Option Investor
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 1:22:21 AM

Recent Scott & Scott list of companies currently being investigated for potential stock option backdating.

Amkor Technology Atmel


CEC Entertainment


Chordiant Software

Crown Castle Int'l

Dot Hill Systems


J2 Global







Witness Systems

Keene Little : 8/23/2006 10:15:32 PM

Late in the day on Wednesday I had mentioned I'd like to see ES hold the 1291 area since the Fib projections based on the internal wave structure would line up nicely just above 1231 for a price target. If Wednesday's low of 1291.50 holds, and we get another leg up in the rally from the July 18th low that reaches for the top of a parallel up-channel (just like the one I had shown for SPX at the beginning of the day on Wednesday) by mid week next week , then there's good correlation at that 1231 level. Link

Looking a little closer at the leg up and pullback since the Aug 11th low shows why I thought the 1291 level would hold. Link
After a 5-wave move up from Aug 11th to the high on Aug 18th (which is wave-A), we then had a 3-wave pullback to today's low (labeled a-b-c on the chart) which makes up wave-B. This wave-B retraced 38% of wave-A at 1291.75. Within wave-B the 2nd leg down achieved 162% of the first leg down at 1290.75. There was good correlation for support right around 1291.

Now we should get a wave-C up, as shown on the first chart above, and if it goes the same distance as wave-A then we get 1331.50 for a price target. This lies right on top of the price target of 1331.25 based on the previous A-B-C. The move up from July 18th is what's called a double zig-zag wave count (A-B-C-X-A-B-C) and many times the two A-B-C's are equal to each other and that's the projection to 1331.25, and it crosses the top of the parallel up-channel next Wednesday, Aug 30th. Makes for an interesting possibility that that will be the top of the market--a retest of the May high (more so for SPX since the futures have lost some of their premium since May).

Keene Little : 8/23/2006 10:06:46 PM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 8/23/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 6:43:29 PM

CME Explanation of Fair Value Futures Premiums at this Link

Please note all times are Central Time Zone.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 6:28:54 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Today's Activity


A "surprising" build in Gasoline stocks brought renewed selling to the energy sectors and shares of Occidental Petroleum (OXY) traded my stop of $52.24 with the OXY Sep $52.50 Calls (OXY-IX) bid $1.10. ($-1.15/contract, or -51.11%)

Day traded short a full position in shares of Deere, Co (DE) at the bid of $72.98, but was stopped out at $73.30 ($-0.32/share, or -0.44%)

YM Futures

In the wee hours of the morning, pivot traders sniffed out a "destiny" trade and this morning we shorted the YM at 11,377 (Stop= 11,393 :Tgt= 11,317) and while it looked as if it might be a crash landing at 11,392, long liquidators saved the day and we opened our parachute at target. (+60 pts, or $+300/contract)

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 5:14:26 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 4:58:34 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 4:58:29 PM

October Crude Oil futures (cl06v) settled down $1.34, or -1.83% at $71.76.

October Unleaded futures (hu06v) settled down $0.0644, or -3.36% at $1.8523.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 4:58:21 PM

And congrats to those traders that covered just shy of the cliff's edge!

The best time to open one's parachute is before you hit the ground.

Keene Little : 8/23/2006 4:08:58 PM

YM held its uptrend line at 11290 and ES did an under-throw just to catch some stops and suck in some bears. Congrats to those who went long at the edge of the cliff. Stops on longs belong just below today's low.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 4:07:13 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPY $129.75 : YM 11,333

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 4:06:48 PM

YM 11,331 ....

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 4:05:57 PM

Tomorrows Economic Reports include:

8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims For Aug 19 Wk. Consensus: +3K. Previous: -10K.

8:30a.m. July Durable Goods Orders. Consensus: -0.3%. Previous: +2.9%.

10a.m. July New Home Sales. Consensus: -2.7%. Previous: -3.0%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 4:04:59 PM

SPY still climbing $129.70 ... 16-minute until its close.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 4:04:20 PM

See that "crazy" 5-minute bar on the SPY?

