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Jeff Bailey : 8/5/2006 12:30:42 AM

Clever .... Note from my broker/dealer ... MST has announced an offer to buy back 808,080,808 shares of their outstanding common stock through a Dutch auction.

A Dutch auction is an auction format in which the seller offers something for sale at progressively lower prices until a certain point is reached. The price to be paid my Microsoft will be between $22.50 and $24.75 per share. In accordance with a Dutch auction, MSFT will pay the minimum price necessary to acquire all 808,080,808 shares.

The auction ends on August 17, 2006 unless extended by MSFT.

(I would have chosen an 08/08 deadline)

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 11:18:02 PM

OEX Top 33 5DyNet% Decliners at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 11:11:39 PM

OEX Top 33 5DyNet% Gainers at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 10:49:31 PM

S&P 100 (OEX) Top 33 market cap weighted stocks at this Link ... XOM, PG and T doing the bulk of the bull's work this past week.

CSCO, INTC, ORCL and UPS were downside culprits.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 10:28:22 PM

Weekly/Monthly Pivot Matrix Link

Russell 2000 Index added

OI Technical Staff : 8/4/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 9:54:06 PM

Last 3 WEEKLY Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 7:45:08 PM

Recent NASDAQ-100 stocks to get a reversing higher PnF buy signal ...

ADBE @$32 Link (below trend, caution advised)

CDWC @$60 Link

CMCSA @$35 Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 7:55:20 PM

Week Recap
NQ +5 ($100 per)
NVDA Jan 17.5 calls +3.90 (+110%)(trade was incorrectly listed as +3.4 yesterday, it is actually 3.9, entry 3.5, exit 7.4)

I did not have time to put in more trades for the monitor this week, but the bullsih bias was the way to go as we still stay in the uptrend channel, which is getting a little wedgy, so mind your step.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 7:33:36 PM

NQ 20 dma held up as well as 50% at 1498.50 and we close above 1510 which keeps the bulls in business. Add ES above 1285 and the day was not as bad as bears would have hoped. Even INTC found a bid above 17.39.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 7:33:24 PM

Nice build in PnF buy signals for Dorsey/Wright's S&P 500 Bullish % (BPSPX) with a net gain of 2.02%, or 10 stocks to reversing higher PnF buy signals. Needs 54% to reverse up to "bear correction" status and a 56% measure would be "bull confirmed."

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 7:33:03 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 7:32:57 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

4-days into the month and NYSE average daily volume is up 9% from July's 2.39 billion/day average.

NASDAQ volume down 6% from July's 1.93 billion share/day average.

Today's 85 NL at the NASDAQ are fewest since 07/31/06 (71:86). Today's 85:85 is first time NH/NL has been even or positive since 07/06/06 67:56.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 7:32:48 PM

Crazy ... with an hour left in trade, I almost said ... "it won't surprise me to see NASDAQ NH/NL get squared up."

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 6:23:03 PM

I see BIDU $74.74 +1.68% made it back near the $75 strike today.

On July 26, just prior to the close I mentioned a "spec put" play and the Aug $75 puts (BDQ-TO) for $1.90. Next day thought traders should close them out for $5.00 ($75 - $5= $70) and post-low has been $67.92.

Seeing some very good out the money put plays hit, but then start to go "poof."

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 4:14:34 PM

SPX looks 1,279.36 official cash close.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 4:13:58 PM

I think it would only be fitting if the SPY goes out at $128.25.

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 4:10:45 PM

Economic reports slatad for Monday August 7th include:

3p.m. June Consumer Credit. Previous: +$4.4 Bln.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 4:09:46 PM

WRONG .... (04:03:39)

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 4:09:16 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPY $128.14 : YM 11,273

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 4:03:39 PM

I think the ability of YM to have traded 11,218 has a settle back to DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 4:01:24 PM

"no man's land" between 11,300 and 11,250

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 4:00:28 PM

Selling long YM 11,267 here

Keene Little : 8/4/2006 3:57:24 PM

It looks like ES is going to close on the uptrend line from July 18th just to leave everyone guessing whether it will break on Monday or not. My guess is that it will hold but I'm not terribly confident about that. If it breaks below 1279 on Monday then we could see a bounce back up to the broken uptrend line as we head into Tuesday which would set up the drop from there (at least that's the way I'm currently leaning--we'll see a sell off post FOMC).

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 3:54:07 PM

YM has been the only market to retrace 38.20% of its daily range. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 3:53:43 PM

S&P 500 Index (SPX) Link ... BIG trade today at 1,290

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 3:52:58 PM

Dow Industrials (INDU) Link ... BIG trade today at 11,300.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 3:46:58 PM

Precious Metals Bullish % (BPPREC) at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 3:43:15 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Ford Motor Co. and Jaguar, a rocky 17-year marriage that has delivered more red ink than transatlantic magic, might be headed for a split if recent signals from Ford are any indication.

The notion that Ford has reached its tipping point is certainly nothing new, but scuttlebutt of an imminent sale heightened this week after the company hired a mergers and acquisition guru to explore "a broad range of strategic alternatives."

