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Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 10:30:54 PM

Index Pivot Matrix for Monday at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 8/11/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 7:43:52 PM

Trade Blotter of CLOSED and OPEN trades that I've made. OPEN position STOP/TARGETS Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 7:34:35 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Today's Activity

Swing trade closed out yesterday's American Express (AXP) short at $51.52 ($+0.43/share, or +0.83%)

Then at 12:43:09 I issued a short setup for another short on American Express (AXP) and was filled at $51.85. Will use a tighter stop of $52.08, target $51.02 (will watch $51.25 again).

See some of today's Option Montage and "Max Pain" observations for AXP and other potential trade ideas.

Currently have an open order to SELL COVERED one (1) of the Deere, Co DE Aug $65 Puts (DE-TM) for $0.90 or better. This would be COVERED against the currently LONG DE-UO.

Note: Pink arrows at both DE-TM and prior SPY-TV. Over the years I've noted that options that trade $1.10 to $0.90 into an expiration (calls and puts), tend to go "poof" by expiration. I've seen some go $1.80 and much higher, so NEVER overleverage. However, if you're covered by a further out put/call, or have an underlying position your willing to get exercised should the call/put your selling of $0.90-$1.10, then with a week left in an expiration, sometimes they can be decent little income trades.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 6:54:26 PM

Might be OK on the AXP $51.80 -0.34% short for early next week.

WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivots $52.00/$51.89 need to hold early Monday morning. DAILY R1 $52.04

Still have WEEKLYS1/DAILY S2 $50.99/$50.95 as target support.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 6:36:25 PM

Trade Recap
Week: NQ +11 (+$220 per)
Open: Long INTC Jan 17.5 calls at 1.70, stop 16.95.

I left an NQ +40 trade on the table early in the week, but that is the way it goes sometimes.
NQ finished the day ahead of ES and YM, but the semis took it on the chin. That has to change for bulls next week.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 6:30:31 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 6:29:45 PM

Well of course they bid it right back up to 1496, 20 dma, at the close. I'll take it up Sunday night.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 5:31:45 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

NASDAQ had 5 more highs than Thursday, and 52 fewer lows. Monitoring the weakest, and seeing some stability considering today's price action.

Buyers stood their ground at MONTHLY $36.39 pivot retracement.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 5:02:57 PM

IWM $67.60 -1.02% ... is "furthest" away from its August "Max Pain Theory" value of $70.00 ($1 increments)

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 5:02:51 PM

Yep ... DIA $111.05

SPY $127.01

QQQQ $36.53 (split $36-$37 OI)

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 5:02:35 PM

Should check today's options chains and most actives. Look at how light volume was at both the NYSE and NASDAQ, yet volatility measures fell, as did PRICES.

Tie this in with some of my observations and trade in AXP today. Very, very, very OP-EX looking.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 4:44:41 PM

Murphy Oil (MUR) $50.54 +0.63% Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 4:44:18 PM

Frontier Oil (FTO) $36.66 +0.96% Link ... also see a "doji" from yesterday's trade, but moved to the UPSIDE today.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 4:43:41 PM

Valero (VLO) $64.84 -0.30% Link ... $64.84 extended, but rather quiet too.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 4:41:40 PM

Just seeing a "doji" on SUN's daily interval chart Link

SUN went out at $78.41 +1.27% ... no trade in extended.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 4:29:07 PM

Exxon Mobil (XOM) alert $69.73 +0.56% ... Declares force majeure on Prudhoe oil shipments.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 4:25:06 PM

S&P 500 Price/Earnings Ratio at 16.18, Down from 16.25

DJ- The price/earnings ratio of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index at the close of trading Friday was 16.18.

On Thursday, the ratio ended at 16.25.

The price/earnings ratio for the S&P 500 measures the index's closing level divided by the index's total earnings, as reported under generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP, for the most recent year.

In 2005, the most recently reported year, S&P 500 companies reported earnings of $78.28 a share.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 4:10:40 PM

Airlines got hit again today with many fearing international travel will abate.

I touched on this type of "market psychology" yesterday.

Tab Gilles : 8/11/2006 4:03:39 PM

Apple officially delays filing quarterly report By Matt Andrejczak, MarketWatch Last Update: 3:44 PM ET Aug 11, 2006 SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - Apple Computer Inc. said in a Friday filing to federal securities regulators it plans to restate past financial results due to issues related to its stock-option accounting, making official what the company said last week in a statement. Apple also reiterated it would delay filing its quarterly report, or 10-Q, for the quarter ended July 1, according to a document filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The technology giant also said it hasn't determined how big a charge it will take related to the options issue. Apple shares (AAPLApple Computer, Inc. News , chart, profile, more Delayed quote dataAdd to portfolio Analyst Create alertInsider Discuss Financials Sponsored by: AAPL ) fell 70 cents, or about 1%, to $63.37 in Friday trading. The filing contained some language that was confusing enough to prompt some Wall Street analysts to attempt to clarify the issue in notes written for their clients. The maker of Macintosh computers and iPod music players said in the filing "there will be significant changes in the results of operations for the quarter ended July 1, 2006 compared to the quarter ended June 25, 2005, including significant increases in the Company's revenue and expenses." While some interpreted that to mean Apple will restate results for the June quarter in a significant way, analysts said they don't believe there will be any changes to Apple's fiscal third-quarter results. Instead, because the SEC won't recognize the earnings report Apple filed last month as official until it files its 10-Q, Apple was using that language merely to describe its results for the quarter, one analyst wrote. "The reference to significantly higher revenues and expenses was merely a qualitative statement of fact, not a signal that results will differ from the recent earnings release," wrote J.P. Morgan analyst Bill Shope, who reiterated his overweight rating on Apple shares. Apple spokeswoman Katie Cotton told MarketWatch in an interview that the phrase "has nothing to do with our internal (options) investigation or the restatements." Still, when asked whether the company had ruled out restating results for its most recent quarter, Cotton referred to the the regulatory filing, which states that Apple "has not determined...which periods may require restatement." Last week, Apple said it planned to delay filing its quarterly report and would likely have to restate several years' results due to possible discrepancies in how it issued stock options between 1997 and 2001. "The company is focused on resolving these issues as quickly as possible," Apple said Friday in the SEC filing. Companies that find evidence that past stock option grants made to executives and other employees were backdated will be required to restate results to reflect higher compensation expenses for the periods in which the options were granted, according to Albert Meyer, an analyst with Bastiat Capital in Plano, Texas. Burgeoning scandal Apple is arguably the most high-profile technology company ensnared in the scandal over the backdating of employee stock options. The SEC and federal prosecutors in New York and Northern California are investigating dozens of companies over apparent discrepancies between when options were actually granted and when they were priced. In some cases, executives reaped immediate financial windfalls from grants that were priced just before huge run-ups in their company's shares. More than 70 companies have said they are conducting internal reviews of their past options practices, and some, like Apple, have said they plan to restate results based on those inquiries. In two cases, federal prosecutors have brought criminal fraud charges against company executives over backdating options. On Thursday, both the former chief executive officer and the human resources officer at Brocade Communications Inc. were indicted for a scheme to backdate stock options. Federal prosecutors said the executives gave employees favorably priced options without recording necessary compensation expenses. This week, former executives at Comverse Technology Inc. (CMVTComverse Technology Inc)

