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Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2006 2:01:20 AM

Good gravy! NYSE Comp. ($NYA.X) Link

Tougher tests for bears right now than bulls.

Slap a WEEKLY Pivot retracement on the NYSE (R2= 8522.90 and S2= 8090.86) and 38.2% retracement (level above WEEKLY Pivot) overlays 8,356.

I haven't calculated MONTHLY Pivot Levels for the NYSE, but it wouldn't surprise me a bit if that 8,388 close from 05/16/06 doesn't "explain" the recent resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2006 1:38:29 AM

Hey! There's those $NYSI and $NASI 08/15/06 11:28:23.

$NYSI Link up to +460

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2006 1:35:42 AM

Hmmm... probably need to check out the mid-caps too.

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2006 1:34:55 AM

In the 08/15/06 MM at 10:39:07 PM and prior posts 10:03:27 PM I made some small cap notes/observations Link

I want to review them, see if there's a trade in the making.

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2006 1:30:19 AM

IWN $71.44 is down 1.52% the past 5-days.

IWO $69.63 is down 1.97% the past 5-days.

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2006 1:28:37 AM

See the "difference" between the BIX.X and the RUT.X?

Should the BIX.X continue its rise, watch for the RUT.X to really play some "catch up."

Remember! "Financials" are the largest weighting for the small-cap RUT.X.

For several days we sat, sat, sat on BOOM, then all of a sudden it goes Boom! There might have been some type of sector-related news on Tuesday, but I couldn't find it. That's how small caps tend to trade. An institution can't come in on a single session and buy 500,000 shares in a single transaction of a small cap without drawing attention and driving price (sometimes they will, but it IS intended to get the market's attention), especially if liquidity is an issue.

I would think the iShare Russell 2000 Value (IWN) $71.44 would hold a greater number of "financials." I do NOT know this for fact, but would associate a lower multiple relative to the RUT.X as being a "financial" than perhaps a technology-like group of stocks, that tend to trade higher multiples.

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2006 1:15:14 AM

Index Pivot Matrix for Friday at this Link

RUT.X still fractions red on the month. This may start to confirm my thoughts last week that a large portion of gains for the DIA/SPY/QQQQ was from NAKED CALL traders scrambling to get squared up. Yes, many RUT.X component stocks do trade with options, many don't. However, those like Dynamic Materials (BOOM) that do trade with option, their open interest is often times very small.

Anticipating a question as to "why was DIA/SPY down while INDU/SPX up?" by Thursday's close.

Yesterday (Wednesday) afternoon, prior to the cash session close and then after, I noted the PREM stuck in a rather large buy program. Cash closes at 04:00 PM EDT, but DIA/SPY session doesn't end until 04:15 PM EDT. So, DIA/SPY close notably higher than INDU/SPX on Wednesday. As that arbitrage is removed at Thursday's open, we get some difference today, in what was a rather flat session of trade.

When I note a buy, or sell program premium being generated during a session, that is similar to the above example as it relates to arbitrage. However, when a premium is generated, it is being measured by PREMium. In simplistic form, a "buy program" is simply a moment in time when the CASH market advances faster than the futures market, which gives us the observation that a BASKET of SPX stocks are being bought, which creates the positive arbitrage between cash and futures. Moments later, things need to come into "equilibrium" and a futures trader will observe a bump up in futures (usually) as the arbitrage is removed.

Just the opposite for a sell program premium. Selling of a BASKET of SPX stocks that creates negative arbitrage, and to compensate, or bring things back into equilibrium, futures often make a dart lower.

There are MANY more minute buy/sell programs during a trading day, but when a premium is generated, it may serve a trader well to benchmark the price level the premium is generated, and note it against a PIVOT level, or level that keeps showing up over time.

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2006 12:29:58 AM

YM 5-minute interval chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/25/2006 12:09:36 AM

YM up 20pts from Thursday's settlement at 11,321.