Adding to the perceived urgency, Ford revised its second-quarter results to show a wider loss, saying the company's luxury division will lose money in 2006. Previously, Ford predicted the business, which is dominated by Volvo and also includes Land Rover and the low-volume Aston Martin, would achieve a slim pre-tax profit this year.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 3:38:58 PM

HUI.X 337.93 -0.69% ... dual "head shoulder" patterns at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 3:35:28 PM

NYSE ($NYA.X) 8,263 ... edges back green

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 3:31:08 PM

I'd sure like to see 333 for the $HUI.X

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 3:29:33 PM

BEnchmark YM at 11249 when the CCI crosses back below +200.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 3:29:57 PM

$72.50 would've been "nifty" for SUN

SUN $74.34 +0.62% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 3:28:36 PM

$60 would be "nice" for ICE $59.39 +1.36% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 3:27:54 PM

YM 11,253

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 3:27:54 PM

3 min CCI on the YM chart is +209

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 3:27:41 PM

YM ... either 11,250 , or 11,300 settle.

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 3:27:36 PM

And another TICK +1000. Looks like the rescue team is out in full force.

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 3:26:27 PM

TICKS +1000 but the 3 min CCI is only +133 so I will just watch it.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 3:20:09 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 3:14:56 PM

This selloff has orderly and slow indicating no panic and is therefore all the more bearish.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 3:03:27 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 2:59:43 PM

DAteline CNN Israeli police confirm two or three rockets hit the Hadera area -- furthest point yet south of the Lebanese border. Initial reports indicate no casualties.

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 2:58:37 PM

If NQ breaks its PDL it also will confirm the bear flag on the daily chart.

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 2:57:44 PM

NQ only has 7 more points to go.

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 2:57:05 PM

The only question in my mind now is will PDLs hold today?

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 2:54:31 PM

August Nat. Gas (ng06u) looks to settle unchanged for the week.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 2:42:51 PM


DJ- Tire maker posts net income of $2 million, or 1c a share, which includes 36c in restructuring charges. Analysts expected earnings of 18c. Sales increase 3% to $5.14 billion.

GT $11.92 +7.67% Link

Tab Gilles : 8/4/2006 2:41:20 PM

Eaton Vance Limited Duration Fund (EVV) It's been several months since I've commented on EVV. Back in November I noted that the candle formation appeared to be making a bottom (Post 11/28/05 11:29AM). Then on 1/11/06 (posted12:33PM) I commented that it was heading for $17.75.

Currently trading at $17.95, intraday high $18. It appears to want to head higher. If you're in the EVV, use a trailing stop, either 21-ma or 50-ma. Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 2:40:34 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 387.18 +0.64% ... came close to trading an all-time high this morning.

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 2:40:13 PM

This is proving to be a bear flag and a break of the bottom trendline will confirm it. Link

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 2:37:01 PM

TICKS up to +800. I see that the TICK hit +1000 at 2:06 but I missed it though I think a fade would have done OK.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 2:29:20 PM

Ford Motor (F) $7.07 +3.06% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 2:25:46 PM

Same old thing ... NQ/NDX/QQQQ pace the weakness. Keep thinking that the "beta" trade will take hold, but too much "jitters" for new longs into CSCO and FOMC.

Keene Little : 8/4/2006 2:23:03 PM

As can be seen in this ES 30-min chart the 100 (black) and 130 (green) moving averages have been supporting the pullbacks for the past week. If ES drops a little further today those averages at 1277-1279 could act as support again again. Today's low at 1279.50 could be it for the dip and is another reason I wanted to try a small long position. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 2:23:50 PM

YM 5-minute interval chart at this Link

Taken before my profiled stop, but area I would be looking for a bounce.

Actually got "stuck" with a short this morning, with no chart/feed, and gladly covered at 11,286.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 2:20:01 PM

No more trades today. The chop has taken over.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 2:19:20 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 2:19:13 PM

YM stop alert 1,235

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 2:15:35 PM

YM 11,247 ... need the buyers above 1,243

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 2:10:04 PM

This is the real danger to the world, forget tribal wars. Penned by the former head of planning for Shell oil. Wake up America. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 2:04:34 PM

Stepping away for a sec. We should get back above 1510 soon. 1514.75 is R follwed by 1520.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 2:02:25 PM

YM long entry alert 11,255 here, stop 11,235, target 11,290

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 2:02:16 PM


Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 2:02:03 PM

But SMH goes green, so we stay in.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 2:01:19 PM


Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 2:00:39 PM

Now AMD just caught up. Fun stock to daytrade, I might look into it.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 1:59:50 PM

Gasoline futures down 1.95% at 2.31.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 1:58:06 PM

3 pm turn.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 1:58:24 PM

I have AMD up .39% and INTC up .75% Jane. The drop from highs for AMD was pretty swift.

