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Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 2:47:25 AM

A refresher on WIMAX, and why AMD ain't no Intel: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 2:43:42 AM

Big victory for INTC:
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Sprint Nextel Corp. will use WiMax technology to build a new wireless Internet network, according to a media report. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 1:37:28 AM

Aug. 8 (Bloomberg) -- In 2003, the U.S. sought to punish France for opposing an invasion of Iraq. Now the Bush administration has welcomed French involvement in resolving the conflict in Lebanon, and France may take the lead in an international peacekeeping force. The two countries agreed three days ago on a draft United Nations resolution calling for a "full cessation of hostilities" between Israel and Hezbollah. They are now working together to modify the draft to meet Arab objections. A second resolution, still being worked on, will lay out the conditions under which a multinational force will be deployed. "The French to some extent bailed us out," said Charles Kupchan, a professor of international relations at Georgetown University in Washington and fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. "The French come along with a plan and the U.S., uncharacteristically, was happy to say `we're with you, Paris."' It's taken nearly four weeks since the conflict started July 12 to reach the stage at which the international community is close to agreement on a plan to resolve the crisis. The French willingness to work together with the U.S. this time round stems partly from the country's past involvement with Lebanon and President Jacques Chirac's personal links with the country. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 11:06:25 PM

Lenovo will offer AMD microprocessors in its line of ThinkCenter desktop PCs, the computer maker's second global brand to offer AMD processors. For many people, however, the only brand that matters is ThinkPad, the vaunted line of notebooks that China-based Lenovo picked up from IBM in 2004 as part of its $1.25 billion acquisition of the PC business. For now, ThinkPad remains an Intel only institution. And while AMD's announcement illustrates how much progress the company has made getting its chips into mainstream systems, it also underscores how much work lies ahead for AMD in its battle with Intel. "ThinkPad is the crown jewel there," said Samir Bhavnani, director of research at Current Analysis. Bhavnani said that AMD still needed to make some progress in its brand-acceptance among large corporations, which is where the ThinkPad notebooks are primarily aimed. "The very largest companies still insist on Intel," Bhavnani said.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 10:57:41 PM

GOOG rally coming our way. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 10:56:40 PM

HOUSTON (MarketWatch) -- Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSB.LN) said Monday that its West Coast refineries do not anticipate a crude shortage in the near term as a result of BP PLC's (BP) decision to shut its Prudhoe Bay oil field in Alaska. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 11:02:04 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Today's Activity

Swing trade stopped on the 1/2 bearish position in shares of Sunoco (SUN) at $75.50 ($-0.63/share, or -0.84%)

Swing traded long a full position in the Occidental Petroleum OXY Sept. $105 Calls (OXY-IA) at the offer of $5.50. Stop would go at $98.00 in the underlying, targeting $118.00.

Keene Little : 8/7/2006 10:20:42 PM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 8/7/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 6:52:51 PM

December Gold (gc06z) $659.50 (unch) ... (30-min. delayed)

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 6:51:46 PM

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) alert 84.89 (30-min. delayed) ... gets a trade at WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 4:49:02 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 4:42:19 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 8/7/2006 4:16:25 PM

ES is still within the sideways coil pattern I showed earlier (right at the top now at the 16:15 close). This coiling will probably continue tomorrow as it gets tighter and tigher.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 4:12:03 PM

Trade Recap
Day: NQ -2 (-$40 per)
Open: NQ long 1497, stop 1497 (+5.5 unrealized)

I might play around with that trade overnight. Tomorrow's S1 will be around 1492, but if the 20 dma holds, you should stay long (now at 1499).

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 4:09:35 PM

Economic Reports and Events for tomorrow include:

8:30a.m. Second-Quarter Preliminary Non-Farm Labor Productivity. Previous: +3.7%.

8:30a.m. Second-Quarter Preliminary Unit Labor Costs. Previous: +1.6%.

9a.m. Federal Open Market Committee meeting begins.