Matt Andrejczak is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 3:55:27 PM

Swing trade short entry alert ... For American Express (AXP) $51.85 (see 12:43:09)

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 3:54:13 PM

AXP $51.84 -0.26% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 3:53:36 PM

DIA $111.02 (see 02:44:40)

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 3:53:14 PM

YM 11,121

Keene Little : 8/11/2006 3:50:30 PM

ES is making a gallant effort to break its downtrend line. But it will need to hold above 1270 to make it a good retest on this little pullback. Two equal legs up from today's low is at 1271.50 which is where it just stalled. Let's see if this little engine can do it.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 3:34:00 PM

TICKS +1000 and 3 min CCi +210

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 3:33:20 PM

Juniper Networks (JNPR) $12.19 -5.50% Link ... getting it branches trimmed.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 3:32:30 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $19.55 -0.05% Link ... hanging tough.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 3:30:40 PM

TICKs reach +800 and hardly a blip on the charts.

Keene Little : 8/11/2006 3:17:24 PM

Resistance from the downtrend line for ES is now at 1270.50 and short term trend line support is at 1266. Any wagers we'll break either level? No, I don't think so either. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 3:13:32 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 3:02:09 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 2:59:27 PM

When we run out of oil and natural gas and can't power our homes in the future, we'll all be back to the graph paper and pencil methodology of charting stock prices.

Just like the good old days when Charles Dow charted his extensive portfolio of stocks.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 2:58:03 PM

Hey! Not much data feed problems with those PnF charts are there?

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 2:57:05 PM

Machinery & Tools Bullish % (BPMACH) at this Link

Dorsey/Wright classifies DE Link and CAT Link as "machinery & tool" stocks.

CAT follow DE and gives a reversing lower PnF sell signal today.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 2:54:03 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Andrew Leyden has the kind of job that many Americans dream about. From his home in Chesapeake Beach, Md., Leyden works under 40 hours a week running his free Web site, PodcastDirectory.com, while pulling in a sizeable chunk of cash from on-site advertising.

"Let's put it this way," he said. "I don't have to work a real job anymore."

Like Leyden, the goal of many workers is to be their own boss -- and it seems that more and more Americans are giving it a shot.

Heh that's me - working from home and my own boss. I wouldn't have it any other way - I LOVE IT!!!!

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 2:50:05 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Jason Smith, a grand juror in last year's Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. case, pleaded guilty Friday to charges of insider trading, conspiracy and contempt.

Investigators said Smith submitted his plea in a federal courthouse in Manhattan for allegedly leaking grand-jury information about the pharmaceutical firm to Eugene Plotkin and David Pajcin -- former Goldman Sachs Group employees charged in a scheme that apparently netted nearly $7 million.

Smith, who is 30, faces up to 25 years in prison, according to prosecutors.

The former postal worker was arrested May 11 after a nine-month investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Federal Bureau of Investigation, which resulted in 13 separate arrests.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 2:48:46 PM

Former Wal-Mart executive Thomas Coughlin is sentenced to 27 months of home confinement for theft and wire fraud.

Keene Little : 8/11/2006 2:46:32 PM

ES will hit its downtrend line from Wednesday's high at 1271. That could be the limit for any bounce today considering how lethargic it is.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 2:45:41 PM

AXP $51.52 -0.88% .... kind'a my "key stock" for scenario I was trading today.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 2:44:40 PM

Covering a YM short here at 11,097 in personal account.

DIA looks $111.00 to me.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 2:42:39 PM

Opps Bears watch out VIX to new daily lows!!!! May be time to close your shorts.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 2:40:54 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 2:34:04 PM

AD volume to new daily lows and I would not try any long positions here.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 2:33:01 PM

Let's do this with my risk managed MM Profiles ...

Let's place an order ALERT!

Place an order to sell one (1) of the Deere, Co DE Aug $65 Put (DE-TM) for a LIMIT price of $0.90.

This would OBLIGATE us to buy at $65 (that was my bear target for the current long put), but we would receive a decent little "dividend" of $0.90/contract.

Yes, we're only selling 1 for the MM profiles, but educational and a good idea in my opinion for those that may have larger accounts and trading multiple contracts.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 2:27:38 PM

Deere Co (DE) ... Assuming a close at $68.50 and using current weekly H/L.

