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Marc Eckelberry : 8/22/2006 12:50:31 AM

NQ PP is 1571.25, gap open is 1570.75, you have your base.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/22/2006 12:49:57 AM

Techs could get fired up with the MSFT Vista news. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 11:35:03 PM

Index Pivot Matrix for Tuesday at this Link

Keene Little : 8/21/2006 10:17:57 PM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 8/21/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 8:59:00 PM

Japan's June All Industrial Activity Up 0.1% on Month

DJ- Japanese economic activity rose 0.1% on month in June, the government said Tuesday, marking the first rise in three months.

The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry's all industries index, considered a close approximation for gross domestic product growth as measured by industrial and service sector output, stood at 106.2 in June, up from a revised 106.1 in May.

That matched the figure forecast by a Dow Jones Newswires survey of economists. In May the index fell a revised 0.1% but rose 1.5% in April.

The rise in the June all industries index is due to a 2.1% on month increase in industrial production, released earlier this month. However, the index also showed that construction activity fell 1.4% on month for the second straight month of declines.

For the April-June quarter, METI's activity index increased 0.7% from the previous three-month period.

The April-June activity index is largely in line with a 0.2% on-quarter rise in April-June gross domestic product released earlier this month.

The all industries index takes a reading of activity in the eleven industries that comprise the tertiary index combined with activity in the construction, agricultural and fisheries industries, the public sector and industrial output.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 8:23:46 PM

Oil, and what I think lies ahead, with chart: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 6:45:14 PM

TXN and INTC, the blue chips of semis, although TXN has now become the must hold semi stock for funds. INTC lost that status in February.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 6:28:28 PM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) Components and weighting found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 5:08:05 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 4:49:35 PM

Instead of 1987, I am seeing more 1973 and an August to October rally. Of course, that would be a good time to exit, since 1974 was not so hot.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 4:44:22 PM

Line in the sand will be 50 dma for COMP/NDX/QQQQ/NQ/SMH. Until then...

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 4:43:37 PM

Surfing through the web and financial sites, lots of pessimism and talk of 1987 crash. The contrarian in me sees more upside because of this. Don't get me wrong, we could fall apart, but it might be on a different time frame than most expect.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 4:37:41 PM

NQ 1568 held and that could set up above pivot trading overnight (1571.25). I can't help but thinking we will go and close that gap soon.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 4:30:50 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 8/21/2006 4:29:59 PM

Today looked constructive for the bulls. One, we didn't see a reversal of opex's rally. Two, the sideways consolidation after the rally should be bullish. Three, it's looking more and more like a 4th wave playing out from last Thursday which calls for a 5th wave up. This afternoon's 3-wave bounce (for which ES achieved 2 equal legs up into the close at 1303.50). That means we should see a minor pullback tomorrow morning and then another rally leg.

For some initial targets, assuming the pullback goes to about 1299 and that we then get the 5th wave up equal to the 1st wave (which was to the Monday high) then we get a target of 1318.50 with a lower target just under 1310. After this 5th wave up completes that's when we should be set up for a multi-day pullback at a minimum. More bearishly this rally will lead to another large decline so I think finding a short entry will be the thing we'll want to do.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 4:15:45 PM

DJ- EIA: U.S. Retail Gasoline Avg. Price Down 7.6 cents on Week to $2.924

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 4:14:08 PM

DJ- UN: Peacekeepers Evacuate Diplomats From Congo Site

U.N. peacekeepers safely evacuated top foreign diplomats Monday from the besieged home of a Congo presidential candidate, officials said.

Jean-Tobias Okala, a spokesman for the 17,500-troop U.N. force, said the diplomats, including U.N. Chief Of Mission William Swing, were being returned to the world body's main offices in Kinshasa.

