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Keene Little : 7/24/2006 11:38:33 PM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 10:49:08 PM

YM Pivot Matrix for Tuesday at this Link

YM 30-minute interval chart Link

OI Technical Staff : 7/24/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 9:42:33 PM

Index Pivot Matrix for Tuesday at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 9:09:57 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Today's Activity


Swing trade close out the 1/2 position short in the StreetTracks Gold (GLD) at $60.28 ($+3.82/share, or +5.96%)

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 8:52:53 PM

SPX NH/NL finishes 24:10

07/19/06 NH/NL was 15:6

07/20/06 NH/NL was 20:18

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 7:46:09 PM

Citigroup raised DELL to buy.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 5:28:02 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Go long at 1495.50, stop 1492.50.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 5:24:33 PM

TXN rocks. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 4:42:42 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 4:42:13 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 4:22:40 PM

Economic Reports for tomorrow include:

10a.m. June Existing Home Sales. Previous: -1.2%.

10a.m. July Conf. Board Consumer Confidence Index. Consensus: 104. Previous: 105.7.

10a.m. July Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Previous: 4.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 4:06:37 PM

And there goes NQ, closing above 10 dma? YM solid above 29 dma as is ES. This is a new ballgame.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 4:24:16 PM

Day Trade Recap
NQ +39.50 ($790 per contract).

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 4:02:06 PM

Closing the trade and flat overnight. What a day.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 4:01:51 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 3:59:50 PM

Watch YM 11074

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 3:53:00 PM

All eyes on ES 1269, 50 dma.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 3:50:57 PM

NQ is still the weakest link stalling at 10 dma.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 3:47:02 PM

ES has not traded above 50 dma since early May.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 3:46:15 PM

ES hits the 50 dma. That might be the stall (1269).

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 3:44:50 PM

This Fiber Optic connection is blazing fast. Jeez, that is what we were hustling in the late 90's in stocks. Amazingly fast.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 3:43:58 PM

Now NQ needs to get above 10 day ema at 1493. The lggard.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 3:43:41 PM

Same with ES and 1264. This is a new ballgame, folks, it's not price relative, it is moving average relative.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 3:42:51 PM

If YM closes above 11074, it wil be the first tinme in 9 trading days we close above 20 dma. I would stay long above.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 3:34:12 PM

I'll updated today's MM Profile activity after tonight's Market Wrap.

See you later this evening!

Keene Little : 7/24/2006 3:33:28 PM

Assuming we get another pullback from this 1269 area, which would be a good scalp play to the short side, I'd buy a pullback that finds support at the first broken trend line as seen on this chart. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 3:32:38 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Keene Little : 7/24/2006 3:31:03 PM

We got a nice shot to the upside out of that bull flag and now ES has reached its next downtrend line just under 1269 now. This is where we could see another pullback into tomorrow that reaches back down to the 1260 area before heading higher again.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 3:26:53 PM

Brazil's Central Bank Buys Dollars at BRL2.190

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 3:24:18 PM

Norway Oil Service Strike Parties Reach Agreement - Union

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 3:23:39 PM

I would be seriously considering a YM short here because it is up against some major resistance and your stop could be quite close.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 3:14:31 PM

The 200 EMA is is also at 11108.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 3:14:06 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 3:13:42 PM

YM is now approaching the May 24th lows at 11105. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 3:04:06 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 2:53:29 PM

Look at how that November 2005 trendline is been support. Did I bail on my gold too early?? Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 2:50:00 PM

Mmm. COMP chart with a very interesting possibility shaping up: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 2:47:16 PM

The DOW has faced constant pressure at 20 dma (11008) and a close above signals a big change.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 2:46:29 PM

DOW holds 11k. Full circle after all that post rally angst last week.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 2:41:50 PM

American Express (AXP) $49.92 -1.38% ... probes WEEKLY S1 ($49.89).

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 2:37:27 PM

There is a very good chance (probability) the bull flag will confirm. Link

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 2:35:54 PM

Here is how the fibs look on the four markets. Link

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 2:34:25 PM

And just as I said that the bull flag is starting to confirm... well maybe.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 2:33:45 PM

Jane, that is just to sucker in more shorts... :)

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 2:33:02 PM

Keene I agree that the pullback has a bull flag look but the bulls need to get it together because it is taking just a tad too long to complete.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 2:32:58 PM

Sure glad I put in that order at R1 (1478.50) after exiting at 1484, Clean day to trade the long side.