2:15p.m. FOMC interest rate decision expected. Previous: 5.25%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 4:07:24 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPY $127.84

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 4:03:09 PM


Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 4:01:27 PM

This is a HOT technology: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 4:05:38 PM

These diesel requirements should have been phased in over the past 4 years by the government . Now states are taking anti-pollution matter in their own hands and it is a harsh wake-up calls for the trucking industry which has spent billions lobbying Washington to keep thier emissions at prehistoric levels, while our cars are much cleaner. In the end, you always have to pay the piper. Truckers would have been better served putting that money into phasing in the cleaner fuels. Who in their right mind wants our kids to keep breathing these toxins. Buy local produce, by the way. It helps fight pollution.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 3:49:29 PM

Diesel Shortage Has Truck Drivers Fuming

Denver Post Link

Most likely today's BIGGEST catalyst for SUN $77.75 +4.88%

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 3:49:22 PM

Bears have not been able to break key support for COMP and SMH the past two days of selling.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 3:45:36 PM

1498.50 is support now.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 3:45:09 PM

I had my bounce to 1502, but that might be it.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 3:40:04 PM


Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 3:39:54 PM

WASHINGTON - The Energy Department is prepared to provide oil from the government's emergency supplies if a refinery requests it because of the disruption of supplies from Alaska, a department spokesman said Monday. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 3:38:05 PM

Trade is +5 now, so if you want to book it and be flat, now is the time. I will hold over, stop at even.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 3:38:12 PM

September Crude Oil futures (cl06u) settle higher by $2.22, or +2.97% at $76.98.

Today's trade at $77.00 has initial bullish vertical count building to $82.00.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 3:32:34 PM

That's ok, I am a patient man.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 3:32:25 PM

SPX still double digit earnings growth, with P/E around 15, rates about to pause and maybe get lower. And bull/bear ratio the same as 2002 recession. You have got to be kidding.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 3:26:05 PM

Meanwhile, SMH is stronger than NQ and COMP relative to 20 dma.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 3:24:55 PM

Beras, bears, bears, everywhere, in the press, and in the newsletters. It is a very crowded field.

Keene Little : 8/7/2006 3:23:55 PM

I like to keep track of potential parallel channels and just to keep bears on their toes as this progresses, here's a potential up-channel for ES. Price could still take a swing up to the broken uptrend line and get back up to the 1288 level tomorrow where it found resistance before (other than the Friday morning gap up). From there it could head down to the bottom of the potential up-channel shown here. I show a bullish wave count here as just an idea of what could happen. I don't believe we'll get a bullish resolution here but I've been surprised by this market too many times that tells me not to totally discount the possibility. Link

What this all means of course is that it will continue to chop around and basically go nowhere since it could find support at the bottom of the channel above 1270. That would give us about +/- 10 ES points from here which is OK for a quick trade but would very likely knock both sides out of their trades. So don't go betting the farm on a big move tomorrow since it might not happen. As shown in the chart we could get a head fake to the downside and then a continuation of the rally. Stranger things have happened.

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 3:22:53 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumers took on a much bigger-than-expected $10.3 billion in new debt in June, the Federal Reserve said Monday, almost double what they did in May.

Consumer credit outstanding grew by $10.3 billion in June to $2.186 trillion, the Fed said.

That followed a $5.88 billion increase in May, which was previously estimated as a $4.4 billion gain.

Overall consumer credit grew in June at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.7%. In May, that number grew at an annual rate of 3.25% from a previously estimated 2.45%.

Revolving credit like credit card debt increased at a 9.8% annual rate in June. Revolving credit grew at a revised 11% annual rate in May, up from the previously estimated 10%.

Nonrevolving credit, like auto loans, rose at a 3.2% annual rate in June after falling at a 1.4% annual rate the previous month. In May, nonrevolving credit fell by 1.35%, the Fed said. It was previously estimated to decline by 2%.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 3:22:37 PM

wasted 2 NQ points worrying about that lame low volume drop. COMP back above 20 dma.

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 3:21:17 PM

GNC Corp. plans to offer 23.5 million shares at a range of $16 to $18 in a bid to raise about $400 million, with underwriter Merrill Lynch. The IPO is expected to price Thursday night and trade on Friday.

The company is going public on the New York Stock Exchange after reporting an 84% increase in second-quarter net income to $13 million from $7.1 million in the year-ago period.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 3:20:30 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -
Long 1497, stop at even.

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 3:20:28 PM

Evercore Partners plans to offer 3.95 million shares at $18 to $20 a share as the boutique investment bank chaired by Roger Altman sets plans to raise about $75 million. The IPO is expected to price Thursday night for its trading debut on Friday.

