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Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2006 1:01:26 AM

Index Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2006 1:01:21 AM

Last 3 WEEKLY Index Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/29/2006 1:01:06 AM

Really good show/information from James Cramer's "Mad Money" regarding reasons for current market volatility.

Overnight lending rates high and low commissions have big houses less willing to take big positions from clients and then distribute over time.

Thinking of Thursday's decline in banks (everybody out) and then Friday's (everybody in).

OI Technical Staff : 7/28/2006 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 9:57:53 PM

Marc updated his WEEKLY trade tally and current OPEN Positions at 05:17:19 PM

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 9:57:49 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Today's Activity

Stocks/Options I did suggest that we raise our stop on the SPY-TV to $128.60, but at this point, I begin to "consign" defeat. Raised bearish tarket $125.57 and it would take a close BELOW WEEKLY PIVOT on Tuesday to sway me from target. As the profiled portfolio stands at this point, the SPY-TV may be worth holding onto with NO STOP.

Swing traded long 1/2 position in shares of Ryland Group (RYL) at the offer of $40.85. Stop currently $38.40 and targeting $48.00.

I haven't closed any position since Tuesday's Blotter Link

*The main reason I suggest a trader keep a blotter is for review of prior trade and thought. Is the security (even though closed out) still within original technicals, or scenario for bias? Is a prior "winning trade" back at another good entry point?

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 8:53:37 PM

nq06u chart I showed a couple of weeks ago with "bearish close" below 1,533 and my "bear fit 38.2%" technique.

I like to use this chart for daily settlement/close. Get a bias from the MARKET and see who has the risk/reward to a level.

Bears look to have covered where the should have at 1,458 (resultant 50% of bear fit) and 1st big test coming.

Years ago I noted the "2 levels above close" (for resumption of bullishness) or "2 levels below close" (for resumption of bearishness).

Shorts should concede the 1,533 level and I'm surprised it didn't happen today. Similar 21-day SMA close as that found back in early June. Might be careful from the new bull side to "chase a gap higher open" Monday morning.

NQ chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 7:51:48 PM

NASDAQ Summation ($NASI) 10-point box Link ... With COMPX and QQQQ Price benchmarks near beginning of each month.

See the difference between PnF chart display and that of a line chart?

If you "bought the bottom" in early June and then in July you might want to wait for some type of 'buy signal' before averaging down again.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 7:25:56 PM

Not to me Tab (06:50:23). Right shoulder way too deep and right back at your "head."

That's what I call a "hunchback" and shoulder grows too far into the "ear."

Your BLUE trend may be helpful, or come into play though.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 7:16:49 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link ... Anemic volume at the NASDAQ in my opinion. With one day left in the month, NASDAQ volume running 1.94 billion.

NYSE volume depicts greater interest/disagreement among traders.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 6:58:14 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 6:58:55 PM

I had posted the right angle broadening formation on NQ chart a few days ago, with the stipulation that should the dble bottom hold, we could see a breakout in the coming weeks above 1600. Looks on track with close above 20 dma. If you only looked at QQQQ, you might have been fooled by the bearish megaphone. NQ was right so far: Link Link

Tab Gilles : 7/28/2006 6:50:23 PM

SPY PnF Link Link

Tab Gilles : 7/28/2006 6:37:04 PM

SPY 60-minute looks like an inverse H&S pattern that broke the neckline, Jeff? Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 6:36:13 PM

SPY 60-minute interval chart at this Link

Red/Green circles are recent PUT trade profiles where we bought puts near $125.26, then scaled out GREEN near MONTHLY S1.

Then BOUGHT puts below $124.50 and SPY has been higher since.

Today's GDP data gives a trader/investor some pause. It is the "bad news/good news" predicament.

Today's GDP figures were weaker than consensus, and most likely weaker than many had thought. Still a VERY NICE growth rate in my opinion, but probably not as robust as many had thought. But that seemed to be "good news" as far as a possible pause from the Fed.