Keene Little : 7/24/2006 2:30:28 PM

The pullback from this morning's high has that "sideways/down" look and therefore looks more bull flaggish than anything else. It's consolidating underneath the downtrend line from July 11th and should continue higher once this is finished. I'd be looking to buy this dip. Now if we only knew where and when the dip is going to finish. The bottom of the flag is down at the 38% retracement of today's rally a little later this afternoon, at 1257.75. I don't know if we'll get there but I'd certainly try buying it there if we do. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 2:27:00 PM

I might get offline at any moment. Verizon is installing Fiber Optics in my home (we are very lucky in Malibu and Topanga, the big test sites for this blazing fast technology). I have to say, Verizon is a big threat to cable.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 2:23:40 PM

5 dma support at 1479, r1 at 1478.25.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 2:23:27 PM

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Nearly a year after a record hurricane season devastated the Gulf Coast, Allstate Corp. (ALL) is considering dropping hail and wind damage coverage for coastal homeowners in Louisiana.

On Friday, Louisiana's top insurance regulator threatened legal action against the Northbrook, Ill., insurer, saying such an action would violate the state's consumer protection statute.

In a Friday press release, Louisiana Commissioner of Insurance Jim Donelon said he is preparing to take legal action against Allstate if the company follows through on a threat he says the state received from the company: "Either ignore the state's consumer protection statute and allow the company to exclude wind and hail coverage on policies in 18 parishes, or the company will totally withdraw from the Louisiana homeowners market."

A spokeswoman for Donelon said Monday she did not know what type of legal action was contemplated.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 2:22:49 PM

This is usually where bears take over and kill bullish sentiment. Will it happen again today? Keep your stops tight, a break below 1475 sets up a retest of 1469.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 2:20:25 PM


DJ- Wal-Mart Stores hires Leslie Dach, vice chair of Edelman public relations and architect of its stepped-up strategy to combat critics, to a new post as executive vice president of government relations and corporate relations.

WMT $44.44 +1.64% Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 2:20:15 PM

A major victory for bulls would be an NQ/QQQQ close above 10 day ema, the first in July. We are not that far away (1493/36.43).

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 2:15:33 PM

If an options trader wanted to invest only in swingtrades of indices and only in sharply oversold or overbought conditions (the type of situation that might arise 1 or 2 times a month at most), what would be the most important criteria, indicators or conditions that you would consider for this type of trade in which you felt you had a favorable risk/reward? Would really appreciate your reply, Thanks, Silvio

Silvio thanks for the email. Oversold and overbot is never an exact science and is usually "all in the eyes of the beholder" and for those reasons I don't put on trades according to oversold or overbot. However, you are not asking how I trade you are asking what the most important criteria is when trying to determine oversold or overbot. Well I can tell you my favorite indicator the MACD will not help but you could try the RSI because it has definite levels of oversold and overbot. One thing to watch with the RSI is now well the market trades with the RSI. Here is an example using the Nat Gas emini, QN. I have placed red arrows when the market got overbot according to the RSI and a blue arrow when oversold. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 2:18:46 PM

which is also 61.8% off Tuesday low, Wednesday high

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 2:14:38 PM

Wer 'e holding above R1 so far.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 2:13:57 PM

About time they crackdown on naked short selling. I thought that was relegated to penny stocks, but these guys are doing it with the big board. Shame on them.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 2:11:56 PM


DJ- Stock-option backdating and other abuses prompt SEC to revisit compensation-disclosure rules for top five executives of public companies. SEC plans to finalize rules requiring more details at Wednesday meeting.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 2:11:03 PM


DJ- New York Stock Exchange's regulatory arm fines Daiwa and units of Citigroup, Credit Suisse and Goldman Sachs a combined $1.25 million for violating federal short-selling code. Firms don't admit or deny wrongdoing.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 2:03:35 PM

The H&S neckline on the ES and YM charts has held up so far however, it is no longer a neckline because the H&S is not longer valid.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 2:02:12 PM

Lebanon Parliament Speaker Rejects U.S. Proposals

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 2:01:38 PM

Iraq To Resume North Oil Exports Next Week

DJ- Although Iraq managed to complete maintenance to one of two oil export pipelines to Turkey, it needs a week to resume the flow to Ceyhan, a senior Iraqi oil official said Monday.

