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Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 1:32:06 AM

NQ at pivot. Just turned green. I will leave the trade open, stop stays at 1481. Some of you might want to book profits here.

Keene Little : 7/25/2006 10:19:16 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 7/25/2006 9:59:59 PM

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Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 6:50:15 PM

They might drive it down to S1 overnight.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 6:34:18 PM

July 25 (Bloomberg) -- Amazon.com Inc., the world's largest online retailer, said second-quarter profit fell 58 percent on increased technology spending. Shares fell 10 percent as the company reduced its full-year profit forecast. Net income declined to $22 million, or 5 cents a share, from $52 million, or 12 cents, a year earlier, Seattle-based Amazon.com said today in a statement, missing analysts' estimates. Revenue rose 22 percent to $2.14 billion, helped by strong electronics sales.
""The big miss was in earnings. And this has been Amazon's problem the last several years," said Tim Ghriskey, who helps manage more than $1 billion at Bedford Hills, New York-based Solaris Asset Management, which sold Amazon.com shares this year. "They've spent away their earnings by offering free shipping and investing very heavily in technology and new business lines." Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 5:48:14 PM

NYSE Summation ($NYSI) - 10-point box Link ... could spell trouble for the SPY puts.

NASDAQ Summation ($NASI) - 10-point box Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 5:42:20 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

July to-date blotter with today's closed trades at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 5:15:20 PM

Amazon.com ... more of a "retail" consumer discretionary to me.

eBay too ...

May weigh on QQQQ near-term. ... QQQQ $36.46 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 5:11:02 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 4:59:25 PM

SUNW is getting a bid.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 4:58:46 PM

AMZN is going to hurt techs tomorrow. I will raise the stop overnight or take profits. Waiting for more data.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 4:57:03 PM

Jane, the 50 sma was exact resistance on 7/24, so I have been watching that one more than ema. Right now at 1267.50. It also lines up better on the chart as previous reistance all through July, I think.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 4:54:15 PM

AMZN takes a hit.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 4:52:54 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 4:40:03 PM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 4,488.29 -1.76% Link ... will monitor closely in coming sessions. Holds longer-term 200-day SMA

United Parcel (UPS) $71.80 -10.25% Link ... closes at highs of the session.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 4:33:33 PM

Mercury Interactive (MERQ) halted alert $39.00 +0.85% ... Saying it has agreed to be bought by Hewlett Packard (HPQ) for $52 per share ($4.5 billion).

HP said that on a pro forma basis, the transaction is expected to be $0.04 dilutive to non-GAAP per share earnings in fiscal year 2007 and $0.02 accretive to non-GAAP per share earnings in fiscal 2008.

Keene Little : 7/25/2006 4:22:42 PM

The move up from last Friday is starting to give me the feeling that it's developing an ascending wedge, which is supported by the internal 3-wave moves. If so it fits well as wave-C of an A-B-C upward correction from the July 18th low and it would be bearish for the market. After an A-B-C correction completes the market would then head for new lows and it shouldn't waste any time doing it. Link

The alternative to this scenario remains a choppy rally into the end of the summer and we still don't know which it will be until the June low is decisively taken out. But once the current move up finishes, especially if we see an over-throw tomorrow followed by a drop back inside the pattern, it will be time to get shorty just in case something more significant develops to the downside.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 4:08:42 PM

ES's 50EMA, the line in the sand, is 1272 and it looks like ES will close at ~1274. Geesh!!

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 4:06:20 PM

There are no economic reports slated for tomorrow.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 4:05:51 PM

Sun Microsystems swings to a loss, weighed down by restructuring charges. Revenue jumps 29% helped by acquisitions.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 4:04:41 PM

I have had a family situation come up so I will not in the monitor for the rest of the week.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 4:04:37 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPY $126.80

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 3:42:36 PM

All markets are undertaking a nice little rally but only ES and YM have made new daily highs. So much for my "feeling" that we will make new daily lows. This is the kind of follow through that I was looking for to maybe change my perspective.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 3:35:59 PM

Bullish swing trade long alert for 1/2 bullish position in the NASDAQ-100 Tracker (QQQQ) $36.69 +0.76% ... stop $35.75, target $37.90 (may be adjusted)

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 3:28:03 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 3:19:56 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPY 126.98

Keene Little : 7/25/2006 3:19:38 PM

Well, so much for an additional pullback. This is either a head fake move to the upside as part of a larger sideways/down correction or the pullback was very shallow and is finished. If the pullback is finished then we should see ES head of at least 1281.25.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 3:17:07 PM

Goldman Sachs (GS) $148.12 +0.76% ... Gets a trade at MONTHLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 3:03:10 PM

Bearish swing trade stop alert on the remaining StreetTracks Gold (GLD) short here at $61.60.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 3:02:19 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 3:40:35 PM