Yesterday's action, then today's action in the BIX.X is very much the "shorts on the wrong side," or at least a sign that they may be confused (the bearish side of me is a bit confused/cautious, as is the bullish side). Knee-jerk out, and BIG in today. YIELD curve steepens today and that's often a sign of expanding economy.

But when you look at the U.S. Market Watch today, what looks a little "out of place," or something we might not have thought would have happened with Treasury YIELDS plunging?

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 5:36:30 PM

Swing trade put raise target alert ... will raise bearish target for the two (2) S&P Dep. Receipts' SPY Aug $126 Puts (SPY-TV) to $125.57 at this time.

Tab Gilles : 7/28/2006 5:27:47 PM

QQQQ Leaps are Calls. You can buy QQQQ, use QLD/UOPIX or QID/USPIX to double NDX, or go with Calls/Puts and Leaps to kick it up another notch, putting a small percentage of the QQQQ money there. I've been personally using the QQQQ Jan 2007 37.0000 call (QQQAK.X). Got in last Friday @ $1.85, closed today $2.45/$2.50, +32% 1 week.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 5:23:52 PM

Weekly Global Econ Data (recap) found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 7/28/2006 5:18:38 PM

Intel (INTC) weekly 3 year chart. Double Bottom? Link Daily Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 5:17:19 PM

Weekly Trade Recap
NQ + 65.50 (+$1310 per contract)
Open positions:
NQ long 1486, stop 1496 (+35.25 unrealized)
NVDA long Jan 17.5 calls at 3.50, stop 3.50 (+2.85 or +80% unrealized)

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 5:14:25 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert
NQ long 1486, stop 1496.
Always hedge if holding over. Sell to close is cancelled for now.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 5:13:09 PM

I darned near profiled those QLD's, but decided to go with the QQQQ at this point. (see MM Profiles)

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 5:10:35 PM

That's an interesting strategy Tab.

Is that buying LEAPS protective puts and going long the funds?

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 5:10:01 PM

NVDA surges past 200 dma.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 5:08:53 PM

The target of 1528 was not quite reached, high was 1522. Nevertheless, it is the first close aboe the 20 dma in weeks and the trade stays open.

Tab Gilles : 7/28/2006 5:00:43 PM

Average in to the Profunds UOPIX/UAPIX or one can use ETFs from Profunds, ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) Link

This ETF just came out. Link

You can now trade intraday instead on closing NAV in the fund.

I've been using the funds and trading QQQQ leaps.

bottom line Nasdaq ands stocks are heading higher according to charts and indicators.


Tab Gilles : 7/28/2006 4:51:56 PM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Keep eye on MUR next several days and weeks for a re-entry point. Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 4:53:12 PM

Tab! You're adding to your 06/23/06 UAPIX ($25.88) and 06/27/06 UOPIX ($20.56) positions?

Tab Gilles : 7/28/2006 4:40:25 PM

Selling Murphy Oil (MUR) Link

And going long the Nasdaq, $RUT and $NDX via Profunds UOPIX and UAPIX look like the correct move. Link

Keene Little : 7/28/2006 4:27:23 PM

With ES parked just off the top of its ascending wedge at 1286 it looks like a short waiting to happen on Monday. Certainly that's the way I'd be leaning if you want to try a short Sunday night. But a brief blip higher Monday morning could be just the ticket for a great entry. In the meantime I hope everyone has a great weekend. See you Monday.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 4:43:26 PM

It's probably because I've got SPY puts and QQQQ long that it seems like S&P better long of late.

Dow and S&P's really look like shorts were pressured today (if not past couple).

NASDAQ didn't trade as "agressive"

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 4:43:21 PM

NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) 1,510.30 +2.14% ... still off its 07/03/06 close of 1,586.25.

Perhaps this MARKET was right about slowing economy.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 4:09:02 PM

UN's Permanent 5 Introduces Iran Nuclear Resolution

DJ- The five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council reached a deal Friday on a resolution that would give Iran until the end of August to suspend uranium enrichment or face the threat of economic and diplomatic sanctions.

