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Keene Little : 8/29/2006 11:57:06 PM

I showed this YM chart after the close on Monday and it's still a good chart to keep an eye on. Tuesday afternoon's dip found support at the uptrend line from July 18th with a slight under-throw. Now watch to see if we get an over-throw to a minor new high, perhaps up to 11445. That's where we'd have two equal legs up from the low last Friday. This chart is bearish so I'd try the short side after the expected pop higher here. Link

Keene Little : 8/29/2006 11:00:40 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 8/29/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 5:07:25 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

SPX NH/NL tally was 31:0. 5-day NH/NL ratio 80.3% (would reverse up 3-boxes to 80%), 10-day NH/NL ratio 82.8%

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 4:52:59 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 4:42:10 PM

September Nat. Gas (ng06u) settled up $0.344, or +5.31% at $6.816.

October Nat. Gas (ng06v) settled up $0.064, or +0.94% at $6.876.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 4:29:04 PM

U.S. To Provide $800 Million To Farms, Ranches Hit By Drought

Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns plans to announce the aid Tuesday afternoon in South Dakota.

The drought aid includes:

-$50 million in block grants for hard-hit states,

-$18 million from emergency conservation funds,

-$11 million from a grassland conservation program,

-and the U.S. Department of Agriculture would accelerate $700 million in planned payments to cotton, grain, sorghum and peanut farmers.

Two sources confirmed the details on condition of anonymity because Johanns hadn't yet announced the aid.

The administration has resisted a $4 billion drought-aid plan in Congress because it would go only to those who already get government subsidies, about four in 10 farmers. House leaders and President George W. Bush have opposed the aid, but senators in June added the aid to a farm-spending bill.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 4:25:35 PM

Shell: To Close 2 Florida Terminals Overnight on Ernesto

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 4:12:38 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPY $130.64 : YM 11,374

Keene Little : 8/29/2006 4:10:10 PM

Looking over NDX after Marc's comment makes me agree with him on that possibility. NDX 1634 is the 62% retracement of the decline from April and it's right on top of the 200-dma. Drawing in a parallel line to the one along the August highs shows that's where price found support today. Link

So a run back to the top of the channel where it would have two equal legs up from Aug 11th (I think a double zig-zag, or an A-B-C-X-A-B-C, is playing out and that's why I'm looking for where it would have two equal legs up from the 11th) puts it at 1647.6 (cash) by the end of this week. Could happen.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 4:06:12 PM

About the only thing I see "bearish" today was that DE $74.75 -0.59% didn't finish green.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 4:01:17 PM

History will face a formidable test tomorrow.

Next to last day of the month, Dow & S&P up only once last 10 years (StockTrader's Almanac)

Marc Eckelberry : 8/29/2006 4:01:31 PM

Exiting INTC when it gets going is the toughest trade out there, because it can stay overbought for days and even weeks. What I recommend is using weekly RSI 14P and let it get up to between 60 and 70. 70 is an instant exit, regardless of what you hear or read. We still have room, as you can see on the weekly chart and a swiss cheese of gaps above. Support is now crystal clear at 19.35. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 3:58:59 PM

Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 715.00 +1.18% ... threatens a close above 714 and 38.2% (high/low close) retracement. Throw in the 200-day SMA for good measure.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 3:38:53 PM

October Crude Oil (cl06v) settled right on its 200-day SMA and at WEEKLY S2.

Tab Gilles : 8/29/2006 3:34:38 PM

Intel annotated chart.. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 3:33:52 PM

Goldcorp (GG) $30.07 +1.17% Link ... complete "madness" in my opinion with such ferocious buying in Treasuries.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 3:29:56 PM

Applied Materials (AMAT) $16.65 +1.95% Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/29/2006 3:29:46 PM

The most bullish aspect of the market right now is the persistent wall of worry and skepticism in the broader media. I think we have much more upside, frankly, at least until 200 dma and 61.8% 2006 at NDX 1634.

Tab Gilles : 8/29/2006 3:28:25 PM

INTEL (INTC)$19.54 +0.16 (+0.77%) Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 3:19:43 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 8/29/2006 3:14:27 PM

After the pop higher the pullback is now looking corrective so the bounce should continue. Now we're back to needing the uptrend line from the 23rd to break (dipped below it at 1298.75 on that 2:00 dip. With that line holding we could be in a choppy move higher. I'm back to thinking this is going to head higher again but in all honesty this choppy market is driving me nuts. Credit spreads continue to be the trade of choice in this market.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/29/2006 3:14:18 PM

Tab, I certainly hope so.

