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OI Technical Staff : 8/18/2006 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 4:43:24 PM

StockCharts.com's S&P 500 Bullish % ($BPSPX) Link finished 54.20% at Thursday's close and would need a reading of 56.00% to achieve "bull confirmed" status.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 4:31:02 PM

S&P Depository Receipts (SPY) $130.69 +0.50% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 4:29:56 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $113.80 +0.52% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 4:27:07 PM

US Bank Business Loans Up $1.6 Bln In Latest Week

DJ- Large U.S. banks' commercial and industrial loans rose $1.6 billion to $1.157 trillion in the week ended Aug. 9, the latest week for which data are available, after rising $15.8 billion the previous week, the Federal Reserve said Friday.

Jumbo certificates of deposit at the large banks in the survey fell $9.2 billion to $1.609 trillion in the latest week after rising $16.4 billion the previous week. Revolving home equity loans fell $3.0 billion to $425.6 billion after falling $3.3 billion the previous week.

Keene Little : 8/18/2006 4:16:24 PM

I hope everyone has a great weekend. See you Monday which could usher in some excitement in the other direction.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 4:15:06 PM

Buy Program Premium ... DIA $113.76 : SPY $130.64

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 4:13:45 PM

The session won't send soon enough for naked call sellers ... DIA $113.78 +0.50% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 4:10:42 PM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $33.15 +0.51% ... with all the "bad news" there was too much demand above $33 strike.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 3:50:11 PM

Occidental Petroleum (OXY) alert $52.50 +2.21% ...

Keene Little : 8/18/2006 3:46:13 PM

Heading into the close and no appreciable pullback. So the picture for Monday is either a small pullback and then rally to new highs or a deeper pullback that will see at least a Fib retracement of this week's rally. I'm leaning towards the deeper retracement now. Especially if much of this week's rally was opex related we'll probably see some unwinding of that activity next week.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 3:37:29 PM

AMD $24.04 -0.66% ...

INTC $18.41 -0.86% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 3:35:53 PM

Dell Computer (DELL) $22.33 -2.06% ... best levels of the session ... it's a bulllll market!

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 3:26:22 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $25.70 +4.00% ... Daily Interval chart with similar high/low close retracement shown in Monday/Tuesday Market Wraps at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 3:20:30 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) alert $25.61 +3.68% ... 200-day SMA and 61.8% retracement of January/June decline.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 3:17:24 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 3:02:13 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 8/18/2006 2:36:43 PM

The way this is inching higher for most of the day is actually giving me a more bearish feeling about Monday. The pullback from yesterday's high might have been it for the 4th wave correction and now we've been getting the 5th wave up. Since the 5th wave is normally weaker than the other moves and many times is only a test of the previous high, or a minor new high, this could be setting us up for a deeper pullback starting right away on Monday.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 2:32:38 PM

Can OXY $52.41 +1.94% show some moxy?

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 2:18:45 PM

While I think, based on observation that there should be a late session move back lower, TRIN new lows and VIX still moving lower may bring substantial short covering. Don't fall asleep if you're short stock futures.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 2:16:52 PM

YM Short Stop alert 11,381

Keene Little : 8/18/2006 2:14:49 PM

The market is slowly (and correctively) inching higher which tells me there is simply a lack of interest in selling today. We're still due a move down as part of the 4th wave consolidation (as it appears for the moment) that should stay above today's low. That will then be followed by another leg higher, probably later on Monday.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 2:12:29 PM

VIX 11.88 -2.94% ... THIS doesn't look as if call sellers have been hedged and "comfortable" with just a couple hours left for August expiration.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 2:03:53 PM

DE ... $72.47 -0.20% Link ... would like to go put again, with later year options on a blip above $74.00.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 2:01:41 PM

CAT $67.91 -2.09% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 2:00:02 PM

YM 11,365

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 1:59:26 PM

XOM $68.87 +1.14% ... NOT helping the YM short at all.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 1:58:40 PM

Some Nat. Gas Production, but largely an oil producer, OXY $52.11 +1.36% near's Wednesday's highs $52.50 level.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 1:57:22 PM

Nice reversal in Sept. Nat Gas taking place thus far. $6.98 +4.35% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 1:48:43 PM

TRIN 0.96 .... YM 11,367

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 1:40:47 PM

SPY presses morning highs here ...

