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Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 11:38:02 PM

May, June, July Monthly Pivo Matrix found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 11:12:42 PM

Index Pivot Matrix for Tuesday at this Link

**New MONTHLY Pivot Levels

Keene Little : 7/31/2006 11:12:01 PM

I feel a wedgie when looking at this chart of ES. It continues to hold inside its ascending wedge pattern and Monday's consolidation makes it look like it's going to get another leg up inside this (maybe with a brief move down on Tuesday morning first). If it doesn't break down from here, closing the July 5th gap at 1288.25 or a little higher around 1290 could be the area to watch for a short play setup. Link

Keene Little : 7/31/2006 10:44:05 PM

Tuesday's pivot tables (new monthly pivots for August): Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 7/31/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 4:39:37 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 4:22:25 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 4:09:31 PM

DJ- EIA: US Retail Gasoline Avg. Price Up 0.1c On Week To $3.004

Keene Little : 7/31/2006 3:54:24 PM

The consolidation has taken on a sideways/up form and gives me the impression that we'll get another leg down tomorrow. But it may not drop much more than today's low before recovering. Just nothing happening today to give a better clue for direction. Wait and see is the best move here.

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 3:48:17 PM

Tomorrow's economic calendar is very busy:

7:30a.m. July Challenger Layoffs. Previous: +25%.

8:30a.m. June Personal Income. Consensus: +0.6%. Previous: +0.4%.

8:30a.m. June Personal Spending. Consensus: +0.4%. Previous: +0.4%.

10a.m. June Construction Spending. Consensus: +0.3%. Previous: -0.4%.

10a.m. June Pending Home Sales. Previous: +1.3%.

10a.m. July ISM Manufacturing Business Index. Consensus: 54. Previous: 53.8.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 3:46:33 PM

DJ- Midwest Grid Monitor Orders All Power To Be Made Available

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 3:46:00 PM

DJ- Midwest Electric Grid Monitor Issues Level I Emergency

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 3:33:28 PM

DJ- Treasury Sees Oct-Dec Qtr Net Borrowing of $104 Billion

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 3:24:40 PM

DJ- PJM Forecasts Record Mid-Atlantic Power Demand Tuesday

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 3:23:53 PM

DJ- Treasury Economist: Core Inflation 'Remains Under Control'

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 3:23:41 PM


Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 3:23:04 PM

DJ- Treasury Economist Sees Economic Growth Pace About 3% Rest of 2006

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 3:13:35 PM

WE have two markets trading above their major MAs (50, 100 and 200) and two markets trading below them thus I have a very hard time getting bullish or bearish right now and will sit on the sidelines (other than daytrading) until this clears up. I suspect the bears will ultimately be the victor but I will not be betting on it with my money.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 3:10:06 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 3:02:38 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 2:59:49 PM

As you can see the emini is QG but TS's symbol is QN. You will have to check with your charting platform for the symbol it uses.

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 2:58:24 PM

If you want to find out everything there is know about the Nat Gas emini visit this site. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 2:58:04 PM

SPY $127.73 -0.19% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 2:57:41 PM

YM 11,218

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 2:57:18 PM

Bomb Kills 18 Soldiers In NE Sri Lanka ... Ceasefire collapses

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 2:54:53 PM

Brazil's Central Bank Buys Dollars At BRL2.175

Keene Little : 7/31/2006 2:54:52 PM

I keep looking over at the charts, while I work on something else (my plane) to see if anything is happening. The market is clearly consolidating and waiting for something. This is starting to look more bullish since it should be consolidating recent gains rather than preparing for a dump.

But these sideways moves have fooled me enough to know I can't blindly buy it here and walk away. A failure from this kind of pattern usually goes quickly. As long as the uptrend line from the 21st holds (1279 now) I would say it's worth trying to buy it. We need a break down in order to get me on the short side now.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 2:48:23 PM

5-day Weather Forecasts Link

(Drag your mouse down High/Low Temperatures)

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 2:47:13 PM

I use the AD line and volume a great deal to help me determine direction so as you can see I have been scratching my head most of the day. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 2:45:43 PM

02:13 PM EDT Temperatures with Sept. Nat. Gas (ng06u) benchmark at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 2:37:58 PM

Continental Airlines (CAL) alert $26.31 -7.55% ... bold move below 6/28/06 short profile.