"They're out, and they're coming to U.N. headquarters. Everyone's safe," Okala said.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 4:00:51 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPY $130.16

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 3:54:13 PM

Fading the +1000 TICKS would not have netted you much at all and you would have to been very precise with your entry and exit.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 3:51:08 PM

Tomorrow the Economic Report docket includes:

10a.m. Aug Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Previous: 12.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 3:50:50 PM

September Crude Oil (cl06u) settled up $1.31, or +1.84% at $72.45

Rolling to October Crude Oil (cl06v) settled up $1.20, or +1.66% at $73.30.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 3:48:00 PM

Volume is anemic, nevertheless it looks like some funds did some closing shopping. Not much. but enough to get shorts a little worried.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 3:44:51 PM

Gap open is 1570.75.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 3:46:56 PM

It makes me very uncomfortable fading when the VIX is making new daily lows. If it were neutral I may not wait for the CCI but the VIX is bullish.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 3:40:22 PM

CCI however did not get above +200.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 3:40:40 PM

TICKS +1000 and I would think about fading this one.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 3:38:04 PM

Unfortunately though the AD line and volume have other ideas. AD volume continues to make new daily lows.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 3:37:24 PM

The VIX is saying ES will make a new daily high.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 3:31:33 PM

QM has serious resistance between 74 and 75 on the October contract (the one with volume now, September is closed).

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 3:28:29 PM

Switch to October on QM.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 3:23:55 PM

Yup. 1577 is 50% of gap, draw your fibs in there.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 3:21:40 PM

This coiling action will break soon. R is 1568/1569, S is 1565. Take your pick, but dull markets usually favor bulls. Add that huge gap above, and I still think shorts could be in for a scare.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 3:16:27 PM

Considering the gains we had last week, this is a shallow retracement (so far). SPX and DOW are more extended relative to 20 dma's, so I would stick to NQ for the long side.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 3:13:57 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 3:13:44 PM

Last month's bias no longer applies. Careful.

Keene Little : 8/21/2006 3:10:55 PM

This has certainly turned out to be an exceedingly boring day in the market. But bulls should like boring since that should mean another push higher. It could consolidate a little longer tomorrow but so far I don't see anything that tells me I want to be short here. After another push higher I'll want to be short but not yet.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 3:08:29 PM

This has not been a fun day for trading has it?

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 3:05:47 PM

Here are charts of $ with a 7EMA, Swiss Franc with a 5EMA and Crude with a 12EMA. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 3:02:33 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 3:01:14 PM

Please make note that the article I posted used EMA and not SMAs.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 2:56:08 PM

I like this comment "I conclude that the U.S. dollar (inverse trend), Swiss franc (direct trend), and crude oil (direct trend) are the best and most logical external relationship trend indicators for gold."

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 2:54:47 PM

For any of you who want some empirical proof of the Gold and $ relationship here is the article for you. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 2:52:58 PM

DJ- Prodi: Italy Willing To Command UN Lebanon Force

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 2:44:08 PM

Beras get it back. Watch 1565 support.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 2:43:34 PM

AD volume to new daily lows and that is never bullish.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 2:37:13 PM

Shorts are seeing that huge gap above and they might start covering. Still a day to scalp, though , so careful.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 2:34:56 PM

NQ 1565 holds. Nymex is closed.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 2:34:09 PM

MSFT $26.06 +1.04% Link ... doing its best to pull off a CSCO-like Link performance from a couple of weeks ago.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 2:26:15 PM

That didn't last.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 2:24:24 PM

QM backs off from 72

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 2:20:49 PM

Most Actives ... MSFT $26.00 +0.81%, F $7.60 -5.12%, QQQQ $38.37 -1.08%, INTC $18.17 -1.25%, SPY $129.95 -0.56%, LU $2.26 -1.73%, DELL $21.75 -1.85%, LVLT $3.87 +2.92%, SIRI $3.90 -0.25%, IWM $70.08 -1.21% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 2:16:15 PM

QM bid. Danger. NQ needs to hold 1565.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 2:11:56 PM