YM 11,375

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 1:23:00 PM

CAL $24.08 -0.37% ... $25 Call OI now 4,096 and $25 Put OI 5,040.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 1:20:07 PM

DIA/YM building a VERY similar intra-day pennant like CAL did yesterday.

DIA $113.37

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 1:17:48 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 1:02:00 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 12:46:27 PM

DJX Option Montage with OI as of last night's close at this Link

Keene Little : 8/18/2006 12:39:51 PM

Back for another look and not surprisingly the market is not going anywhere. This clearly is looking like a consolidation kind of day. That should lead to slightly higher next week before we get a deeper pullback (which could be very deep). But for the time being I'd say you don't want to short this market yet. There could be a scalp short this afternoon but honestly I don't think it's worth the effort or hanging around for.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 12:39:11 PM

DIA Option Montage with OI as of last night's close at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 12:30:32 PM


DJ- The Euro Will Struggle To Rise Over Y150

The euro has spent much of this year climbing to new record highs against the yen but a break over Y150.00 looks unlikely to happen without a struggle, writes Nicholas Hastings.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 12:26:50 PM


DJ- Banks' U.S. business lending has risen to record levels in recent months, spurred by lenders offering easier terms to help compensate for slower home mortgage activity, economists say.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 12:20:20 PM

YM short raise target alert ... from 11,275 to 11,310.

YM 11,354

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 12:15:57 PM


DJ- Marvell Technology down 9% a day after it says 2Q revenue rose 47% to $574 million. The results fell short of Wall Street's expectations, which called for sales of $583 million.

MRVL $18.66 -8.88% Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 12:12:56 PM


DJ- Shares decline 4% a day after apparel retailer reports 2Q earnings of $128 million, or 15c a share, and slashes its earnings forecast for the rest of the year. Report prompts analyst downgrades.

GPS $16.56 -4.27% Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 12:10:13 PM


DJ- Retailer's shares climb 12% a day after it reports 2Q earnings of $8.4 million, or 16c a share, compared with last year's profit of $7.5 million, or 13c a share, thanks to a vendor settlement that included $2.1 million, or 3c a share.

ARO $25.64 +11.76% Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 12:04:23 PM


TiVo shares jumped as high as $7.78 at the open as judge orders satellite TV provider EchoStar to stop selling and turn off about four million of its digital video recorders within 30 days. Judge also orders EchoStar to pay $89.6 million in damages.

TIVO $6.83 +5.23% Link

DISH $32.02 -2.22% Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 12:00:50 PM


DJ- Auto maker will cut 4Q production by 21%, or 168,000 units as part of its effort to accelerate its Way Forward turnaround plan. The revised plan also reduces the company's previously announced third- quarter plan by 20,000 units. Moves come as company is also looking to close more factories and cut salaried jobs and benefits by 10% to 30%.

F $7.91 -3.18% Link

Tab Gilles : 8/18/2006 11:47:45 AM

Emisphere Technologies (EMIS) a biopharmaceutical company, specializes in the oral delivery of therapeutic macromolecules and other compounds.

Looking at a daily and 30 minute chart. After testing its 200-ma twice it rallied and is setting up a descending triangle.

EMIS Sep 2006 $10.00 PUT (MTQUB.X) Bid $1.55/Ask $1.80

If EMIS breaks below $8.50 enter trade. If it trends back up to $8.70 and reverses down enter. Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 11:34:36 AM

Sell Program Premium SPY 129.75 ... YM 11,350

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 11:33:45 AM

Go offer $4.10 alert ....

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 11:31:57 AM

Swing trade bullish call option alert for two (2) of the Microsoft MSFT Jan07 $22 Calls (MQ-FAQ) at $4.00. Currently bid/ask $3.90 x $4.10.

MSFT $25.36

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 11:25:31 AM

Disclosure: I currently hold a bullish position in MSFT.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 11:24:30 AM

MSFT moves into its "delayed Vista/Office" gap, and lack of Dutch auction participation among investors provides what should be a favorable demand/supply outlook for the stock.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 11:22:25 AM

Bullish swing trade long alert for 1/2 position in Microsoft (MSFT) $25.26 +2.26% here, stop $24.00, target $30. (I'm planning on this being a "core position" trade and if not stopped out, plan on holding/following until early next year).