He said the flow from Kirkuk would start Tuesday to the Beiji refinery 200 kilometers north of Baghdad, which has been shut down for the last week due to lack of stored crude.

"One week is needed to fill the tanks of the refinery before the flow could be diverted to Ceyhan," he told Dow Jones Newswires by telephone.

The pipeline usually pumps crude oil from Kirkuk's oil fields to the Beiji refinery first, and when the tanks at the facility are full, the extra crude is pumped to the Turkish Ceyhan port.

Despite some reports that the pipeline was sabotaged July 9, the official insisted that engineers of the North Oil Co. were carrying maintenance work to one of the two export pipelines. He said they completed the maintenance to the one, which is 36 inches in diameter, while the second of 40 inches in diameter is still under maintenance.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 1:34:47 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -
Long 1478.50, raise stop to 1475.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 1:33:38 PM

We are already +26.50 for the day, so I don't mind risking 5 points here, although 1478 is R1 and now R.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 1:32:37 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Triggered on the long at 1478.50. stop 1473.50.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 1:32:33 PM

Back, I see we got filled.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 1:26:02 PM

The neckline of these two H&S patterns needs to hold on or the bulls just may lose control. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 1:25:54 PM

American Express (AXP) $51.44 +1.61% Link ... earnings released.

2Q Earnings From Continuing Ops Rise 13%; Rev Up 14% On Record Cardmember Spending; Nearly 2 M Cards-in-Force Added In The Qtr

2Q Net $945M Vs $1.01B, -6.7%

2Q Rev $6.88B Vs $6.02B, +14%

2Q EPS 76c Vs 81c (Consensus $0.74/share)

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 1:23:05 PM

Stepping back a little bit Nat Gas may have just formed a bullish wedge, which would fit into starting a bullish season wouldn't it? All the more reason to not short this commodity. Link

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 1:19:41 PM

Natural GAs is coming up to some major resistance and may be a good spot to take a short. But once again remember we are into a typically bullish season for Nat Gas due to the hurricane season. Link

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 1:16:49 PM

And I am stopped at 11035.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 1:15:48 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 1:02:44 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 7/24/2006 1:02:27 PM

I've got some Fib retracements and projections lining up around ES 1261 to watch for support to be followed by another leg up.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 12:43:41 PM

Treasury to Raise Combined $13.48 Billion in Fresh Cash

DJ- The Treasury plans to raise a combined $13.48 billion in fresh cash this week with the sale of $22.00 billion of two-year notes and $14.00 billion of five-year notes.

Maturing bills outstanding total $22.52 billion.

The two-year notes, to be sold Wednesday, July 26, will be dated July 31 and will mature July 31, 2008. The five-year notes, to be sold Thursday, July 27, will be dated July 31 and will mature July 31, 2011. The CUSIP number for the two-year notes is 912828FM7 and the CUSIP for the five-year notes is 912828FN5.

The auction amounts are unchanged from last month.

The Federal Reserve holds $8.49 billion of the maturing securities for its own account.

Noncompetitive tenders for the notes, available in minimum denominations of $1,000, must be received by 12:00 p.m. EDT the day of the auction.

Competitive tenders for the notes, available in minimum denominations of $1,000, must be received by 1 p.m. EDT.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 12:41:26 PM

5-year YIELD ($FVX.X) up 0.3 bp at 4.992%

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 12:40:57 PM

DJ- U.S. To Sell $14.0 Billion in 5-year Notes Thursday

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 12:40:17 PM

DJ- U.S. to Sell $22.0 Billion in 2-year Notes Wednesday

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 12:39:32 PM

DJ- U.S. To Sell $23.0 Billion in 4-Week Bills Tuesday (Vs. $15.0 Billion)