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 4:03:17 PM

SMH goes out 6 cents below its WEEKLY Pivot of $32.48.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 4:02:34 PM

QQQQ goes out right at its WEEKLY Pivot of $38.16

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 4:00:09 PM

PREM 2.89

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 3:59:39 PM

YM 11,313 ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 3:56:15 PM

Might expect some type of "sharp" move from futures just after the cash close.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 3:52:34 PM

Still stuck ... PREM 4.60

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 3:50:34 PM

YM 11,313

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 3:48:33 PM

Stuck in a BIG buy program ... PREM 4.60

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 3:43:34 PM

For those "new" to the market monitor and program trading, these buy/sell program premiums are points of ARBITRAGE between cash and stock futures.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 3:42:19 PM

I "missed" a sell program premium at 03:16 PM EDT.

SPY was $129.20

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 3:41:04 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPY $129.48 : YM 11,306

Marc Eckelberry : 8/23/2006 3:38:48 PM

NQ stop should be moved up to 1549 from 1545.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/23/2006 3:38:03 PM

If NQ 1553 holds, we saw the lows.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 3:37:56 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPY $129.50 : YM 11,306

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 3:34:16 PM

DJ- Bush Admin: Iran Nuclear Answer Falls Short Of UN Demands

The Bush administration said Wednesday that an offer by Iran to hold negotiations on its nuclear weapons but not to halt enriching uranium falls short of U.N. demands.

A statement issued by the State Department acknowledged that Iran considered its proposal to be a serious one. "We will review it," the statement said.

But it went on to say that Iran's response to a joint offer by the U.S. and European countries of concessions if the enrichment program was halted "falls short of the conditions set by the Security Council."

Marc Eckelberry : 8/23/2006 3:28:58 PM

Look no further than DJGT index to see where big money has been moving to. Large cap multinationals. Out of small caps. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 3:17:59 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/23/2006 3:07:55 PM

Smart money plays the final hour, let's see if they drive it up. So far, they are, but it's too early to tell.

Tab Gilles : 8/23/2006 3:07:17 PM

Weekly EIA Report Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/23/2006 3:04:14 PM

1% correction for NQ is about on par for a pullback in an uptrend. So far, 50 day ema is holding.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 3:03:25 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 3:00:20 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPY $129.25 : YM 11,290

Keene Little : 8/23/2006 2:57:32 PM

I finally got my QCharts up and running. If ES breaks much lower than 1291 then it will probably head for the bottom of its up-channel, currently just above 1285. If it can hold at 1291 and we then get two equal legs up from the Aug 11th low, that would give us a projection to 1231.25, matching the projection in the larger wave count for the move up from July 18th. That's speculation at the moment but would fit nicely. But the little consolidation this afternoon makes me think we're heading lower still. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 2:57:12 PM

QQQQ $38.00 -1.11%

VXN.X 20.59 +3.15%

VIX.X 12.60 +3.36%

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 2:55:15 PM

DE 5-minute interval chart with a lower "5-mrt" (5 minute retracement/dashed red) at this Link

Tab Gilles : 8/23/2006 2:54:10 PM

EMIS $8.30 (-0.56)

EMIS Sept '06 $10 PUT (MTQUB.X) Bid $1.70/ Ask $1.90 as highlighted on 8/18 11:47 AM post.

60 minute chart. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/23/2006 2:54:10 PM

SMh found support at 10 dma (32.19, we hit 32.21). We should be done, but as usual, keep those stops tight and moving up to even as soon as possible.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 2:51:40 PM

Not time to be long however because the AD volume is making new daily lows and the AD line is -1449.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 2:51:05 PM

ES tested daily lows but the VIX did not test daily highs so I think the ES lows are safe for now.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/23/2006 2:50:16 PM

50 ema is 1546.50, s2 is 1547, put your stops at 1545.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/23/2006 2:49:35 PM

Bullish divergence on that lower low. 1547 is must hold.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/23/2006 2:47:16 PM

We did go down to that QQQQ bad tick after all. Amazes me everytime.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/23/2006 2:46:18 PM

NQ 50 ema.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 2:45:22 PM

NQ the first market to make new daily lows.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 2:44:38 PM

My sentiments exactly Keene. Internals are quite bearish.

