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Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 3:01:50 AM

Right again Marc (politics)! All traders and ESPECIALLY INVESTORS have to remember is how stock futures traded the evening that Ohio/Florida returns came in during last Bush vs. Kerry election.

Disclosure: I'm registered as a Republican. I have never voted the party line just to do so, as there are some good Democrats that I share opinions with.

Why is it right-wing (conservatives) always stand shoulder to shoulder in solidarity, while liberals always fall out among themselves? - Yevgeny Yevtushenko

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 3:01:45 AM

Question regarding EXPD Jeff,

I am still holding my EXPD short, actually I have the August 40 puts that I bought at .80. They are now bidding 2.25, I sold some of them today, but still own a bit. I know your original target was 38, but all this thing does it continue to drop and looking at the chart, I don't see any bounce in the next week. What's your take on this one up to option expiration on August 18. I look forward to reading your advice.

Reply EXPD $39.57 +4.10% ... Ugh! with the $40 strike and just a week left into expiration. FANTASTIC job taking some off the table at target, but you know in your heart and mind what to do. Close'em out and roll the duration.

With the economy slowing (economic slowing does NOT equal economic recession), let EXPD rally, maybe a 3, or 4-box reversal Link then we'll look to put/short it again with target to bullish support.

Here's the IYT $76.67 +1.29% Link as it nears its bearish vertical count of $73

You don't HAVE to be a believer in PnF charts and their bullish/bearish vertical counts. All I ask it that a trader "pretend" they do, and "pretend" that the MARKET is all knowing, and "pretend" that sometimes, maybe the MARKET knows where a stock, or ETF/tracker is going. Remember that bull/bear vertical counts are based on the science of ballistics.

With EXPD and IYT you're working the STOCK and SECTOR and weighing the balance of observations (EXPD to trend vs. IYT to bearish vertical count).

With the SECTOR/IYT nearing its bearish vertical count, is it worth the RISK of profits into expiration?

That's what the MARKET asks itself each and every minute, hour and day. Is the RISK/REWARD favorable?

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 1:42:00 AM

I am not looking forward to the incessant barrage of political advertising this fall, but Wall street will like the idea of republicans holding on to their seats. Another reason to rally this month. Lower oil, lower rates, great retail numbers from Target, JC Panney and Kohl, IT spending up and back to school sales of computers. It adds up, logically, but these days, logic...

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 1:37:45 AM

Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The unraveling of a terrorist plot in London may bolster the Republican political strategy of presenting their party as best equipped to confront a dangerous world if the issue persists for the next three months...
The foiled British plot may help Republicans, said Joe Gaylord, former executive director of the National Republican Congressional Committee. National security "is our one remaining strength," Gaylord said. "Every time you have one of these incidents it forces back up into everyone's minds everything from 9/11." Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 1:18:31 AM

NYSE NH/NL Ratio Chart with "f"ive day and 10-day (X, O) at this Link

The SPX/SPY is really a "combination" of NYSE and NASDAQ stocks, but bigger weights are are NYSE listed.

I point to my error and the 07/21/06 purchase of the SPY-TV when the 10-day NH/NL ratio had come right back to the same measure of its "buy signal."

Recent trades I've profiled on the bearish side are DE and AXP, both NYSE listed. NOT trying to short/put stocks that have, or are near 52-week highs, but traders long some of those stocks either take profits on calls, or write covered calls on some profit taking. Monitor NASDAQ's weakness as the drag.

My "dashed blue" arrow is the envision of where the NYSE 10-day NH/NL ratio might pull back to, then find resumption of bullish leadership.

Keene Little : 8/10/2006 11:16:23 PM

Friday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 10:45:04 PM

NYSE Summation ($NYSI) 10-point box chart Link at 230 and right back to its early May (red 5) inflection point.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 10:29:56 PM

Closing Internals (corrected) found at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 8/10/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 7:08:59 PM

Congratulations and a BIG "thank you" to British authorities and the global anti-terror network for a job well done!

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 6:43:56 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Today's Activity

Just prior to the close shorted a full position in shares of American Express (AXP) at the bid of $51.95. Stop currently $52.50, targeting $51.00.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 6:33:15 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 6:32:23 PM

Stocks need to get a move on it and fast. I am bullish on techs, given the performance of the SOX, but it seems we just can't get out of bed. Multiple articles on the demise of the bull market, so expectations are low if non-existent. I am still in the camp of one more push in August/early September, but we need to get a move on it pronto. I want to see SMH hold 31.20 going forward and a breakout above 50 dma and soon. Keep those stops tight, so far the bullish trades have been working well with NQ, thanks to the SOX, but it has been a flip-flop affair. We are still in the midst of the post-fed news trade, but once we clear this week, bulls should hit the overdrive button. Let's certainly hope so.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 5:51:46 PM

GG $30.28 -2.35% Link ... $30.67 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 5:50:26 PM

Goldcorp (GG) Q2 Net Up on Higher Output, Lower Cash Costs

DJ- Goldcorp Inc. (GG), Vancouver, nearly doubled its second-quarter earnings on increased gold production and lower cash costs per ounce of gold.

The gold company said its second-quarter net income was $190.4 million or 49 cents a share compared with $98.0 million or 28 cents a year earlier.

Adjusted for non-cash items, Goldcorp earned $136.9 million or 36 cents a basic share in the latest quarter.

The Thomson First Call mean earnings estimate called for earnings of 35 cents a share for Goldcorp's second quarter.

Revenue rose to $491.5 million on 378,500 ounces of gold produced from $301.6 million on 281,000 ounces last year.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 5:48:39 PM

Valero (VLO) Doesn't Anticipate Short-term Prudhoe Bay Impact

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 5:14:54 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 5:06:35 PM

US Trade Deficit Down 0.3 Percent in June ... AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 4:58:25 PM

NVDA's August "Max Pain" theory $22.50 ($2.50 increments)

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 4:42:31 PM

NVDA's WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... $19.12, $21.54, Piv= $23.27, $25.68, $27.41.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 4:39:40 PM

Agree again Marc! I also think CSCO's rally was some relief and Mr. Chambers' solid comments that CSCO was clean.

This slight "hedge" and still looking by NVDA management is what brings a little jitter.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 4:35:44 PM

Yes, but it speaks volumes for computer sales, especially higher end machines. But with this stock option business, there is no telling where the stock will end. But good companies pull out of it (AAPL)

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 4:33:45 PM

NVDA has very little market cap weight in the QQQQ.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 4:33:32 PM

Max pain is 25 for NVDA. 22.50 has put support. Going to be interesting.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 4:32:20 PM

NQ is not that bothered so far because the business outlook is sound for chips and graphics. We need to hold 1496.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 4:31:17 PM

Disclosure: I currently hold some NVDA Sep $20 Puts. I currently have an order to buy 1/2 of the put exposure at $17.00, just in case there is a wild downside trade.