I haven't been keeping up to date on Tropical Storm Debby, but will by tomorrow morning. Where is she? What's her path? When might she hit?

If Debby looks like she might come near oil/gas platforms in Gulf of Mexico this weekend, the Daily R1 should provide resistance, and perhaps a trend lower to Friday's close.

Thursday's DAILY S2 was a pretty tight correlation with July's close.

We'll have three (3) levels of overlapping support tomorrow at YM 11,239 , 11,244 and DAILY S2.

DAILY Pivot/WEEKLY Pivot will get early attention.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 11:56:30 PM

YM Pivot Matrix for Friday at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 11:24:29 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Today's Activity


Day traded short 10 of the mini Dec. Gold futures (yg06z) at $632.00 (Stop= 635.40 : Tgt= $625.20) and exited prior to Thursday's close at $630.00. 1pt=$3.32 (+2pt/contract, or $+66.40)

Keene Little : 8/24/2006 10:10:28 PM

Friday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 8/24/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 7:49:26 PM

In my mind, based on observations I've gone over with here, and in the Market Wraps, what is/was "the price level" where it seemed things changed for the QQQQ?

Yes! Right around $37.25.

It was either yesterday, or Wednesday that Jane said "this weakness" is what bulls want to see, or is healthy.

These declines in the morning, then some "get back" to the close. Doesn't if feel like market participants are in an accumulation phase? Let it come in, do some buying. Let it come in, do some buying. Let it come in, do some buying.

It is a widely held belief that institutions DUMP a position quickly, but they ACCUMULATE positions slowly.

Now... look at a bar chart of the QQQQ. What do you see developing?

QQQQ Link ... the STRONGEST head/shoulder bottoms will find the VOLUME at the RIGHT SHOULDER.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 7:38:28 PM

NASDAQ Summation ($NASI) 20-point box chart at this Link ... Currently -480, but do you see the "buy signal" from this measure of a/d at -580?

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 7:35:19 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

At today's closing reading, the NASDAQ's 5-day NH/NL ratio "f" reverses lower by 3-boxes.

However! What looks to be setting up and something to be alert to, is some type of 1-day "sell off," but look for that to be the "c'mon back" day for bears to call it quits, and turn into bulls to year's end. WATCH/MONITOR the new lows, even in recent sessions, traders should be picking up that "down days" don't see the types of quick builds in New Lows.

Here's an updated NASDAQ NH/NL "f"ive-day ratio and 10-day (X, O). NASDAQ 10-day needs a CLOSE reading of 38.00% or better for "X to get the square." Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 6:26:35 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 6:22:32 PM

October Nat. Gas (ng06v) settled up $0.197, or 2.81% at $7.203.

November settled $9.235

December $10.555.

I'd say some "hurricane/tropical storm Debby risk" already factored in on November contract.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 6:16:40 PM

October Crude Oil (cl06v settled up $0.60, or 0.84% at $72.36.

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 4:20:44 PM

Marc you can say that for all markets. Quite bullish isn't it?

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 4:18:08 PM

Surprising resilience for techs in the face of higher oil and overbought conditions. SMH closes up almost 1%, NQ is flat, but NDX up .30%. Interesting day.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 3:58:09 PM

Shorts just might give me my up close.

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 3:57:03 PM

Here is a bullish chart. NG gapped up when news came out that Barrick Gold was making an unsolicited $1.5 billion bid for it. The stock has not even thought of filling that gap and has built a bullish triangle. Then MACD is moving downwards while the price is moving sideways. I think this stock is primed for a move higher. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 3:56:53 PM

My stepson bought a Mac book with Intel dual core, and I must say I was amazed at all the goodies they give you and how fast the machine is. 1399 and he gets everything, including built in camera (you ahould see that software) bluetooth and a gorgeous screen. All the kids want that one, and you can bet it will be the hottest notebook at Christmas, especially since Vista won't be out and that you can run Windows XP natively. Intel will benefit.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 3:56:36 PM

MSFT $25.72 +0.19% ...