* SEPT. CRUDE DOWN $1.30, OR 1.7%, TO END AT $73.75/BRL

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 2:56:03 PM

Long at 1486, stop 1481 stays open, I have to step away.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 2:55:08 PM

boom, boom, boom, boom. Like the song.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 2:51:08 PM

That's a "round tripper" on BGO. Traded WEEKLY S1 ($4.87) yesterday morning, WEEKLY R1 ($5.27) today.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 2:48:30 PM

HUI.X 319.87 +1.18% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 2:47:35 PM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $61.40 +0.42% ... ($614.00)

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 2:46:15 PM

Bearish swing trade short stop alert for Bema Gold (BGO) $5.33

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 2:36:17 PM

The bear is still the Grizzly type, so mind your step. I just think he is due for a nap.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 2:33:25 PM

Swing trade short adjust stop alert ... on Bema Gold (BGO) $5.29 +5.37% ... to $5.33 (from $5.30)

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 2:32:22 PM

The pullback the past hour looked very timid. Let's eat some bear.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 2:31:41 PM

No market has even made a 50% retracement of yesterday's gain. This is bullish. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 2:31:29 PM

The reason I am keeping the stop at 1481 is 5 dma at 1483 and pivot. Just in case. But so far, 1484 is holding and that is key.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 2:30:52 PM


Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 2:30:28 PM

GLD and chart we put together back in mid-June at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 2:28:49 PM

Bulls are making a stand at 50% last week (1484).

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 2:25:46 PM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $61.39 +0.40% ... ($613.90)

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 2:25:08 PM

Brazil's Central Bank Buys Dollars at BRL2.202

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 2:22:32 PM

I am taking it here.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 2:22:22 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1486, stop 1481.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 2:22:11 PM

AD line drops below 0 but not by much.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 2:21:51 PM

50% last week is 1484

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 2:15:05 PM


Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 2:11:52 PM

Ok, 1483/1482 coming.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 2:11:33 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 2:11:33 PM

Fed Discount Minutes

Most Saw `Modest' Slowing Of Econ

Most Saw Possible Inflationary Pressures

Some Said More Time Needed To Assess Econ

DJ- Federal Reserve banks requesting the latest discount rate increase in advance thought the economy was slowing modestly amid potential inflationary pressure, according to Fed discount rate minutes released Tuesday.

By June 22, all but two of the 12 regional Fed banks had requested a quarter-percentage point increase in the discount rate. Directors of these banks "generally viewed recent economic data as indicating a modest deceleration in economic activity," the minutes show.

Still, these directors found a further rate increase was appropriate given "possible inflationary pressures, which in the view of some directors were partly attributable to elevated resource utilization." Since last December the central bank has publicly cited potential price pressure from the increased use of "resources" such as the labor pool and industrial capacity. The unemployment rate last month was 4.6%, its lowest since mid-2001.

By contrast, regional Fed directors who didn't request the rate increase in advance "believed that more time was needed to assess the outlook for both economic growth and inflation," the minutes show. The San Francisco and Kansas City Fed banks had not requested the increase in advance.

On June 29 the Federal Reserve Board effectively approved an increase in the primary discount rate for emergency credit to 6.25% from 6.0% for all the regional Fed banks. It signaled advance approval for those that had not already asked for an increase. The San Francisco Fed raised its rate later, on June 29, and the Kansas City Fed raised its rate on July 6.

The Fed's key policy instrument is its targeted federal funds rate, the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans. On June 29 the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee raised the fed funds rate a quarter percentage point to 5.25%. The FOMC also removed language in an accompanying statement that had previously suggested pre-commitment to further credit tightening.

The primary discount rate is generally set one percentage point above the fed funds rate. The Fed also maintains a higher secondary discount rate for emergency credit to banks that don't qualify for the primary rate. The directors of the regional Fed banks vote on where they would like to set the discount rate. Their requests must be approved by the Fed's Board of Governors.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 2:10:28 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1488, stop 1486.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 2:05:35 PM

Columbia To Sell Up To 20% of State Oil Co. Ecopetrol

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 2:04:51 PM

Weak. Looks like one more drop.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 2:04:40 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 2:04:11 PM

Internals remain totally neutral and giving me no hints as to bullishness or bearishness. I just have this "feeling" we have not seen daily lows yet.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 2:00:57 PM

Bulls are holding this. We are only risking the 2 point se made earlier.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 1:59:31 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1488.50, stop 1486.50

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 2:01:16 PM

We have certainly reverted back to summer trading.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 1:57:50 PM

Maybe that dip at the turn.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 1:57:36 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 1:55:08 PM

20 ema 30 mn has been support since Monday noon.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 1:52:37 PM

QQV green

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 1:51:54 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -
Lower stop to 1486.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 1:55:17 PM

A quick try at support. Out if it doesn't work.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 1:51:11 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1488, stop 1487.