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 1:53:29 PM

AD line made a high of +2148 and has just recently made a low of -98. Not sure if I have ever since such a move.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 1:52:31 PM

SMH $31.44 +0.22% ...

Keene Little : 8/4/2006 1:51:53 PM

ES came down and hit its uptrend line at 1280.50. I exited at 1281 and just got long a small position on this bounce back up through 1281. Stop is at a new daily low. Small risk to see if it bounces into the close today. Finishing flat on the day may be all we can hope for.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 1:51:35 PM

AMD starting to get "squared up" look.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 1:50:09 PM

AMD $20.59 +0.73%

INTC $17.44 +0.69% ...

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 1:50:30 PM

Here are the four futures markets we watch with a fib retracement bracketed from each PDL to PDH.

From this perspective YM is the strongest because it has only retraced 50% of its PDR. ES and ER are neck in neck because both have made it to the 61.80% but not much past it. Then NQ the weakest. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 1:48:35 PM

INTC is holding 76.4% (17.39). With 50K puts at 17.50, I'm not sure it is wise to go with the crowd (sellers). The stock is doing better than most today and that is bullish. AMD was a much better short yesterday (see my little bit on margins I posted).

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 1:44:47 PM

+5 partial

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 1:44:37 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -
Long 1502, raise stop to even.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 1:44:23 PM

I knew they would hold it above 1498.50, I just was not sure how much they would front-run it.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 1:43:54 PM

By the way, IB 's ticks are 2 seconds faster than any other service out there, so use them, not your charting software. For COMP symbol is TICK-NASD and use index. Regular tick is TICK-NYSE

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 1:42:36 PM

Et voila.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 1:41:57 PM

divergence right there. Let's see this hold now.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 1:41:31 PM

Watch those ticks.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 1:41:12 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -
Long 1502, raise stop to 1497.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 1:40:32 PM

I am not going to get cute here. 1498.50 should hold, the stop is wide, but I will tighten it.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 1:42:00 PM

Maybe one of the most "I knew this was coming" volume observations Link

As in ... SOMEBODY had great confidence and convictions.

I like to say "THE MARKET" knew.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 1:39:58 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1502, stop 1495.50.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 1:38:24 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 1:38:16 PM

VIx is in sync with ES today and has been extremely helpful in trading today. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 1:37:51 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1503.50, stop 1496.50.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 1:36:37 PM

1498.50 is 50% of current rally off July lows. 1500 is 20 dma. Lots of support coming up.

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 1:35:30 PM

From the bear's perspective that long tail on today's candle is ominous but from a bull's perspective the red downward trendline is still intact. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 1:35:23 PM

They are going for one more low.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 1:35:06 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 1:34:57 PM

As weird as this may sound ... A GLD bear does NOT want to see a trade at $63.20 today Link ... $63.21 would be nice, then the gap lower on Monday.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 1:29:39 PM

+ 2 partial.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 1:29:54 PM

I was a little early, should have waited for the flush, but these days, who knows.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 1:27:53 PM

Bullish divergence on the new low.

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 1:27:20 PM

I bailed on my QQQQ puts this morning. Dang it!(sorry) However I still have my INTC puts.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 1:27:16 PM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $64.08 -0.06% ... slips red.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 1:26:49 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -
Raise stop to 1501.50

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 1:26:13 PM

Gold is making a bullish move sideways. I think it will test the swing high at 690.30 before the end of summer. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 1:25:35 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -
Lower stop to 1498.50.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 1:25:35 PM

Baker Hughes (BHI) $77.13 -2.52% Link ... lows of the week.

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 1:23:17 PM

NQ's PDL is 1492.50
ES's PDL is 1274.75
YM's PDL is 11160
ER's PDL is 691.70
We will find support here.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 1:23:08 PM

20 dma is 1500.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 1:22:48 PM

NAsdaq new 52 highs still higher than lows.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 1:22:29 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1505.50, stop 1499.50.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 1:22:54 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Thursday's Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 1:21:37 PM

There is a long trade between 1500 and 1504.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 1:20:28 PM

NQ loses 1522 support and it is downhill from there. Now we are in the "economy is too slow" phe, after the "economy is slowing so feds will stop" rally. In any case, it is not unhealthy to see such negativity ahead of the Feds, sowould be accumulating long posions as we go forward. Confluence 10 amd 20 dma is supportive here at 1500/1504.

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 1:18:31 PM

Dateline CNN "These are the two monsters we've been hunting," said Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon, after police announced the arrest of two suspects in the city's "Serial Shooter" case.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 1:18:10 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Keene Little : 8/4/2006 1:16:06 PM

Hmm, more selling pressure than I thought we'd see. SPX now negative (techs and small caps long ago in the red) and DOW about to go red, and just did as I'm typing. Still I think I'll cover my short at ES 1281 and possibly try a small scalp long but will be pretty much done for the day there.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 1:15:00 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPX 1,279

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 1:14:35 PM

CRB Index loses yesterday's lows.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 1:02:43 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 1:01:13 PM

IB and TS still do not have quotes however,

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 1:00:54 PM

ECBOT is now trading but they have purged all DAY orders submitted before 10:30.

