Option Investor
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Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2006 12:56:44 AM

On April 27, 2006, OMX Link (see gap higher on bar chart) the company reported blowout earnings. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2006 12:44:51 AM

BA $78.17 +0.96% Link ... gave a reversing lower PnF sell signal on Monday and holds critical near-term support above $76.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2006 12:44:45 AM

OMX $39.37 -4.23% Link (see Friday's MM at 10:52:44 , 10:55:25 , 10:56:08)

EK $19.20 -13.55% Link

These were the two stocks that had the narrower S&P 100 Bullish % ($BPOEX) Link slipping lower.

Jeff Bailey : 8/2/2006 12:18:20 AM

Index Pivot Matrix for Wednesday at this Link ... With tonight's observations of heavy PUT open interest that is currently OUT the money, VIX.X will be key for traders to measure put buying/call selling (higher VIX) and puts selling/call buying (lower VIX).

The first day of the month, the VIX popped its head above MONTHLY Pivot, but was reversed. I would think SPY/SPX/ES traders observe where OI is at, the shape of market internals, to fully comprehend my comment today that I feel "great pressure building."

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 11:52:33 PM

Over the years I've had requests to add various indexes to the Pivot Matrix. However screen limitations (vertical) make it impossible to add the Dow Transports, Russell 2000, 5-year and 30-year yields.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 11:43:09 PM

Dorsey/Wright's S&P 500 Bullish % (BPSPX) shows a decline of 0.6%, so a net loss of 3 stocks to reversing lower PnF sell signals Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 11:30:10 PM

SPY August Option Montage at this Link ... Similar "look" as QQQQ, but HUGE put OI at both $124 and $125 strikes certainly seemed to be defended today. Roughly 16.4 million SPY at those two strikes.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 11:24:25 PM

QQQQ August Option Montage at this Link ... More than 3:1 put/call at $36/$37 strike. This is the weakest index and traders need to be monitoring QQQQ $36 closely. A break there could have $36 Puts sellers looking to hedge that open interest.

Keene Little : 8/1/2006 11:07:17 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 8/1/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 9:49:43 PM

Trade Recap
Day : NQ +7 (+$140 per)
Week: NQ +7 (+$140 per)

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 9:48:15 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Overnight signal: Long NQ at 1480, stop 1475.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 9:47:43 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 9:47:13 PM

There is confluence daily s1 and weekly s1 at 1479. I am going to exit the long for the overnight session and enter a new signal.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 7:12:10 PM

Not a bank, or financial in the bunch ... NASDAQ-100 (NDX.X) reverses back lower with today's trade at 1,480 Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 7:10:46 PM

NASDAQ Comp ($COMPQ) Link ... reverses back lower with today's trade at 2,060.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 7:09:41 PM

NYSE Composite ($NYA) holding tough after recent bullish triangle Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 6:55:18 PM

StockCharts.com's S&P 500 Bullish % ($BPSPX) Link shows a net loss of 1.10%, or 5.5 stocks (let's say 5) to reversing lower PnF sell signals, to 48.90%.

Nothing meaningful for the SPX Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 6:34:41 PM

August Fed Funds futures (ff06q) 94.68 currently predicting roughly 30% probablility of 25bp hike at Tuesday's meeting.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 6:34:36 PM

Today's lone sell program premium came at 10:00-10:05 AM EDT, just as the 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) reached a session high of 50.18, or 5.018%. And WEEKLY Pivot.

I believe "The Market" is telling us that it is focused on what the Fed is going to do, or not do at Tuesday's meeting.

To say I am "disappointed" with the QQQQ and SMH action today would be an understatement. However, the interest rate sensitive banks and even the homebuilders seemed to save the day for the S&P.

Same as it has been the past couple of months.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 6:18:48 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Today's Activity


Swing trade stopped on the 1/2 bullish position in the QQQQ at $36.30 ($-0.39/share, or -1.06%)

Swing trade covered 1/4 short position of the Expeditors Intl. (EXPD) at the offer of $40.02 ($+4.88/share, or +10.87%). Still holding 1/4 position short.

Adjusted/lowered stops for SPY-TV and EXPD

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 5:56:40 PM

Swing trade put lower stop alert ... Let's lower the stop for the S&P Depository Receipt SPY Aug. $126 Puts (SPY-TV) back to $128.25 in the underlying.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 5:27:35 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 4:40:29 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 4:41:10 PM

I don't think this is "The Market" talking today. This is low volume summer trading, up or down. But if it is the market talking (I hate all that reverence for what is a completely schizo operaton), look at bonds: they are often right, not equities. That is where the big money trades, the banks and so forth, so if the Ten year is falling, it means more than QQQQ being daytraded by retail traders on holiday from their regular job. What the market has in store, we have no idea. But I do know one thing as a trader: every month this year has been pretty much the opposite of last year. If that trend continues, August will be bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 4:32:22 PM

Israeli Planes Hit 5 Suspected Hezbollah Sites

DJ- Israeli warplanes late Tuesday attacked at least five suspected Hezbollah positions near Baalbek in eastern Lebanon's Bekaa Valley, three hours before the official end of a two-day pause in the air war.

Witnesses said fighter jets and helicopters were still above Baalbek. There was no information immediately available on what was hit or if there were casualties.

