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Keene Little : 8/17/2006 11:42:17 PM

Before the market opened on Thursday I had posted a 30-min chart for ES that showed an ascending wedge and mentioned it should break down. Well, it did but it didn't. It broke below the steep uptrend line but then got pushed up into the afternoon just under that broken uptrend line. It looks like the Boyz and their money were determined not to let this pull back before getting what they wanted into expiration for the European settled options (SPX and RUT for example). Then they let it go in the afternoon. It will now be interesting to see if SPX settles above 1300 on Friday morning. Link

Interestingly, if I draw in a parallel line to the one along the highs of the past few days, that's where price found support Thursday afternoon. It's possible we're in an up-channel and the rally is not finished yet. I'd like to see a break below Thursday's 1297.50 low before getting excited about a short play. Besides, with opex Fridays typically being a nothing day, I don't anticipate a whole lot of action.

Keene Little : 8/17/2006 11:31:45 PM

Friday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 8/17/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Tab Gilles : 8/17/2006 9:48:03 PM

ABC NEWS REPORTING: North Korea about to test nuclear weapon!!! This news and OpEx tomorrow... Link

Tab Gilles : 8/17/2006 8:38:11 PM

Dell Posts 51% Decline Amid Probe Link Link Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 8:29:36 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Today's Activity

Day traded long a full position in shares of Continental Airlines (CAL) at $24.12 (target= $24.80), but was stopped out at $23.93. ($-0.19/share, or -0.79%)

Commented on Treasury YIELDs, Dollar Index, various "gold stocks" and decided to take the profits and run for the short in the StreetTracks Gold (GLD) at $61.11. ($3.11/share, or +4.84%)

Tab Gilles : 8/17/2006 8:21:55 PM

Profund UltraOTC UOPIX & UltraSmall Cap UAPIX Link Link

$NASI Link Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 7:40:36 PM

Bearish & Bullish Candlestick Patterns Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 7:14:12 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 6:54:01 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link ... getting a little bounce from oil.

Sept Crude (cl06u) settled down $1.83, or -2.55% at $70.06.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/17/2006 6:28:52 PM

The AMD DELL news will be a sell on the news for AMD. INTC has relief in that none of their line is being replaced. AMD is just added as an option. Nevertheless, I picked up some INTC 17.5 Sep puts at .20 as insurance against the Jan 17.5 call, at 2.10. INTC is still the leader with better margins and should pull through in the price wars.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 5:06:29 PM

LTR $36.93 +0.29% ... $36.90 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 5:06:01 PM

VGR $16.00 -0.06% ... $16.00 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 5:05:23 PM

BTI $54.62 -1.17% ... $54.62 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 5:04:49 PM

RAI $64.07 -0.83% ... $65.40 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 5:03:55 PM

Tobacco Loses DOJ Case But Escapes Financial Penalties -2

DJ- A nine-month trial in the case ended more than a year ago, leaving Judge Kessler with the task of sorting through piles of documents and testimony as she decided how to rule in the tobacco lawsuit.

The lawsuit began in 1999 when Justice lawyers alleged under civil racketeering laws that cigarette makers engaged in a five-decade scheme to defraud the public on the dangers of smoking, and originally sought $280 billion in disgorgement to prevent future fraud.

But the tobacco industry previously won a major component of the case when a panel of the Washington-based D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals limited the government's ability to collect up to $280 billion in financial remedies from the industry. What was left in the case was whether to order financial payments to pay for smoking cessation and education programs after deciding whether the tobacco companies violated federal racketeering laws.

During the trial's closing arguments, DOJ lawyers dramatically scaled back - from $130 billion to $10 billion - a proposed smoking cessation program remedy, leading to charges of undue political interference in the case. DOJ defended its decision, though, saying the disgorgement ruling tied its hands and made it impossible for the original cessation plan to withstand judicial review.