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 2:36:23 PM

Here is a chart of the Nat Gas Emini, QN. The Natural Gas big contract, NG, is delayed so the emini gives you a better intraday chart. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 2:33:44 PM

YM ... 11,227

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 2:33:40 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Natural-gas futures rallied to a more than a three-month high Monday, taking crude-oil futures higher in their midst, as the hot weather across much of the U.S. boosted demand for electricity.

Natural gas is used to generate around 18% of the nation's electricity production, according to statistics supplied by the Energy Information Administration.

"The heat which began in the West last week, has now spread to the high consumption regions and will not retreat until the weekend," Fimat said in a note to clients. "While this will make the market look a bit overbought, support could strengthen as Thursday's storage report approaches."

The benchmark September contract was last up 98 cents, or 13.7%, at $8.2 per million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. This marks the highest level for the contract since April 26.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 2:22:52 PM

Natural Gas Prices Up On East, Midwest Heat, Gas-Fired Power Demand

Marc Eckelberry : 7/31/2006 2:15:17 PM

Inflation always keeps moving up a bit even after the economy slows. Berananke knows that and he is not going to risk a recession at this point. I think they pause next week.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 2:14:16 PM

iShares Mexico (AMEX:EWW) $39.87 -2.03% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 2:09:44 PM

Telefonos De Mexico (TMX) $23.33 -1.97% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 2:08:16 PM

Bank of Mexico Raises 2006 GDP Growth View To 4%-4.5%

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 2:05:45 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Economic developments have made obsolete the Federal Reserve's 2-year-old strategy of a hiking interest rates at every meeting by a quarter of a percentage point, said Janet Yellen, the president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank on Monday.

"A gradual approach is likely to be better," Yellen said in a speech at Golden Gate University.

She forecast that the economy would grow at a slower pace in coming quarters, which should ease inflationary pressure, although she acknowledged that there has been no sign of this yet in the economic data. "We are at a delicate point for policy, when we are close to the end of the road," Yellen said.

"I do see a slowdown reigning in the economy, but ... inflation is too high," Yellen said. Yellen, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee this year and considered one of the most influential committee members, said she was not signaling what the Fed would do Aug. 8.

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 2:04:34 PM

Needless to say the limb went out on earlier today has been almost completely sawed off i.e. I have been totally wrong on market direction today.

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 2:01:23 PM

Since July 10th Nat Gas has rallied from a low of 5.39 to a high today at 7.95.

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 1:59:52 PM

I agree Marc but be careful and make sure you know how the contract trades; margin, pts/contract, etc.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/31/2006 1:55:44 PM

I would exit oil and go into natural gas at this point, that is the best energy play fro medium term.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/31/2006 1:54:47 PM

Ten year drops sub 5% again.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 1:54:27 PM

YM 5-minute interval chart found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/31/2006 1:54:08 PM

This bounce is a little suspicious, but the SOX is telling me to stay in.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/31/2006 1:50:16 PM

SOX goes green, once again.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/31/2006 1:46:13 PM

This is not to be used as an investment advice, but just to make you aware that no one rings a bell at bottoms and to be very suspiccious of mass exodus from a sector that is going to get a huge boost next year. It's a perfect set up, they made everyone get out of techs last month. It sure worked.

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 1:46:05 PM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- A federal court has denied ImClone Systems Inc.'s motion to have all claims against it dismissed in the latest chapter of an ongoing patent dispute with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Repligen Corp. over colon-cancer drug Erbitux. After trading in their respective shares was halted early Monday, Repligen (RGEN) ($2.98, +0.58, +24.2%) rocketed nearly 25% to $2.99 in midday action, while ImClone (IMCL) ( $32.65, -1.27, -3.7%) moved down more than 4% to $32.50. At their best level, Repligen shares reached $3.40.