The ancient city of Baalbek, a major Hezbollah stronghold, repeatedly has been pounded by Israeli fighter jets since the fighting began 21 days ago.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 4:19:46 PM

I was thinking this morning that the red trendline or the 50EMA would provide support to the YM but the bears were able to bring it all the way down to the 200EMA, which held nicely.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 4:16:14 PM

Notice where YM found support today. Right at the 200EMA. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 4:15:09 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPY $127.26

Keene Little : 8/1/2006 4:13:25 PM

In looking at the correction today, after the initial drop, the 2nd leg up this afternoon into the close reached the level where it was 162% of the 1st leg up this morning, at 1277.50. That should be the setup for the next leg down tomorrow morning.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 4:05:02 PM

Amex Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 338.66 +2.87% ... goes out righ under WEEKLY R1 338.74.

If anything, sign that MARKET has some fear of inflation.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 4:01:03 PM

California Pizza (CPKI) $25.80 -2.30% ... goes out at/near lows of the session.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 4:00:40 PM

ES never even tested 10 day ma.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 3:59:36 PM

SPY $127.17 ... $127.00 close?

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 3:59:14 PM

QQQQ $36.50

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 3:58:43 PM

Tough trade ... take'm when you got'm

EXPD $40.00

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 3:57:41 PM

yeah, but we have oil inv., Jane. It never ends...

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 3:56:46 PM

But I will take 10 dma at 1493.50.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 3:56:24 PM

I am not going to get my 1500 weekly P close.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 3:55:53 PM

There are no major economic reports due out tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 3:54:49 PM

SPY $127.21 -0.50% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 3:54:53 PM

They keep dumping techs, but it is where you want to be for the next quarter, so pick up the deals. Forget energy and forget the DOW where everyone is going. Techs will shine, especially anything related to Vista. Have you been at Fry's recently? I did some research. Everyone is insisting on Intel dual core, by the way. And they are buying bigger and more expensive laptops.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 3:53:10 PM

VIX 15.03 +0.53% ... big reversal here (call buying/put selling)

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 3:50:17 PM

My goodness me thinks the bulls have pulled the proverbial rabbit out of the hat.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 3:50:08 PM

MSFT green. SMH easily found support above 10 dma. I bet we close right at 1500/1501.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 3:48:11 PM

ES's daily high is 1278 and ES is now at 1276.50.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 3:47:28 PM

VIX is now testing its PDH and at this rate ES may break to a new daily high.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 3:45:46 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 382.12 +0.11% ... gets green

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 3:43:12 PM

TICKS +1000 and the 3 min CCI is +178. I would not short this based on the VIX.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 3:41:44 PM

He is also keenly aware of the price of rentals and the effect on inflation. Raising rates exacerbates it. I will give him more credit than he has been given lately. Of course if he raises, I would vote for the firing squad.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 3:41:10 PM

Bearish swing trade close out 1/4 position alert ... Let's cover 1/4 (1/2 of the 1/2) Expeditors Intl. (EXPD) short here at $40.02.

SPY $127.08

QQQQ $36.45

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 3:39:48 PM

QQQQ volume barely over half of normal. What utter nonsense. This was one big farce and they are just setting up shorts for a squeeze, once again. Jobs on Friday is key, not these up and down readings that change every day. Bernanke is MORE WORRIED about a RECESSION now, period. He has given those signals and I trust the fed fund futures as well as the Ten year more than all the pundits out there.

Keene Little : 8/1/2006 3:38:56 PM

If I use SPX instead of ES, due to the different closing prices, it looks more bearish here (same for the DOW). After the sharp drop this morning, below its uptrend line from July 18th, it's been consolidating that drop. It should continue lower once this sideways move is finished. Link

Keene Little : 8/1/2006 3:34:08 PM

We seem to be getting a lot of these kinds of days in the summer time--one and done kinds of moves and then the rest of the day is spent consolidating. All you have to do is figure out which direction to trade before that one-and-done move starts and trading will be a piece of cake. Kind of like the soccer goalie trying to figure out which way to go before the opposing player kicks the penalty shot.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 3:32:13 PM

My goodness VIX breaks to new daily lows and this should put a lot of upward pressure on ES.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 3:31:19 PM

After all this and -.50, we are back at the 1486 long. Should have just kept my stop at 1479 and gone fishing, and not trade it.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 3:29:42 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1486, stop 1485.50.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 3:29:21 PM

now +3 partial

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 3:29:20 PM

Could be $BPSPX and 48% too.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 3:28:43 PM

It could be Marc. Correlative too with WEEKLY Pivot.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 3:28:04 PM

These two are out of sync and I would be very worried if short. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 3:27:50 PM

If we hold SPX 1267 a little longer, shorts will cover. They are just as worried as bulls here.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 3:24:33 PM

But it is very dodgy.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 3:24:52 PM

SPX holds 200 dma and that is why we are seeing this churning.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 3:23:42 PM

It's SPX 200 dma, Jeff, or close (1267).

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 3:22:47 PM

VIX is now tesing its daily lows.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 3:22:32 PM

Scratch that, did not trigger a +2

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 3:21:52 PM

SPY 5-minute interval chart with same WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement, as well as QCharts' DAILY Pivot Levels turned on. Can't figure out yesterday morning's opening action and $126.62. Whatever it is, it is a key level in my mind.

