" on CPKI as it is well below entry. Market sold that earnings gap up didn't it?

Dead wrong on BIDU, even under the selling presure NASDAQ has seen. YHOO debacle.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 4:09:30 PM

I'm sitting here looking at charts, stocks seem to be standing still and couldn't figure out why.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 4:08:35 PM

It's 04:00 already!

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 4:07:21 PM

Sunoco (SUN) $62.84 -3.09% Link ... has a reverse h/s bottom where right shoulder may be growning into the ear.

Here's the PnF Link ... leave this one along for now. Actually a decent low risk/high potential return with stop under $62.00 from the long side.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 4:03:23 PM

I had an upside al_rt set on BHI Link at $82.50 for a put play the last couple of days, to buy the Oct $80's. Might get a shot at September's next week.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 4:01:09 PM

MSFT and INTC supported the day...

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 3:58:44 PM

Wonder what Mrs. Cramer will be discussing this weekend?

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 3:58:17 PM

Oil Service HOLDRs (OIH) $130.10 -3.12% Link ... could see this coming, but didn't do anything about it.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 3:41:50 PM


DJ- Shares of the communications-chip maker fall 12.29% as the company sees lower-than-expected 3Q revenue. Broadcom also doesn't release 2Q bottom-line figures as a review of stock-options pricing continues.

BRCM $23.11 -12.29% Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 3:39:04 PM


DJ- Caterpillar earns $1.05 billion, or $1.52 a share, as revenue rises 13% to $10.6 billion. Analysts expected EPS of $1.42 on revenue of $9.96 billion. With backorders for large equipment at record highs, firm raises full-year outlook.

CAT $68.41 -1.01% Link

Tab Gilles : 7/21/2006 3:43:56 PM


Murphy Oil/ENPIX/$DJUSEN Back on6/23 6:02PM post I highlighted the $WTIC and the Descending Triangle. Entering MUR in the $47/$48 level...targeting $60. Having set 2 stops a)10-ma traing stop and $54 level. Both met giving about a 15% average return. $WTIC Link

ENPIX Profund Link

On 6/22 1:39AM I posted the ENPIX and UAPIX charts...like these 2 funds then. Reduce exposure to ENPIX and increase UAPIX now.

UAPIX Profund Small Cap Link

Nasdaq100 $NDX I believe that the risk/reward favors more upside and limited downside. Markets is very oversold. Link

Intel (INTC) Longterm weekly chart has INTC testing 80.9% Fbonacci Retracement. Link

Gold may be subject to a nearterm decline, those interested in shorting gold may look at the Profund SPPIX, instead of the inverse PMPIX. Link

Several other market breadth indicators. Link

$COMPQ Link Link Link Link

$SPX Link Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 3:33:37 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 3:23:54 PM

An August Gold Futures short, I'd cover at least 1 contract (if short 3) here, just in case something does ignite a rally over the weekend.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 3:21:55 PM

SPX NH/NL 14:44

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 3:20:19 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 3:15:45 PM


Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 3:11:09 PM

I am having horrible connection issues today so I am going to sign off for the day. Have a great weekend everyone.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 3:07:30 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 3:04:32 PM


DJ- Israeli troops and tanks mass on Lebanon's border and the army's chief of staff says the forces will conduct limited ground operations in Lebanon, if necessary. Secretary of State Rice will go to the Mideast Sunday without visiting Arab capitals.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 3:02:28 PM

For those still short from my 03/21/06 profile in AMD $35.24, might want to take some "chips off the table."

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 3:00:55 PM

If there's any "good news" for Intel (INTC) Link it is that AMD Link has exceeded it bearish vertical count.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 3:00:51 PM

I am DONE.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 3:00:35 PM


Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 2:59:54 PM

This is not good.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 2:59:14 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 2:58:00 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1462.50, stop 1460.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 2:54:39 PM

SOX still 385

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 2:53:34 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 2:38:51 PM

ES's new low at 12:55 that was not confirmed by a new high in the VIX has so far been today's low.

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 2:37:33 PM

I am still having connectivity issues so obviously I have not solved my problem.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 2:32:32 PM

Placing an order to sell the CUH-SE at the offer of $0.10 with CPKI $25.83 +0.15% ....

If they all get bought with stock up here (after session low of $25.08, what might a trader do to the stock?

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 2:20:14 PM

Stepping away. Let it fall wherever the chips may fall.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 2:19:04 PM

SOX bid

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 2:18:25 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1462.50, raise stop to 1461.50.

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 2:16:16 PM

AD volume approaching levels of yesterday. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 2:16:12 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1462.50, stop 1460.50.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 2:15:23 PM

SOX divergence.

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 2:12:52 PM

AD volume to new daily again so this little bit of bullishness is probably over.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 2:12:35 PM

S1 again!