WEEKLY Pivot Levels for next week would be ... $64.57, $66.54, Piv= $70.23, $72.20, $75.89.

So... for SELLING COVERED $65 Puts, that isn't all that bad of an idea (selling against WEEKLY S2)

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 2:25:59 PM

Now the TRIN as at least made a new daily high but the VIX continues to hold out.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 2:21:22 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures closed lower Friday and were down 1.8% on the week, as oil fell and the dollar strengthened, sapping demand for the precious metal. Gold for December delivery closed down $1.60 at $644.40 an ounce, after rising to as high as $655.80 early in the day.

"Strong resistance in front of $655 continues to cap gold short-term," said James Moore, metals analyst at TheBullionDesk.com. However, signs of physical interest during the European session are a positive indicator, "particularly ahead of the Indian festival/wedding season, with a period of relative price stability likely to encourage more interest."

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 2:11:50 PM

The Demand for Portable Media Players Market is Expected to Increase in 2007 and 2008

DJ- Research and Markets has announced the addition of Portable Media Players: Shipment Growth to Gain Traction in 2006 to their offering.

The year 2006 marks the first year in which we will see an uptick in consumer awareness of portable video. Market drivers include increased broadband access, more authorized video download sites, PMPs that can connect directly to PVRs in order to download video content, and an anticipated "true" Apple-branded PMP within the next year. In addition, consumer electronic heavy hitters, like Toshiba and Philips, have entered the PMP market. As a result, we expect that this awareness will lead to stronger PMP demand and increased shipment growth in 2007 and 2008. This report covers market drivers for PMP devices. It also takes an in-depth look at existing video content sites, PMP manufacturers and component suppliers. This report includes the results of a US consumer survey about the use of, and knowledge of, PMP devices; and finally, it provides five-year forecasts for worldwide PMP shipments and revenues, as well as average sales prices.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 2:08:35 PM

Intel (INTC) $17.48 -1.57% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 2:07:18 PM

Remember! When you play the "Max Pain" game, you have to pretend you're the MARKET MAKER of the options and pretend that the BULK of your trade blotter is SHORT the calls and puts. As such, you want to try and inflict as MUCH PAIN on the buyers of the calls/puts as you can, as long as supply/demand is in your favor.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 2:02:02 PM

Looking around for any other AXP-like trades among 1,2 and 3-lettered stocks. Ones that might "gravitate lower" to some max pain theory levels, that "makes sense" with their weekly Pivot Levels.

Probably find some good trade setups next week.

Be OPEN to finding some BULL candidates that are $1, or $2 below some HEAVY Put OI.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 1:54:55 PM

AXP $51.46 ... session low $51.19. That might be it for today.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 1:50:04 PM

Last year, just about the end of August, I paid $3.00/gallon for Diesel in Kremling, CO. Just after the hurricanes hit.

Still have that receipt as it was the first time I had ever paid $3.00.

Going to show that one to the kids someday.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 1:49:10 PM

Yesterday we had a discussion on "bear flags." Today I would like to show you two that played out and one we currently are in now. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 1:47:22 PM

Anyone notice that when the current month Unleaded futures comes anywhere close to $2.00 it firms, or bids?

Imagine driving down the street and seeing a sign "Unleaded $2.00/gallon."

Now those were the good old days!

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 1:44:29 PM

OXY $105.10 -0.54% ... c'mon... get away from MONTHLY Pivot ($104.99)

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 1:42:12 PM

E-mail idea ... Selling some covered puts and Deere, Co DE Aug $65 (DE-TM) against the long Sep $75 Puts.

I like it if you've got 5 or more. Now you're thinking!

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 1:38:06 PM

Watch for Wednesday's lows now to become resistance.

Keene Little : 8/11/2006 1:37:44 PM

It looks like we could have bullish divergences building as we test yesterday morning's low. If it holds this would be a good spot to buy it. At least you can keep your stop tight (just watch out for the head fake stop run).

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 1:37:39 PM

YM's daily lows so far 11072 PDL 11070.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 1:36:50 PM

NYSE MOST ACTIVE STOCKS: F EMC BMY ADI LU

NASDAQ MOST ACTIVE STOCKS: QQQQ CSCO JNPR INTC NVDA

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 1:36:07 PM

NASDAQ DECLINERS OUTNUMBER ADVANCERS 20 TO 7

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 1:30:56 PM

Didn't think they could get us at $51.52 before AXP went to at least $51.25.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 1:28:53 PM

YM comes to a skidding halt at PDLs.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 1:28:21 PM

Jeff there are some months the VIX is not affected by OPEX at all then others it is a great deal. I'm not sure the VIX's issues are due to OPEX though because I have never seen it this skiddy (new technical term) the week before. However, I have no other explanation.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 1:26:42 PM

NQ breaks to a new daily low.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 1:26:21 PM

Grrr.... AXP $51.20 -1.50%

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 1:26:01 PM

YM;s PDL is 11070.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 1:25:32 PM

Market continues to fall without the help of the VIX and TRIN. HMMMM. YM is now testing its PDL.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 1:24:38 PM

I will be jumping on some QQQQ puts when/if this triangle breaks. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 1:25:04 PM

See how the majors make new intra-day lows, but volatility measures aren't making new intra-day highs?

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 1:24:55 PM

VIX/VXN/VXO readings are not the best indicators of market direction near a OP-EX. Way to much sell some of this, buy some of that squaring going on.

Jane has mentioned it before that "it isn't working well today," and it is usually within 7 days of OP-EX.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 1:21:46 PM

One does not realize how much easier it is to trade when the internals line up until you have a week like we have just had.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 1:19:31 PM

Watching VIX and TRIN to see if they can make a new daily high but so far they have not and the bears are stopped once again.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 1:18:14 PM

Expect PDLs to provide support if/when the markets reach that level.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 1:17:46 PM

NQ is stubbornly holding on to Wednesday's low but I don;t think for long.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 1:16:55 PM

My goodness MACD has not been above 0 all day on any market!! Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 1:16:51 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 1:13:42 PM

Those dang ducks just do not want to get lined up this week.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 1:13:29 PM

For me to go out on a limb and say PDLs will break I need to have all my ducks in a row (internals all in sync).

