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Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 1:35:26 AM

Hang Seng ($HSI.X) Link ... threatens May highs and currently up 142 points, or +0.84% at 17,191.

Session High/Low has been 17,191/16,960.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 1:20:12 AM

EIA Weekly Gross Inputs, Refinery Op. Capacity, Pct. Utilization Preview assuming no net changes from prior week at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 12:51:53 AM

EIA Weekly Inventory Preview assuming no net changes from prior week at this Link ... I've sent a couple of questions to the EIA regarding their Diesel (0-15 ppm Sulfer) data.

This weekend I couldn't believe stations were charging $3.30/gallon for diesel here in Denver. And news this weekend of a supply shortage?

Keene Little : 8/8/2006 11:36:23 PM

ES and YM show a similar pattern where each failed at the retest of their broken uptrend lines.
ES: Link
YM: Link

For both of these you can see the break of the uptrend line, consolidation underneath it for the past 2 days, the pop higher up to it at the FOMC announcement and then the failure of the retest. It would have been a brave trade but that spike higher post-FOMC was your ideal short entry point at those uptrend lines.

I show on the charts a Fib projection for both if they get two equal legs down from last Friday's high, at ES 1268.25 and YM 11143. Interestingly both of those projections take price down to the point where it could find support on a parallel line based off the trend line along recent highs. In other words if we have a larger parallel up-channel in play then we might find support soon for the start of another leg higher. I mention this in order to keep you bears from over salivating at the prospects for a juicy short from here.

Looking at the NQ chart I see some interesting bullish possibilities. It may also find support at the bottom of a potential parallel up-channel and is showing a bullish divergence at this afternoon's low (if it holds here). Based on this pattern (and the internal wave structure--the 3-wave advance to last Friday's high) I would be careful about trying to short the market as this one is flashing buy signals at me. Link

My first reaction when looking over the charts at the end of the day Tuesday was to issue a strong sell signal but I backed away from that as I looked a little deeper. ES and YM, with their ascending wedges and kisses goodbye at broken uptrend lines tell me to get short. But with the possibility for larger parallel up-channels and NQ's more bullish potential I must admit I'm a nervous bear here. I'm not quite ready to buy this but I'm certainly not going to get short and walk away. I suggest the same for all of us for another day at least.

Keene Little : 8/8/2006 11:13:44 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 10:58:19 PM

US Dollar Index (dx00y) 60-minute intervals (all sessions) with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 10:14:00 PM

I think they've gotten burned by trying to "buy weakness" instead of selling it Marc!

One of the first rules I learned ... buy strength, sell weakness.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 10:11:50 PM

I hope bullish traders aren't still holding Black & Decker (BDK) Link from $76.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 10:11:45 PM

I hope bullish traders aren't still holding eBay (EBAY) Link from $36.

OI Technical Staff : 8/8/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 9:59:33 PM

This type of overnight volume hints that it is "overseas" traders/investors a little more interested in this commodity that U.S. traders.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 10:02:30 PM

December Gold (gc06z) with similar retracement I had been using at this Link ... BIG volume tonight.

WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... $627.20, $641.70, Piv= $654.90, $669.40, $682.60.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 9:24:07 PM

Bullish % Japan (BPTO) at this Link

Just about the same level of risk and strength/weakness as found in early July (7).

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 9:17:24 PM

This is a "rule" from a very active trading website. It just amazes me that no one on that site is currently following their own mantra, but that is the mind works when get when things go bad (or things go euphorically well): Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 9:13:38 PM

Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) Link is down 54 points, or -0.35% at 15,411.

Session High/Low so far 15,420/15,329

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 9:09:23 PM

December Gold (gc06z) down 7.30 at $650.00

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 9:07:49 PM

Index Pivot Matrix for Wednesday at this Link

Dollar Index (dx00y) 85.16 in overnight trade.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 9:14:19 PM

Traders are fixated on selling any bounce, as that is what they are told to do by the media (not a single web site out there that is bullish), so they are robotically following the crowd in the overnight session. The boyz might have other plans than the general population, which is at historical bearish levels sentiment-wise. The key will be tomorrow, once we do another dip and see where the volume comes in. NQ 20 dma is 1495 and I don't expect that to break overnight at this point, maybe at the open. We had that 1492 trade, which might be revisited then, which is why I am keeping the stop at 1483, away from all the noise.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 7:58:56 PM

Seagte offsetting CSCO after hours. Oil is holding up so we will have a mixed open.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 6:08:24 PM

September Crude (cl06u) settled down $0.67, or -0.87% at $76.31.

Keene Little : 8/8/2006 6:01:21 PM

Sorry for my absence today. I just got back from a trip that took WAY longer than it was supposed to. I see ES followed through like I thought it would--spiked up on the post-FOMC results, banged its head on the broken uptrend line again and dropped sharply from there. The rally into the close should set up another shorting opportunity tomorrow with a downside objective of 1268.25 and potentially below 1260. Link

Again, if the ascending wedge is the right interpretation of price action since the July 18th low, it should retrace relatively quickly (faster than it took to rally to last Friday's high) to at least the low on July 21st, so near 1244. I'll take a look at some more charts to see if I get a different picture but so far price is following the script--look for more downside work.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 5:51:41 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Today's Activity

Swing trade shorted a full position in shares of Microsoft (MSFT) at the bid of $24.42. Stop is $24.60, targeting $23.63.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 5:34:43 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 5:13:12 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 5:01:26 PM

Imperial Oil Raises Edmonton Par Crude By C$8 Cu. Meter

DJ- Imperial Oil Ltd. (IMO) raised its purchase price for benchmark 40-degree gravity light crude oil at Edmonton by C$8 a cubic meter to C$538 a cubic meter, effective Tuesday.

In terms of barrels, the company is now offering C$85.55 a barrel, up from C$84.27. The new purchase price indicates an export price delivered to Chicago of about US$77.70 a barrel after considering transportation and import charges and foreign exchange rates.