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 2:12:22 PM

I feel like shorting it here, but they whacked me last time.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 2:11:42 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 2:11:12 PM

Bulls had their chance and it is not happening. Needs to now.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 2:04:40 PM

August Gold (gc06q) ... same retracement shown, now with WEEKLY Pivot levels turned on (5-minute intervals) Link

Both are very much "in play" aren't they? Yes they are.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 1:58:00 PM

All the big rallies the past year have been on the hope Feds are done. Now, there is actually real reason to think so, but so many have been burned, the wall of worry has grown to massive proportions. Latest Bull/Bear ratio reading -1.25. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 1:54:18 PM

I'm not saying we are at lows, but just to be mindful of the rate cycle. This is why I spend a lot of time looking for the kind of interview I posted earlier from the big guys.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 1:55:39 PM

Just remember that in 2002 when the market said no mas, there was no other reason than interest rates to start rallying. Everything else looked dismal. It is ALWAYS about rates at the end of the day.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 1:50:15 PM

If there are TWO bullish signs this week, it has been the BIX.X and the ability of PHF to stay above, oh... say $9.35.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 1:50:08 PM

QQV and VXN red

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 1:49:31 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1463, lower stop to 1462.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 1:49:20 PM

If we rally out of this mess, it will give bears serious concern.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 1:48:11 PM

Loads of stops above 1470.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 1:47:09 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1463, raise stop to even on remaining.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 1:46:55 PM

Take +5 partial now.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 1:46:28 PM

Now that everyone is falling down to where INTC fell (2001/2002/2003 levels all around)and INTC and MSFT green, you have to wonder if there is not some real bargain hunting, of the fund type, going on. After all, if Pimco is right and rates fall as a bond bull begins, money will find its way into techs.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 1:44:11 PM


Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 1:43:29 PM

You mean the "NASDAQ Market" right Marc? (01:36:29)

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 1:42:22 PM

I am still thinking upside resolution.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 1:41:20 PM

They will of course get my stop before running it up.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 1:41:16 PM

"Junk bonds" ... Yes, attractive YIELD relative to what you can get elsewhere, but an investor/trader takes on MORE RISK due to credit quality.

So ... the YIELD is easy to figure out why a trader/investor BUYS junk bonds.

When Junk Bonds get in trouble is when the ECONOMY SLOWS QUICKLY.

Poof! Business conditions deteriorate fast, suddenly, company's that issued the debt an higher coupons fall behind on interest payments.

What happens? The MARKET figures it out, and REGARDLESS of the nice 10%, 12% YIELD, they'll sell that debt faster than you can say QQQQ at $32.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 1:36:29 PM

Agree Jeff. INTC already took the hit this year and is showing some level of support today. The others are all catching up now, and that just comes to show that INTC is still the canary in the mine. When INTC missed in February, it was the time to get out of the market.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 1:36:50 PM

If Dr. Bernanke is as smart/effective as we now know (or I believe) Dr. Greenspan to be, "junk" and banks give a good read.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 1:35:17 PM

Keep an eye on those banks ....

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 1:35:02 PM

Keep an eye on the "junk bond" market.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 1:33:50 PM

That's ONE reason Marc (01:15:30) ...

But I've seen this before, during "bear markets."

It is the lesser of two evil trade.

EVERYONE KNOWS where Fed Funds are at, and it makes NO SENSE to buy 5.0% with a 10-year maturity, when you can get close to Fed Funds shorter-term.

Last night on CNBC, a "technology manager" was talking about buying MSFT, INTC and GOOG for the technology exposure.

Maria almost fell off her chair. Why would anyone buy those (gone nowhere, weak, out of favor).

His reply was very much the ... look, these are the bellwether names, and yes, they may continue to see price decline, but these are the stocks a tech investor should own.

It is open to interpretation, but that's how BIG MONEY thinks and acts. Yes... buy INTC, but short everything else in the group until the stock performs type of logic. If INTC falls, odds are high the rest of the chip sector is going to follow, or lead.

Keene Little : 7/21/2006 1:33:40 PM

I'll be leaving early today so at this point I'd say you want to be long above SPX 1240 and short below. That should keep it easy.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 1:33:27 PM

We are staying too long like this and this kind of dull market behavior at support usually gets a bid.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 1:32:54 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1463, stop 1461.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 1:32:33 PM

Upside resolution is now getting very likely.

Keene Little : 7/21/2006 1:28:36 PM

After dropping below the uptrend line from August 2004, and bumping its head on it before blasting back above it on Wednesday, SPX is now back down for what should be a test, at 1240. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 1:29:27 PM

What amazes me is that my long entry on Tuesday at 1460 still holds up. I know I'm out, but still, comes to show.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 1:27:23 PM

What amazes me about the stock market is it can be so "brutal" (up on a short and down on a long).

But the most amazing thing is how, why, when, there is a finite price discovery that eventually marks the top and the bottom.

