Option Investor
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Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 1:43:50 AM

Crud ... QCharts' option montage has "rolled" at midnight. I'll take a look at September puts tomorrow and either $36, or $37 strikes.

I'd like to look for a bounce back to DAILY R1 for an entry.

Now .... I'm going to be out of the office from September 1 thru September 11.

Until then, I'm going to be running my MM profiles accordingly. I'll have stop and targets, but when I'm on vacation, I don't like to have STOCK positions open, where I can't control my RISK should something gap against me, or not be around to hedge it with an option.

I'm going to keep MSFT on my "watch list." I still think the stock gets manipulated lower to, or just after the Dutch auction deadline. Maybe that plays into a QQQQ $35. Maybe some pullback in CSCO.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 1:33:00 AM

Marc ... Never quit. I'm not overly happy with BDK and EXPD. I left some money on the table there too. Traders aren't, or shouldn't be trying to "get it all anyway." Put +20 NQ on the board each day and that isn't bad.

One of these days, a bull will "sell too soon" on the NQ as it goes higher and bucks the pattern of giving up quicker than what it took to get to the upside.

The SMH is making some "baby steps" above $31.51. See ... same type of H/S pattern in the SMH, but that "right shoulder" goes too much into the ear. That's the "hunch back" patterns I tend to avoid, or discount. Maybe a hint that its time for bears to leav the semiconductors alone.

Hey! AMAT achieves its bearish vertical count. that the BIG gun in semi-equipment.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 1:29:38 AM

Hitting the sack. There is food for everyone, bear and bull. Let's see what the morning data gives. We are back at that game again.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 1:28:23 AM

In fact, the overnight action is directly tied to oil prices, as we type.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 1:27:22 AM

Long NQ, long oil and let the chips roll...but watch QM 76.125. It loses that, we can get a break.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 1:26:21 AM

Mmm. Don't forget back to school and after so much selling, are we discounting the consumer a little too much? Gas prices is not slowing them down too much, all we need is a break in the bad news oil.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 1:22:43 AM

One thing for sure, I have left two +40 NQ trades on the table in the past week, so I am not happy camper. If it wasn't for an actual positive trend in the SOX, I would quit.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 1:20:57 AM

Hey Marc ... did you catch CNBC tonight? Trader really bullish on Applied Materials (AMAT) Link

I think your 01:13:05 is just about right, and plays into the QQQQ at $35.

CSCO's forward guidance is just what the chips needed for a year-end/early 2007 rally. I'd be VERY SURPRISED if CSCO fills 1/2 of today's gap higher.

But, "hope will fade," and I think the bulls will get washed out on a little undercut of the July lows, which then sets up the big rally into year's end. NASDAQ internals look like they want to soften one more time.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 1:14:37 AM

Now ... here's my QQQQ 60-minute interval chart, but this time with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 1:13:05 AM

I will say that if we can't get SMH and COMP above that 50 dma soon, hope willl fade. But a pc ratio of 4.38 at QQQQ 36 makes the breakdown scenario a little implausible at this point.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 1:08:33 AM

Very true Jeff. But I also have a potential inverted H&S on the COMP daily. It's not as clean as that 60 mn Q, but if semis hold up, it will flip the picture: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 1:05:27 AM

Check this out Marc .... Here's my QQQQ 60-minute interval chart with just the pattern retracement Link ... Now look at tomorrow's QQQQ DAILY Pivot Levels, and MONTHLY Pivot.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 1:04:17 AM

My stop is at 1486 for that very reason. Right now, though, I stick to a bullish SOX. If that changes, fine, I;'m out and short. But I have learned not to bet against semis exhibiting relative strength.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 1:04:22 AM

Jeff, it could very well be if we lose NQ 1483, which would confirm the neckline.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 1:04:27 AM

SMH, watch that 50 dma (31.87) going forward. We broke out above May descending trendline 7 days ago and have barley looked back as we form an ascending channel, but we need a close very soon above 31.75. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 12:56:31 AM

Marc ... does the 60-minute interval chart of the QQQQ look like a h/s top pattern? Downside objective $34.87?

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 12:51:02 AM

The key will be for volatility sellers to win it this time around. Opex next week will be a very important event, no doubt.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 12:52:45 AM

Cyclicals were sold (DOW), but look at how the SOX held up. I still put forth the rotation into techs theory. They were the dogs on the last hike, they will be the winners on easing, if that perception builds. I would also nibble at small caps, they are being hit harder here on that dissenting Fed voice, but the SOX is telling us something.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 12:51:53 AM

Keene, just saw your post. Yes, and add that 61.8% fib to that candle (see my last post). All bets are off below 1486.25, but this action still feels supportive. If they were going to drive it to new lows, we would have sunk like dead weight all the way into the close. Keep in mind that many expected a post fed sell-off of any rally, so traders obliged, or got weak in the knees with their longs. That does not mean it will have legs. CSCO was clear: IT spending is alive and well and that should help stocks like INTC and their high-end server sales. The new chips are hot (actually they run very cool and efficiently) and enterprise wants them.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 12:30:53 AM

Great note Keene (11:10:00 PM) ... same thing for DIA/YM.

When that happens, it can be a hint that those indexes are in a range, and not necessarily in a trend.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 12:29:43 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1489, lower stop to 1486 for now.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 12:29:03 AM

60 mn NQ , with 61.8% support at 1488.75. Lower bbands as well. I will move the stop down a hair. There should be upside resolution to all this volatility. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 12:02:11 AM

Index Pivot Matrix for Thursday at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 11:32:46 PM

Tab! None of my NASDAQ market breadth charts (10:07:09 PM EDT) are saying "buy" at this point. What about yours? (10:19:38 PM EDT)

Must not forget $BPCOMPQ Link


Keene Little : 8/9/2006 11:10:00 PM

My ES chart is beginning to get crowded with trend lines as I try to figure out what's playing out here. Support was found at an interesting level though--two equal legs down from Aug 4th is at 1268.75 and it hit 1268.25 late Wednesday. That's also where the bottom of a parallel down-channel for price action since last Friday is located and it's the bottom of a potential parallel up-channel for price action since July 18th. So it could be a bull flag within an up channel. It's a good spot to try a long play since you can keep your stop tight. Link