Tobacco companies named in the lawsuit include Philip Morris USA Inc., a unit of Altria Group Inc. (MO); R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Holdings Inc. and Brown & Williamson, which have merged to form Reynolds American Inc. (RAI); British American Tobacco PLC (BTI); Vector Group Ltd.'s (VGR) Liggett Group Inc.; and Loews Corp.'s (LTR) Lorillard Inc.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 5:03:51 PM

Altria (MO) alert $80.75 +0.01% ... surging to $83.20 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 5:00:56 PM

Tobacco Loses DOJ Case But Escapes Financial Penalties

DJ- U.S. Judge Gladys Kessler Thursday said tobacco companies violated federal racketeering laws by defrauding the public on the dangers of tobacco, but the judge said she didn't have the authority to order major financial remedies.

"The following voluminous findings of fact demonstrate that there is overwhelming evidence to support most of the government's allegation," Judge Kessler said in the 1,653 page ruling.

The decision gives several tobacco companies a major reprieve from financial penalties that have shadowed the industry since 1999. Kessler ordered the companies to make corrective statements on the dangers of smoking and to disclose marketing practices to government officials, but she opted not to include industry-funded smoking cessation and education programs that would have costs billions.

Both sides indicated ahead of the decision they were likely to appeal the outcome to a U.S. federal appeals court.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 4:56:24 PM

A "bearish shooting star?" ... some bearish patterns Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 4:48:55 PM

Ameritrade telling me they have no stock to loan on NVDA.

This may suggest stock is heavily shorted.

Looking at the chart also suggests the stock heavily shorted.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 4:48:42 PM

I'm not a candle sticker, and boy do I miss Linda.


Today's candle looks kind'a like that one on May 8th though.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 4:27:11 PM

Speaking of 50-day SMA's .... DELL Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 4:24:28 PM

Hmmm ... Dell's extended session has the look of NVDA's extended session on Thursday evening 08/10/06.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 4:18:31 PM

DELL ... $21.65 extended.

Extended session low has been $21.30

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 4:15:25 PM

Dell: Co Priced Aggressively In Slower Market

Dell Plans To Accelerate Cost Cuts

Dell Plans To 'Better Pricing Management'

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 4:14:30 PM

Dell: SEC Has Requested Info On Rev Recognition

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 4:14:18 PM

Dell Doesn't See Material Impact On Acctg Issues

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 4:14:06 PM

Dell Starts Independent Investigation On Acctg Issues

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 4:13:52 PM

Dell: New Consumer Desktops And Two-Socket Server To Feature AMD Processors

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 4:13:32 PM

Dell 2Q Rev $14.1B

Dell 2Q EPS 22c

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 4:11:21 PM

DELL's "August Max Pain" is $22.50 ($2.50 increments)

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 4:10:16 PM

DELL ... WEEKLY Pivot Levels .... $19.88, $20.48, $21.33, $21.94, $22.78.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 4:09:08 PM

Dell Computer (DELL) $22.80 +0.30% ... sharply lower at $21.40 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 4:05:38 PM

And some that need some monitoring ... OXY Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 4:04:09 PM

Huh? ... Good trades remembered ... DE Link as NYSE 10-week nears "overbought"

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 3:58:30 PM

Ten Week For NYSE PnF chart that measures percentage of stocks listed on the NYSE that are ABOVE their 10-week SMA (50-day SMA) at this Link ... Great of the SMA crowd of traders. Where is YOUR stock relative to its 50-day SMA? Extended? At/Near? Gravitating up to a TRENDING HIGHER 50-day?

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 3:51:09 PM

Taking a "chance" in the MM Profiles that commodites and related stocks get bounces.

Tab Gilles : 8/17/2006 3:50:59 PM

$SPX & $COMPQ stocks trading over 50/150/200 mas. Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 3:50:03 PM

Gold commodity and gold stocks ... very similar decisions as oil commodity and oil stocks.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 3:49:07 PM

BGO $5.06 -6.29%

NEM $50.67 -0.72%

GG $28.40 -3.07% ... near kiss of its WEEKLY S2 $28.22 within last 30-minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 3:47:18 PM

Swing trade short close out alert for the StreetTracks Gold (GLD) at the offer of $61.11

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 3:45:41 PM

My "gut" and my eyes say GLD could pop overnight.

How about it. Close out for a nice gain. Than perhaps look for another short back higher?