DE $73.32 -0.10% ...

YG06Z $630 -0.45% .... day traders should be closed out from $632.00.

I've got to leave for awhile, will update things later this evening.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 3:53:33 PM

AAPL server using INTC Zeon is actually cheaper than the same one at DELL. Whatever business AMD will pick up with DELL, INTC might just make some up with AAPL. That computer is just hot.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 3:52:21 PM

INTC finally got out of bed. AMD drops a little. Traders pushed that one too high and expectations that AMD will win the price war are a little overdone. Cramer recommended AMD yesterday, I usually short a stock after the initial bump from his picks.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 3:49:37 PM

Pretty sure QM (October) is going to hit 73 soon. NQ holds on to 50% today. SOX and SMH bullish, but that's about it. Oil stocks.

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 3:46:57 PM



Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 3:39:36 PM

Bearish day trade short cover alert ... Let's cover the yg06z at $629.70, LIMIT $630.00.

$HUI.X lower toward the close too at 341.82 -1.10

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 3:39:08 PM

Target on the profiled YG (December gold)short at 633.60 remains 604.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 3:35:40 PM

I commented at the open that the bullish durable goods order for computers could win the day in the end, although so far it is only the SOX. But that is a start. Oil is a major thorn right now, but traders will start speculating that the ride up is based on a storm that has not even formed into a hurricane. And it takes a really big hurricane to halt gulf production for long.

Keene Little : 8/24/2006 3:32:03 PM

We got a leg up from yesterday's low and now another one from today's low. The current pullback should now lead to a relatively strong move higher that should easily break above 1305 and clear this log jam of an area between 1299 and 1305. If ES instead drops below today's low then the longer term uptrend line at 1288 is the target.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 3:23:05 PM

This is the worst hour of the day for a gold futures trader that want to be flat by the close. Especially the $100/point/contract trader. Light volume, and middle of the day's range.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 3:20:05 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 3:04:44 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 2:59:44 PM

Exxon/Mobil (XOM) alert $70.42 +1.13% ... new 52-weeker and all-time high!

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 2:59:36 PM

But I bet he won't do that again. Will he?

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 2:58:39 PM

Not sure about that Jane. He's the one that jumped through the side window of the topper while I was driving and cost me about $4,000.00 to fixe his back hip and broken front leg.

He's still working to pay me back for that one, and will be for the next several years. Link

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 2:50:45 PM

You have a smart dog!!

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 2:43:00 PM

30-year YIELD ($TYX.X) down 1.3 bp at 4.937% and getting close to its bearish vertical count. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 2:39:41 PM

Yes Jane I am. Drake the dog has been bugging me for a couple of years now to get him a big yard to play in.

He "barked a bottom" in the 30-year yesterday, told me prices had come in now and told me to lowball an offer after the existing home data was due out, as that would have the seller willing to take the 20% below comparable offer.

Darned if he wasn't right and the seller accepted the offer.

Not sure about the 30-year though. However, that can always be refinanced if need be.

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 2:27:49 PM

Buying a house Jeff?

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 2:27:02 PM

The QCharts symbolf for the $100 Dec. Gold "ZG" is ea06z

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 2:24:32 PM

I'd suggest closing out 1/2 of the short, and hold a yg06z overnight (less leverage, so less overnight risk of trade moves against a trader).

However, I'm dealing with mortgage lenders and realtors into the weekend, and may have to run in and out during the day.

The "ZG" carries a LOT more leverage, and I don't, or wouldn't want the overnight exposure considering the current geopolitical risks.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 2:19:17 PM

Day trade place order to cover alert ... Let's place an order to cover the yg06z on a pullback to $628.30.

yg is $630.20 here

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 2:16:31 PM

NQ quotes, sorry.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 2:16:20 PM

PP is 1561.25.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 2:16:12 PM

Blah! ....

