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Keene Little : 8/14/2006 10:48:59 PM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 8/14/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 5:59:37 PM

Dell Computer (DELL) $21.24 +0.80% ... Alert ... stock dips to $21.00 extended on "recall news."

Company plans to recall more than 4 million computer batteries.

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 5:19:09 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 4:52:55 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 4:11:40 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPY $127.13

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 4:06:49 PM

Deere, Co (DE) $68.67 -0.57% Link ... earnings due to be released prior to tomorrow morning's opening bell.

AP Earnings Preview Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 4:01:39 PM

Swing trade sell covered put cancel order alert ... Please cancel the currently outstanding order to sell one (1) of the Deere, Co DE Aug $65 Puts (DE-TM) for $0.90, or better.

Keene Little : 8/14/2006 3:55:34 PM

ES appears to be holding at its uptrend line from the July 18th low, currently at 1271. Needless to say the bulls want to see this hold otherwise there's lots of air below.

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 3:54:19 PM

Economic Reports for tomorrow include:

8:30a.m. July Producer Price Index. Consensus: +0.4%. Previous: +0.5%.

8:30a.m. July PPI, Ex-Food & Energy. Consensus: +0.2%. Previous: +0.2%.

8:30a.m. Aug NY Fed MFG Index. Consensus: 14.0. Previous: 15.64.

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 3:52:58 PM

WSJ Alert - President Bush defends democracy push, says war between Israel and Hezbollah was "part of a broader struggle between freedom and terror."

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 3:44:10 PM

I have marked where the gap filled on all four markets. Link

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 3:38:44 PM

My goodness are we going to test PDLs today? I would have never thought that possible.

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 3:40:10 PM

This morning I thought ES could make it back to about 1290 which would have set up a nice short but Mr. Market had other ideas. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 3:15:28 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 8/14/2006 3:10:21 PM

ES has closed its gap (1272.50) which I did not expect today after seeing the convincing (?) break of the downtrend line. This is just more evidence of the continuing chop we've been in and why I'm recommending flat is a good position. Choppy price action means whipsaws means loss of money. I'd rather wait for things to clear up. And now the decline is continuing as I type. Poor bulls, they just can't get this to rally.

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 3:02:44 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 3:01:30 PM

ES and YM have now closed their gaps and the rally that I thought would allow us a better spot to short seems to have evaporated.

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 2:58:54 PM

Occidental Petroleum (OXY) $102.22 -2.81% ... loses morning lows of $102.27

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 2:56:53 PM

North American Telecom (XTC.X) 831.40 -0.04% ... slips red

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 2:56:07 PM

Broker/Dealer (XBD.X) 207/66 -0.18% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 2:55:37 PM

KBW Bank Index (BKX.X) 109.50 -0.17 ...

Marc Eckelberry : 8/14/2006 2:40:45 PM

Back for a sec. The market is not bullish or really that bearish, it is trading in a range and driven by technical traders on low volume. There is no trend because there is no volume. When it comes back, it will most likely be to the upside as people get off the sidlines after 3 months of selling, IF gas prices go down or stay down for a few weeks and rates don;t rise. Once you understand that, you either day trade/swing trade or buy leaps. No in between I;m afraid for now.

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 2:38:35 PM

YM 11,171 ... after slight undercut of WEEKLY Pivot (11,166)

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 2:33:50 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 2:27:31 PM

Swing trade put establish stop alert ... for the QQQ-UJ at $0.20/contract. Targeting $0.80/contract on or before expiration.

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 2:25:13 PM

This is just so typical in bear markets, even on good days the bulls cannot keep control. They are doing what ever possible just to keep their heads above water.

I seriously thought this week would be bullish before we resume the downtrend but this is telling me that may not be the case.

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 2:23:14 PM

And ES and YM retrace 100% of their daily range.

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 2:22:39 PM

My goodness TICK -800!

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 2:12:06 PM

AD line has fallen to +979 but still bullish.