Chart Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 3:21:31 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -
Lomg 1486, stop 1484.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 3:18:38 PM

I don;t know jow this will resolve, but it will be quick.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 3:18:20 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1486, stop 1483

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 3:16:41 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 3:14:54 PM

I am jumping ahead of weekly s1 for now.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 3:14:46 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 3:14:22 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1486, stop 1483.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 3:13:49 PM

QQQQ volume is at 62% normal. This is not, I repeat, not a reliable day to think short longer term.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 3:12:15 PM

We have a quadruple bottom off QQQQ 36.25 zone from late July.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 3:09:56 PM

At one point, it will be better to go back to stocks. Add inflation and a lower ten year, you get a lousy return.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 3:09:19 PM

TNX at 49.83,

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 3:06:53 PM

Here she comes.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 3:05:36 PM

I would not be short ES with the VIX almost to daily lows. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 3:04:31 PM

Back. SMH holds 10 day ma, 1483 might be close enough to weekly s1.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 3:03:49 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 3:00:57 PM

SPY $126.87 -0.76% ... yesterday morning's open was "weird" as the SPY quickly dropped to $126.62 and snapped back up to $127.50.

Every time the SPY has approached that level today, buyers have stood firm.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 2:43:33 PM

SPY 126.66 -0.93% ... ready for the "sledge hammer"

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 2:42:55 PM

Look out below if $36.22 gets sliced

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 2:42:21 PM

Swing trade bullish stop alert for the 1/2 position in the QQQQ $36.30

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 2:30:00 PM

QQQQ $36.36 -1.99% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 2:29:40 PM

I feel great pressure building in the markets

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 2:29:23 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 381.14 -0.14% ... challenging WEEKLY Pivot from underneath.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 2:27:14 PM

I have to step away. This is a relatively safe entry as it will put NQ near -40.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 2:26:51 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Go long at 1480.50, stop 1475.50.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 2:26:29 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 2:24:32 PM

On June 16th QN (Natural Gas emini) hit a high of 7.44. Today's low so far is 7.44. Time to go long? Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 2:22:06 PM

NQ Exit/Entry Point Alert
Long 1489, stop 1487.
If stopped, new signal is long 1480.50, stop 1475.50.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 2:19:56 PM


Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 2:10:30 PM

Bearish swing trade short lower stop alert ... on Expeditors Intl. (EXPD) $39.66 -12.71% ... to $41.32.

$1.66 to target of $38.00.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 2:08:26 PM

what has happened to the one advantage of qcharts, the real time pc ratio??? Useless.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 2:08:07 PM

GM posts more than 22% drop in U.S. vehicle sales for July. Details to follow shortly.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 2:07:13 PM

Ryland (RYL) $41.00 +0.36% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 2:06:38 PM

Homebuilders edge green ... DJUSHB 603.53 +0.11% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 2:05:20 PM

If stopped, we are even for the dy and wait for a lower set up. This way, we are covered in case we get an upside reversal at Nymex close.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 2:04:25 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1489, stop 1487.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 2:03:06 PM

watch NQ 1494.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 2:02:49 PM

SMH holding 10 dma was a minor trigger for short covering.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 2:02:11 PM

Well we lost a one point advantage. +2 exit from 1486 and re-entry at 1489. Not a big deal and a safe way to play it.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 2:01:44 PM

Black & Decker (BDK) $70.23 -0.39% ... below our very profitable short cover points, but still holding gap lower earnings of $70.00.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 2:00:51 PM

Just in time.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 2:00:38 PM

Override the signal at 1480.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 2:00:29 PM

The New York Times (NYT) $22.15 -0.09% ... Still near recent bearish covering points.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 1:59:58 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1489, stop 1486.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 1:59:19 PM

Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) $10.50 -1.60% ... still hanging around its PnF chart's bearish vertical count.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 1:59:39 PM

Not sure anymore we get a bounce before the close, but we will get one tomorrow, most likely. S3 days and -30 plus always do, unless we are setting up for new year lows accross the board. I doubt it. Not before the jobs and Feds. They want to sucker in more bears before the fed meeting.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 1:57:25 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $17.59 -1.62% ... below WEEKLY S1 $17.69.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 1:56:45 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $23.99 -0.29% ... holding tough.

WEEKLY Pivot $24.19 : WEEKLY S1 $23.78.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 1:55:32 PM

NQ ticks getting worse. One more drop.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 1:55:16 PM

Intel (INTC) $17.56 -2.44% ... session low $17.50 and not test of WEEKLY S1 ($17.47)

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 1:55:03 PM

SMH 60.48 is the line in the sand as is COMP 2058.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 1:54:19 PM

I might take this flush

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 1:52:16 PM

Big bounce coming.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 1:52:04 PM

SMH perfect support at 10 day ma.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 1:51:25 PM

SPY 126.93 -0.71% .... back above WEEKLY Pivot

QQQQ $36.41 -1.85% ... session low was $36.33 (safe for now)

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 1:51:05 PM

I should not have exited. This is summer crap and they will bounce it. We are very oversold 30 mn with a bullish divergence.

Keene Little : 8/1/2006 1:46:09 PM

We got the break down from the little ascending wedge and then a retest of it before dropping a little further. These are all very minor moves but the pattern worked. Now we'll see if ES can hold at or above 1269 which is where the uptrend line currently resides. The previous low on July 27th at 1267 could also act as support. Another minor low today would give us a 5-wave move down from Friday afternoon so that should be followed by a bounce. That's why I think the 1269 area will hold for now.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 1:44:35 PM

VIX 15.75 +5.35% ... no measure at WEEKLY R1 to this point.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 1:43:40 PM

Ryland Group (RYL) $40.43 -1.02% ... off session low of $39.56.