Tab Gilles : 8/29/2006 3:07:44 PM

Marc, The Fed isn't going to do anything until it meets again in September, Oil is down, Israel and Hezbollah seem to be maintaining a cease-fire, and August 22nd went by with no Isalmic end of the world event...only issue remaining is the 31st UN deadline for Iran. Will that too be a non-event? If so the varsity team from Wall Street returns to the floor after coming home from the Hamptons. The scenario is set for a rally in my opinion. At least the charts point to that. Guess we'll have to see.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 3:06:08 PM

Dollar/bond action sure doesn't look like "inflation" response

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 3:05:36 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/29/2006 3:00:57 PM

I consider the 20 month MA to be the demarcation line. A monthly chart of NDX confirms that: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/29/2006 2:58:06 PM

Tab, I would love to see NDX close the month well above 1583, 20 month MA. If that happens, it will turn into support and bears will have a hard time pushng it down. It would be just like 1998. On the other hand, failure to close above 1583 would set up 2 consecutive monthly closes below the 20 month ma and usher in a confirmed bear market. We are a few days away from a historical decision by the markets. I am leaning on the bullish side.

Tab Gilles : 8/29/2006 2:52:00 PM

Here's the $NDX at June 1st, 2006. Where is it going? Link Link

And Currently... Link Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/29/2006 2:47:43 PM

Weekly PP at 1563.75 is now support for NQ and stops should be moved up to 1563 is you are holding a long. Daily PP is R, so I'm flat for now. Oil inventories on tap tomorrow. Last Monday gap is 1570.75, still not closed (1585) and a move back in there sets up new August highs for sure. But we are not there yet.

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 2:43:56 PM

The Russell is on a roll for sure.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/29/2006 2:43:23 PM

Look at ER go.

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 2:43:14 PM

ER's resistance is from the August 18th highs at 716.40.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 2:40:10 PM

SMH $33.50 +0.78% ... back for a second test of WEEKLY R2.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/29/2006 2:37:07 PM

Bernanke looks to hold off fom here and let lagging inflaton indicators cool off. Good for him, if he had listened to those hawks, the stock marjet would be on its way to a crash.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 2:36:14 PM

SPY $130.34

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 2:35:58 PM

10-year Yield ($TNX.X) up just 0.8 bp now and right on its WEEKLY Pivot.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/29/2006 2:35:23 PM

Jobs data on Friday will be key.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 2:24:42 PM

DJ- FOMC (headlines contd)

Pause Allows Members To Assess Econ Data

Saw 'Limited Risk' In Deferring Further Tightening

Lacker: Slower Econ Not Enough To Reduce Inflation

Housing A 'Downside Risk' For Econ Growth Outlook

'Considerable Uncertainty' For Housing Mkt Future

Marc Eckelberry : 8/29/2006 2:24:29 PM

Gold has a small bid on inflaton fears, but oil is below 70. The bond market is not too worried. NQ support is now 50% today at 1565.75

Tab Gilles : 8/29/2006 2:24:16 PM

Minutes: Fed Feared Hurting Economy Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/29/2006 2:21:38 PM

You have to wonder why we gave Alaska to a foreign company, but that is par for the course for our government these days:
Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- BP Plc, the world's third-largest oil company, is being investigated for possible manipulation of crude oil and gasoline prices, raising concern that the company has failed to manage its U.S. operations. Trading of crude by BP is being reviewed by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission in Washington and gasoline by the Justice Department, BP spokesman Robert Wine said. London- based BP is "cooperating fully," he said. The CFTC alleged in June that BP attempted to corner the propane market.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 2:21:05 PM

DJ- FOMC (headlines)

Most Saw Core Inflation Declining 'Gradually'

Upside Inflation Risks Still 'Significant'

Recent Inflation Information Not 'Encouraging'

'Many' Members Said Aug Pause 'Close Call'

'Many' Said More Firming 'Could Well Be Needed'

Tab Gilles : 8/29/2006 2:19:47 PM

FOMC minutes releases and QQQQ up... 1 minute chart. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/29/2006 2:18:08 PM

QM loses 70 and ZB gets another bid. We could see NQ 1570.75, but lots of shorts hitting the pivot. I'd rather let it breathe a little.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 2:17:42 PM

Pretty good volumes on the "dip and rip" for DIA/SPY/QQQQ

Marc Eckelberry : 8/29/2006 2:16:52 PM

NQ pivot. I booked profits here at 1568. Wait and see.

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 2:16:44 PM

You've got to ask yourself "Is there enough power behind this buying to break resistance?"

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 2:15:14 PM

ER to new daily highs. What a day!!!

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 2:14:36 PM

Federal Reserve minutes show concern about raising rates too much, but pause in rate tightening at last meeting a 'close call.'