Keene Little : 7/25/2006 1:50:32 PM

Assuming for the moment that we've seen the high for the bounce of this morning's low, two equal legs down now from this morning's high is at 1257. The downtrend line from July 11th is now near 1261 but if we see a lazy decline that stays choppy and slow, that downtrend line intersects the uptrend line from the 18th at 1257 on Thursday. I have no idea if that's what we'll get but if we do we won't have any good trading opportunities until it finds support (unless you get short and stay there until then). Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 1:48:34 PM

50% last week H/L is serving as support at 1484. I am starting to wonder if I will ever get 1483.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 1:23:00 PM

Bema Gold (BGO) $5.25 +4.58% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 1:22:30 PM

AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) Daily Interval bar chart at this Link ... Found selling earlier this morning, then went to new lows of the session, but has come back for a second look.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 1:17:20 PM

SPX NH/NL 23:10

Yesterday's tally was 24:10

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 1:16:45 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 1:16:34 PM

SOX is still green and oil is down. I really can't get see all the bearsihness, other than rates, but TNX is facing stiff resistance at 50.70. COMP is still green as well. This is a minor consolidation so far and I have learned not to trade against the SOX, so I will maintain a buy the dips stance.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 1:17:00 PM

I used the 50EMA as ES's upper resistance and notice how it did peak up above it today however, see where it did once before on June 2nd? ES needs to close above the 50EMA before the bulls take control and I somehow don't think that will happen - at least will not happen today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 1:02:09 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 1:00:51 PM

ER's resistance zone is intact as well but notice that the bulls were to get the MACD to cross. Link

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 12:59:20 PM

YM's resistance zone is intact. Link

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 12:58:28 PM

NQ's resistance zone is intact. Link

Keene Little : 7/25/2006 12:53:40 PM

Price action is lunch time slow but we're getting the little bounce that should lead to another leg down. Once this small bounce is complete I'll be looking for two equal legs down for today and then watch for support to kick in for a long play. A scalp short should be setting up soon.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 12:53:06 PM

Should have kept my original stop on the +1000 TICK fade at 11090.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 12:50:48 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPY $126.12

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 12:48:04 PM

Swing trade lower stop alert ... on the rest of the StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $61.41 +0.44% ... to $61.60 (just above today's highs)

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 12:45:52 PM

May be "buying" Bema Gold (BGO) $5.25 +4.58% if this keeps up.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 12:44:23 PM

Feeling a little "short," but I can't find a bullish trade to get behind.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 12:42:39 PM

That and 1.00 Jane (TRIN)

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 12:32:50 PM

If you took the YM fade I would lower my stop to 11081.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 12:32:40 PM

GLD is down 2.94% last 5-days, +5.84% last 20.

SLV is up 2.02% last 5-days, +5.93% last 20.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 12:31:25 PM

So far the TRIN has not broken its PDH and that should be worrisome to the bears.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 12:30:17 PM

iShares Silver (SLV) $108.10 -0.98% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 12:29:42 PM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $61.07 -0.11% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 12:29:07 PM

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 86.67 +0.38% (30-minute delayed) ... really turned around higher just over 30-minutes ago, but not a great deal of impact on mining stocks.

HUI.X 316.49 +0.11% ...

BGO $5.22 +3.98% ...

NEM $41.29 +0.52% ...

GG $27.63 +0.61% ...

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 12:28:12 PM

These are about as neutral and choppy as you can get. Other than TICKS fades I would not be trading this mess. Link

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 12:28:49 PM

It looks like a very good environment to fade the TICKS but I would give YM up to about 11090.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 12:24:17 PM

TICKS +1000 benchmark YM at 11070.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 12:19:15 PM


DJ- Telecommunications giant's CFO reports company cut 3,600 jobs in 2Q, bringing the total cut jobs to 7,000 for the year. AT&T also reports higher-than-expected earnings as net income soars 80%.

(see 10:33:40 AM EDT)

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 12:14:36 PM


DJ- Shares fall 20% as online DVD rental firm's earnings outlook disappoints Wall Street. Netflix keeps its earlier forecast for full-year results amid stiffer competition from rival Blockbuster and nascent threat seen from online movie download business.

NFLX $18.98 -20.11% Link ...