In a statement issued early Monday, New York-based ImClone said U.S. district court in Massachusetts denied its motion for a summary judgment. ImClone had sought to have all claims against it dropped on the basis that the patent rights at issue had been exhausted.

"The case will now proceed to trial on the merits of ImClone Systems' other defenses, and the company intends to vigorously defend its position that, among other things, it does not infringe the subject patent," ImClone said.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 1:44:27 PM

YM short stop alert 11,237

Marc Eckelberry : 7/31/2006 1:43:02 PM

In forty years of doing this, he told me the game never changes and he knows all those brokers personally and how they have been working with techs to get prices down so that everyone can make big bucks next year, including stock option deals. They are putting out all the bad news they can now, that's the game.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/31/2006 1:40:37 PM

Just had an interesting chat with a neighbor. He's an ex IBM exec, manages about 30 million in the markets and has been doing this since the 70's, actively. He's an older guy, but very sharp. He's getting out of CSCO this week, but aside from that is staying fully invested in techs which he skooped up in large quantities at the July lows. He's been through this over and over again and is absolultely sanguine on the VISTA upgrade and the massively bullish implications for 2007. He is betting we put in the lows already. He's completely out of oil right now and has moved everything into the most out of favor area: techs. Brave guy, but sometimes, it pays to talk to these old timers. We will see, but I have had the same feeling for the past few weeks, which is why I bought NVDA and INTC.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 1:19:58 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 1:16:35 PM


Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 1:13:10 PM

SPX NH/NL currently 8:4

Friday's tally was 23:10

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 1:13:01 PM

I wish I had taken Jeff's short earlier.

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 1:12:38 PM

AD volume to new daily lows and AD line will probably follow.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 1:12:33 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 7/31/2006 1:05:52 PM

I can't quite figure out if today's sideways consolidation is bullish and if we should therefore expect another leg up soon or if it's part of a larger downward correction which would mean we'll get another leg down before the day is finished. Another leg down to at least the uptrend line at 1277.50 now is the way I'm leaning.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 1:04:29 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/31/2006 1:01:16 PM

So far, there is nothing here to suggest this anything but a normal day of profit taking after the big run up of last week. SOX and SMH holding up very well, and NQ is solidly above weekly pivot but more importantly its 20 dma. We will see if the selling increases at the close, but so far the ADVDEC lines are only mildly bearish on the NQ side. The bid in oil is a problem, but it has to do with that russian leak, nothing overly dramatic. The long stay open, target remains 1533/1534.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 12:52:34 PM

YM short lower stop alert ... to 11,237.

YM 11,226

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 12:51:23 PM

Phelps Dodge Corp. (PD) (87.80, +6.30, +7.7%) was upgraded to overweight from underweight at Prudential Equity Group, which cited diminished business risks and financial dilution now that future partner Inco has dropped its bid for Falconbridge. The broker also told clients that odds will likely shift toward Phelps Dodge becoming an acquisition target if it stands alone and even if it successfully combines with Inco. Finally Prudential said the shares would likely rebound if it doesn't succeed in buying Inco as investors don't like the goodwill, new shares or added debt. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 12:44:36 PM

YM 11,225

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 12:44:22 PM

SPY $127.62 -0.28% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 12:44:02 PM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 381.03 -0.82% ... edges below WEEKLY Pivot.

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 12:39:07 PM

Jeff and out of the its afternoon consolidation.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 12:35:03 PM

YM 11,219 ... slips to afternoon low

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 12:34:15 PM



Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 12:31:42 PM

YM 11,230 ... need a magnifying glass to see volume on 5-minute interval chart

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 12:30:07 PM

Wal-Mart (WMT) $44.53 +0.15% ... backfills this morning's gap higher.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 12:28:44 PM

SPY $127.70 -0.21% .... quiet

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 12:28:18 PM

It has been a good day to catch up on your summer reading. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 12:27:42 PM

S&P Bank Index (BIX.X) 381.31 -0.74% ... sitting on its WEEKLY Pivot (381.23)

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 12:20:13 PM


DJ- Wal-Mart posts a 2.4% gain in same-store U.S. sales for July, landing on the high end of its forecast for the month and rebounding from a relatively weak showing in June, a result that bodes well for other retailers.