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 12:36:25 PM

I see some ominous looking H&S on these 5 minute charts. Link

Keene Little : 7/24/2006 12:31:51 PM

ES has stalled at the 62% projection of the 1st leg up from July 18th, which is at 1267. So far it looks like a relatively minor pullback which may only be testing the broken downtrend line from the 11th, currently at 1264. It's looking like we've got at least a minor new high to go and it will probably leave a negative divergence on the short term charts. Maybe that's when it will hit the downtrend line from the 3rd, just under 1270 now. A pullback to 1260 area would by typical and is why I think a scalp short play from the 1270 area could work nicely.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 12:27:55 PM

Now long YM at 11060.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 12:23:46 PM

Let's try a YM long at 11060 with a stop at 11035 is filled.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 12:23:07 PM

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) $17.54 -3.94% ... After test of WEEKLY S1 ($16.97)

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 12:22:15 PM

Intel (INTC) $17.50 +2.04% ... After challenge of WEEKLY Pivot ($17.57)

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 12:20:41 PM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $29.75 +1.95% ... after challenge of WEEKLY Pivot ($29.90)

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 12:10:57 PM


DJ- Global commerce talks at the World Trade Organization collapse as top powers fail to agree on steps toward liberalizing trade in farm and manufactured goods, an impasse E.U. Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson blames on the U.S.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 12:09:23 PM


DJ- EXCO Resources jumps 17% as a unit agrees to buy Progress Energy' Winchester Energy and associated natural-gas businesses for $1.2 billion. EXCO plans to spin off the unit it is forming to acquire the Progress businesses.

XCO $12.09 +17.95% Link

PGN $43.66 -0.29% Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 12:04:36 PM


DJ- The $14.50 a share bid, a 24% premium to NovaGold's closing price Friday, is an attempt by Barrick to consolidate its interest in Alaskan and Canadian mines.

AMEX:NG $15.39 +31.87% Link

ABX $28.10 -0.63% Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 12:01:38 PM


DJ- Group including Chairman Barrist and One Equity Partners agrees to buy NCO Group for $27.50 a share. Price tag is 44% higher than stock's closing price two months ago, when Barrist proposed to take the company private.

NCOG $26.54 +3.95% Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 11:59:25 AM


DJ- Motorola agrees to buy back $1.2 billion of its shares under an existing $4 billion repurchase program and authorizes the repurchase of an additional 9%, or $4.5 billion, of its shares during the next three years.

MOT $21.26 +4.21% Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 11:57:52 AM


DJ- Three groups of private-equity firms are in the final stage of bidding more than $10.2 billion for Philips Electronics' semiconductor division, one of the world's largest makers of computer chips that power various electronics equipment.

PHG $31.80 +6.78% Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 11:56:03 AM


DJ- BellSouth earns $887 million, or 49c a share, as operating revenue rises 1.2% to $5.21 billion on a slight increase in sales. CFO says more customers are opting to sign up for faster Internet connection instead of cheaper product.

BLS $36.04 +1.80% Link

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 11:55:27 AM



Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 11:54:30 AM


DJ- Airline expects to earn $119 million, or 93c a share, as operating revenue rises 16% to $5.1 billion. Results helped by restructuring and cost-control efforts and include $22 million severance expense.

UAUA $29.23 +8.46% Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 11:52:33 AM


DJ- Drug maker posts net income of $237 million, or 16c a share, which includes 9c in restructuring charges, as sales rise 11% to $2.8 billion. Analysts projected EPS of 17c on revenue of $2.65 billion.

SGP $20.45 +5.08% Link

Keene Little : 7/24/2006 11:51:26 AM

If ES finds resistance at the 1270 area, with the 30 and 60-min charts looking like they could roll back over soon, scalpers should be looking to take some money off the table if you're long and even try a quick short play.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 11:50:32 AM


DJ- Hospital operator agrees to sell itself to founder Frist and private-equity firms Bain Capital and KKR, along with Merrill Lynch's private-equity arm, for $51 a share, a 6.5% premium to Friday's close. Meanwhile, HCA posts 27% drop in 2Q net.