Actual export prices are confidential but are believed to be closely related to the posted levels.

Imperial Oil is an integrated oil and gas company.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 4:59:52 PM

BP: Studying Options To Operate Portions Of Prudhoe Bay

DJ- BP PLC (BP) said Tuesday it is studying options with state and federal officials to keep pumping oil from part of Alaska's Prudhoe Bay field, the country's largest, while shutting down other areas to replace corroded pipelines.

"BP is studying options with the US Department of Transportation and Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation for safely operating portions of the Prudhoe Bay field while inspections are conducted and a forward plan is developed," the company said in an emailed statement.

The statement echoed comments by U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman, who said earlier Tuesday that BP was considering maintaining oil production at the western part of the field. Those comments helped send crude oil futures lower for the day in New York.

BP said Sunday it would begin shutting down all production at Prudhoe Bay after discovering severe pipeline corrosion and a small oil leak.

In its emailed statement Tuesday, the company said it has already shut in 200,000 barrels a day of production and that the total shut-in still could reach 400,000 barrels a day, the original maximum forecast and equal to about 8% of U.S. domestic output.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 4:58:33 PM

BP: 200,000 B/D Prudhoe Bay Oil Output Now Shut In

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 4:52:11 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) alert $18.83 now.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 4:44:29 PM

Stop is just right at 1483. August 1st low is 1483.50 and I see no reason to believe we will lose that support. Oil is down, gold is down, CSCO delivered and SMH has held 20 dma through all this. Onward and upward.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 4:42:17 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) alert $18.10 now

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 4:41:15 PM

Trade Recap
Day: NQ +9 (+$180 per)
Week: NQ +7 (+$140 per)
Open position: Long NQ 1483, stop 1483 (+12 unrealized)

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 4:27:10 PM

SMH $31.03 -0.22% ... $31.17 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 4:26:04 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $17.29 -0.68% ... $17.57 now.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 4:22:24 PM

Juniper (JNPR) $12.92 -0.61% ... $13.00 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 4:21:26 PM

Lucent (LU) $2.05 -0.96% ... flat extended.

Nortel (NT) $2.01 ... flat extended

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 4:21:02 PM

Key reisistance for CSCO is 17.77. Keep an eye on that one (20 dma)

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 4:20:07 PM

Cisco Systems' WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... $16.31, $16.78, Piv= $17.57, $18.03, $18.82

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 4:19:19 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $17.29 ... $17.73 now.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 4:18:47 PM

Tomorrow's economic releases include:

10a.m. June Wholesale Inventories. Previous: +0.8%.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 4:18:25 PM

CSCO taking off. 17.70 now.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 4:16:49 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) Earnings Press Release Link

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 4:16:34 PM

Cisco Systems Inc. reported its earnings were flat, weighed down by stock-option costs and acquisition charges, while revenue jumped 21% helped by the purchase of set-top box maker Scientific-Atlanta.

The networking equipment giant posted net income of $1.54 billion, or 25 cents a share, for the quarter ended July 29, compared with $$1.54 billion, or 24 cents a share, a year earlier. Revenue was $7.98 billion, up from $6.58 billion.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 4:14:58 PM

QQQQ $36.49 -0.59% ... $36.54 extended

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 4:14:27 PM

Intel (INTC) $17.35 +0.17% ... $17.37 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 4:14:02 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $24.34 +0.49% ... $24.32 extended.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 4:13:18 PM

All that talk about inflation, but gold is down. Interesting. If CSCO does not give a bleak forecast, we could be off to the races.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 4:12:55 PM

Cisco (CSCO) $17.29 -0.68% .... $17.58 extended.

Intra-day Low/High was $17.15/$17.65

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 4:11:43 PM

CSCO getting a bid.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 4:11:38 PM

Cisco Systems

4Q EPS 25c Vs 24c

4Q Sales $7.98B Vs $6.58B, +21%

4Q Net $1.544B Vs $1.540B, +0.3%

4Q Non-GAAP EPS 30c

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 4:10:13 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $17.29 -0.68% ... $17.54 on headline number.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 4:07:10 PM

NQ is back above 61.8% rally (1488). Everything is going pretty much like I tought it would, an initial day of selling, hopefully followed by a sustained August rally. If we had rallied today, I would have been worried. This low volume selling 3 days in a row is actually very good news for future action to the upside. Let's see what CSCO has to say.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 4:06:25 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPY $127.40

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 4:04:54 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1483, raise stop to even.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 3:59:36 PM

Looking for 11204 - 15 = 11189

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 3:49:16 PM

TICKS +1000 and YM's CCI is +227 I will benchmark YM when the CCI crossed back below +200. Now YM 11204.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 3:48:49 PM

NASDAQ New Lows ... currently 122. Still above recent relative low measures of 134

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 3:46:49 PM

YORK (MarketWatch) -- Qimonda, the memory specialist for Germany's Infineon Technologies, could face a price cut ahead of its Wednesday debut as the latest in a series of major chip firm transactions.

Qimonda (QI) plans to sell 63 million shares at $16 to $18 a share in a bid to raise about $1 billion with underwriters Credit Suisse and J.P. Morgan.

However, market observers are expecting a possible discount or even a postponement of the deal.

"It'll have to be priced to sell," said IPO analyst John Fitzgibbon. He added that Qimonda faces a choppy market in a weak sector.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 3:42:45 PM

NYSE DECLINERS OUTNUMBER ADVANCERS 17 TO 15

NASDAQ DECLINERS OUTNUMBER ADVANERS 18 TO 11

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 3:37:54 PM

YM a tad more bullish but on the cusp. Link

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 3:36:31 PM

Link

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 3:34:39 PM

ES bulls do not want this market to close below the daily 50 EMA at 1274 but I think there is a very good chance of that happening today.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 3:34:19 PM

SPY $127.08 -0.66% ... probes its trending higher 200-day SMA.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 3:34:07 PM

SMH 20 dma was exact support and they should hold that (30.72)

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 3:32:36 PM

BIX alert 382.84 -0.90% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 3:32:26 PM

I am going to give this more room. This low volume action is pretty unpredictable, but I doubt bears will be able to crush the markets ahead of CSCO. I want to ride out the noise for now. If you are not comfortable, leave the stop at even (1483).

