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Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 11:07:18 PM

Index Matrix for Friday at this Link

Today's weakness in the BIX.X caught me offguard a bit. I did hear a "blurb" on CNBC regarding some analyst downgrading the group, saying they could come under margin pressure.

THIS MAKES SENSE as it relates to where Fed Funds are at, and look at that 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X)

What is driving the YIELD lower (yes, buying, but why such a hunger?) ... Flight to quality/safety? RAPIDLY SLOWING ECONOMY? Little INFLATION?

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 10:40:51 PM

Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) Link up 93 points, or +0.62% at 15,273

Session High/Low so far 15,276/15,151

Country's plethora of economic releases (Actual/Forecast/Previous) Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 10:31:44 PM

Friday's Economic Reports

08:30 AM EDT: Q2 Gross Domestic Product q/q (Consensus +3.2%)/(Prior +5.6%)

08:30 AM EDT: Q2 GDP Deflator q/q (Consensus +3.5%)/(Prior +3.1%)

08:30 AM EDT: Q2 Employment Cost Index q/q (Consensus +0.8%)/(Prior +0.06%)

09:45 AM EDT: July Consumer Sentiment-Revised (Consensus unchanged @ 83.0)

The GDP Deflator will be closely watched by the Fed and traders (especially bond traders that have driven yields lower with their buying) as the GDP Deflator hopes to measure the implied rate of inflation for all economic activity. The deflator is used to calculate the difference between nominal and real GDP. Many see the deflator as the economy's broadest measure of inflation.

Keene Little : 7/27/2006 10:01:55 PM

Friday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 7/27/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 6:10:00 PM

James Cramer simply ruins a trade I was looking for at $64.00. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 5:32:32 PM

The NQ daily candles look weird and doji-like due to after hours activity, but the QQQQ chart is much more basic, holding 10 and 5 dma, however one negative close today: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 5:19:15 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity


Swing trade shorted 1/2 position in Expeditors Intl. (EXPD) at the offer of $44.90. Stop currently $47.50 with target of $38.00.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 5:27:55 PM

I should have profiled up some ES at 50 dma (1267)as well, but you got the idea earlier. SOX closes above the all important 400 mark, and one reason I re-entered at support. There is however a bearish bias building with SPX below 200 dma. Keep an eye on that tomorrow. It could be a one day event or something more ominous.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 5:13:13 PM

Trade Recap
Day: NQ +22 (+$440 per)
Week: NQ +65.50 (+$1310 per)

Open positions:
Long NQ 1486, stop 1481 (quote 1493)
Long NVDA Jan 17.5 calls at 3.50, stop 3.50 (quote 4.80)

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 5:09:12 PM

I am leaving the stop at 1481 for now.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 5:04:54 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 5:04:14 PM

ES 50 dma at 1267 holds and NQ 10 dma held. bulls save the day.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 4:54:15 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 7/27/2006 4:09:29 PM

Those are some pretty bearish looking doji's or shooting stars on the daily charts of the DOW and SPX. I'd be looking for follow through to the downside tomorrow. I'll cover a lot more detail in tonight's Wrap.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 4:02:49 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPY $126.46 : YM 11,142

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 3:53:26 PM

CNBC flashed some replay of a MSFT product demo that wasn't going very well. Presenter was trying to demo some type of "voice recognition" product and computer/software seemed to have a different idea of what was being said.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 3:51:31 PM

Microsoft Sees Up To 10% Sales Growth From Vista

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 3:39:22 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $17.74 -1.11% Link ... holding important support.

Keene Little : 7/27/2006 3:36:19 PM

We're starting to see some short term bullish divergences and the wave pattern looks like we should see at least a little larger consolidation before continuing lower. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a sideways/up correction into the close.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 3:33:44 PM

SPY $126.32 -0.40% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 3:32:54 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) alert 374.78 -1.40% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 3:31:29 PM

YM 11,130 ... hanging tough at MONTHLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 3:29:19 PM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $72.90 -20.71% ... probes its MONTHLY 80.9% retracement.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 3:26:25 PM

I need a QQQQ hedge! (other than the EXPD short)

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 3:25:22 PM

Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO) $22.80 +0.66% ... holding on to 21-day, 50-day, 200-day congestion

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 3:24:26 PM

I have to leave, if SOX goes red, exit. Stop stays at 1481 but raise it if we bounce back above 1488.50.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 3:21:33 PM