Also amazing is the amount of effort and energy that some traders will expend in order to get both.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 1:26:33 PM

Note that for the first time in years, we have a 50% chance of a pause 2 weeks before a meeting. Since 2004/2005, it has always been 0% 2 weeks before.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 1:24:42 PM

Gross calls the bond bear market over for now.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 1:23:43 PM

In fact, Pimco says feds are done and will start lowering rates by year end we will see 4.75. 4.5% early in 2007. Wild, but it is the biggest bond fund in the world.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 1:23:21 PM

Good Gravy! ... SMH $29.07 -3.32% Link ... $29 could be a humdinger.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 1:21:02 PM

Wacth SOX 5%

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 1:20:30 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 1:20:12 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 1:19:15 PM

bear flaggish

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 1:17:04 PM

You have to copy and paste that link, it is a video for media player, so it won't post.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 1:16:08 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Lower stop to 1461.50.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 1:15:30 PM

Jeff, Pimco is bullish on bonds: mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vcDBjUWjx3u4.asf

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 1:12:24 PM


Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 1:13:02 PM

Look at that 10-year Yield low ... 5.006% ... At this point of Fed talk, I can't figure out who would be a buyer of that yield.

See if YOU have an answer .... One guy on CNBC last night probably said it best.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 1:12:14 PM

One thing I remember from the 2002 bear is that a SOX -5% or close rarely gets worse and it is dangerous to think so. That happened right in early 2003 and many piled on short.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 1:10:44 PM

It must be SOX 385 support.

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 1:09:56 PM

* Omnicell (OMCL) shares set 52-week high of $16.20 [
* Altria (MO) shares set 52-week high of $79.60
* Allegheny energy (AYE) shares set 52-week high of $39.30
* Broadcom (brcm) shares set 52-week low of $22.87
* Skyworks solutions' (SWKS) shares set 52-week low of $4.04
* Marvell tech (MRVL) shares set 52-week low of $33.77
* Xilinx (XLNX) shares set 52-week low of $19.96
* Foundry networks' (FDRY) shares set 52-week low of $9.09
* Texas instruments' (TXN) shares set 52-week low of $26.94
* National semi (NSM) shares set 52-week low of $20.90

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 1:08:19 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1464.50, stop 1462,

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 1:07:40 PM

Amazing how S1 is holding!!!

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 1:07:27 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 1:06:56 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Short 1464, stop 1465.50.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 1:05:17 PM

This is the first time in a long time I saw a big rally jump above weekly pivot early in the week not hit weekly R1, which was my exit target (1530). Came close, but no cigar. It's a shame, but that is the way it goes. Now, weekly s1 looks very possible (1443).

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 1:04:40 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 1:01:48 PM

Oracle (ORCL) Intra-day 2-minute chart with some Op-Ex action? Link

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 1:00:27 PM

Here is a stock that is bucking the trend. Look at how the 100 EMA has been support since Dec last year. I would not be long here but wait for another retest of support. That is if you feel you have to be long some stocks. Link

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 12:57:28 PM

ES is retreating after making a new daily low and has not had follow through.

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 12:56:21 PM

On the 5 minute chart ER has made a triple bottom at 671.2 - 671.5

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 12:56:10 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Lowered stop on NYT and CLOSED OUT the NQ-AW.

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 12:52:29 PM

ES did make a new daily low but the VIX is still not making a new daily high so I don't think it will have follow through.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 12:49:47 PM

I'm done and will pick it up Monday or Sunday night.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 12:47:14 PM


Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 12:47:07 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert -

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 12:45:03 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1465, stop 1462.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 12:43:32 PM

opex refuses to let this thing collapse.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 12:44:07 PM

Oh ... I misinterpreted your 02:09:54 note from yesterday.

MSFT $23.89 +4.55% ...

NVDA $17.93 -6.66% ...

Like you said though ... "tough day, tough week."

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 12:41:07 PM


Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 12:40:21 PM

VIX is telling me ES's daily lows will hold. Mind you though today os OPEX and the VIX is not as reliable as other days.

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 12:38:43 PM

Throwing the babies out with the bath water today Jeff.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 12:37:38 PM

Ok, NQ wants to test s1 again. Getting old.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 12:37:18 PM

That is the bet. But right now, 17.5 calls are trading at 3, entry was 3.5, so take it off now if you are not a believer.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 12:37:17 PM

All be darned Jane! Oil is in the red now.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 12:36:20 PM

Investors will come to realize that video cards and ram will benefit from these price wars.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 12:36:16 PM

I wonder what impact, if any, redemptions have on the various sectors (bull and bear) ProFunds offers. These 150% leveraged funds.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 12:34:39 PM

Support for NVDA is at 20 month MA and it remains a good long term play if that holds.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 12:35:25 PM

Jeff, even though I suggested taking a profit on NVDA pre MSFT, the official stop on Jan 17.5 call is still conditional underlying at 17.45. The trade is still open.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 12:33:53 PM

There .... feel a little more "balanced" now.

Not overly happy with Goldman Sachs' (GS) $142.80 -1.40% action at this point.

One technical we're fighting with is the 200-day SMA in the XBD.X

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 12:29:30 PM

Trying to get somebody to sell me another 3 SPY-TV is like pulling teeth.