The draft was formally circulated to the full 15-member council late in the day and will likely be adopted sometime next week.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 4:01:28 PM

S&P 100 Index (OEX.X) 590.00 +1.10% ... gets a close above its 07/03/06 relative high of 589.44.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 3:47:58 PM

Shorts didn't head home early for the weekend.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 3:46:46 PM

SPY $128.10 +1.08% ... best levels of the session.

It can't end soon enough for bears!

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 3:46:07 PM

DJ- IMF: Risks Tilted Toward Lower U.S. Growth, More Inflation

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 3:43:04 PM

DJ- IMF: US Shouldn't Rule Out Tax Hikes, Dropping Tax Breaks

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 3:41:38 PM

DJ- IMF: US Needs Reform of GSE, Pension, Insurance Oversight

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 3:40:36 PM

UN Aide Asks 72-Hour Mideast Truce To Evacuate Civilians

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 3:17:37 PM

SPX NH/NL 23:10

Yesterday's tally was 23:15

06/30/06 was 22:9

07/03/06 was 15:4

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 3:15:57 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 7/28/2006 3:14:59 PM

Just as I thought might happen this afternoon--we've got little doji's on the 60-min chart for the last 4 hours worth of trading. Looks like people started their weekend early.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 3:05:21 PM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 4,416.21 +2.56% ... back above their 200-day SMA (4,398)

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 3:02:47 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 2:59:46 PM

Evergreen Solar (ESLR) $9.59 -4.48% Link ... doesn't look like a stock that depicts "lack of energy resources" at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 2:56:53 PM

Dawson Geophysical (DWSN) $30.27 +2.33% Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 2:55:49 PM

"Inny-Outy" ... Input/Output (IO) $9.42 -1.67% Link ... could be in the "sweet spot" of oil service if a producer is going to survive.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 2:47:56 PM

What are some "nuclear" plays?

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 2:51:06 PM

What do you make of Chesapeake CEO's comments regarding Natural Gas fields?

That will make an investor "overweight" in energy re-think things. Wouldn't it?

Can't fill the reserve base and eventually run's dry at some point.

Those that can find it will be rewarded. Those that can't find it at the rate they produce? Who wants to own an oil/gas producer that has no oil/gas to produce?

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 2:44:12 PM

March 16, 2006 at 892.43.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 2:43:22 PM

I can't remember the last time the homebuilders traded a WEEKLY R2.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 2:33:58 PM

Hmmm ... darned close to this week's WEEKLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 2:33:50 PM

All those sell program premiums were on Tuesday (07/25/06) ... from first-to-last ... $125.92, $125.82, $125.75, $125.79, $126.12, $126.80 (and I probably didn't get all the premiums that day).

Average of the above would be ... $126.03.

Keene Little : 7/28/2006 2:26:26 PM

SPX continues to press the top of its wedge but this being a Friday we might not see the sellers start to kick in until Monday. It may not fall from here but I sure wouldn't be buying it. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 2:26:13 PM

SPY 60-minute interval chart at this Link ... going back to check what day and price levels we saw all those "sell program premiums" with little downside budge in the SPY.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 2:16:45 PM

I almost profiled a "buy more" SPY Aug $126 Puts yesterday, but didn't as SPY finished above MONTHLY Pivot. Tempting here, but get the feel it may be throwing good money after bad.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 2:14:11 PM

The SEP $128 Put may be a "speculator" with tight stop.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 2:11:23 PM

SPY Option Chain sorted by most active at this Link ... has the look of "max downside" of $124.55 for August.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 1:58:49 PM

SPY most active Sep $128 Put (SPY-UX) $2.40 (17,881:28,686) with VIX 14.34

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 1:54:03 PM

Stocks are getting the Goldilocks bid
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment was stronger-than-expected in July, a report showed on Friday, as expectations improved despite a slip in views on the current economic situation.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 1:52:43 PM

I have to step away. Stop stays at 1498.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 1:51:38 PM

NQ holds 1510 and the race into the close could be on.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 1:49:50 PM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $31.20 +2.09% ... session high $31.45 still shy of $31.51.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 1:45:31 PM

INTC 50 dma at 18.03.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 1:42:36 PM

If bulls mean business, they will not let go of 1510.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 1:42:17 PM

Watch SMH 31.10 support and NQ 1510.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 1:33:51 PM

Scratch that, 31.75 is next R if 31.10 holds.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 1:26:10 PM

SMH breaks out of the wedge/channel on the daily: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 1:23:04 PM

BIX +2.16% ...