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 11:15:55 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 11:01:59 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/18/2006 11:01:57 AM

NQ daily with support line hit today: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/18/2006 11:01:15 AM

NQ holds S1 but R is at 20 ema 30 mn. Bears need to mind QQV which is red, but AD lines favor them. This is a bad day to trade, unless you are scalping. I did a minor 3 point play and I consider myself lucky.

Keene Little : 8/18/2006 10:55:43 AM

Looking at the YM pattern, the best thing the bulls can hope for today is a sideways consolidation. That would fit as a 4th wave correction and would mean we'll get a 5th wave up early next week. That kind of consolidation today would mean we should expect another up-down sequence within the 11340-11400 range before rallying again. It also means there will only be very small moves to scalp today. Not a bad day to go find something else to do.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 10:23:59 AM

YM short entry alert 11,349 here, stop 11,380, target 11,275

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 10:20:48 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/18/2006 10:59:45 AM

By the way, keep an eye on XLNX and ALTR, excellent plays for next year in their potentially explosive field. At this point, I prefer XLNX since it got cleared of any wrongdoing. ALTR still has an investigation pending, but the stock is a little more bullish, It is perceived to have a revenue growth edge over XLNX, but the latter is the bigger player.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/18/2006 10:16:00 AM

The growth of WIMAX is hurting QCOM. That is one of the stocks that has not managed to pierce its 50 dma. I would stay clear of that one. In fact, any tech stock that has not moved up above its 50 dma during this rally should be avoided going forward.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/18/2006 10:10:07 AM

NQ holds the slide at S1 and QQQQ holds above the ex-trendline R now support it seems. A break below sets up that gap 37.70 and 38. Patient traders might just want to wait for that event, which is bound to get tested.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/18/2006 10:05:22 AM

The best trade at this point is no trade and to wait for support next week, unless of course you went short at NQ monthly R1 yesterday. For others, who just booked profits and want to play the long side, I would not bother today. Opex Fridays are notoriously treacherous. AMD getting the severe haircut I thought it would, INTC not as bad thanks to the UK WIMAX news. It is widely perceived that INTC will do better in the price wars than AMD.
I would wait for Monday and the weekly pivot numbers. If support holds, the bullish trade into Labor day is still alive and well.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 10:04:18 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 8/18/2006 10:01:44 AM

Not surprisingly, the push higher into the cash open has been quickly reversed. For starters, two equal legs down from yesterday's high gives us ES 1296 for a first downside target. If we're going to get a choppy pullback we see a bounce from there.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 9:55:00 AM

If stock prices can hold recent gains for the next couple of weeks, even 1/2 of their rise, look for a pretty strong rebound in the Sentiment/Current/Expectations readings.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 9:53:21 AM

Michigan Mid-Aug Expectations 64.5 Vs July 72.5

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 9:52:36 AM

Michigan 12-Mo Inflation Forecast 4.2% vs July 3.2%

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 9:52:02 AM

Michigan Aug Current Index 100.8 Vs July 103.5

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 9:50:41 AM

Michigan Mid-Aug Sentiment Index 78.7 Vs July's 84.7

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 9:49:14 AM

China's central bank raised rates by 27 basis points to 6.12%, which will take effect August 19. China last raised its lending rate in April, also by 0.27%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 9:33:20 AM

Dell Computer (DELL) $20.66 -9.38% Link ... Atop this morning's most actives at the NASDAQ.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 9:27:55 AM

Microsoft (MSFT) went out yesterday at $24.70 and jumping to $25.16 pre-market after the company said it is increasing its ongoing share buyback plan by about $16.2 billion, boosting its total repurchase authorization to $36.2 billion through June 30, 2011.

The world's largest software company also said that preliminary results of its "Dutch Auction" tender offer indicate it will repurchase about 155 million of its common shares at $24.75 each, for a total cost of about $3.8 billion. These shares represent approximately 1.5 percent of the shares outstanding.

Jeff Bailey : 8/18/2006 9:25:21 AM

Univ. of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment (August) to be released at 09:45 AM EDT. Consensus among economists is for a reading of 83.8

Keene Little : 8/18/2006 9:17:04 AM

Futures are being pushed up as we approach the cash open. I'm not sure I'd trust that move.

Keene Little : 8/18/2006 8:34:16 AM

It was a quiet overnight session for the futures and I suspect it will be a quiet day. The pattern looks set up for at least a pullback to ES 1290 area which is the broken downtrend line from the May high. The Boyz may have some more work to do to hold the market up but I suspect their opex work is over for the week.

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