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 2:12:18 PM

ES and YM have retraced more than 61.80% of their daily range and I have been stopped. This is a very good case for taking partials isn;t it?

NQ has retraced 50% and ER exactly 61.80%

Needless to say price is telling me time to out of long positions. Link

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 2:07:45 PM

ORCL seems to be bucking the trend of the NQ with a new 52-week high today but on a closer look you see some things that should be quite worrisome to the bulls. First of all the pattern I have shown on the price chart is a called a bearish wedge and is a topping pattern. Secondly the MACD is giving a bearish divergence on both the highs and the lows. May be a good time to exit long positions. Link

Keene Little : 8/14/2006 2:07:34 PM

ES is now dropping back down through the downtrend line. If it can't quickly get back above 1279 then the bears win this one.

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 2:00:00 PM

Nat Gas has to hold this support or yearly lows may be retested. However, one must remember there are outside forces that have a great deal of influence on the this market (weather, nat gas inventories, etc.) so one cannot rely entirely on the charts. Link

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 1:53:08 PM

Semis are bumping up against its 50EMA and have not been able to break through. Now refer back to the INTC chart and tell me if you think it will break through its 50EMA. Link

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 1:50:14 PM

Here is a stock that I would definitely be long when Gold resumes its upward trek. The caveat here is that I think the stock market is transitioning into a bear market which will put downward pressure on all stocks including the gold stocks. Link

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 1:47:58 PM

INTC broke out of its triangle but is running into the 50EMA and the July 28th swing high resistance. I got out of my INTC puts when that triangle broke but would certainly not be long. Link

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 1:45:16 PM

Here is another stock that I like short but the problem here is that a stop should probably be above the 50 and 100EMA confluence at 390, quite a ways off. Link

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 1:43:06 PM

These are telling me there is no reason to get out of my ES long. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 1:33:05 PM

QQQQ $37.12 +1.61% ... 60-minute interval chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 1:28:04 PM

Es's overnight highs were 1280 and should find support here.

Keene Little : 8/14/2006 1:25:09 PM

The pullback so far looks of the sideways/down variety which should mean it will continue higher once the pullback is complete. That broken downtrend line is at 1279 and will be at 1278 later today so a pullback to there would be a nice setup to try a long.

For the bears, we've had a 3-wave move to the upside from the low on Aug 10th and if that move was just a correction to the start of something bigger to the downside then you'll want to be short. The choppiness of the past month makes it very difficult to get a bead on the larger direction. So for now we'll look at small moves and try to scalp them.

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 1:23:00 PM

QQQQ alert $37.10

QQQ-UJ $0.35 x $0.45

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 1:19:18 PM

QQQQ Put entry alert ... go long the QQQ-UJ at the current offer of $0.40.

QQQQ $37.15 +1.69%

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 1:15:26 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 1:02:17 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 12:52:56 PM

Here is a stock that you could probably short unfortunately though it is a petroleum stock and I'm not sure I would try shorting this sector quite yet. Link

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 12:46:46 PM


Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 12:35:34 PM

Swing trade put option setup alert for the QQQQ $37.20 +1.83% ...

On a QQQQ trade at $37.10 ... Let's buy five (5) of the QQQQ Sep $36 Puts (QQQ-UJ) for a LIMIT of $0.50. Currently bid/ask $0.35 x $0.40.

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 12:27:13 PM



Keene Little : 8/14/2006 12:03:22 PM

With a clearer break of the downtrend line now I'd like to see a pullback to it, near 1279 currently, that holds and that would be a good place to try the long side. This move may peter out soon which is why I wouldn't want to chase it higher from here.

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 12:03:41 PM

These agree. I love it when the internals are in sync!!! Link

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 12:01:53 PM

VIX is telling me the bulls still have a very good hold on control. Link

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 11:49:42 AM

Here is an update of the 240 minute NQ chart. This market will find some resistance at 1525 (magenta line) but will probably break through and make it all the way to 1540 where it will find major resistance that I suspect will hold. Link

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 11:46:31 AM

I see no reason to get out of my ES long.