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 3:44:07 PM

Dollar Index (dx00y) 85.03 ... can't get back above WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 3:43:15 PM

Ugh .... GLD's WEEKLY S1 is $61.59.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 3:42:15 PM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) went out at 48.67 and did juuust undercut its WEEKLY S2 today (also achieved its bearish vertical count)

DAILY Pivot Levels for tomorrow ... 48.26, 48.46, Piv= 48.64, 48.84, 49.02.

49.02 correlative with WEEKLY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 3:35:57 PM

December Gold (gc06z) ... session high on Friday's open has been $625.00. Settled $625.30.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 3:32:20 PM

It certainly wasn't part of "the plan," but the current $+242 gain from the GLD and $-230 loss in the OXY Sep $52.50 Calls is a wash.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 3:25:58 PM

Swing trade lower bearish stop alert for the StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $61.04 -2.32% ... to $61.55.

This doesn't protect from one of those gap up sessions, but levels the RISK/REWARD to GLD's WEEKLY S2, which is where BGO and NEM are close to.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 3:23:51 PM

Let's do this ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 3:23:35 PM

What do you think? .... NEM $50.00, BGO $5.00 and GLD $61.00 ????

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 3:20:45 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 3:03:09 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 2:57:29 PM

OXY $51.18 -0.40% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 2:56:42 PM

Oil's closed for the day. XOM $67.70 +0.20%

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 2:55:40 PM

DIA $113.57 +0.14% ... sure didn't want to re-test that DAILY Pivot. Traded it to the penny at the open.

Might have spoke to soon at 02:27:40 as "the most important hour of the trading day" still to come.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 2:50:21 PM

CAL $24.00

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 2:44:17 PM

Fractional gains for the majors now. NYSE still down 18.55 points.

Tab Gilles : 8/17/2006 2:33:48 PM

Don't forget tomorrow is OpEx.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 2:29:59 PM

NEM $50.55 -0.96% ... session low.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 2:27:40 PM

Shoot ... gett'n more and more red on the screen.

VIX 13.53 +0.96%

VXN 19.76 +4.05% ... bears pain my be "over" near-term.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 2:25:44 PM

MWSE comes again at $23.91, but gets exhausted.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 2:25:01 PM

Bullish day trade stop alert ... for CAL $23.93

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 2:24:10 PM


Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 2:24:01 PM


Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 2:21:37 PM

CAL $23.96 -2.20% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 2:20:15 PM

MWSE just came up to $23.94 ....

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 2:19:48 PM

Day trade adjust stop alert ... on CAL to $23.92.

Tab Gilles : 8/17/2006 2:19:30 PM

August 22nd, Iran will have to make a decision on nuclear research and the UN deadline. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has vowed to stand by the country's nuclear work, insisting the UN Security Council cannot deprive Iran of its "rights", state news agency IRNA reported. Link

Gold has been developing a symmetrical triangle pattern. It is now testing the bottom trend line and if the test is successful, prices may fall to the previous low, the $600 level, if nothing significant happens on August 22.

$GOLD Link

$XAU is stuck in a trading range. Link


$WTIC Link

Oil is currently at $70.25, this chart is as of yesterday's close. It looks like that $70 level is support and close to the lower end of the uptrend channel. You may see buyer's start stepping in here.

Remember, that geopolitical and hurricane events have been calm. Any unexpected event that could disrupt things could send oil back up.

We still have Iran on the radar next week.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 2:12:26 PM

XAL.X 48.16 +0.37% ... holding gains. "Looks like" CAL intra-day, but WEEKLY R1 48.02.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 2:07:37 PM

Bullish day trade raise stop alert ... for CAL $24.09 -1.67% ... to $23.97.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 2:05:17 PM

NYSE slips red at 8,348.62 -0.10% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 2:02:09 PM

Sept. Crude PnF chart $0.50 box at this Link ... today's activity has O from $71.50 to $70.00.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 1:40:57 PM

Not a lot of OI at the $25 strike, but maybe enough to deliver some "pain" to the puts. $24.80 would be nice.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 1:38:54 PM

CAL $24.09 -1.67% ... day trader's 5-minute interval chart with August Option Montage at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/17/2006 1:25:45 PM