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 12:26:50 PM

Here is the Gold futures but on a delay. As you can see the 100EMA is a little below the November trendline. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 12:26:24 PM

Here's the PMPIX Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 12:24:53 PM

I agree Jane (12:14:28) ...

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 12:24:34 PM

I think the best thing for Gold bugs is to monitor this market and a close below the November 2005 and 100 EMA would put me on the sidelines.

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 12:22:32 PM

Looking at the daily chart of Gold I see that the trendline from November 2005 and the 100EMA are still in tact so maybe I did a "rush to judgment" on gold longs. However, take a look at the MACD and tell me if you think you would still be long. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 12:21:11 PM

Profun Oil & Gas UltraSector (ENPIX) closed NAV $37.25 -3.07% yesterday.

Tab Gilles loves these funds.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 12:19:06 PM

Baker Hughes (BHI) $76.61 -1.28% ... Aaaarch! Was hoping for an OP-EX bid to hold it near $80 for a short/put.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 12:18:47 PM


Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 12:18:12 PM

It would suprise me if we don't hit weekly S1 at 1443 with all this bad news all week. I will regard that as bullish going forward.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 12:17:06 PM

Cheaper PC's and great deals might hurt DELL and HPQ bottom line, but it will help chips ahead of back to school. INTC should clear some inventory very quickly as consumers buy into these prices. DELL has done away with the mail-in rebates, you get it upfront. It's hurting them, but consumers will love it.

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 12:16:18 PM

That trendline that just broke was from June lows and breaking here is a big deal.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 12:15:31 PM

Hey ... Nice exit on NVDA $17.96 -6.50% yesterday Marc!

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 12:15:22 PM

Use this chart instead. Link

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 12:14:28 PM

I would be out of Gold longs now. I sure am. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 12:14:07 PM

It has been a tough long for months hasn't it?

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 12:13:50 PM

It's amazing we have not hit Monday lows.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 12:12:55 PM

I knew I was not supposed to trade this.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 12:12:40 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 12:12:22 PM

MM Profiles alert ... For StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $61.30 ... If we get the trade at target of $60.00, lets just sell the 1/2 position. Hold the other 1/4 we shorted yesterday.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 12:04:12 PM

Profund Precious Metals (PMPIX) closed NAV $43.25 -6.66% yesterday. Potential H/S top pattern developing there.

Tab Gilles knows more about these funds than I do.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 11:59:04 AM

iShares Silver (SLV) $108.37 -0.57% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 11:58:16 AM

StreeTracks Gold (GLD) $61.78 -1.21% ..

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 11:56:50 AM

Let's see them get us back in the gap.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 11:56:39 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1469, stop 1465.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 11:54:59 AM

I hope they whack some of those hedge fund crooks. Good.

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 11:54:10 AM

My Gold long is not looking good right now. The only saving grace is that I got a very good entry.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 11:53:09 AM

No way.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 11:52:49 AM


Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 11:51:25 AM

* NYSE volume 743.3m
* NYSE has 958 advancers
* NYSE has 2,035 decliners
* NYSE has 136 issues unchanged
* NYSE has 41 issues setting 52-week highs
* NYSE has 85 issues setting 52-week lows
* NASDAQ volume 974.3m
* NASDAQ has 762 gainers
* NASDAQ has 1,965 losers
* NASDAQ has 119 issues unchanged
* NASDAQ has 12 issues setting 52-week highs
* NASDAQ has 153 issues setting 52-week lows

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 11:49:24 AM

Should have stayed in.

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 11:48:50 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (TTWO) on Friday said that it has reached a final resolution with the Federal Trade Commission, settling all outstanding matters pending before the agency regarding the advertising claims for "Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas." No penalties or fines with assessed in connection with the settlement. The FTC unanimously approved the consent order and agreement with Take-Two and its publishing label, Rockstar Games, the company said. As a part of the settlement, Take-Two is implementing a system to ensure that game content is reviewed in connection with submissions to ratings authorities, and shall not misrepresent a game's ratings or content. If it violates the agreement, the company must pay $11,000 per violation.

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 11:47:32 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Securities and Exchange Commission has asked to interview Morgan Stanley (MS) Chief Executive John Mack as part of its probe into possible insider trading at a hedge fund. Mack was alleged by a former SEC investigator to have possibly tipped Pequot Capital Management to a pending deal. "John immediately responded that he is happy to meet with the commission staff, and he welcomes the opportunity to put to rest any issues surrounding this matter," Morgan Stanley said in a statement. Shares of Morgan Stanley fell 1.3% at midday.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 11:47:20 AM

Should be filled at $1.45 (I was)

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 11:46:35 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The fed funds futures market now suggests it is unlikely that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in August. The August contract was last up 0.03 at 94.69, implying a 32% chance that the Fed will raise its target on overnight rates to 5.50% from 5.25% following its policy setting meeting on Aug. 8. Fed funds futures were pricing in a 49% change of a rate hike late Thursday, and a 65% chance of a hike on Wednesday.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 11:44:46 AM

Swing trade exit call alert ... Let's sell the two (2) Intel INTC Jan $17.50 Calls (NQ-AW) at the bid of $1.45.