SPY $127.82 +0.88% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 1:22:09 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link ... notable steepening of YIELD curve.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 1:14:58 PM

Normal pull at 20 dma, but I think we close above this time, so I would not be short.

Keene Little : 7/28/2006 1:11:19 PM

We're getting the push higher now which should be the 5th wave up for the move up from yesterday's low. Watch for short term negative divergences to find a spot to short this.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 1:08:55 PM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $31.42 ... "bad tick" up to WEEKLY R2.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 1:06:36 PM

SPY alert $128.00 +1.02% ... MONTHLY 38.2% and WEEKLY R2 overlap

July 3 relative high.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 1:05:35 PM

If we get above +30 on NQ, odds start increasing for a +40 day. Do not short this day if we hold above 1516.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 1:04:57 PM

Good note Marc (12:57:49) .... that's not long after PHF got the bid from $9.40 level.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 1:04:37 PM

Corrected, 23.6 is 1534, which will probably get hit next week. Could happen today, but +40 NQ days are rare.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 1:03:19 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 1:02:33 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1488, raise stop to 1498, sell to close 1528 (weekly R2)

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 1:01:33 PM

Boom, boom, boom, boom. NQ and COMP above 20 dma for the first time in weeks.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 1:02:57 PM

Bill Gross nailed that 2 weeks ago, calling the end of the bond bear market.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 12:57:48 PM

Perhaps the "biggest surprise" for me to this point is that the VIX.X 14.15 hasn't seen 14.00.

I say this as majors up just about 1.0% and so much green on the screen.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 12:55:42 PM

DJ- Annan

Secretary-General Kofi Annan plans to invite countries that might contribute troops to an international force to be deployed on the Lebanon-Israel border to a meeting on Monday, a key step to bringing the current fighting to an end, a U.N. official said Friday.

France, Britain and other members of the U.N. Security Council are pressing for a resolution that would demand an immediate halt to the fighting between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah militia and establish a force to help the Lebanese army extend its authority throughout southern Lebanon, which is now controlled by the militant Islamic group.

Diplomats said informal discussions were expected to continue over the weekend among key capitals, and the council could begin discussing a draft resolution in earnest next week.

But before the council gives a go-ahead for either a strengthened U.N. force or an international force under a U.N. mandate, it needs to know if any countries are prepared to provide troops.

Annan has therefore decided to hold a potential troop contributors meeting on Monday afternoon, and he will be inviting countries that might offer troops, the U.N. official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because no announcement has been made.

The invitation list is expected to include contributors to the current 2,000-member U.N. force in southern Lebanon, known as UNIFIL, and the 25 members of the European Union which has publicly offered to help.

French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy has said that "France could very well participate ... under the mandate of the U.N." Italy, Germany, Ireland and Turkey have already said they are considering joining a U.N.-run multinational force, and diplomats in the continent's other capitals are discussing whether to add their countries to the roster ahead of a hastily arranged EU foreign ministers meeting in Brussels on Tuesday.

Key Mideast players agreed at a conference in Rome this week to create a multinational peacekeeping force and called for urgent action to halt the fighting in Lebanon but they stopped short of demanding an immediate cease-fire at U.S. insistence, disappointing many countries. The United States says it wants the conditions for a cease-fire that will bring lasting peace between Israel and Lebanon.

French President Jacques Chirac called Friday for the rapid adoption of a resolution demanding an immediate cease-fire in Lebanon, his office said.