Example: If long 10 of the $20 puts, maybe place an order to buy 500 shares at $17.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 4:29:01 PM

At least we got out last week and booked a nice profit.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 4:28:34 PM

These tech companies and their option grants. What a pain.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 4:28:02 PM

I agree Marc (04:26:17)

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 4:27:12 PM

The NVIDIA. GeForce. Go notebook GPU product line achieved record revenue for the second consecutive quarter. NVIDIA grew share in the notebook standalone GPU segment from 24 percent to 37 percent from the first quarter of calendar 2006 to the second quarter of calendar 2006, as reported in Mercury Research's Second Quarter PC Graphics Report 2006. -- The NVIDIA nForce. MCP product line achieved record revenue for its eighth consecutive quarter. NVIDIA nForce MCPs increased their share of the AMD64 segment from 42 percent to 52 percent from the first quarter of calendar 2006 to the second quarter of calendar 2006, as reported in Mercury Research's Second Quarter Worldwide Chipset Report 2006. -- NVIDIA advanced its leadership position in multi-GPU technology with the introduction of the GeForce 7950 GX2 GPU for desktop PCs, enabling two GPUs to be incorporated onto one add-in card. Combining two GeForce 7950 GX2 add-in cards into a single PC system enables Quad SLI(TM) technology. -- NVIDIA announced PureVideo(TM) HD technology - a combination of hardware acceleration from an NVIDIA GPU, high definition movie player integration and HDCP feature support, to make it easy for manufacturers and consumers to build PCs that can play HD DVD or Blu-ray movies. -- The NVIDIA Quadro. professional product line increased its revenue 27 percent from the second quarter fiscal 2006 and achieved record revenue. -- The Professional Solutions Group introduced the NVIDIA Quadro Plex, the first dedicated Visual Computing System (VCS). NVIDIA Quadro Plex VCS represents an entirely new category of professional graphics solutions. It enables engineers and designers to experience advanced personal visualization solutions previously only accessible in large visualization centers. -- The NVIDIA GoForce. handheld GPU technology demonstration earned two "Best of Show" awards at the second-annual Freescale Technology Forum Americas, held July 24-27 in Orlando, Florida. The demonstration entitled "Entertainment without Limits" was selected as the "Most Innovative Platform."

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 4:26:17 PM

NVDA earnings were fine, this is what is hurting it AH: NVIDIA also announced today that the Audit Committee of the Board of Directors is conducting a voluntary review of the Company's stock option practices covering the time from the Company's initial public offering in 1999 through the current fiscal year. The Audit Committee is conducting this review with the assistance of outside legal counsel. The Company has voluntarily contacted the Securities and Exchange Commission staff to inform them about the ongoing review. Although the review is ongoing, the Audit Committee has reached a preliminary conclusion that incorrect measurement dates were used for financial accounting purposes for stock option grants in certain prior periods. As a result, NVIDIA may record additional non-cash stock-based compensation expense related to stock option grants. Any additional non-cash stock-based compensation expense recorded will not affect the Company's cash position or reported revenue for the recently completed quarter or any previous periods

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 4:25:07 PM

NVIDIA (NVDA) $24.16 -0.69% ... Earnings Press Release Link

Consensus was $0.27/share on Revenue of $673.64M

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 4:23:48 PM

QQQQ drops on NVDA. We will see what NQ does in 8mns, but NVDA better move back up. There is put support at 22.50

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 4:21:31 PM

NVDA alert ... $24.16 -0.69% ... lower at $22.23 on headline numbers.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 4:20:41 PM

NVDA drops to 22

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 4:07:45 PM

Speaking of ema's, look at the confluence we have at NQ 1500. 10 and 20 ema 30mn, 10, 20, 30 and 50 ema 5mn. It's the EMA wall of support.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 3:59:34 PM

Bullish close, considering, for techs, right back above 20 dma. Now techs await NVDA. Its a big deal.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 3:58:35 PM

Of late, The Stock Trader's Almanac daily bull/bear notes have been mixed.

However, with NYSE internals softening up a bit ...

Stock Trader's Almanac notes a very bearish historical trade for SPX tomorrow.

AXP kissed its WEEKLY R1 to the penny on Tuesday.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 4:04:54 PM

For those who ask what MA's or EMA's I use, I have pretty much narrowed it down to using simple moving averages on the daily/weekly and monthly charts and exponential on all intraday ( I never use a simple MA on intraday). The only ema I use on the daily is the 200 ema, as it often pertains to futures trading, believe it or not. I have no use for other complicated MA patterns, like 9, 13 and others. Just use MACD if you want crosses, but frankly, if you put up 10, 20,30 and 50 ema on all intraday, you will get your patterns, Just change the TIME frame, not the MA. The 100 ema on 5 mn by the way is a good one to add, if you trade 5mn, but know that it is the same or close as 10 ema 30mn.

Keene Little : 8/10/2006 3:55:49 PM

The good news for YM bulls is that it found support at that trend line along the lows since last Friday. Here's an update to the chart I showed earlier which shows the bounce back above the line, a pullback to test it this afternoon and now a bounce off that line. As long as 11120 holds now we could see this press higher. If we've got a choppier future in front of us it could drop a little lower and do another test of the trend line. Not easy times to trade. Link

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 3:53:53 PM

Economic Reports for tomorrow include:

8:30a.m. July Import Prices. Previous: +0.1%. 8:30a.m. July Retail And Food Sales. Previous: -0.1%.

8:30a.m. July Retail And Food sales, Ex-Autos. Previous: +0.3%.

10a.m. June Business Inventories. Previous: +0.8%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 3:52:57 PM

Swing trade sell short alert ... for shares of American Express (AXP) $51.95 here, stop $52.50, target $51.00.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 3:50:11 PM

NQ 20 dma has moved up to 1496.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 3:49:26 PM

NQ 10 dma R: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 3:45:43 PM

Updated SMH chart. note that major fib at 31.75: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 3:46:41 PM

Feels very trappy both ways, Keene. I agree. I will stick to the 20 dma on NQ at 1495.50 and maybe earlier low yesterday at 1492 as line in the sand now. We have played enough with weekly S1 and the markets will collapse on any move down there again. Stop stays at 1491. The one savng grace is that we are above 20 dma and that SMH and semis are even above 10 dma. That's bullish on a very basic level, I agree, but sometimes it works to stay simple. If SMH closes above 31.75, it is very clear buy signal. Yesterday, we stalled at 50 dma, 31.88.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 3:40:47 PM

ICE alert $61.00 +1.90% Link ... X gets the square at trend.

Weekly R2 just ahead at $61.22

Keene Little : 8/10/2006 3:31:18 PM

NQ, which had been giving me bullish signals, is flashing warning signals for the short side now. I don't like the pattern of the bounce as it looks too corrective. That could mean new lows are coming. Or it means we'll continue in a very choppy pattern both up and down and it will make trading an exercise in frustration, in which case take profits often in both directions.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 3:29:57 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Taking some notes on the SPY-TV ... $126.00 - 0.90 = $125.10.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 3:19:01 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 3:19:31 PM

Before I get flooded with e-mails, remember that professional traders are a very generous lot and often give vast amounts to charity. I mention the Vets, because they are close to my heart and my family. I am here to help you make money, I don't get paid (it's my choice), all I ask is that when you do well thanks to one of my trades, remember someone in your community might need help. Not in some far away land, but right here. That is my only message, but that is the deal I have with you.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 3:13:53 PM

Ameron (AMN) $60.00 +1.76% Link ... very thinly trade "steel pipe" stock.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 3:02:30 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 2:54:58 PM

That's CSCO and AIG now.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 2:54:36 PM

American Intl. Group (AIG) $60.57 +3.59% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 2:51:36 PM

I've been trying to get in contact with a couple of traders at the NYMEX, but they are obviously very busy.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 2:50:18 PM

According to the definition of a bear flag I posted earlier these channels could be bear flags but they are not because they have just gone on too far and have morphed into upward channels. Now what is too far and when does a bear flag become an upward channel? Well that is where technical analysis gets a little dicey and you have to fall back on experience with seeing these patterns time and time again. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 2:49:39 PM

Marc ... I have little experience/history with force majeure.