INTC $17.25

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 11:44:22 AM

Stepping away. I will take this up later.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 11:43:38 AM

Let's dump them ...

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 11:43:28 AM

Flush coming or a very boring lunch.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 11:43:11 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 11:42:31 AM

Not sure what to do with the INTC position. Either dump it as "dead money" for next three months and move on. Or hang out, but sell an Aug $17.50 for $0.45.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 11:40:16 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1466, stop 1462.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 11:40:02 AM

So far, bulls are holding above it

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 11:39:48 AM

Looks like another test of s1?

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 11:39:33 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 11:38:57 AM

We are coiling.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 11:38:48 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1466, stop 1462.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 11:33:53 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 11:31:00 AM

trap or not

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 11:30:50 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1467, stop 1462.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 11:28:29 AM

SPX NH/NL 12:41

Yesterday's tally 20:18

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 11:27:26 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 7/21/2006 11:26:32 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) -Stopped @ $54 Link As per 7/11/06 10:49 AM post, 2nd 1/2 position stopped out at $54.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 11:21:56 AM

Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) alert ... $11.05 +6.48% ... had and alert set here ... stock suddenly active.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 11:19:41 AM

These next 10 mns are often trap, so be patient.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 11:19:06 AM

GOOG holds on to 385, but is still trading below 200 dma.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 11:18:05 AM

GLD $62.12 ... overnight low for August Gold was $620.90

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 11:13:33 AM

DELL October 2001 lows is 17.75. 200 weekly MA is 17.27. I think if the stock ever gets there, buy it big time for 2007.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 11:11:21 AM

Don (alert) ... might try selling your long, stop on your calls just above day's high, then see if they can't pin ORCL back to $15.00

ORCL $15.12 ... day's high $15.22

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 11:09:14 AM

Beware of the pre-lunch boogeyman.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 11:08:35 AM


Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 11:07:10 AM

1470 drops and I take some off.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 11:06:59 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 11:06:29 AM

Oil up, or down?

Keene Little : 7/21/2006 11:06:19 AM

If ES can hold above 1250 right now as it consolidates and then push higher again that will give us a clean 5-wave move up from the low. I'd look to get long a pullback after that. If it drops back below 1250 it will leave a 3-wave bounce and then I'd wait for a new low.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 11:06:18 AM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $62.51 -0.04% ... slips red.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 11:05:32 AM

If I don;t see HPQ get out of this, then I know it is not only DELL.

Keene Little : 7/21/2006 11:03:38 AM

If we get another minor new low and you see some short term bullish divergences, buy it. I'm watching this bounce to see if it turns into a small impulsive climb off the bottom since that could signal the low is in. But a minor new low with divergences would be a good setup, especially if SPX is holding around 1239.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 11:03:00 AM

They will close it at QQQQ 36.01? Would not be surprised.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 11:02:59 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 11:02:07 AM

Pre-lunch coming and now the trend comes back, so please feel free to take some profits. I am hoping 1470 holds.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 11:00:45 AM

Gap open is 1470 and bulls are trying to stay in it.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 10:59:23 AM

SPY "July Max Pain Theory" $125.00 .... One thing I like to do and it isn't one of those "Oh my gosh, it closed above/below Max Pain" ... is to think of a close above $125.00 as "the markets wants the stock" or a below $125.00 as "the markets don't want the stock"

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:59:17 AM

Now the counter-trend opening reversal usually dies and it is a good place to go short, but I am sticking with it for now just because it is opex.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:57:53 AM

Nice comeback for the COMP.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:56:50 AM

Support is now 1470.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:56:43 AM

But feel free to do just that, cash it in.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:57:28 AM

Trade is +11. That is the bread an butter play. Normally I take it and go surfing. But we are at major lows and maybe I will hold this one.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:55:39 AM

But it is really hard to type and trade.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:55:16 AM

I used to make a living on the opening reversal, and it all about ticks.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:53:09 AM

In the gap.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:53:04 AM

Remember, if it's obvious, it's obviously wrong. We have 2.5 months are constant selling and bad news could be treated very differently at some point.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 10:52:42 AM

In last night's session, it sure looked like I was going to wake up this morning with August Gold under $630.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:52:05 AM

OIl drops.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:51:44 AM

TRINNQ remaisn a bullish .68 while AD line is -1500. In other words, a few big cap stocks are holding up.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:50:43 AM

Everyone is sick of it.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:50:21 AM

Seller exhaustion.

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 10:50:19 AM

NQ's lows on July 18th were 1457.75 and today lows were 1460 making a double bottom. This market is really oversold now and needs to relive some of it. I like a bounce back to June 14th lows at 1528.50 for a short but may only get a retracement to the Wednesday's highs at 1510.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 10:49:48 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link ...