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 12:59:21 PM

This has been quite a reversal and should really worry the bulls because it just goes to show that they are not really all that strong. Link

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 12:56:42 PM

VIX to new daily highs so ES's daily lows are going to be history.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 12:48:28 PM

... And every HIGH!

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 12:47:35 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 12:46:55 PM

ECBOT will reopen at 1300 EST.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 12:46:05 PM

At this point Jane ... EVERY LOW (day, pdl, pwl, pml, pyl) is in play in my opinion.

Until FOMC gives confirmation of what its plan is on Tuesday.

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 12:39:52 PM

My goodness me thinks PDLS could be tested today. Whoa!!

Keene Little : 8/4/2006 12:38:55 PM

I'm not expecting it but if ES drops right down to its uptrend line just below 1281 that's where I'd cover my short position and think about playing the long side again.

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 12:38:09 PM

"The employment report seals the deal on a pause in the Fed's interest rate hikes and a continuation of the trend would spell the end of hikes for the current cycle," said Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 12:38:01 PM

I did think, and it may still happen, that RYL runs/ran to $49 before a 3-box reversal, which would be base of "bullish resistance channel" (take a 45-degree angle from $47 and go up to your right on PnF chart)

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 12:37:41 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices rallied Friday, pushing the benchmark yield to its lowest level in four months, after a much-awaited employment report came in weaker than forecast, boosting hopes the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates next week.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 12:35:23 PM

Ryland (RYL) ... we'll be back for a long, hopefully near $40. We've got a "low pole warning/reversal" well below bearish vertical count. Mortgage rates look to be turning even more favorable than they've been.

PnF-ers would like to see ONLY a 4-box reversal (from $44, that would be $40), look long there, stop about $1.50 (just in case 5-box, or 50% of the move off the bottom). Once long at $40-ish, look for the rip back higher, get a "buy signal" and begin assessing longer-term reward.

Here's you PnF chart Link

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 12:35:20 PM


Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 12:24:49 PM

SMH $31.50 +0.44% .... $31.51 is my "waterline"

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 12:23:44 PM

McMillan's weekly commentary - The stock market continued to rise this week, without a lot of help from technical indicators. But we always say that price action is the best technical indicator, so it must be respected. $SPX managed to close above resistance at 1280. There is still some resistance, at the 1290 May top. If it should exceed that, the chart formation would be a rather bullish one, and we would then look for higher prices. However, since the entire 1280-1290 range must be considered a resistance area, we are not looking to get long at this time.

Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals. It is unusual to see them continue to rise as the market itself is rising. When this happens (both the put-call ratio and the underlying price rising in conjunction), it usually means that the put-call ratio signal is unreliable that there is considerable hedging activity which is distorting the put- call data. In this case, however, we are talking about ALL stock options that trade, so there would have to be a LOT of hedging activity to distort the ratio. Perhaps there is, because put volume has been heavy for several weeks even though the market has generally been rising.

Market breadth (advances minus declines) is positive. Actually, it follows the daily moves with extreme daily readings of its own, because of rather uniform institutional activity.

Finally, volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) have remained rather subdued for the most part. Their continued downtrend over the last few weeks means that they remain on buy signals.

So, in summary, we see buy signals from $VIX and breadth, but the put-call ratios are negative (although there may be hedging distortion there). Finally, $SPX itself is modestly bullish, and a close above 1290 would be a much more bullish sign.

Potential news items may be complicating things: 1) the unemployment report on Friday is sure to appear bullish to some traders and bearish to others (it's the classic case of 'bad news is good news' if job growth is sluggish), and 2) many traders are become more and more certain that the Fed will not raise rates at next week's FOMC meeting. If they are right, this might be a classic case of 'buy the rumor, sell the news.' That is, the market might actually decline right after that meeting if a 'pause' is announced. Of course, if rates are raised, that would be even more negative. Consequently, even if $SPX breaks out over 1290, some amount of caution should be used.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 12:22:01 PM

Swing trade bullish stop alert ... for Ryland Group (RYL) $42.40 -1.36% ...

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 12:21:54 PM

If you have a position in YM make sure you hedge it with one in ES to counterbalance it. You never know how long these problems and last and if you are long YM you could really get hurt.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 12:20:21 PM

SMH $31.56 +0.63% ... session low has been, been, been ... $31.52

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 12:19:59 PM

ECBOT is halted due to technical problems at the exchange.

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 12:19:24 PM

All markets have closed their respective gaps and are falling except YM. YM isn't even moving and me thinks we have a problem with ECBOT

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 12:19:09 PM

TRIN gave some hint of this action this morning (see 10:21:20)

Keene Little : 8/4/2006 12:18:25 PM

If you're looking for a scalp long, you might think about trying one from ES 1286 with a stop no lower than 1284.

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 12:17:47 PM

AD line as fallen to +716. Interesting!!

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 12:17:12 PM

HMMM TICKS just hit -800. Interesting!