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 12:13:51 PM

If daily lows break I predict it will be NQ first then ES then Ym and ER last. How's that from someone who doesn't even have charts.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 12:12:00 PM

From what I can see prices are hanging around daily lows and that is always bearish and protends of new daily lows. Wish I could see the AD line/volume and the VIX.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 12:06:03 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPY $125.79

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 12:04:29 PM

Still no charts but from what I can see on my IB platform, daily lows are holding so far.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 12:01:14 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPY $125.75

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 11:59:43 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPY $125.82

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 11:54:03 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gateway Inc. (GTW) ( 1.70, -0.10, -5.6%) shares lost more ground in Tuesday's trading session after Standard & Poor's said it would remove the No. 3 U.S. personal-computer company from the benchmark S&P 500 Index . S&P said it would remove Gateway from the S&P 500 on July 31 because it had ranked No. 500 in market capitalization and traded below $2 a share for six straight trading days. Gateway shares, which have fallen more than 29% this year, shed 10 cents, or 5.6%, to trade at $1.70. S&P said it would replace Gateway with Realogy Corp., the spun-off real-estate unit of Cendant Corp.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 11:51:22 AM

TS down is a very rare occurance but I guess even the best has its days.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 11:50:02 AM

No charts so I will just report on the news for now.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 11:48:48 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures reversed early gains to trade lower Tuesday, as energy prices also dropped and the dollar firmed on renewed expectations the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates at its August meeting.

"Gold has failed to build on its overnight gains with the yellow metal finding strong resistance on a brief test to $624 earlier," said James Moore of TheBullionDesk.com. Moore said that gold has been capped by the stronger dollar.

The dollar rose against major counterparts after stronger-than-expected housing and consumer confidence data revived rate expectations. See currencies.

Gold for August delivery was last trading down $2.90 at $610.30 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Trading volatility will likely rise, as "traders take time off for summer vacations, reducing liquidity and leaving the market more vulnerable to sharp swings in either direction," Moore said.

Gold rose early Tuesday, apparently on the dimming of hopes for a near-term cease-fire between Lebanon and Israel, before running out of steam.

Crude-oil futures also traded lower on Tuesday. Crude for September delivery was last trading down 35 cents at $74.70 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after reaching a high of $75.30. The contract rose Monday as natural-gas futures reached a more than one-month high on expectations triple-digit temperatures across much of the U.S. would boost energy demand. See futures movers.

"Gold bullion regained some of the ground it lost on Monday after it became apparent that the U.S. will let Israel sort out the Hezbollah problem on its own timetable," said Jon Nadler, analyst at Kitco.com.

"Trading in a $10 range did not make for too much excitement early on Tuesday, as many would-be buyers want more of a convincing demonstration from gold as to its abilities to act as a protector of their assets in troubled times such as these," Nadler said.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 11:47:36 AM

DJ- President Bush: Violence In Baghdad Obscures Progress Elsewhere

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 11:44:01 AM

The New York Times (NYT) $22.20 -0.31% ... We were stopped out of the remaining short position at this morning's opening tick.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 11:42:55 AM

Gannett (GCI) $52.04 -1.81% Link ... DJ- OKs $1 Billion Share Buyback; Raises Dividend 6.9%

Gannett Co. (GCI) said Tuesday it has approved the buyback of an additional $1 billion of its common shares.

The McLean, Va.-based media company said a substantial portion of the previous $1 billion authorized for repurchase in April 2005 had been used.

Additionally, Gannett said it has increased its quarterly dividend 6.9% to 31 cents from 29 cents a share.

The dividend is payable Oct. 2 to shareholders of record as of Sept. 15, the company said.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 11:38:44 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPY $125.92

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 11:36:16 AM

I have been having so many issues with my computers lately when my TS went down of course I thought it was on my side because TS just does not fail me. The thing was everything else was working fine so I called TS support and could not get through to software support so called the trading desk. I guess TS is having some data issues and it is not on my side. So any of you out there with TS I was told to just keep trying to logon.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 11:33:26 AM

President Bush: Coalition, Iraqis Modifying Baghdad Security Plan

Additional Troops To Be Deployed In Baghdad

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 11:32:46 AM

I am still leaving the signal at 1483. If we get back above 1495, I will scratch that and go back to momentum.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 11:31:26 AM

DJ via CNN U.S.'s Rice Seeks Interim Force of 10,000 In S. Lebanon

Seeks Long-Term Force of 30,000 In S. Lebanon

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 11:30:22 AM

ER is green, SOX is green, oil is down. That spels support holding for now.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 11:29:54 AM

Big drop in oil.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 11:29:20 AM

I guess 1487.50 is holding up.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 11:19:29 AM

Newmont Mining (NEM) $50.71 -0.60% ... slips to session lows.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 11:18:21 AM

Swing trade short alert for 1/2 position in shares of Bema Gold (BGO) at the bid of $5.15, stop $5.30, target $4.80

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 11:15:34 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Monday's Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 11:04:26 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 11:00:13 AM

I think the only reason equities are not seeing a follow through on the new daily lows is that Oil is falling.