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 3:31:08 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1483, lower stop to 1478.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 3:30:20 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $17.23 -1.09% ... earnings after the bell.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 3:29:54 PM

SMH $30.87 -0.73% ... tried to hang in there at unchanged for awhile.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 3:22:17 PM

Now ES.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 3:21:54 PM

YM daily lows are 11185 and there they go.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 3:20:03 PM

Looks like YM next.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 3:17:54 PM

Yup ER to new daily lows first.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 3:11:07 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 3:10:43 PM

However, the VIX is not partcipating in the bearishness and that will keep me on the sidelines .... waiting!

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 3:10:00 PM

These are not pretty. Link

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 3:09:04 PM

All markets are now trading below their respective PDLs.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 3:08:32 PM

My bet is on ER.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 3:07:18 PM

I think we should take bets as to which market makes new daily lows first.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 3:02:38 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 2:57:49 PM

RYL $42.75 -3.58% ... still hasn't traded my exit of $42.40 on 08/04/06.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 2:56:17 PM

Russell 2000 (RUT.X) 692.00 -0.58% ... only index in Pivot Matrix to NOT trade WEEKLY Pivot. Knee-jerk high has been 700.92

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 2:56:12 PM

CSCO after the bell.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 2:54:51 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPY $127.65

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 2:54:20 PM

Back in an hour.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 2:54:00 PM

The lone lunatic has a past of prior lunacy:
Aug. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker, who has warned of complacency in fighting inflation, disagreed with the Fed's decision today to forgo an interest-rate increase. The rebellion is the first on the Federal Open Market Committee since Ben S. Bernanke became chairman in February and the only one since Hurricane Katrina came ashore last August, displacing millions and killing more than 1,800 people. He argued for a quarter-point rate increase. Lacker, 50, who has led the Richmond Fed for two years, may try to persuade the central bank to resume lifting rates in September, with inflation exceeding the fed's comfort zone. As research director of the Richmond Fed, he was an advisor to Al Broaddus, who cast six dissenting votes in the mid-1990s in favor of stronger Fed action to quash inflation. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 2:49:50 PM

There's been some "dinger" buy/sell premiums

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 2:48:10 PM

BIX 386.05 -0.07% .... it IS juuust above its WEEKLY Pivot.

5-year down 1.6 bp ... 30-year up 1.5 bp

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 2:47:44 PM

Everyone who thinks daily lows will not hold raise your hand.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 2:47:02 PM

YM did get the 15 points off the +1000 TICK/CCI combo. Cool!

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 2:46:09 PM

Sell Program Premium SPY 127.77 ... couldn't get back above WEEKLY Pivot.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 2:45:16 PM

I have to step away, stops stays at 1483 for now. Looks like we could get one more wave of selling, but hopefully they keep it above 1486.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 2:44:52 PM

These gyrations have to be "the greatest show on earth." Simply amazes me.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 2:44:12 PM

1498.50 is 50% of rally

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 2:43:51 PM

Let's just benchmark the YM at 11255

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 2:42:48 PM

YM's 3min CCI hit +303.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 2:41:40 PM

TICKS +1000. I would not fade this.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 2:41:23 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPY $127.90 ... can't keep up.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 2:41:14 PM

PPT has arrived and TICKS hit +800.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 2:41:02 PM

NQ above 20 dma.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 2:40:56 PM

Here's where an ES/SPY short has to be careful...

5-year down 1.9 bp

30-year up 1.1 bp ... steepening of curve near-term.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 2:39:06 PM

RYL $42.93 -3.17% ... bugger "popped" to $44.50 on FOMC jerk.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 2:38:24 PM

sox green

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 2:38:20 PM

So true Marc, chart indicators are useless now.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 2:38:16 PM

Homebuilders (DJUSHB) ... 624.95 -3.35% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 2:37:35 PM

Price is all that matters when you have violent swings, you can't rely on much else.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 2:36:15 PM

20 dma 1496.50

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 2:36:02 PM

But before you get too bullish (as if you could) notice that NQ has confirmed it bear flag. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 2:36:01 PM

Bears could not break support and we should get back to 1497 soon.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 2:35:35 PM

Above 1492.75, we are going to make it.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 2:35:12 PM

SOX red but SMH green.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 2:34:55 PM

We are holding 1486/1488. That is important.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 2:34:53 PM

YM breaks its upward channel but like I said yesterday that is not too bearish considering the angle of the channel. However, I did require YM bulls to hold the 50EMA which it has done. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 2:34:13 PM

NQ advdec line getting worse. Here is the second wave

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 2:33:58 PM

INTC up .46, MSFT up .33%, GOOG up .62%.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 2:32:17 PM

Weekly S1 is 1486.25, 61.8% of rally is 1488.75.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 2:30:53 PM

That was easy. Now we wait. If it doesn't work, nothing lost. If it works, it will hold up for the entire month.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 2:30:16 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $24.32 after kiss of WEEKLY Pivot.

