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Keene Little : 7/26/2006 11:07:13 PM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 10:37:44 PM

For what it may be worth ... YHOO gapped down roughly 20% after recent earnings. Bar Chart Link and PnF Link

BIDU goes out at $91.97 (say $92.00) and 20% decline from there would be $18.40. $92-$18.40= $73.60.

I paid $1.95 for the Aug $75 Puts priot to the close. $75 - $1.95 = $73.05.

This was a "coin toss" in my opinion. Ready to pick up the coins and put them in my pocket if BIDU opens last tick of $78.53 on the spike in volatility.

Bearish vertical count to $79.00 will grow if Os build. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 10:12:37 PM

Japan May Need to Up Sales Tax to 10% by Early 2010s

DJ- Japanese Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said Thursday the country may need to hike its consumption tax to 10% in the first half of the next decade.

Speaking on a talk show on Fuji Television, Tanigaki added that the government may need to look into increasing the number of people who fall into the high-income tax bracket.

The finance minister is set to announce his bid to run in the September election to choose the successor of Prime Minister Koizumi in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.

He has already distinguished himself from the current front-runner in the party's election race, Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe, by suggesting he will not visit the war-related Yasukuni Shrine if he becomes prime minister.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 10:09:48 PM

China to Introduce 1%-3% Cap Gains Tax on Secondary Market Property Sales

DJ- China's State Administration of Taxation will introduce a 1% to 3% capital gains tax on sales of residential property in the secondary market from Aug. 1.

The tax bureau didn't specify how the tax would be applied in a statement posted on its Web site (www.chinatax.gov.cn) dated July 18. It wasn't clear when the statement was posted, but the rule was reported by state media Thursday.

China already imposes a 5% tax on property sold less than five years after it was purchased.

The capital gains tax is the latest of several measures taken by the government to cool speculation in the booming sector.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 10:06:46 PM


DJ- Goldman Sachs is in talks to buy a 14-story Embassy Suites hotel, movie theater and retail complex in downtown Manhattan, next to its future headquarters. Firm is placing bet on recovery of area, sluggish after 9/11.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 10:05:43 PM


DJ- SEC backs away from controversial plans to require companies to reveal salaries for highly paid "nonexecutive" employees - a move that should appease entertainment companies and financial firms, who were most opposed to the rule.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 10:04:53 PM


DJ- SEC Chairman Christopher Cox says the agency isn't pursuing "innocent mistakes" in its probe of stock-options backdating, offering signs that the SEC is aware that some stock options grants may not cross the line into fraud.

OI Technical Staff : 7/26/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 8:08:34 PM

iShares DJ Trans Avg. (NYSE:IYT) $78.47 -2.52% Link ... Pretty close match with TRAN Link in U.S. Market Watch.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 6:34:31 PM

I'm holding this one because SPX is staying above 200 dma and NQ held up against the all important test of 5 and 10 dma. Trade is +8 now so if you are not comfortable, feel free to book it. I will assess overnight. Target is still 1524/1528.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 6:36:17 PM

Trade Recap
Day: NQ +3 ($60 per contract) Week to date: NQ + 43.50 ($870 per contract)
Open positions: Long NQ 1488, stop 1481
Long NVDA 17.5 Jan calls at 3.50 (now trading at 4.70), stop 18 underlying. I might sell some August calls against it when we get to 21, 50 dma.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 6:27:42 PM

YM 5-minute interval (recap) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 6:18:32 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Today's Activity


Swing trade sold a covered call with one (1) of the Goldman Sachs GS Aug $155 Calls (GPY-HK) at the bid of $1.10. (covered against the GS Oct $140 Call GS-JH)

YM Futures

Day trade shorted the YM at 11,121 (Stop= 11,140 : Tgt= 11,052) and lowest trade from profile was 11,104 before getting stopped out. (-19 pts, or $95/contract)

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 6:04:26 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 6:01:40 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 5:15:01 PM

Yahoo! (YHOO) $27.08 +0.48% ... $27.00 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 5:14:28 PM

Google (GOOG) $385.50 -0.99% .... $384.50 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 5:11:33 PM

BIDU $78.00 ... after-hours low ... $75.00 on the button.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 5:05:40 PM

Baidu Earnings Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 5:04:40 PM

BIDU $76.50

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 5:02:05 PM

BIDU $80.23

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 5:01:42 PM

"Sun just coming up" in China ... shouldn't have earnings until later this evening (09:00 PM EDT)