WMT $44.64 +0.40% Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 12:15:29 PM


DJ- Auto-parts supplier posts 57% slump in fiscal 3Q net income of $20 million, or 29c a share, amid work stoppage at Canadian plant. EPS excluding items of 73c is 4c above estimates. Firm raises earnings forecast.

ARM $16.35 +0.67% Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 12:09:23 PM

Avon's Q2 Net Drops 54% Amid Gain

DJ- Cosmetics company has net income of $150.9 million, or 33c a share, which includes 6c in restructuring costs. Revenue rises 5% to $2.08 billion. Analysts predicted EPS of 35c on revenue of $2.06 billion.

AVP $29.71 -9.44% Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 12:04:04 PM


DJ- A meeting scheduled for today to address the creation of an international military force to be deployed in southern Lebanon is postponed indefinitely, the Cable News Network reports.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 12:02:05 PM


DJ- Parent of United Airlines reports net income of $119 million, or 93c a share, as revenue increases 16% to $5.11 billion. Results are in-line with last week's announcement from the company. Firm trims full-year forecast on capacity growth.

UAUA $26.70 -2.97% Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 11:59:33 AM

Dow Jones Transport Avg. (TRAN) 4,387 -0.63% ... either side of its rising 200-day SMA (4,402)

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 11:58:01 AM

Fed's Yellen:

DJ- Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen said Monday monetary policy appears near where it needs to be given a moderation in economic growth and the impact of past rate hikes, but added central bankers need to watch incoming data closely to determine where to head next with rates.

"It appears to me that the federal funds rate currently lies in a vicinity that is roughly appropriate for the Fed to attain its key objectives over the medium run," Yellen said. But she added "since all such approaches are inherently imprecise, policy must be responsive to the data that actually emerges."

Yellen said the data the Fed must watch is not limited to statistics on "inflation, output and employment" but should include "energy prices, the dollar, the stock market, long-term interest rates, housing prices and inflation expectations."

Yellen was speaking before a group at the Golden Gate University in San Francisco. Her comments come amid considerable uncertainty about what the Fed's next move will be. Many in financial markets expect what is now a 5.25% overnight target rate will be maintained when policy makers next meet on Aug. 8, but many economists believe rising inflation pressure will likely drive the Fed to boost that key rate to 5.50%. Yellen is a voting member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 11:54:19 AM

DJ- Fed's Yellen: Funds Rate Currently 'Roughly Appropriate'

'Policy Must Be Responsive' To New Data

Must Be Mindful Of Monetary Policy Lags

Must Watch Many Factors, Including Dollar, Stocks

Expects Future US Growth Under Sustainable Rate

Recent Inflation Data 'Disappointing'

Current Inflation Over 'Comfort Zone'

Critical That Inflation Should Moderate

Housing Price Gain Moderartion Orderly

Energy Prices A 'Wild Card'

Keene Little : 7/31/2006 11:47:06 AM

The market has been stuck in neutral since Friday morning's opening burst higher. While it looks weak here I don't discount what the bulls can do, especially since price is working its way sideways/down towards the uptrend line from July 21st. If that line (bottom of ascending wedge) holds, which is currently near 1276.50, then we could see price continue to chop higher from there. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 11:46:22 AM

YM 5-minute interval chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 11:40:40 AM

Day trade short YM alert short YM here at 11,229 , stop 11,255 , target 11,185

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 11:39:56 AM

Tbonds have not broken their overnight range yet.

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 11:38:30 AM

Well once again I will go out on a limb and start sawing - I think new daily lows are in store for us.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 11:35:05 AM

Scottish Re Plunges as CEO Quits, Loss Looms

Insurer's shares plung 72% after the holding company, which engages in the reinsurance of life insurance, annuities and annuity-type products in the U.S. said Scott Willkomm had resigned as chief executive and the company warned of a loss from continuing operations.