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 11:44:29 AM

YM short stop alert 11,220

Keene Little : 8/14/2006 11:41:04 AM

ES has a tiny little break above its downtrend line and is now holding it. The longer it holds it here the more bullish it should become. But another push higher out of this may be followed by another slightly deeper pullback to retest the trend line so be careful about chasing it and then getting whipped out of your trade.

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 11:40:02 AM

YM short entry alert 11,212

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 11:36:00 AM

YM short setup alert go short the YM on a trade at 11,212, stop 11,220, target 11,197

YM 11,215

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 11:29:53 AM


Marc Eckelberry : 8/14/2006 11:27:36 AM

I have to step away, today has not been possible for me to enter trades in the monitor and do my own market activities. Watch SPX 1275.50.

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 11:27:13 AM



Marc Eckelberry : 8/14/2006 11:26:29 AM

Techs and small caps lead the charge.

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 11:26:27 AM

With BIX 378.74 still below WEEKLY Pivot, want to guard ANY bullish index gains.

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 11:25:20 AM

YM session high so far has been 11,225

Marc Eckelberry : 8/14/2006 11:25:14 AM

CSCO was also a pick up on weakness last week, but that gap is sure looking big.

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 11:24:37 AM

YM Bullish Stop alert 11,214

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 11:24:00 AM

YM long raise stop alert ... to 11,214

YM 11,217 here

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 11:18:51 AM

SPX NH/NL currently 20:1

Friday's tally 2:10

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 11:18:49 AM

I want to hang on my ES long for the day and will be monitoring the VIX, AD line and AD volume for signs the bulls are losing control. In the meantime my stop is at breakeven.

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 11:18:21 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/14/2006 11:18:52 AM

As I mentioned last week, you wanted to rotate into techs. Energy is on the verge of taking a major hit, except for Nat Gas so stay away from that sector. Ignore the talking heads.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/14/2006 11:17:01 AM

Unleaded gas 2.05. I still can't believe it. That QM (oil) premium will get busted soon and we could see 67/68 as we now lose support.

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 11:16:02 AM

VIX is supporting ES's new daily highs.

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 11:15:43 AM

Keene I think this breakout is the real thing and should propel the markets back to resistance on the daily charts. Later this week, or maybe next, we should be able to get short for a ride back to test yearly lows.

Keene Little : 8/14/2006 11:13:57 AM

If ES breaks its downtrend line here at 1280 then the next best trade will be a pullback to retest the broken trend line as an opportunity to get long.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/14/2006 11:13:15 AM

INTC 50 dma at 17.91 is getting close. I am not sure we will get above it today, but if the stock holds 17.75, it is possible.

Keene Little : 8/14/2006 11:11:25 AM

Breakout or fakeout? Brave ones should be shorting ES here at 1280 with a stop at 1282.

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 11:10:47 AM

It certainly took the bulls long enough to get things going YEESH!

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 11:09:35 AM

ES to new daily highs.

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 11:08:16 AM

YM Long entry alert here at 11,203, stop 11,180, target 11,240.

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 11:09:08 AM

Not sure I would fade today however because of the AD line and volume. I think direction is now becoming clearer.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/14/2006 11:05:50 AM

Watch SPX 10 monthly MA at 1275.50 It is the biggeest number of the day.

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 11:05:06 AM

TICKS hit +1000 and 3 min CCI is 204

Marc Eckelberry : 8/14/2006 11:04:38 AM


Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 11:04:37 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/14/2006 11:04:31 AM

Gold (October) did find suport at 50 dma, exactly. It will be the hedge going forward into tomorrow and Wednesday if long equities, especially small caps and techs. Should gold lose 627, the market might be telling us something about inflation going forward.

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 10:59:35 AM

ER breaks to a new daily high.