Newmont Mining (NEM) $50.58 -4.62% ... really getting whacked.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 3:20:22 PM

Projection chart off earleir H/L. Gives us 38.2 at 1485.50 and 50 at 1482.75. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 3:20:28 PM

Expeditors Intl. (EXPD) $44.00 -3.60% Link ... "O gets the square"

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 3:18:37 PM

Noticeable tick divergnce so we try again.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 3:18:19 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1486, stop 1481.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 3:17:33 PM

S1 might get a snap test.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 3:17:11 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 3:17:01 PM

tick divergence

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 3:13:48 PM

That tick fade worked and let's see if I'm right about the SOX.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 3:12:46 PM

SPX NH/NL 23:13

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 3:12:08 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 3:11:31 PM

-700 tick

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 3:11:18 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1487, stop 1481.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 3:08:53 PM

This is an oil stock problem, not SOX.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 3:07:56 PM

Let's see how support holds.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 3:07:04 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 3:02:51 PM

1495.50 is R and where we will see if they drive the close lower. So far, support is holding, but it can change quickly. ES is still bullish above 1267, 50 dma.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 3:02:44 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 3:01:30 PM

COMP/NQ/QQQQ finding clear support at respective 10 dma. Still long above.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 3:00:49 PM

+3 partial

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 2:59:45 PM

I don;t like the idea of testing S1 now, so I will move the stop up, right above 10 dma.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 2:59:18 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -
Long 1488.50, raise stop to 1484.50.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 2:58:06 PM

Right now, this has been a great trading strategy to take profits on run-ups and buy dips above 10 dma. We have booked sizeable gains this way and I prefer this course for now.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 2:57:09 PM

This all comes back to QQQQ 36 put support. We are going to have lots of this within a range ahead of the Feds. I do not subscribe at this point to the collapse scenario before August 8, unless some major geo-political event takes place.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 2:53:56 PM

I am putting in a wider stop, just below S1. This is for the traders who were in on the 1488 trade yesterday that ntted +21 today. We are back there and there is still 10 dma support.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 2:52:57 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1488.50, stop 1481.50.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 2:51:55 PM

Tech blues is back but QQQQ 36.36 is support.

Keene Little : 7/27/2006 2:49:13 PM

After getting a tick above its Fib target of 1281.50 ES has now dropped below its steeper uptrend line from July 21st. Taking out this morning's low was confirmation of the leg up being finished. It is now finding support at 1269 which is the prior high on July 19th and it should consolidate here for just a little bit before continuing lower. The uptrend from July 18th should be the target before we see a bigger bounce. That line is currently down near 1260. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 2:48:17 PM

Amex Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 318.41 -2.85% ... "reversal of the day" at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 2:46:04 PM

Italy Govt. Wins Senate Confidence Vote On Afghan Funding

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 2:39:56 PM

eBay (EBAY) $23.97 -1.88% ... slips to fresh 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 2:26:08 PM

TRP's bottom line looks to have met consensus US$0.42

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 2:24:16 PM

TRP earnings (headlines)

2Q Net Cont. Operations C$0.50/Shr vs. $0.41

2Q Cash Flow C$539M

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 2:22:20 PM

TransCanada Pipelines (TRP) $29.94 -0.72% Link ...


Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 2:18:12 PM

Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 685.07 -1.35% ... edges below Wednesday's relative low. Did stick its head above 700 this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 2:14:54 PM

Exxon/Mobil (XOM) $66.56 -0.06% ... slips red.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 2:10:22 PM

Tim Hortons Announces Solid Q2 Results; Company Declares First-Ever Dividend

DJ- Oakville, Ont. doughnut chain Tim Hortons Inc. (THI.T) posted solid second-quarter earnings and revenue, which it attributed to the success of its promotional calendar.

It said second-quarter earnings increased to C$76.3 million or 39 Canadian cents a share from C$60.9 million or 38 Canadian cents a year earlier. It had significantly more shares outstanding in the latest quarter compared with a year ago.

The Thomson First Call mean earnings estimate for Tim Hortons' second quarter was 29 Canadian cents a share.

Revenue increased to C$406.8 million from C$368.5 million last year. Same-store sales rose 6.1% in Canada and 8.4% in the U.S.

The board also approved the company's first quarterly dividend of 7 Canadian cents a share, payable on Aug. 24 to holders of record Aug. 10.