WEEKLY Pivot $39.72

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 1:42:22 PM

Homebuilders -0.82% ... showing some sign of relative strength.

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) down 0.3 bp at 4.985%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 1:41:02 PM

SPY $126.82 -0.80% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 1:40:13 PM

QQQQ $36.37 -1.96% ... in that sliver of support $36.36-$36.39.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 1:38:54 PM

Midwest ISO: Level 3 Electric Emergency "Unlikely"

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 1:38:11 PM

Israel Min: Aerial Bombing Halt To End At 22:00 GMT Tuesday

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 1:37:28 PM

Venezuela July CPI Up 2.4% vs. Forecast of +1.5%

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 1:34:56 PM

Here is the deal. at NQ -32, we have a good chance of getting close to a -40 day, but it is very rare to get more than that, so a long trade at weekly s1 (1479.50) is a very high odds play. If we even get there.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 1:33:47 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long NQ at 1480, stop 1475.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 1:33:39 PM

YM and NQ to new daily lows and ES is not far behind. YM was the market to short today.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 1:31:29 PM

I wil take it up at weekly s1 or close. Looks like we are headed there.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 1:31:08 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 1:30:23 PM

I don;t like it here.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 1:28:10 PM

Forget scalping now, we are getting ready for a big move either way.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 1:26:20 PM

Now if price holds or falls and ticks rise, you get your reversal.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 1:23:06 PM

QQQQ alert $36.38 ... probes morning low.

The worst may not be over

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 1:22:52 PM

There we go. You see how the ticks gave us that warning?

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 1:22:21 PM

They do want that weekly s1

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 1:21:30 PM

When price holds and tick drops, be careful if long.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 1:20:45 PM

all of a sudden we get a tick drop to -551 (NQ) with price holding. That is bad for bulls. This is very difficult work here for scalpers especially with NQ. There is no clear direction outlook here so I would stay out or be in with a wider stop.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 1:15:16 PM

INTC has found resistance at the green downward trendline and the 50EMA. Macd is also trying to make a bearish cross below the 0 line. This is not a healthy chart. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 1:15:02 PM

SMH $30.64 -2.79% ... new session lows.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 1:13:48 PM

SPY $126.87 -0.76% ... trying to hold WEEKLY Pivot

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 1:14:15 PM

TRINNQ at extreme levels now. This is a good place for a reversal trade, just use a tight stop.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 1:13:26 PM

SPX NH/NL 12:9

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 1:12:38 PM

Here is a side by side TICKNQ and NQ. You can see price is leading lower, but not the TICKNQ. That is usually supportive and a divergence I look for. Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 1:12:24 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 1:02:58 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 1:01:19 PM

And by the way, I consistently use the great work Jane did on the VIX and ADVDEC lines/volume over the past few years. There is nothing that beats that type of analysis. I think we have all learned a lot from her work and I love the fact that she is always exploring ideas. That is the sign of a trader that will survive and preserve capital.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 12:56:43 PM

I'm glad Jane brought up CCI. This is a very good technical article on it. I think RSI is a better tool for identifying divergences, but CCI has great scalping merits. Here is the article, the reader who suggested using 14, 6 as overlap is spot on, but just be aware of the limitations. Link On the subject of tick fades, which I think Jane is perfecting admirably, I would like traders to start charting it side by side with price and look for divergences, use 1 or 3 mn. I think that is one of the best scalping tools out there, especially at the open, which is my bread and butter day trade.
Summer is a great time to perfect your range trading techniques, as funds are usually not around to shore up at surprise moments, so work it. I love daytrading the summer, but for longer term trades, it is an ulcer giving experience.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 12:54:16 PM

SPY 60-minute interval chart with updated WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link ... Can envision this morning's support coming from QQQQ (see 12:36:52). QQQQ has been weaker index and SPY/SPX could become the "sledge hammer" than drives the "nail" (QQQQ) further lower.

Keene Little : 8/1/2006 12:40:55 PM

It's a small ascending wedge so play the break down through 1272.50 (watch the head fake). But if it rallies out of this bearish pattern it will likely rally fairly strongly. The top of this pattern is near 1275 so watch for resistance to try shorting it there. But watch the uptrend line from July 18th now near 1270. Link

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 12:39:32 PM

This is a bullish chart but a little overdone. I would watch MACD and if it crosses here you have a bearish divergence and I would wait for a better spot to go long. Link

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 12:37:18 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Marathon Oil Corp., in a theme recurring among oil companies, reported a sharply higher second-quarter profit Tuesday as rising oil prices and better profit margins on its refining operations more than doubled year-ago results. Houston-based Marathon (MRO) ( $92.59, +1.95, +2.2%) said net income rose to $1.75 billion, or $4.80 a share, from $673 million, or $1.92 a share, earned in the year-ago second quarter.

Excluding special items such as gains from discontinued operations and losses on long-term U.K. natural-gas contracts, the company earned $1.52 billion, or $4.16 a share, in the latest quarter, compared with $755 million, or $2.16 a share, a year ago.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 12:36:52 PM

QQQQ 60-minute interval chart with updated WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 12:18:05 PM

Yesterday I received an email from a reader telling me to watch the CCI with the setting -200, +200, 14, 6 and if CCI is > 200 when the TICKS hit +1000 you have a much better chance of a declne. When the TICKS hit +1000 this time CCI was +254. So from now on I will report the CCI when the TICKs reach > 1000

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 12:11:37 PM

TICKS +1000 YM 11144

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 12:11:07 PM

QQQQ volume at 39%, so I am not sure all this bearsihness has legs.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 12:10:20 PM

The way things are shaping up, it's a toss up as to whether we get more sharp selling at the close or actually have NQ bounce back up above 1500. I am watching gold and SMH, more than anything.