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 10:55:41 AM

Gold is finding support from a bearish $ and its 100EMA. I am still bullish on Gold. Link

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 10:53:40 AM

Gold bugs should be encouraged the greenback remians in a downtrend and is now finding resistance at its 50EMA. This should put a stop to Gold's decline. Link

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 10:50:23 AM

Crude is testing support today. Link

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 10:49:34 AM

TICKS reach +800 but prices hardly move.

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 10:47:21 AM

Natural Gas has broken its neutral triangle but is now finding support at its 50EMA. Notice that 7.44 level is the apex of the triangle. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/14/2006 10:45:05 AM

NQ weekly PP is 1501 and was the entry for buyers. The big deal is QU (unl.gas) dropping 3.85% to 2.05. The game is on for a labor day rally with lower gas prices and hopefully lower interest rates. The object is the November elections and Labor day happiness is key.
That's for the macro picture. As for today, we have important inflation data awaiting us tomorrow and Wednesday, so expect chop at some point.

Keene Little : 8/14/2006 10:43:34 AM

I'd still like to see ES test the 1280 level for an opportunity to try shorting it there. Until then it's hard to tell whether this will continue to sink and close the gap this morning or if it's just pulling back and getting ready for another push higher. I'm thinking another push higher before it then sells off again.

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 10:38:51 AM

The bulls biggest worry is a rising TRIN.

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 10:36:11 AM

McMillan's weekly commentary did not reach my desk until after the close on Friday so I will post it now.

The bulls have had all the news go their way, but they haven't done much with it. Both last Friday, when the unemployment report was announced, and then this Tuesday, when the Fed decided to pause in their rate-raising, bulls poured into the market immediately afterward. However, they were quickly sent scattering when large numbers of sellers showed up. $SPX actually traded above 1280 five different times and above 1290 once (actually trading at its highest price since May). However, it has not been able to close above 1280 even once! This has all the earmarks of the bulls expending their energy just to keep prices level. The bottom line is that the 1280-1290 resistance area on $SPX has held rather convincingly.

The equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, as they continue to climb. We are somewhat leery of reacting to put-call ratio signals when both the underlying market ($SPX) and the ratio itself are rising. There has clearly been massive put buying, but when one sees that in a rising market, it is usually attributable to hedging. In any case, these ratios are not on buy signals but are oversold in that they are nearing heir highs.

Market breadth (advances minus declines) has been poor. There have been many days of negative breadth, even though the market is near its highest prices since the decline began a couple of months ago.

Finally, the volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) have crept slightly higher, stabilizing in the 14-15 area. This is a bit negative, but not overly so. On more than one recent occasion, we have seen $VIX move higher during a dull or slightly bullish day -- and that proved to be a negative short-term signal. Right now, though, we'd rate the volatility indices as neutral.

In summary, we don't really have any recent buy signals ($VIX and breadth are stale buy signals). Moreover, with $SPX unable to break through overhead resistance, and the generally negative season of late August - September approaching, we are taking a bearish view of things. In addition, $SPX is now approaching the longest time in history (well, in the history of the S&P 500 anyway) without at least a 9% correction. While we realize that fact is not a timing indicator, is does show just how little selling has been done since 2003. Unfortunately, when this much bullishness is packed into the market, the release of that bullish energy is swift and nasty.

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 10:34:04 AM

I think ES will at least test daily highs and of course since I am long ES hope those highs will break.

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 10:33:01 AM

Isn't it interesting the ES is making lower lows and highs but YM is making higher lows and highs. Link

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 10:31:22 AM

I may have had my stop too close. Trying another ES long here.

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 10:29:14 AM

YM 15-minute interval chart at this Link

Keene Little : 8/14/2006 10:23:58 AM

We don't have a gap n crap but we sure got the pop n stop. After the opening high in futures the market has stalled. Now we wait to see who blinks first.

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 10:23:33 AM

Stopped on my ES long.

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 10:14:12 AM

I expected more bullishness than this.