The deal is moving ahead despite last week's move by another bank, Ryan Beck, to shelve its IPO plans. Evercore plans to trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol "EVR." Lehman Brothers is the lead underwriter.

Evercore estimated its second-quarter operating income would increase to between $21 million and $25 million from $2 million in the year-ago period, according to the company's amended IPO prospectus. Revenue is estimated at $41 million to $43 million, up from $14 million in the year-ago period.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 3:20:16 PM

+3 partial.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 3:19:23 PM

Looooow volume.

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 3:19:07 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Profitable Aircastle Ltd. will taxi to the runway as early as Tuesday as the jet leasing firm leads a busy calendar of initial public offerings this week.

Infineon Technologies (IFX) (10.86, -0.06, -0.5%) plans to float $1 billion in stock from its Qimondo memory chip unit as the biggest in a series of IPOs readying their debuts, along with investment bank Evercore, retailer GNC and others.

Stamford, Conn.-based Aircastle plans to offer 9.1 million shares at a range of $21-$23 a share in a bid to raise about $200 million in its initial public offering with underwriters J.P. Morgan, Bear Stearns and Citigroup.

The company plans to trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "AYR".

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 3:15:57 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 3:14:01 PM


Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 3:12:43 PM

COMP 20 dma.

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 3:12:37 PM



Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 3:11:22 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1497, stop 1495.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 3:11:01 PM

SMH diverging above 20 dma.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 3:08:36 PM

It is so easy to do what you wnat here, with this volume. Opex needs QQQQ above 37 for next week.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 3:07:15 PM

Weekly s1? Nothing better than a good dose of pessimism before a major event, like CSCO and the Feds.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 3:06:00 PM

I am out, with the COMP belwo 2068.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 3:05:37 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 3:04:10 PM

The volume is anemic, to say the least. How can you trust anything with this kind of participation?

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 3:02:52 PM

But we might get one more scare. Stops should be very tight either way and use patience for entries.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 3:02:40 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 3:01:49 PM

Meanwhile, the shopper will come out for the back to school spree and in full force, regardless of oil prices. Again, why I think technology and possibly apparel will do well in August.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 2:59:14 PM

He went too far and he knows it. Should have stopped last time. We need to get it down to 4.75 by year end to avoid a recession.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 2:58:32 PM

It's why I think Bernanke will ease by October, Jane. 1998 redux.

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 2:55:18 PM

This is an excellent article to read. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 2:49:09 PM

COMP with 20 dma: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 2:45:53 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -
Long 1497, stop to 1495.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 2:45:09 PM

we should get a bounce to about 1502 soon.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 2:44:07 PM

Taking the divergence.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 2:43:47 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long 1497, stop 1494.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 2:43:12 PM

lower low with diver?

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 2:43:00 PM

1495 is s1

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 2:42:52 PM

Wait and see now.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 2:42:42 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert -

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 2:42:32 PM

there it goes.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 2:41:19 PM

But they sure need a buy program soon, or we lose it on low volume. QQQQ at only 40% average volume!

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 2:40:00 PM

Jane, I think what is holding the market up is the NASDAQ 20 day moving average at 2068. Many computers are tied to that index.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 2:40:21 PM

BP Will Replace 73% of Pipeline From Prudhoe Bay

BP $70.71 -2.52% Link ... darts to new session lows.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 2:39:18 PM

NQ 30 mn with bbands and fibs. We held so far: Link

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 2:37:13 PM

I think the only thing holding up the markets is their PDLs and once those are gone we will see a watershed.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 2:36:36 PM

too obvious.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 2:35:52 PM

watch COMP 2068.

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 2:35:19 PM

AD volume to new daily lows but the AD line is not adding to the confusion.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 2:34:34 PM

SMH 31

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 2:32:26 PM

Doesn't it feel like the bulls are hanging on by the hair on their chinny chin chin.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 2:31:19 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert -
Long NQ 1498, stop 1494.

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 2:30:50 PM

ES tests daily lows as VIX tests daily highs. HMMM

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 2:29:26 PM

That sell program woke a few of us up.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 2:28:29 PM

I will take 1496 or so

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 2:28:10 PM

I like ES 1272 if it comes this way. Next support would be 1267.75, 20 dma, which I think will hold this week.

Keene Little : 8/7/2006 2:27:17 PM


Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 2:26:39 PM

1495 is alos 30 mn bband support.