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 2:16:12 PM

We did hold 1555 and off we go. Support is now at 1558.25.

Keene Little : 8/24/2006 2:15:10 PM

If you took the edge-of-the-cliff long play again today you should now be OK. Stop stays at a new daily low until we get another pullback and then the stop can be raised to just below that pullback. Then next leg up, after the one from yesterday's low, should be a strong one.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 2:08:17 PM

QM is just so oversold, it is making me nervous as it is capable of a push to 73, which would make NQ go for new lows. So use tight stops.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 2:07:40 PM

If NQ holds 1555, this day could actually close up. Watch QM 72.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 2:05:52 PM

NQ 50% today is 1555.50.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 2:03:29 PM

yg06z ... same type of chart I've been showing for GLD and gc06z at this Link

"Humans" would be based on retracement.

"Computers" based on Pivot Levels.

Keene Little : 8/24/2006 2:00:28 PM

NQ's bounce off today's low looks like it should get a minor new high, probably with short term negative divergences, followed by a pullback and then a continuation higher again.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 1:58:22 PM

"Humans" should feel some pressure to liquidate today.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 1:57:42 PM

Gut feel, based on observation this late in the session is that gold closes at weekly Pivot, if not just below.

Keene Little : 8/24/2006 1:55:59 PM

This consolidation near the lows for YM and ES is not making me feel very bullish here. At this point a break of the day's lows would be bearish. NQ however looks bullish.

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 1:50:31 PM

Jeff I think your entry was spot on!

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 1:49:46 PM

Yes it can Jane. I've been trading some gold futures in my own account for the past couple of months.

I was profiling some GLD trades as swing trades, but a couple of traders requested some mini gold futures profiles.

I was thinking today might be a "break down" day after multiple session settlements below $640.50

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 1:31:18 PM

BTW great trade!

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 1:31:08 PM

Jeff I have traded Gold and it is one fickle little market. Take profits when you have them because it can turn on a dime.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 1:24:39 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 1:16:19 PM

C'mon ... one more little push lower.

yg06z 628.00 here

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 1:07:38 PM

Dateline WSJ - SAN FRANCISCO -- Apple Computer Inc. is issuing its own big recall of laptop computer batteries, on the heels of a recall by rival Dell Inc. that cast a harsh light on the perils of a widely used battery technology.

The Consumer Product Safety Commission said Apple plans to recall 1.1 million batteries in the United States, plus 700,000 batteries sold in other countries. The batteries were made for Apple by a unit Sony Corp.

A CPSC spokesman said Apple's move is the second-largest recall on record in the computer and consumer-electronics sectors.

The recall affects lithium-ion batteries, which have been linked to reports of overheating and fires. The batteries were designed for Apple iBook G4 and PowerBook G4 models that were purchased between October 2003 and August 2006, the CPSC spokesman said.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 1:03:16 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 12:58:07 PM

Gold and dollar index are an exact "matched pair" in today's DAILY Pivot level. dx00y had edged above its WEEKLY Pivot, Treasury yields lower with 10-year either side of its DAILY S1 (similar to gold)

Tab Gilles : 8/24/2006 12:56:51 PM

Emisphere Technologies (EMIS $8.15) Continues decline, P/O $7.50 As per 8/18 8/21 & 8/23 posts. Using Sept '06 $10 Puts (MTQUB.X) current Bid $1.80 / Ask $2.00 (8/18/06 $1.55/$1.80). Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 12:50:07 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

I have sent a request to QCharts for them to allow decimal multipliers. Please be advised that Profit/Loss for YG06Z is not accurate.

Keene Little : 8/24/2006 12:42:23 PM

ES is hitting its uptrend line from Aug 11th through yesterday's low, currently at 1293. YM broke its uptrend by about 10 points so far but is holding on. Still an edge-of-the-cliff play to go long here.