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 1:11:20 PM

Dateline CNN - A spokesman for Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert says the expanded Israeli ground offensive in Lebanon has started, The Associated Press reports.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 1:10:51 PM

Anyone want to take bets PDLs are broken today. These two suggest that is a possibility. However, the VIX and TRIN do not. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 1:06:24 PM

Here comes my closing rebound, but they can play without me now. Be safe and tune in Sunday night, I will be attacking this pre-open if 1488 holds today.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 1:02:33 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 1:01:05 PM

Internals have been so hard to read this week. Some are bullish ane some are bearish.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 12:59:44 PM

CAT triggers the bearish triangle today. Last I looked sector was "bear correction." The bearish triangle is a powerful pattern for bears in a "bear confirmed" status.

The pattern is profitable for a bear 87.5% of the time, average gain 33.3% over an average time span of 2.5 months. (Purdue University)

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 12:57:23 PM

VIX and TRIN do NOT make new daily highs so once again don't expect too much follow through.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 12:56:44 PM

+0 for the day and that is where I am leaving things. See you Monday.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 12:56:40 PM

ES and YM to new daily lows.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 12:56:23 PM

TICK -800

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 12:56:23 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert
-1

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 12:57:16 PM

Something tells me we will rally out of this on Monday, but I am not holding a long over the weekend.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 12:47:18 PM

Guitar George is a BIG bear on CAT.

Meeeeow!

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 12:46:53 PM

The volume is soooo low I have to move to 1 mn.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 12:46:40 PM

ER is now using its WEdnesday's low as resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 12:46:18 PM

Jane! DE Link still pretty good ... CAT $66.75 -2.29% Link softening up.

Birds of a feather flock together!

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 12:43:09 PM

Bearish swing trade short setup alert ... let's look to short AXP again on a bounce back to $51.85.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 12:40:34 PM

Bearish swing trade short stop alert ... for AXP $51.52.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 12:35:21 PM

Either that or I am fooled by summer trading patterns.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 12:34:29 PM

The nature of this drop is starting to tell me we will get a short squeeze soon.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 12:33:02 PM

Those Wednesday's lows were indeed support for the large caps. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 12:32:48 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1489.75, raise stop to 1488.75.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 12:32:11 PM

+2 partial

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 12:31:37 PM

Come on, show me you are not as dumb as I think you are.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 12:29:56 PM

Will reason prevail?

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 12:29:29 PM

ICE $60.06 -2.32% ... surprised session high wasn't $62.50.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 12:29:20 PM

Jeff DE was a great short play!

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 12:28:57 PM

OXY $105.42 -0.24% ...

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 12:28:56 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. businesses' sales slowed sharply in June while inventories continued to grow, the Commerce Department said Friday.

With sales up 0.2% and inventories rising 0.8%, the inventory-to-sales ratio edged higher to 1.26 in June from the record-low 1.25 in May. The typical business had about 38 days of sales on hand in the back room, an extremely lean inventory.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting inventories to rise 0.6% in June.

In May, sales had increased 1.6% while inventories rose a revised 1.1%.

In the past year, sales are up 8.6%, while inventories are up 6.3%. The figures are not adjusted for price changes

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 12:28:22 PM

Deere, Co (DE) season ... $68.79 -1.81%

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 12:23:41 PM

AXP Option Montage at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 12:21:31 PM

NQ Entry Point Alert
Long 1489.75, stop 1487.75.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 12:20:54 PM

Should I trade this silliness? Support is holding.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 12:20:40 PM

The Feds care more about the job numbers than the retail sales, for crying out loud. They will protect the American worker if they see job loss. The fight against inflation is to protect wage earners, that is the rule: inflation hurts lower income. But it is balanced with employment. We are actually seeing signs of a soft landing: good retail sales, no recession there, but cooling labor market. As I said many times, the market is like a hysterical child..

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 12:15:23 PM

As I look at the AXP option montage for August, OI looks more like $51.25.

Keene Little : 8/11/2006 12:14:18 PM

Marc, saw your comment on the Santa Clara servers for QCharts. That's true for all the SC servers. Don't use the Miami (MIA) servers since they're dogs.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 12:06:20 PM

Of course, I should have left the stop at 1487, but I am done today anyway. Next week, we will pick it up and opex should drive us higher. If QQQQ loses 36, it will be a massacre as put sellers cover. I don;t see thathappening, but watch that level. My guess is QQQQ 37.50/38, but I will trade it by the inch.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 12:01:58 PM

We are out and flat for the weekend. SOX is too weak.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 12:01:21 PM

NQ Exit Point Alert
+1

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 12:00:57 PM

Thanks Jane and Denise. I will wait a little longer to switch. I really am very used to Qcharts and if they get better, I will stay with them. But they need to step on it.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 12:00:47 PM

I don't expect NQ to break my line in the sand today. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 11:59:00 AM

We survived this blast for now. Stop is still at 1488.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 11:58:12 AM

Large caps now testing Wednesday's lows. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 11:57:58 AM

I'm on sc 06 right now and it works well.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 11:57:21 AM

A note from a friend to stick with Santa Clara 06 to 08 servers on Qcharts. Works better.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 11:56:30 AM

TRIN is also not making new daily highs so don't expect a watershed.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 11:56:29 AM

GLD $62.37 -1.37% ... testing near-term upward trend (06/14 relative low to recent 07/24 relative low)

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 11:56:02 AM

bbuuuutttt AD volume is making new daily lows and the AD line is -1279.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 11:55:34 AM

ES slips to a new daily low but the VIX is not making new daily highs so you know the drill.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 11:55:00 AM

E-signal is a great charting platform.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 11:53:23 AM

This just in from Denise "Please post this or give to Marc or both re q charts--e signal just told me they are in process of integrating, refining and enhancing it to make it better and expect to have those changes finished by early oct. They welcome feedback at clientservices@mail.esignal.com."