I had mentioned early Wednesday that the techs actually are giving some bullish signals. Even though NQ gave it all up today, I still see bullish potential in this one. A retest of its broken downtrend line from last Friday held today, as did the bottom of a potential parallel up-channel for price action since July 18th. As seen on the 60-min chart, NQ left a bullish hammer (actually a more bullish dragonfly doji) at support. Obviously this needs to rally tomorrow in order to keep this bullish picture alive. Try buying it with a tight stop. Link

Keene Little : 8/9/2006 10:42:22 PM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Tab Gilles : 8/9/2006 10:19:38 PM

Several market breadth charts Link Link Link Link Link Link

Tab Gilles : 8/9/2006 10:06:05 PM

Valero (VLO) Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 10:07:09 PM

$NASI and the 10-point box size PnF Link

My proprietary NASDAQ NH/NL ratio chart from 07:13:54 post at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 8/9/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 9:46:12 PM

James Cramer is "averaging down" and buying more Black & Decker (BDK) $66.14 -3.06% Link

May the force be with him at its PnF chart bearish vertical count of $67!

Tab Gilles : 8/9/2006 9:16:04 PM

$NASI reversed today, might be just a one day reading. However, I'm seeing same choppiness here as when the market was topping several month ago. Link Link Link That said- market is oversold, and yes could stay or become more oversold. But the downside versus upside favors being long now.

Listening to Fast Money on CNBC...they had on the CEO of BP and Pit Trader Bolling asked if BP would declare Force Majeure . CEO wouldn't comment....hmmmm????

The guys all commented that oil is going higher and if BP does use Force majeure and not deliver, oil will spike much, much higher.

Murphy Oil Long @ $51/stop $47/PO $58 Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 8:09:28 PM

A special "thank you" to the EIA for including answers to some of my questions and observations in their "This Week In Petroleum" Link

Here's a data table I keep for various Distillate products Link

The EIA article addresses the notable build in the 0-15 ppm Sulfer. The EIA also addresses the problems the new EPA standards have as it relates to moving the ULSD through pipelines that have transported high sulfer products.

The Year Ago changes that I tabulate for the 0-15 ppm Sulfer are "flawed" in my opinion as it would relate to measuring apples to apples.

It would have to me my analysis of the data that on an apples to apples basis, ULSD stockpiles are actually LOWER than "Old Diesel" stockpiles.

Editorial: Did the EPA think about any of this stuff? Or did they think refiners and transporters had a "magic wand" and unlimited storage tanks and pipelines to move ULSD?

Yep... the old "magic wand."

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 7:14:43 PM

AIG $58.49 -1.99% .... last tick in extended has been $58.23

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 7:14:32 PM

September Crude (cl06u) settled up 4 cents at $76.35. Floor trade high was $77.45 for the second-straight session.

Really thought this morning's gap up open on PTR and then move above $108.00 in OXY would bring in the momentum bulls for oil.

BP said late this afternoon that it will make some type of decision on Prudhoe Bay production by Friday afternoon.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 7:14:01 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Today's Activity

Stopped out on the Miscrosoft (MSFT) full position short at $24.60 ($-0.18/share, or -0.74%)

Swing traded roughly 3/4 position with one (1) of the Deere, CO DE Sep $75 Puts (DE-UO) at the offer of $5.30. Stop currently $76 in the underlying, targeting $65 in the underlying.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 7:13:54 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link ... New Lows building again at the NASDAQ. We shouldn't be looking for an expansion of NH for this MARKET, where PRICE has been setting new 52-week lows, but monitoring the number of NLs. Is the tail of the inchworm able to anchor itself? Dig in? Gain any traction?

Here's an updated NASDAQ NH/NL ratio chart with "f"ive-day and 10-day (X, O) Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 7:13:41 PM

Parallel Petroleum (PLLL) Announces Daily Production For Q2

Co announces net daily production for the second qtr ended June 30, 2006 averaged 6,432 equivalent barrels of oil (BOE) per day, an increase of 75% when compared to an average of 3,681 BOE per day during the second qtr ended June 30, 2005, and an increase of 25% when compared to an average of 5,146 BOE per day during the first qtr ended March 31, 2006. Since its May 10, 2006 operations update press release, the co has completed an additional 22 gross wells for the aggregate of initial daily test rates of approximately 2,689 BOE per day, net to Parallel. Due to the unstable nature of initial test data, and the natural decline rates associated with the co's second qtr base production, mgmt cautions investors not to combine initial test data with actual quarterly production for the purpose of estimating the co's current net daily production or place undue reliance on this production data.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 5:00:25 PM

AIG alert $57.51

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 4:54:47 PM

Well, NQ got a higher low and higher high in all this, with only a 3 point higher close. Half-full, half-empty, take your pick.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 4:59:23 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Strange But True ... I continue to place an al_rt at 14.10 on the VIX.X, just above my 14.00 "waterline." I watched and watched VIX trade 14.07 and had typed in a "VIX 14.00 Alert" with SPY $128.55. Never could quite trade there at 14.00, gave up at 12:27:46 MM post with VIX 14.21

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 4:46:49 PM

YM 11,118

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 4:46:12 PM

AIG $58.49 -1.99% .... $59.20 extended. Volume very light in extended.

Post earnings low/high has been $57.61/$59.69

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 4:43:47 PM

These earnings are getting more and more difficult to trade on "headlines."

Don't want trader's to get "Cisco'd" on what some thought were flat earnings.

One-time charges, hedges (taxable?) etc., etc.,

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 4:33:36 PM

AIG alert $59.65

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 4:32:55 PM

AIG $58.49 -1.99% .... $59.20 extended ... realy choppy

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 4:32:24 PM

YM 11,117

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 4:32:04 PM

AIG Earnings Press Release at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 4:30:35 PM

Easy ... easy .... AIG $59.42 to $57.61 in extended

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 4:29:46 PM

AIG Q2 EPS $1.21

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 4:29:39 PM

Bonds are starting to price in a hike in September, no other explanation, unless this is just profit taking. Lots of data and oil price gyrations before the next meeting so I am not going to be that hawkish. I still think we close the year below 5%. Just get rid of the Richmond guy. Probably an old left wing demagogue.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 4:28:29 PM

AIG alert darts lower to $58.00

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 4:27:08 PM

AIG's WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... $58.96, $59.55, Piv= $60.26, $60.85, $61.57

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 4:27:07 PM

ER was definitely a loser. I think that will reverse once NQ gets going.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 4:25:02 PM

Is anyone else getting intermittent pauses in Qcharts feed?