60-minute interval chart captures prior to FOMC decision with QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot Levels. Dark Purple is my "Dutch Auction" retracement Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 2:29:47 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1483, raise stop to even on remaining.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 2:28:56 PM

+10 partial.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 2:28:28 PM

We all knew they would make hawkish comments, they had to. But bottom line, rates are not going up until next month.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 2:28:26 PM

QQQQ $36.46 ... after kiss of WEEKLY S1

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 2:27:12 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPY $127.50

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 2:26:52 PM

Let's get a rally above 1486. Watch 1492.75 R

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 2:26:36 PM

We mad + 8 roday, this is just a 3 point orsk.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 2:26:17 PM

ES's daily lows so far 1273.50.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 2:26:08 PM

Time to test the waters at s2.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 2:25:56 PM

Multiple Sell Program Premium ... drives SPY $127.24

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 2:25:53 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long NQ 1483, stop 1480.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 2:25:50 PM

I still think 1274 is the line in the sand for ES. 1274 is the 50EMA. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 2:24:49 PM

AD lines not that bad

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 2:23:49 PM

02:20 Market Watch at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 2:22:57 PM

Sad newd for NQ. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 2:22:51 PM

1488 is a support zone

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 2:22:35 PM

Here they come, let them do it

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 2:21:10 PM

Nq has not even made a new daily high!!

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 2:19:24 PM

FOMC statement Link

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 2:16:57 PM

* FOMC VOTE NOT UNANIMOUS, ONE WANTED HIKE
* FOMC REPEATS FURTHER TIGHTENING DEPENDS ON DATA
* FOMC SAYS INFLATION LIKELY TO MODERATE OVER TIME
* FOMC REPEATS SOME INFLATION RISKS REMAIN
* FOMC PAUSES, HOLDS RATES AT 5.25%

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 2:16:40 PM

ICE $60.00 +2.10% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 2:16:11 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPY $128.20

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 2:15:13 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPY $128.31

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 2:15:10 PM

Inflation pressure are moderate at this time.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 2:14:52 PM

TICKS hit +1000

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 2:14:49 PM

FOMC Keeps Target at 5.25% ... unchanged

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 2:15:17 PM

No rate raise!

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 2:07:15 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - Cisco Systems Inc., News Corp. and BMC Software Inc. are among the companies on the docket to report financial results Tuesday evening.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 2:00:39 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found a this Link

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 1:59:07 PM

VIX to new daily highs and AD line and volume to new daily lows.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 1:57:58 PM

ES is making new daily lows as the VIX is making new daily highs. Too close to the FOMC decision for me to trade so I .... wait!

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 1:50:53 PM

GSO.X 155.50 +0.32% ... juuuust below its WEEKLY Pivot of 155.78

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 1:50:01 PM

Swing trade short a full position in shares of Microsoft (MSFT) $24.42 +0.82% here, stop $24.60, target $23.63.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 1:47:52 PM

Here's a trade I do "like" into the Fed. It is a Microsoft (MSFT) short, based on the Dutch Auction price outline.

I think a relatively LOW risk short is to short it here, $24.43, stop just above WEEKLY R1 ($24.57), then look for a decline to $23.63, which is 50% of $24.75-$22.50 Dutch Auction range.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 1:44:16 PM

ALl the internals have just taken a bearish turn.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 1:37:34 PM

For VIX ... being above WEEKLY Pivot is slightly bearish (for me) and if anything, this "jives" with the flattening YIELD curve on a 5-day basis.

But being below MONTHLY Pivot is slightly bullish (for me) and if anything, this "jives" with the still steeper YIELD curve on a 20-day basis.

It probably is NOT a coincidence that the BIX has been STRONG in the MONTHLY Pivot (It has traded MONTHLY R1), but a little "weak" today.

If the banks have done all they can on a near-term basis, that's where I get my "I want to short/put" bias.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 1:33:16 PM

Talk about eating - the downside to boring markets and working at home is that one has a tendency to raid the fridge a lot more often.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 1:32:07 PM

VIX ... 60-minute Interval chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link ... Overlap at 15.77 and heck, lets use the 14.00.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 1:24:37 PM

Eating at me, or my mind, is SPY $128.25, where I had the stop on the Aug $126 Puts.

At this point, and a couple of days ago, I felt if SPY traded up here, the the put OI below was going to be too much for an in the money close by August expiration, and best to just move to the sidelines on that trade.

The BIX strength was simply waaaaay more than I had accounted/thought could take place and I must confess, the decline in bond YIELDS also further than I thought achievable at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 1:20:58 PM

Jane .... I just think whatever a trader does, a YM may well have to risk 50-points (up/down) of volatility from an entry point.

Almost tempted to buy SPY out money put/call and let them rip.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 1:18:57 PM

01:05 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 1:08:22 PM

01:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 12:48:53 PM

I'm with you Jeff the charts are telling me short but I surely cannot pull the trigger to put my money where my brain is.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 12:46:53 PM

BIX 385.41 -0.24% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 12:45:03 PM

My eyes say "short," but my brain says don't do it.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 12:43:57 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- PXRE Group (PXT) Ltd. is preparing to shut itself down as many customers cancelled policies after the reinsurer was crippled by last year's record hurricane season.

PXRE Chief Executive Jeffrey Radke announced late Monday that as of Aug. 1, roughly 82% of the company's 2006 business has been cancelled or not renewed. This should increase as more contracts that are due to be updated aren't renewed, he said.

Radke added that he hoped the company could arrange "a strategic alternative that is attractive to our shareholders." But if that's not possible, Radke said the company could decide that the best option is to place PXRE's ( reinsurance business into runoff and eventually start winding up the company's operations.

Runoff describes when an insurer or reinsurer stops accepting new business and manages its current policies until all claims are paid.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 12:41:27 PM

Dateline WSJ Alert - Pixar awarded stock options priced at lows in some years between 1997 and 2003.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 12:36:28 PM

AD line and volume are just not telling me anything today. Both are barely above 0 and have no direction.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 12:32:15 PM

Opps VIX to a new daily high!

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 12:30:46 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Government meteorologists on Tuesday tamped down slightly their forecast for this year's hurricane season, but they warned that weather patterns still point to an "above-normal" level of storm activity.

"The important message is that we still expect an active season," said Gerry Bell, the lead seasonal hurricane forecaster fur the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, during a news conference.

NOAA meteorologists said that they now expect a total of 12 to 15 named storms, with seven to nine expected to intensify to hurricane status. The agency, which is part of the Commerce Department, expects three or four to become major hurricanes -- rated Category 3, which typically pack winds of 111 to 130 miles per hour, or higher.

The hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30, has so far produced three named storms, none of which has reached hurricane strength. The peak of the season typically occurs from August through October.

If you trade Nat Gas or Oil this is the kind of news you need to watch.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 12:30:32 PM

EIA: Second Quarter 2006 Was Warmer Than Normal

Despite Heat Wave, Cooling-Degree Days Unchanged From 2005

EIA Predicts 2006 Cooling-Degree Days Above Normal

EIA Sees US Electricity Use Up 0.6% in 2006

Sees US Electricity Use Up 1.1% In 2007

US Power Prices Up 11% First Half Of 2006 Vs 2005

Coal Prices For Elec Generation Up 11%

Natural Gas Prices For Elec Generation Up 12%

Loosened Retail Elec Price Caps Helped Boost Prices

EIA Sees Electricity Prices Rising More, But More Slowly

Coal Used To Generate Power To Rise 1.3% In 2007

Coal Production To Grow 1.8% In 2006

Coal Production To Grow 0.4% In 2007

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 12:27:22 PM

As of 11:58EDT

* NYSE VOLUME 555.7M
* NYSE HAS 1,801 ADVANCERS
* NYSE HAS 1,234 DECLINERS
* NYSE HAS 183 ISSUES UNCHANGED
* NYSE HAS 78 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK HIGHS
* NYSE HAS 51 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK LOWS
* NASDAQ VOLUME 683M
* NASDAQ HAS 1,551 GAINERS
* NASDAQ HAS 1,216 LOSERS
* NASDAQ HAS 174 ISSUES UNCHANGED
* NASDAQ HAS 45 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK HIGHS
* NASDAQ HAS 93 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK LOWS

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 12:24:03 PM

Bodman: Saudi Oil Minister 'Made It Clear' Oil Will Be Available

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 12:23:29 PM

Bodman: U.S. In 'Reasonable Shape' To Deal With Alaska Outage

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 12:22:51 PM

Bodman: No Request For Crude Oil From SPR Yet

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 12:22:47 PM

Here is a stock I took a long position in last week, Imperial Oil. They have a large footprint in the Alberta Oil Sands. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 12:22:18 PM

Energy Secretary Bodman: Complete Prudhoe Bay Shut-In May Not Be Necessary

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 12:21:33 PM

A lot of news hitting the wires regarding U.S. energy supplies.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 12:18:26 PM

Yep ... I saw the time/sales record the volume, chart showed it too. Not that volume is gone.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 12:16:51 PM

That observation from 12:13:08 ... now recorded as a "bad tick."

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 12:15:10 PM

VIX 15.16 -0.45% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 12:14:30 PM

SPY $128.03

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 12:14:14 PM

Something "funky" getting ready to take place.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 12:13:08 PM

SPY ... see 1,178,000 block traded lower at $127.72

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 12:10:42 PM

SPY $128.00 +0.03% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 12:10:00 PM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 385.69 -0.20% ... probes WEEKLY Pivot

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 12:03:20 PM

EIA: Predicts Dry Natural Gas Production Up 1.3% in 2006; Up 0.4% in 2007

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 11:57:41 AM

September Natural Gas (ng06u) $7.21 +4.38% ... gets the percentage pop from 11:00 AM EDT.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 11:56:18 AM

Dateline WSJ - AOL Inc., in a move that raised online-privacy concerns, said it mistakenly released data about the Web-search habits of more than 650,000 AOL members.

The AOL users weren't personally identified in the data and instead were tracked by anonymous user-ID numbers. However, numbers would still allow everyone from law enforcement to identity thieves to analyze an individual's searches -- which could involve names, addresses and other subjects that could provide hints to the individual's identities. Andrew Weinstein, a spokesman for the Time Warner Inc. unit, acknowledged that "search queries themselves can sometimes include such information" and called the release "a screw-up."

AOL researchers posted the data, which detailed more than 20 million queries made by the users between March 1 and May 31, without authorization, to a new AOL research Web site about 10 days ago. The document was for use by other search-technology researchers, but was noticed by bloggers in the search-marketing field late Sunday. Their discovery set off a flurry of blog postings and apparently led to hundreds of downloads of the data. AOL said it immediately pulled the data off its site Sunday when it realized what had happened.

Tab Gilles : 8/8/2006 11:59:58 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR)

NOAA revised hurricane season, calls for less storms. Great news for Murphy Oil with a refinery in Meraux, Louisiana. Link

I was looking for a reversal at $49, MUR got as low as $49.32 August 4th intra-day low.

MUR Link Link

$DJUSEN Link

With BP shuting down Prudhoe Bay pipeline, and now saying it may not be up and running fully until Jan. '07.

Enter MUR here. Around $51, Stop $47, P/O $58.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 11:48:12 AM

Dateline WSJ - Nokia Corp. said it signed a deal to buy U.S. digital-music distributor Loudeye Corp., in a move that takes the world's biggest cellphone manufacturer by sales into the new business of content distribution.

Nokia of Finland hopes the $60 million acquisition will help drive sales of its high-end - and highest-margin - gadgets that allow users to play music, watch television and play games. Nokia also recently said it plans to start offering a videogame distribution service for cellphones. Industry watchers expect the company to branch out into video next.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 11:47:34 AM

Dateline WSJ - Storage-networking firm Brocade Communications Systems Inc. agreed to buy rival McData Corp. in a stock swap initially worth about $713 million.

San Jose, Calif.-based Brocade said it will exchange 0.75 of its shares for each class A and class B of McData's stock. Based on Monday's closing prices on the Nasdaq Stock Market, Brocade said the offer valued McData at $4.61 a share, or $713 million.