How long does it last? Or, can a trader sell short crude, or be long, and if they get on the wrong side of the trade, then referance force majeure to free themselves from liability?

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 2:44:36 PM

* NYSE VOLUME 1.08B
* NYSE HAS 1,776 ADVANCERS
* NYSE HAS 1,422 DECLINERS
* NYSE HAS 140 ISSUES UNCHANGED
* NYSE HAS 29 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK HIGHS
* NYSE HAS 34 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK LOWS
* NASDAQ VOLUME 1.23B
* NASDAQ HAS 1,713 GAINERS
* NASDAQ HAS 1,214 LOSERS
* NASDAQ HAS 135 ISSUES UNCHANGED
* NASDAQ HAS 15 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK HIGHS
* NASDAQ HAS 80 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK LOWS

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 2:44:35 PM

Trade is +17 now, so take some off if in multiples. Gotta go, leave the stop at 1491 on remaining.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 2:43:54 PM

Talking about PPT, futures manipulation is no different than political manipulation. Each party does it, Democrats famously did it for Vietnam. Those who look away will miss trades, like going long today.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 2:41:16 PM

In any case, we can't let these terrorists run our lives. They are meaningless ants that have no material effect on anything, only what we allowed them to have. Turn off the news and live your life. It's a beautiful country.

On another note, my wife has been helping a homeless Korean war vet, a decorated hero, to try and get sheltrr, food and rehab from alcohol. She is exepriencing first hand the nigtmare of the VA and how little is done to care for our soldiers who fall through the cracks. She was in tears on the phone with me just a minute ago, but she will make it happen. How can they do it on their own if my wife, a successful TV commercial producer can barely do it for him with all the savvy she has? Don't forget our vets and go out there and call or write your representative. Talk is cheap, and politicians who talk about fighting and helping the troops should look at home and quit cutting these programs. Shame.

Keene Little : 8/10/2006 2:35:50 PM

Just checking YM's pattern and the bounce could be over, at least for today. Two equal legs up for that one is at 11176 which it missed by a tick. The 2nd leg up was a nice 5-wave move which says it's finished. We'll either consolidate sideways now in preparation for another leg up or that's it and we'll head for new lows. Longs should be careful here.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 2:34:37 PM

ConocoPhillips Declares Force Majeure On Prudhoe Bay Oil

DJ- ConocoPhillips (COP) has declared force majeure on deliveries of crude oil from Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, owing to the shutdown by the operator BP PLC (BP) of the largest field in the U.S.

BP owns about 26% of the Prudhoe Bay field and is responsible for operating it for the other partial owners, Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and ConocoPhillips (COP).

"The company is advising crude oil customers that the curtailment of supply from the Prudhoe Bay field has resulted in the decision to declare force majeure pursuant to terms of the applicable sales contracts," ConocoPhillips spokesman Bill Tanner said.

Conoco is trying to minimize delay or disruption of shipments, Tanner said.

Force majeure is a clause in a contract that frees one or both parties from liability when an extraordinary event outside of its control takes place.

The decision will impact refiners including Astra Oil, whose 44,000 barrel a day Tacoma, Washington refinery receives supplies from Conoco, according to a person at that company who spoke on condition of anonymity. "We don't know the ramifications yet," the person said.

The net production impacts are estimated to be 120,000 to 125,000 barrels a day, according to a person familiar with the declaration of force majeure.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 2:34:32 PM

* NASDAQ ADVANCERS OUTNUMBER DECLINERS 17 TO 12 * NYSE ADVANCERS OUTNUMBER DECLINERS 19 TO 13

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 2:33:45 PM

By new paradigm I meant terror threat is back and security is all of a sudden the political weapon again. Watch and see how majority incumbents up for re-election will defend themselves. It will all be about that.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 2:31:18 PM

We have been hearing word from our energy contacts that weakness in the crude pits was attributed to BP buying Sep/Nov crude spreads on the NYMEX through Mann Financial; contact says this means BP was selling Sep crude thinking the curve goes lower. Hearing this is part of a front spread roll. Also adding to downward pressure on gasoline and crude was word Shell resumed pumping at Sanbarth-Krakrama pipeline in Nigeria. Crude is currently 74.45 -1.90.M

Thanks Dan.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 2:30:14 PM

Marc ... The dollar/gold action does a make me wonder. In overseas trading, gold reverses losses, dollar weakens.

Then, just more than 24-hours terrorists caught on flights headed for U.S.

I'm not sure what the "new election paradigm" is.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 2:29:02 PM

Jane,
Would you briefly explain "bear flag" and how it pertains to recent market activity?
Thanks,
Wes

Wes
Sure enough. A bear flag is simply an upward channel counter to the downward trend. Here is how Stockcharts.com explains it "A flag is a small rectangle pattern that slopes against the previous trend. If the previous move was up, then the flag would slope down. If the move was down, then the flag would slope up. Because flags are usually too short in duration to actually have reaction highs and lows, the price action just needs to be contained within two parallel trend lines."

The bear flag is confirmed when the bottom trendline breaks. Very often there is a retest of this trendline and the test will usually fail. However this morning the bear flags did not play out and makes one wonder what or who is playing around in the sandbox today.

TKS for the email Wesley.

Jane

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 2:24:52 PM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $63.17 -2.25% ... 40-cent box chart Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 2:23:50 PM

Jeff, I am starting to wonder about some of those conspiracies or at least I don't shrug them off as easily as I used to. Many wackos, for sure, but you have to wonder sometimes. No one got hurt, but all of a sudden, we have a new election paradigm. Just like that. And watch rates go down, gasoline go down and the stock market go up.

Keene Little : 8/10/2006 2:23:04 PM

If this little pullback is followed by another push higher and looks to be hitting resistance at ES 1278 with negative divergence that's where I'd short it, stop at 1280. If it keeps heading higher then the next Fib projection is at 1283.50 and that gets it close to the downtrend line from last Friday.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 2:18:24 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1487, raise stop to 1491.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 2:22:04 PM

December Gold (gc06z) 646.00 -2.41% ... it does undercut the 08/08/06 overnight lows.

Remember that late-night volume observation for gc06z ... I then showed the dx00y? Link (10:02:30 PM and 10:58:19 PM)

Then yesterday morning, it was like... what the heck?

I'm not big on conspiracy theory, but weird to think about last night's terrorist attempts.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 2:12:48 PM

INT broke out above 17.77, NQ is at 10 dma R 1506, so let;s see what gives now. SMH up 2%. Don't fight it.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 2:11:56 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Venture capital investing in alternative energy and other clean technologies rose 64% to a record $843 million in the second quarter, moving ahead of medical and telecom to become the third most investment lucrative field, the Cleantech Venture Network said Thursday.

It's the eighth consecutive quarter of growth for the sector. The energy segment made up the biggest component of clean tech investing with $594 million, up 69%.

The only sector ranking ahead of clean tech are biotech and software.

The surge comes along with a rise in oil prices, which have moved up above $75 a barrel from about $50 a barrel in the past year.

Cleantech Venture Network defines the category as "services, products and technologies that use energy, water and other raw materials more efficiently and productively, while delivering equal or superior performance compared to incumbent technologies."