SCT $4.43 -72.31% Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 11:25:58 AM


DJ- Health-benefits provider credits its Medicare Advantage plan with pushing up net income to $89.5 million, or 53c a share. Analysts were expecting EPS of 35c. Revenue climbs 52% to $5.41 billion. Full-year earnings may top estimates.

HUM $54.47 +5.68% Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 11:24:37 AM


DJ- Meat processor's shares fall 3% after it says it expects fiscal 2006 loss of 41c-51c a share, much wider than analysts' mean estimate for a 4c loss. Tyson swings to much-wider-than-expected 3Q net loss of 15c a share as revenue falls 5% to $6.38 billion.

TSN $14.21 -2.47% Link

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 11:13:48 AM

Internals are just not telling me anything today except this is not a good day to try trading. However, fades should work today.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 11:10:49 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 11:03:01 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 10:59:59 AM

Goldman Sachs (GS) $153.18 +0.96% ... testing downward trend (all-time high to 05/08/06 relative high) for first time.

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 10:56:49 AM

TRIN as fallen below its PDL but VIX is still above its PDH. Internals are now neutral.

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 10:56:02 AM

AD volume has spiked above 0 now but AD line is still below 0 at -192.

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 10:55:08 AM

If you took the YM short you should probably be out and depending on where you got in you could have easily got 15 points. I didn't because I entered at 11236 and the low was 11223.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 10:46:04 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 10:44:11 AM

Once Nat Gas broke this bullish wedge and closed above the 100EMA this chart turned bullish. Unfortunately though this is a volatile market and your losses can add up quickly so you need to watch it closely. I will be a buyer if it returns back to the 50EMA. Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 10:39:02 AM

QQQQ $37.18 +0.18% ... QQQ-HK currently $0.75 x $0.80

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 10:38:14 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Business activity in the Chicago region accelerated slightly in July, the National Association for Supply Management-Chicago said Monday.

The Chicago purchasing managers index rose to 57.9% from 56.5% in June. The survey asks purchasing managers at manufacturers and other businesses in the region about business conditions in their firm and industry. Economists were expecting the index to fall to 55.8%, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch.

Readings over 50% indicate growth in the region. "This is not a big enough move in this volatile index to signal any real change in the manufacturing sector, which remains in decent shape," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics. The report comes one day before the closely watched national manufacturing sentiment index released by the Institute for Supply Management.

Economists are looking for little change from June's 53.8% in July.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 10:38:04 AM

Swing trade covered call alert ... Let's place an order to sell a covered call(s) against the 1/2 bullish QQQQ position and look to sell one (1) (for risk managed account) of the QQQQ Aug $37 Calls (QQQ-HK) for $1.00.

Target for this trade is/was $37.90

Marc Eckelberry : 7/31/2006 10:37:46 AM

Bulls might be eyeing 50 dma at 1557 this week, but I will take 23.6% 2006 (or 76.4) at 1534.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/31/2006 10:35:01 AM

I have to step away,. Watch 1530 and 1534 should we breakout. Key support is today's lows. Sell to close stays at 1533.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/31/2006 10:33:23 AM

I might get out any second.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/31/2006 10:33:09 AM

Poole is a pain in the you know what. I hope Bernanke stays away from that guy's constant hawkishness.

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 10:31:23 AM

LOUISVILLE, KY (MarketWatch) -- St. Louis Fed president William Poole said he hasn't made up his mind whether the Fed should raise rates at its next meeting on Aug. 8.

"I am still 50-50, we still have important data yet to come," Poole told reporters after a speech to the Southern Legislative Conference.

Economists have said the July unemployment report may be pivotal to the Fed's interest rate decision next week.

In his prepared remarks, Poole concentrated on China, saying the growth of the Chinese economy will provide U.S. firms with important export opportunities and U.S. workers with more and better-paying jobs.

But financial markets were eager to hear Poole's remarks on the economic outlook, his first since the previous FOMC meeting on June 28-29. Poole said the data since June 29 "are tipped in many negative respects, both in respect to growth, real growth, employment and the inflation front."