NYSE:THI $24.97 -0.51% Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 2:05:59 PM

Bullishness really seemed to fade at my 12:53:42 post.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 2:02:34 PM

Expeditors Intl. (EXPD) $44.56 -2.38% .... DAILY S2 $43.98, then WEEKLY S1 $42.14.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 2:01:36 PM

Dow Transports (TRAN) alert 4,302 -1.42% ... WEEKLY S1 here.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 1:55:10 PM

Talisman Energy: 2006 Output Now Seen 500,000 BOE/D vs. Previous 530,000 BOE/D

DJ- Canadian energy firm Talisman Energy (TLM) has reduced its estimates for 2006 crude and natural gas production to 500,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day, down from previous projections of 530,000 boe/d, the company said Thursday.

Operational problems in the second quarter of 2006, along with asset sales, were responsible for the lower figures, Talisman President and CEO Jim Buckee said in a conference call.

"Operationally, the second quarter was very disappointing," he said, estimating that around 20,000 boe/d of production had been lost because of outages in fields in Canada, the North Sea and Algeria.

Around 6,000 boe/d of output was lost because of asset sales, while around 4,000 boe/d was because of issues with reservoirs that "may be fixable," Buckee said.

Talisman should produce around 520,000 boe/d in the fourth quarter, Buckee said. He added that the figures had a band of between -2%/+2%.

In a press release, Talisman also said that it is considering "significant additional non-core asset sales over the next 6-12 months" by selling properties in Canada and the North Sea, and exiting countries where it doesn't see strategic value.

"The value of these sales could be well over $1 billion, and we intend to use the proceeds to buy back Talisman shares," Talisman said in the press release.

In its 2Q results, Talisman's net income rose to C$686 million, or 62 Canadian cents a share, from C$340 million, or 31 Canadian cents. Earnings from operations were 38 Canadian cents, unchanged from last year.

TLM $16.63 -1.71% Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 1:52:17 PM

Israel General: Strategic Damage to Hezbollah 'Enormous'

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 1:51:23 PM

Israel Decides Not To Expand Offensive But Calls Up Troops

Keene Little : 7/27/2006 1:46:00 PM

We got the little waterfall drop from today's high--it started off slowly and then steepend into the current decline. That's another clue that the buying is finished and it's time to be on the short side of the market.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 1:42:27 PM

EXPD $45.01 -1.40% ... just a note that this stock is a component of the QQQQ.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 1:35:22 PM

QQQQ $36.44

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 1:35:09 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPY 126.70

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 1:34:27 PM

I'm short enough in the MM profiles but....

BHI $80.58 -0.28% Link ... short here, stop $83.00, target $73

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 1:32:52 PM

Natural Gas Index (XNG.X) 431.87 -0.51% ... probes session lows.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 1:32:02 PM

Tellabs (TLAB) $9.39 -14.63% Link ... QQQQ and NWX.X loser in today's trade.

Keene Little : 7/27/2006 1:28:13 PM

If prices now drop below the low around 10:30 AM that should signify that the rally leg is finished. Short the bounces after that happens.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 1:28:09 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $24.04 -1.35% ... BIIIG weight in QQQQ.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 1:23:20 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 1:14:01 PM

QQQQ $36.59 (unch)

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 1:13:32 PM


Keene Little : 7/27/2006 1:05:49 PM

The market has gone dormant on us through lunch and now we'll see if we can one more high with yet another negative divergence to try the short play.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 1:05:08 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 1:00:05 PM

A 1,000 share lot trader/investor of the QQQQ ... might not be a bad idea to sell 1/2 Aug $37 Covered Call position (QQQHK) $0.60 bid.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 12:53:42 PM

S&P 500 Bullish % ($BPSPX) Link ... also on my "watch closely" list of internal indicators

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 12:39:49 PM

SPY $127.27 +0.34% ... has been bouncing along DAILY R1 $127.46.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 12:38:27 PM

VIX 14.45 -1.16% ... monitoring closely as it nears "14.00" ... DAILY S1 14.07 marks intra-day low.

WEEKLY S1/Daily Pivot close to overlapping.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 12:31:10 PM

Goldman Sachs (GS) $149.21 +1.24% ... challenged Tuesday's relative high within last 10 minutes.