Very light volume readings so far today. NYSE might be lucky to see 1.6 billion today.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 2:07:56 PM

AOL has fired its chief technology officer and two other employees following the disclosure last month of Web-search data.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 2:01:25 PM

Quickly now is this chart bullish or bearish? If you use the blue trendline as support then Nat Gas is building a bearish triangle but if you use the cyan trendline QN is building a bullish wedge. Since all major MAs are above price I vote for the bearish triangle but would not put my money on it until I see for sure. Link

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 1:57:23 PM

ARe these markets building a bullish reverse H&S. With the AD line and volume as bearish as it is I wouldn't trade them if they were. Markets are certainly in a push pull today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 1:56:21 PM

UN:150 Troops Sent To Congo Site Where Diplomats Trapped

DJ- The United Nations sent scores of peacekeepers in armored vehicles to rescue foreign diplomats trapped inside the besieged home of a Congo presidential candidate on Monday, officials said.

U.N. Spokesman Jean-Tobias Okala said 150 U.N. troops in 20 armored personnel carriers were to take the foreign envoys from Jean-Pierre Bemba's home, where they were meeting the candidate when fighting erupted outside his compound. "An operation has been launched to extract the ambassadors," Okala said.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 1:54:38 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Ford Motor Co., taking a page from rival General Motors' restructuring playbook, will forego targeted buyouts and offer packages to all of its North American factory workers, according to a published report on Monday.

The announcement will likely come in September as part of Ford's (F) planned update of further actions to speed up its restructuring, Bloomberg News said, citing two unnamed sources familiar with the situation.

"We don't comment on speculation," said Ford spokesman Tom Hoyt. "I can tell you that discussions related to accelerating our 'Way Forward' plan are ongoing."

Specifically, Ford's working to expand its "Way Forward" approach, announced in January with the intention of slashing up to 30,000 jobs and closing 14 North American factories by 2012. An update, expected to follow a board meeting on Sept. 14, could include white-collar cuts and more plant closures.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 1:39:09 PM

Bears better wake up soon. 1565 is holding and we could get stop run to 1577 any minute. Watch QM 72. Tough day to trade. I have been scalping, nothing more.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 1:20:59 PM

U.S. 6-month Treasury Auction (results)

DJ- The U.S. Treasury awarded $16.00 billion in six-month bills at Monday's auction at a high rate of 4.975%.

The Treasury received bids totaling $39.24 billion and accepted $16.00 billion, including $2.08 billion of noncompetitive tenders. The dollar price was 97.484861 and the investment rate, or bond-equivalent return, was 5.174%.

The Treasury also sold $256.7 million of bills to foreign and international monetary authority accounts on a noncompetitive bidding basis.

The bid-to-cover ratio, an indication of demand, was 2.45, Treasury said.

Tenders submitted at the high yield were allotted 85.54%.

The median rate was 4.965%; that is, 50% of the amount of accepted competitive bids were tendered at or below that rate.

Of the competitive bids accepted, 5% were tendered at or below the rate of 4.950%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 1:18:33 PM

U.S. 3-month Treasury Auction (results)

DJ- The U.S. Treasury awarded $17.00 billion in three-month bills at Monday's auction at a high rate of 4.975%.

The Treasury received bids totaling $40.93 billion and accepted $17.00 billion, including $2.16 billion of noncompetitive tenders. The dollar price was 98.728611 and the investment rate, or bond-equivalent return, was 5.109%.

The Treasury also sold $100 million of bills to foreign and international monetary authority accounts on a noncompetitive bidding basis.

The bid-to-cover ratio, an indication of demand, was 2.41, the Treasury said.

Tenders submitted at the high yield were allotted 36.71%.

The median rate was 4.960%; that is, 50% of the amount of accepted competitive bids were tendered at or below that rate.