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 12:15:58 PM

SUN's WEEKLY R2 is right here at $75.04. I want a TIGHT STOP as profiled, just in case the $75 calls unravel to upside.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 12:14:28 PM

ICE Option Montage at this Link ... this is NOT the primary reason I like and ICE long, but something I've been seeing in some stocks that have made nice moves above near-term CALL open interest.

Keene Little : 8/4/2006 12:11:04 PM

ES gap almost got closed (tick shy). Two equal legs down from this morning's high is at 1286. Take a little off the table at gap close and a little more at 1286. We might not get much more than that for the rest of the day. Right now it's holding at an uptrend line from yesterday morning's low.

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 12:13:25 PM

Wouldn't it be a bear coup if PDLs were reached today. Sorry my bearishness is showing through isn't it?

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 12:07:37 PM

Sunoco (SUN) option montage at this Link ... Earlier this week I traded long SUN in personal account on move above $70.00 (based on VLO action) with thought move above $70 could have "naked call" run to $75.00 strike. We're here.


Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 11:57:33 AM

Sunoco position size alert .... only 1/2 positions at this point. I did not specify position size and "default" would be full. Only 1/2 please.

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 11:55:29 AM

ES's break to a new daily low is confirmed by the VIX to a new daily high. However, ES is hitting its PDH and should find support there.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 11:54:13 AM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert ... on Ryland Group (RLY) $42.97 -0.06% ... to $42.40.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 11:52:20 AM

Ryland Group (RYL) $42.86 -0.32% ... slips red.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 11:43:11 AM

Swing trade short alert ... For Sunoco (SUN) $74.87 +1.34% here, stop $75.50, target $71.00.

Sold long SUN yesterday in personal account.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 11:41:43 AM

Valero (VLO) (alert) $66.46 -1.50% ... Per James Cramer's "Mad Money" and comments that the stock turned higher from these conference call lows.

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 11:40:00 AM

Here is a chart of the Natural Gas emini. You can see how the MotherRock Hedge fund got into trouble. But heh wait a minute a hedge fund is supposed to have "hedges" against this kind of move. HMMMM?? Link

Keene Little : 8/4/2006 11:39:59 AM

After the initial drop from this morning's opening gap up and run higher we're consolidating sideways. We should get another leg down and that's when I expect the gaps to get filled. We'll then probably get another choppy sideways/up consolidation that chews up the greater portion of the day before another leg down into Monday which should set up a bounce into Tuesday. At least that's my best guess at the moment as to what kind of price action we can expect into Tuesday--a market essentially on hold.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 11:39:21 AM


DJ- Oil producer posts net income of $857 million, or $1.97 a share, which includes $347 million loss from discontinued operations. EPS from continuing operations of $2.77 is 2c shy of analysts' mean estimate. Revenue jumps 36% to $4.6 billion.

OXY $106.04 -0.84% Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 11:37:53 AM


DJ- Work force unexpectedly declines for second-straight month, sending Canada's unemployment rate up to 6.4% from 6.1% in June. Canadian economy loses 5,500 jobs. Economists forecasted a 25,000-job gain and flat unemployment rate.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 11:37:11 AM


DJ- The Economic Cycle Research Institute says that its Future Inflation Gauge increases to 124.0 in July from an upward-revised 123.3 in June. The index is still below October's level, which was the highest level in five and a half years.

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 11:36:34 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - MotherRock LP, an energy hedge fund run by the former president of the New York Mercantile Exchange, is shutting down after suffering big losses in natural gas markets in recent months, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday.

MotherRock lost $230 million in June and July because of volatility in natural gas markets and investor redemptions, the newspaper said, citing a person familiar with the situation.

J. Robert Collins, who started MotherRock in early 2005 with former Pioneer Futures trader Conrad Goerl and ex-Nymex vice president John D-Agostino, apologized to investors for losing their money and said a plan for winding down the fund was being drawn up, the WSJ said, citing a letter to investors that was reviewed by Dow Jones Newswires.

Natural gas prices have been particularly volatile lately. They rallied 17% in the week of July 24 and then surged 14% on Monday, fueled by the recent heat wave that's swept across the U.S., the newspaper reported.

Traders said the jump was caused by funds covering short positions and speculation that a big market player was being forced to buy as prices rose, the WSJ said.

At its peak, MotherRock managed about $430 million in assets, making it one of the largest hedge funds trading natural gas futures, the paper noted.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 11:34:05 AM


DJ- Shares of Apple Computer fall 4.8% after the company discloses its investigation into stock-option expensing could result in the company restating financial results.