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 4:22:48 PM

Not so bad. NVDA calls are at 7.90. 7.4 was a good exit.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 4:21:48 PM

I don;t even want to look at the Jan 17.5 NVDA options. We exited at 7.4 for 110% profit, but the stock is up another 2 points since. Take profits fast in some, but not in this one. Although now, I would be out. Earnings due tomorrow.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 4:19:51 PM

INTC, MSFT, TXN, CSCO did well. GOOG and AAPL not as well, much higher p/e stocks so they are punishing the ones that have not become cheap enough.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 4:21:52 PM

American Intl. Group (AIG) $58.49 -1.99% Link ... awaiting key earnings any minute now.

Consensus is $1.39

#10 heavyweight for DIA/INDU/YM

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 4:17:05 PM

I thought I was not going to do any recaps today. Wrong.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 4:16:40 PM

Trade Recap
Day: NQ +6
Week: NQ +13

Open position: Long NQ 1489, stop 1491.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 4:15:08 PM

Got it, we are at 20 dma.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 4:14:56 PM

+6 partial.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 4:14:47 PM

Lats 10 mns is seeing a bounce. We need 1495.50.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 4:14:29 PM

Nothing is in sync. SOX is green, oil is higher even though everyone is selling stocks on a slower economy. Someting has to give.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 4:14:03 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPY $126.89

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 4:12:57 PM

Economic Reports for tomorrow include:

8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims For August 5 Wk.

8:30a.m. June Trade Deficit. Previous: $63.84 Bln.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 4:10:32 PM

Below 76.125, I am out of oil.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 4:11:20 PM

Your hedge going forward should be oil. The top of that ascending wedge is a tad above 80, so there is upside room for oil, if it holds 76.125, 50% previous rally.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 4:06:44 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1489, raise stop to 1491.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 4:06:19 PM

Moral of the story: stay with techs.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 4:03:35 PM

Obviously, the TOL numbers today scared some big players at the close, but NQ still doing better, although what a fall from highs.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 4:02:19 PM

AMD down 1.5%. I knew that stock was garbage.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 4:01:41 PM

GOOG tok a hit, but MSFT and INTC still ahead. CSCO is a winner.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 4:00:17 PM

And here they come, covering. Makes you just want to buy January leaps and go do something else.

Keene Little : 8/9/2006 4:01:13 PM

It's a pretty strange short term pattern (the past week) but ES is dropping to the point where it will have two equal legs down from the Aug 4 high (at 1268.75) at the same place where a parallel line could be marking the bottom of a larger up-channel. That's all speculation at this point but I'm not ready to declare a victory for the bears. I think this is all part of a larger choppy upward move and based on that you might think about a small long position here or at least protect profits on a short position. Link

Tab Gilles : 8/9/2006 4:03:12 PM

Three stocks to look at that are biotechs all up today.

Avalon Pharma (AVRX)Avalon Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery and development of small molecule therapeutics for the treatment of cancer in the United States. Link

Emisphere Tech (EMIS)Emisphere Technologies, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, specializes in the oral delivery of therapeutic macromolecules and other compounds. It develops products using eligen, a proprietary oral drug delivery technology, based on the use of synthetic chemical compounds, known as EMISPHERE delivery agents. These delivery agents transport therapeutic macromolecules and small molecules. Link

CV Therapeutic (CVTX) CV Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of small molecule drugs for the treatment of cardiovascular diseases. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 3:58:54 PM

QQQQ 20 dma is 36.50 and a close above keeps bulls alive. What a pain this market is. So many hedge funds out there, you can't even hold a trade long or short more than a day.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 3:58:09 PM

LU $2.10 +2.43% ... looks "expensive"

NT $1.97 -1.99% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 3:57:19 PM

Why did I not wait for opex to move my stop up. Why. 1483 was safe.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 3:56:55 PM

Techs is still the place to be if you want stocks, other than energy and gold.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 3:56:14 PM

Let's get it back above 1495.50.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 3:56:05 PM

CHICAGO, IL, August 9, 2006 - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT.) today announced that its Federal Fund futures contract set a record on Tuesday as volume surged to 286,935 contracts. The previous high mark, 262,840 contracts, was set on August 4, 2006.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 3:55:33 PM



Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 3:55:21 PM

NASDAQ-100 Heatmap Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 3:55:19 PM

NQ still the percentage winner.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 3:54:06 PM

Buying it just above weekly S1 and 61.8%. SOX is still green.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 3:53:32 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1489, stop 1485.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 3:52:51 PM

Not much time left.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 3:52:20 PM

1488 is next support.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 3:52:12 PM

SOX up .71%

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 3:51:57 PM

Big disapointment for bulls. SOX is the saving grace, which is why this is all so weird.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 3:51:57 PM

QQQQ $36.48 (unch) ...

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 3:49:47 PM

SMH at 10 dma.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 3:49:44 PM

This afternoon has been great because the internals are telling me to just stay short. I love it when things are in sync.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 3:49:08 PM

Now of course, they will bunce it.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 3:48:58 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 3:48:49 PM

I have to remmeber to take +40 off when it happens. Second time this occurs in a week. Left +80 on the table.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 3:48:15 PM

Expeditors Intl. (EXPD) alert $38.00 -3.70% ... this was my initial bearish target.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 3:48:10 PM

what is going on with Qcharts?