Of the competitive bids accepted, 5% were tendered at or below the rate of 4.950%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 1:12:13 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 1:11:55 PM

The bullish VIX seems to be overriding the bearish AD line and volume.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 1:08:44 PM

Just as I said that the TICKS hit +800.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 1:08:01 PM

TICKs have ranged from -672 to +768.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 1:04:35 PM

Marc I agree with what you say but I think we need a little more retracement or more sideways before moving upward. The daily charts are still overbought.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 1:01:56 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 1:02:30 PM

As a rule, shorts should be very wary of rallies that no one believes in, as has been the case all last week. Improving technicals with pessimistic sentiment is a recipe for more upside. Maybe not today, but this rally will resume soon. Shorting in an uptrend requires quick hands, so don't fall in love with the downside for too long. We should reverse by tomorrow.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 12:57:37 PM

20 ema 60 mn chart for NQ is the battle.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 12:54:07 PM

Canada's Govt. Says Tax Cut To Lower Core, Headline CPI By 0.5% Points

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 12:50:35 PM

Bre-X Scandal Enters Final Chapter With Closing Arguments In Insider Trading Trial

CP Story Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 12:49:54 PM

But watch oil.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 12:49:15 PM

VXN and QQV have sufficiently risen to allow room for some short covering.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 12:47:01 PM

NQ holds on to that ex- trednline R now S and if they can now hold 1565, next Ris 1567, then 1568.75. Any move now above 1569 sets up gap entry and 1577 target.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 12:46:52 PM

ES made a little lower low than I expected (gee Mr. Market is not doing what I expect!) but it has not had follow through because that VIX was also making lower lows. AD volume continues on the other hand to make lower lows.

Keene Little : 8/21/2006 12:44:39 PM

Thursday's and Friday's lows have held. I'm beginning to think, based on the choppy pullback today that as long as this continues to go sideways from Thursday we will probably get another leg up. For the rally from the Aug 11th low that would probably be the 5th wave (meaning Friday's "rally" was only part of a 4th wave correction which we could still be in). If the 4th wave correction is still in play then we should get another up-down sequence to this consolidation before heading higher again.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 12:40:50 PM

U.S. Planning New UN Resolution On Disarming Hezbollah

AP- The U.S. is planning to introduce a new U.N. resolution on disarming Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, but U.S. Ambassador John Bolton said Monday this shouldn't hold up the quick deployment of U.N. peacekeepers.

A new Security Council resolution could help break the impasse over getting an expanded U.N. force on the ground quickly.

Countries that are potential troop contributors have expressed concern about the rules of engagement - and exactly what troops would be required to do, especially regarding the disarming of Hezbollah.

"I think the initial force can be deployed now," Bolton told reporters. "We want the disarming of Hezbollah to be accomplished rapidly so that the democratically elected government of Lebanon can establish full control over its territory."

Tab Gilles : 8/21/2006 12:38:37 PM

$BPNDX/$NDX We amy see a pullback short term this week with the UN/IRAN deadline as tension and uncertainty build. But longerterm I'm still bullish on the technicals.*Note Bullish Divergence on BPNDX, RSI, MACD in the last few months. Link Link Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 12:17:47 PM

NQ barely holding on to that trednline: Link

Tab Gilles : 8/21/2006 12:14:36 PM

PnF Charts Link Link Link Link Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 12:10:14 PM

Any tech stock that did not move up above 50 dma along with NQ and QQQQ should not be chased. That includes QCOM and GOOG. In fact, GOOG is a short below 386 with a target of 340.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 12:04:43 PM

Caterpillar (CAT) $67.85 -0.67%

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 12:03:04 PM

Focus stock to buy on a pullback is TXN. Confluence 10 dma and 200 dma around 31.50/31.60 is a pick up if we get it. It is about stock picking in this market.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 12:01:38 PM

Swing trade put alert ... Let's take one (1) of the Deere, Co DE Oct $75 Puts (DE-VO) at the offer of $5.00.