AAPL $66.17 -4.91% Link

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 11:20:37 AM

Oh BTW jtHMA has also turned red on the NQ monthly chart.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 11:18:21 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 11:16:33 AM

I am very bearish on NQ because its breakdown has filtered through to the monthly charts. The red and blue trendline show you a bear wedge that has confirmed. Then the red and magenta trendlines show you an upward channel that has broken to the downside. Then MACD has now crossed the 0 line and the last time it was below 0 was November 2003. Hard to get bullish on the market with this kind of breakdown. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 11:14:50 AM

VIX's DAILY S1 14.04

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 11:14:13 AM

VIX 14.00 ... SPX 1,286.00

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 11:11:09 AM

Even though the AD line is falling it is still well above +1000 and the AD volume continues to climb so don't even think short. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 11:02:25 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 10:58:29 AM

Lehman Bros. (LEH) $68.18 +3.03% ... Biiiig bond house. Gaps above its 200-day SMA ($67.18)

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 10:54:58 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 10:52:12 AM

NQ has broken its red trendline as well but this market is still well below all its major MAs and remains bearish. Notice the MACD and how it has not yet broken 0. I just cannot shake this bearishness and the more I read the more certain I become that we are just seeing a propped up market. Nevertheless it is irrelevant what I think or how much money is been pumped into the market the charts are getting more and more bullish and that is what we need to trade. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 10:50:33 AM

SMH $31.79 +1.37% Link ... has been able to breach the $31.51 level intra-day this past week, only to be pushed back under by the close. A little more strength this morning to its 50-day SMA ($32.12). Slowly it tries to turn.

Keene Little : 8/4/2006 10:48:18 AM

This is the reason I want to be short today--ES did another picture perfect tag of the two uptrend lines and there's lots of air below it. I'll take these setups every time. Stops can be kept relatively tight and if stopped out then you know there's something very bullish going on. The majority of the times these setups will make you money. This is one of my bread and butter trades. since the risk:reward ratio is very good. Link

I'll take some money off the table though at 1288 if we get there. My stop is at 1298 and if stopped out then I'll know there's some false propping going on and I'll be done for the day. Orders are in and I can walk away.

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 10:47:43 AM

ER has also moved above its ref trendline but still not above its major MAs so in my mind it is getting more bullish but not quite there yet. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 10:46:41 AM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $17.51 -0.28% ... still not participating. Earnings next Tuesday (FOMC day). Consensus $0.28/share

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 10:43:37 AM

Ditto for YM. Link

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 10:42:51 AM

ES is no longer neutral with the break of the red trendline and now trading above the major MAs. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 10:38:06 AM

If stopped, give it another go above 1522, but if we lose 1522, or don't get back above quickly, stay out.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 10:38:01 AM

ICE $59.48 +1.51% ... still pinned under August $60/$65 Call Open Interest.

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 10:37:54 AM

CALGARY, Aug. 3, 2006 (Canada NewsWire via COMTEX) -- Imperial Oil today announced net income for the second quarter of $837 million or $0.85 a share, compared with $539 million or $0.52 a share for the same quarter of 2005. Net income for the first six months of 2006 was $1,428 million or $1.44 a share, versus $932 million or $0.89 a share for the first half of 2005.

Earnings in the second quarter were higher than the same period of 2005 due mainly to higher natural resources realizations and stronger refining margins. Earnings were also positively impacted by lower tax expenses primarily from the impact of a one-time future income tax adjustment based on lower federal and Alberta tax rates and lower stock-related compensation expenses. These factors were partially offset by higher planned refinery maintenance and capital project activities impacting both refinery throughput and expenses and the stronger Canadian dollar.

I entered a bullish position in IMO this morning. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 10:36:52 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert -
Long 1525.50, stop 1525.50, sell to close at 1549.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 10:36:43 AM

Chicago Merc (CME) $481.50 +5.12% ... big gap up this morning.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 10:36:08 AM

I have to go so I will set an exit.

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 10:35:56 AM

Even with all this bullishness look at INTC so I hold on to my puts. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 10:31:59 AM

50% gap close was it it seems. QQQQ back above key 37.37.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 10:31:33 AM

And we win the toss.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 10:28:54 AM

Since we can never be sure, the stop is moved up to even very quickly, We get stopped, try again above 1522. We lose 1522, and bulls are in trouble. Pretty simple day.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 10:27:52 AM

There is a little battle going on in the gap. Those that think 50% will hold and those that think we will get a gap close at 1521.75. But the BOYZ see you coming and they will slam some shorts playing the gap close.

Keene Little : 8/4/2006 10:27:47 AM

ES gap close at 1287.50 is where I'd take some money off the table again and then add back to your short position on a bounce from there (assuming we'll get a bounce from there). But I'm thinking today is a day to stay short. If it manages to rally back up to a new daily high I'll just view that as a better opportunity to short it again.

We will probably see the market held up into FOMC next Tuesday so I'm not expecting anything other than a tradeable short here. I think we're due for a pullback before perhaps one last hurrah into FOMC. After FOMC I'm thinking you won't want to be long the market.

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 10:26:12 AM

NQ has broken its PDH and just about filled the cash market morning gap.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 10:24:47 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert -
Long 1525.50, raise stop to even.