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 5:00:19 PM

BIDU $86.11 (alert) ... getting crazy

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 4:46:01 PM

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar

08:30 AM EDT June Durable Goods Orders (Consensus +1.9%)

08:30 AM EDT 07/22 Weekly Jobless Claims (Consensus 310K)

10:00 AM EDT June New Home Sales (Consensus 1.16M)

10:00 AM EDT June Help Wanted Index (Consensus 34)

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 4:35:18 PM

Amazon.com (AMZN) $26.26 -21.82% ... bear's will say "thank you." .... for now.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 4:33:14 PM

QQQQ goes out at $36.59 -0.08% ... that's two (2) sessions in a row the QQQQ has not been able to hold above its 07/19/06 close of $36.62.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 4:30:38 PM

Brazil's Central Bank Buys Dollars at BRL2.194

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 4:18:05 PM

Akamai Tech (AKAM) $30.00 -6.19% Link ... jumps to $32.28.

Consensus ($+0.18)

Earnings Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 4:15:13 PM

Anheuser Busch (BUD) $48.35 +1.51% Link ... ticks higher at $48.35

Earnings Release Link

Consensus ($+0.76)

Keene Little : 7/26/2006 3:55:05 PM

ES has now dropped below the bottom of its wedge which is the uptrend line from July 21st. Without reaching the top of the wedge or its Fib target it's hard to say whether the bounce is over or if we're just going to see a larger sideways move. In either case I do not like the upside from here and would prefer the short side if picking a trade.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 3:53:27 PM

Consensus on BIDU is $0.18 per share. Won't report until 09:00 PM EDT.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 3:46:19 PM

AMZN "makes sense" to EBAY's action from a couple months ago.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 3:45:52 PM

GLW "makes sense" to MMM's warning.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 3:43:36 PM

Internet Initiative (IIJI) $7.00 -3.44% Link ... eats through a $6.98 offer for the better part of the afternoon.

Roughly 14-times earnings here (more of an Internet Serv. Provider).

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 3:40:38 PM

My "common sense" gets the better of me. Took a SPECULATIVE BIDU Aug $75 Put (BDQ-TO) at $1.95/contract.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 3:30:50 PM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $93.00 +3.6% Link ... a "reasonable" 300-times

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 3:29:09 PM

Google (GOOG) $387.14 -0.57% Link .... trades roughly 56-times earnings.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 3:21:34 PM

BIDU $92.31 +2.80% ... session highs... WEEK highs.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 3:20:27 PM

YHOO rose into the close on 07/18/06 and volume built the final 30-minutes of trade.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 3:18:25 PM

I have NO OPINION, or DIRECTIONAL BIAS on Baidu.com (BIDU) $91.25 +1.64% into tonight's earnings report.

"Coin toss" to me.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 3:03:11 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 2:58:20 PM

Corning (GLW) $18.58 -14.13% Link ... unraveling

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 2:50:49 PM

Natural Gas stong again today ... $7.00 has been somewhat of a psychological level of resistance.

Keene Little : 7/26/2006 2:47:59 PM

The choppiness of today's climb is only further convincing me that ES is likely in the last leg of an ascending wedge. With an upside target around 1282 I'll be watching for a short play to set up there. For now the bulls are slowly grinding this higher and it's too early to short it.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 2:47:08 PM

QQQQ $36.82 +0.50% ... challenges last week's highs.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 2:45:12 PM

5-year now 4.983% .... mid-point of intra-day trade looks 5.00%

FF currently 5.25%

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 2:36:49 PM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $62.29 +1.20% ... lurching higher.

Re-flation look?

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 2:34:58 PM

BIX.X 381.30 -0.03% ... holding tough despite FF at 5.25 and Treasury YIELDS continuing their recent declines.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 2:28:22 PM

"Bad Tick" in the SPY to $126.14

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 2:27:18 PM

10 year 5.024% ....

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 2:25:17 PM

Yesterday I sold long some "junk bond" PHF (bought $9.40) right at these levels $9.97 with thought Treasury yield might RISE.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 2:23:54 PM

5-year 4.975%

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 2:23:24 PM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) alert ... 5.030%

SPY $127.28

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 2:17:27 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 2:11:25 PM

02:09 PM EDT Market Watch (Beige Book) found at this Link ... getting this. It isn't "just the economy," but what might be revealed about future FOMC policy.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 2:08:19 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 380.33 -0.29% ...