The biggest clean tech investment in the quarter went to Current Communications, an energy infrastructure company that deploys Internet communications over power lines to both boost efficiency and deliver Web services

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 2:10:07 PM

BUDGET DEFICIT $239.7 BLN YEAR-TO-DATE, DOWN 20.8%

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 2:09:46 PM

* JULY BUDGET OUTLAYS DOWN 1.3% TO $193 BLN
* JULY BUDGET RECEIPTS UP 12.4% TO $159.8 BLN
* JULY FEDERAL BUDGET DEFICIT $33.2 BLN, AS EXPECTED

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 2:04:53 PM

Check out NVDA ... 15-minute interval with a trend from the 07/21/06 relative low to 08/01/06 low.

Marc had a GREAT call option trade as I remember.

Stock ignited on the ATYT/AMD merger

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 1:47:24 PM

SPX NH/NL currently 4:13 ... 5-day 52.9%, 10-day 61.9%

Yesterday's tally was 16:3 ... 63.0%/65.6%

Keene Little : 8/10/2006 1:45:29 PM

Looks like the 2nd leg up in progress here. Upside projection is ES 1278 if we get two equal legs up.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 1:45:08 PM

01:30 Internals found at this Link ... It would take a 60.00% measure for the NYSE 10-day NH/NL ratio to reverse back lower.

It would take a 30.00% for the NASDAQ 10-day NH/NL ratio to reverse back lower.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 1:42:15 PM

CCI had now crossed back below +200 YM is at 11137 a much better entry.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 1:36:35 PM

TICKS +1000 CCi +202 YM 11129.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 1:32:07 PM

01:30 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 1:53:39 PM

Marc ... I was seriously considering sending my parents to Europe for the anniversary for a couple of weeks, but airfare was so high.

They should come down now.

My dad would go, but now way could I get my mom on the plane. She doesn't like to fly as it is and she'd rather spend a couple of weeks at a resort here in the Colorado.

Mom would wonder why I was sending them to Europe now.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 1:17:27 PM

QQQQ now my final chart (updated) that I've shown the past couple of months with conventional (blue) low/high close and "bear fit 38.2%" Link

There is NO DOUBT in my mind, that the QQQQ will eventually close above $37.25, and yesterday, or even a couple of days ago, the QQQQ/NQ could have run to $38.00. It didn't and still finds sellers as it encounters overhead supply and "sell bias" after trade at $35.55.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 1:16:14 PM

Only a trader would think of buying an airline ticket to Europe now...

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 1:25:15 PM

This is the time to buy a ticket for Europe. Cheap.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 1:12:23 PM

These two have been all over the map but never above 0. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 1:07:39 PM

As I typed that, gold just lost the 20 dma. If short, put your stop at 644 and let it fall.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 1:07:00 PM

All the bear flags have confirmed. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 1:06:52 PM

643 is line in the sand for gold at the close. 50% 2006. Long above, short below. Link

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 1:01:59 PM

TBonds just took a plunge

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 1:01:03 PM

All the news wires are talking about the selloff in Gold but looking at the daily chart and you get an idea that today's selloff is nothing to worry about. The 50EMA was today's support and that just happens to coincide with the upward trendline from June 14th. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 12:55:39 PM

Long NQ, short ES, a good neutral risk trade.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 12:55:30 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Shares of E.W. Scripps Co. (SSP) )(42.68, +1.78, +4.4%) advanced 4.6% to $42.77 on Thursday after the Cincinnati media company reported its July revenue figures. Before the opening bell, the company said revenue from newspapers it solely manages was $56.6 million in July, flat with its performance a year ago, while its Scripps Networks operations saw an increase of 24% to $81.9 million for the month, and its broadcast television stations posted revenue of $22.9 million in July, up 6.9% from last year. Link

SSP is turning bullish. Notice the nice bullish MACD and RSI divergences and how today's rally broke the downward trendline.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 12:51:41 PM

Here comes OXY $105.46 -0.81% ... yesterday it closed below WEEKLY Pivot ($106.72)

Today, and for the first time this week, September Crude pulls back to/under its WEEKLY Pivot $74.75.

Things look "squared up" now.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 12:49:21 PM

You've got to be kidding me .... PetroChina (PTR) $114.93 -0.45% Link and its bar chart Link ... I was thinking it would be down 3%

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 12:47:38 PM

Caterpillar (CAT) $68.60 +0.11% Link ... "membership has some privelege" today. (Dow component, index buyers) Deere, Co (DE) $69.39 -1.39% Link ... no privelege today.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 12:45:48 PM

Mean target for INTC is 22. That is 5 minimum for the trade by December. INTC will come out with an update soon and start pumping it now that they have picked up some options. Either they will annouhce more lay-offs, or strong demand for their high-end servers.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 12:42:39 PM

NVDA after the close.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 12:42:19 PM

INTC has resistance at 17.77, 61.8%. 20 dma is 17.63, so the buying range is tight and at some point you have to take the plunge.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 12:41:34 PM

I also know, that ANY QQQQ Put buyer that also has a futures trading account will find many intra-day opportunities to scalp bullish NQ futures trades!

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 1:10:04 PM

INTC OPTION Entry Point Alert -
Long January 17.5 calls at 1.70, stop is underlying at 16.95.
I have been cost averaging this trade for some time, but the time has come to make it a monitor trade once again.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 12:39:20 PM

INTC is back above 20 dma and I will put in a leap trade on the monitor.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 12:38:14 PM

There is no doubt in my mind that near-term support for the QQQQ is $36.20-$36.25. Only when/if that is broken does the "final wave" of selling before the end of year rally then take place.

A QQQQ CLOSE above $37.25-$37.30 is the signal for strength.

Remember my "bear fit 38.2%" on the NQ.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 12:37:58 PM

I would put incremental buy orders for CSCO starting at 18.95, then 18.77, 18.50 and 18.30. Stop should be 17.30.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 12:36:02 PM

Speaking of CSCO, 50 dma is 18.94, and is in the gap, so if we get there, I would start buying that stock. It is normal to see profit taking in the biggest gainer and move your money to INTC for instance. But they will put some back into CSCO soon. The important thing is that the money is not leaving the markets, it's moving around.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 12:33:44 PM

CSCO $19.54 -1.26% ... "the bull's catalyst stock" in my mind.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 12:33:00 PM

MSFT $24.44 (unch)

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 12:32:30 PM

VXN 21.22 ... edges below its WEEKLY Pivot

QQQQ $36.74

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 12:32:09 PM

A rally lead by technology and small caps is bullish and has legs.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 12:30:15 PM

RLX up 1.21%, SOX up 1.32% and gasoline down 4%.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 12:29:08 PM

R for NQ is 1498.50, 1503,1506 and 1512.75. Support is 1495.50, 1492, 1488.75, 1486.25.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 12:31:41 PM

The biggest volume candles for NQ are green and that has been the case since the open, so I have to disagree Jane. The volume drop is lunch. It's bears that have something to prove here, not bulls. Of course, if you look at YM and ES, the picture is not so bright. But NQ/QQQQ/COMP/SMH/SOX are showing relative strength.

Keene Little : 8/10/2006 12:23:37 PM

Also notice on that chart of YM how volume has dropped off during this bounce attempt. That alone looks bearish. Bulls have some work to do today...