U.N. diplomats said U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has let it be known that she wants a meeting of Security Council foreign ministers on Wednesday or Thursday in New York to push a new resolution. The diplomats spoke on condition of anonymity because no announcement has been made.

Douste-Blazy said France also wants a ministerial meeting next week, and French President Jacques Chirac called Friday for the rapid adoption of a resolution demanding an immediate cease-fire, his office said.

France first laid out its ideas on a sequence of events for easing the conflict in a memo passed around in Rome. Officials said the resolution was expected to resemble the memo.

The French timeline for ending the crisis calls for an immediate cessation of hostilities as a first step.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 12:52:45 PM

SPY $127.82

QQQQ $36.97

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 12:52:23 PM

This is it. 20 dma NQ, bulls need to close above (1516).

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 12:52:20 PM

DJ- Annan Plans Meeting for Nations That May Join Intl. Force

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 12:47:28 PM

India: Threat To Nuke Sites From Pakistan-Based Militants

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 12:46:09 PM

SPY 127.80

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 12:45:52 PM

Blair: Monday Meeting At UN to Discuss Lebanon

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 12:42:32 PM

Any test of SPY WEEKLY S1 next week (if traded) will be a BIG near-term support level.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 12:41:38 PM

SPY $127.95 +0.97% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 12:41:15 PM

Swing trade put adjust stop alert ... on the SPY puts ... to just above today's DAILY R2. Adjust stop to $128.60.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 12:39:41 PM

DJ- Bush: Rice To Return To Middle East Saturday

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 12:39:17 PM

DJ- Bush: Multinational Force Must Be Dispatched To Lebanon

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 12:38:35 PM

India: Pakistani Army Officer Killed In Kashmir

India: Pakistani Army Officer Among Suspected Islamic Militants

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 12:37:03 PM

QQQQ $36.96

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 12:36:48 PM

SPY $127.79

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 12:36:32 PM

President Bush hasn't lost his sense of humor.

Bush, Blair discuss Mideast

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 12:34:49 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Keene Little : 7/28/2006 12:32:49 PM

Of course yesterday we saw what looked like a consolidation near the high and then it tipped over in the afternoon (the waterfall drop) which took away the entire day's gain. That's always a possibility here.

Keene Little : 7/28/2006 12:31:23 PM

The way this is consolidating near the high in a sideways move, it looks like it's got another leg up coming. That would give us a 5-wave move up off yesterday's low and then we should see either the end of this move up from July 18th or at least a larger pullback. But for now it appears it's a little early to short this.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 12:23:35 PM


DJ- Manufacturer reports net income of $313.5 million, or 95c a share, with earnings of continuing operations rising to 97c. Revenue increases 10% to $3.04 billion. Company raises full-year earnings forecast.

IR $36.38 +0.22% Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 12:21:57 PM


DJ- As many as 5,000 additional U.S. troops with armored vehicles and tanks will be sent into Baghdad under a plan being developed by military commanders to stem escalating violence in the Iraqi capital, defense officials say.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 12:21:24 PM


DJ- Xstrata shares jump 6% in London as its bid for Falconbridge looks likely to go ahead with Inco dropping its friendly bid for Canadian miner Falconbridge. Inco, which gains 2%, is still looking to combine with Phelps Dodge.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 12:18:53 PM


DJ- CEO Hackett says Anadarko expects to raise $7.5-$10 billion in after-tax proceeds from asset sales. Anadarko announced acquisitions of Kerr-McGee and Western Gas in June and expected to raise $15 billion from divestitures and new equity offerings.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 12:17:33 PM


DJ- Money manager Mario Gabelli, who just reached a settlement on charges of defrauding government in an auction of wireless licenses, wants to participate in another auction, where FCC would auction off 1,122 federally-used licenses.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 12:16:58 PM

ISRAEL UPS ATTACKS AS HEZBOLLAH LAUNCHES NEW ROCKETDJ- Israeli warplanes and artillery attacks intensify, hitting Hezbollah positions and crushing houses in southern Lebanon, killing up to 12 people. Meanwhile, Hezbollah says it's launched a new type of rocket into Israel.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 12:14:00 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1488, stop 1488, sell to close at 1528.
I might adjust, depends on how we handle 1516, 20 dma.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 12:12:45 PM

QQQQ $36.90 +1.54% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 12:11:59 PM

Thanks Marc ...