10-year (TNX.X) 50.38, or 5.038%

Keene Little : 7/26/2006 2:07:39 PM

Watching ES try to stay inside its ascending wedge has been agony--it's constantly threatening to fall out, including right now. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 2:05:57 PM

Beige Book (headlines)

US Econ Grows, But Rate Appears To Slow

6 Of 12 Fed Banks Note Slower Econ Growth

Housing Mkt Continues Cooling In Most Areas

Comml Real Estate Picks Up In Some Distrcts

Labor Mkts Tightened Somewhat Further

Wage, Price Increases 'Modest On Net'

Energy Costs Continue Upward Pressure On Prices

Retail Sales Slightly Weaker,Mfg Activity Strong

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 2:02:24 PM

Fed Beige Book at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 2:00:49 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPY 127.01 : YM 11,150

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 1:49:49 PM

That's something worth noting too ... yesterday's plethora of sell program premiums didn't budge the majors.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 1:48:26 PM

Little buy program there ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 1:28:52 PM

SPX NH/NL 17:13

Yesterday's tally was 29:10

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 1:30:11 PM

01:15 Internals found at this Link

NYSE NH/NL 10-day ratio should be "green" at this point, but needs a 36.00% reading to reverse back up. Should get that based on recent 5-day NH/NL readings (unless today were a major reversal).

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 1:17:35 PM

01:15 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 1:13:38 PM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $90.03 +0.26% ... look at this action. Day low $85.55 just reversed to $90.87.

Think of this action in relation to AMZN's trade (internet retail), and recent YHOO.

I see some "this makes too much sense" trades getting blown out of the water.

AMZN action "makes sense" relative to what we saw in EBAY.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 1:10:00 PM

Thoughts/observations: Yesterday I was monitoring the SPY action pretty close, and several stocks that had been "drilled lower" in recent sessions.

Yesterday, I felt there were 3 different times when buyers could have just "given up," as they have in recent weeks, but didn't. This morning, (say YM WEEKLY R1) they didn't give up either.

(more later)

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 1:03:49 PM

Distribution Curve for Transports/Non Air found at this Link ... Yesterday's action had UPS triggering some notable weakness in the TRANSPORTS.

Dorsey/Wright has UPS and FDX as "aerospace/airline", as they do transport air and ground. I placed UPS and FDX in the above weekly distribution curve to get a sense of where these two would reside within TRAN.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 12:43:40 PM

07/21 to 07/25/06 Sector Bell Curve comparison found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 12:41:54 PM

I have to leave for the day. Stop stays at 1482.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 12:38:39 PM

Watch out for PP test of support (1493.75).

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 12:34:27 PM

NQ is now the percentage gainer leader.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 12:30:37 PM

We should get to NQ 1524/1528 by the end of the week. That is now the revised upward target.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 12:17:14 PM

QQQQ $36.62 (unch) ... reclaims WEEKLY R1/DAILY Pivot

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 12:13:12 PM

YM 11,137 .... popped to 11,149. It would now take weakness back below WEEKLY R1 to get me anywhere close to bearish.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 12:12:39 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1488, lower stop to 1482.
Let it ride now, worth the extra cushion, since we bagged 3 points today. This puts us well above the +40 mark for the week and we have more gains to come.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 12:10:02 PM

SOX green. Funds are buying the dips, no one wants to miss the party.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 12:09:30 PM

Yahoo! (YHOO) $27.32 +1.37% ... whips back higher

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 12:08:51 PM

YM short stop alert 11,140 ... could get a "squeeze" going again above 11,146

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 12:09:22 PM

If we hold pivot once again, I dare say we have a confirmed medieum term trend change. SPX above 200 dma, ES above 50 dma (well above), with a test today as support. NQ holds 10 dma and we should see 1524 20 dma soon.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 12:06:49 PM

Bears are wondering why just shorting no longer works.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 12:05:49 PM

My gut was right. Ok, here is the pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 12:04:48 PM

This is "the test" for sellers in my opinion.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 12:02:54 PM

YM ... comes UP to MONTHLY Pivot 11,132

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 12:02:08 PM

Reminder Alert Later today at 02:00 PM EDT we get the anecdotal Fed Beige Book report.