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 2:25:49 PM

Keene have you been working on your airplane lately? :)

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 2:25:06 PM

QQV drops

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 2:23:21 PM

QQV just dropped to 21.67. About mid-point for the day. Not the same picture as the VIX.

Keene Little : 8/7/2006 2:21:01 PM

As the market maintains altitude and airspeed in its holding pattern before getting clearance to descend I could see a sideways triangle pattern playing out like this into tomorrow afternoon. Then two equal legs down from Friday's high would give us a downside target near 1261 (depending on the height of the final bounce). Just an idea here as we wait for tomorrow. Link

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 2:19:38 PM

Aren;t you glad you have the VIX to tell if Es's daily highs are going to hold or not? Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 2:18:43 PM

Bullish swing trade call option alert for a full position (one (1) for the risk managed MM Profiles) in the Occidental Petroleum OXY Sep $105 Calls (OXY-IA) at the offer of $5.50 ($5.30 x $5.50)

OXY $107.17 +1.83%

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 2:18:37 PM

1498.50 is 50% curent rally, 1488 is 61.8% which is also weekly S1. If 1498.50 breaks, that is where I would start buying. One can try a scalp entry here, but it is looking weak. S1 is 1495, so they might hit that.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 2:17:05 PM

NASDAQ yearly lows cannot get back above 10 dma. Seller fatigue: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 2:15:04 PM

Here come the sellers.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 2:13:47 PM

CSCO has a put base building here. Could be a little suprise.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 2:12:43 PM

Marvel beats street view; lifts forecast Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 2:07:05 PM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) up 2.6 bp at 4.927% ... just shy of WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 2:05:49 PM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $64.28 (unch) ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 1:55:38 PM

Occidental Petroleum to Buy Plains Exploration Properties

bizjournals.com Story Link

OXY $107.18 +1.84% Link

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 1:48:54 PM

These two are bearish because they are below 0 but not making new daily lows telling me the marekt is bearish but with no direction. Link

Keene Little : 8/7/2006 1:45:33 PM

ES continues to press up against its broken uptrend line but not able to get above it. This market is clearly being held up and the fact that it's rising in a choppy (bear flag) pattern just under the uptrend line is making me more and more bearish. They could still stop run the shorts and kick them out but at this point any price spike higher deserves an immediate short entry as far as I'm concerned.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 1:41:23 PM

SMH chart, still confirms my bullish bias for techs going forward. But a drop below 30.38 ends that: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 1:39:13 PM

It's as if shorts are waiting for a rally to load up on, and longs want a better price. The impatient traders are the ones feeding the tape, which right now is going nowhere.

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 1:39:03 PM

ES tagged it daily highs but the VIX did not test its daily lows so I think those highs are safe for now.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 1:37:59 PM

Besides , the right shoulder is not formed yet.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 1:37:28 PM

Great comment Jane. Yes, charts can be interpreted many ways.

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 1:36:56 PM

Just goes to show how technical analysis can be swayed by your bias. Marc just showed the COMPQ chart with a bullish inverted H&S and I think we have a bearish flag. Here is that flag on a 240 minute chart. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 1:36:32 PM

COMP inverted H&S? Link

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 1:25:46 PM

* Tesoro: operations unaffected by BP shutdown
* BP restart of prudhoe bay oil field may take months
* Tesoro: only 10% of total crude supply from Prudhoe bay
* Tesoro: co has multiple foreign sources to meet requirements

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 1:23:13 PM


Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 1:19:23 PM

Dateline WSJ Word from BP that the giant oil company will need to take its Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, oil operations offline for repairs is roiling energy markets. But the shutdown could also echo in Washington, where lawmakers are struggling to find a way to bring gasoline prices to heel.