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 3:47:05 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $24.40 +0.25% ... tests morning lows.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 3:46:15 PM

Hezbollah Chief: Ability To Fire Rockets Strong As Ever

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 3:45:41 PM

non-margin plays now

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 3:45:15 PM

This is enough to make anyone throw in the towel, which is what happened. But the day is not over.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 3:43:32 PM

That candle just looks to weird.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 3:43:00 PM

NWX.X +2.09%

XCI.X +1.21%

INX.X +0.97%

SMH +0.48%

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 3:42:43 PM

We should get some buying in the final 10 mns.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 3:41:20 PM

BP's Malone: To Decide On Partial Prudhoe Bay Field Reopen This Weekend

Have Shut Down Field Before Major Problem

Didn't Anticipate Nature Of Pipeline Problem

Keene Little : 8/9/2006 3:40:51 PM

Not even the techs could hold this market up. Should have known that without the big caps it was not a healthy sign for the broader market. YM's pattern is now looking downright bearish. A Fib projection of 11042 could be the next stop.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 3:38:36 PM

(in techs)

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 3:38:21 PM

SMH still percentage leader.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 3:36:28 PM

Updated NQ 30 mn: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 3:35:48 PM

No one said it was easy.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 3:34:01 PM

TRINNQ still bullish at .41.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 3:33:35 PM

Should have just left the stop at 1483.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 3:32:55 PM

20 dma is 1495.50, we need it back at the close.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 3:33:47 PM

Deere Co. (DE) alert $70.20 -2.86% (see chart @ 02:46:06)

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 3:32:40 PM

There is nothing I can see that is telling me this selling is coming to an end.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 3:32:21 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1495, stop 1491.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 3:31:18 PM

My stop was not wide enough, gap is closed I will re-enter.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 3:30:58 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 3:28:50 PM

There goes ES's support.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 3:25:55 PM

So far ES's PDL has held up as support. IF we lose that support the next will be NQ's PDL at 1481.75

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 3:23:39 PM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) alert 378.95 -1.22%

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 3:23:36 PM

NQ just filled this morning's gap.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 3:21:03 PM

SPY $127.089 -0.25% ... probes its still rising 200-day SMA

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 3:15:52 PM

BA's August "Max Pain" theory $80.00 ($5 increments)

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 3:15:35 PM

ES's low so far today is 1272.50 and this may be all the bears get for the day.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 3:14:43 PM

Boeing (BA) alert $76.96 -1.13% Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 3:13:35 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 8/9/2006 3:11:56 PM

I just noticed YM has dropped down to the bottom of a parallel down-channel drawn from last Friday's high, right here at 11130. Could be a good spot to try a long play even though that looks a little risky here.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 3:05:55 PM

If NQ's MACD crosses it will be a cross below the 0 line.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 3:04:16 PM

MACD has crossed on the daily ES, YM and ER charts.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 3:03:55 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 3:01:26 PM

Expect ES drop to at least pause at 1272 - PDL

Keene Little : 8/9/2006 3:01:03 PM

The little 5-wave move down from the high at 11:30 has not been followed by a bounce but more of a sideways consolidation instead. The result should be the same though--we should get another leg down. How that plays out in the larger pattern of the past week has me a bit stymied at the moment so just looking at this one leg at a time until the bigger pattern becomes clearer.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 3:00:00 PM

Both AD line and volume are now below 0. Amazing day!!!

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 2:59:12 PM

Huge selloff in Oil and Nat Gas. Oil hit a high of 77.425 and is now at 76.15.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 2:54:43 PM

Here is an update of the NQ bear flag on a 240 minute chart. Link

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 2:53:26 PM

YM loses its 50EMA but remember we need a close below not just a trade below so the bulls still have control. Link

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 2:52:02 PM

ES's 50EMA is still in tact. A close below this MA is very bearish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 2:51:45 PM

Ultra Small-Cap Pro Fund (UAPIX) went out at $25.26 -2.39% yesterday.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 2:50:37 PM

ES's PDL is 1272 currently at 1276.50

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 2:49:30 PM

Both ER and YM break PDLs.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 2:49:07 PM

Both AD line and volume to new daily lows but yet are still both above 0. However I don't think for long.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 2:48:27 PM

Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 686.10 -0.19% ... edges under yesterday's lows.

Tab Gilles : 8/9/2006 2:46:55 PM

Weekly EIA Report Link

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 2:46:54 PM

VIx is now supporting the new daily lows.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 2:46:06 PM

Deere Co (DE) $70.91 -1.84% ... O gets the square. Here's a relative low/high retracement at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 2:45:49 PM

Opps TICKS -1000 yes Virginia that is a minus sign.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 2:42:16 PM

So far Jeff CAT is pretty neutral - not bullish or bearish. As a matter of fact it is about as neutral as it can get! Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 2:42:02 PM

Looks like the 52-week low buyers still not interested in BDK $66.35 -2.75%

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 2:40:59 PM

Was going to short/put the XLY, but can't fade Tab's bullishness.

CMCSA is strong too.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 2:39:24 PM

Need CAT $69.45 -3.00% Link and "best of breed" to generate the bearish triangle pattern Jane. Be bulldozer to send DE into the RED!

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 2:28:46 PM

Markets consolidating at daily lows is never bullish. New daily lows?

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 2:24:13 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Some members of U.S. Congress are calling for hearings on the problems leading to BP PLC (BP) shutting down output from its Alaska oil operations due to a corroded pipeline, The Los Angeles Times reported Wednesday.

The newspaper said the lawmakers demanded to know whether BP, which recently posted $7.3 billion in second-quarter profit, neglected to invest in upkeep of its infrastructure. It said they are outraged by the interruption of a major source of U.S. crude and pushing for tighter regulation of the nation's pipelines.

The L.A. Times quoted Scott Dean, a BP spokesman, acknowledging the shortcomings in the company's inspection program.

"Clearly, our inspection program wasn't good enough," he said. "We'd like to apologize." BP staff was also making apologies during calls to Capitol Hill.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 2:21:51 PM

Oh Jeff I like that DE play. Chart is nicely bearish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 2:21:35 PM

SMH alert ... $31.51

QQQQ $36.93

INTC $17.63

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 2:20:44 PM

For Deere, Co (DE) Link ... let's use a stop at $76, target $65 in the underlying.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 2:19:29 PM

Based on the price action itself and not the internals there is very good chance that PDLs will not hold today.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 2:17:29 PM

Swing trade long put alert ... for one (1) of the Deere Company DE Sep $75 Puts (DE-UO) at the offer of $5.30

DE $71.15 -1.52%

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 2:15:26 PM

There goes NQ support.