Keene Little : 7/25/2006 10:59:21 AM

We got a fast drop off this morning's high and ES is already nearly back down to its first broken uptrend line shown on my earlier chart (8:29) which is near 1262. A bounce and then another leg down as part of a 3-wave pullback would be typical here and if it takes a while it could drop down to near 1260 by this afternoon in order to test that downtrend line. From a Fib retracement viewpoint, a 38% retracement is just under 1262 and 50% is just under 1258.50.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 10:59:17 AM

Oil is really falling now and Gold breaks its overnight lows.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 10:58:38 AM

... and NOT trade.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 10:58:24 AM

This is an excellent day to clean house.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 10:56:57 AM


DJ- Xerox's 2Q net drops to $260 million, or 26c a share, while revenue edges up 1% to $3.98 billion, driven by growth of post-sale services for digital systems. Analysts were expecting EPS of 23c on revenue of $3.96 billion.

XRX $13.75 +0.75% Link ...

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 10:55:26 AM

I would like to show you a comment from the "Quarterly Review and Outlook Second Quarter 2006 From Hoisington Investment Management Company" which was John Maudlin's out of the box email from Monday.

The question of whether an economic slowdown will occur is moot since it has arrived. Coincident indicators of economic activity, such as job growth, are decelerating rapidly. Over the past three months, private sector job gains have averaged a paltry 86,000 per month, some 44% less than the average monthly increase in 2005. Real consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 70% of total GDP, is slated to expand less than 2% in the second quarter, compared with the 3.5% gain in 2005. Construction spending (residential, commercial, industrial and public) is also on track to display no growth in the second quarter. Thus, 80% of GDP is presently expanding at only half the rate registered last year.

The sharp loss of momentum in this expansion has been well signaled by the leading economic indicators. First, the Leading Economic Index (LEI), as computed by the Conference Board, has now contracted over the past six months. This is a significant development since a decline of that duration has only occurred thirteen times since the end of the Korean War. Outright recessions followed nine of those episodes, and severe slowdowns were registered in the other four episodes. It is important for investors to note that short and long term interest rates fell in the aftermath of all of the previous thirteen slumps in the LEI.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 10:55:11 AM


DJ- 3M earns $882 million, or $1.15 a share, on 7% gain in sales to $5.69 billion. Company says positive tax adjustment helped net income by 10c a share, which was partially offset by costs from antitrust action and sale of a unit.

MMM $67.12 -6.37% Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 10:53:43 AM


DJ- Chemicals giant reports net income of $975 million, or $1.04 a share. Excluding items, EPS rises to $1.01. Revenue drops 0.9% to $7.44 billion. Analysts were expecting EPS of 93c on revenue of $7.86 billion. Full-year forecast affirmed.

DD $40.02 -1.35% Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 10:52:59 AM

I am a buyer of bonds on pullbacks. The lower home resale numbers will worry Bernanke more than the higher CC numbers.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 10:52:40 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices turned lower Tuesday, sending yields higher, after news that consumer confidence was higher than expected this month and that existing homes sales in June did not decline as much as had been expected.

Indications of economic strength disappoint the fixed-income market because they subtract from the case for the Federal Reserve to back off its current round of interest rate hikes and diminish demand for low-risk instruments like bonds.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note last was down 5/32 at 100 14/32 with a yield ($TNX) of 5.07%, up from 5.04% at Monday's close. Prices and yields move in opposite directions.

The 30-year long bond was 6/32 lower at 90 20/32 with a yield ($TYX) of 5.118%.

The 2-year note was off 2/32 at 100 with a yield of 5.127%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 10:52:15 AM


DJ- U.S. chain store sales sink 2.4% in first three weeks of July compared to June, according to Redbook research, worse than the targeted 1.9% decrease. Last weeks' unadjusted sales up 2.1% compared to same week last year.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 10:51:36 AM


DJ- Fast-food firm posts 57% jump in 2Q net income to $834.1 million, or 67c a share, which includes 10c gain from Chipotle IPO. McDonald's plans to give up rest of stake within 90 days and have $5 billion-$6 billion in dividends and stock buybacks this year and next.

MCD $35.10 +0.74% Link ...

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 10:49:37 AM

What a reversal!!!

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 10:49:11 AM

VIX is telling me ES will make new daily lows.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 10:48:39 AM


DJ- U.S. Steel reports 2Q net income of $404 million, or $3.22 a share, up 62% from last year. Sales rise 15% to $4.11 billion. Company expects 'continued strong operating results' for 3Q and healthy steel consumption.

X $60.64 +1.31% Link ...