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 12:29:07 PM

I will remain bullish on ES as long as it stays above the bottom trendline and since I think ES is the driver in this bullish rally, a SUSTAINED break of that lower trendline would be turn me back neutral and into sit and wait mode on all markets.

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 12:26:14 PM

Here is a 240 minute chart of ES. Notice how the "fans" from the July 18th lows match up to swing highs and lows. The lower "fan" finishes off at ~1280 and what I think is the line in the sand for the bulls. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 12:25:11 PM

QM has support now at 71.925, 50% yesterday. That makes it difficult for NQ to get out of the QQQQ August gap.

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 12:06:53 PM

NQ is also testing its daily 50EMA Link

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 12:05:44 PM

NQ is testing its PDL at 1548.

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 12:04:17 PM

I was on the phone so I missed these bear flags - hopefully some you caught them. Link

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 12:01:59 PM

Markets are moving downward in an orderly fashion.

Keene Little : 8/24/2006 11:54:18 AM

The uptrend line for YM from Aug 11th through yesterday's low is at 11302 so this is where it should hold. Going long with a stop at 11290 is a nice tight trade.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 11:41:00 AM

I have to step away. Close the trade if QM holds 72.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 11:39:34 AM

If oil bids strongly again, get out.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 11:39:03 AM

Long 1553, move stop up to 1551.75.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 11:36:02 AM

Overnight lows are holding. QM drops below 72, but I;m not sure that bid is over. NQ is a scalp long , stop 1551. No more.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 11:34:35 AM

QQQQ August gap is 37.70/37.99.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 11:32:26 AM

Qcharts symbol CL06V.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 11:31:58 AM

Here is the Nymex termination schedule for those new to trading QM and oil. QM September contract ceased trading on 8/21. Unless you are trading the full contract (CL, big bucks), the e-mini in play is now October. Use the CL October chart if you have Qcharts and don't want to pay the Nymex fee ($50). You can get QM intraday real-time for free using quotetracker and IB. Link

Keene Little : 8/24/2006 11:28:02 AM

YM has pulled back to the same uptrend line from Aug 11th that supported yesterday's pullback, currently near 11310. This needs to hold otherwise the bears win and we'll see it drop below yesterday's low. Another edge-of-the-cliff long play here and it enables you to keep your stop tight.

Tab Gilles : 8/24/2006 12:00:40 PM

$GASO & VLO Unleaded gasoline testing 200/300 ma, RSI/MACD bottoming. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 11:22:15 AM

If QM (October, can we please all quote the month that is trading?) holds 71.50, there is risk to 73

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 11:21:14 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 11:16:47 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Natural-gas futures touched a two-week high Thursday, headed for a third winning session with traders eyeing Tropical Storm Debby, which is expected to become a hurricane, as well as a slightly bigger-than-expected climb in last week's U.S. natural-gas supplies.

"Tropical Storm Debby is expected to strengthen into the season's first named hurricane of the season over the next few days though NOAA characterized it as a 'minimal' system that will remain 'fortunately out to sea'," said Michael Fitzpatrick, an analyst at Fimat USA.

"Though Tropical Storm Debby is unlikely to pose any threat to the continental U.S., the National Hurricane Center is also tracking three waves off the northern coast of South America," he said in a note to clients.

The storm is currently moving west-northwest of the Cape Verde islands and is expected to continue on that track for the next day or so.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 11:14:29 AM

It;s about oil and since it is oversold, there is risk here.

Keene Little : 8/24/2006 11:12:28 AM

If I add a parallel up-channel for price action since the Aug 11th low I see that the top of that channel hits the top of the longer term up-channel from the July 18th low at 1334.50. I changed the Fib projection that I showed in the chart posted last night (10:15 PM below) to show two equal legs up from Aug 11th and it's at the same 1334.50. Makes one want to go hmmm... It makes for a good long play from here and even juicier short play from there. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 11:07:45 AM

My 11:02:05 post was in response to Jane's "know what you're trading" comment (10:47:03).