The economy is pulling in two different directions, with inflation pressures rising, but growth slowing, Poole sa

Marc Eckelberry : 7/31/2006 10:30:40 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1486, stop 1496, sell to close at 1533.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/31/2006 10:30:25 AM

Change of target to 23.6% 1534.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/31/2006 10:29:02 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
cancel sell to close

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 10:26:57 AM

My stop on the YM fade is 11256.

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 10:26:42 AM

NQ is now testing its previous day highs at 1522 and should find resistance here.

Keene Little : 7/31/2006 10:26:41 AM

Nice save by the bulls. Let's see if they can drive this up to the ES 1288 area and close that gap.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/31/2006 10:25:24 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1486, stop 1496, sell to close 1529.

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 10:24:55 AM

TICKS +1000 YM 11236. I am going to fade this one.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/31/2006 10:24:43 AM

Bulls are back.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/31/2006 10:24:17 AM

Now the AD line is geting better. QQV still green though.

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 10:23:59 AM

YM Pivot Levels found at this Link

(Regular Session H/L/C)

Marc Eckelberry : 7/31/2006 10:23:17 AM

If we get a run, target is 1530

Marc Eckelberry : 7/31/2006 10:22:48 AM

This little bump is on increasing negative ad line. I might exit.

Keene Little : 7/31/2006 10:21:46 AM

After only a small bounce from this morning's low if price now drops to a new low that should see some follow through to the downside.

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 10:18:12 AM

These two are not giving any indications as to direction. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/31/2006 10:15:52 AM

NQ weekly pivot is 1501 and it is not unusual, even on a bull run, to get that test during the week. We are still long from 1486, stop 1496 and I will leave it that way for now.

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 10:15:47 AM

I am certainly not surprised the new daily highs did not have follow through. The internals are not bullish.

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 10:14:39 AM

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - Avon Products Inc. said Monday that charges linked to its sweeping restructuring sunk second-quarter earnings by 54%.

New York-based Avon (AVP) ( $29.70, -3.13, -9.5%) , the largest direct seller of cosmetics and body-care products, said it earned $150.9 million, or 33 cents a share for the June quarter compared with $328.6 million, or 69 cents a share a year ago. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 7/31/2006 10:14:23 AM

SMH 20 dma is 31.04, QQQQ is 36.89. SMH looks slightly stronger when comparing on that basis and that is good for the NASDAQ. As you can see, QQQQ 20 dma was exact support. Pretty obvious at this point.

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 10:11:33 AM

Gold breaks its overnight lows and both Oil and Nat Gas are falling.

Marc Eckelberry : 7/31/2006 10:11:31 AM

The prior highs to Friday of NQ 1510 are holding up as support as is the 20 dma accross the board. This is what bulls need to preserve and it will just be a normal pullback. Anything more will cast doubt on this rally.

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 10:08:47 AM

All markets are now making new daily highs - so much for my "reading" of the market today.

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 10:07:37 AM


Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 10:03:04 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 10:02:58 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- C&F Financial Corp. (CFFI) said Monday it's delaying the release of its second-quarter results following the discovery of evidence suggesting two former employees embezzled roughly $2.2 million from its mortgage business. The company said it's notified its audit committee of the evidence, and that an investigation of the matter will be conducted by its general counsel, outside counsel and external as well as internal auditors. C&F also said it's notified its insurance company of the potential loss, and that it believes there is sufficient coverage to recoup the potential amount, less a $75,000 deductible. The company also said it doesn't expect changes to its historical financial statements but that it anticipates recording a charge for the deductible in the second quarter. C&F expects to release its second-quarter results within two weeks. Trading in C&F shares is currently halted for news dissemination.

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 10:00:59 AM


Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 10:00:04 AM

I still think the mostly likely scenario is a break of daily lows but now I see YM breaking to new daily highs. So far it has been a very hard day to read.

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 9:55:01 AM

The kind of price movement we are seeing this morning is quite typical of summer but since we have gotten used to volatility this summer it seems very tame.

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 9:47:33 AM

Price is just not going anywhere but the AD line and volume suggest downward is the most likely avenue they will take.