Tab Gilles : 8/1/2006 12:15:47 PM

Valero (VLO) Reported second-quarter net income rose to $1.9 billion, or $2.98 per share, from $843 million, or $1.53 per share, a year earlier. Link

Daily... Link Link

5 minute chart... Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 12:06:55 PM

Has more to do with the recent bid in oil, but nevertheless, be careful.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 12:06:14 PM

Gold finally wakes up. Not good.

Keene Little : 8/1/2006 11:59:05 AM

We've got a sideways/up bounce with 3-wave corrective moves this morning so I'm looking for lower once this completes.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 11:46:12 AM

QQQQ $36.50 -1.61% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 11:45:52 AM

Expeditors Intl. (EXPD) $40.12 -11.80% ... loses morning lows.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 11:42:48 AM

VZ FIOS 15mb speed is $45. That is 3 times faster than the best cable and they even have a coaxial ready on the router for when they roll out the 180 channels, with perfect movie download. Anyone that has suffered through the jagged download picture of cable will know what I am talking about.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 11:40:29 AM

I like VZ as a stock longer term. My experience (not many of us yet) with FIOS is a stunner. It will kill the cable companies when it rolls out nationally.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 11:39:20 AM


DJ- Hotel operator posts net income of $144 million, or 35c a share, which includes 3c of gains. Revenue nearly doubles to $2.2 billion on acquisition. Analysts expected EPS of 34c on revenue of $2.2 billion.

HLT $23.65 -1.17% Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 11:39:02 AM

The COMP support at 2058 is key and if we hold that through lunch, the worst is over. 30 or 40% probability of a rate hike a week before is still better than the 90 to 100% we have seen for 2 years this close to a meeting. I would be thinking long on dips.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 11:37:22 AM


DJ- Film giant shares fall over 10% after it posts 2Q net loss of $282 million, or 98c a share, as net sales fall 8.8% to $3.36 billion. Analysts expected profit of 22c on revenue of $3.45 billion. CEO Antonio Perez says "there are many positives" in 2Q results, despite weaker than expected sales and wider than expected net loss.

EK $19.99 -10.15% Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 11:35:52 AM


DJ- Telecommunications giant reports net income of $1.61 billion, or 55c a share, which includes 9c in restructuring and merger costs and a year-earlier gain. Analysts expected EPS of 62c. Revenue climbs 26% to $22.68 billion amid MCI acquisition. Verizon backs earnings outlook.

VZ $33.09 -2.12 Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 11:35:40 AM

I guess some senators are not worried about pensions. Lucky them.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 11:33:03 AM

MACD moving up while price moves sideways is bearish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 11:32:40 AM

Treasuries have calmed down ... relatively unchanged now.

Benchmark 10-year bond's YIELD currently up a fractional 0.4 bp at 4.992%.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 11:31:04 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist on Tuesday insisted that the chamber will pass legislation designed to shore up the nation's defined-benefit pension system this week without any alterations, despite anger within his own Republican Party and opposition from top Democrats.

"Pensions will get done without amendment," the Tennessee Republican said on the Senate floor.

The House late last week passed a bill that would require most companies to fully fund their pension plans within seven years, and would require firms with severely underfunded plans to take additional steps to make up shortfalls.

House action came after Frist and House Republican leaders decided to abort long-running House-Senate negotiations designed to iron out differences between versions of the bill passed by each chamber. Final bills produced by such negotiating committees can't be amended and face up-or-down votes on the House and Senate floors.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 11:34:12 AM

YM hit my low target just above 11125, which is 38.2%. That should hold today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 11:30:59 AM

Intel (INTC) $17.69 -1.72% ... below its WEEKLY Pivot ($17.83). WEEKLY S1 $17.47.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 11:29:16 AM

SMH $30.78 -2.34% ... has been able to hold WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 11:22:03 AM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert on the QQQQ to $36.30.

This could get very weak and looking for some protection. MINIMUM downside risk to WEEKLY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 11:17:58 AM


Yesterday's tally 11:4

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 11:15:53 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 11:09:31 AM

I would not be long here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 11:02:24 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 11:00:28 AM

Bullish divergence on the NQ 5mn new low. We didn't see weekly R1 and we might not see weekly S1. I would rather widen the stop a little and wait it out. We made +65 last week, we can afford a 6 point stop.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 10:59:02 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1486, lower stop again to 1479.
Cancel alternate signal for now.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 10:57:58 AM

NQ and YM to new daily lows.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 10:57:22 AM

ER now confirms its bear flag.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 10:56:55 AM

Internals suggest new daily lows.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 10:55:14 AM

The bear flags have confirmed on the ES, YM and NQ charts. YM makes a double bottom.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 10:54:32 AM

I really thought I was going to get weekly r1 at 1543, or at least 23.6% at 1534 before this would happen. Left +46 on the table. Not very happy about that. Now I have no choice but to play weekly s1.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 10:52:00 AM