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 10:12:06 AM

TICKS have not printed below -45 - this is bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 10:11:55 AM


DJ- Google drew the ire of media companies last year with audacious moves to search new information such as video and books. Now it is bringing traditional content owners like Viacom and News Corp. into its camp and sharing revenue with them.

GOOG $373.24 +1.28% Link

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 10:10:48 AM

I am going to try an ES long here with a stop just below daily lows at 1276.25.

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 10:10:21 AM


DJ- U.K. Home Secretary John Reid says that downgrading the attack threat level from critical to severe reflects intelligence indicating that an attack is not imminent, and is not in response to airport congestion and flight cancellations.

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 10:08:26 AM


DJ- Charles Schwab says its client daily average trades climb 15% from year ago levels, to 245,200, but they fell 5% from June 2006.

Meanwhile, Knight says its average daily equity trade volume in July 2006 is 775,000, down about 1% from 768,000 in July 2005.

SCHW $16.10 +1.51%

NITE $15.40 -0.77%

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 10:08:25 AM

Oil and Nat GAs break to new daily lows.

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 10:04:58 AM


DJ- Bear Stearns ups Ford two notches to outperform from underperform and cuts General Motors to underperform in anticipation of Ford restructuring news and doubting GM's sales-dependent recovery. Ford shares up 3%; GM slips 0.36%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 10:03:48 AM


DJ- Israeli Defense Minister says that barring isolated skirmishes with Hezbollah fighters, the U.N.-imposed cease-fire is holding in south Lebanon. Prime Minister Olmert takes sole responsibility for the offensive.

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 10:02:04 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 9:59:37 AM

Here is why I would not be short. Last post had the wrong chart. Link

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 9:57:58 AM

I would not be short here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 9:55:25 AM

DJ- REFINERS REJOICE: The continued flow of a portion of Prudhoe Bay is a boon to West Coast refiners, which rely on the Alaska North Slope crude oil grade extracted there to produce gasoline and other fuels. "Having that additional crude production from the western Prudhoe Bay could only be seen as a plus for the overall supply situation," said Mary Rose Brown, a spokeswoman for Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) San Antonio-based Valero, the U.S. largest refiner, operates a 144,000 barrels-a-day plant in Benicia, Calif. That processes 65,000 barrels a day of the grade of oil produced at Prudhoe Bay. "It's good news for the industry," said Tesoro Corp. (TSO) spokeswoman Natalie Silva. San Antonio-based Tesoro's two West Coast refineries run about 24,000 barrels of ANS crude, less than 10% of their throughput. All last week, refiners suggested they weren't having difficulty in sourcing alternative oil. BP itself bought 4.5 million barrels of oil on the open market.

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 9:54:54 AM

ES is making new daily lows but the VIX is not confirming.

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 9:53:24 AM

DJ- OIL ON THE WATER: In a move that seems intended to help offset production loss at Prudhoe Bay, Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSB.LN) has booked a panamax tanker to ship crude oil to the U.S. West Coast from China, shipbrokers said Monday. The oil major will load crude oil from the Zhoushan port on Aug. 30, and it will take about 18-20 days before the 50,000-metric-ton tanker arrives in the U.S., they said. Traders speculate the company may be sending Oman crude, which it keeps in Zhoushan.

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 9:50:06 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 9:49:04 AM

Looks like the bears are going to require the markets to at least partially fill these gaps. Link

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 9:34:16 AM

VIX opens below its PDL supporting the bullishness.

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 9:33:30 AM

AD line +1010 and AD volume above 0. The bulls have the ball and I suspect will keep it most of the day.

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 9:32:17 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - Apple Computer Inc. said late Friday that the Nasdaq Stock Market has warned the company its decision to delay filing its most-recent quarterly financial report puts Apple in violation of Nasdaq's stock-listing requirements.

The letter came on the same day Apple officially notified federal securities regulators that it would delay filing its quarterly report, or 10-Q, for the quarter ended July 1, until an outside legal counsel completes an investigation into how the company accounted for employee stock options.