Keene Little : 7/21/2006 10:48:21 AM

The bottom of the weekly ascending wedge (trend line from August 2004) is also at SPX 1239. I'd definitely try a long play there.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:46:42 AM

SPX 5 dma.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 10:44:33 AM

SPY $124.50 -0.25% ... after kiss of WEEKLY Pivot.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:44:23 AM

Opex refused to letthings get away, but the gap is a struggle and might only bring in more sellers.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 10:41:00 AM

Bearish swing trade short lower stop alert ... on The New York Times (NYT) $21.98 -0.63% ... to $22.30

Keene Little : 7/21/2006 10:40:29 AM

SPX retraces 62% of Wednesday's rally at 1239.06. I'd consider a long from there if we're getting some short term buy signals. I don't like betting on the downside here because of the sharp impulsive rally on Wednesday. Unless that rally was finishing an exagerrated expanded flat correction (as wave-C up), that should be followed by another rally leg. I think this decline is a head fake move to shake out the bulls and pull in the bears. It should reverse back up. A drop below 1230 will have me thinking otherwise.

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 10:40:05 AM

These TICK fades don't have a great track record and this one today should work out well but you never know.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:40:01 AM

C'mon, let;s nail some stops in the gap.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:39:42 AM

yep, we stall at gap open.

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 10:39:22 AM

Opps TICKs reach the danger zone at +1000. benchmark YM at 10932.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:39:06 AM


Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:38:59 AM

+7 partial

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:38:47 AM

Here she comes. Watch 1470.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:38:32 AM

Shorts are not getting traction and they should start covering.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:38:09 AM

1st hour reversal indeed. Started at 10:35.

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 10:38:06 AM

TICKS once again hit +800 and on the 1 minute chart I see YM has made a higher high. Not much but at least some bullishness.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:37:28 AM

COMP holding 2015 is a great accomlishment. Now we wait. +819

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:36:43 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1462.50, raise stop to even.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:35:56 AM

Someone wants a floor and is sure trying hard. Opex.

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 10:34:48 AM

TRIN is now supporting the bearishness and testing its PDH. VIX is already above its PDH.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:34:10 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1462.50, stop 1459.

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 10:33:38 AM

BTW the reason for that nice jump in GAP was WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Co. (GAP) reported a net loss of $6.1 million, or 15 cents a share, for the first quarter ended June 17, narrower than the prior year's loss of $89.2 million, or $2.28 a share

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:31:28 AM

Price moving ahead of ticks on the downside, that's it

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 10:31:19 AM

Now this is a pretty little chart. Look at all those bullish MACD divergences and once the downward trendline breaks it would have been a nice long. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:31:02 AM

Bad news.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:30:34 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:30:13 AM

Ticks are climbing but price is stalled. We try again.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:29:55 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1464, stop 1461.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:29:03 AM

Let's see what happens now as ticks go negative, Looks diverging though

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:28:40 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:28:26 AM

as lows

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:28:18 AM

COMP holds 2003 highs.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:26:28 AM

I'm not sure it will work.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:26:12 AM

Price moving against ticks now, but they stay positive. Someone wanys a floor.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:25:12 AM

QM 75. Always a problem.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:24:37 AM

INTC green.

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 10:24:11 AM

I put a lot less emphasis on the VIX on OPEX Fridays but today it seems to be working OK. Link

Keene Little : 7/21/2006 10:23:51 AM

It's certainly beginning to look like a one-day-wonder rally on Wednesday. But all is not lost until SPX and the DOW give up Tuesday's low (although NDX and RUT may give us a heads up in that regard). My charts have fallen way behind so I'm not sure where we are at the moment but I sure don't like this hard drop. However, any summer rally that we get will be very choppy and full of whipsaws. Today's price action could be just part of that. It's the reason I said trading a summer rally will not be easy.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:23:49 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1462.50, raise stop to even on remaining.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:23:25 AM

+4 partial

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:22:05 AM

Is the tick drop minor from ighs? What isprice doing? YOu see how we are building tick pressure against bears here?

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 10:21:37 AM

TICKS hit +800 and we may have found a temporary bottom but I would not be putting any money on it.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:21:27 AM

The only thing to watch when shooting for opening reversals are ticks. Look for divergences, pressure, etc..

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:20:50 AM


Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:20:40 AM


Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:20:31 AM

Shorts are trying hard

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 10:20:05 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Higher crude oil prices and disappointing second-quarter earnings from Halliburton (HAL) sent energy stocks in two directions at the open Friday. The Amex Oil Index ($XOI) rose 0.4% to 1,147 points as the September crude contract hit $74.65 a barrel. The Amex Natural Gas Index ($XNG) was up 0.4% at 410.6 points, helped by a bullish U.S. natural gas inventory report Thursday. But the Philadelphia Oil Service Index ($OSX) was smarting, down 1.5% at 188.5 points, extending the previous session's sharp losses as Halliburton missed Wall Street earnings forecasts by a penny a share.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:19:15 AM

1st hour reversal here?

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:18:27 AM

Ok, we hold s1.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 10:18:24 AM

Swing trade put option alert ... for two (2) of the SPY Aug $226 Puts (SPY-TV) at the offer of $2.90

SPY $124.11 here

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:18:18 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1462.50, stop 1459.50.