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 11:05:36 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 11:03:38 AM

YG is for the 33.3 oz emini and ZG is the 100 oz. emini. I trade ZG.

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 11:02:10 AM

Jeff check my 10:51 post :) Two minds that think alike :)

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 11:02:05 AM

Here's the yg06z mini-sized Gold Futures contract specifications Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 10:59:30 AM

yg06z short entry alert $632.00

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 10:55:16 AM

These two are no longer bullish. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 10:53:57 AM

QM has support at 71.50 going forward, so watch that level.

Keene Little : 8/24/2006 10:54:22 AM

So far the pullback is a 3-wave move and is obviously correcting the move up off yesterday's low. A 62% retracement of that leg up is at 1295. If the 2nd leg down in this morning's pullback goes to 162% of the 1st leg down that's at 1295.25. That's where I'd look to go long this pullback.

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 10:52:36 AM

ER tags its PDL and finds support. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 10:51:25 AM

YM 5-minute interval chart at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 10:51:02 AM

QM drops.

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 10:51:13 AM

Here are the specs for YG Link

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 10:47:03 AM

If trading Gold with YG or ZG make sure you know what your risk is. ZG is $100/point so if you enter at say 632 and have a stop at 635 that is $300. Not sure what YG's $/point.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 10:45:17 AM

QM 71.90.

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 10:44:49 AM

Gold is now testing its ON low.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 10:43:36 AM

Day trade short setup alert ... for the yg06z 629.90 -0.47% ... let's look to go short back up at $632.00, stop $635.40, target $625.20

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 10:43:11 AM

VIX to new daily highs confirms ES's new daily lows.

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 10:42:37 AM


Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 10:37:41 AM

EIA Weekly Nat Gas Storage Table Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 10:36:57 AM

QM bid 71.75

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 10:36:11 AM

YM 11,313 ... session lows and WEEKLY Pivot.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 10:35:18 AM

Gold lost that 50 dma again. Bear flag on the daily is now confirmed and target is 605.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 10:33:10 AM

SOX and SMH still green, so I will probably try another long down there.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 10:32:37 AM

Looks like overnight lows in sight again. 1558.25 is now R.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 10:28:37 AM

QM october is at 71.625.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 10:28:53 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

I replaced the NYMEX's Dec Gold futures with the CBOT's (greater liquidity for day traders)

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 10:28:17 AM

Just so readers do not get confused, I am quoting October oil. QM september contract is no longer trading.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 10:26:19 AM

SOX is green and VXN is red. TRINNQ is bullish at .57. I have to say, oscillators look toppy, but there is a recipe here for new highs today if 1558 holds.

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 10:20:58 AM

Oil is below all its major MAs but has not been there long enough for the MAs to cross and is also finding support at the June 14 lows 70.90. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 10:20:43 AM

Oil needs to drop a little more to get that extra short covering kick.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 10:18:30 AM

If we crack that, 1566 is next, but we are getting a little overbought on the 30 and 60.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 10:17:49 AM

NQ 1562.50 is 50% yesterday and a stumbling block for now.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 10:16:16 AM

NQ pivot. Nice turn so far.

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 10:15:29 AM

Gold is still in a sideways move but Gold bugs would really like to see this market trading ABOVE the 50EMA. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 10:15:09 AM

Some noise on oil bid here. NQ stops should be moved up to 1557 now.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 10:13:29 AM

Jane, I only watch VXN and QQV, as I think that market leads and VIX is to crowded with hedge selling. But you are right, it gives mixed signals.

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 10:12:59 AM


Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 10:11:14 AM


Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 10:10:20 AM

Here is the third reversal, right on cue. 1558.25 is now must hold support.

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 10:07:03 AM

Marc the VIX is though.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 10:06:41 AM

VXN not confirming this drop.

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 10:06:31 AM

VIX and TRIN hugging daily highs is telling me ES will continue to hug daily lows.