August gold. See that 50% line at 643? Looks tired and weak. Gold is the smartest vehicle out there, bar none, when it comes to inflation: Link

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 10:49:55 AM

The equity markets have just made bear flags and the internals suggest they will confirm them.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 10:48:31 AM

Tempted to close and wait, especially right before lucnch. No first hour reversal, either means non-stop selling into the close, or a strong last hour reversal after lunch chop.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 10:45:43 AM

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Diversified manufacturer Emerson Electric Co. on Tuesday reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings, driven by strong industrial demand and recent acquisitions, and raised its full-year earnings forecast.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 10:49:13 AM

Paulson is calling for a strong dollar, but gold is not really caring much. Is anyone believing him? : Link

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 10:43:45 AM


Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 10:42:43 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
NQ long 1486, raise stop back to even.
If stopped out, SIGNAL is long at 1480, stop 1475.

Keene Little : 8/1/2006 10:37:48 AM

So far we've got a little 3-wave bounce in progress. If ES drops back below 1271 now it will very likely head for at least for 1267.50.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 10:37:44 AM

NYMEX trading will be halted at the NYMEX from 11:00 to 11:30 for practice fire drill.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 10:37:35 AM

Watch gold.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 10:37:17 AM

S3 days are rare and they usually give nice counter-trend bounces. Could see it anytime.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 10:36:26 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Spending on U.S. construction projects rose 0.3% in June, but outlays on private residential construction fell for the third month in a row, the Commerce Department said Tuesday.

Total construction rose 0.3% in June to an annual rate of $1.22 trillion, according to the government data.

The data beat expectations. Economists had anticipated an increase of 0.1% in June, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch.

June outlays for private construction projects rose 0.1% to $944.7 billion.

Private residential construction fell 1.0% in June, according to the Commerce Department. It's the third consecutive monthly decline in private residential outlays.

Spending on public-sector projects rose 0.8% to an all-time high of $272.5 billion.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 10:35:33 AM

They want weekly s1.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 10:33:07 AM

If SMH gets back above 30.95, we saw the lows.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 10:32:17 AM

Gold is going nowhere and TNX hovering around 50. This is a bogus "inflation" fear sell-off. But what can we do but watch in amazement at what the boyz of summer can do.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 10:31:47 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Major U.S. employers announced the fewest number of job cuts in six years during July, according to a monthly tally compiled by outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas.

Announcements of job reductions fell by 50% to 37,178 for the month from 75,076 in June. The latest month's total is down 64% from the 102,971 job cuts announced last July. It's the lowest since 17,241 in June 2000.

The figures, released Tuesday, are not seasonally adjusted

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 10:30:07 AM

If I wasn't long already (a little lower) I would be working it.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 10:28:50 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The second consecutive increase in pending home sales in June is a good sign because it signals the housing market is in the process of stabilizing, said David Lereah, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.

The real estate trade group said its index of pending home sales rose 0.4% in June, and is down 9.6% in the past 12 months.

The pending sales index tracks signed contracts for sales of existing homes, and typical leads trends in existing home sales by two months, the group said. Existing-home sales are recorded at the closing of the sale.

"The housing market is striving for balance -- a process that will take several months," Lereah said.

The pending sales index rose 2.5% in the South, and 1.9% in the Midwest. The index was flat in the West and dropped 6.3% in the Northeast. In the past year, pending sales have held up best in the South, down 4.8%. Pending sales are down 14.2% in the West, 11.9% in the Midwest and 11.6% in the Northeast.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 10:28:49 AM

COMP is finding key support at 23.6% 2000/2002, 2058.16. Gotta go out to the monthlys when you are this extreme. I don't think we will lose this level before the jobs report. Link

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 10:27:11 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Newly minted shares of Realogy and Wyndham Worldwide fell in their market debuts Tuesday as Cendant Corp. moved its restructuring plan forward by spinning off the two units.

Realogy (H) fell 4 cents to $25.25. Wyndham (WYN) declined 15 cents to $33.30. Cendant shares (CD) (2.24, +0.24, +12.1%) rose 31 cents to $2.30 a share.

Wyndham CEO Stephen Holmes rang the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange to kick off trading of his company's stock.

The trading debut came after Cendant shareholders received one share of Realogy for every four shares they owned and one share of Wyndham for every five Cendant shares owned.

Wyndham Worldwide is replacing Cendant, while Realogy replaces Gateway (GTW) in the S&P 500. Following the spinoffs and the completion of the $4.3 billion Travelport sale to the Blackstone Group, Cendant will change its name to Avis Budget Group to reflect its remaining car-rental business after a shareholder meeting on Aug. 29. Avis Budget is to trade under the symbol "CAR."

Soleil Securities on Monday issued a price target of $20 a share and put a buy rating on shares of Cendant while rating Realogy hold and Wyndham buy.

Realogy President Richard Smith said in an interview with MarketWatch that Cendant had been encouraged by earlier spinoffs from Jackson Hewitt, PHH Corp. and Wright Express.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 10:23:50 AM

In fact, SMH is finding suport at the old downtrend R (for now): Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 10:22:10 AM

Here comes the bounce.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 10:22:37 AM

Put your 10 dma on QQQQ and then on SMH. See the difference? That is what you have to look for when trading techs.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 10:21:03 AM

TRIN and TRINNQ are bearih, but not to the point where one would normally see this type of selling. SMH and semis are much better relative to 10 day moving averages than anyone else (still above).