HCA $49.46 +3.36% Link

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 11:49:42 AM

TICKS just a tad bullish today!!!! Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 11:48:33 AM


DJ- U.S. stocks gain ground as a buyout of hospital operator HCA leads a flurry of merger and acquisition deals, with strong results from drug companies Merck and Schering-Plough adding to positive sentiment. Dow Jones Industrial Average adds more than 160 points, while the Nasdaq Comp. rises 38 points.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 11:48:14 AM

VIX has confirmed each and every new ES high. Link

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 11:46:11 AM

Since trading is far from an exact science we have to play the probabilities and trade zones instead of exact numbers. The one fact that is a certain is NQ is the weakest of all markets and is the market to sell on any rally. I think the "zone" between the two red trendlines has the highest probability of failing and should be shorted. Link

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 11:37:50 AM

ADs are very bullish today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 11:33:26 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 11:29:56 AM

AMD will get a bump at some point with a big IBM deal early August, but if they hadn't bought ATYT, they would already be rallying.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 11:29:36 AM

SPY $125.78 +1.46% ... WEEKLY R1 just above at $126.01.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 11:28:54 AM

Goldman Sachs (GS) $146.88 +3.40% ... probes WEEKLY R1.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 11:29:22 AM

That analyst is a minority. The deal is terrible for AMD as it locks it in to one graphic chipmaker. Furthermore, INTC is the #1 graphic (intergrated), followed by ATYT and NVDA. I think the winner wil be NVDA and INTC, as AMD profit margings slip even more as ATYT margins are just as bad as AMD. Lousy move. Just when AMD needs cash to fight INTC. The shareholders have spoken and are dumping AMD.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 11:24:37 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Advanced Micro Devices Inc. on Monday agreed to buy ATI Technologies Inc. for $5.4 billion, a deal that will open a new front in AMD's rivalry with Intel Corp.

AMD said it will pay $4.2 billion in cash and 57 million of its own shares for ATI, a maker of graphics processors and so-called chipsets that support microprocessors, which are the brains of PCs.

The transaction will broaden AMD's revenue stream, letting it tap into more consumer electronic products, a fast growing part of the semiconductor market.

ATI's chips are used in computers, digital televisions, video-game consoles and cell phones. It sells its chips to among others, AMD and Intel, AMD's much-bigger rival for PC and server chips.

"This combination offers AMD a broader and stronger product line in its competition with Intel," RBC Capital Markets analyst Steve Arthur said in a research note. The deal values ATI (ATYT) (19.34, +2.78, +16.8%) at $20.47 each, a 24% premium over Friday's closing prices, when AMD (AMD) ( 17.18, -1.08, -5.9%) dropped 16% to a one-year low.

In early trading Monday, ATI surged more than 17% to $19.40 - a 52-week high. AMD fell 6% to $17.18. ATI agreed to pay a $162 million termination fee if the deal doesn't succeed.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 11:21:03 AM


Keene Little : 7/24/2006 11:20:49 AM

I should have added a Fib projection on my previous chart to show an initial upside target, assuming we're going to get two equal legs up from July 18th (not a given of course), of 1281.50. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 11:20:27 AM

The data provider I've been using for SPX NH/NL has been down since this weekend.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 11:19:00 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Friday's Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 11:16:04 AM

If we get that R1 test.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 11:15:28 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long at 1478.50, stop 1473.50.

Keene Little : 7/24/2006 11:15:26 AM

ES bounced up to the downtrend line from July 11th at 1263.25 and has pulled back a little. Assuming it will get above that, the next resistance level will be around 1270 which is just above the gap from the 12th and at the next downtrend line from July 3rd. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 11:09:28 AM

Closing it now, I will buy the drop. We made +26.50 ($530 per contract) today already.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 11:08:21 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 11:07:36 AM

18.33 is 50% long term support and is must hold now.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 11:07:13 AM

Alert: NVDA Jan 17.50 calls at 3.50, stop conditional underlying at 18 (sell to close if NVDA trades at 18 or below).

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 11:02:49 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 10:59:03 AM

Nevertheless, I am trading it this time because I bloody 'ell want to book more than the profits I let slip last week. That really irked me. It was the right long at 1460, but they had to get back down there and opex me.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 10:55:21 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert -
Long 1472, stop 1470, sell to close at 1494.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 10:54:13 AM

One of these dyas, bears will get fooled. So far, thay think every rally is setting up new lows. I am not sure it will happen this time. The Tuesday lows for NQ should hold (1457.75) and could have been the buying opportunity of the summer.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 10:50:19 AM

Here is a chart of the PDRs based intraday highs and lows. Link

Here is a chart of the PDRs based on the overnight session. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 10:48:53 AM