The company reiterated to the Securities and Exchange Commission in Friday's filing what it had already revealed on Aug. 3, when it also said it would restate some past financial results based on an internal inquiry into options granted to executives and other employees between 1997 and 2001

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 9:32:12 AM

VIX 14.00

SPY $127.69

Jeff Bailey : 8/14/2006 9:31:35 AM

Swing trade short stop alert ... for American Express (AXP) $52.09 +0.55% ... after opening tick of $52.16

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 9:26:24 AM

Dateline WSJ - WASHINGTON -- The Bureau of Labor Statistics is contemplating a change in the widely followed consumer-price index that could have a big impact on how markets and policy makers interpret the latest inflation data.

The agency, part of the Department of Labor, is considering publishing the index and its subindexes to three decimal places instead of one, an agency official said. Doing so would greatly reduce the frequency with which rounding produces a misleading inflation rate.

No decision has been announced. If it goes ahead, the change would probably take effect early next year.

The consumer-price index is currently one of the most closely watched economic statistics on Wall Street because it is critical in the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decisions.

In recent months, markets have moved considerably depending on whether the monthly change in the index was 0.2% or 0.3%. (Investors and the Fed focus most closely on the "core" index, which excludes the volatile food and energy components.) July's figure is due out on Wednesday.

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 9:23:56 AM

Here is a look at NQ's triangle on a 240 minute chart. Link

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 9:21:32 AM

Now I must admit this chart is getting interesting. NQ is forming a neutral triangle and has tested the upper trendline overnight. If I believe we rally this week (obviously I do from my other posts) then indeed that triangle will break to the upside and this chart becomes bullish? Well now hold on - see the resistance at the downward trendline from June 2nd which is also the 50EMA? I think NQ could rally all the way back to around 1540 and I would still be bearish but in the meantime if this market breaks the triangle you could try a long and ride it to 1540 but just don't get married to the position and bail once NQ hits its resistance. Link

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 9:12:21 AM

There is really nothing bullish about this chart. It is forming a bearish triangle, price is below all major MAs, lower highs but like ES and YM I think this market could rally to the 50EMA around 705 to make one more lower high before another test of support at 671. Link

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 9:06:19 AM

Same story with YM but with different numbers. I think this market could rally all the way back to the 11340-11405 resistance zone but I don't think it will break it before testing support at 10722-10740. So just like ES it is best to be on sidelines unless you want to try a long to resistance then get short. Link

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 8:59:56 AM

ES is mostly in no man's land right now, certainly not bullish but you can't really say it is bearish either. The overnight high was right at the 200EMA and overnight low at the 50. I think this market could get enough steam this week to revisit the lower magenta trendline or even the 1290-1304 resistance zone but I don't think the bulls will be able to break that zone. i.e. I concur with Keene and it is best to be on the sidelines here - or in credit spreads. Link

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 8:52:49 AM

On the other hand the three commodities I watch and Tbonds were all bearish and all broke their PRLs.

Oil's overnight low was 72.90

Gold's overnight low was 634.20 Link

Jane Fox : 8/14/2006 8:48:49 AM

Good morning all. It was a bullish overnight session with only ER not breaking its PDH. Link

Keene Little : 8/14/2006 8:06:41 AM

The premarket high so far is 1280 which is right where the downtrend line from Aug 4th (top of a bull flag?) is located this morning. Until it breaks above this line that makes for a good place to try a short play. If futures pull back into the cash open I would watch for a retest of that 1280 high and short it. Keep your stop at 1282 and see if it works.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/14/2006 4:03:18 AM

Not getting anything yet. Should happen pre-open.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/14/2006 3:48:28 AM

Alert: let's see if we get the drop now

Marc Eckelberry : 8/14/2006 3:27:48 AM

This takes the cake:
Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- UnitedHealth Group Inc. Chairman William McGuire sparked outrage among some stockholders over his $1.8 billion in potential stock-option gains. Turns out, the board of directors that granted those options got a share of the wealth, too. Link

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