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 10:03:19 AM

TRIN was warning us about these new daily lows.

Jeff Bailey : 8/24/2006 10:02:38 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 10:02:16 AM

Market didn't like the New home sales data.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 10:01:52 AM

Watch for a retest of overnight lows.

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 10:01:31 AM


Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 10:00:54 AM

Bond bid. Housing must be weak.

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 9:56:28 AM


10a.m. July New Home Sales. Consensus: -2.7%. Previous: -3.0%.

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 9:53:54 AM

Leading astronomers say Pluto is no longer defined as a planet, The Associated Press reports.

Think of all the textbooks that will have to be changed.

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 9:50:59 AM

TICKS daily low is 1 - this is bullish.

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 9:50:38 AM

TICKS have mostly stayed above 0.

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 9:49:50 AM

TRIn as climbed to 1.22 and should start to worry the bulls.

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 9:42:02 AM

Sorry ES not quite yet.

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 9:41:17 AM

Gaps have been filled on all markets now.

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 9:37:13 AM

It is very likely these gaps will fill before the markets resume their upward trek. Link

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 9:34:35 AM

VIX opens within its PDR but TRIN opens below supporting the bullish ADs.

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 9:34:07 AM

AD line is a bullish +950 and AD volume above 0. The bulls have the ball.

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 9:32:41 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices moved higher early Thursday, sending yields a bit lower, after the Commerce Department reported an unexpectedly steep drop in monthly durable goods orders that suggested the Federal Reserve can afford to end its rate tightening program soon.

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 9:31:53 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Ford Motor Co. rose more than 4% in pre-market trading Thursday following a newspaper report that the Ford family is considering taking the company private in an attempt to restructure the business away from public view.

Going private could cost as little as $13.34 billion, according to a Thursday report by USA Today.

The Ford family owns about 5% of Ford's (F) outstanding shares, the paper said, and the family controls 40% of the company through a separate class of stock. The auto manufacturer had no comment on the report, according to the newspaper.

The shares were up 32 cent to $8.08 in pre-open trading on Inet

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 9:18:05 AM

Here is a closeup of the NQ daily showing the 50EMA support. Link

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 9:16:23 AM

NQ's 50EMA has become its line in the sand (as I have stated before) and was support to yesterday's drop. This market's projection using the Fib retracement tool is 1627. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 9:16:01 AM

1572 could be tough and where I would close a long from yesterday, if we get there.

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 9:14:59 AM

The FDA has approved the sales of the "morning after" pill or Plan B without a prescription.

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 9:11:10 AM

If we did indeed hit a swing low yesterday I think YM could rally to at least the 127.20% fib level at 11590. Link

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 9:07:48 AM

I still maintain that a drop to around 1280 would have been a lot healthier for the bulls and allowed some of the overbot to burn off. But heh we just follow the charts and take what we can get. Right?

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 9:06:13 AM

Although I thought ES should/could retrace back to the lower trendline of its upward channel which is also the 200, 100 and 50 EMA it may not do what I think it should. I have now drawn another trendline from the July 7th highs at 1290 and joined it to yesterday lows at 1292 and I suspect that was our spot to get long. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 9:01:35 AM

They will try and nail some stops above PP at 1561.25, and possibly build a base there after the open.

Keene Little : 8/24/2006 9:01:12 AM

I'm short term bulish the equity market as depicted in my ES chart below (10:15 PM) but one thing to watch is how YM deals with the trend line across the highs since the beginning of July. Basically it needs to get through recent highs in order to prove it's not in some kind of bearish wedge here. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 9:00:31 AM

30 and 60 mns in overbought territory now, so we are slowing. We could get one more move up, then a reversal, followed by another reversal. Going to be an interesting open.

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 8:57:49 AM

Although Gold broke its PDL overnight it has now regained about 50% of its PDR. On the daily chart Gold continues to meander sideways and remains neutral.

Oil sort of consolidated at its PDL and that could be read as bearish but bullish for the equity markets.