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 12:21:58 PM

* NO CARRY-ON BAGGAGE PERMITTED ON U.K. TO U.S. FLIGHTS
* DELTA WAIVES FEES ON ONE-TIME TICKET CHANGE FOR U.K. TRAVEL

Keene Little : 8/10/2006 12:18:57 PM

Here's one thing I don't like--YM is struggling underneath the trend line along the lows since last Friday, currently near 11130, after breaking below it yesterday. I'm at a different computer so here's a chart from my QuoteTracker to show it. Bulls need YM to get back above 11130 and hold otherwise we're looking at a potential kiss goodbye here. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 12:18:31 PM

For the life of me, I can't see how a Fed would want to raise rates further, expect the wacko from Richmond. Even if we don;t get a rally, at least we know where the money is going. SOX, small caps and techs in general.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 12:15:28 PM

I just want MI5 to move to Virginia. I would feel safer.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 12:14:08 PM

Conspiracy theorists will probably say there will be no attacks, this is just to get fear level raised ahead of elections in the US and that the whole thing is rather suspicious. But I digress. You watch stock market manipulations for 20 years, your mind wanders...

Keene Little : 8/10/2006 12:12:35 PM

This is turning into a choppy climb off this morning's low. But so what else is new. The bulls are holding it but I'm sure not excited about the upside still. Nor am I enticed to short this yet. Long if you must but flat is not a bad place for now.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 12:11:21 PM

VXN 21.47 -0.60%

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 12:11:00 PM

Is my bearishness showing thru just a tad. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 12:10:33 PM

QQQQ Sep Options Montage found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 12:03:58 PM

Three cheers for the Britsih intelligence! What stand up folks.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 11:56:00 AM

China July Trade Surplus ... Forbes Link

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 11:51:58 AM

Bear Flags everywhere! Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 11:51:52 AM

CSCO seeing some profit taking, but still very bullish at 19.50. I would buy that stock on weakness. INTC up 1.26%, MU up 2.56%, the Vista nuts and bolts trade is on (memory and graphics: remember that INTC is also the #1 graphics card maker out there with the integrated board).

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 11:58:05 AM

I should note that there was news out of China last night regarding that the country imported less oil than expected in July.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 11:48:02 AM

SOX up 1.02%. ER and NQ leading, with an edge for NQ.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 11:43:00 AM

One thing for sure: we would not go to war over solar or hydrogen. Maybe the Vikings would come down and invade a warmer country, but hey, that already happened.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 11:42:55 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Tab Gilles : 8/10/2006 11:48:30 AM

$SPX/$TRANMarkets have been resilient the last few months, considering all the geopolitical and economical events that have occured. Link Link

Keene Little : 8/10/2006 11:37:23 AM

We've now got a 3-wave bounce off this morning's low. In order for this to turn into something more bullish to the upside I'd like to see this become a 5-wave move. Until then if you're long from this morning you can use the low at 10:53 as your stop level (a couple of ticks below it). So far so good for the bulls but it's still early.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 11:37:04 AM

11:15 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 11:36:25 AM

Gasoline futures down 4%.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 11:39:43 AM

If they don;t pass this gas saving at the pump pronto, they better not come crying to Congress about windfall profit taxes. People out there are fed up with these shenanigans and oil companies are NOT playing by the rules. Spank 'em. They are responsibile for blocking new technologies over the years, pollution, wars and hording cash when we should be on non-fossil by now. Should have happened years ago. I'm going for coffee.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 11:34:03 AM

I suspect many are using this bounce to go to cash. Hence the noise and hesitation. The only thing I don;t like is trading like last year when the London bombings occured. Too many are playing that one (up), so I will keep the stop at even, just in case.

Tab Gilles : 8/10/2006 11:32:01 AM

$NDX/$GSO/$GGHA/$SOX/$BPNDX/$NASI Link Link Link Link Link Link Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 11:26:07 AM

ES is weaker because of oil, but someone's pain is someone's gain. Money at some point will rotate out of commodities and into technology.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 11:27:47 AM

I don't consider this to be PPT. Those guys show up when we really fall. We barely budged, unlike Europe, which freaked out. Today, value investors stepped in on the good news surrounding the tech sector and retailers.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 11:19:29 AM

11:15 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 11:13:59 AM

Don't bet against the SOX. How many times to traders have to be told this.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 11:09:39 AM

The news is good. The only bad news is something that did not even happen. Let's get real.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 11:09:08 AM

Back for a quick check. All the micro traders that shorted this will feel the pain. Support si now clear between 1492 and 1495.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 10:55:48 AM

Here is a chart of Deere & Co (DE) the excellent short Jeff profiled yesterday. The puts he bot at 5.30 ar now at 6.40. Link

Keene Little : 8/10/2006 10:50:01 AM

This is why I say the bulls are hanging on and it could be an edge-of-the-cliff play to go long here. ES closed its 60-min candle right at the bottom of its bull flag pattern (if that's what the past week has formed), left another hammer doji at support and the oscillators are beginning to turn back up, or at least threatening to do so. Clearly a drop to a new daily low would be bearish and I would then switch to selling the rallies from there. Link

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 10:49:23 AM

DAteline WSJ - LONDON -- The alleged plot to bring down several trans-Atlantic flights simultaneously involved liquid explosives, according to a British government official. Security experts say the most likely substance the alleged plotters sought to use was liquid nitroglycerin.

According to Bob Ayers, an associate fellow at the Chatham House in London and vice president for homeland security for Selex Sensors and Airborne Systems, the most likely scenario was that terrorists planned to bring sealed containers of liquid nitroglycerin on board planes in their hand baggage. They could have then used the electric current from a simple device, such as a travel alarm clock or a cellphone, to detonate the container.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:42:46 AM

It might be a mistake as all this noise could stop me out, but I have to protect your capital above everything else. Gotta go, back in an hour.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:41:25 AM

I am concerned about the lack of strenght at 1495.50, This is why the stop stays at even.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:43:56 AM

Small caps are leading up. I noted that event in the making last night as it seemed very strange it was being pummeled with lower rates. Now the market is coming to. The markets are dumb. You can know better and you can beat it. Yes it's hard and yes it's scary, but you must shut out micro events and stick to macro, unless you are just a scalper, but scalpers barely even pay rent.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 10:40:15 AM

Nat GAs futures liked the inventory numbers out at 10:30 and spiked upwards. That is one volatile little market.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 10:37:40 AM

I place my bets on the VIX and think we continue to see new daily highs now but I would sure like to see AD line and volume get above 0.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:37:26 AM

Support levels: 1486.25, 1488.75, 1492. Resistance 1495.50. I have to go, but there is the road map. If we breakout above 1495.50, that will be obvious support, so raise your stops.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 10:38:39 AM

TRIN is now 1.30 and climbing. This is not bullish but the VIX is falling so price remains stuck in the middle.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:35:29 AM

Stepping away. The SOX never lies. Rotate into techs.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:35:12 AM

1488.75 should hold now, in fact 1492 is wgere buyers start stepping in on pullbacks.

Keene Little : 8/10/2006 10:35:02 AM

So far the bulls are saving this but it's certainly not something that's got me excited yet about buying it. However, I don't doubt that there will be some "support" from some unknown buyer (cough) and that makes shorting this market a little tougher.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:34:49 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1487, raise stop to even.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 10:34:46 AM

TRIN to a new daily high as well. HMMMM !