DE $72.10 -0.86%

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 11:52:21 AM

Iran Refuses UN Access To Nuclear Site - Diplomats

DJ- Iran has turned away U.N. inspectors wanting to examine its underground nuclear site, diplomats and U.N. officials said Monday.

Diplomats said Iran's unprecedented refusal to allow access to the facility at Natanz could seriously hamper international attempts to ensure Tehran isn't trying to produce nuclear weapons.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 11:40:21 AM

Techincal trading here for scalpers. No big guns want to buy quite yet, we are overbought and VIX/VXN need to do some work to the upside, Nevertheless, be prepared for a possible bounce into those gaps before falling further. This is very hard to trade here and I would advise waiting for a bigger drop and test of weekly pivots. ES could hit 1293/1295.50.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 11:38:24 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- It's a quiet week ahead for U.S. economic data, with orders for durable goods and home sales the only major releases.

July home sales will be the chief focus of the markets, and the news probably won't be very encouraging. "The upcoming week will be a reminder that all's not well in the USA," said Avery Shenfeld, senior economist for CIBC World Markets.

Stu Hoffman, chief economist at PNC, says the housing data will be "ugly."

The slump in housing "has gained momentum in the past few months," said Mickey Levy, chief economist for Bank of America.

Sales of new homes are projected to fall about 3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.10 million in July. The data will be released on Thursday. Except for February, when the weather didn't cooperate, 1.10 million would be the lowest sales rate in two years.

And it probably overstates the number of houses actually sold.

Sales of existing homes are also expected to fall in July, dropping about 0.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.57 million. The figures will be released on Wednesday.

Keene Little : 8/21/2006 11:29:39 AM

Sorry for my absence. Seems I have the Monday morning blues when it comes to connection issues. I've been on the phone with Cingular trying to resolve my wireless connection problems. Here's hoping it's solved for good this time...

As for the market we don't have much happening other than seeing a pullback consolidating at the moment. After the initial drop and going sideways since then we should see another leg down. If YM drops below 11340 that will be an indication that the high is in for the leg up from Aug 11th and that we should see a deeper correction that takes a minimum of a couple of days.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 11:21:39 AM

Microsoft (MSFT) $25.86 +0.27% ... edges green.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 11:17:51 AM

A MACD that cannot get above the 0 line is a bearish MACD, which supports the bearish AD line and volume. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 11:16:21 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 8/21/2006 11:10:38 AM

Emisphere Technologies (EMIS) $8.57 Follow-up to 8/18 11:47am post. Today's 30 minute chart... Link Friday's... Link

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 11:09:26 AM

Vix is hugging its daily lows as ES is testing daily lows so the VIX is telling me those lows will hold. Therefor don't try shorting. Of course the AD Volume is telling me to not try a long either. I wish I could say go long or go short but the internals are not giving a clear picture today.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 11:08:57 AM

Not a good day for along, but if you must try, wait until at least 1559. We could get as far as 1552/1553 eventually, but I would start nibbling there again. Again, watchoil. That gap above for NQ looks like it will get a 50% fill at some point.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 11:02:31 AM

AD volume to new daily lows.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 11:02:13 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 11:00:08 AM

QM drops and the chop continues.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 10:57:32 AM


DJ- Major cigarette makers face a marketing challenge after a federal court rules they must rename some of their biggest-selling brands. As well as taking on 'corrective advertising,' adjectives 'light' and 'low-tar,' powerful marketing tools, have been ruled out.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 10:55:39 AM

OIl holds a bid and NQ fails to get back above s1 and in the gap. Test of trendline now.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 10:55:34 AM


DJ- The high price of gasoline and slowdown in housing are taking a toll on one of the most striking economic trends of recent years in the U.S. - consumers' widening taste for more upscale purchases.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 10:54:31 AM