NQ approaching my second target at 1595. I would par down some bullish bets, at least for now. Don't get too greedy.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 1:19:59 PM

SPX NH/NL currently 20:2

Yesterday's tally was 25:4.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 1:19:23 PM

01:03 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 1:13:11 PM

CAL $24.10 -1.63% ... building a pennant on 5-minute interval chart. Just lift some offers and concede the NYSE strength. That's all day trade bulls ask.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 1:05:53 PM

01:03 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 1:02:37 PM

I've got enough food on my plate in the MM Profiles.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/17/2006 1:03:28 PM

Anecdotal observation. QQQQ seems to hit 1 point above or below Max pain every opex week. If the trend is up, it will get to 1 point above, if the trend is down, it will get to 1 point below. I will do some backtesting, but it is something have observed. In fact, when is the last time we actually closed opex at max pain?

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 1:01:45 PM

Newmong (NEM) $50.97 -0.13% ... whack it here with WEEKLY S2 at $50.10.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 1:00:42 PM

Bema Gold (BGO) $5.05 -6.48% ... breaks below its WEEKLY S2.

GLD's WEEKLY S2 at $60.47.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 12:45:31 PM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) updated bar chart Link

Then the $0.40 chart similar to what futures traders follow ($4.00 box) Link

$60.00 is next key level should GLD close below $61.50.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 12:37:28 PM

BIG, BIG, BIG test for GLD here. $61.47 -1.63% ... Right? Right!

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 12:30:21 PM

NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) 8,370.25 +0.15% ... updated from Tuesday's Market Wrap Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/17/2006 12:25:09 PM

QQQQ hit 38.94.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/17/2006 12:24:55 PM

On Tuesday, I also wrote the following:

8/15/2006 3:14:06 PM
My view is to be very careful shorting a first time break and close above such an important MA as the 50 dma. We will see where the Q's close, but if it is above 37.37, it would be quite a turning point and set up the gap close from July just under 39. I'm not saying we won;t go down and retest 37.37, I would be a little patient here as something has clearly changed. Again, this is the first time since May that QQQQ trades above 50 dma and the same goes for SMH and they are doing it on volume.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/17/2006 12:20:46 PM

Gold was also inded a short at 642 ( see yesterday post 8/16/2006 10:47:49 AM)

Marc Eckelberry : 8/17/2006 12:23:02 PM

SMH has also hit my (or close) near term target wich was 33.43 ( see my post 8/15/2006 4:01:13 PM ) Looks like 200 dma at 35.60 is noext if we get a close above 33.43. I doubt it quite yet, but keep an eye on it.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 12:13:59 PM


DJ- Shares slip 4% after retailer reports net income of $294 million, or $1.88 a share, which includes 14c gain. Revenue, the first full comparable year-over-year quarter since company was formed by Kmart and Sears merger, falls 3.1% to $12.79 billion.

SHLD $143.92 -4.05% Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 12:08:45 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 12:03:28 PM

Philadelphia Fed Aug New Orders 15.7 Vs Jul 10.1

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 12:03:18 PM

Philadelphia Fed Aug Employment 8.2 Vs Jul 12.8

Tab Gilles : 8/17/2006 12:03:14 PM

$NDX weekly Link

$SOX weekly Link

$GSO weekly Link

$GHA weekly Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 12:03:06 PM

Philadelphia Fed Aug Price Received 17.1 Vs Jul 17.1

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 12:02:55 PM

Philadelphia Fed Aug Price Paid 45.3 Vs Jul 50.3

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 12:02:46 PM

Philadelphia Fed Aug Business Index 18.5 Vs Jul 6.0

Tab Gilles : 8/17/2006 11:48:24 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/17/2006 11:46:23 AM

NQ hits my first target, 1587, July 3rd gap open (close enough 1587.75). Second target is 1595 MR1, third target is 1603 gap close. Don't ever play against a major gap that is close and that was the lesson this morning. Now I would get a little more cautious and definitely take some profits.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 11:44:40 AM

Bearish swing trade short lower stop alert ... on the StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $61.82 -1.07% ... to $62.41.