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:34:36 AM

NQ at 20 dma. Now it needs to hold 1492 and we are off.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 10:34:27 AM

AD line as improved to -359.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:36:12 AM

But if it wasn't for them, we would not make the big bucks at major turning points.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 10:34:09 AM

And there is the new ES daily high.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:33:23 AM

I should have said how stupid shorts can get. Or longs at extreme.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:32:42 AM

The only piece of bad news was a foiled terrorist plot. The rest of the news is very good. IT spending up, retail sales up, gas going down now. With the stock market having just experienced a major three month correction, you have to wonder how greedy traders can get at extremes. Hogs get slaughtered.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 10:32:42 AM

NATURAL-GAS SUPPLIES DOWN 12 BCF IN LATEST WEEK - DOE

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:30:10 AM

I saw all this good news pre-open and my fisrt thought was that we would have been smoking if it wasn;t for the UK news.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 10:29:55 AM

VIX breaks to a new daily low suggesting an ES new daily high

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:29:42 AM

There is just too much good news on the retail front. RLX up 1.57% and gas is falling. Not to mention rates.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 10:28:50 AM

I forgot to mention we have the Treasury Budget at 2:00 today.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:28:03 AM

Jane, I think bulls are making it clear they are in control. Price is holding up.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 10:27:13 AM

These make it very clear as to who is in control. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:26:24 AM

IB is off. TNX shows red but ZN does to.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:23:46 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1487, lower stop to 1484.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:23:30 AM

They are going to nail some stops. They can see me at 1485.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:22:43 AM

Hedgies want to drive this one down to the gutter.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:25:21 AM

you have to wonder now if Feds will ever raise rates again this year with terrorism back on the forefront.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:20:41 AM

Equities are doing much better than commodities.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:20:15 AM

Gold down 1.15%.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:19:58 AM

QU (unleaded futures) down 3.37%!

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 10:19:34 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices rose early Thursday, sending yields lower, as investors fled to the safety of bonds following news that British authorities discovered a plot to blow up several planes heading for the U.S.

"Geopolitical risks have been thrust back into the spotlight this morning" and "placed a solid bid into the market, with the 10-year sector benefiting the most," said David Ader, government bond strategist at RBS Capital Markets.

"The decision of the U.S. and U.K. to increase their respective terror alerts to the highest levels has also reinforced the magnitude of the story -- and will help keep this sentiment in the market this morning," he said

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:19:31 AM

QM is starting to fall aprt. Gas is tumbling. If you wanted to short anything today, that was it

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:18:06 AM

SOX back up again.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:17:50 AM

Most of you just kept it with the stop at 1485. which is fine, it held up. I tend to fiddle around a little just to be safe. Watch 1488.75 now.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 10:17:23 AM

TICKS +800.

Keene Little : 8/10/2006 10:16:55 AM

After that dragonfly doji finish yesterday ES has obviously dropped below it which negates the pattern but it's not exactly letting go here. The 60-min candle is showing a doji just below the trend line support. However, if it can't finish above 1267 in the next 15 minutes I'd say we have a bearish looking pattern. At that point if the buyers are able to push ES back up to close its gap at 1271.50 I'd consider shorting it there.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:16:35 AM

Someone is putting some pressure and refuses to let this thing go down. They know where to go: Above NQ 1486. We get another move above 1488.75, and bears will start covering. Right now, a toss up.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 10:16:31 AM

The VIX never did make a new daily high so ES's lows hold.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:15:26 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1487, stop 1485.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:13:46 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
+0

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:12:49 AM

It keeps holding, I keep trying.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:12:39 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1487, stop 1485.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 10:12:07 AM

But with a rising AD volume and TRIN I bet not for long.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:11:51 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
+0

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 10:11:31 AM

And daily lows hold.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:10:10 AM

still green

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:10:01 AM

Not enough yet. SOX is getting hit a little.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 10:09:52 AM

Then again AD volume continues to fall so maybe not...

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:09:45 AM

NQ ad lines improving

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 10:11:06 AM

AS ES tests daily lows TRIN breaks to a new daily high but the VIX does not so I think those daily lows will hold - for now.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:09:12 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1487, stop 1485.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:07:56 AM

we wait and see

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:07:45 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
+0

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:05:15 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1487, raise stop to even.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:04:22 AM

1488.75 holds.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 10:04:21 AM

VIX is not giving any clues here. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:04:15 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Raise stop to 1486

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:03:09 AM

Big battle here.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:03:00 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Lower stop to 1485.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 10:02:56 AM

Ad line is -940 and AD volume falling. This is not bullish folks.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:02:21 AM

1488.75 is 61.8%, they are holding it. Barely. After that, it;'s 1486.25, then 1483, then forget it.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 10:01:47 AM

NQ has been the only market to test its overnight high. I think they are worth watching today.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 10:01:19 AM

NQ;s overnight high was 1495.50 and today highs far was 1496. Resistance?

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:00:55 AM

SOX up .31%

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 10:00:40 AM

QQQQ above 20 dma, but not NQ. That is the battle (1495.50). Everyone is watching and so far it is not convincing. I will bail on another drop to weekly s1.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 10:00:08 AM

TRIN continues to climb.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 9:59:39 AM

ES tags daily highs but is not able to break it.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 9:57:33 AM

TRIn probing daily highs but still at 1.09 not bearish. VIX is falling.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 9:57:31 AM

SMH back in the up channel and above 10 dma (31.17)

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 9:55:26 AM

Overnight highs have not been tested yet. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 9:55:12 AM

Let's just pray Dick Cheney keeps his mouth shut. Please, no war talk now. Let's get above the 20 dma first.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 9:54:16 AM

IBM helping the DOW. ES is getting hurt by energy stocks, but NQ looks to have some very bullsih potential thanks to semis and dropping gas prices.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 9:51:23 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Under emergency procedures put in place overnight, no liquids or gels will be allowed in carry-on luggage on U.S. air carriers, the Department of Homeland Security announced Thursday.

Here are the new rules for passengers in the United States:

No liquids or gels are allowed in carry-on baggage. This includes beverages, shampoo, toothpaste, lotions, sunscreen, or creams. Such items should be put into checked luggage, consumed or discarded. Exceptions are granted for infant formula, breast milk or juice for infants traveling.

Prescription drugs and insulin are also allowed with proper identification.

The government recommends that passengers pack light to speed up the process of going through security. Long delays are being reported.

Carry-on bags are being checked at the gate.

The new rules are in response to the arrest in the United Kingdom of 21 people accused of plotting to destroy aircraft by exploding liquids in their carry-on bags.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 9:52:32 AM

Jane, that is why I am long. Because there are many shorts betting on a breakdown, but the SOX is green. DOn;t bet against the SOX.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 9:50:57 AM

1488.75 is 61.8%

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 9:50:44 AM

For NQ. Considering.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 9:50:34 AM

AD lines are not that bad.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 9:48:45 AM

It eaither goes here or doesn't. But the SOX is GREEN. I have been watching the SOX and its bullishness for days now and that is why I am behind techs. Nevertheless, many Armageddon traders out there. Let's eat them up.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 9:47:43 AM

NQ is holding on to its lower trendline support. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 9:46:15 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1487, raise stop to 1486.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 9:45:51 AM

There is noise, but there is support.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 9:45:39 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Lower stop to 1484.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 9:44:32 AM

Keene, NQ already closed the gap, sold and tested lows.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 9:43:40 AM

Sorry Marc but I wouldn't even think about been long here.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 9:43:20 AM

C'mon. This is key.