BP, which has been working hard to patch up its North American image amid a raft of environmental and safety headaches, warned last night it would shut down its Prudhoe Bay facility following the discovery of a small leak and a corroded pipeline. The halt will shut in an estimated 400,000 barrels of oil a day, nearly half the daily output from the oil fields on Alaska's North Slope. Though that's a relatively small amount of oil in the grand scheme of U.S. consumption -- the U.S. used about 20.7 million barrels a day last year -- it is nonetheless significant at a time when a very taut balance between supply and demand has led to an extraordinary degree of volatility in the world's energy markets. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said it had enough capacity to pick up the slack, and the U.S. Energy Department said it stands ready to provide oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve if necessary.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 1:11:02 PM

SPX NH/NL currently 10:10

Friday's tally was 28:6

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 1:10:27 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 1:07:21 PM

A peace deal in the middle-east would be quite a catalyst. Unlikely, but it seems Condy Rice is getting the upper hand in the politics of this administration. Word was that Cheney wanted Israel to invade Syria and that sparked such an outrage in the State department that he had to back down. If Rice resigns, it's over, so they are giving her more lattitude. Let's see if she can swing it.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 1:02:14 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 1:02:05 PM

The percentage of bears keeps rising and the percentage of buills keep dropping. At July 2002 levels. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 1:02:59 PM

Prudential lowered estimates on INTC, citing lower margins on the price war with AMD. If that is the case, the last stock to buy is AMD, since it is already at 3 times less margins than INTC. I think this is a very premature call, as there are signs the higher margin server market is liking the INTC line-up. Nevertheless, we have to deal with that today, otherwise the SOX would be better off.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 12:55:40 PM

Back. NQ and SMH holding on to 20 dma, which is pretty much your support for the markets at this point. Higher oil is a drag, but if everyone is so worried about a slowing economy, I would use rallies in oil to offload oil stocks. I still beaten down technology is where rotation will take place this month, so pick your stocks there and start cost averaging.

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 12:48:14 PM

I'm not sure you can even rely on charts today. Market movement today has been anything but easy to figure out with charts or with internals.

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 12:47:00 PM

CCI has now crossed back below +200 so you could probably short YM now but I would keep a tight rein on it because the market is getting stronger (AD line and volume).

Keene Little : 8/7/2006 12:44:49 PM

On that jab higher ES smacked its head on its broken uptrend line, now at 1283.50. Two equal legs up off this morning's low is at 1282.75 so not a bad spot to short it if you feel like playing in traffic today.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 12:43:45 PM

Intel (INTC) $17.29 -1.14% ... doesn't appear to be on "the list."

Keene Little : 8/7/2006 12:42:44 PM

Never short a dull market comes to mind when I see this kind of price action--easy to spike it higher and catch shorts sleeping, especially during the lunch period.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 12:42:36 PM

SPY $127.93 -0.21% ... just off best levels of session and $128.05.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 12:41:52 PM

Little buy program there

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 12:41:12 PM

TICKS +1000 3 min CCI is 300!

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 12:32:11 PM

SPY ... 60-minute interval chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 12:15:40 PM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 386.28 -0.32% ... slips to session low. Sets up for test of WEEKLY Pivot.

Only equity-based index in Pivot Matrix ABOVE its WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 12:13:04 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $24.22 -0.28% ... hugs WEEKLY Pivot ($24.21)

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 12:12:00 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $17.47 +1.33% ... session highs.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 12:11:14 PM

Intel (INTC) $17.28 -1.20% ... probes morning lows.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 12:10:47 PM

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) $20.54 +0.29% ... edges green.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 12:07:59 PM


DJ- Unionized workers at the world's largest privately held copper mine, located in Chile, go on strike at the start of the first shift this morning. Walkout stems over contract talks. Mine owners BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto trade mixed.

BHP $42.40 -0.53% Link

RTP $213.36 +0.93% Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 12:03:15 PM

Consumer Discretionary Spdrs (XLY) $32.33 -0.36% Link ...

Keene Little : 8/7/2006 12:02:17 PM

This is painfully slow price action and is probably what we can expect through most of tomorrow until the post-FOMC fireworks start.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 12:01:12 PM

Black & Decker (BDK) $69.01 -2.01% Link ... slips to new 52-week low.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 11:58:58 AM

August Fed Funds futures (ff06q) quiet this morning. At 94.71 the MARKET currently forecasting roughly 12% probability of 25 bp rate hike tomorrow.

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 11:51:20 AM

TNS (TNS) shares fall 25.7% to $12.75 on 1.6m volume following q2 report, lower outlook
* tops NYSE percentage decliners list Link

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 11:44:29 AM



Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 11:44:29 AM


DJ- Nickel miner deems last week's increased hostile bid from Tech Cominco not superior to Inco's agreed-to deal with Phelps Dodge. But Inco agrees to begin talks with Tech Cominco about a possible superior offer.