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 10:48:18 AM

Everything seems to be going down, oil, Gold, Natural Gas, Bonds and equities.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 10:48:15 AM

I have to go. The zone above 1482 is a buy. Sell below. I might have missed the entry, but the order stays at 1483, stop 1480.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 10:43:47 AM

The home resale numbers are offsetting the higher CC. But just stay away from all that noise and buy the pivot until proven otherwise.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 10:42:25 AM

OIl has droped, so that part is not working as I thought and could be supportive.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 10:41:34 AM

Patience now. 5 dma is also at 1482, so there is price magnet there.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 10:39:45 AM

Goldman Sachs (GS) $146.48 -0.26% Link ...

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 10:39:34 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long at 1483, stop 1480.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 10:39:14 AM

OK the bulls are losing it.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 10:38:59 AM

38.2% is 1487.50

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 10:38:57 AM

SPY $125.94 -0.21% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 10:38:30 AM

50% is 1482 whihc is also pivot. That is the re-entry.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 10:38:28 AM

Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) 204.77 -1.07% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 10:38:07 AM

Bulls need to not let this drop get out of control.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 10:37:43 AM


DJ- Shares drop 10% as asset manager posts weaker-than-expected fiscal 1Q results. Firm posts 38% increase in net income to $156 million, $1.08 a share, as revenue more than doubles to $1.04 billion. Wall Street expected EPS of $1.13 and revenue of $1.08 billion.

LM $84.81 -10.09% Link

(See Monday's Market Wrap)

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 10:37:17 AM

All markets are back into their previous day ranges and YM is threatening to make new daily lows.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 10:36:17 AM

Well I see that the bulls are not as strong as they were when I left.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 10:36:06 AM

The rate fears are back.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 10:34:58 AM


DJ- Defense contractor posts earnings of $580 million, or $1.34 a share, as sales rise 7.2% to $9.96 billion. Wall Street expected EPS of $1.16 and sales of $9.76 billion. Company boosts 2006 forecast. CFO says firm is tightening takeover-review process.

LMT $77.33 +0.71% Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 10:34:27 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Keene Little : 7/25/2006 10:34:13 AM

The little push higher this morning left another negative divergences so we can see this rally from Friday's low is losing steam, as it should be. A pullback should take most of today I would imagine and then I'm thinking it will set up the next rally leg. It's possible of course that the entire bounce is finished and therefore I'd be cautious about long positions. If the next larger leg down has already begun then surprises will be to the downside. But so far I'm leaning towards more upside after a pullback.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 10:33:40 AM


DJ- Telecommunications giant reports net income of $1.8 billion, or 46c a share. Excluding merger-related costs, EPS of 58c exceed estimates by a nickel. Revenue jumps 53% to $15.8 billion. AT&T plans to buy back $10 billion in stock by end of 2007.

T $28.87 +3.95% Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 10:31:55 AM

QM goes green. I saw that coming and I'm noy too happy about it. But we have support above 1494.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 10:31:22 AM


DJ- BP shares slip after it posts 2Q profit of $7.27 billion as higher oil prices more than offset impact of lower output and a $500 million charge related to Texas City refinery disaster. BP CEO Browne says he will step down end of 2008.

BP $70.07 +0.47% Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 10:30:08 AM


DJ- Parent company of Kraft and Philip Morris reports net income of $2.71 billion, or $1.29 a share. Excluding charges, earnings of $1.41 top analysts' estimate by 4c. Net revenue rises 4% to $25.77 billion. Altria raises 2006 earnings forecast.

MO $79.82 +0.41% Link ...

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 10:29:40 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1497.50, lower stop to 1493.50.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 10:29:08 AM

I need to adjust a hair.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 10:28:33 AM


DJ- Shares of the world's largest shipping carrier drop 13% as the company projects 3Q earnings below analysts' estimates and sees full-year profit growth at the low end of its forecast. UPS posts 2Q net income of $1.06 billion, or 97c a share, as revenue increases 15% to $11.74 billion. Analysts expected EPS of $1 and revenue of $11.61 billion.

UPS $69.33 -13.42% Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 10:28:25 AM

ES 1269 is holding, but note also te rotation out of DOW and into techs. I commented on that possibility yesterday as we move out of defensive.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 10:27:46 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1497.50, stop 1494.50.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 10:23:54 AM

BUt we should hold above 1495. ES 1269 is also support.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 10:25:19 AM

QM bid. I was afraid of that. CC up, oil up.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 10:21:11 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 10:20:30 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1498.75, stop 1494.75.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 10:13:33 AM

Watch rates now. Back to the old fears.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 10:11:38 AM

I have to leave for a while here.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 10:11:22 AM

Oil breaks its overnight lows which is certainly helping the bullish in the equities.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 10:10:43 AM

Time for a little pullback, it seems.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 10:10:30 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 10:10:16 AM

Even AMD up 3%.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 10:10:02 AM

GOOG drops while all the other stocks that have been underperforming find a bid. They are buying valuation.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 10:08:38 AM

SOX approaching 400

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 10:08:17 AM

NVDA is on a tear.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 10:07:36 AM