Keene Little : 8/10/2006 9:43:15 AM

I'm wating for the opening dust to settle and see if we get an immediate recovery or not. That should then set the tone for the rest of the day. If the market continues to settle lower, any bounce back up to close the gaps, or to yesterday's low, will be an opportunity to short it.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 9:43:06 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1487, stop 1485

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 9:42:46 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
+1

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 9:42:06 AM

August lows hold for NQ.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 9:41:01 AM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1487, stop 1485.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 9:40:20 AM

COMP at key support, NQ at weekly S1

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 9:38:52 AM

These guys of course wait weeks to pass it along to consumers.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 9:38:37 AM

TICKS chime in at -800.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 9:38:22 AM

OIl down .91% but gasoline down 2.59%!

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 9:38:15 AM

Yup!

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 9:37:37 AM

New daily lows coming?

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 9:37:36 AM

ES 50 dma.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 9:37:14 AM

TRIN now climibing.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 9:36:26 AM

Never take the first bounce.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 9:36:17 AM

Let the sellers come in post-open

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 9:35:54 AM

AD line is now -943 and volume falling so don't be expecting to much upside here.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 9:34:34 AM

Here is how the markets are trading in relation to their PDRs. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 9:34:20 AM

SOX green. I commented on that strenght last night. It;s still here.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 9:33:58 AM

20 dma is 1495.50.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 9:33:47 AM

NQ gap closed.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 9:33:21 AM

SMH and SOX are holding up very well. IBM shoots up.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 9:33:04 AM

VIX opens above its PDH but the TRIN opens below its PDL. Go figure!!

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 9:32:26 AM

AD line opens at -660 and AD volume below 0 so the bears have the reins. Not too surprising is it?

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 9:32:26 AM

Wait for gap closes to try a short ar to see if a long will work.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 9:30:15 AM

US $ has found a zone of support with a MACD turning up and from an oversold RSI. This could spell trouble with a capital "T" for Gold. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 9:24:57 AM

ES 1262 and NQ 1483 are key support area. I am not feeling very bullish about this right now. I don't like trading similarities and lots of traders are remembering the last London event. The one positive for the markets is the drop in oil which is certain to come and the excellent pre-open news. Let's see what happens.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 9:22:02 AM

Interestingly NQ has held on to its triangle even with the overnight news. Needless to say this very much surprises me, doesn't get me bullish but is quite surprising. Link

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 9:19:56 AM

ER is almost to its yearly lows. Link

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 9:18:03 AM

SAme story for YM. Link Link

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 9:15:00 AM

The bears were able to close ES below the 50EMA support yesterday and due to the overnight news bring it down even further. I expect the bulls to be able to get ES back to lower trendline for a test and then resume its decline to test yearly lows. Link

Here is a look at that trendline on a 240 minute chart. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 9:10:43 AM

This is going to be a key day for the markets. The economic news is reassuring, deficit narrows , Link merger news and solid retail numbers. The geo-political news is scary. Who wins? We will find out.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 9:07:17 AM

Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- J.C. Penney Co., the third-largest U.S. department-store company, said profit increased 37 percent, helped by sales of women's accessories and men's clothing. The company lifted its full-year forecast. Net income in the second quarter ended July 29 rose to $179 million, or 76 cents a share, from $131 million, or 50 cents, a year ago, the Plano, Texas-based company said today in a statement. Sales increased 6.5 percent to $4.24 billion from $3.98 billion. Sales at stores open at least a year rose 6.6 percent, the largest quarterly increase in two years, buoyed by items such as $40 Worthington strap satchels and $26 St. John's Bay men's polo shirts. Chief Executive Officer Myron Ullman is reducing discounts and promoting J.C. Penney's own brands such as the X Games boys clothing line introduced last month. "Penney has been doing well across the store," said Keri Spanbauer, an analyst at Minneapolis-based Thrivent Investment Management, who helps manage $67.5 billion in assets including J.C. Penney shares. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 9:06:13 AM

If it wsn't for this event, we would be flying high once again. Merger news always reassures markets.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 9:05:35 AM

Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- International Business Machines Corp., the world's No. 2 software maker, agreed to buy FileNet Corp. for about $1.6 billion in cash to add software that helps businesses handle management procedures. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 9:04:44 AM

Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Target Corp., the No. 2 discount U.S. chain, said second-quarter profit rose 13 percent on higher food sales and revenue from the company's credit-card operations. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 9:02:59 AM

Remember how oil fell last time this happened in London. This is a foiled plot, but it puts the fear back in the markets.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 9:02:39 AM

The futures were staging a comeback but it lost steam real fast. As you can see ES was stopped right at its PDL. This market respects its PDR very nicely. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 9:01:38 AM

That is all we neded at this point. A terrorist event.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 8:59:51 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. initial jobless claims rose by 7,000 in the latest week as the number of people collecting state unemployment benefits over the past four weeks hit the highest level since March.

The four week average of continuing claims rose to 2.47 million, the highest since March 11, the Labor Department said Thursday. Seasonally adjusted first-time claims for unemployment benefits rose by 7,000 to 319,000 in the week ended August 5.

The four-week average of new claims, which smoothes out one-time factors such as weather or holidays, fell by 3,750 to 308,750.

The number of workers collecting jobless benefits rose by 48,000 to stand at 2.48 million in the week ended July 29

Marc Eckelberry : 8/10/2006 8:59:47 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
-3

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 8:59:08 AM

Here is why Oil has fallen.

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil prices fell Thursday after U.K. authorities apparently thwarted a plot to blow up as many as six airplanes flying to the U.S., raising concerns of a slowdown in air travel.

Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said the plot appeared to bear the hallmarks of an al-Qaida operation, but that it is still too early to tell for sure.

Crude for September delivery was last down $1.02, or 1.3% at $75.33 a barrel in electronic trading.

"The foiled terrorist plot has sparked ideas that in the near term there will be less demand for jet fuel," said Jim Wyckoff, analyst at TradingEducation.com. "But I think [the impact] is going to be short lived. We'll continue to see a bias toward firmer energy prices."

"We've got good demand, we have the Alaskan situation hanging over the market and the geopolitical tensions worldwide just point to a firmer liquid energy market for the immediate future and probably beyond. The days of $50 a barrel may not come back for some time."

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 8:56:44 AM

Gold took a hit overnight but not due to the overnight news because it started to fall around 8:30, however, it did not break its PDL. Overnight low has been 653.10

Once again we have Oil and Nat Gas are headed in opposite direction but this time it is Oil down and Nat Gas up. Oil overnight low was 75.275 and Nat Gas high was 7.895

Tbonds rose when the news hit the wires in a pure and simple flight to safety. Link

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 8:53:46 AM

You can see just about when the news of the terrorist plot hit the wires. All markets broke their respective PDLs but have reclaimed it except ES and ER so I don't expect a gap down this morning. Link

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 8:45:17 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. trade gap of goods and services narrowed in June, but only after a large upward revision to the previous month's deficit, a government report showed Thursday.

The nation's trade deficit narrowed 0.3% to $64.8 billion, the Commerce D

epartment said. Read full government report. The fact that the trade gap narrowed was unexpected. The May trade deficit was revised up to $65 billion, the second highest on record. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists had been for the deficit to widen to $64.5 billion from the initial May reading of $63.8 billion.

Despite all of the ups and downs, the trade gap is still on pace to set a new record in 2006. For the first six months of 2006 was $383.86 billion, up from a gap of $340.2 billion in the same period last year.