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 11:43:12 AM


Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 11:42:34 AM


DJ- Israeli prime minister meets with top defense officials to discuss whether to expand Israel's offensive in southern Lebanon. Lebanese Prime Minister Saniora says more than 40 are killed in an Israeli attack on the border village of Houla.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 11:38:46 AM


DJ- Berkshire Hathaway reports a 62% surge in 2Q net income to $2.35 billion, boosted by a jump in interest and investment income, robust growth in the reinsurance business and revenue contributions from new acquisitions.

BRK.A $92,300 +0.64% Link

BRK.B $3,067.00 +0.55% Link

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 11:30:58 AM

On a 240 minute chart ES has already broken its upward trendline. Today's close should tell us alot about where this market is headed. I think the bulls are in a no win situation because the FED pausing has already been factored into the price but if the FED does raise again ES will crater. Link

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 11:27:55 AM

ES's PDL is 1278 and today's low so far has been 1278.25.

YM's PDL is 11211 and today's low is 11216.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 11:22:37 AM

AES Soars as Q2 Net Nearly Doubles

DJ- Shares surge 13% as power company earns $169 million, or 25c a share, as revenue climbs 15% to $3.04 billion. Analysts forecast earnings of 17c a share. AES raises its 2006 earnings from operations forecast to $1.05 a share, from 96c.

AES $20.64 +13.09% Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 11:19:54 AM

El Paso E&P President Lisa Stewart Leaving Company

EP $14.82 -4.81% Link ...

AP Earnings Story Link

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 11:18:09 AM

The US $ is looking pretty sad which is only good for Gold Bugs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 11:17:18 AM

Martha Stewart Living (MSO) $16.94 +0.35% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 11:15:55 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 11:15:11 AM

Here is the rest of the story Martha Stewart agreed to pay $195,000 and accepted a ban on serving as a director of a public company to settle civil insider-trading charges related to her December 2001 sale of ImClone stock. The long-awaited settlement also imposes limits on her ability to serve as an executive of Martha Stewart Living.

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 11:13:56 AM

ER breaks its PDL. Link

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 11:05:20 AM

ES's new daily lows are confirmed by the VIX so, as Keene has stated, if you must trade stay on the short side. BTW AD line and volume to new daily lows.

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 11:03:19 AM

Martha Stewart agrees to pay $195,000 in insider-trading settlement with SEC. Former stockbroker Peter Bacanovic also settles.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 11:03:12 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 11:00:55 AM

Homebuilders continue to impress with 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) up 1.4 bp at 4.915%.

DJUSHB 645.17 +0.91% is "sector winner"

Keene Little : 8/7/2006 10:56:03 AM

We have a price pattern that says we should be selling off since the ascending wedges have confirmation of a break down. But we also have an "invisible hand" holding the market up. The longer it's held up into FOMC the more bearish I become. But for now I agree with Jane--staying out could be the best trade right now. If you feel you must be in a trade, the short side is the right side in my opinion.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 10:52:42 AM

Double Hull Tankers (DHT) $14.23 -4.81% Link ... Percentage loser among "Water Transportation Stocks"

Reuters Earnings Story Link

Note: "Key Competitors" TK, SEA, CKH

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 10:46:37 AM

Water Transportation Stocks ... QCharts' "hot list" sorted by Net% Gain at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 10:39:46 AM

Arlington Tankers (ATB) $22.36 +0.85% ... Company description Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 10:38:08 AM

Nordic American Tanker (NAT) $40.26 +0.90% ... Company description Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 10:36:12 AM

Teekay Shipping (TK) $44.38 +0.42% ... Company description Link

(Aslo see 10:31:29 and TGP)

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 10:32:59 AM

Knightsbridge Tankers (VLCCF) $29.50 +1.51% ... "oil tanker" ... Company description Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 10:31:14 AM

The trade is probably to get short on any initial rally, but to go long once the dust settles. I have to step away, if you want the long side, be patient, there will be a better entry.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 10:31:36 AM

Overseas Shipholding (OSG) $66.05 +1.77% ... "oil tanker" ... Company profile Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 10:31:29 AM

Teekay Lng Partners (TGP) $31.68 +2.16% ... some "oil tanker" exposure.