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 11:52:23 AM

Simple enough $ Up Gold Down. Link

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 11:48:19 AM

I would be taking an exit stage left on Gold now! Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 11:47:56 AM

AXP $51.39 -1.13%

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 11:49:10 AM

Analog devices is hurting semis. If SOX and SMH lose it, it's over so watch it carefully now. AAPL option grants not helping, but the real issue is semis.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 11:46:57 AM

My "plot" now revealed ... I don't think we get WEEKLY S2 $50.67 today.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 11:46:04 AM

AXP's August "Max Pain" theory is $50.00 ($2.50 inc)

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 11:43:12 AM

Swing trade short lower stop alert ... for AXP $51.42 -1.07% ... to $51.52.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 11:37:23 AM

AXP $51.44 ... if it loses DAILY S2 ($51.43), the 80.9% WEEKLY Pivot retracement is $51.25.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 11:32:10 AM

TRIN and VIX going in opposite directions is a sure sign to not trade! Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 11:31:37 AM

Right? ... right ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 11:30:45 AM

AXP $51.46 -1.00% ... trades WEEKLY S1. Looking "squared up" with the INDU -0.31%.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 11:29:51 AM

Jeff what is a cheater's trend?

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 11:29:15 AM

Oil is finding support at its 100EMA. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 11:29:10 AM

GLD $62.97 -0.44% ... gett'n whacked. WEEKLY S1 $62.73. Traded WEEKLY Pivot ($63.97) earlier this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 11:27:05 AM

Thats a "cheater's trend" Jane (grin)

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 11:26:43 AM

Nat GAs is also falling below its support. Link

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 11:25:06 AM

Here is a look at Gold (using the 100 oz. emini) on the 240 minute chart. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 11:24:55 AM

Updated Aug. Max Pain Theory Values

DIA $111.00 ($1 increments)

SPY $127.00 ($1 inc)

QQQQ $37.00 ($1 inc)

SMH $30 ($2.50 inc)

IWM $70.00 ($1 inc)

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 11:23:16 AM

Gold is taking a beating here but is finding support at its PDLs. HMMMM

Keene Little : 8/11/2006 11:20:42 AM

Marc, I'm on a slow connection while trading in my "northern office" so I'm never sure if it's my connection or if it's QCharts. But yesterday I'm pretty sure I was struggling with QCharts--never could find a good server (until after the market closed of course). I've threatened to drop this program countless times but unfortunately it's got the tools I most often use, especially Fib retracements and projections. Most have retracements but I can't find others with the same projections capability.

I also find trend lines, changing scales (and not affecting trend lines), moving charts around in the window, all those little things that are hard to find elsewhere. Otherwise this program would have been history years ago. I'm afraid eSignal is just going to make it worse and then charge more for it. That'll get me moving faster in replacing it (and not with eSignal).

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 11:20:31 AM

DIA $111.00 -0.27% .... Op-Ex looking.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 11:18:12 AM

$70.00 ... Deere, Co jumping back and forth that strike this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 11:16:53 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Thursday's Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 11:05:30 AM

VIX hugging daily lows is bullish but AD volume making new daily lows will not let me go long. AD line is also at -1158. Mixed internals puts me on the sidelines.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 11:02:48 AM

Keene, how is your Qchart behaving lately?

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 11:02:19 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 10:56:42 AM

"Financials" in the U.S. Market Watch modestly positive.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 10:55:59 AM

1,000 share trader in AXP ... I'd look to take 1/2 off the table at $51.50, then defend any abounce back near $51.88.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 10:52:17 AM

AXP $51.57 -0.78% ... set to test correlative WEEKLY S1 ($51.46)/DAILY S2 ($51.43)

Keene Little : 8/11/2006 10:49:25 AM

Each chart I study leaves me wanting more, as in more information. I could make the argument for a bearish play and one for a bullish play. This is a mess and other than my credit spreads I'm on the sidelines. It's just not worth my, or your, money in this market right now. There are clearly better times to trade and knowing that differentiates good traders from gamblers.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 10:48:01 AM

And I know it inside out, as well as Qcharts. That's the problem.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 10:46:20 AM

I like IB too much, Jane.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 10:43:38 AM

MSFT $24.32 -0.57% ... after kiss of weekly pivot ($24.21) ... 3rd time this week.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 10:41:43 AM

You'd think I am getting a finders fee for TS. Nope just really like its data integrity.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 10:41:36 AM

VXN red. QQV and VIX still green.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 10:41:04 AM

VXN 20.62 -1.15% ... more call buying/put selling than call selling/put buying.

QQQQ $36.66 -0.35% ...

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 10:40:48 AM

Tradestation is no where near as pretty but its data feed is the industry's best. Of course it is $199/mo. but if you have a brokerage account and do only 10 futures trade a month your charts are FREE!

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 10:40:11 AM

How many times will I pound this: techs is the place to rotate into.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 10:39:23 AM

Techs are leading, of course, as they have now for days.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 10:40:43 AM

Anyway, here is the bid above pivot and bulls get it back.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 10:38:43 AM

Right now, I spend $150 a month for garbage. Its great for ease of use and I can really get into a chart with it, but how can you trade with this thing now that it is EVEN WORSE???