But economists believe the trade balance is stabilizing somewhat after years of steadily worsening.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 8:43:12 AM

Whoa what a busy night and all I was doing was sleeping.

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 8:38:16 AM

* INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE 7,000 TO 319,000
* 4-WEEK AVG INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 3,750 TO 308,750
* CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 48,000 TO 2.48 MILLION

Jane Fox : 8/10/2006 8:38:01 AM

* AVERAGE PRICE OF U.S. IMPORTED OIL SETS RECORD IN JUNE
* JUNE TRADE GAP WITH CHINA $19.7 BLN
* MAY TRADE GAP REV $65.0 BLN VS $63.8 PREV EST
* JUNE TRADE GAP ABOVE CONSENSUS OF $64.5 BLN
* JUNE TRADE GAP NARROWS 0.3% TO $64.8 BLN

Keene Little : 8/10/2006 8:26:52 AM

The news of the airliners bomb plot and arrests seems to have really spooked the futures. If we get a gap down that doesn't get immediately closed I'd say we have something a lot more bearish, at least short term, playing out. But remember what happened after the last London bombing--the futures were down hard and shortly before the cash open it started ramping hard and never looked back. A little PPT help? Remember, these guys are getting a lot more proactive in their "assistance" for the market.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 5:24:00 AM

Hey ... ES overnight low same as regular session low on 07/25/06

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 5:23:06 AM

NQ overnight low has been 1,483.50

ES overnight low has been 1,262.50

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 5:20:56 AM

YM off 33 at 11,083.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 5:20:33 AM

Had the radio on KOA (I "listen" to talk radio when I'm sleeping) and woke up and heard the news.

I'm going back to sleep.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 5:18:48 AM

News feed quiet now.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 5:14:53 AM

YM -39 ... 60-minute interval chart with regular session high/low/close DAILY/WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

The Red downward trend is from the regular session contract high back on 05/10/06 to regular session relative high on 07/07/06

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 4:41:26 AM

YM 11,071 .... session low still 11,046

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 4:40:43 AM

FTSE ... down 87.4 points, or -1.49% at 5,773.10 ... looks to be stable.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 4:31:08 AM

BAA Advises Only Essential Air Travel From Heathrow

DJ- U.K. airport operator BAA, a unit of Grupo Ferrovial SA (FER.MC), Thursday said it advised passengers only to attempt to fly from London's Heathrow airport if their journey was absolutely essential.

Tony Douglas, Chief Executive of the airport, said security measures at Heathrow and all other U.K. airports introduced Thursday after police foiled a bomb plot meant there are very serious delays occurring at Heathrow.

Airlines were canceling flights to Heathrow Thursday morning as congestion at the airport because of increased security measures blocked departure gates.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 4:29:38 AM

December Gold (gc06z) down $1.20 at $660.80 (30-minute delayed)

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 4:28:51 AM

September Crude down 71 cents at $75.64 (30-minute delayed)

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 4:27:18 AM

FTSE off 99 points, or -1.69% .... just found session low of 5,754.30

FTSE Index Detail Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 4:25:31 AM

YM ... -45 points at 11,071. Overnight low found at 11,146.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 4:24:00 AM

1.3M Evacuated Along China's SE Coast Ahead Of Typhoon

DJ- Authorities evacuated 1.3 million people from areas along China's southeast coast Thursday, ahead of the arrival of Typhoon Saomai, a state news agency reported.

At least 760,000 people were evacuated from flood-prone areas of Zhejiang province and 569,000 in neighboring Fujian province, the Xinhua News Agency said.

Saomai was expected to make landfall somewhere in the two provinces later Thursday.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 4:21:07 AM

Alert! U.S. Raises Threat Level Due To UK Terror Plot DJ- The U.S. government raised its threat warning to the highest level for commercial flights from the U.K. to the U.S. early Thursday in response to a reported terror plot in London and also stepped up the general level for all flights within the U.S. or entering the country.

"We believe that these arrests (in London) have significantly disrupted the threat, but we cannot be sure that the threat has been entirely eliminated or the plot completely thwarted," said Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff in announcing that the threat level for flights from the U.K. to the U.S. has been raised to the highest "severe or red" level.

"To defend further against any remaining threat from this plot, we will also raise the threat level to high, or orange, for all commercial aviation operating in or destined for the United States," Chertoff said.

A statement issued by Chertoff said "currently, there is no indication ... of plotting within the United States."

A senior U.S. counterterrorism official said authorities believe dozens of people - possibly as many as 50 - were involved in the plot that was uncovered around 10 p.m. EST Wednesday. The plan "had a footprint to al-Qaida back to it," said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation.

The plan involved airline passengers hiding masked explosives in carry-on luggage, the official said. "They were not yet sitting on an airplane," but were very close to traveling, the official said, calling the plot "the real deal."

Authorities have not yet arrested or detained all suspects who are believed to be involved in the plot, the official said, prompting Chertoff's alarm.

"Consistent with these higher threat levels, the Transportation Security Administration is coordinating with federal partners, airport authorities and commercial airlines on expanding the intensity of existing security requirements," Chertoff said.

"Due to the nature of the threat revealed by this investigation, we are prohibiting any liquids, including beverages, hair gels, and lotions from being carried on the airplane."

He said the changes take effect at 4 a.m. local time across the U.S.

Prime Minister Tony Blair's office said in London that the prime minister, vacationing in the Caribbean, had briefed President George W. Bush on the situation overnight.

There was no immediate public reaction from the White House. Bush is spending a few days at his ranch near Crawford, Texas.

"The United States and the United Kingdom are fully united and resolute in this effort and in our ongoing efforts to secure our respective homelands," said Chertoff.

It is believed to be the first time the red alert level in the Homeland Security warning system has been invoked, although there have been brief periods in the past when the orange level was applied.

Chertoff said travelers in the U.S. "should also anticipate additional security measures within the airport and at screening checkpoints."

"These measures will continue to assure that our aviation system remains safe and secure," Chertoff added. "Travelers should go about their plans confidently, while maintaining vigilance in their surroundings and exercising patience with screening and security officials."

U.S. authorities, including the Transportation Security Administration, planned a news briefing early Thursday.

In London, U.K. Home Secretary John Reid said the alleged plot was "significant" and that terrorists aimed to "bring down a number of aircraft through mid-flight explosions, causing a considerable loss of life."

Police arrested a number of people overnight in London after a major covert counterterrorism operation that had lasted several months, but did not immediately say how many.

The national threat level in the U.K. was raised to critical - a warning level that indicates the likelihood of an imminent terrorist attack. The threat rating was posted on the Web site of MI5 - the U.K. domestic spy agency.

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 4:18:13 AM

Air France-KLM: Cancels London-Bound Flights Until Noon

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 4:17:26 AM

Brussels Airport: All Flights To London Heathrow Canceled

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 4:16:20 AM

FTSE 100 ($FTSE) Link -93 points, or -1.60% at 5,766

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 4:11:39 AM

YM down 56 at 11,060

Jeff Bailey : 8/10/2006 4:11:19 AM

UK AIRPORTS STEP UP SECURITY AFTER BOMB PLOT FOILED

DJ- U.K. airports are on an unprecedented level of alert after police say they have foiled a plot to blow up aircraft in mid-air between the U.K. and U.S. BAA says its U.K. airports are likely to be extremely busy over the next few days and delays are likely due to additional security measures, including banning all hand luggage on flights. U.K. government says plot was designed to cause considerable loss of life. London stocks move lower on the news.

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