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 12:10:41 PM

There are enough shorts out there judging from the pc ratio to give us a closing squeeze.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 12:09:05 PM

NVDA up 5% today. Jeez does that stock knows how to climb or what! Jan 17.5 calls now at 5.60, we got in at 3.50. Book 1/2 position in profits now as we get close to the 200 dma. Let the rest ride!

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 12:01:40 PM

Dell Computer (DELL) $21.89 +1.57% Link ... fills its 07/20 to 07/21 gap.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 11:59:49 AM

I am in good company.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 12:06:04 PM

According to Guru Focus (a site that shows the holdings of the top value investors in the world), Bill Nygren has added 340% stake in INTC for a total of 9 million shares and just bought 7 million shares of DELL. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 11:51:36 AM

QQQQ $36.86 +1.40% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 11:49:46 AM

20-cent and counting .... Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $31.31 +2.45% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 11:48:26 AM

My bullish bet on INTC over the next few months is about to face the big test.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 11:47:30 AM

SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) -- Intel Corp. launched its biggest product revamp in six years Thursday, unveiling 10 microprocessors that are expected to help the world's largest chip maker retake ground lost to smaller competitor Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
The Core 2 Duo microprocessors, which are being rolled out gradually over the next month, are Intel's first desktop and mobile chips to feature a blueprint designed to deliver significantly better performance while requiring less power and kicking off less heat. Also Thursday, Intel slashed prices as much as 61 percent on some of its older chips -- a move likely to put more pressure on AMD and result in lower prices for consumers.
"The days when AMD could just kick Intel around like it was a piece of wet newspaper are gone," said analyst Nathan Brookwood of the research firm Insight 64. "It is really a dramatic shift in terms of their competitive position, and not a minute too soon." Intel CEO Paul Otellini acknowledged that the company's old design -- or microarchitecture -- struggled to compete against AMD's offerings. He vowed that Intel would develop new designs more frequently than it has in the past. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 11:46:59 AM

Disclosure: I currently hold a bullish position in RYL

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 11:46:26 AM

Swing trade long alert ... for 1/2 position in shares of Ryland Group (RYL) $40.85 +4.74% here, stop $38.40, target $48.00.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 11:44:10 AM

NYSE new 52 highs at 98 and lows at 38.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 11:43:25 AM

These little pullbacks could be bear traps. ADVDEC lines are rock solid bullish as are VIX, VXN and QQV. The only hitch I see is PC ratio at 1 and TRIN above 1.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 11:38:37 AM

INTC above 18 and in the July gap: Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 11:36:13 AM

Broker Dealer Index (XBD.X) alert 211.27 +2.27% ... bold move back above 200-day SMA (confirms S&P 500 Action couple days ago).

Keene Little : 7/28/2006 11:34:22 AM

Two equal legs up off yesterday's low is at ES 1285 and that could be the ideal short entry point.

Keene Little : 7/28/2006 11:33:41 AM

ES has rallied up to the top of its wedge at 1284 so now we'll see if the bulls can hold it or even better punch above it. For now it makes a natural entry point for another short play. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 11:33:02 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 11:27:08 AM

Target is still 1524/1528.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 11:26:15 AM

AD lines keep getting stronger,as opposed to yesterday. Legs are building.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 11:27:48 AM

This is a big turnaround day for bull, but they need to hold it into the close. Right now, it is looking good.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 11:12:54 AM

I doubt Bernanke is a democrat. He was head of Bush' council of economic advisors. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 11:12:34 AM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 383.06 +2.05% ... EXPLODING!