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 10:38:14 AM

Marc I believe Linda now uses QuoteTracker - the charts that Jonathan used. Not sure which feed she uses however. She has told me but my addled brain has forgotten.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 10:37:23 AM

I hate the e-signal software, but I like their feed, which is why I am consdering this move to StockWatch Pro. $39 a month, plus the feed.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 10:36:34 AM

what does she use?

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 10:36:04 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 10:35:52 AM

The only reason I still use Qcharts is live put to call (now even that is getting bad) and all the seperate ADVDEC lines, NQ, NYSE, DOW etc...

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 10:34:17 AM

I keep in touch with Linda and I know she no longer uses Qcharts.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 10:32:36 AM

Here is how the markets are trading in relation to their PDRs. I have also placed a trendline on Wednesday's lows because I think those lows will come into play today. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 10:32:27 AM

They are tryng to introduce a bunch of extra fees just like E-signal and that is REALLY irking me. My recommendation pretty soon will be for those who like the Qchart interface, to get the basic E-signal feed and use StockWatch Pro software, which is very much like Qcharts, and is actually superior in many ways. I am going to do it pretty soon. Sick of this. Here is the link: Link I used it years ago, and I might just go back. It's very good sofware, gives you pivots at no extra charge and you can program any tparameter you want. Just don't use the Qchart feeds, unless you are doing the free trial and want to test first. I am giving Qcharts a few more days, then I make the switch.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 10:30:54 AM

Bearish swing trade short lower stop alert ... for American Express (AXP) $51.64 -0.65% ... to break even.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 10:30:17 AM

Nat GAs and Oil have now broken their overnight lows (based on a 9:30 EDT open) and are making new daily lows.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 10:29:24 AM

Gold's sideways move is bullish and I think a long here with a stop just under yesterday's lows would be a very good play. Make sure you understand how much you are going to risk if using the futures and which emini to use - there are 2 gold eminis and their charts differ. I use ZG which is the 100 oz. emini and is $100/point per contract. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 10:26:42 AM

If anyone else is having problems with QChart feed these days (other than the ususal), let me know.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 10:26:38 AM

Heated debate on CNBC (Airport Security)

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 10:23:56 AM

Ford Motor (F) $7.60 +2.40% ... Gets a trade at 200-day SMA.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 10:21:34 AM

Bid at 1492 and that should be it for lows. Price is what matters and 1488.75 held up.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 10:20:47 AM

I am having server problems with Qcharts )(*&(*^)*&^

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 10:20:10 AM

10:17 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 8/11/2006 10:20:09 AM

I'm back. With the choppy climb yesterday, this pullback was expected. What I don't know is whether it will amount to anything significant to the downside or will instead just be part of a larger upward choppy move. ES and YM are currently hitting their 62% retracemnents of yesterday's "rally" so it should hold here if there's more upside work to do. Otherwise look for new lows.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 10:19:28 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Evercore Partners Inc., wielding the star power of senior officers Roger Altman and Austin Beutner, sparkled in its stock market debut on Friday by trading about 20% above its IPO price.

Evercore Partners (EVR) opened at $25 a share, above its price of $21 a share. The stock changed hands at $25 a share on morning volume of 700,000.

Signs of a strong debut came as it priced above its $18-$20 price range, with proceeds of $83 million by selling 3.95 million shares, fresh after vaulting into the top ten of the merger and acquisition advisory league tables this ye

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 10:18:09 AM

NYSE DECLINERS OUTNUMBER ADVANCERS 19 TO 9
* NASDAQ DECLINERS OUTNUMBER ADVANCERS 17 TO 7

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 10:17:57 AM

If it wasn't for the London event, we would have had a fierce rally yesterday, much stronger than the one we got. That is the way the dice rolls, nothing we can do about it. But I expect today's lows to hold for NQ now. The action was choppy to the downside and does not suggest a breakdown yet.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 10:17:07 AM

So the VIX did tell us that ES's daily lows will hold and the VIX gets back into my good books.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 10:16:10 AM

SMH finds support once again at 20 dma. This would be considered a healthy pullback from slightly oversold conditions, but we had that event yesterday and no one wants a long over the weekend on top of it.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 10:14:44 AM

It's so easy with this volume to exagerate any move and that is what they are doing. There is absolutely no reason to dump techs. NVDA is back up above 22.50, even on the option problem. Business is good, stay with techs.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 10:13:47 AM

TICKS daily high so far has been +465 - now that is bearish.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 10:11:53 AM

AD line is -1340 and AD volume falling to new daily lows. I never go long if the AD volume is falling to new daily lows.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 10:10:21 AM

If stopped, no more trades today. If this acts as support, we will exit on a bounce as I have no intenton on leaving anyone long over the weekend, other than INTC Jan leaps.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 10:09:36 AM

ES just made a new daily without the VIX making a new daily high but I have seen the VIX lagging today so I will not make the assumption that those lows will not hold.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 10:09:28 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1487, stop 1488.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 10:09:05 AM

1488.75/1489 is coming and that is it.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 10:05:22 AM

Sorry, I posted the wrong chart , I put up oil, correcting this now. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 10:03:21 AM

Bulls hold on to the area above 1488.75. This is good, but we now need a bid at 1492 support from yesterday morning.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 10:02:35 AM

Here is a daily chart of ER and it remains bearish. I suspect some good support at yearly lows 671.20 if/when we get there. Link

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 10:00:53 AM

ER found support from Wednesday's lows so the other markets may find support there as well. Those levels are:
ES - 1268.25
YM - 11094
NQ - 1488.75

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 9:58:32 AM

Ok VIX has now spiked to a new daily high confirming ES's new daily low. I see the VIX lagging today.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 10:04:59 AM

NQ 30 mn bband right at 61.8% 1488.75. Still my line in the sand today. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 9:55:27 AM

Shorts win, gap close sealed it. Now we either chop around or breakdown. Watch 1492.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 9:54:19 AM