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 10:20:48 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - A key gauge of strength of the U.S. factory sector picked up unexpectedly in July, the Institute for Supply Management reported Tuesday.

The ISM index rose to 54.7% in July compared with 53.8% in June. The index is still below the year-to-date average of 55.4%.

The price index jumped to 78.5% from 76.5% in June. This is the highest level since a record 84 last October.

The rise was unexpected. The consensus forecast of estimates collected by MarketWatch called for the index to inch lower to 53.6%.

The trade group surveys the purchasing managers at factories around the country. A reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. The index has been above 50 since May 2003.

There was a sawtooth pattern in July. New orders fell, but production increased at a faster pace, picking up the index.

New orders fell to 56.1% from 57.9% in June, while production jumped to 57.6% from 55.1% . The employment index rose to 50.7% from 48.7%. Backlog of orders fell to 50.5% in July from 54.0% in June.

Inventories rose to 50.5% in July from 46.9% in the previous month.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 10:19:42 AM


Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 10:19:03 AM

I want to stay away from this noise for now. Weekly S1 is 1479.50.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 10:18:41 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1486, lower stop to 1479.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 10:18:18 AM

Ugly, and notice how easy it is for them to drive it down. There are not enough traders around to create bounces.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 10:16:53 AM

Here is a chart of Nat Gas. I have left the overnight range so you can see how much this market has fallen. Trading this market is not for the faint of heart. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 10:16:38 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 10:16:36 AM

The brave can start a countertrend trade here. Shorts should cover if you are daytrading.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 10:14:18 AM

So far it sure looks like it.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 10:14:01 AM

There is no doubt as to who has the reins but the question is can the bears keep them.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 10:13:19 AM

TRIn has hit a daily high of 1.40 well above its PDH.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 10:13:37 AM

NQ and ES should find support here. We should get the first hour reversal soon. I think YM has more downside, though. 11124 would be my bet.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 10:12:16 AM

I see a bottom forming but it may just be a pause before making new daily lows. AD volume continues to fall but the AD line as leveled off albeit at -1564. VIX and TRIN have also leveled off and are not making new daily highs.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 10:10:05 AM

This is what hedge funds can do to the markets in low volume summer days. I am watching gold and the 643 level, Any bounce that cannot get above 643 is suspect and since I use gold as the best inflation gauge, right now it is not convincing.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 10:08:18 AM

Bearish swing trade lower stop alert on Expeditors Intl. (EXPD) to $42.80.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 10:07:41 AM

NQ chart. Watch that blue line: Link

Keene Little : 8/1/2006 10:06:38 AM

Weekly pivot at 1271.25 could hold this up but at this point it certainly looks like its got that uptrend line in its sights.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 10:06:28 AM

TRINNQ and volume does not suggest we will lose it, but traders are eyeing the weekly S1 at 1479.

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 10:05:47 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 10:05:45 AM

NQ hits 10 day moving average support.

Keene Little : 8/1/2006 10:04:31 AM

If ES 1272 doesn't hold (breaking as I type) then the next support level is the uptrend line from July 18th at 1267.50 which also happens to be the new monthly pivot.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 10:04:10 AM

ES gets a small bounce off 10 day ema. Sma's are lower.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 10:03:06 AM

YM has support at 11124/11125.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 10:01:47 AM

TICKS -800

Jeff Bailey : 8/1/2006 10:01:27 AM

Expeditors Int. (EXPD) alert $40.99 -10% ... Earnings release Link

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 10:00:58 AM

AD volume is plunging along with the markets.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 9:59:45 AM

TNX back below 5%.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 9:59:28 AM

We will see what the volume is by 11:30, but so far it seems it will be pretty light. Summer trading.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 9:57:14 AM

This is an overreaction, but we have to deal with it. I still think the Feds will pause, because the recession risks far outweigh inflation. The Verizon numbers have nothing to do with the consumer spending it is because they lost to cable (although they will get them back with FIOS by next year). All in all, no real reason to panic.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 9:55:37 AM

Interest-rate futures suggest there is a 36 percent chance the Fed will raise rates to 5.50 percent from 5.25 percent when policy makers on Aug. 8. The odds were 31 percent yesterday. They were as high at 75 percent a month ago. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 9:51:19 AM

It's about the inflation numbers and the Feds, once again. Link This market will be a roller coaster until the 9th but remember that what will count the most is the jobs data on Friday.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 9:48:34 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Whole Foods Markets Inc. (WFMI) said third-quarter net income surged nearly 34%, but overall sales missed Wall Street estimates, sending shares down on Tuesday. Shares of Whole Foods slipped 11% to $51.18 in morning trading.

Late Monday, the Austin, Texas-based natural foods grocer said net income rose to $53.9 million, or 37 cents a share, from $40.4 million, or 29 cents a share. The results include about $1.4 million in non-cash share-based compensation expense and about $3.7 million in pre-tax credits for insurance proceeds and other adjustments related to Hurricane Katrina. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 9:58:10 AM

10 dma is at 1494 and will hold up as long as we don;t get too far from the weekly pivot at 1500 which is current support.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 9:46:27 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1486, lower stop to even.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/1/2006 9:45:57 AM

The bear is back. I will move the stop below the 10 day ema for now.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 9:43:11 AM

Both VIX and TRIN to new daily highs as the AD line and volume make new daily lows. Internals are quite bearish.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 9:40:22 AM

All markets are now making new daily lows.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 9:37:52 AM

So far this is a get short and stay short kind of day.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 9:37:24 AM

All equity markets open below their PDLs. ER did trade above its PDL but has now retraced back below.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 9:35:32 AM

Then just like yesterday morning the VIX opens above its PDH but the TRIN below its PDL.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 9:34:37 AM

AD line is bearish -985 and of course AD volume is below the 0 line.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 9:29:11 AM

Dateline MarketWAtch Natural-gas futures extended a prior-session gain of 14% as traders saw little let-up in demand for the commodity as temperatures continued to soar across the country, generating increasing demand for electricity.