Keene Little : 8/23/2006 2:42:56 PM

If this doesn't start to climb back up very soon and instead consolidates here I'd get short rather than stay long. That would be a signal that support is going to give way.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 2:35:46 PM

Bearish day trade short stop alert ... for DE $73.30 +0.20% here.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/23/2006 2:35:34 PM

Too many players want in, hard to find an entry. Wide stops could be the way to go.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/23/2006 2:34:39 PM

Ideally, I would have liked to see VIX 12.90 or so to hit it long.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/23/2006 2:31:11 PM

NQ 1546/147 is a play if hit as well.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/23/2006 2:30:28 PM

ES 1289.50 could get hit if we can't get a move avove 1293 soon.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/23/2006 2:29:21 PM

COMP still has risk to 2122 or so. If QQQQ 38 brteaks, it will happen and then you want to get in as long as QQQQ holds 37.71.

Keene Little : 8/23/2006 2:10:03 PM

It's definitely an edge-of-the-cliff play to go long here. Brave souls should hit it.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/23/2006 2:03:04 PM

TXN Jan 30 calls 3.70 for the brave.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/23/2006 2:02:44 PM

TXN 200 dma.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/23/2006 2:02:12 PM

QM bid, careful.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 1:57:55 PM

I would really like to see ES get back to about 1280. This would give the MACD a chance get a cross, confirm the bullish divergence and cross back again at a lower spot. It also would give the RSI a chance to burn off some its overbot although today's decline has started that process. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 1:54:53 PM

DE $72.87 -0.38% ... with 5-mrt in place ... first test is $72.75. Red #6 is MAX intra-day target, which overlaps DAILY S2 at $71.43.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/23/2006 1:52:47 PM

My short target yesterday for ES has been reached at 1292. There is a possible kick to 1289, but take some off the table if short.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 1:52:11 PM

I fixed the link in my last post.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 1:51:40 PM

Classic bear flags. You may want to print these and pin them up on your wall. Flags break, return to test the flag and start falling. Beautiful! Link

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 1:49:14 PM


Tab Gilles : 8/23/2006 1:49:27 PM

Emisphere Technologies (EMIS) Followup to 8/18 11:47 AM & 8/21 11:10 AM posts. EMIS was in a descending triangle, attempted to break out and is currently re-testing support $8.50. Link Link Link Link

Keene Little : 8/23/2006 1:45:38 PM

YM is also hitting its uptrend line from Aug 11th here at 11290. Other than a small under-throw the bulls need to hold the line here or else.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 1:44:26 PM

Slap a 5-mrt on DE

Marc Eckelberry : 8/23/2006 1:42:34 PM

Finally we break the noise. Watch QQQQ gap 37.70/38.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 1:41:47 PM

Not that there's a lot of "junk" in the Russell-2000, but smaller cap debt often-times has lower credit rating.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 1:39:35 PM

RUT.X 698.98 -1.24% ... benchmark

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 1:38:30 PM

Junk bond alert ... PHF $10.00 +0.20% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 8/23/2006 1:38:24 PM

SPX at 2003 bull market trednline. Lots of noise here.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 1:36:04 PM

Day trade short entry alert ... for DE $72.98

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 1:34:00 PM

Day trade short setup alert ... for Deere, Co (DE) $73.02 ... go short on a trade at $72.98, stop $73.30, target $71.45.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/23/2006 1:29:35 PM

The drop in oil is keeping a floor in, but the internals are still weak. Tough day, but watch NQ 1556/1558 area. Confluence s1 and weekly pp.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 1:27:10 PM

Bullish swing trade call stop alert ... with OXY $52.24 -2.00 ... stopped on the OXY-IX at the bid of $1.10 ($1.10 x $1.25)

Keene Little : 8/23/2006 1:24:53 PM

One of these days I'm going to get this Cingular wireless card to work (been on the phone all morning with them again) or it's going to be tossed into the river. I'm currently on my sloooooww dial-up backup. Grrr...