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 10:17:52 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- September crude climbed 58 cents to $74.58 a barrel in early dealings on the New York Mercantile Exchange. "Shorts may want to cover going into the weekend, where the possibility exists that the Israeli/Hezbollah conflict could take a turn for the worse," Ed Meir, an analyst at Man Financial, said in a research note. August natural gas fell 19.1 cents to $5.90 per million British thermal units, after climbing nearly 10% in the past two sessions.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:17:16 AM

Almost an hour and not even one serious counter trend reversal.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:16:54 AM

Here come some buyers.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:16:45 AM

GOOG loses it.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:14:58 AM

I am going to scalp those ticks until I get an entry for what will be a better bounce at some point.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:14:25 AM

Test of Monday lows coming

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:14:10 AM

We should move down to 1442/1448 area

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:13:48 AM

COMP holds. Jeez.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:13:09 AM

they are going to hit us with the hard stuff early on.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:12:38 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:12:26 AM

no more

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:12:21 AM

Watch how ticks stay green as we moved down.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:11:47 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Lower stop to 1462.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:10:04 AM


Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:09:38 AM

Ok, this time is it, or we will see new lows.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:09:25 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1465, stop 1463.

Jeff Bailey : 7/21/2006 10:09:19 AM

10:06 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:08:51 AM


Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:08:35 AM

This is gettingold.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:08:25 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:06:55 AM

Multitude of tick divergences, so I keep trying.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:06:41 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1465, stop 1462.50

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:04:56 AM

I knew this would be tough.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:04:45 AM


Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:04:35 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:03:40 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1464.75, raise stop to 1464.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:03:14 AM

Ticks positive and we hit -700

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:03:04 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1464.75, stop 1462

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:02:31 AM

Failed bce attempt so far.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:02:19 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:01:06 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1464, stop 1462.

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 10:00:25 AM

This is not an environment in which I would be long. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:00:24 AM

Waiting for a tick divergence.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 10:00:11 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 9:59:11 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1466, stop 1464.

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 9:58:50 AM

The TRIN is really weird today. It started out bullish below its PDL then shot up back to its PDR, then back another shot up to 1.3 and is now back to 0.92.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 9:58:40 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 9:57:06 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Raise stop to 1463.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 9:55:54 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1465, stop 1462.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 9:55:09 AM

TRINNQ is strangely bullish and so is the TRIN.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 9:54:37 AM

Keep a close ye on COMP 20015 and further down 2005.

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 9:53:57 AM

Can anyone play TAPS?

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 9:53:55 AM

Persoannly, I will wait for another day to trade, as Friday opex can be deadly either way.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 9:53:22 AM

Weekly S1 is at 1443 an dthere is a real chance we hit it.

Keene Little : 7/21/2006 9:52:30 AM

The drop back down is not at all encouraging for the bulls. This early drop after just another 3-wave bounce looks bearish. Now we'll have to see if the 38% retracement at 10950 holds.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 9:52:11 AM

Gap open is at 1470 we did not even make it there.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 9:51:29 AM

DOn;t tell me I bailed at the excat lows.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 9:51:16 AM

This is a short the rallies day, although they wil try their best to get Q above 36.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 9:50:44 AM

This means market lows for the year will be made this quarter.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 9:49:43 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 9:43:57 AM

I'm glad i moved my stop down to 1460, but I must say, to have not cashed in when the trade was +47 was a mistake. OPex rules are not applying at this point, in fact all those puts are acting like in May and forcing volatility sellers to cover.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 9:41:46 AM

GOOG Must hold on to 385, 23.6% 2004/2006 and trendline.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 9:41:09 AM

If it wasn't fror MSFT and AMGN, we would have already seen new lows.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 9:40:14 AM

I wonder how opex wil cope with this.

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 9:39:57 AM

INTC's yearly lows at 16.75 adn INTC is now at 16.95.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 9:38:50 AM

Nevertheless, NQ hits S1 and we will see what happens now, but the picture is very ugly.

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 9:38:45 AM

ES and YM's PDLs are holding on so far.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 9:38:06 AM

Bernanke got his slowdown...

Marc Eckelberry : 7/21/2006 9:37:41 AM

DELLL warns and the pary is over. Over.

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 9:37:21 AM

VIX climbing as well and both AD line and volume are falling. Bears got a little scare there but they are OK now. Mind you though keep your eye on the tricky TRIN because it is not confirming this bearishness.

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 9:36:03 AM

TRIN climbing back into its PDR.

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 9:35:34 AM

Vix is above its PDH but TRIN is below its PDL at 0.56. I would be careful if short. HEck I would be careful if long.

Keene Little : 7/21/2006 9:35:28 AM

YM ran right up to the top of its down-channel, the downtrend line from yesterday morning's high, at 11026. So a brief pullback here followed by a rally up through it would obviously be bullish. The next opportunity to get long would be a pullback to the downtrend line as it tests it for support (hopefully).