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 10:23:50 AM

AS Marc mentioned the TRIN is certainly suggesting that the bulls may just lose possession of the ball however that has not happened yet.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 10:23:36 AM

+ 3.5 partial.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 10:22:30 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1525.50, stop 1521.50.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 10:21:24 AM

I might put in a signal here, before I go.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 10:21:20 AM

TRIN 1.54 ... certainly depicts some selling into this morning's strength.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 10:20:36 AM

COMP hit the 50 dma at the open and keep an eye on that as well (2116).

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 10:17:22 AM

NQ got near 50% of gap, a hair above 1525 and that could be all they give. Some rotation out of energy and into semis. ABSOLUTE must hold for bulls is NQ 1522.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 10:15:29 AM

I have to step away again today, watch those gaps. There could be a reversal today, we have seen it all, but internals look pretty solid, so I would keep the bullish bias, although we might get a scare early on. Nasdaq new 52 week highs double the lows.

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 10:13:17 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Energy firm Buckeye GP Holdings LP and stem cell specialist Osiris Therapeutics discounted their initial public offerings for their stock market debuts in the face of market-moving jobs data on Friday.

Investors lining up for the IPOs drove a hard bargain with Buckeye -- the latest energy IPO in a series -- as it priced at $17 a share, below its $19-$21 range. Still, the IPO raised $179 million by offering 10.5 million units, cut from the earlier size of 12.5 million.

The Radnor, Penn. energy partnership (BGH) owns Buckeye GP LLC, the general partner of Buckeye Partners, L.P. (BPL) (43.42, +0.40, +0.9%) , one of the largest independent petroleum products pipeline systems in the U.S.

Buckeye GP receives cash-generating assets, including the right to receive incentive distributions based upon the amount of quarterly payments to Buckeye Partners, L.P.

The IPO comes after the debut of Atlas Pipeline Holdings L.P. (AHD) (22.85, -0.15, -0.7%) on July 21 and Valero GP Holdings (VEH) ( 21.85, +0.02, +0.1%) on July 14.

Despite overall rockiness in the market, IPOs remain in limited demand -- but demand nonetheless -- especially from insurance and energy deals.

Osiris Therapeutics (OSIR) priced 3.5 million shares at $11, the low end of its $11-$13 price range, in a bid to raise $39 million in its IPO.

The Baltimore, Md. company currently markets and sells Osteocel for regenerating bone in orthopedic indications. It's the only commercially available product in the United States containing viable stem cells, Osiris said in its IPO prospectus.

It's also developing other drugs including Prochymal, the only stem cell therapeutic in Phase III clinical trials and the only stem cell therapeutic currently designated by the FDA as both an Orphan Drug and Fast Track product candidate.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 10:11:30 AM

AAPL is a drag on NQ today.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 10:11:02 AM

These gaps might get closed so put them on your charts, but if the bulls mean business, they should hold up at 50% or so.

Keene Little : 8/4/2006 10:10:19 AM

We got the retest of the high and now a pullback. If short I'd now place my stop just above that last bounce.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 10:09:16 AM

QQQQ has support right here at 37.37. Resistance is 37.71.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 10:07:21 AM

Funds are back in the game on the jobs news. That was what they were waiting for. If the Feds do not pause, we will jave a stock market crash and Bernanke knows it. In any case, bullish bias was the way to go and techs was the sector to load up on. The same skeptics that fueled the November rally will fuel this one.

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 10:05:10 AM

* Silver futures up 50c at $12.590/ounce on nymex
* Crude opens down 11 cents at $75.35 a barrel
* Gasoline opens down 0.84 cents at $2.285 a gallon
* Heating oil opens down 0.43 cents at $2.109 a gallon
* Natural gas opens up 2.8 cents at $7.32 per million btus
* Copper futures up 15.05c at $3.6400/pound on nymex

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 10:04:11 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 10:03:42 AM

I think by early 2007, the Feds will be back down to 4.75%, where they should be.

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 10:02:10 AM

I am getting a lot of +1000 TICKS reading this morning. TICK right now are +1235

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 9:59:54 AM

If the markets try to fill the morning gap (cash market gap that is) I suspect PDHs will be support.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/4/2006 9:58:59 AM

AAPL is slowing down NQ a little, but we look headed for 1549, 50 dma. QQQQ almost hit it this morning. ES broke out above 1289 since 1285 support held, the writing was on the wall. Semis and tech are leading the charge )and bulls have the ammo it takes now. QQQQ is headed straight for that gap at 38.64.

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 9:58:00 AM

ES to new daily lows but the VIX is not making a new daily high.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 9:56:56 AM

Refinance your mortgage (alert)!

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 9:56:52 AM

YM made a new daily low and ES is testing its daily lows here. This may just be a gift from the bulls and a great place to try a long ES scalp. Your stop is very obvious and close.

Jeff Bailey : 8/4/2006 9:56:28 AM

Huuuuuuge move in Treasuries and buying is ferocious.

10-year YIELD down 5.4 bp at 4.897%.

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 9:53:19 AM

BEars are now trying to gain some field advantage but they certainly don't have the ball yet.