The bottom of the up-channel for SPX (see my earlier chart at 9:11) is just above 1290 so it's not quite there yet. But ES is currently bouncing around on its uptrend line from Aug 11th. If it breaks below it there could be big trouble for the bulls but until then you might want to try a long here since you can keep your stop relatively tight.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 1:18:27 PM

CAT (alert) $67.49 -1.47% ... gives up DAILY S2 ($67.58)

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 1:17:31 PM


DJ- Alaska's governor, who finishes last in GOP primary yesterday, vows to continue to push a contract for a $25 billion natural-gas pipeline to Canada. Critics say his deal cedes too much in incentives without firm commitments to build.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 1:14:05 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 1:10:02 PM

These are quite bearish and suggest lower lows. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 1:03:04 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 12:50:46 PM

Biiiig volume spike on RIO of 1.6 million shares on 5-minute interval chart from $21.00-$20.97 from 12:10-12:15.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 12:48:55 PM

Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO) $20.88 -4.26% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 12:47:47 PM

Freeport McMoran (FCX) $57.02 +0.21% Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 12:46:51 PM

Phelps Dodge (PD) $89.03 -1.12% Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 12:45:54 PM


DJ- Mining giant posts 63% leap in annual net profit to $10.45 billion on soaring commodity prices. Revenue increases 26% to $39.1 billion. Normally reserved BHP CEO Chip Goodyear concedes the huge numbers are hard to comprehend.

BHP $42.70 -1.74% Link

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 12:41:44 PM

VIX finds support at its PDH and ES finds resistance at its PDL. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 12:40:42 PM


DJ- PetroChina reports a 29% rise in first-half earnings as crude prices soar along with China's demand for energy, and it unveils sweeping plans to make the biggest Chinese oil company even bigger, agreeing to pay $2.7 billion for a 67% stake in PetroKazakhstan.

PTR $114.46 -1.63% Link

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 12:39:07 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Oil and gasoline futures fell sharply Wednesday with crude dipping back below $72 a barrel after a government reported showed a smaller-than-expected fall in U.S. crude inventories and the first climb in gasoline supplies in five weeks.

The inventory report "offers unequivocal evidence that oil prices need to moderate," said Rakesh Shankar, an economist at Moody's Economy.com. "Inventories are still fairly high, refinery utilization is picking up, inventories are sturdy and demand is clearly moderating."

Crude for October delivery was last down $1.60, or 2.2%, at $71.50 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It tapped an intraday low of $71.30, its lowest level since Friday.

Early Wednesday, the Energy Department reported that crude supplies fell 600,000 barrels to 330.4 million for the week ended Aug. 18. In a separate report, the American Petroleum Institute data showed a 1.9 million-barrel decline in the stocks.

On average, analysts expected a crude-supply decline of 1.45 million, according to a survey conducted by Platts

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 12:38:46 PM


DJ- Tech Data's 2Q loss widens to $155.5 million, or $2.81 a share, compared with a loss of $59.4 million a year ago. Excluding items, company earns 1c a share as sales rise 2.7% to $4.94 billion. Wall Street expected EPS of 3c.

TECD $34.81 -0.02% Link

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 12:37:27 PM

Bear flags have all confirmed. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 12:35:49 PM


DJ- Chicago Fed National Activity Index turns lower in July, indicating economic activity below historical trends. Three-month average remains in positive territory.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 12:33:08 PM


DJ- Shares jump 16% a day after a federal judge stays the final phase of a 6-year-long court battle between Rambus and Hynix Semiconductor until the FTC determines a penalty in a separate antitrust case against Rambus.

RMBS $12.98 +15.65% Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/23/2006 12:30:48 PM

QM slight bid drops NQ s1 and we could see another trip to lows. QQV holding up pretty well, though.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 12:29:55 PM


DJ- Shares surge 18% as PC maker gets $450 million offer from eMachines founder Lap Shun Hui, who sold eMachines to Gateway in early 2004 for about $290 million in cash and stock and is Gateway's second-largest shareholder.

GTW $2.03 +18.02% Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 12:28:05 PM


DJ- Home resales fall to a 6.33 million annual rate, the fourth-straight monthly decline. Analysts predicted a 6.55 million rate of sales of previously owned homes. Inventory of homes on the market increases to 7.3 months, compared with June's unrevised 6.8 months, while average sales price edges higher.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 12:14:56 PM

Deere, Co (DE) $73.10 -0.06% ... perhaps a little more "oversold" on an intermediate-term basis than CAT.