That about $638 on December Gold.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 11:38:50 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link ... For NYSE and NASDAQ's 10-day NH/NL ratios, it would currently take respective readings of 64.00% and 32.00% to reverse back up into column of X.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 11:28:48 AM

Bullish day trade entry alert ... for CAL $24.12

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 11:25:08 AM

Bullish day trade long alert ... for Continental Airlines (CAL) $24.05 -1.83% ... on a trade at $24.12, stop at $23.85, target $24.75.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 11:19:30 AM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $79.55 +1.68% ... might get its $80.00 strike. Good gravy! (see Tuesday's comment regarding $75)

Marc Eckelberry : 8/17/2006 11:17:43 AM

That said, I am a buyer of DELL on any drop. There is lots of business in the pipeline for next year, and enterprise is getting ready for some major upgrades, and HPQ is overplayed. DELL will not roll back quietly. Basically, make the trade to suit your time frame.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 11:15:21 AM

ICE $64.18 +2.65% ... making way above $64.00

Marc Eckelberry : 8/17/2006 11:13:08 AM

DELL getting carried away. Unless they compeletly surpise everyone, tomorrow could be hang over day. We will see, but it's obvious the bet is they will announce more AMD in the line-up and thus catch up to HPQ, but that is not the core of the DELL problem this quarter and if they decide to not say anything about that alliance until next month, the stock will get hurt and so will AMD. Just a very tough call here, but if you made money with DELL the past week, I would lighten up or buy some protective puts.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/17/2006 11:06:43 AM

Oil down, gold down, interest rates down, equities up. I am not a better against that line-up, which is why I think the rally has more upside. We will see how SPX holds up against the coming pullback and how it defends 1285.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 11:02:57 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 10:58:25 AM

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) 48.59, or 4.859% Link ... right at its bearish vertical count.

On the alert with a tight stop on the GLD short.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 10:56:15 AM

Gold losing its shine GLD $61.97 -0.83% Link ... glad I'm not long.

One thing to watch is Treasury yields, not just the dollar.

30-year YIELD Link has a bearish vertical count to 4.900%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 10:51:41 AM

ICE $63.76 +1.98% Link ... getting very close to my inital target of $64 and its WEEKLY R2 of $64.02.

I don't see a "scramble" at the $65 calls to this point.

Was thinking about turning short, but today's trade at $63.00 negates the "bull trap" pattern.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 10:47:15 AM

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) $23.99 +6.29% Link ... remains "on fire."

Back to its bearish vertical count of $23.00.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 10:44:28 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/17/2006 10:52:37 AM

My line in the sand for SPX is 1285/1286. The markets will stay bullish above and get bearish again below, with the possible exception of 10 month MA at 1277/1278, very strong support. Bears are the ones that have to prove something now with SPX only less than 30 points away from multi-year highs and above the key 61.8% number for 2006 (1285). Add the fact that we are well above the 2003 bull market trendline once again, and as I said, bears better wake-up, or the 2006 correction is over. After just a a week or so of trading, aside from techs, the word bear market does not seem very logical here. Bear markets are defined by more than 10 to 20% corrections ( and I am being generous, it usually just +20%). SPX hit 9% in June, and that was all she wrote. So I think many pundits may be jumping to premature conclusions.

Jane Fox : 8/17/2006 10:39:02 AM

I have family issues that I need to deal with today and tomorrow so I will signing off here and back (hopefully) on Monday. Have a wonderful weekend.

Jane Fox : 8/17/2006 10:36:44 AM



Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 10:35:53 AM

EIA Weekly Nat. Gas Storage Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/17/2006 10:36:08 AM

Does someoene know something about INTC? The worst is expected now with DELL probably annoucing more AMD in the line-up (word is they are already in production in Asia), but we have seen some big option buyers at both August and September 17.50 call strikes. If you own the Jan 17.5 calls (now at 2.05), buying the Sep 17.5 puts at .20 for insurance is not a bad idea.