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 9:49:20 AM

I wouldn't try shorting this. Link

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 9:46:21 AM

Egads AD line +2149!

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 9:39:48 AM

TICKS +1000 but I will not be fading today. Internals are way too strong.

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 9:37:21 AM

Here is how the futures opened. Link

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 9:36:21 AM

VIX open below its PDL as does the TRIN. All is well with the bulls as they take the ball and start running.

Keene Little : 8/4/2006 9:33:59 AM

Futures have pulled back from the pre-market high but we could still see a test, if not a throw-over, of that high. If you shorted it you might want to take some off the table on a quick pullback and then add back a position on a retest. I agree with Jane that we could have a one-and-done kind of day today.

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 9:33:25 AM

AD line is very bullish +1127 and of course AD volume is well above 0.

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 9:00:09 AM

Here is an updated chart of the overnight futures. I have left the orginal overnight highs marked so you can see how much more the futures have climbed since my last post.

Please remember this is a summer Friday and this move could very well be the only movement we have today. Link

Keene Little : 8/4/2006 8:56:19 AM

For those who get (and read) the Market Wraps, I need to make a correction to last night's Wrap. I stated the FOMC was Wednesday the 9th but in fact it's Tuesday the 8th. Sorry for that error.

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 8:49:25 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures fell Friday as fears of potential damage to Gulf of Mexico energy installations abated after Tropical Storm Chris was downgraded to a depression, but nervousness about conflict in the Middle East heading into the weekend could make for choppy trading.

Crude for September delivery was last down 44 cents at $75.02 a barrel in electronic trading. Gasoline futures fell 1.04 cents to $2.283 a gallon, while heating oil futures dropped 1.54 cents to $2.098 a gallon.

"The storm fears are abating," said Rakesh Shankar, economist at Moody's Economy.com. "The market has been fixated about Chris coming into [the Gulf of Mexico], so that premium is slowly unwinding."

Tropical Storm Chris weakened to a depression overnight, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center.

The unpredictability of tropical storms means investors will continue to pay close attention to any weather updates and watch for any change in strength as it moves westward across the Caribbean toward to the Gulf.

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 8:46:59 AM

Dateline WSJ - WASHINGTON -- U.S. payrolls posted their fourth-straight tepid gain last month and the jobless rate spiked higher, giving Federal Reserve officials greater flexibility to pause their two-year tightening campaign at next week's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.

Nonfarm payrolls grew 113,000 last month after climbing 124,000 in June and 100,000 in May, the Labor Department said Friday. Previous estimates showed a 121,000-job increase in June and a 92,000 gain in May.

The unemployment rate climbed last month to 4.8% -- matching the highest level since December 2005 -- from 4.6% in June. That 0.2-point rise is the fastest since October 2001, according to the Labor Department.

Average hourly earnings rose $0.07, or 0.4%, to $16.76. Compared with a year earlier, July hourly earnings were up 3.8%.

The payrolls data were below Wall Street expectations. The median estimate of 22 economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC had projected a 150,000 payroll increase and a 4.6% unemployment rate.

Wage growth slightly topped expectations, as economists had expected a 0.3% monthly gain in average hourly earnings.

The Labor Department report suggests that the U.S. economy entered the third quarter on a decidedly soft tone. After expanding at a red-hot rate of 5.6% in the first quarter, the economy expanded just 2.5% in the second quarter. Economists generally peg the economy's noninflationary growth rate at 3% to 3.5%

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 8:45:41 AM

The only market that did not react to the 8:30 data was Natural Gas, which hugged its PDL during the overnight session.

Gold broke its PDH with an overnight high of 666.30

OIl fell along with the other marekts but I certainly cannot fathom why Oil would fall on employment data then when you look closer this market made an overnight low at 8:20 not 8:30. Overnight low was 75.70

TBonds took a nice jump so yields fall fueling the equities run. Link

Keene Little : 8/4/2006 8:45:40 AM

First short attempt for me is right here, ES 1296 and YM 11370.

Keene Little : 8/4/2006 8:44:01 AM

The shorts are running for cover as the Boyz jam it higher. Very easy to do pre-market like this.

Keene Little : 8/4/2006 8:42:18 AM

This opening gap, if this jump up in the futures holds, will get the DOW up to its 11300 resistance level. We might see a gap n crap day today so be careful chasing it higher.

Keene Little : 8/4/2006 8:39:11 AM

Depending on which trend line gives YM trouble, it could find resistance at 11370 or 11390. Link

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 8:38:30 AM

Needless to say the markets liked the employment data out at 8:30. "Unemployment rate highest since Feb"!. Obviously the market is much more worried about interest rates rising than the economy slowing. Link

Keene Little : 8/4/2006 8:36:19 AM

Quite the bullish response to the 8:30 reports. This should get ES up to the top of its ascending wedge which is just below 1296. It could certainly continue higher than that but that's where I'd look to try a short for a pullback. Link

Jane Fox : 8/4/2006 8:32:28 AM


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