Dynamics a DE short/put wants to see is CAT to give up Monday's low, gravitate to its WEEKLY S1, and bidders to step away in DE.

DE's WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... $64.52, $68.63, Piv= $71.01, $75.12, $77.50

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 12:10:52 PM

Caterpillar (CAT) $67.74 -1.10% ... sits right at Monday's lows. Now juuuust under its WEEKLY Pivot of $67.94.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 12:08:07 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 12:07:14 PM

VIX and ES are in sync today. Link

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 12:05:34 PM

Looks like a bunch of bear flags are building. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 11:57:05 AM

Every SPY short and his/her brother/sister that was leveraging against $129.43 ($129.50) most likely sitting bids, after seeing $130.70.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 11:54:27 AM

SPY 129.58 -0.41% ... not only a kiss at WEEKLY Pivot, but $129.43 ... that's the EXACT PRICE HIGH of 06/02/06.

SPY chart from Monday's Wrap Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/23/2006 11:53:09 AM

Oil keeps dropping and that is giving NQ some support.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/23/2006 11:46:33 AM

I remember when we used to watch those bad ticks and actually bet if we would see them show up for real. They often did, eventually.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/23/2006 11:45:19 AM

That QQQQ bad tick at 37.90 is probably close to 1547

Marc Eckelberry : 8/23/2006 11:43:06 AM

NQ back above s1 and looks to test yesterday lows as R now, at 1560.75, wher bears could re-enter. But keep in mind that many traders have been waiting to get into this rally on a dip.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 11:42:52 AM

Time to take the ES short off the table.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/23/2006 11:37:47 AM

NQ 1547 is 50 ema and S2. 10 day ema is 1550. I would put that on the radar.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 11:23:47 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/23/2006 11:18:24 AM

37.70 is gap close. Very patient traders could be rewarded by just sitting it out if not short earlier.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/23/2006 11:17:32 AM

QQQQ 38 is top of gap, and that could be the final word today.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/23/2006 11:14:02 AM

SMH 32.27 is also key.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/23/2006 11:12:49 AM

COMP has key support around 2121, NQ aound 1548.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 11:13:04 AM

Interesting on how one little letter can totally change the meaning of a sentence. The "not" in my last post has been corrected to "now."

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 11:12:07 AM

I agree Jane! (11:09:56)

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 11:11:20 AM

YM 11,313 ... gets the trade at WEEKLY Pivot.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 11:11:28 AM

My stop on the ES short is now a B/E.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 11:09:56 AM

From a longer bullish perspective this decline is exactly what the bulls need.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 11:09:52 AM

YM short target alert 11,317

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 11:09:27 AM

QQQQ $38.16 -0.70% ... gets a trade at its WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 11:04:25 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 11:03:06 AM

Seems like ES and NQ find support at their PDLs.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/23/2006 10:59:39 AM

YG loses 50 dma, 633.60, key support.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/23/2006 10:59:15 AM

I had targeted ES 1289, but we could hold up around 1292/1295.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 10:58:48 AM

YM 11,333 ... confidence builds for its WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 10:58:21 AM

RUT.X 701.69 -0.85% ... gets a trade at WEEKLY Pivot.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/23/2006 10:58:21 AM

Watch 10 dma for COMP and NQ and let it come to you if you want a long. I doubt we will lose the uptrend, but we should get a deeper pullback here. Watch ES 1292 for support now.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 10:56:35 AM

ES and NQ are now testing PDLs.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 10:56:24 AM

I should have shorted ER.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/23/2006 11:00:46 AM

Dollar weakness still holding up YG, but it's very precarious. QM has lost key support. SMH still green, which is a surprise. NQ has multiple areas of support below 1560, but techs are still the strongest.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 10:47:44 AM

Need at least 5 points below 11,340 to think 11,313 right?


Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 10:46:24 AM

Ticks -800.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 10:45:13 AM

YM 5-minute interval chart at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 10:40:49 AM

I am taking an ES short here with a stop at 1301.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 10:39:30 AM

Both AD line and volume are now making new daily lows adding to the bearishness.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 10:39:15 AM

Occidental Petroleum (OXY) $53.08 -0.41% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 10:37:49 AM

YM short lower stop alert to 11,366

YM 11,351 with session low 11,340.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 10:35:01 AM

EIA Weekly Distillate Inventories up 2.3 million barrels.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 10:34:47 AM

AD line as fallen to -446.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 10:34:33 AM

EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventories up 400,000 barrels.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 10:34:31 AM

ES seems to be consolidating at daily lows suggesting lower lows later.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 10:34:07 AM

EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories down 600,000 barrels.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 10:33:33 AM

Gold is also falling.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 10:33:09 AM

Crude breaks its ON low on the inventories data.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 10:32:30 AM


Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 10:28:53 AM

Dear Diary - The VIX will lag in fast moving markets after economic data is released.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 10:26:15 AM

Crude inventories out in 5 minutes.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 10:11:49 AM

Obviously I was wrong in the statement that ES would not have follow through. Markets are getting quite bearish.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 10:09:52 AM

The VIX is not making new daily highs so I don't think the new lows ES just made will hold and have follow through.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 10:08:54 AM

ER is the first market to make new daily lows. Now ES has as well.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 10:07:39 AM

10:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 10:07:02 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Sales of existing homes plunged 4.1% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 6.33 million, the lowest since January 2004, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday.

Economists were expecting a decline to 6.56 million, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch.

The report shows a continued weakening in the housing market, with inventories up sharply while prices are softening. Sales are down 11.2% in the past year.

"Boom markets are cooling significantly," said David Lereah, chief economist for the realtors group. Sales fell in all four regions.

The housing market and the economy are "fragile," Lereah said. Some markets that never boomed are now weakening because of sluggish local economies, such as Michigan, Ohio and parts of the Northeast, he said.

"It's important for the Fed to understand how fragile the housing market is, and how fragile the economy is," Lereah said. "The economy impacts housing, and housing impacts the economy."

The inventory of unsold homes rose 3.2% to a record 3.856 million, a 7.3- month supply at the July sales rate, the highest since April 1993. The past year has seen the sharpest increase in inventories on record, Lereah said

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 10:04:53 AM

You never know how the market is going to react to data so it is not a good idea to have a trade on during these releases.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 10:03:39 AM

The 10:00 Housing Data has certainly put a dent in the bullishness today.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 10:02:21 AM


Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 10:01:29 AM

Market did not like the housing data.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 10:01:23 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPY $130.18 : YM 11,368

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 10:01:18 AM


Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 9:56:41 AM

Remember the reports out at 10:00
10a.m. July Chicago Fed Natl Activity Index. Previous: +0.34.

10a.m. July Existing Home Sales. Consensus: -1.1%. Previous: -1.3%.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 9:55:55 AM

The VIX thinks so.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 9:55:18 AM

Now NQ to a new daily high. Will ES follow?

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 9:54:48 AM

YM leads the pack to a new daily high.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 9:54:27 AM

ER's PDH is 711.60 which seems to be support for this market today.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 9:51:43 AM

VIX just broke to a new daily low suggesting ES new daily highs.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 9:51:01 AM

The markets still are overbot and need to move sideways a little longer before a move upward can be sustained. Moving upward from an overbot state is not healthy so the most bullish thing the markets can do now is to continue to consolidate for at least the rest of this week. And that seems what they plan on doing today.

This of course is horrible for daytraders but hang in there for more volatile times are ahead.

Jeff Bailey : 8/23/2006 9:49:29 AM

YM short entry alert ... short the YM here at 11,377, stop 11,393, target 11,317.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 9:45:10 AM

The $ is respecting the downward channel and suggests it will once again test the lower trendline of the channel. This is bullish for Gold. Link

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 9:42:18 AM

TICKS are bullish.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 9:41:12 AM

If ER closes above 716 it would the first close above the 100EMA since May.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 9:39:12 AM

ER has broken its PDH.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 9:38:36 AM

VIX opens within its PDR but I cannot read anything much past that yet.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 9:36:48 AM

AD line is bullish +750 and AD volume above 0.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 9:31:44 AM

Dateline MartketWatch - Already down 9% in the past year, sales of existing homes are expected to decline further in July, economists say. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch are forecasting a 0.9% drop to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.56 million in July.