Jane Fox : 8/17/2006 10:28:55 AM

Nat GAs inventories out at 10:30.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/17/2006 10:27:52 AM

Support for NQ will be 1530/1540 on a major pullback, although I will wait for next week's weekly pivot numbers to be a little more clear on that. The trend has changed and I don;t belive the summer rally is over. DELL could give us a scare tomorrow, no doubt, but buyers will come back in full force next week all the way into Labor day.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/17/2006 10:29:50 AM

My minimum COMP upside target at this point is 2230 and max potential is 2327, so I am a pullback buyer. Shorting NQ around 1600 is not a bad play, but I it's not in the trend anymore.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/17/2006 10:23:08 AM

NQ is too close to July 3rd gap to not hit it within the next day or two. 1587.50 open /1603.50 close. Monthly R1 is at 1595, I would patiently wait for that if wanting to get short.

Jane Fox : 8/17/2006 10:20:54 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The composite index of leading economic indicators dropped 0.1% in July, the Conference Board said Thursday.

It marked another sign that the U.S. economy's cooling off.

"The economy is cooling but isn't likely to stall out," said Ken Goldstein, the Conference Board 's labor economist.

With flat readings for the leading index seen over June and July, modest growth is on the horizon through the fall and maybe into the winter, Goldstein said. Five of the ten indicators that make up the leading index fell in July, according to the Conference Board, an industry research group.

Jane Fox : 8/17/2006 10:19:40 AM



Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 10:09:16 AM

10:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/17/2006 9:55:39 AM

July Conference Board Leading Indicators in 5 minutes.

Jane Fox : 8/17/2006 9:47:12 AM

Both ER and NQ bump up against their respective PDHs

Jane Fox : 8/17/2006 9:38:00 AM

Gold is breaking its overnight low but Nat GAs and Oil are holding on to their overnight lows.

Jane Fox : 8/17/2006 9:33:23 AM

VIX opens within its PDR.

The TRIN is all over the place so I will wait until the first 5 minute closes before taking a reading.

Jane Fox : 8/17/2006 9:31:42 AM

AD line is -244 and Ad volume below 0. No one has the ball this morning.

Jane Fox : 8/17/2006 9:30:42 AM

Here is why I think Nat Gas daily lows will break. Link But checking the 240 minute chart I see that it may not happen today because of the bullish RSI and MACD divergences. Link

Jane Fox : 8/17/2006 9:09:43 AM

Here is the daily chart of ES and as you can see it is bumping up against resistance from 1298 - 1304. The RSI has gotten into overbot territory, the first time since January, so expect a little retracement here. As I stated earlier this is now a buy the dips so a return to where the 100 and 200EMA meet would be a spot to so long. Link

Jane Fox : 8/17/2006 9:06:01 AM

Oil broke it PDL during the overnight session which should help keep equities bullish. Oil's overnight low was 70.45.

Nat Gas is testing its PDL and, based on the daily chart that I will show later, I think it will break through.

Gold traded within its PDR but did make a high of 642.20.

TBonds made a bullish break of their PDH. Link

Jane Fox : 8/17/2006 8:58:55 AM

The Labor Department said early Thursday that initial jobless claims decreased 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 312,000 in the week ended Aug. 12. Economists had called for jobless claims to fall by 1,000 last week.

Jane Fox : 8/17/2006 8:57:44 AM

Such a shame that Patsy Ramsay died in June of Ovarian Cancer.

Jane Fox : 8/17/2006 8:58:01 AM

Dateline WSJ - BANGKOK, Thailand - An American schoolteacher admitted to the killing a decade ago of six-year-old beauty queen JonBenet Ramsey, saying on Thursday that he was with her in her family's basement when she died and that her death was an "accident."

John Mark Karr, 41 yearls old, will be taken within the week to Colorado, where he will face charges of first-degree murder, kidnapping and child sexual assault, Ann Hurst of the Department of Homeland Security told a news conference in Bangkok.

"I was with JonBenet when she died," Mr. Karr told reporters afterward, visibly nervous and stuttering as he spoke. "Her death was an accident." Asked if he was innocent of the crime, Mr. Karr said: "No."

Later, as he was escorted to his guesthouse to pick up his belongings, he said: "I am so very sorry for what happened to JonBenet. It's very important for me that everyone knows that I love her very much, that her death was unintentional, that it was an accident."