DJ- Iran's supreme leader says Tehran will continue to pursue nuclear technology and accuses the U.S. of putting pressure on Iran despite Tehran's assertions that it isn't seeking nuclear weapons.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 10:54:02 AM


DJ- Israeli prime minister says there won't be peace talks with Syria as long as that country supports 'terror organizations.' Meanwhile, warplanes fly over Lebanon after its defense minister warns rogue Palestinian rocket teams against attacking Israel.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 10:52:26 AM


DJ- SanDisk, which holds the second-largest market share in digital music players, after Apple, plans to announce product enhancements and price cuts today aimed at attracting further interest in its answer to Apple's iPod.

SNDK $51.49 +0.62% Link

AAPL $66.68 -1.81% Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 10:49:26 AM

Dorsey/Wright classifies LOW and HD as BUILding

Sector is currently "bull alert" status at 35.48% and would need a measure of 38% to achieve "bull confirmed" status.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 10:47:11 AM

Home Depot (HD) $34.15 -1.78% Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 10:46:34 AM


DJ- Shares drop 4% as the home-improvement retailer posts net income of $935 million, or 60c a share, as sales rise 12% to $13.39 billion. Same-store sales increase 3.3%. Analysts expected earnings of 61c on revenue of $13.38 billion. For the fiscal year, Lowe's now projects earnings of $2-$2.07 on 11% revenue growth. Prior forecast was EPS of $2.07-$2.11 and revenue growth of 13%.

LOW $28.30 -4.13% Link

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 10:45:58 AM

Here is another stock that trades well technically, INTC. It has found resistance at the July 19th swing high but is also forming a bullish triangle (sort of) so INTC is more bullish than DELL but is still not bullish enough for me to try a long. I think there are more bullish charts out there to play with in the long sandbox until the sand runs out. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 10:43:51 AM

oil bids

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 10:41:41 AM

but 50% gap fill could be in thecards arund 1577.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 10:41:22 AM

if we fail again at 1570,we will see 1558.50 soon.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 10:41:03 AM

key test here

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 10:40:51 AM

SHorts careful, NQ could get in the gap with oil struggling to get above 71.70.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 10:37:15 AM

I love stocks that trade well technically. Notice the red trendline on this chart of DELL and tell me - would you go long DELL? I surely wouldn't even though I believe we are into a short term bullish period. This stock has certainly told me it knows were resistance is and has not been able to break it. Once the market turns back bearish this is probably a very good stock to short. Link

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 10:31:40 AM

No surprises here. Gold up $ down. Use this relationship until it no longer works. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 10:31:19 AM

08/11/06 and 08/18/06 Sector Bell Curve Comparison found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 10:30:15 AM

Large gap above for all, NQ is 1571.25/1585, but right now loks like one more push down. Watch oil.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 10:25:26 AM

Lows are NQ ex trednlie R now S. If that breaks, next s is 1555/1559.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 10:22:07 AM

The message in that article is supported by the secular and cyclical movements as well.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 10:20:32 AM

This is exactly how I think the stock market will play out in the coming years. Hopefully you will be able to open this link. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 10:08:30 AM

CBOE Oil Index (OIX.X) 642.35 +1.11% Link ... bullish "pop" back above its 21-day SMA this morning. Has tended to provide some bullish momentum in following sessions when this shorter-term SMA is RISING.

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 10:02:32 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/21/2006 9:56:35 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 9:56:04 AM

I heard a lot about how much Gold has fallen the last few days so I was anxious to get back to my charts to see just how much damage has been done. Well the daily charts are telling me not much and it looks like Gold is just meandering in a sideways channel, which I suspected it would do for the summer albeit I suspected in a much narrower channel than this 50 pointer. Link

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 9:43:11 AM

Internals are telling me this is not the time to be long.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 9:39:58 AM

Here is how the markets are trading in relation to their PDRs. Link

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 9:38:06 AM

TRIN is neutral at 1.06 and at a mid point to its PDR.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 9:37:41 AM

VIX opens above its PDH and confirms the bearishness.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 9:36:16 AM

AD line is a bearish -800 and AD volume below 0.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 9:22:59 AM

MACD is not giving any indications that the equity markets will do anything from here but make a normal retracement. If they were showing negative divergences I would not be so sure but since they are not even though most of the markets are up againt resistance I see a small retracement or even more bullish scenario is a sideways move until the overbought is able to burn off.