Provides a look at how the Federal Reserve branches view the economy in their area. It is produced two weeks before the monetary policy meetings of the FOMC, who uses the book's anecdotal evidence to help determine the pat for interest rates.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 11:56:30 AM


DJ- Aerospace company reports net loss of $160 million, or 21c a share, on more than $1 billion in charges, including steep cost to settle probe into its defense contracting. Revenue rises 2% to $14.99 billion.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 11:55:14 AM

This is a better chart, 60 mn NQ with H/L last Tuesday. The 50% there was support all day today and yesterday, so it is key: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 11:55:08 AM

Dow 30 (Price Weighted Index) components at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 11:50:59 AM

NQ 30 mn with fibs: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 11:50:07 AM

If this trade is a new entry for you and you did not pick up +4 off the low, you might want to use a tighter stop at 1485.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 11:50:29 AM

We keep holding 1487.50, and if QM sneezes a bit, we will get back to pivot.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 11:49:00 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1488, stop 1483.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 11:47:43 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 11:47:04 AM

I hate it when I let the crowd sidetrack me.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 11:46:33 AM

38.2% of this entire rally keeps hoilding. We have not even tested 50% at 1482. This is bullish. Why am I out??

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 11:44:43 AM

I am going to scalp back in

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 11:44:10 AM

I am going against my gut feeling by exiting this long, so I hope I didn;t do a mistake.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 11:41:32 AM

I am going to sit it out for now.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 11:41:03 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 11:40:54 AM

QM bid and this could be too much headwind.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 11:37:35 AM

YM 5-minute interval chart at this Link ... DAILY Pivot Retracement (green) with R1/S1 dashed red/green.

Keene Little : 7/26/2006 11:34:32 AM

With the Trannies getting beat up so badly (down 3.4% today), it may be forecasting what's going to happen to the broader market. That could mean that the ascending wedge idea I showed for SPX will lead to a precipitous decline. The securities broker index (XBD) is also down 1.4% and that's been a good forecaster for the broader market. Starting to feel "more immediately bearish" here which means a new high, especially with any negative divergences, should be a good shorting opportunity.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 11:30:26 AM

Going to be tough, but if bulls can close SPX a second day above 200 dma (1265.75), look out above.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 11:28:34 AM

SPX at 200 dma.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 11:27:41 AM

That ES 50 dma support was quite solid. Better trade than NQ.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 11:25:17 AM

This day would have been an instant 20 point sell-off in NQ last week. Greed has taken over fear, at least for now it seems.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 11:22:57 AM

YM Short entry alert short the YM here 11,121, stop 11,140, target 11,052

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 11:20:52 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Tuesday's Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 11:13:39 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1484, raise stop to 1481.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 11:12:39 AM

MQ 74.50, That was good hedge

Keene Little : 7/26/2006 11:11:57 AM

ES is still holding above its uptrend line so as long as this morning's low holds we should see this work its way to new highs. Any break to a new low negates the ascending wedge pattern but until then I'd stay with the long side.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 11:10:33 AM

We are in and should get that 1490/1492 hit.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 11:10:19 AM

lower low with bull div

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 11:05:29 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 10:58:49 AM


DJ- Number of applications for mortgages to buy homes drops 2.4% in week, matching the three-year low reached four weeks ago, the Mortgage Bankers Association says. Applications for home-purchase loans are down about 20% in the past year.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:58:30 AM

I have to step away

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:58:19 AM

It's a stretch here to think that we might reverse today. I doubt it. But at the end of the day, if we close above 1485, bears would not have taken over. The problem is what kind of flush we get here.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:56:58 AM

Corrected that link, it was an old chart. NOw the chart is real-time. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:56:19 AM

NQ daily, see how 5 and 10 dma converge at 1482, must hold: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 10:54:57 AM


DJ- Electronics-markets operator swings to 2Q net income of $31 million or 52c a share, 3c above Thomson First Call estimate. Revenue nearly doubles to $73.6 million. Results aided by record futures and OTC volume.

ICE $57.80 -3.90% Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:53:02 AM

We should get a run to 1490.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 10:52:29 AM


DJ- GlaxoSmithKline says robust sales from its flagship pharmaceutical operations help boost 2Q pretax profit to $3.5 billion. GSK now expects EPS to grow 12% in constant currency terms.