Tab Gilles : 8/9/2006 2:11:23 PM

XLY is in a trading range $31 to $35. Looked at it once back on 6/28 5:05 PM posting. Link Seemed attractive relative to $BPDISC low reading. Link Top stocks in XLY are HD, TWX, CMCSA and DIS that just reported outstanding eps. Link Concentrating now mostly on Energy and Profund recos.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 2:08:32 PM

DIA ... August "max pain" $111.00 ($1 increments)

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 2:07:45 PM

SPY ... August "max pain" $127.00 ($1 increments)

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 2:07:04 PM

SMH ... August "max pain" $30.00 ($2.50 increments)

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 2:04:52 PM

So far NQ has found support at its PDH.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 2:01:21 PM

OXY ... August "max pain" $95 ($5 increments)

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 2:00:35 PM

ICE ... August "max pain" $60.00 ($5 increments)

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 1:59:37 PM

AMGN's August "max pain" $67.50 ($2.50 increments)

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 1:58:37 PM

MSFT's August "max pain" $22.50 ($2.50 increments)

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 1:57:54 PM

INTC's August "max pain" $17.50 ($2.50 increments)

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 1:57:07 PM

Prior to today's trade ... CSCO's August "max pain" theory was $17.50 ($2.50 increments)

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 1:54:48 PM

Tab! You still long the XLY $31.85 -0.62% Link

or providing updates?

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 1:49:03 PM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 4,193.70 -2.19% ... edge to new session lows.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 1:41:21 PM

After that, we get a clear run to 39 into Labor day. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 1:39:15 PM

Opex will pin QQQQ around 37.50. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 1:37:53 PM

Regional May07 Housing Futures at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 1:34:49 PM

Now that Gold has broken its triangle I turn my attention to the 668 swing high, which it has not yet broken. Link

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 1:31:07 PM

If only I had kept my Nat Gas long Sigh!! Link

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 1:30:00 PM

Oil is now testing its PDH at 77.425.

Tab Gilles : 8/9/2006 1:29:54 PM

Top stocks in Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) Link (Disclosure, personally own INTC & QCOM)

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 1:28:43 PM

Jeff but isn't the weirdness today a little early.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 1:27:22 PM

Did you notice in my last post that NQ was testing its PDH which should be support???

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 1:26:55 PM

Don't forget Jane .... Option Expiration next week.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 1:26:31 PM

Sheesh when I said ES's PDH would be resistance I didn't think this much resistance! Link

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 1:24:18 PM

Here is a 240 minute look at the bear flag I have shown on the daily chart. NQ bulls were strong enough to regain 1/2 way point on this flag but seem to have lost steam and I suspect the bottom trendline will break again. Link

Tab Gilles : 8/9/2006 1:23:49 PM

Depends what index Marc? Back in '04 there was no correction for the NDX in Oct. It too bottomed in July/August and rallied into '05. May or may not this time. Link We'll know when market breadth indicators become overbought. But for now they're indicating oversold.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 1:20:17 PM

I totally give up trying to read this market today. The way the bears have been able to bring the bulls to their knees has been the hallmark of this market for a while now but the internals as strong as they are is totally confusing.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 1:18:57 PM

On gap penetration, NQ should find support at 1503 or so.

Keene Little : 8/9/2006 1:18:12 PM

ES is showing a nice little 5-wave move down from the high at 11:30. That means we should be due another bounce but at this point it's looking like the gap should get closed later today.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 1:17:30 PM

I know quite a few real-estate honchos that have been rotating thier millions into technology stocks on weakness.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 1:18:12 PM

I am in the camp that the lows have been put in for the year, especially COMP/NDX/QQQQ. Everyone banking on an October correction with new lows (just about every technician I know) is going to get a suprise.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 1:15:53 PM

NASDAQ 5-day NH/NL ratio would reversed 3-boxes lower on a closing reading of 34.00 or less.

Tab Gilles : 8/9/2006 1:15:36 PM

$SPX Still w/i uptrend channel and bouncing off 70-wema. Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 1:14:46 PM

SPX NH/NL currently 16:8

Yesterday's tally 15:13

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 1:14:14 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 1:09:09 PM

AD volume is once again turning up and almost to new daily highs. Oh my head hurts!

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 1:07:37 PM

I follow Bob Brinker and think he is about the best market timer out there (and so does the Hulbert Financial Digest). I just got this Brinker quote from a friend. "The most likely scenario is that a short-term correction could pave the way to the 2006 mid-term off-presidential election year buying opportunity". They regard "any weakness below the 1250 level on the S&P 500 index as a buying opportunity for subscribers."

So I may have to rethink my bearishness.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 1:04:30 PM

ES tests it daily lows but the VIX is still not anywhere near its daily highs. For any one of you who have followed my posts on the VIX you have seen how these two are usually joined at the hip and to see this divergence leads me to remain bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 1:03:34 PM

For now Keene ... for now

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 1:03:08 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 8/9/2006 1:02:36 PM

This is certainly a switch from what we've been typically seeing this year--YM is in the red while the techs are strongly in the green. All the big caps bailing? I'm not sure that's healthy for the market or what it means for us short term but at this point if you're feeling bullish you know which one to buy.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 1:01:53 PM

This has been the weirdest day!

Tab Gilles : 8/9/2006 1:00:25 PM

Since, mentioning these metal stocks about 6 weeks ago, on 6/23 1:00 PM post, they are up significantly. $GOLD +10%, GLD +12.5%; $SILVER +18.5%, SLV +21.5%; RIO +6.8%. Link

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 12:57:48 PM

NQ has retraced 61.80% of its daily range. ES 100%. YM 127.20% (new daily lows). ER just past its 61.80%. So our strongest market NQ has made a retracement that should be making bulls very worried.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 12:55:02 PM

And these have turned AGAIN! Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 12:54:38 PM

Stepping away.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 12:53:50 PM

ES test daily lows and the VIX says it will hold. Mind you though you have consider the VIX and ES have not had a good day today so I would not be betting the house on it.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 12:53:00 PM

Oil is becoming a problem. If I was not long from 1483, I would book it now, but I think we will weather this patch and break out above 1525 this week. If 1510.50 falls, we should hit 1503/1505, although R1 at 1507 is an entry.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 12:50:52 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) alert $111.82 -0.01% ... slip red

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 12:49:38 PM

Financial softening up

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 12:47:09 PM

Updated NQ 30 mn: Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 12:37:07 PM

Amex Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 348.54 +3.38% ... just under WEEKLY R1 here.