I am still kicking myself for ignoring what the MACDS were telling in late July and for allowing my longerterm bearishness to overlook the short term bullishness in the charts.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 9:19:04 AM

Talk about resistance, ER is up against a downward trendline, 100EMA and the 200EMA. However notice the RSI did not get overbought. Link

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 9:15:37 AM

Notice how NQ has been using the red upward channel as support telling you this channel has some validity. But this market needs to retrace as well so a return to test the downward blue trendline, which is about mid point to the red upward channel is certainly a possibility Link

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 9:06:30 AM

Same story with YM, it is running into some major resistance and needs to retrace. I think the 11185-11190 area is a good place to try a long but not here. Link

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 9:04:09 AM

ES has been "running" up the bottom magenta trendline and is now facing some major resistance; plus the RSI is overbought, the first time since January. Although I have turned short term bullish I really think this market needs to retrace from here so you can get long at a much better spot like back where the all the major trendlines seem to be heading - around 1280-1282. Link

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 8:57:20 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures rose sharply early Monday, as oil prices climbed on signs that Iran's set to reject a United Nations demand that it cease enriching uranium for its nuclear program.

Gold for December delivery was last trading up $9.30 at $631 an ounce, recouping part of the nearly $23 loss recorded last week as easing Middle East tensions and inflation concerns undercut demand for the metal as a safe-haven investment and inflation hedge.

Crude futures gained 72 cents, or 1%, to $71.86 a barrel in early electronic trading. Iran returned to the headlines over the weekend, with the country's foreign ministry saying the suspension of uranium enrichment won't be on the agenda when Iranian negotiators sit down with western governments.

Tehran's expected on Tuesday to formally reject a package of incentives to stop enriching uranium. In July, the U.N. passed a resolution that gives Iran an Aug. 31 deadline to halt its activities or face unspecified sanctions.

Meanwhile, the Iranian army tested surface-to-sea missiles over the weekend, according to news reports.

"It is seen as a hint concerning the ability of Iran to close the Straits of Hormuz," said UBS analyst Jon Rigby, referring to the key waterway at the mouth of the petroleum-rich Persian Gulf.

Keene Little : 8/21/2006 8:53:57 AM

I was hoping to see only a minor pullback and then a small push higher in YM to set up a short play but this morning's open has it down a little more than I had hoped. It doesn't "look" right for a pullback and then another move higher which tells me Friday's high may have been it. I'm thinking of looking for a short entry sooner rather than later. I'll wait until the cash market opens to see if the DOW paints a slightly different picture.

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 8:53:20 AM

My goodness it looks like Nat GAs was all over the place on Friday. This market is getting to be a daytraders dream.

Both Oil and Gold have broken their PDHs and are helping to hold back the equity markets.

TBonds broke their PDH but have once again fallen back into their PDR. Link

Jane Fox : 8/21/2006 8:46:23 AM

Good Morning everyone. Hope you all had a great weekend. The equity markets had a rough overnight session with lower lows and highs. I see a bid in Oil and I think that is reason. However, as you can see no market has broken its PDL. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 3:42:53 AM

QM has a nice bid, possible upside is between 73 and 74 over the next couple of days.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/21/2006 3:32:25 AM

Patient traders should note the relative correlation between weekly pivots and daily S2 for both NQ and ES. In other words, close shorts and go long (or just wait for a long) at ES 1292/1295 and NQ 1255/1259 approximate zones.

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