QQQQ 36.43 and NQ 1493 will be R.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 10:48:27 AM

This is the cautious kind of rally that can lead to lasting gains.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 10:39:04 AM

I am not going to wait for a close below the November 2005 trendline on my Gold longs and I have bailed on them now. Actually it was only a long in GLD so it didn't take much to get out.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 10:35:21 AM

I got so sick of all this doom and gloom, let's get some sunshine.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 10:34:48 AM

Wow. NVDA up 6.75%, option is back in the money at 3.8.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 10:33:51 AM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) alert $60.00 -2.77% ... (original target for the 1/2 position)

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 10:31:42 AM

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Retail stocks took on a decidedly bullish tone in early trading Monday with every component in the sector's main measure on the rise.

Shares of Tiffany & Co., Limited Brands and RadioShack Corp. led the march north, underscoring the broad-based rally. The S&P Retail Index ($RLX) (425.22, +7.37, +1.8%) was up 1.6% to 424.46 -- its strongest opening in weeks.

Shares of Tiffany (TIF) ( 31.58, +1.11, +3.6%) tacked on 4.3% to $31.79. JMP Securities lifted its rating on the shares, saying a recent pullback makes a good entry point, especially for long-term investors.

Shares of Limited Brands (LTD) ( 24.32, +0.40, +1.7%) , parent of Limited, Express, Victoria's Secret and Bath & Body Works, trekked higher by 2.8% to $24.64 while RadioShack (RSH) (15.59, +0.35, +2.3%) shares were up 2.7% to $15.65.

Off the index, Polo Ralph Lauren (RL) 54.99, +7.09, +14.8%) was the leading percentage gainer on the New York Stock Exchange, leaping nearly 16% to $55.45.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 10:28:06 AM

Stepping away, if stopped, get back in as long as QQV stays red.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 10:28:10 AM

Still holding 1/4 short in the StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $60.22 -2.41% ...

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 10:26:45 AM

This is not a day to be shorting.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 10:26:32 AM

Swing trade short close out alert ... let's close out the 1/2 position short (78 shares for risk managed accounts) in the StreetTracks Gold (GLD) here at the offer of $60.28

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 10:26:30 AM

Good day to eat some bear.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 10:26:16 AM

+7 partial, remaining stays at 1470 stop.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 10:25:18 AM

New highs coming

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 10:25:14 AM

ES breaks to a new daily high which is confirmed by the VIX to a new daily low. I expect follow through here.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 10:23:44 AM

TICKS +1000 YM 11004 and once again I will not be taking this because of the bullish aD line but they are interesting to watch.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 10:22:50 AM

QQV red and the all clear is on if we hold 1470.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 10:22:28 AM

Off we go.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 10:21:36 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert -
Long 1472, raise stop to 1470.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 10:21:12 AM

They are holding it up.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 10:21:04 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1472, stop 1468.50

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 10:20:26 AM

S&P Dep. Receipts (SPY) $124.90 +0.76% ... 60-min. interval chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 10:20:06 AM

S&P Dep. Receipts (SPY) $124.90 +0.76% ... 60-min. interval chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 10:19:08 AM

QQV still green.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 10:18:48 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 10:16:15 AM

I know I said I was going to use a wider stop, but I don;t think it is necessary.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 10:16:08 AM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $60.27 -2.33% ... 60-min interval chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 10:15:49 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1470, stop 1468.

Keene Little : 7/24/2006 10:13:28 AM

On Friday ES had dipped down to the 62% retracement of last week's rally, at 1245.50, and this morning it opened just about at the 50% retracement (1250) and climbed up to the 38% (1254.50) where it has stalled. If nothing else it shows how the Fibs are working. It could consolidate a little further but so far I see nothing telling me a high is in. This should continue higher so buy the dips for now.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 10:12:40 AM

Is that it? 50% of gap??