In my opinion, this needs to hold resistance for the StreetTracks Gold (GLD) short play.

That is... if it is true that the commodity follows equity (stocks)

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 12:44:45 PM

NQ 30 mn with fibs. As you can see, 1517 is clear support (61.8%) followed by 1510.50. The gap below is pretty sizeable, but I think the early minor penetration might have been it. We will see. OIl is a problem, so watch 1510/1512 area. If that breaks, second gap entry is likely, but OI doubt we will get a gap close at 1492. Bulls will hold on to 1498.50. Link

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 12:27:51 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude prices rallied Wednesday after supply data showing an unexpectedly large drawdown in gasoline inventories, in a market that is still trying to assess the impact on supplies of BP's decision to shut down a pipeline transporting crude out of the nation's largest oil field.

Crude for September delivery was up 94 cents at $77.25 a barrel. Gasoline futures turned higher, up 0.17 cent at $2.228 a gallon.

Gasoline supplies fell by 3.2 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 4, the Department of Energy reported. It was the third straight weekly decline, and was much larger than the estimated range of a drop between 400,000 and 850,000 barrels.

"The villain once again is strong apparent demand for gasoline," said Rakesh Shankar, economist at Moody's Economy.com. "This remains as puzzling as ever, given the recent uptick in gasoline prices. Gasoline demand apparently rose 1.8% for the week ending August 4." Shankar said recent reports, including monthly real consumer spending data, have been showing a sharp and steady decline in consumer spending on gasoline

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 12:27:46 PM

VIX 14.21 -6.69% ... came darned close to 14.00 ... session low tick has been 14.07

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 12:26:50 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The number of loan applications for mortgages rebounded last week from a four-year low set the previous week, as mortgage rates declined, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday.

Mortgage applications rose 4.9% in the week ended Aug. 4 compared to the prior week.

Despite the increase, mortgage applications are down 24.9% in the past year, reflecting a slowdown in the nation's housing market.

In a sign of weakness in the luxury-home segment, Toll Brothers Inc. said earlier Wednesday that the value of signed contracts fell 45% in the third quarter.

Applications for loans to purchase a home rose 3.4% in the latest week, the MBA's survey data showed.

The volume of applications for refinancing loans rose by 7.1%.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 12:23:10 PM

TRINNQ is confirming NAZ bullishness, but TRIN is somewhat neutral. If NQ weekly pivot at 1512 holds up, weekly S1 and 50 dma are looming at 1542. Keep an eye on 1510/1512. Either we get another failure or this time we actually get to visit the 50 dma for the first time in months.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 12:22:23 PM

ICE Option Montage from 08/04/06 12:14:28 MM analysis at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 12:19:15 PM

NASDAQ target 2350? Link

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 12:19:13 PM

Adding to the confusion of some markets much more bullish than others is the MACDs. ER's MACD is showing a bullish divergence but NQ's and ES's are giving a bearish divergence. YM's on the other hand is following price. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 12:18:03 PM

ICE Option Montage as ICE moves "in the money" on the $60 calls Link ... Bullish implications should ICE trade $62.00 Link ... 1/2 position only below trend.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 12:10:08 PM

That's not a "bad idea" ... just saw some retail action in the ICE Aug $55 Calls for $5.60.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 12:07:58 PM

Decent sell bias action in the ICE Aug $60 Puts as ICE $60.32 +1.03% creeps above the $60 call OI.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 12:01:24 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $24.59 +1.02% ... session high has been .... $24.62.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 12:00:52 PM

QQQQ $37.22 +2.02% ... edges back to MONTHLY Pivot/DAILY R2 correlation.

Keene Little : 8/9/2006 11:59:45 AM

The techs are smokin' today and everyone else, even small caps, are laggards. I'm not sure what that means since it's usually better to have everyone in synch. ES is still battling resistance at that 1288 level. ES and YM make me want to be short and NQ makes me want to be long. How about a hedge play? Short ES or YM and long NQ and may the best index win.

Tab Gilles : 8/9/2006 11:56:57 AM

The news from Cisco is certainly helping the NDX. Link

Profund Ultra OTC fund Link

Profund Ultra Small Cap Fund (UAPIX) Link

Murphy Oil (MUR) Entered $51 as per 8/8 11:59 AM post yesterday. Stop $47/ PO $58. Link

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 11:51:54 AM

INTC is also building a nice little wedge here. If it breaks this wedge I will have to exit stage left. I am short INTC. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 11:51:39 AM

CSCO $19.84 +14.74% ... edges above BLUE #2 (5-MRT)

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 11:46:24 AM

My typing is deteriorating as the day progresses.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 11:45:37 AM

ES tests its PDh and pauses.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 11:45:54 AM

TICKS +1000 but I would not be taking fades now. The internals are just too strong.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 11:42:44 AM

ES's PDH is 1287.75 so it should find resistance there once it breaks its daily highs at 1286.75.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 11:39:45 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1483, raise stop to 1493, lock in +10.

Trade is currently up almost 40 points, take some off if in multiples, but the stop is right below 20 dma and that should hold. Target is 1542, 50 dma and weekly R1.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 11:34:43 AM

ES's daily highs are 1286.75 - ES now at 1285.50

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 11:34:37 AM

Occidental Petroleum (OXY) $107.78

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 11:33:27 AM

Occidental Petroleum (OXY) $107.69 +2.15% ... edges above yesterday's highs.

OXY has NEVER been able to close above $107.78.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 11:31:00 AM

10-year ($TNX.X) up 2.2 bp at 4.945%

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 11:30:29 AM

Ryland Group (RYL) $40.80 -4.82% ... after kiss of WEEKLY R1 ($40.23)

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 11:29:41 AM

Toll Brother (TOL) $25.40 -4.43% ... comes back to test WEEKLY S1 ($25.36).

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 11:26:43 AM

BTW Gold (using ZG) is now peeking above the neutral triangle I showed earlier. I would need this market to trade above 668 before I say the triangle has confirmed bullish.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 11:25:07 AM

NQ is the only market so far that is making new daily highs. Is it strong enough to pull the other three up? The internals say yes.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 11:24:50 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 11:23:04 AM

NQ is certainly our strongest market today. Link

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 11:19:12 AM

These two are back in sync. Link

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 11:17:58 AM

Ok here I go again but I think daily highs are in jeopardy here.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 11:16:41 AM

It has been a long time since these two have been so out of sync but it is keeping me on the long side today. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/9/2006 11:12:37 AM

The rotation into technology is gathering steam. It is the sector to place your bets going forward.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 11:12:25 AM

Swing trade short stop alert for the 1/2 position in Microsoft (MSFT) $24.60 +1.09% ...