Its WEEKLY R1 at $146.91

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 12:28:51 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 379.35 -0.19% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 12:27:55 PM

Securities Broker Dealer Index (XBD.X) 208.44 +1.99% ... probes WEEKLY R1 (208.31) first time this week.

200-day SMA right here too.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 12:24:14 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $111.62 +0.64% ... notable volume spike of 1.2 million shares from 10:40-45 AM EDT ($111.33-$111.54).

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 12:22:42 PM

Israel's Ministy Agrees Syria Mustn't Be Pulled Into Fight

DJ- Israel's Security Cabinet agreed Thursday that everything must be done to avoid dragging Syria into the Lebanon conflict, according to a report on Haaretz.com Thursday.

At the Cabinet meeting Thursday, the ministers agreed that everything must be done to avoid hostilities with Syria, or any actions that could result in Syria being dragged into the conflict, the report said.

The Cabinet agreed that all military operation changes - including any expansion or the deployment of the newly called-up troops - would first have to be authorized by the Cabinet, the Haaretz report said.

This move was aimed at reassuring Syria, the report said.

Syria is on high alert and fears an Israeli attack, the ministers were told, the report said. Defense Minister Amir Peretz is of the opinion that a broad call-up of reservists would exacerbate Syrian concerns that the operation is directed at them, the report said. Public Security Minister Avi Dichter was the only minister who expressed support for an operation against Syrian targets in Lebanon, saying that before expanding its ground operation, Israel must consider "the day after" and the goals it hopes to achieve, according the report.

At the meeting, the ministers decided not to expand the country's Lebanon offensive, but authorized the call up of tens of thousands of reserve soldiers to boost the Lebanese campaign, officials said.

The ministers gave the army permission to call up three additional reserve divisions - at least 30,000 soldiers - and get them battle ready should they need them to refresh troops in Lebanon.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert reportedly told ministers that the goals of Israel's 17-day offensive in Lebanon are being met, the report said.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 12:17:29 PM

CNBC Survey: U.S. 2Q Employment Cost Index Seen up 0.8%

DJ- There is keen interest in the employment cost index report for the second quarter because this relates directly to one of the Federal Reserve's chief concerns - labor cost pressures on inflation.

The median estimate of 21 economists is for a 0.8% increase in the ECI for the second quarter after a slowdown to 0.6% in the first quarter.

The Labor Department is due to release the second quarter ECI report at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT) on Friday. "With the unemployment rate continuing to decline, wage growth has picked up," noted Mickey Levy and Pete Kretzmer, economists at Banc of America Securities in New York in their weekly report to clients. "Average hourly earnings increased an annualized 4.5% in the second quarter, while private sector wages and salaries likely grew near 4.0% annualized. These strong gains in earnings suggest that the wage component of the employment cost index accelerated last quarter. While benefits growth has slowed since early 2004, a rebound from 0.5% in the first quarter seems likely." They look for a 0.8% quarterly increase for the ECI in the second quarter.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 12:15:38 PM

Brazil's Central Bank Buys Dollars at BRL2.1877

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 12:11:46 PM

NVIDIA (NVDA) $20.78 +2.61% ... notable volume spike of 1.478 million shares 20-minutes ago ($20.71-$20.87)

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 12:06:21 PM


DJ- Nation's largest cable-TV provider reports net income of $460 million, or 22c a share, as revenue climbs 11% to $6.23 billion. Analysts forecasted earnings of 20c and revenue of $6.13 billion. Comcast boosts subscriber-growth forecasts.

CMCSA $34.24 +5.28% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 12:04:28 PM


DJ- Telecommunications-equipment provider that is buying Lucent posts 8% drop in 2Q net profit to $229 million as Alcatel struggles with deteriorating margins in the competitive wireless-infrastructure business. Sales rise 7.6%.

ALA $11.04 -0.18% Link ...

LU $2.09 (unch) Link ... merging with ALA

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 12:01:54 PM


DJ- NCR 2Q net income falls to $78 million, or 42c a share, from $127 million, beating analysts' EPS estimate by 4c. Last year's results were helped by the resolution of tax audits. Revenue rises 4% to $1.53 billion, also topping estimates.

NCR $34.68 +0.14% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 11:58:34 AM

That might be what tech bulls are looking for "bad news" and higher stock price action.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 11:58:02 AM


DJ- Shares gain 10% a day after the company posts net income of $94.8 million, or 9c a share, on higher expenses and acquisition-related charges. Revenue soars to $1.26 billion amid Veritas acquisition.