Tab Gilles : 7/24/2006 10:12:38 AM


Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 10:12:05 AM

I intend on getting back that +45 profit they stole from me last week and some. 13 down, 32 to go.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 10:11:25 AM

50% of gap was bought. Now at PP. Very bullish light pullback so far. I am waiting to see what happens at PP

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 10:10:08 AM

The +1000 TICK fade at YM=10980 got to a high of 10998 but is now at 10973 and almost to our 15 point profit. Of course I would not have taken it because of the bullishness in the AD line and volume. You never know with those TICKS though do you.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 10:08:04 AM

Opps NQ to new daily lows and the bulls seem to be losing it again.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 10:06:56 AM

This may be a great place to short MSFT with a stop just above Friday's highs. Link

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 10:05:02 AM



Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 10:03:52 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 10:00:41 AM

Just wait for the pullback.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 10:00:24 AM

With oil and interest rates down, they will drive this higher today.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 9:59:23 AM

Draw your daily fibs now. See R at 76.4%?

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 9:59:02 AM

This is the main reason I will be buying the dips today. Link

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 9:59:16 AM

The AD line and volume (and to a lesser extent the VIX and TRIN) are saying to stay on the long side today and buy the dips (day trading of course)

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 9:54:50 AM

Good, my earler exit was correct. PP is 1469. Gap close if 1460.50, 50% gap if we go in is 1465.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 9:54:02 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 9:53:16 AM

Looks like we will get a deeper pullback.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 9:51:59 AM

All markets have now broken their PDHs except ES.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 9:52:14 AM

NQ chart I had posted last night, updated. A descending broadening formation with a right angle is bullish: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 9:49:21 AM

Let's see if they set a bear trap.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 9:49:06 AM

VIX is now testing its PDL and the TRIN has fallen below its PDL both supporting the bullish AD line and volume.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 9:49:04 AM

Ok, we are having a double top at weekly pivot. If it holds, we should get back in that opening gap for a better entry, but bulls are holding on here above 1469.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 9:45:58 AM

AD line is +1742

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 9:45:29 AM

Let's add some rules to these TICK fades. First of all if the AD line is above +1000 I would not fade so this TICK reading is not a fade.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 9:44:41 AM

Since we made +13 overnight, the next entry will have a wider stop than ususal.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 9:44:05 AM

TICKS +1000 benchmark YM +10980.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 9:43:45 AM

Missed that one.

Jeff Bailey : 7/24/2006 9:43:25 AM

Swing trade short lower stop alert on the 3/4 position in the StreetTracks Gold (GDL) $60.28 -2.31% .... to $62.00

Looking to cover just 1/2 of this position if target of $60.00 is traded.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 9:43:24 AM

NQ pivot was support.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 9:42:20 AM

Silicon Labs' second-quarter earns $10.1 mln vs $15.6 mln (8:18 AM ET) NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Silicon Laboratories (SLAB) Monday reported second-quarter earnings of $10.1 million, or 18 cents a share, down from a year-ago profit of $15.6 million, or 28 cents a share.

I would not a buyer of this stock . It is still under all the major trendlines and since the market has transitioned into, what I think, is a bear cyclical not the time to be thinking long on NAZ stocks. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 9:42:07 AM

Sure glad we are still in the NVDA trade. Up 7.75%. Riding the ATYT coattails from the AMD acquisition, which by the way is not such a good idea for AMD. However, keep in mind that AMD will announce a big Opteron deal with IBM on August 4th, so that stock could be finding a floor soon. I just hate the profit margins of AMD (6.5%) as opposed to INTC (18.5%).

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 9:37:21 AM

That was a nice overnight trade ($260 per contract), let's pick up the pullback, if it comes.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 9:33:53 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 9:33:32 AM

Oh my goodness AD line is +1231!

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 9:32:57 AM

RIght off the bat TICKs hit +800.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 9:32:38 AM

NQ breaks its PDH and YM is testing its PDH.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 9:32:26 AM

Resistance is right here at weekly pivot.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 9:32:13 AM

Bargain hunters coming in, let's see if we get the usual mid-morning selling.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 9:30:37 AM

Big jump for NVDA.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 9:29:40 AM

I expect the downward red trendline to hold, or at least the twizzer top at 1269 to hold, and should be a very good place to sell this market. The bullish MACD divergence should not be ignored but there are two things I think we have to look at. First of all we saw the bears overtake a very nice MACD divergence on the NQ chart so, although I very much respect these divergences, I'm thinking the bears are strong enough to overtake this one as well. Secondly, the MACD has not crossed back up so there has not been a true divergence yet. Link

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 9:18:46 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Verizon Communications (VZ) said Monday it added 1.8 million net wireless customers in the second quarter, as the company continued to narrow the gap with market leader Cingular Wireless.