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 11:11:47 AM

I surely don't know what all the selling we saw earlier was due to but I think it may be over now. I wonder if those gaps just needed to be filled, at least a little, before the bulls were able to get this market back.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 11:03:31 AM

Based on the VIX and the AD volume I am still bullish on this market today.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 11:02:20 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 8/9/2006 11:01:12 AM

This is a choppy mess and it makes it very difficult to get a bead on direction. ES and YM are leaving me hanging and I'm waiting for some more clues. Sticking with NQ for now, since it at least was giving me some bullish signals, I want to see it hold above 1502 at this point. That's where it would test both its broken downtrend line (from last Friday) as well as its uptrend line from July 21st (which it broke below yesterday but gapped back above this morning). To keep it simple I'd say you want to be long above 1500 and short below 1500. Link

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 11:01:10 AM

TICKS fades may work today. I have my TICK alert set at +1000 so I didn't "hear" this one. Link

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 10:59:54 AM

Dateline WSJ Alert - Federal prosecutors levied criminal charges related to stock-option manipulation against three former executives of Comverse Technology Inc., including the company's co-founder and longtime chief executive officer.

The three men -- former CEO Kobi Alexander, former finance chief David Kreinberg and former senior general counsel William Sorin -- resigned from their posts in May following revelations of improbable option-grant dates that suggested the grants had been manipulated to confer extra profit to executives.

The criminal actions mark the second time in recent weeks that prosecutors have reached high into the executive suite to charge offenses related to stock-option manipulation. Last month, prosecutors in San Francisco charged two former executives of Brocade Communications Systems Inc., including ex-CEO Gregory Reyes, with participation in a scheme to backdate employee stock options to make them more valuable. Federal authorities are probing more than 80 companies in a widespread investigation.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 10:57:51 AM

Would be al_rt to weakness in refiners based on Capacity data ... However, the draw in gasoline was much greater than many traders were looking for.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 10:57:36 AM

Look at this wonderful wedge Gold has been in since July 24th. I suspect it will break to the upside and you just may want to position yourself for that break. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 10:56:55 AM

Sunoco (SUN) $78.93 +0.22% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 10:55:17 AM

EIA Weekly Gross Inputs, Refinery Operable Capacity, Pct. Utilization of Ref. Op. Capacity Table found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 10:50:18 AM

Valero Energy (VLO) $67.43 +0.82% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 10:49:46 AM

Operable Capacity (alert) up by 5,000 barrels per day.

Utilization up 0.80 to 91.63

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 10:46:51 AM

ES has closed 50% of its cash market gap.
YM has closed almost 100% of its cash market gap.
NQ has closed 38.2% of its cash market gap.
ER has closed 100% of its cash market gap.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 10:46:30 AM

EIA Weekly Crude Oil, Gasoline, Distillate, Diesel, Jet Fuel Inventory Table found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 10:43:05 AM

TICK range so far is +889 to -492, about as neutral as you can get.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 10:42:12 AM

There is something going on today that does not make sense!

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 10:41:37 AM

AD line has now fallen to +481. Whoa!

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 10:40:47 AM

The VIX is NOT confirming this bearishness and that should worry the bears a great deal. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 10:38:31 AM

MSFT $24.56 ... after trade at WEEKLY R1 ($24.57)

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 10:35:44 AM

$77.50 is "key" for crude.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 10:35:25 AM

TRIN climbs while VIX falls. I hate it when this happens!

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 10:35:01 AM

AD line continues to fall while the AD volume climbs. I hate it when this happens.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 10:34:51 AM

Occidental Pet. (OXY) $106.22 +0.75% ... traded $106.60 on the knee-jerk headline. WEEKLY Pivot just above at $106.72

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 10:33:04 AM

EIA Distillate Inventories down 0.2 million barrels

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 10:32:41 AM

EIA Gasoline Inventories down 3.2 million barrels

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 10:31:54 AM

EIA Crude Oil Inventories down 1.1 million barrels

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 10:29:33 AM


DJ- Furthering its strategy of building an international vertically integrated residential-mortgage business, Morgan Stanley agrees to pay $14.10 a share, or $706 million, for Saxon Capital. Offer represents a 29% premium to yesterday's close.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 10:28:27 AM

EIA inventory data due out in a couple of minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 10:27:46 AM

MSFT might not get their Dutch auction bid range ($22.50-$24.75)

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 10:26:07 AM

Microsoft (MSFT) $24.55 +0.86% ... highs for the month.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 10:23:52 AM

I'd be willing to bet there's at least one trader that was short CSCO and long INTC going into last night's close.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 10:22:35 AM

Cisco (CSCO) $19.62 +13.41% ... new intra-day high!

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 10:18:44 AM

Sep Crude Oil (cl06u) with two high/low settlement retracement at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 10:17:48 AM

I tried a couple of long positions this morning and was stopped and now I will wait until these two get back in sync. Link

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 10:16:03 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Inventories at U.S. wholesalers rose 0.8% in June as petroleum and apparel fueled a 1.4% increase in sales, the Commerce Department said Wednesday.

The inventory-to-sales ratio fell to 1.14 in June.

The increase in inventories was slightly lower than the 0.9% predicted by economists surveyed by MarketWatch.

Inventories had increased a revised 0.9% in May, up from 0.8% originally estimated. Over the past year, inventories are up 8.1%, while sales have gained 13.5%.

The wholesale inventory report is of interest primarily to economists tweaking their estimates for gross domestic product. It rarely affects financial markets.

Keene Little : 8/9/2006 10:15:22 AM

So far the pullback looks corrective but we could still see gap closure. It would be worth a try to buy it if that happens and then if the the gap doesn't support price we'll know that this morning's gap up was just an effort by the Boyz to distribute more of their inventory and we'll want to be looking for short plays. Until that happens we're in the chop zone here so the sidelines is still not a bad place to be. This needs to settle on a direction and one look at the past week will tell you there is no direction yet.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 10:14:49 AM


There is that 7.44 again!