SYMC $17.42 +10.25% Link (most active at the NASDAQ)

Keene Little : 7/27/2006 11:56:00 AM

Here's the update to the YM chart I showed first thing this morning. It has jammed its way higher inside this wedge with little spike throw-overs but it can't manage to get follow through. In the meantime the negative divergences continue. In my opinion this is a short play waiting to happen. Just keep your stop fairly close and try once or twice but if it suddenly takes off to the upside don't try shorting it any more. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 11:54:30 AM


DJ- World's fourth largest oil and gas firm Royal Dutch Shell posts 2Q net profit of $7.324 billion, or $1.13 per share compared to $5.236 billion, or 78c a share for the same period in 2005, helped by soaring oil prices. Revenue rises 1% to $83.13 billion.

RDS.a $70.86 +1.97% Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 11:51:32 AM


DJ- World's largest oil company posts 2Q net income of $10.36 billion, or $1.72 a share, on better refining margins and higher crude-oil and natural-gas prices. Analysts' mean estimate was for EPS of $1.64. Revenue rises 12% to $99.03 billion.

XOM $67.20 +0.90% Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 11:46:37 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 11:35:43 AM

NASDAQ Summation ($NASI) 10-point box Link ... still yet to show a near-term reversal from -830

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 11:33:52 AM

INTC bullish swing above 10 dma at 17.70. Needs to hold. NAZ AD line has improved and I am not so sure bears will win the day. Watch NQ 1510. A 10 mn candle close above sets up some serious short covering. See you later.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 11:32:50 AM

NYSE Summation ($NYSI) 10-point box Link ... does give a second consecutive "buy signal" at -120 yesterday.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 11:28:55 AM

Alert: NVDA Jan 17.5 calls at 3.50, stop raised to 3.50, even.
Now trading at 5.20. Some of you might want to sell some August 22.50 calls against it at .80, but should the stock close above 21, we could see quite a run higher.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 11:28:38 AM

NH/NL indications certainly depict some stability and some renewal of bullish leadership.

Index price gains are more robust and I would have to think a more positive a/d line in recent days has the "thorax" or mid-tier stocks having greater impact.

Will check the $NYSI (had been stronger) and $NASI (weaker of the two)

Keene Little : 7/27/2006 11:26:08 AM

YM is getting close to its Fib target of 11235 and ES has already reached its Fib target. Price continues to chop its way higher and gives me the impression we're actually seeing distribution even though the averages are up on the day. I'd prefer to be looking for a short play setup rather than a long play.

Keene Little : 7/27/2006 11:24:03 AM

Looking at the ascending wedge pattern for SPX again, price has been oscillating around the lower trend line. After dropping back through it this morning it's now bounced back up to the line. This could be a good short play if we see a kiss goodbye here at 1273 (cash). Otherwise this is just noise and hard to tell direction from here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 11:22:41 AM

SPX NH/NL 22:5

Yesterday's tally 22:14

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 11:20:20 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 11:15:49 AM

Looksl like they are going to go for weekly r2 at 1528 after all. Watch 1510 R. Unforunatley, I have a busy schedule today and can't trade this. But the original target of 1524/1528 might be in effect again.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 11:04:39 AM

Out of this. I have to leave.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 11:04:23 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 11:02:52 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 10:58:34 AM

Taking the break above gap open.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 10:57:50 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1504, stop 1502.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 10:57:05 AM

Mmm. I could have been too cautious.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 10:56:10 AM

No gas

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 10:55:59 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 10:54:51 AM

United Parcel Service (UPS) $67.09 -1.09% ... edges below Tuesday's lows.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 10:54:44 AM

gap open 1504

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 10:54:26 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1502.50, raise stop to 1501.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 10:53:49 AM

Let's get this pre-lunch trade.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 10:53:32 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1502.50, stop 1500.50.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 10:53:27 AM

1502.50 is a big deal

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 10:53:02 AM

I'm not so sure we will fall apart, but higher oil and now higher rates are worrying me. Nevertheless, TRINNQ still a bullish .66

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 10:52:11 AM

iShares DJ Transports (IYT) $77.63 -1.10% ... losing yesterday's lows.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 10:49:52 AM

Negative NQ ADVDEC.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 10:49:34 AM