Verizon Wireless ended the quarter with 54.8 million wireless subscribers, nearly all of whom are direct retail customers. Verizon has led the industry in quarterly subscriber growth for most of the past two years.

Cingular, owned by AT&T Inc. (T) said last week it added 1.5 million net customers to finish the second quarter with 57.3 million. Yet only about two-thirds of the new additions were direct retail customers, which are more profitable than wholesale subscribers or those signed up indirectly. Verizon Communications will issue more details about its wireless performance when it reports second-quarter earnings on Aug. 1.

Verizon co-owns the wireless business with U.K.-based Vodafone Group plc (VOD

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 9:16:31 AM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) - Merck & Co. reported second-quarter earnings and revenue topped Wall Street expectations and increased its estimate for the full year.

The Whitehouse Station, N.J., drugmaker (MRK ) reported net income more than doubled to $1.5 billion, or 69 cents a share, from $720.6 million, or 33 cents, in the year-earlier period.

The year-ago quarter included a tax charge to repatriate foreign profits.

Excluding restructuring charges, the drugmaker earned 73 cents for the latest quarter. Revenue rose 6% to $5.77 billion from $5.47 billion.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 9:15:23 AM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Schering-Plough said Monday it swung to a second-quarter net profit in a performance propelled by strong sales of its drug Vytorin, Nasonex and Remicade that handily beat Wall Street expectations.

For the quarter ended June 30, Schering-Plough (SGP) posted net income of $237 million, or 16 cents a share. Excluding charges related to its restructuring operations, it earned 25 cents a share.

In the year-ago period, it posted a loss of 48 million, or 5 cents a share. The results include charges of $259 million, or about 18 cents per share.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 9:09:42 AM

The swing low from May 24th, the magenta trendline, looks to me to be a very good spot for a place to sell the rally. Buy the time it gets there the 50 and 200 EMA may meet this trendline, which will make it all the better place to get short. Link

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 9:01:54 AM

Here is your daily chart of Gold. If this market closes below the magenta trendline which is also the 100 EMA I am out of my long gold positions. I will not short this commodity but stand aside and look for other opportunities. Link

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 8:54:52 AM

Since I captured that chart of the commodities, Natural Gas as made a new overnight high and Gold a new overnight low.

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 8:53:25 AM

If you are not out of your long Gold positions today may be the day. On Friday I stated a close below the November 2005 trendling and/or the 100 EMA would be putting me on the sidelines and I think we have a very good chance of that happening today. I will show a daily chart of gold later today.

Overnight Oil broke its PDL. Considering all the tensions in the Middle East you'd think Oil would be a lot stronger than this.

Natural GAs is starting to come alive probably due to the hurricane season ramping up.

TBOnds had a fairly neutral overnight session. Link

Jane Fox : 7/24/2006 8:46:20 AM

Good morning all. Equities are looking stronger this morning and no market broke its PDL although NQ did test it. I believe the markets will test their respective PDH and probably break them today. We are very oversold and the bears need to take a break however, this is still a sell the rallies market. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 8:35:57 AM

There was something vaguely bullish on how we held 1460 against all bear attempts Friday. But it could have been opex. We will find out soon.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 8:25:15 AM

Should Tuesday lows fail, we will go straight down to 1443. Right now, pivot R at 1469.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 8:24:17 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1461.50, lower stop to 1457.50.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/24/2006 8:23:34 AM

The constant bid and lack of overnight volatility indicates few sellers on this one so instead of trading in and out, I will hold on to the trade. Feel free to take +7 now, we have been burned before...

Keene Little : 7/24/2006 8:22:01 AM

SPX 1240 is the magic number--long above, short below. Nice bounce in the futures this morning so let's see if the bulls can keep it going after the cash open. After Wednesday's Fed-induced short covering rally the bulls have had nothing to write home about. Today being post-opex Monday, just be careful about whipsaws.

Tab Gilles : 7/24/2006 7:30:45 AM

$COMPQ/$BPCOMPQ/$NASI Nasdaq is extremely oversold via market breadth. Link Even Barron's is calling it a BUY! Link

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