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 11:11:14 AM

SPY and DIA trading like they are VERY, VERY short and somebody's on the "wrong side"

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 11:07:27 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 11:07:22 AM

In any case, I will take this rally. Watch COMP 2089, 20 dma. NQ trade is now +22 and that puts our week total above +90! Take some off if you wish.

Keene Little : 7/28/2006 11:05:54 AM

Yea but Bernanke is from Academia. Aren't all academia liberal elitists and therefore Democrats? (wink)

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 11:05:33 AM

I agree Keene, IF we don't get a soft landing. If Bernanke pulls it off and lower rates after a pause in August, it could work. That of course, might be asking too much from his Highness.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 11:03:43 AM

The Feds went too far back then, the market had the same kind of drop we have now, Greenspan came in and admitted a mistake and cut rates. The rest is history. I don;t think Bernanke has that kind of candor, but he must know that to raise in August will mark the end of days. It would most certainly give the house to the Democrats and he is after all a Bush appointment.

Keene Little : 7/28/2006 11:03:06 AM

Looking at the ascending wedge for ES it can actually continue higher until resistance at the top of its wedge at 1284.50. We'll just have to wait and see which index is going to hold sway over this rally.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 11:02:09 AM

Dow Industrials (INDU) 11,206 +0.94% ... surging and sets up for test of WEEKLY R2. It should trade it. May be first chance to see what happens based on the GDP data. (positive/negative)

Keene Little : 7/28/2006 11:00:55 AM

Marc, if the Fed stops raising rates now or a month from now, the facts support the case for a lower market 6 and 12 months from now. We'll get a relief rally on the news of a pause/stop but that'll be an ideal long term short entry.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 11:00:45 AM

But at this point, they better not raise in August. That would have disatrous consequences. This is all like 1998 again.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 10:58:51 AM

In fact, I would not be suprised to see a rate drop in October, right before the elections. The bears have not factored in that scenario and could be in for a real suprise as we could have very well left the year lows behind us already. If the Feds manage to avoid a recession and give us a soft landing, look out above.

Keene Little : 7/28/2006 10:57:04 AM

Th choppiness continues as the market works its way higher. YM is once again pressing the top of its ascending wedge. It's looking like it'll take a couple of tries to find the top to this pattern. The overlapping highs and lows as it works its way higher is bearish but clearly the Boyz are working their magic in pushing it higher, selling into it, rinse and repeat. Should be another good shorting opportunity here at YM 11227.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 10:56:08 AM

Staples (SPLS) $21.97 -0.63% Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 10:55:34 AM

Fed fund futures at only 28% rate hike probablility. This has never happened in tw oyears this close to a meeting. We are done with rate hikes and it is about time.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 10:55:25 AM

Officemax (OMX) $41.21 -2.64% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 10:52:44 AM

Office Depot (ODP) alert $34.00 -8.47%

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 10:51:58 AM


DJ- In a humbling admission of defeat, Wal-Mart says it will exit Germany by selling its 85 stores to European supermarket chain Metro. Wal-Mart will book a pre-tax loss of about $1 billion from the transaction.

WMT $44.14 +1.40% Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 10:46:42 AM

The COMP must get above the 20 dma within the next one or two trading sessions.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 10:46:40 AM

Massey Energy (MEE) $24.32 -16.45% Link ... getting drilled

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 10:45:59 AM


DJ- Shares drop 12% a day after the antivirus and security-software maker says an ongoing review of its practices and accounting for stock-option grants would likely force it to restate past results.

MFE $21.00 -12.57% Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 10:44:52 AM

The realities of middle-east conflict is starting to penentrate the thick skull of some politicians: there are no simple solutions.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 10:43:09 AM

Even GOOG has finally turned green.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 10:42:52 AM


DJ- Office-products retailer says earnings rise to $118 million, or 41c a share, as revenue increases 3.9% to $3.49 billion. Excluding one-time charges, company earns 43c a share, topping Wall Street expectations of 40c.

ODP $34.60 -6.86% Link ...