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 10:10:41 AM


Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 10:09:52 AM




Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 10:09:20 AM


DJ- Shares jump more than 12% a day after the networking giant reports flat net income of $1.54 billion, or 25c a share, and 21% rise in sales. Excluding items, EPS of 30c is 2c above estimates. Cisco sees fiscal 2007 sales growth of 15%-20%.

CSCO $19.50 +12.78% Link

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 10:03:53 AM

Here is a nice little bear flag confirmed. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 10:03:42 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 10:02:07 AM

I still think we are in "buy the dips" but those dips may be hard to figure out.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 10:01:25 AM


Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 10:00:09 AM

TRIN is still rising and now testing its PDL - still bullish though.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 9:59:29 AM

Here is how the markets are trading in relation to their respective PDRs. Link

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 9:58:26 AM

Dear Diary - When you have a gap in the cash markets you need to wait before you can use the VIX to trade.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 9:56:28 AM


Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 9:55:58 AM

Wholesale Inventories in 5 minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 9:55:29 AM

Toll Brothers (TOL) $25.22 -5.15% Link ... Earnings Story Link

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 9:54:33 AM

Just to make me sure that I don't get to sure of myself ES makes a new daily low although only by 1 tick but it was a new daily low and not a new daily high.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 9:53:22 AM

Walt Disney Co. (DIS) $29.93 +3.27% Link ... Earnings Story Link

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 9:50:24 AM

Then of course, once it does make a new daily high it will have to contend with its PDH.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 9:49:02 AM

I think ES will make new daily highs soon.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 9:47:09 AM

But just to make sure you have something to worry about the TRIN is rising albeit still below its PDL.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 9:46:17 AM

AD line is +1331 and AD volume is making new daily highs. VIX is hugging its daily lows.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 9:45:33 AM

Do not try shorting this market. It is a buy on the dips.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 9:43:26 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 9:41:30 AM

Now ES to a new daily low.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 9:38:50 AM

YM just made a new daily low and is now trying to fill its cash market gap.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 9:36:45 AM

PetroChina (PTR) $115.57 +2.07% Link ... gaps above 2-week $115.00 resistance.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 9:32:45 AM

Both the VIX and TRIN open below their respective PDLs supporting the bullishness in the AD line and volume.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 9:32:01 AM

Well the bulls certainly have the reins this morning. AD line +836 and AD volume above 0.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 9:30:47 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- In the latest indication of trouble in the IPO market in general and the semiconductor industry in particular, Infineon Technologies AG slashed the size and price of its partial float of memory chip unit Qimonda AG on the New York Stock Exchange, citing current weak demand.

Excluding the over-allotment option, Europe's second-largest chipmaker now expects Qimonda to raise $546 million in fresh capital from an earlier forecast of over $1 billion.

Infineon (IFX) drastically reduced the issue of Qimonda (QI) shares to 42 million at $13 each with an over-allotment option of 6.3 million from an initial plan to sell 63 million shares for $16 to $18 apiece with an over-allotment option of up to 9.45 million.

Jeff Bailey : 8/9/2006 9:30:43 AM

After I went to sleep last night, both the Dollar Index (dx00y) 84.54 -0.14% and December Gold (gc06z) $661.00 +0.56% reversed directions.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 9:24:27 AM

Then we come to NQ the most bearish market of all. Yesterday NQ confirmed its bear flag and I think yearly lows are in jeopardy.

Please take note of where NQ traded overnight in relation to its jtHMA, the most sensitive MA on the chart. Link

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 9:21:38 AM

In my last post I said how ER traded yesterday in relation to the jtHMA. That should have been how ER traded overnight in relation to the jtHMA.

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 9:20:41 AM

ER is a much more bearish picture because this market has not closed above its 50EMA since July 7th and has only traded above it once since then. It is also using its 50EMA as resistance which also happens to be the June 15th swing high.

Notice also the MACD has crossed and the cross is below the 0 line. This is another reason I will not be a buyer in the S&P or the DOW.

One last point, notice how ER traded overnight in relation to the jtHMA (red and green MA). Link

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 9:11:04 AM

Exactly the same story with YM but with different numbers. Ym's low yesterday was right at the 50EMA which as been support since July 27th and YM also has a 65 point zone of resistance above it. Link

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 9:05:25 AM

Although ES traded below its 50EMA the bears were not able to close this market below it.

Since July 28th, ES has found support at its 50EMA and has moved sideways but it is also bumping its head up against a 14 point resistance zone.

As long as ES closes above its 50EMA I will give the bulls the benefit of the doubt but will not be a buyer of this market until it closes above the 14 point resistance zone. Link

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 8:54:27 AM

Here is a daily chart of the Nat Gas emini. It shows why I wanted to go long this market yesterday and why I wanted to take profits at 7.44. Link

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 8:49:41 AM

I did get a long in NAT Gas yesterday but I had my stop too close and was stopped overnight with a small gain. I was looking to exit at 7.44 (I will show you why when I review the daily chart of this market) and the overnight high so far as been 7.46.

Oil was sort of bullish overnight but had a relataively narrow range. Overnight high was 76.775

Gold broke its PDL but has retraced and is now almost testing its PDH. Overnight high was 660.60

TBonds were bearish and broke their PDL overnight putting upward pressure on yields. Link

Jane Fox : 8/9/2006 8:42:18 AM

Good morning all. A bullish overnight session with higher highs and lows. NQ has almost made it to its PDH although that feat was not too hard considering the bearishness of NQ yesterday. Link

Keene Little : 8/9/2006 8:29:58 AM

We've had quite a bullish overnight session and most of yesterday's post-FOMC drop has been retraced before the cash market has a chance to participate. That should cause a little short covering at the open. But it's always hard to trust these pre-market moves since it's easy to move the futures in a light volume environment. We might see the volatility continue for a bit before things settle on a direction.

A downtrend line from last Friday's high will bear watching since that will tell us whether or not the pullback is over or has more work to do. That would be at ES 1286, YM 11298 and NQ 1504. NQ, if it can hold here, is already above that downtrend line. As I mentioned below, NQ has the best bullish picture in my mind so that one could be the one to watch today.

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