VIX plunges and breaks is PDL confirming ES's break of its PDH.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 10:06:57 AM

target will be 1507 at first.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 10:06:16 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumer confidence strengthened a bit in July, the Conference Board said Tuesday. The consumer confidence index rose to 106.5 in July from a revised 105.4 in June. The gain was unexpected. Economists forecast the index to slip to 103.9 in July from the initial June estimate of 105.7. The present situation index rose to 133.0 from 132.2, while the expectations index edged up to 88.8 from 87.5. Expectations of inflation one year in the future held steady in July.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 10:05:22 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1499.50, stop 1497.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 10:05:01 AM

Darn, tthey are pushing abve 1269 and I am out...

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 10:05:00 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Sales of existing homes fell 1.3% in June to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 6.62 million, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday.

Economists were expecting a decline to 6.58 million, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch.

The report shows a continued weakening in the housing market, with inventories up sharply while prices are softening.

The inventory of unsold homes rose to a record 3.725 million, a 6.8 month supply at the June sales rate, the highest since July 1997.

The median price has risen 0.9% in the past year to $231,000. It's the weakest price growth in 10 years.

Sales of existing homes are down 8.9% in the past year.

"I hope we are hitting bottom," said David Lereah, chief economist for the private real estate trade group, which is predicting sales of about 6.60 million this year.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 10:04:02 AM

All markets have now broken their PDH except YM.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 10:04:00 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 10:03:27 AM

Watch ES 1269.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 10:03:24 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 10:03:10 AM

Now the bulls have the reins - AD line +854 and AD volume rising. I guess the markets were waiting for the 10:00 reports.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 10:02:28 AM

NQQ finds support above 10 dma. Very interesting iof it holds and confirmation the trend is changing. ES at 50 dma.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 10:02:07 AM

* Home price gains lowest in 10 years
* June home inventory 6.8 months, 9-year high
* June existing home median price up 0.9% y-o-y
* June existing home inventories up 3.8% to 3.725 mln
* June home sales above 6.58 mln expected
* June existing home sales fall 1.3% to 6.62 mln
* Consumer inflation expectations hold steady in july
* July consumer confidence above consensus 103.9
* July consumer confidence up to 106.5 vs rev 105.4 june

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 10:01:50 AM

+3.5 partial

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 10:00:45 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1495, raise stop to 1494.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 10:00:14 AM

Chicago Merc (CME) ... Earnings Press Release Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 9:58:24 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1495, stop 1493.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 9:58:25 AM

Chicago Mercantile (CME) $447.00 -3.87% Link ... notably weak.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 9:56:32 AM

QQV is green adn TRINNQ above 1. I'm not sure about all this and in that case, I wait.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 9:55:28 AM

Aboce 1495, bears could get a surprise.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 9:54:58 AM

ER heading up, YM heading down. ES and NQ don't know which way to go.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 9:54:10 AM

Marc - I agree.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 9:53:51 AM

ER breaks its PDH.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 9:53:42 AM

I'm not sure this is a good day to trade.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 9:53:41 AM

Now the TICKS chime in at +800.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 9:53:12 AM

Well, here comes the reversal. R will be 1495.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 9:53:03 AM

ER is once again testing its PDH.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 9:52:09 AM

Feels like the markets are waiting for something. We have reports out at 10:00 but they are hardly earth moving reports.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 9:51:21 AM

Waiting for QM to get a little weaker.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 9:50:15 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 9:49:40 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1492, stop 1489.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 9:49:06 AM

Bulls are now coming back to life and have pulled the AD line back to -234. AD volume is mostly flat.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 9:48:49 AM

Shell Cda 2Q Net Dn On Higher Costs,Lower Output At Oil Sands Project

DJ- Shell Canada Ltd. (SHC.T), a Calgary-based integrated oil and gas company, posted lower second-quarter earnings on higher maintenance costs and lower production associated with the first major scheduled turnaround of the Athabasca Oil Sands Project.

It said its second-quarter net income was C$475 million or 57 Canadian cents a share compared with C$526 million or 63 Canadian cents a year earlier.

The Thomson First Call mean earnings estimate for Shell's second quarter was 43 Canadian cents a share.

Revenue rose to C$3.75 billion from C$3.39 billion last year.

It noted rising costs and schedule pressures on the Mackenzie Gas Project and Shell's Niglintgak field development have necessitated a re-examination of project cost estimates. It is also evaluating the expansion of its manufacturing capabilities in Eastern Canada to maximize value from increased bitumen production.

TSE:SHC $38.84 (unch) ...