Gap close is near pivot

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 10:49:12 AM

Fill alert on EXPD $44.90 -1.64%

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 10:48:45 AM

ADVDEC finding some suppor there.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 10:48:19 AM

Scalpers again.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 10:48:00 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 10:46:52 AM

Swing trade sell short alert for 1/2 position in Expeditors Int. (EXPD) limit $44.90, stop $47.50, target $38.00.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 10:46:31 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1502.50, stop 1500.50.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 10:46:11 AM


Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 10:45:16 AM

In the gap.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 10:38:25 AM

That puts us at + 64.50 for the week or $1290 per contract (YM +258 equivalent). Good enough for now.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 10:35:33 AM

I am exiting earlier than planned due to the lower ADVDEC line. It might change, but I feel it is safer to book it.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 10:35:03 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
+ 21 ($420 per contract)

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 10:33:58 AM

EIA Weekly Nat. Gas Storage Table found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 10:32:49 AM

CME May07 Futures found at this Link

07/12/06 trade Link

07/06/06 trade Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 10:32:23 AM

Let' see how NQ does at 1510.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 10:32:02 AM

OIl is getting a nasty bid.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 10:31:23 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1488, raise stop to 1490.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 10:27:58 AM

I don;t like the ADVDEC line drop.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 10:23:34 AM

The weaker home sales is offsetting durable goods and giving bonds a bid. Looks like the Feds have more reason to pause if not halt.

Tab Gilles : 7/27/2006 10:17:52 AM

Weekly EIA Report Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 10:16:10 AM

NQ finds support at gap open (1504).

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 10:15:14 AM

Regional New Homes Sales (June vs. May)

Northeast: -11.3% in June to 55,000

Midwest: -7.9% to 176,000

South: -6.0% to 583,000

West +8.2% to 317,000

Median Price National -1.57% to $231,300 from $235,000

Mean Price National -1.59% to $290,600 from $295,300

Houses for Sale National +0.71% to 566,000 from 562,000

Months of Inventory 6.1 from 5.9.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 10:03:27 AM

New Home Sales -3% to 1.131M annual rate

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 10:02:20 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 9:59:50 AM

This is the part of the durable orders giving techs the lead today : Orders for computers and electronics rose 3.4 percent last month after falling 2.1 percent. Communications equipment orders increased 8.3 percent after rising 6.6 percent the month before. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 9:59:47 AM

Aetna (AET) $31.80 -20.42% Link ... early drag on HMO's

Earnings Story (Reuters) Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 9:57:46 AM

Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) $94.29 -4.7% Link ... gets defensive

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 9:53:25 AM

BIDU's MONTHLY S1 is $74.54

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 9:51:17 AM

Done at $5.00

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 9:50:59 AM

Gap open is 1504, gap close is 1495.75. Should we lose 1510, look for that zone of support.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 9:50:49 AM

Closing out BIDU Aug $75 puts in here ... BIDU $75.59

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 9:49:19 AM

Now watch this pullback, NQ must hold 1510.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 9:45:31 AM

We could rally all the way into the close with no eod reversal. Let's see how much of a pullback we get at 1521.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 9:43:42 AM

ES 1290 is R there.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 9:41:45 AM

Wacth NQ 1521, stiff R.

Jeff Bailey : 7/27/2006 9:37:06 AM

Table of Economic Data at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 9:30:42 AM

XOM posts 10 B in profit. You are pretty sure with the elections coming that the windfall profit tax talk will ignite once more.

Keene Little : 7/27/2006 9:29:32 AM

I'll be away for the first couple of hours. See you in a few.

Keene Little : 7/27/2006 8:29:03 AM

In a pattern similar to the one I've been showing for ES/SPX, YM has been chopping its way higher since the pullback low on July 21st. This choppy climb, with negatively divergent highs, gives me the impression that this is an ending pattern. By redrawing the uptrend line off yesterday's low we can see that price stopped on the line at yesterday's close. Link

Now futures are up fairly strong pre-market and I'll be watching to see if the Fib projections will be made (ES 1281.50 and YM 11235). The top of the wedge for YM is currently near 11205. A small throw-over later could nail its Fib target. But I would look at this rally as something to short and then we'll have to see what develops to the downside (just a pullback or the start of the BIG one down).

Marc Eckelberry : 7/27/2006 3:27:50 AM

NQ long 1488 stays open, stop at 1481. Comfirmed support at 1482/1483 and looks like we have another overnight bid.

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