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 10:42:38 AM

July 28 (Bloomberg) -- Lebanon is keeping its army away from the battlefront between Israeli forces and Hezbollah fighters because it lacks the firepower to sway the conflict and fears it may spark a civil war by intervening.

"The Lebanese army won't disarm Hezbollah," President Emile Lahoud told reporters in Beirut yesterday. "Disarming Hezbollah by force may lead to a civil war." Stripping the "Party of God" of its weapons is Israel's main condition for a cease-fire to end fighting that has left at least 405 Lebanese and 51 Israelis dead since July 12. Israel says it will keep pounding Hezbollah targets in Lebanon until the group is driven from the border to a distance at which it can no longer launch rocket attacks against Israeli cities.

"There's no force in Lebanon that can keep Hezbollah from throwing rockets into Israel," said Mahmoun Fandy, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, in a telephone interview. "The government doesn't have the political will or strength to confront Hezbollah's militia, who could ransack the whole Lebanese state if they wanted to."

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 10:39:07 AM

SPX is back above 200 dma. TNX has broken 5% and we are slowly building a base for a real breakout rally.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/28/2006 10:36:59 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1486, raise stop to even.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 10:31:17 AM


DJ- Oil company's earnings rise to $4.35 billion, or $1.97 a share, including charges of about 13c a share related to last year's hurricanes. Revenue climbs 11% to $53.53 billion. Results fall short of EPS estimates of $2.21 on $60.33 billion in sales.

CVX $65.38 -3.46% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 10:27:10 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 10:13:43 AM

Baker Hughes (BHI) $77.66 -3.90% Link ... Earnings Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 10:04:49 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 10:00:26 AM

August Fed Funds Futures (ff06q) 94.70 +0.03% ... now predicting roughly 20% chance of 25 bp rate hike at Aug. 8 FOMC Meeting.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 9:52:15 AM

5-year down 6.7 bp at 4.916%

30-year down 5.3 bp at 5.058%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 9:50:47 AM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) plunging 5.0 bp to 4.99%.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 9:49:47 AM

Q2 Employment Cost Index +0.9% q/q

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 9:48:58 AM

Q2 Gross Domestic Product +2.5% q/q

Keene Little : 7/28/2006 9:48:28 AM

YM is now pressing back up against the top of its wedge pattern at about 11227 and yesterday's high. It's a good place to try a short play and keep your stop relatively tight.

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 9:48:01 AM

Q2 Chain Deflator +3.3% q/q

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 9:44:00 AM

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) $31.60 +0.95% ... Earnings Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 9:40:02 AM

Baker Hughes Int. (BHI) $77.84 -3.72% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/28/2006 9:39:34 AM

Chesapeake Energy CEO: US Gas Plays All Gone

Keene Little : 7/28/2006 9:15:44 AM

After an initial negative reaction to the bad GDP number (slowed to a 2.5% growth rate) and then a "but wait, that's good for the Fed" positive response, futures have settled back near the high of the overnight session. It's possible the ascending wedge patterns will continue a little higher today. Regardless, I'd be looking for weakness to short today.

Keene Little : 7/28/2006 8:30:44 AM

The ascending wedge patterns for the DOW and SPX are still holding but close to breaking down. SPX has its uptrend line from July 18th at about 1261.70 (cash) this morning. Yesterday's close was 1263.26. Link

The similar pattern for the DOW has its uptrend line near 11080 (it closed at 11100). A break below these uptrend lines would potentially mean a fast retrace of the entire bounce from July 18th since that's what these wedges do. This SPX daily chart is similar to the one I showed in last night's Wrap and it shows the potential for a large sideways triangle to play out through this summer, which means another trip down to the 1230 area. Link

Based on the internal price action (3-wave moves) I'm liking this idea more and more. It fits the seasonal picture as well (summer time trading) where the market can't go anywhere. This splits the difference between my two SPX scenarios that I've been tracking (more immediately bearish vs intermediate bullish). It says the market will simply hold on for a couple of months before taking a dump in the fall (minimum drop of 100 SPX and 1000 DOW points). In the meantime, take profits regularly.

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