NQ remains in its triangle and as Marc stated a selloff to 1486 would not be nice but I see the low made on August 8th at 1482 as the line in the sand for me. This would be a clear break of the triangle. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 9:52:31 AM

Summer Friday before Opex. Can't get any worse for a trader.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 9:51:54 AM

Oh I think this is going to be a long day with no clear direction. Internals are mixed with AD line and volume bearish and VIX and TRIN bullish.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 9:51:45 AM

1492 breaks, we have 1488.75, then 1486.25. Bulls cannot afford a third test of weekly S1 (1486.25). That would be catastrophic. In that sense, I would consider 1488.75 the line in the sand.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 9:50:25 AM

NQ closes the gap, here come the shorts, let's see what they've got.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 9:48:48 AM

VIX making new daily lows suggest ES new daily highs.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 9:47:08 AM

INTC green. We are having pivot noise for NQ here.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 9:46:02 AM

These opening reversal that are counter-trend are not reliable until support holds so stops should be moved up if you played it. Since we got in yesterday at 1487, no need for now.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 9:44:57 AM

there is the reversal, ticks were clear. (I'll get in to that another day, I already discussed this bread and butter trade before). Watch 1495/1496 support now.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 9:44:38 AM

ER finds support at WEdnesday daily low 681.80

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 9:42:23 AM

AD line is now -1243 and volume falling but the VIX and TRIN remain neutral to bullish.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 9:40:47 AM

SOX down on NVDA, but that news is about option grants. Sales were fine. Watch SMH 10 dma at 31.19.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 9:39:42 AM

TRINNQ .49.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 9:38:56 AM

We should get an opening reversal soon. Watch for tick divergences.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 9:37:53 AM

E-signal has decided to torpedo Qcharts. I am getting drops in feed, now they are announcing fees for some delayed stuff, SOX is not even on there. They are going to lose my business pretty soon, but it kills me to go to E-signal, if that is their intent.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 9:37:07 AM

Opps the bears have gained control AD line is -950 and AD volume falling However, VIX and TRIN are still quite neutral.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 9:35:12 AM

Let's see if they short 1495/1496.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 9:34:51 AM

We should hold 1492, but this brek of pivot and 20 dma warrants a temporary stop move.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 9:34:01 AM

NQ Exit Point Alert
Long 1487, lower stop to even for now.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 9:32:41 AM

VIX open mid range to is PDR and TRIN opens below its PDL. So a fairly neutral open with neither the bulls nor the bears clearly in control.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 9:31:40 AM

Oil looks bearish below 75/76: Link

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 9:31:34 AM

All markets gap down but the AD line at -296 is not overly bearish. AD volume is just slightly below 0.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 9:20:52 AM

Does it look like the 50EMA is now ES's resistance? In any case the confluence of the 100 and 200EMA at 1280 should be quite difficult for the bulls to penetrate. Then of course there is the swing highs at 1290. This is not a bullish chart but on the other hand has not yet turned really bearish. I did say that a close below the 50EMA was quite bearish but I will have to revise that statement and say it is not bullish. Link

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 9:16:13 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- BetOnSports said Friday it will abandon its U.S. business in a move that analysts think could spell the end of the line for the beleaguered U.K. online gaming operator. BetOnSports (UK:BSS) said that, in light of the temporary restraining order and indictment it is facing, its U.S. operations are no longer viable and it will close its offices in Costa Rica and Antigua as soon as possible.

The company, along with its founder Gary Kaplan and former CEO David Carruthers, is accused of illegally accepting sports bets from U.S. customers. See archived story.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 9:15:01 AM

Dateline WSJ - The Federal Reserve cited moderating growth when it paused its rate-increase campaign this week, and concerns about the economic outlook seem to be growing among economists.

This month's WSJ.com economic forecasting survey showed projections for gross domestic product and employment growth were cut, while forecasts for consumer prices and oil prices were lifted. Economists continued to nudge higher their estimates of the probability of a recession over the next 12 months; on average, they put the likelihood at 26%, up from 20% in June and just 15% in February.

Economists, on average, forecast GDP growth at a 2.8% annual rate for the third quarter, the first time their forecast for that quarter has been under 3% since the economic forecasting survey first asked about the period in November 2005. While their forecast is slightly above the 2.5% real GDP growth recorded in the second quarter, it is well below the 5.6% growth in the first quarter and average annual growth rate of 3.2% from 2003 to 2005. The economists forecast growth slowing to a 2.6% rate in the fourth quarter, and staying at that rate for the first half of 2007. GDP is the broadest measure of economic output.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 9:12:51 AM

A bunch of companies who can't seem to file reports on time are getting knocked around in premarket action. Shares of Apple Computer were slipping after the company said Friday it would have to delay filing its latest quarterly results with the SEC because it expects to make major changes to its previously reported numbers to account for stock-option-grant troubles. The stock was down 2% on Inet and was one of the most actively traded. Graphics processor manufacturer Nividia was also down, and for similar reasons. Shares of the stock lost 8% after the company delayed its quarterly results after an audit committee found problems with the accounting for some past stock-option grants. And Parlux Fragrances, maker of designer perfume brands for Paris Hilton and other stars, tumbled nearly 35% after it also delayed its quarterly SEC filing and warned of a sharp drop in profit. Law Blog has written about Parlux here, and MarketBeat has written about it three other times. Shares of travel and resort company Intrawest were up 28% after the company agreed to be acquired by Fortress Investment Group LLC in a transaction worth roughly $2.8 billion, including debt assumption.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 9:10:55 AM

Dateline WSJ - NEW YORK -- Brazilian mining giant Companhia Vale do Rio Doce is set to launch an all-cash, 17 billion Canadian dollars (US$15.1 billion) bid for Canadian nickel miner Inco Ltd., adding a sixth player to a monthslong mining merger free-for-all.