GSK $55.36 -2.72% Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:52:23 AM

QQV has R at 5 dma

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:50:35 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1484, raise stop to 1480.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:49:21 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1484, stop 1479.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:48:51 AM


Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:48:46 AM

Back above PDL.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:48:16 AM

Watch ES 1266.50.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:47:49 AM

QM bids, and we should see NQ 1482/1483

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 10:48:18 AM


DJ- Phelps Dodge 2Q net falls to $471.1 million, or $2.32 a share. Period factors in a $514.6 million after-tax charge for mark-to-market adjustments, while sales jump by nearly $1 billion and operating income rises six times.

PD $76.75 -3.37% Link ... sure selling against that bearish resitance trend.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 10:45:21 AM


DJ- HMO posts net income of $751.2 million, or $1.17 a share, as revenue climbs 27% to $14.15 billion amid strong gains from premiums and administrative fees. Analysts forecasted EPS of $1.14 a share.

WLP $76.64 -1.71% Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:44:11 AM

MSFT bounces

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 10:43:51 AM


DJ- First of major U.S. oil companies to release 2Q results posts net of $5.19 billion, or $3.09 a share, as revenue increases 13% to $47.1 billion, boosted by acquisition and increase in income from exploration and production.

COP $68.74 +1.88% Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:43:37 AM

Here comes.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:43:24 AM

ES has exact support, once again, at 50 dma.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:42:38 AM

ES above 50 dma.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:42:30 AM

so far.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 10:42:05 AM


Shares rise more than 2% after General Motors' 2Q net loss widens to $3.2 billion, or $5.62 a share. Excluding items, most notably a charge of $3.7 billion related to its restructuring activities, the auto maker posts an adjusted profit of $1.2 billion, or $2.03 a share, as revenue jumps 12% to a record $54.4 billion. Analysts expected EPS of 55c on revenue of $42.59 billion.

GM $31.50 +2.70% Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:41:49 AM

Bulls are strong against all ths bad news.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:40:39 AM

I don;t like that gasoline bid.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:40:28 AM

Let's wait a sec.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:40:17 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:38:39 AM

QM drops, but gasoline (QU) is holding a real bid.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:35:14 AM

QM is dropping

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:35:07 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1486.50, stop 1481.50.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 10:33:40 AM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 4,348.87 -3.10% ... move below rising 200-day SMA (4,391)

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:33:31 AM

Watch QM 74

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:32:43 AM


Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:32:35 AM


Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 10:32:07 AM

EIA Distillate Inventory Up 800,000 barrels

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 10:31:41 AM

EIA Gasoline Inventory Down 3.2 million barrels

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:31:25 AM

s1 is 1482

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 10:31:21 AM

EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Unchanged

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:30:42 AM

There is oil pressure.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:30:35 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:30:23 AM

watch QM

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:29:30 AM

Got caught in the scalp zone and wasted a point. PDL lows held and that should have been it for entries.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:28:46 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1487, stop 1481.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 10:27:50 AM


DJ- Shares slide 11% as railroad operator's 2Q net falls 12% to $375 million, or 89c a share, from a year-ago quarter that included a tax gain. Revenue rises 11% to $2.39 billion. Analysts forecast EPS of 92c and revenue of $2.39 billion.

NSC $39.90 -11.73% Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:26:40 AM


Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:25:27 AM

S1 coming?

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:25:12 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Tab Gilles : 7/26/2006 10:24:30 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) MUR announced - stock down $52/$53 range.


Murphy Oil profit drops but beats expectations Higher crude prices boost revenue, offset production, refining setbacks By Jim Jelter, MarketWatch Last Update: 7:30 PM ET Jul 25, 2006