McData, which was spun off by EMC Corp. in 2000, makes switches to help connect computer servers and data-storage systems. On Tuesday, the Broomfield, Colo., company warned of a second-quarter loss and weaker than expected sales, citing soft demand for its high-end products.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 11:40:45 AM

As I look at September Crude and some other "oil-related stocks" on 60-minute intervals, I see a lot of head/shoulder top formations, where "right shoulders" could have been formed yesterday.

Probably need some of those highs taken out, get a pulse on shorts.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 11:40:25 AM

Once again the VIX saved us from "buying" into ES's test of daily highs.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 11:37:50 AM

Jane ... yes I think so.

Marc posted what looked to be a "bearish" article for oil last night. But I think the EIA comments brings in some "risk premium" to January as the MARKET begins to get some more information.

BP wasn't giving any time lines yesterday.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 11:33:16 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 11:31:42 AM

I guess the news about Prudhoe Bay down until January affected the Nat Gas market as well because it took off at the same time as Crude.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 11:31:28 AM

Occidental (OXY) $106.56 -0.68% ... not seeing all that much of a lift. Session low has been $106.00.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 11:30:02 AM

DJ- Nymex Crude Rallies As EIA Sees Prudhoe Bay Down Until January

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 11:29:42 AM

TICKS hit +800 and ES tests its daily highs. VIX is telling me if it makes a new high it will not hold so don't buy this.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 11:28:55 AM

With all the bad news out about the home builders I would love to short this index ($RUF.x) but the MACD and RSI have both made a higher high as price only made an equal high so I think I will wait on this one. Man alive I am doing a lot of "waiting." Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 11:28:22 AM

EIA: Saudi, Latin America Crudes May Offset All, Part of Shortfall

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 11:28:18 AM

EIA: Several Substitutes For Alaska Crude Available

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 11:28:10 AM

EIA Estimates Global Oil Spare Capacity 1.1M-1.3M B/D

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 11:25:39 AM

Jeff I wonder if the news about BP was what made Oil take off.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 11:28:02 AM

EIA Saying it sees Prudhoe Bay Output Resuming to Normal by January

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 11:19:36 AM

Oil is also testing its PDH but as yet had not broken it.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 11:18:55 AM

Natural GAS is taking off and has broken its PDH. So much for waiting until the FED decision to go long!

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 11:03:50 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link ... Homebuilders weak .... Profit taking perhaps, but gains there have RISK into FOMC.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 11:01:04 AM

WE know if the FED decides to raise rates again that the market will tank but what is unknown is what the market will do if he pauses. Is the pause already baked in the cake? I think so.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 10:59:55 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to pause Tuesday after 25 months of tightening as it attempts to balance between slower growth and emerging inflationary pressures, economists said.

Economic data since the last FOMC meeting has clearly shown that the economy is slowing. Job reports have been tepid, GDP growth was much lower in the second quarter relative to the first quarter, and consumer and business spending were sluggish.

But at the same time, inflation pressures were emerging. Core CPI inflation has risen 0.3% for the past four months. And just this morning, new Labor Department data showed a clear upward trend in unit labor cost

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 10:59:19 AM

It has been the action in the S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) which has confused me the most (see U.S. Market Watch).

Here's a 60-minute interval chart of the BIX.X Link

One thought I ponder is just "why the banks have been so strong?" I think the answer is buying based on the MARKET's perception that the Fed is done, or near completion of its tightening cycle.

But ... that might NOT be a good thing as it relates to where current Fed Funds are at, and where YIELDS are at.

So .... "how does the Fed try and correct things" in order to BENEFIT the banks?

1) LOWER the Fed Funds rate is one way. But in my opinion, recent economic data on inflation is still to "obvious" for this option in my opinion.

2) The Fed can "talk" to the bond market, speak of inflation and create a bias toward FURTHER TIGHTENING.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 10:35:10 AM

* NYSE VOLUME 227.1M
* NYSE HAS 1,509 ADVANCERS
* NYSE HAS 1,228 DECLINERS
* NYSE HAS 189 ISSUES UNCHANGED
* NYSE HAS 68 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK HIGHS
* NYSE HAS 48 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK LOWS
* NASDAQ VOLUME 294.5M
* NASDAQ HAS 1,273 GAINERS
* NASDAQ HAS 1,178 LOSERS
* NASDAQ HAS 159 ISSUES UNCHANGED
* NASDAQ HAS 42 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK HIGHS
* NASDAQ HAS 82 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK LOWS

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 10:30:59 AM

It is not often the market does what I think it should do but it is this morning - it is doing nothing.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 10:25:01 AM

I am going to close this before I leave. We bagged 8 points and now we wait for another opp. See you later. 10 dma is R at 507.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 10:24:25 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
+6

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 10:17:23 AM

10:08 AM Market Watch found at this Link ... I've displayed both the 5-day and 10-day Net to get a look at the YIELD Curve (from 5-year to 30-year). Flattening "short-term," but still steepening "intermediate-term."

Thoughts:

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 10:12:25 AM

ES's new daily high is not supported by the VIX so I would not be buying it.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 10:08:22 AM

HEMPSTEAD, N.Y. (MarketWatch) -- The rising cost of money may be slowing the economy, but the amount of liquidity that remains continues to fuel inflation. This means that stagflation is making a comeback.

First coined by the late British Chancellor of the Exchequer, Iain Macleod, stagflation refers to the vicious combination of rising prices and falling output -- which the U.S. economy is experiencing now.

The 12-month change in consumer prices has jumped from less than 1% four years ago to 4.3% today, while economic growth slowed sharply in the second quarter and appears to be receding even further during the third.