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 9:34:13 AM

AD line is -369 but AD volume is above 0. HMMMM

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 9:33:36 AM

ER and NQ open with a break of their PDLs. I don't think ES and YM are too far behind. I don't think this is going to be a good day for the bulls.

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 9:32:16 AM

This chart looks more like ES than YM but the most noticeable difference is the MACD. The potential cross didn't even turn into a kiss. Link

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 9:29:06 AM

Everything I said about YM can be said about ES except the 50EMA has crossed the 100EMA and the 200EMA and the 100 is a lot closer to crossing the 200 than on the YM chart. Also the MACD has not yet confirmed the divergence because it has not yeeettttt crossed. Anymore downside and that potential cross will turn into a kiss good bye. Link

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 9:20:55 AM

Looking at the chart of YM in isolation I have to say it is still bullish based on the double bottom with a very nice MACD divergence. Of course you have to take into consideration that price is below all major MAs even the most volatile, the 20EMA, but has not been below long enough for the 100 to cross the 200. The last time the 100 was below the 200 was November 2005. Notice the Gold 50EMA has crossed the 100 but not yet the 200 so all in all this market is still doing OK, not great but OK. Link

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 9:11:30 AM

BTW on my last chart of gold, notice when gold got too far away from the trendline the MACD gave you a bearish divergence which brought this metal back to support. Gold may be volatile but it is like the bonds and adheres to technicals better than most.

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 9:08:40 AM

Here is why I took a long position in Gold last night. The trendline from the June 14 lows has been very nice support and I was playing the probability that it would again last night. I placed my stop just under the low of the 2nd blue arrow. The news wires are saying gold is advancing because of the situation in Lebanon but say it is because it hit support. Link

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 9:02:40 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures rose early Friday, as speculation that Israel's planning a ground invasion of Lebanon refueled safe-haven demand for the precious metal. Gold for August delivery was last up $1.50 at $634 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Other metals prices were mixed. Silver added 17.5 cents to stand at $11.24 an ounce, while copper gained 3.05 cents at $3.44 a pound and palladium rose 0.5 cent at $312.05 an ounce. Platinum dropped $1.30 at $1,225 an ounce.

Trading in metals has been very volatile lately, marked by big price swings in both directions

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 9:01:35 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - Shares of Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) fell in pre-market action on Friday after the company reported second-quarter profit rose from a year ago, before it divested its unprofitable memory-chip business, but its results lagged expectations amid lower prices for personal-computer chips.

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 8:58:22 AM

Dateline WSJ Dell Inc. said it expects revenue and earnings per share in the second quarter to come in lower than forecast, amid aggressive pricing in a slowing market world-wide. Shares of Dell fell about 11% in premarket trading. (and me without a put :()

Ahead of its Aug. 17 report date, the No. 1 computer maker said Friday that it expects second-quarter fiscal revenue to be about $14 billion with earnings per share of about 21 cents to 23 cents, below the average analyst estimate compiled by Thomson First Call of revenue of $14.23 billion and earnings per share of 32 cents.

The stock tumbled $2.60 to $19.50 in premarket trading on Inet. It was the most heavily traded issue on the exchange after the announcement.

Keene Little : 7/21/2006 8:57:55 AM

Continuing from where we left off yesterday at the close, getting long at YM 10970 was a good spot. If you're long from there, keep your stop just below yesterday afternoon's low of 10963. Getting long from here could be a little trickier. If we get a quick drop back down to test the pre-market low of 10975 that would be a good place to try it since your stop can be kept nice and tight. Downside risk from here is to the 38% retracement at 10950. Link

The bulls need to show up today. If the market continues to pullback further the pattern is set up for an acceleration lower and if that happens I think the one-day-wonder rally will be history. If at any time the market drops back below Tuesday's low you'll want to be short in a big way. But so far I like the setup for a long play, especially keeping your stop tight.

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 8:56:44 AM

I took a long in gold overnight and came very close to been stopped out but fortunately the trading Gods were smiling down upon me and I survived. Gold is one volatile little puppy. Anyway as you can see it broke its PDL down then broke back up again.

Oil - gee the Gold and Oil charts sure look a lot alike. I have noticed that this happens sometimes. HMMM

Tbonds were pretty neutral yesterday and traded mostly in the upper quadrant of their PDR.

Natural Gas bounced around with no real direction one way or the other. We are into hurricane season and you should see this market take some bigger swings. I have never watched Nat Gas before so it should be interesting to see how it fares in the next few months. Link

Jane Fox : 7/21/2006 8:48:40 AM

'morn all. Well the bears have once again proved that they have control of the markets and once again NQ is leading us down. Overnight NQ broke its previous day lows, albeit not by much. However, the fact that it did at all after losing everything yesterday that it gained on Wednesday is bearish. Yesterday morning I stated that although we had a monster rally on Wednesday I was still bearish until I saw NQ break resistance. NQ never came close to breaking that resistance and has shown us all which camp is in control. Link

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