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 9:45:18 AM

Gold remains bullish as long as it stays above that red trendline from November 2005. If long Gold I still believe a close below that trendline and the 100EMA to be bearish and would start to close some of my bullish positions Link

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 9:40:16 AM

SPY $127.68 -0.23% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 9:39:44 AM

QQQQ $37.00 -0.25% ...

Jeff Bailey : 7/31/2006 9:39:22 AM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $31.54 +0.38% ... edge above the seemingly key $31.51 mark.

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 9:34:31 AM

VIx opens above its PDH which is bearish and confirms the ADs but the TRIN is gyrating around 0.79 and below its PDL. Of course you need to wait for about 5 minutes before you can get a good feel for the TRIN.

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 9:33:13 AM

AD line is -478 and AD volume below 0 so the bears have the reins.

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 9:32:02 AM

NQ of course remains bearish as well and is another reason I would be very careful if thinking the market has returned to a bullish mode. Link

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 9:29:19 AM

ER has not closed above its 100EMA or above any of its major MAs therefore remains bearish and should be taken into consideration when putting on long term bullish positions. Link

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 9:22:19 AM

YM also closed above the 100EMA and the downward red trendline. Of course the bulls have to break the July 7th swing high at 11339 (magenta trendline) before they are out of the woods but that seems quite likely now. Link

Keene Little : 7/31/2006 9:18:22 AM

It would be nice to see ES jump up and close its July 5th gap at 1288.25 but we might not get it. If this morning's gap down continues lower we'll have to then see if there will be a push back up to close this morning's gap. It's a little tricky for an early entry this morning.

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 9:17:08 AM

ES closed above its 100EMA and above the downward red trendline and this chart has now turned bullish. I keep kicking myself for my bearish bias and ignoring the MACD divergences, I have been trading long enough that I should have known better. We are now into buy the dips. Link

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 9:04:41 AM

ABUJA (MarketWatch) -- Nigeria's Oil Minister Edmund Daukoru said Monday it wasn't clear when over 700,000 barrels a day of crude oil output shut in by militant attacks would be returning to production.

"You have to be patient with the government and the government has to be patient with the communities," he told reporters on the sidelines of an industry conference in the capital.

Daukoru added some oil companies had "preemptively" shut down operations because of fears of attacks on the facilities. Around 700,000 b/d output from companies including Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSA), Agip and Chevron (CVX) is currently shut in due to the attacks in the oil-rich Niger Delta.

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 9:03:02 AM

Dateline WSJ The U.S. said it had consensus for a United Nations Security Council resolution on Lebanon, including a cease-fire to be passed this week, but left contentious details of its proposal unclear.

The push toward a diplomatic end to the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah came as fighting continued. Israeli planes hit targets in southern Lebanon on Monday after Hezbollah guerrillas blasted an Israeli tank and injured three Israeli soldiers, breaking a brief respite in 20 days of fighting. Before the fighting resumed, pickup trucks and cars loaded with people streamed north as thousands of civilians trapped in south Lebanon's war zone for three weeks took advantage of the brief lull to escape.

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 8:54:22 AM

Economic reports to watch for today include:

10a.m. July Chicago Purchasing Managers Index. Consensus: 56.8. Previous: 56.5.

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 8:52:28 AM

Overnight Oil broke its previous day low with a tag of 72.675 but the reaction from that low was like touching a hot stove and within a 1/2 hour Oil retraced and made a new overnight high at 74.00. That was a violent move overnight, even for Oil.

Gold broke its PDH overnight with a high of 651.30 but was not able to retain it and immediately fell back to its previous day range. It did make a few more attempts at that high but was not able to break through. I see the break of its PDH as bullish for Gold. Once again this is not a market you want to try and short.

I wanted to try a long in Natural Gas but with the family issues I had over the last few days was not able to watch the position so didn't take it. Hopefully this market will retrace so I can get in on a dip.

Tbonds were neutral overnight Link

Jane Fox : 7/31/2006 8:41:24 AM

Good Morning all. Well we certainly had a much more bullish week last week than I expected but then again the market is very good at doing the unexpected.

All the markets traded in a very narrow range overnight with no breaks of previous day highs. Not much to say about the overnight trading here. Link

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