Those who look at interest rates alone think they know why. Monetary policy by this measure has tightened a lot since the middle of 2004. That's when the Federal Reserve began raising its key overnight lending rate, the federal funds rate, from 1% , a 45-year low, to the level where it rests today.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 10:03:36 AM

+4 partial

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 10:04:08 AM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) 60-minute interval chart and WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot Retracement at this Link

Gold, dollar, 10-year pretty much squared up at WEEKLY Pivots.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 10:02:24 AM

VIx is now testing daily lows.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 10:04:17 AM

Back. I will have to leave for a few hours, but we should hold these lows until about 1 PM. Take profits as we move up, but keep some in with a tighter stop.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 10:02:12 AM

TICKs hit +800 and it looks like the buyers are back.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 9:59:23 AM

I will see if I can find as much news as I can to keep us awake.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 9:53:29 AM

stepping away for a sec.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 9:52:55 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1500, stop 1498.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 9:52:39 AM

The VIX has not made a new daily high so would not be short here.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 9:52:23 AM

Since we are holding 1498.50, we try.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 9:52:04 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1500, stop 1497

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 9:50:58 AM

1498.50 hold, (50% rally)

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 9:50:26 AM

AD line and volume continue to fall but wait for confirmation from the VIX and TRIN.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 9:49:55 AM

They are going to fish for some stops. They see you coming and they know where you are. Trendline means nothing for them except a spot to chase stops.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 9:49:53 AM

TRIN daily highs so far are 1.20. If you see the TRIN and the VIX make new daily lows the bears have the reins.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 9:47:57 AM

AD volume dips below 0.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 9:47:19 AM

1497/1498.50 is support 1

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 9:47:05 AM

Ok here is our drop.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 9:46:30 AM

INTC has a bid on the wimax news (see my post last night).

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 9:46:19 AM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) up 1.2 bp at 4.933% and WEEKLY Pivot.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 9:45:39 AM

SOX is green and tat might be it for now

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 9:45:38 AM

ES's new daily lows are not been confirmed by the VIX so I don't think there will be follow through.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 9:43:49 AM

AD line falling to new daily lows at +293

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 9:43:08 AM

The best scenario would be selling now.

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 9:41:44 AM

ICE $59.51 +1.29% ... ICE Futures Sets Exchange-wide and ICE WTI Crude Futures Volume and Open Interest Records Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 9:41:17 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
+3

Marc Eckelberry : 8/8/2006 9:40:29 AM

NQ 20 dma has shifted to 1497. S1 is 1492 and weekly s1 is 1486. These are the downside risks and there will be some selling on the news. We might also get the seling now, it's hard to tell. I am tempted to close out the trade and put in a buy order lower.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 9:39:29 AM

All markets except YM are now making new daily lows. I think the TRIN is the internal to watch today.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 9:42:33 AM

VIX is making new daily lows but the TRIN is climbing.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 9:37:24 AM

AD line is now +690 so the bulls are getting stronger.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 9:37:01 AM

INTC is making a perfect triangle here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/8/2006 9:35:46 AM

Index Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 9:35:24 AM

All markets open above their PDHs (using the intraday PDH) except NQ.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 9:33:16 AM

VIX opens within its PDR but I see the TRIN has spiked above its PDH and may be the hint we needed. I will wait until the first 5 minute closes before I make a TRIN determination however.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 9:32:06 AM

AD line is +400 and AD volume above 0. Neither the bulls nor the bears have the reins this morning.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 9:30:49 AM

And NQ remains bearish as well below all trendlines and major MAs. Link

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 9:29:25 AM

This market remains bearish with MACD confirming. Link

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 9:24:44 AM

Ditto here. Link

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 9:24:07 AM

ES remains in its upward channel and still above its 50EMA. This market is not giving me enough to trade it either way so I wait here as well. Link

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 9:14:49 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Crude prices edged lower Tuesday as some traders said oil supplies were sufficient to weather the reduction in output caused by BP's pipeline shutdown in Alaska, but Iran's defiant talk on its nuclear program and the continuing violence in the Middle East were putting a floor under any declines.

Crude for September delivery was last down 27 cents at $76.71 a barrel in electronic trading after ending Monday's session just shy of its record-high of $77.03 a barrel. Gasoline futures were down 2.31 cents at $2.229 a gallon while heating oil futures were unchanged at $2.144 a gallon.

We're seeing "a little profit taking," said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Alaron Trading. "The market is starting to put the [BP] outage in perspective."

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 9:13:50 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Profitable Aircastle Ltd. priced atop its range as the jet leasing firm got ready to take off Tuesday as the first in a series of initial public offerings this week.

Stamford, Conn.-based Aircastle (AYR) is going public at $23 a share, raising $209 million by pricing 9.1 million shares at the high end of the $21-$23 a share price range.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 9:04:25 AM

Both Oil and Gold are now breaking to new overnight lows (using 9:30EDT as the start of the intraday session)

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 8:58:44 AM

Food-service provider Aramark Corp. (RMK) Tuesday said it agreed to be acquired by a group of private-equity investors in a deal valued at about $8.3 billion, including the assumption of debt.

Under the terms of the agreement, Aramark stockholders will receive $33.80 in cash for each Aramark share.

The transaction is expected to be completed by late 2006 or early 2007, subject to receipt of stockholder approval and regulatory approvals, as well as satisfaction of other customary closing conditions

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 8:56:06 AM

I am very tempted to take a long in Natural Gas but I am not sure how this market reacts to an FOMC decision so I will wait and just watch for now.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 8:54:40 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Mounting evidence of slower economic growth will allow the Federal Open Market Committee to hold interest rates steady at its meeting Tuesday, Fed watchers said.

But in order to maintain its inflation-fighting credibility, the FOMC will sing a hawkish tune in its policy statement, signaling that a pause does not mean an end to the tightening cycle. "We're assuming a pause. We think they will keep some harsh rhetoric about the inflation concern so that they can appease those that might think that the pause is coming a little bit soon," said Mike Englund, chief economist at Action Economics.

Fed officials have "orchestrated" the expectations for a pause, observed England, with Fed chief Ben Bernanke's relatively dovish testimony to Congress last month and the summary of the FOMC June meeting.

Bernanke's central message was that the economy would slow in coming months, and this would help inflation moderate.

The weak July employment report last Friday served to seal the deal, Englund said.