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Murphy Oil Corp. reported Tuesday a sharp 39% drop in second-quarter net earnings, clipped by lower output from its oil fields and refining operations. Nevertheless, results for the El Dorado, Ark., company managed to surpass Wall Street expectations as soaring crude oil prices pushed revenue 29% higher than year-ago levels. After the closing bell, Murphy Oil Corporation said net income in the three months ended June 30 totaled $214 million, or $1.13 a share, down from $348 million, or $1.85 a share, a year earlier.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call were looking for earnings of 92 cents a share. The tumble in earnings is partly explained by a one-time gain of $106.8 million, or 57 cents a share, in the second quarter of 2005 from the sale of ageing offshore production properties in the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, the 2006 quarter was hurt by downtime and unrecoverable repair costs at the company's Meraux refinery in Louisiana. The plant was among those severely battered when Hurricane Katrina hit the Louisiana coast last August. Despite the setbacks, Murphy said second-quarter revenue rose to $3.80 billion from $2.95 billion a year ago, helped by lower crude oil exploration costs and oil prices that averaged $54.10 a barrel compared with $43.10 a barrel a year ago. This more than offset the negative impact of lower oil and gas production volumes, Murphy said. "Total crude oil and gas liquids production was 90,695 barrels per day in the second quarter of 2006 compared to 111,030 barrels per day in the 2005 quarter, with the decrease primarily attributable to a combination of lower production at the Terra Nova field offshore Eastern Canada and in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico," the company said. Natural gas sales fell to 87 million cubic feet a day during the quarter from 107 million a year ago, mainly due to the June sale of fields in the Gulf of Mexico. Murphy said its refining and marketing operations racked up a loss of $13.2 million in the 2006 second quarter, sharply reversing a $67.4 million profit in the 2005 quarter. Repair outages at the Meraux refinery for the first half of the quarter were blamed for most of the quarter's earnings decline. The company said unrecoverable hurricane-related repair work at the plant totaled $26.5 million. "Looking into the third quarter, we currently expect earnings to range from 50 cents to 70 cents per diluted share," Claiborne Deming, Murphy's president and CEO said in a statement. The estimate includes an $18 million tax charge, or 10 cents a share, associated with a 10% increase in taxes on production profits in Britain's North Sea, enacted July 19. Overall production for the quarter is seen averaging 90,000 barrels a day, with sales averaging 83,000 barrels a day. Shares of the El Dorado, Ark.-based company closed ahead of the report with a 73-cent gain at $55.14.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:23:33 AM

OIl inventories coming.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:22:49 AM

Back in the trade for now. THere is thatrisk to 1482/1483, but by the same token, we are holding on to yesterday lows.

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 10:22:39 AM

Looking at a bearish play (puts) on Expeditors Int. (EXPD) $45.31 -2.30% Link ... earnings due out Aug 1 before the bell (consensus $0.26)

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:22:07 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1486, stop 1481.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:18:20 AM

There is strong ma convergence support at 1483.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:17:56 AM

We will re-enter at 1483 support if it holds.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:17:40 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 10:17:29 AM

Goldman Sachs (GS) $147.48 -0.68% ... DAILY Interval Bar chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot Retracement and Aug $155 Covered Call Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/26/2006 10:14:21 AM

Alert: Stop moved up on NVDA Jan 17.50 calls to 18.50 underlying.

Keene Little : 7/26/2006 10:13:59 AM

ES (and SPX) is now down to its uptrend line from Friday's low (1268.50) so it should bounce now and start heading higher up towards the top of its ascending wedge at 1284 (if that's what we have playing out here).

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 10:05:20 AM

Chicago Fed Natl. Activity Index +0.34 in June vs. -0.14% in May

3-Month Avg. +0.11 June, Flat From May

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 10:02:35 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 9:59:37 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 9:48:56 AM

Oh My! ... Black & Decker (BDK) $69.50 -9.25% Link ... Reuters Earnings Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 9:42:19 AM

Swing trade sell covered call alert ... let's sell one (1) of the Goldman Sachs' GS Aug $155 Calls (GPY-HK) at the bid of $1.10 ($1.10 x $1.25)

GS $147.51 -0.65% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/26/2006 9:39:22 AM


Keene Little : 7/26/2006 8:40:01 AM

This SPX chart shows the same potential setup that I showed for ES late yesterday. The internal price action (3-wave moves) is giving me the feeling that we might be seeing an ascending wedge developing for the last leg up for a 3-wave bounce from the July 18th low. If true this could be a very bearish setup. Link

The reason it could be bearish is because the 3-wave bounce from July 18th might be followed by a continuation of the decline from May in which case the next leg down will be very fast and strong. For that reason it would be worth considering a longer term short play if price plays out the way I've depicted.

But, the alternative is that the A-B-C bounce from July 18th is merely the start of a very choppy summer rally (the 3-wave move could make up a larger degree 1st leg up of a bigger A-B-C bounce). This is the reason I've been saying we'll need to see a decisive break below the June low to confirm the "more immediately bearish" scenario. Until then it would be better to make shorter term plays--take money off the table regularly on profitable plays in case the market turns around and takes it away from you.

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