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 9:47:55 AM

Gold has broken the upward green trendline but the red trendline from November 2005 is still in tact. Yesterday I bailed on long GLD position and I continue to think I was early. A close below the red trendline should have been my exit. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 9:43:50 AM

We were triggered ealier and had a run to 1502, but the open is seeing some pressure. SOX and SMH are green howvere and I would not be surprised to see a reversal.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 9:43:43 AM

VIX to new daily highs but the TRIN is making new daily lows. Yesterday was a day to get long and stay long but today so far is a time to sit on your hands.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 9:43:02 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/25/2006 9:42:50 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 9:42:25 AM

AD line now slips to -502 but AD volume is barely below 0. No direction yet.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 9:39:48 AM

All markets except YM to new daily lows.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 9:39:07 AM

Remember the 10:00 reports:

10a.m. June Existing Home Sales. Previous: -1.2%.

10a.m. July Conf. Board Consumer Confidence Index. Consensus: 104. Previous: 105.7.

10a.m. July Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Previous: 4.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 9:33:15 AM

I expect PDHs will be resistance today.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 9:32:27 AM

VIX opens mid range to its PDR.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 9:31:57 AM

AD line is a neutral -87.

Jeff Bailey : 7/25/2006 9:31:08 AM

Bearish swing trade stop alert ... for The New York Times (NYT) $22.37 +0.44% ...

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 9:25:15 AM

All the equity markets break their overnight lows but not by much so the bulls still have the reins.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 9:23:55 AM

NQ is the #1 reason I am so bearish and the chart speaks for itself. So I guess even if I see ES, YM and even ER make bullish moves as long as this chart stays as bearish as it is I will remain bearish or at best on the sidelines. Link

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 9:19:22 AM

In yesterday's analysis of ER I stated that the MACD had not yet crossed so the MACD in essence did not have a divergence. Well it still has not truly crossed (my bearishness is showing isn't it) and any decline today could make it a kiss and not a cross. ER has not yet made it to the resistance from the May 24th lows and has a long way to go before it sees its major MAs. This chart is not a bullish as ES and YM. Link

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 9:14:28 AM

The resistance zone on the YM chart encompasses the 200EMA and the 50 EMA giving this zone all the more importance. If I was not convinced we were in a bear market I would be looking at this chart as bullish. So maybe I need to put the bear market scenario aside and just read what is in front of me. If anyone is into bearish positions from my comments yesterday I would stay there until the bulls prove they have the "right stuff" and keep a stop close by. Like I stated in my last post that darn MACD divergence cannot be ignored. Link

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 9:07:40 AM

The bulls need to show their stuff today and break through the resistance zone I have shown here with the two red trendlines which is also where the 50EMA resides. ES has not traded above its 50EMA since May 12th and a close above this MA would certainly change my perspective. I was looking at these charts last night and that darn bullish MACD divergence on all the charts cannot be ignored. I was bearish going into Monday's trading but I am wondering if the bulls do have some steam left. I still think we have transitioned to a bear market but the bulls could stage a short term rally that would really suck in a lot of retail investors before the bear market really starts to show its claws. Link

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 9:00:49 AM

McDonald's (MCD) last was 1.3% higher at $35.30. The fast food empire had a nearly 60% increase in quarterly profit, due to across-the-board growth in the U.S. and the fast-food giant's best European results in more than a decade.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 9:00:18 AM

Dateline MarketWatch. Shares of Altria Group Inc. (MO) last were 76 cents higher at $80.25 in premarket electronic trade. The company reported a higher second-quarter profit, helped by an increase in domestic tobacco market share and strength in its food business. It also raised its full-year profit projection.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 8:58:05 AM

Equity markets are now all testing overnight lows. Not a big deal considering the narrow range they all traded in during the overnight session.

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 8:56:28 AM

Tbonds peeked above its PDH but has now retreated back to its previous day range, nothing too much here.

Oil traded almost all night above its PDH and should put pressure on the equities today.

Gold broke its PDH but has retreated back to its PDR just like the bonds.

Natural Gas broke its PDH and has stayed there. Nat Gas has had a nice rally off its July 21st lows. Link

Jane Fox : 7/25/2006 8:50:57 AM

Good morning all. Previous day highs pretty much defined resistance overnight except for ER's double top which peeked above its PDH. Other than that little foray though it was a narrow sideways session within the top 25% quadrant. Link

Keene Little : 7/25/2006 8:29:30 AM

We've had a very quiet overnight session in equities whereas bonds have been a little more active (rallying off last night's low). I'm hoping we'll see a pullback from yesterday's high in equities and as this ES chart shows, resistance was found at 1269 which is where the downtrend line from July 3rd was located and it's the previous high on the 19th. Link

A pullback today to test the previous downtrend line, currently near 1262, should set up a nice long play. I've drawn a preliminary parallel up-channel based on the lows since the 18th and between the top of that channel and Fib projection I see a potential upside target at 1281.50 and above.

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