Company profile Link

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 10:25:07 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- A.G. Edwards Inc. was fined $900,000 by NYSE Regulation Inc. for charging excessive fees to customers in its non-managed accounts. The regulatory arm of NYSE Group Inc. said customers with non-managed accounts paid "substantially" more in fees than they would have had they not been enrolled. The excessive fees were charged between 2001 and 2004, the Big Board said.

The abuses occurred in A.G. Edwards' Client Choice program which offered trading services to investors without the use of a financial adviser. The NYSE said many of the accounts were charged fees even though there was no activity.

For instance, the NYSE found two linked accounts with no activity in a four-year period. Nevertheless, the linked accounts paid a total of $12,180 in Client Choice fees, the Big Board said.

In accepting the settlement the St. Louis-based brokerage neither admitted or denied guilt.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 10:22:51 AM

Watch the semis.

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 10:21:27 AM

It is unfortunate when the markets do not give us an environment that is conducive to daytrading and I feel our duty here in the monitor is to let you know when that happens. I also feel it is as important if not more, as posting trades. This is not an environment you what to try and trade. It may change later but right now it is best to be on sidelines.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 10:19:34 AM

Hansen Natural (HANS) $33.38 -17.14% Link ... Percentage loser at the NASDAQ and atop this morning's most actives after the beverage maker reports Q2 earnings with revenues slightly below expectations.

AP Earnings Story Link

Keene Little : 8/7/2006 10:13:52 AM

SPX opened below its uptrend line after testing it at the close on Friday so it looks like a failure on a retest. But the failure is not amounting to much yet. ES opened just below its uptrend line and is now trying to hold on at the line (1283). I'd say you want to be short here but keep your stop tight--not much above the overnight high (1285.75).

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 10:13:51 AM

ES peeks to a new daily high (by 1 tick) but the VIX is not confirming so I don't expect follow through.

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 10:11:26 AM

So far the markets have gone nowhere fast.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/7/2006 10:06:00 AM

Concensus is building that there will be no post-Fed rally. That may be a self-fulfilling prophecy or put everyone on the wrong side of the trade. It will be interesting to watch. Im any case, negativity is everywhere: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 10:04:17 AM

Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) $75.90 -13.64%

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 10:03:09 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 9:56:39 AM

TEL AVIV (MarketWatch) -- The conflict in Lebanon has directly cost Israel's northern factories $840 million so far, largely from lost production, the Manufacturers Association estimated on Monday.

After more than three weeks of fighting, about 88% of Israel's factories in Haifa and the north are operating fully or partly, up from 75% last week and 47% in the first week.

The trade group estimates that in Haifa and the northern areas, some 1,800 factories employ five or more workers. In total, some 100,000 people work in industrial jobs in those areas.

The $840 million estimate doesn't include indirect damage stemming from lost future orders or customers, the group said.

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 9:51:30 AM

Dateline Marketwatch - Marc Pado, U.S. market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald, in a research note, cited a dearth of catalysts to push stocks higher, given that a U.S. rate hike pause already is priced into the market, while crude prices and the Middle East situation remain worrisome.

"We've covered all of the reasons why the market might get a little pop in August, mainly the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, peace in the Middle East, and a drop below $70 in crude prices, but the clock is ticking," Pado said.

"Even if the Fed pauses, the market now has mostly discounted the move, or lack thereof. Tropical Storm Chris turned into a tropical depression instead of a hurricane. That helped knock crude temporarily, but BP shut down a 400,000 barrel per day pipeline in Alaska due to a leak, which will put crude right back up into the high-$70s," he said.

"That leaves peace in the Middle East to help lift the market in the next week or two," Pado said. "That is too uncertain an event to bank on, so we need to view strength as an opportunity to get out, move into cash, hedge, short, or be as defensive as possible.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 9:48:10 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 9:52:46 AM

ER tests its PDL and finds support. Link

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 9:45:10 AM

AD line has now fallen to -900 and of course AD volume is falling along with it.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 9:42:47 AM

Andrew Corp. (ANDW) $9.57 +21.29% Link ... percentage gainer at the NASDAQ and atop this morning's most actives after the company said CommScope (CTV) $30.16 Link (halted) has bid $1.7 billion for the communications equipment maker, challenging a merger between ANDW and ADC Telecommunications (ADCT) $13.20 +8.01% Link

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 9:38:26 AM

I have to give the open to the bears.

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 9:38:09 AM

VIX above its PDH.