Jane Fox : 8/17/2006 8:56:04 AM

Consolidating at PDH suggests these markets will move higher today. Please keep in mind the bulls have been quite greedy these last few days and a move sideways today will be the most likely scenario.

Charts have certainly turned bullish and we are into a buy the dips. Link

Keene Little : 8/17/2006 7:11:35 AM

We know opex can skew prices as moves get exaggerated. The move up from Monday's low fits the bill there. Price has been climbing in an ever-tightening ascending wedge and is either getting ready to bust loose to the upside or is getting ready to fail. I think it's getting ready to fail, even if it pushes a little higher first. As can be seen in this ES 30-min chart there are a few reasons why the rally may be topping out here, at least for the short term. Link

The ascending wedge is bearish and it's gone about as far as it can go. But this being opex week, and as displayed yesterday, there are some big players who can push this market in the direction they want and technicals don't mean much so we have to be careful about that. But if the technicals are working here, we also have the outer band on this chart warning of overbought. The band is a 1.5% envelope and most times that price touches this band we see a reversal. It's currently at 1302.

There's a Fib projection for the current leg up at just over 1300.50, close to yesterday's high. This is a projection for the 2nd leg up to reach 162% of the 1st leg up, a very common Fib relationship between moves. All of these things tell me the rally is now on borrowed time. If it continues to rally in the face of these resistances then I'll know manipulation is going on and I wouldn't fight it (or buy it). The longer this kind of buying goes on in opex week the worse the hangover will be the following week.

I will be traveling most of today and won't be back until close to the end of the trading day. Good luck and I'll see you later.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 4:00:33 AM

The EIA Nat. Gas figures will most likely get a little closer following than usual tomorrow. My opinion anyway.

A "pulse" on industry. Temperatures around the nation have been about "average" the last week (not too hot, not too cold, but juuuust right).

Sep Nat Gas WEEKLY Pivots ... $6.199, $6.739, $7.340, $7.880, $8.480

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 4:00:15 AM

Swing trade call raise stop alert (see 03:59:41 AM) ... for the two (2) Occidental Petroleum OXY Sep $52.50 Calls (OXY-IX) to $50.75 in the underlying.

Jeff Bailey : 8/17/2006 3:59:41 AM

Occidental Petroleum (OXY) $51.39 ... Seeing some "not so bullish" technicals developing. September Crude (cl06u) $71.30 -0.82% undercutting its WEEKLY S2 as I type.(floor trade/regular session is what matters most, but crude likely opens at WEEKLY S2 Thursday morning)

Here's a 60-minute interval chart of OXY Link and it certainly appears sellers were waiting at $52.50 and MONTHLY Pivot. That might be Op-Ex related, but I sure don't like the "little" h/s top patterns, and the potentially BIGGER H/S top pattern.

In my opinion, being "pure short" an energy stock can have some painful implications.

A trader that is LONG the OXY Sep $52.50 Calls could well short and EQUAL share amount near-term, using the CALLS as protection (geopolitical, weather, etc.). The recent sharp decline in volatility measures is "killing" anything that goes out the money.

With squiggly (red, green, red) lines, I'm envisioning the potential BEARISH trade.

At this point, it would take a close back above $52.50 for me to "upgrade" or suggest any new positions.

As noted last week. I'm going to be out of the office from Friday 09/01/06 to 09/08/06 and I'm not crazy about profiling a "hedge trade," and tying up your trading capital while I'm off in the woods.

My squiggly lines may NOT be "time appropriate" (IF OXY breaks below $50.95, then $50.52 to trade $49.20) the $49.20 trade may not be on 08/22/06 as drawn.

So ... what I'm going to do is raise a stop to $50.75 in the underlying (for the CALL OPTIONS) near-term. Look for/NEED WEEKLY S2 to hold true again, get the bounce BACK ABOVE $52.50 (op-ex, whatever) early next week, lead a "rebound" in crude oil prices (what is China's Hang Seng doing at a 52-week high as OPEC cuts demand forecasts?), then get a little "squeeeeze" going in OXY above $54.50 to my original target of $59.00.

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