But to signal that it is keeping an eye on inflation, the policy statement will be more hawkish around the edges

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 8:51:56 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Productivity in the American workplace rose at a slower pace in the second quarter, but a key gauge of inflation accelerated, the Labor Department said Tuesday. Non-farm productivity increased at a 1.1% annual rate in the second quarter. In the first quarter, productivity was revised to a 4.3% increase from 3.7% previously.

Unit labor costs -- a key inflation gauge -- increased 4.2% in the nonfarm business sector during the second quarter, the government's data showed. This marked the fastest quarterly pace since the fourth quarter of 2004. In addition, revisions to previous quarters put unit labor costs on an accelerating trend.

Both productivity and unit labor costs were above expectations. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had predicted productivity would rise 0.9%, while unit labor costs were expected to rise 3.5%.

In the past four quarters, productivity in the nonfarm sector has increased 2.4%, while unit labor costs are up 3.2%, the most since the final three months of 2000.

Unit labor costs in the first quarter were revised to a 2.0% year-on-year increase from what previously had been estimated at a tiny 0.3% gain.

Despite the relatively poor data, Federal Reserve policymakers are widely expected to pause in hiking U.S. interst rates at their meeting Tuesday.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 8:50:44 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Texas Pacific Group agreed to buy Aleris International Inc. in a deal valued at $1.7 billion in cash, the parties said Tuesday.

"After careful analysis, our board of directors has unanimously endorsed this transaction as being in the best interests of our stockholders," Steven Demetriou, chairman and chief executive of Aleris (ARS), in a statement. Beachwood, Ohio-based Aleris makes aluminum and zinc products.

The deal's expected to be completed early next year. Aleris's announcement followed a Wall Street Journal report that the company had agreed to be bought by Texas Pacific, the private-equity firm that also has agreed to assume or repay $1.6 billion of debt.

Terms call for Aleris stockholders to receive $52.50 for each common share, a premium of nearly 27% to Aleris's Monday closing price of $41.39.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 8:49:19 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures drifted lower early Tuesday as traders marked time ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates expected at 2.15 p.m. Eastern.

Gold for December delivery was last down $4.40 at $655.10 an ounce. The contract closed higher Monday as oil prices rallied on the news of BP Plc's closure of a key Alaskan pipeline. The front-month crude contract came close to its alltime high, reigniting inflation fears and boosting demand for gold.

The action in the metals pits is expected to be subdued in today's session as traders wait to see if the Federal Reserve will take a pause in its interest-rate raising cycle, as the majority of economists are expecting.

"A no change decision from the Fed accompanied by a neutral-leaning statement would likely spur buying of gold and other commodities, though we expect there will be a hawkish tint to the policy statement given ongoing inflation concerns amid high resource utilization rates, elevated commodity prices, and rising wage pressures," said analysts at research firm Action Economics.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 8:47:37 AM

The big story Sunday night was Oil and last night was Gold. This market took a beating and made an overnight low of 652.40 (using Dec ZG).

Oil on the other hand stayed pretty well neutral overnight.

Overnight Nat GAs stayed not only witin its PDR but within its Sunday's overnight range as well. This market looks like it is forming a bottom for another move higher.

TBonds had another boring night and stayed completely with PDR and Sunday overnight range as well. Link

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 8:41:56 AM

The markets were mostly neutral overnight but YM was able to break its PDH whereas both ER and ES found too much resistance at their respective PDHs and were not able to break them. NQ stayed midrange. Link

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 8:37:53 AM

Dateline WSJ - Cablevision Systems Corp. said a review has determined that the date and exercise price assigned to a number of its stock option and stock-appreciation rights, or SAR, grants during the 1997-2002 period didn't correspond to the actual grant date and the closing price of the company's common stock on that day.

The Bethpage, N.Y., company, which operates cable-television systems and owns Madison Square Garden, said it expects to restate previously issued annual and interim financial statements to record adjustments relating to stock option and SAR matters. The company hasn't fully determined the amount of such adjustments or the resulting tax and accounting impacts. The company said management has concluded that the financial statements for all the periods beginning Jan. 1, 1997 shouldn't be relied upon.

Cablevision also said it won't be in a position to file its quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2006 pending completion of the review.

Jane Fox : 8/8/2006 8:34:08 AM

* PRODUCTIVITY UP 2.4% Y-O-Y VS REV 2.7% IN Q1
* Q2 UNIT LABOR COSTS HIGHEST SINCE Q4 2004
* Q2 UNIT LABOR COST UP 4.2% VS 3.5% EXPECTED
* Q1 PRODUCTIVITY REVISED TO UP 4.3% FROM 3.7%
* Q2 PRODUCTIVITY RISES 1.1% VS. 0.9% EXPECTED

Keene Little : 8/8/2006 7:23:43 AM

I had been using ES all day Monday to show how it broke down from its ascending wedge and spent most of the day hanging around just under the uptrend line. Looking at YM we see it dropped below its uptrend line as well and closed Monday right back up against the line. This is a good setup for a short play (assuming it will be a kiss goodbye on the retest). Link

But NQ actually shows some bullish possibilities here. It dipped below its uptrend line briefly on Monday but then recovered by the close. This one bears watching since a drop below its uptrend line would have all 3 indexes breaking their uptrend lines and I'd rather look for shorting opportunities at that point. Link

Of course until FOMC passes there probably won't be many trading opportunities. Then we come back to the potential holding pattern that ES has been in as it consolidates underneath its broken uptrend line. After the drop from Friday's high this consolidation looks like a continuation pattern which suggests a break lower once it's over (post-FOMC?). Its uptrend line is currently at 1285.75 which is the overnight high so far. Link

I will be on the road most of the day and might miss the FOMC announcement. It's often better to trade the following day and let this day pass. There will likely be few trading setups pre-FOMC and then it'll be nuts post-FOMC as everyone gets whipped around. Good luck if you decide to cross in traffic.

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