The National Association of Realtors will release July sales data at 10 a.m.

Shortly after the existing home sales figures, data on weekly inventory supplies are due, with crude-oil and gasoline inventories expected to drop.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 9:27:18 AM

Here is the chart of the Nat Gas emini showing what I thought was either a bearish triangle or a bullish wedge. it looks like the bullish wedge has been confirmed however, I still think the 7.44 swing high will be resistance. Link

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 9:19:01 AM

Notice how NQ broke below the 50EMA in May and stayed there until it broke back above on August 17th. This tells me the 50EMA is a very good line in the sand for NQ and a sustained move above the 50 is a sure sign of bullishness. Now NQ needs to break above the 100EMA which I think it has a very good chance of doing. Link

Keene Little : 8/23/2006 9:11:56 AM

Here's that SPX chart that didn't post properly below: Link

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 9:09:38 AM

I find it so interesting that ER has found resistance at the red downward trendline, which is also the 100 and 200EMA. Since I believe ES and YM will move higher i have to believe this one will as well. Link

Keene Little : 8/23/2006 9:06:10 AM

When I stand back and look at the price pattern in August my first reaction is "this is going higher". The relatively sharp move up from Aug 11th has been followed by a sideways consolidation. These sometimes break down and when they do they do it quickly. But the odds favor a resumption of the rally. So I played with some trend lines, channels and Fibs and came up with a potential projection for SPX (120-min chart): Link

This is obviously just speculation but if price continues to march higher in a parallel channel and meets a Fib projection for the internal wave count then we'll see SPX reach just above the May high by getting close to 1330. But if the market rallies into early September then the top of the parallel channel will be just above 1340. On the daily chart the trend line along the highs from January 2004 through March 2005, which has held price down all year (except briefly broken in May), will also be just above 1340.

The Gann Square of Nine chart (remember that one?) shows a price "target" of 1324 based on the October 2005 low of 1168 and this was achieved in May (high was 1326). The next target is 1345. Hmm, right near those trend lines. The Gann chart also shows a cycle date, based off October 13, 2005, of August 28th. Therefore, based on all this I'm beginning to think the market is headed for a new high for the year, with a target of SPX 1345 by the beginning of September.

The only fly in the ointment (from a timing perspective) is that the daily chart gives me the impression we're going to see a longer sideways consolidation that lasts for at least a couple more weeks and that would merely delay the new high. It also means we could see a pullback to the bottom of the channel (1285-1290 depending on how long it takes to drop). That would suggest a rally into the end of September before the Big Sell Off begins. And with that I'm putting my crystal ball away. Good luck today.

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 9:04:06 AM

Same story for YM with support at ~11200. Link

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 9:01:46 AM

If the bulls can burn off the overbot RSI with a sideways move I will be very impressed and that seems to be exactly what is happening. And even if ES did retrace I see solid support at 1280-1282. Link

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 8:57:47 AM

The Natural Gas daily chart had me wondering if this market was building a bearish triangle or a bullish wedge. From yesterday's and the overnight session I will have to go with a bullish wedge. I will show the daily chart later.

Oil broke its PDL during the overnight session with a low of 72.30 (using the October emini QM).

Gold stayed within its PDR overnight but is catching a bid as I type. Gold's ON high has been 637.90. I think gold is in a sideways move until it resumes its upward trek, however, I will not let that bullishness cloud my judgment like I did when I ignored the July bullish MACD in the equity because of my bearishness. I will become bearish on Gold if the charts tell me it is time.

TBonds were quite neutral overnight. Link

Jane Fox : 8/23/2006 8:48:32 AM

Good morning all. The equity markets had a mostly neutral overnight session and all stayed within their respective PDRs. WE have not seen any kind of retracement this week making the probability of a move higher all the more likely. Link

Market Monitor Archives