Natural Gas on the other hand consolidated at its PDH overnight and even broke those highs.

Bonds also broke its PDH and is breaking its ON high as I type. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 8:57:30 AM

The TRAN could take a hit, but the street might be looking ahead at lower oil, which would in effect negate the future bearishness of overall durable goods. This is why the markets are holding up well on the release. If oil goes up again, all bets are off for a soft landing. My take is that oil will hit low 60's upper 50's by year end. We hit 80 (October contract) and that was a top for the medium term, barring another Katrina.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 8:53:26 AM

Rite Aid's acquisition and a bullish durable goods for computers could provide some support, but will it be enough when the home numbers come up at 10? NQ pivot is at 1561.25. There is resistance above that at 1566,1568,1569.50. Overnight lows are 10 day ema and support.

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 8:52:02 AM

The 8:30 data hardly made a blip on the equity markets. Although ER made a new overnight low at around 8:50 it was not related to the Durable Good report. ES and YM are breaking to new overnight highs as I type. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 8:48:33 AM

Jane, the durale goods number was bullish for computers. You have to dig deeper and exclude transportation area:
Orders excluding transportation equipment rose 0.5 percent, more than forecast and the third straight increase, suggesting manufacturing remains a bright spot in the economy. Link

Keene Little : 8/24/2006 8:49:31 AM

Seeing Marc's comments on the bonds reminded me to post a weekly chart of TNX (10-year yield) to show that I think Marc's right about a reversal coming up. But I differ in opinion about the longer term prospects for bonds, at least through the end of the year. If the uptrend line for yields from May 2005 holds (currently near 4.78%) then we should see a reversal to higher yields (lower bond prices). Link

Most analysts whom I respect feel interest rates will decline as the Fed either holds tight or maybe even starts back down once they realize the economy is slowing. Their opinions make me question this chart but based strictly on this chart I have to say interest rates are headed higher not lower. This would say the Fed is not done tightening.

Looking at the EW count for the move up from 2003, and the Fib projections, I'm thinking we'll see bonds sell off into the end of the year as the 10-year yield heads higher to 5.6%. That kind of move in bonds would very likely depress the equity market which is what I also think will happen (not to mention further depress the housing market and dampen consumer spending).

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 8:46:36 AM

Dateline WSJ - Initial jobless claims decreased 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 313,000 in the week ending Aug. 19, the Labor Department said Thursday. New claims for the week ended Aug. 12 were revised up to 314,000 from a previously reported 312,000.

The median estimate of 16 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had signaled jobless claims would rise 3,000 last week to 315,000.

The four-week moving average of new claims rose 3,500 last week to 315,250.

More broadly, the labor market remains fairly robust, with an overall unemployment rate of 4.8%.

Jane Fox : 8/24/2006 8:44:23 AM

Dateline WSJ - WASHINGTON -- Demand for durable goods pulled back more than expected in July after a strong gain the month before as orders fell for cars, civilian aircraft and electrical equipment.

Meanwhile, the number of new applicants for unemployment insurance fell last week, the third straight decrease, suggesting that labor markets remain relatively healthy.

Durable-goods orders decreased by 2.4% last month to a seasonally adjusted $211.99 billion, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Durables had gone up by 3.5% in June, revised from a previously estimated 2.9% increase.

A key barometer of business spending -- orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft -- increased by 1.5%, after rising by 1.4% in June.

The 2.4% tumble in overall orders surpassed Wall Street expectations. The median estimate of 23 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had durable goods falling by 1.0% during July. The drop was only the second in six months

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 5:53:34 AM

ZB (30 year) getting noticeably overstretched. Watch the 110 mark. I am a bond bull, but we are due for a pullback. Everyone is factoring in a bearish (bond bullish) durable goods number at 8:30, I would exercize caution if trading ZB long at this point. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/24/2006 5:40:49 AM

VIX risk: Link

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