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 9:37:30 AM

AD line opens at -323 and is falling.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 9:35:04 AM

Swing trade short stop alert for Sunoco (SUN) $75.50 +1.80%

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 9:32:24 AM

Sunoco (SUN) $75.11 +1.30% ... open for trade.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 9:24:14 AM


DJ- Any major disruption in oil supply to the U.S., especially from the Middle East, could have an impact on the economy as it has become more sensitive to costlier oil than a year ago, according to a report from Standard & Poor's.

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 9:23:11 AM

Ok we now have ES and YM in sort of bullish patterns and ER and NQ in bearish patterns. How would you trade this market? Long or short?

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 9:21:51 AM

All I can say here is "What a shame I sold my QQQQ puts on Friday."

This is one of the most perfectly bearish charts I can find. Link

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 9:20:17 AM

I find nothing bullish about this chart and think new yearly lows have a much higher probability than new yearly highs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 9:19:01 AM

Pivot Levels (DAILY/WEEKLY/MONTHLY) for current OPEN MM Profiles at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 9:16:29 AM

The upward channel on the YM chart has a steeper angle and therefore much easier to break through so if YM breaks the bottom line of the channel the bulls should not worry too much. however, a break of the 100 and 50 EMA should get them to pay attention. Link

Keene Little : 8/7/2006 9:11:35 AM

ES 1284.25 was the 16:00 closing price on Friday so any open below that would say SPX cash market will open down as well. Based on the bearish kiss goodbye setup I showed on the SPX chart below, any down opening could be the follow through to Friday's decline. But caution will be required for the next day and a half as we head into FOMC. Big money may try to prop this up.

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 9:08:56 AM

ICE $59.46 ... has not traded pre-market. Currently bid/ask (300)$57.50 x $61.57(300)

Jeff Bailey : 8/7/2006 9:06:38 AM

Sunoco (SUN) $74.14 ... has traded 100 shares in pre-market at $76.33. Currently bid/ask (150)$74.68 x $75.69(100)

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 9:04:27 AM

On Friday ES broke through the resistance at 1290 but was not able to sustain the break and the day ended up a doji. The end of day buying made the doji a little less ominous but it was bearish all the same.

I am now concentrating on the upward channel that ES has been in since July 18th and require the bulls to hold above the 50EMA (1274) which is the bottom line of the upward channel. A break of this support would probably also cross the MACD. Link

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 8:47:35 AM

Dateline WSJ - Several different options grants to top Apple Computer Inc. executives were dated just before sharp increases in the company's stock between 1997 and 2001, a review of regulatory filings shows.

Apple late last week said an internal probe of its past options-granting practices had found additional evidence of "irregularities," and that it is likely to restate past financial results to correct options-related accounting problems. The news sent Apple's stock down 1.9% Friday and threatened to cast a shadow over the company's annual developer conference starting today in San Francisco, where the company is expected to showcase new Macintosh computer products.

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 8:42:51 AM

I'm sure the news about BP cutting back 400,000/bp per day was leaked about 10:00PM EDT Sunday because that was when Oil spiked.

Natural Gas opened its overnight session below its PDL and has not been able to recover since.

Gold had a rather quiet overnight session and stayed within it PDR.

TBonds also had a quiet overnight session. Link

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 8:36:44 AM

Good Morning all. Markets are under pressure and I'm sure partly due to the spike in Oil prices. No market has broken its previous day low but ES has tested its PDL Link

Jane Fox : 8/7/2006 8:34:39 AM

Here is why Oil spiked overnight. BP PLC said it will shut down its Prudhoe Bay oil field in Alaska, taking crude oil off the market in a time of tight supplies and rising demand, following the discovery of a corroded pipeline and small leak there.

The shutdown by the London energy titan comes as it seeks to patch up its image in North America, which has been marred by safety and environmental concerns in Alaska and elsewhere.

The shutdown, disclosed last night and expected to occur over several days, will result in curtailment of an estimated 400,000 barrels a day of oil, almost half the total daily production from fields on Alaska's North Slope. While the amount is relatively small compared with the 20.7 million barrels of oil a day consumed in the U.S. last year, the shutdown could affect oil markets because the thin margin between supply and demand has led to volatility.

BP officials said they wouldn't resume production at Prudhoe Bay until they and government regulators can be assured operations will present no further threat to the environment.

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