CVRD said it will offer C$86 per share of Inco, which yesterday was trading just above those levels on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

Such an offer could prove a debilitating blow to Canadian mining company Teck Cominco Inc., whose cash-and-stock offer -- apparently favored by Inco shareholders -- was valued yesterday at just above C$86.

The offer could also eliminate Arizona-based miner Phelps Dodge Corp. from the running, whose stock-heavy offer for Inco has failed to gather wide support from Inco holders. Inco's board continues to recommend the Phelps offer to its own holders, but Inco holders are more focused on Teck's bid, which was recently sweetened to include C$40 in cash, nearly twice that of Phelps's bid.

Cash is seen as an important inoculation against highly volatile swings in prices for such commodities as nickel and zinc. And CVRD, based in Rio de Janeiro, certainly has the financial wherewithal to pull off an all-cash deal. The company has a market capitalization of US$55 billion, and about US$5 billion in existing debt. By comparison, Phelps Dodge has an US$18 billion market capitalization and Teck a US$14.6 billion market value.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 9:10:26 AM

I think what it is doing, more than rates, is giving ammo for oil bulls as they see the consumer still going strong. So the weakness in NQ could be more attributed to oil rising once again. Typical bear market behavior.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 9:08:51 AM

This should help gold.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 9:08:08 AM

Confirms the bullsih numbrs from Target, JC Penney and Kohl. Should we really be so bearish? Mmm.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 9:06:32 AM

NQ found exact support at 20 dma. Stop stays at 1491, I might lower a little.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/11/2006 9:07:31 AM

Retail sales rise more than expected and futures drop a little. Guys, you have to figure out what you want, ok? You sell it when the economc news is good and sell it when it is bad. This is good news, forget the Feds, that is next month. Jeez.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 8:59:03 AM

Oil has dropped very nicely over the last few days but recovered some of that drop overnight. Unfortunately the recovery as only been to the 23.60% fib level and may just be a bear flag, or building a downward continuation pattern. No matter what you think of the pattern I would not try shorting this market. Oil's overnight high was 74.80

Gold has also tried to make a recovery overnight and has made it to the 38.20% fib level but is now making new overnight lows as I type. Gold's overnight high was 653.20

Nat Gas had a nice rally overnight but has retraced almost 100% of it and just about to test overnight lows. Gas overnight high was 7.680

Tbonds reacted to the 8:30 data by breaking its PDL but has recovered somewhat. Link

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 8:49:13 AM

The futures reacted to the 8:30 data by making or testing overnight lows. ER made a new overnight high then retraced to make a new overnight low albeit not by much. All in all a very quiet overnight session and I expect it to carry over into the intraday session as well Link

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 8:41:44 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Prices of goods imported into the U.S. rose 0.9% in July on the back of high oil prices, the Labor Department said Friday.

Imported-petroleum prices rose 4.7% in the month, and are up 29.6% year-on-year. In contrast to June, the report less inflationary pressures outside of the energy sector.

Excluding the rise in petroleum prices, import prices fell 0.1% in July after rising 0.4% in June and jumping 0.7% in May. This is the first decline since March. Prices excluding petroleum are up 2.3% year-on-year.

The rise in import prices was just slightly larger than expected. According to a MarketWatch survey, economists forecast import prices to rise 0.8%

Import prices in June were revised down slightly to show no change from the initial estimate of a 0.1% rise.

Excluding all fuels, import prices fell 0.1%. It was the first decline since last November. Ex-fuel prices had surged 5.8% annualized over the past three months.

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 8:38:46 AM

* JULY IMPORT PRICES RISE 0.9% VS 0.8% EXPECTED
* JULY RETAIL SALES OF DURABLE GOODS STRONG
* JULY RETAIL SALES EX-CARS, EX-GAS UP 0.7%, 6-MONTH HIGH
* JULY RETAIL SALES STRONGEST IN 6 MONTHS
* . RETAIL SALES UP 4.8% YEAR-OVER-YEAR
* . JUNE RETAIL SALES REVISED LOWER TO -0.4% VS. -0.1%
* JULY AUTO SALES RISE 3.1%
* JULY RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS UP 1.0% VS. 0.5% EXPECTED
* JULY RETAIL SALES UP 1.4% VS. 0.8% EXPECTED

Jane Fox : 8/11/2006 8:38:37 AM

* JULY IMPORT NON-FUEL INDUSTRIAL SUPPLY PRICES DOWN 0.8%
* DROP IN JULY NON-PETROLEUM IMPORT PRICES FIRST SINCE MARCH
* JULY NON-PETROLEUM IMPORT PRICES DOWN 0.1%
* JULY PETROLEUM PRICES UP 4.7% VS 1.4 FALL IN JUNE
* JULY GASOLINE SALES UP 2.5%

Keene Little : 8/11/2006 8:23:20 AM

I was just reviewing my Market Wrap that was sent out last night and noticed all commentary just before the charts and for all the charts is missing. I've sent an email to RightSide Advisors to see if they can resend the report with all the missing commentary. Sorry about the snafu there.

Keene Little : 8/11/2006 8:16:53 AM

After a choppy rise yesterday and a flat overnight futures we may be set up for another choppy day. Look for crisp entries with tight stops so as to avoid giving much back today. I'll be out for the first hour or so by which time the market should at least give some clues for the rest of the day.

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 3:17:57 AM

EXPD $39.57 ... WEEKLY Pivot Levels are ... $35.45, $38.37 (close out those Aug $40's), Piv= $42.30 ("poof"), $45.23 (short!), $49.15.

DAILY Pivot Levels are ... $36.43, $38.00, Piv= $38.93, $40.50, $41.43

Jeff Bailey : 8/11/2006 3:04:16 AM

If you don't profit from your investment mistakes, someone else will. - Yale Hirsch

(see 10:45:04 PM)

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