Natural gas is used to generate around 18% of the nation's electricity production, according to statistics supplied by the Energy Information Administration.

Looking ahead to Thursday's weekly supply data, the Energy Department is likely to report an increase in natural-gas inventories of 20 billion to 30 billion cubic feet for the week ended July 28, according to UBS analyst William Featherston. In the previous week, government data showed supplies declined for the first time since the end of March sending gas futures soaring.

Featherston says the increase is below the 37 billion cubic feet increase logged at the same time last year, and "well below" the five-year average of a 61 billion cubic feet injection. The Energy Department reports the weekly data on Thursday

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 9:22:16 AM

At 10 a.m. the market will receive the Institute of Supply Management's manufacturing report for last month. The MarketWatch forecast, based on a poll of economists, is for a reading of 53.6%, down a touch from 53.8% in June.

Construction spending data for June also will come out at 10 a.m. MarketWatch expects a gain of 0.1%, contrasting with a decline of 0.4% in May.

Investors will not find much comfort in Tuesday's news from the Middle East, as prospects for a speedy cease-fire remain dim. Israel has decided to send troops deeper into Lebanon to contain Hezbollah until a multinational force can be deployed.

A speech by Paulson at Columbia University at 10 a.m. will be closely monitored. The market is eager to figure out his stances on dollar policy and the Chinese yuan.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 9:18:20 AM

All markets except ER have now broken their previous day lows.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 9:17:26 AM

Here is an update of the overnight session. I left the overnight lows where they were so you can see how far the markets have dropped since my last charts showing the overnight session. Link

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 9:15:14 AM

NQ found resistance right where I suspected it would the June 14th lows. If you are bearish this is the market to short. Link

Keene Little : 8/1/2006 9:15:06 AM

After the 8:30 reports we're going to get the negative open. I thought we were due for at least a small drop from yesterday afternoon's slow drift higher and two equal legs down in yesterday's pullback is at 1277.25. If it breaks down then the first support level would be gap close from July 28th at 1272. Weekly pivot is 1271.25.

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 9:12:38 AM

There is not much to say about ER other than it is not as strong as ES yet not as weak as NQ. This chart is bearish because price is below all the major MAs and if price declines much more the MACD will make a bearish cross below the 0 line. Link

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 9:04:07 AM

ES has already broken its red downward trendline so it cannot be considered support but the 50EMA should provide that support. This market is of course not as strong as YM and I would not use it for long positions yet. Link

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 9:00:47 AM

If you feel bullish and want to get into a YM long I think a pullback to the red downward trendline would be a very good spot to "buy the dip." When/if it gets there the gold 50EMA may provide some support as well. Link

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 8:56:52 AM

Since MACD does not tell me if a market is overbot or oversold, I need to use other indicators for this. That is when I turn to the RSI and recently a reader suggested I use the CCI for my TICK fades so I thought it may work just as well on a daily chart. As you can see Natural Gas is overbot according to RSI and CCI so I will patiently wait for it to come back to at least its red dotted 100EMA before considering a long position. Hopefully its does not continue upwards without a retracement like Gold did earlier this year. Link

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 8:47:37 AM

Natural Gas is going parabolic and is not relenting to let those who missed this move a chance to get in (me). It is too overbot for me now and needs quite a retracement before I will consider a long.

Tbonds liked the 8:30 data about as much as the equity markets did and has very nicely broken its PDL.

Oil broke its PDH but seems to be stalling.

Gold traded within its PDR during the overnight session but is now testing its overnight low. Link

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 8:41:15 AM

The markets did not like that the 8:30 personal consumption price index rose 0.20% in June.

YM broke its PDL and ES has just about broken its PDL. Link

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 8:37:11 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. core consumer inflation matched an 11-year high in June, keeping the pressure on the Federal Reserve to fight inflation, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday.

The core personal consumption expenditure price index (excluding food and energy) increased 0.2% for the third straight month in June, and has risen 2.4% in the past 12 months, matching the largest year-over-year gain since April 1995.

Consumer prices including food and energy also rose 0.2% in June, and are up 3.5% in the past year.

Meanwhile, personal incomes rose 0.6% in June, outpacing the 0.4% increase in consumer spending. The personal savings rate rose to negative 1.5% from negative 1.6%, the 15th consecutive month of negative savings. Consumers can have negative savings by spending previous savings, or by borrowing or selling assets to support their consumption.

The gains in monthly incomes, spending and inflation were exactly as expected by Wall Street economists surveyed by MarketWatch.

After adjusting for inflation, real consumer spending rose 0.2%, the fourth straight month of tepid spending. After inflation, real take-home pay rose 0.4%, the biggest increase in disposable income since December

Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 8:34:00 AM


Jane Fox : 8/1/2006 8:32:20 AM


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