This is why the markets sold off.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 2:14:07 PM

10-year Yield ($TNX.X) up 1.8 bp now at 4.815%.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/29/2006 2:14:06 PM

If QM loses 70, NQ will hold the bid as long as ZB stays above 109.20/32.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/29/2006 2:12:50 PM

Watching bonds paid off. You could see ZB catching that bid while NQ was dropping and the headfake was set up. But now we have R at 1565/1566 as oil gets back above 70. QM R is 70.30.

Tab Gilles : 8/29/2006 2:08:11 PM

$NDX Link Link Link

Keene Little : 8/29/2006 2:07:47 PM

Trading this market is like listening to your mother when she told you to go play in traffic (not that my mother ever told me that).

Keene Little : 8/29/2006 2:06:55 PM

Yep, head fake. Nasty people.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 2:06:42 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPY $130.15 : YM 11,340

Marc Eckelberry : 8/29/2006 2:06:22 PM

Breakout above 1561.75.

Keene Little : 8/29/2006 2:06:11 PM

Hmm, quick recovery there after breaking the uptrend line. A push back above 1300 will tell us that was a head fake bear trap. Easy to do in this environment.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/29/2006 2:06:09 PM

Rates are dropping and gold can't get above 620 even with the QM bid. This could be supportive of equities. Watch NQ 1558.25 now.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/29/2006 2:05:24 PM

Triple bottom 1556 and lows are holding as rates drop a little, but oil is above 70 now.

Keene Little : 8/29/2006 2:04:12 PM

ES has been consolidating on top of the uptrend line line from Aug 23rd but just broke down through it. Now we'll keep an eye on the downtrend line from yesterday since a break of that line will mean a larger upward correction is in progress. Once that bounce is finished it should be a good setup for a short play. Link

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 2:02:38 PM

Markets did not like what Fed Fisher had to say. New daily lows in ES and YM.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 2:02:15 PM

FOMC Minutes at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 2:01:30 PM

MSFT $25.67 -1.07% ....

AMAT $16.42 +0.5% ...

GG $29.40 -1.07% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 8/29/2006 2:01:26 PM

OIl bids to 70, but bonds hold steady.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 2:00:35 PM

FOMC minutes being released ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 1:51:05 PM

Fed's Fisher making some comments, but nothing new that I see.

Keeping inflation at bay "not an easy task." .... Watching all inflation measures....

Marc Eckelberry : 8/29/2006 1:47:32 PM

Upside breakout would be NQ 1561.75, breakdown 1558.25. Forget about putting stops at the lows, they must be a little higher. A hit of the lows will not hold.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/29/2006 1:43:03 PM

Green PC ratings. Interesting that DELL ranks very high and APPLE very low. So much for those enviromental geeks that push APPLE: Link

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 1:41:02 PM

(Tbonds and Gold) :)

Marc Eckelberry : 8/29/2006 1:39:33 PM

As FOMC approaches, your attention must shift to ZB and YG.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/29/2006 1:38:48 PM

QM dropping, or it could be a headfake. This is a day to commit to your bias with a wider stop, otherwise you will get stopped out every minute. Or stay flat.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 1:32:16 PM

Brutal trade now .... action was early this morning.

Things should liven up a bit with FOMC minutes at 02:00 PM EDT.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/29/2006 1:31:21 PM

Busted on a QM bid.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/29/2006 1:30:23 PM

NQ 2 mn, for you scalpers. As you can see, we broke out of the triangle and have created a series of bull flags. Looks weak, but neverthelss, it's there. Bullish bets are off under 1560: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/29/2006 1:27:07 PM

Bull flag holding so far NQ 2 mn. Support is 1560.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/29/2006 1:25:47 PM

Watch QM.

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 1:14:49 PM

TICKS +800

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 1:13:33 PM

That last bear flag was indeed NOT a bear flag. Love that MACD!

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 1:12:52 PM

John Maudlin is one of the more conservative analysts I follow.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 1:12:22 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 1:11:30 PM

Here is an excerpt from John Maudlin's last email. So, the simple conclusion from the analysis above is that this is indeed the biggest housing slump in the last four or five decades: every housing indictor is in free fall, including now housing prices. By itself this slump is enough to trigger a US recession: its effects on real residential investment, wealth and consumption, and employment will be more severe than the tech bust that triggered the 2001 recession. And on top of the housing bust, US consumers are facing oil above $70, the delayed effects of rising Fed Fund and long term rates, falling real wages, negative savings, high debt ratios and higher and higher debt servicing ratios. This is the tipping point for the US consumer and the effects will be ugly. Expect the great recession of 2007 to be much nastier, deeper and more protracted than the 2001 recession.

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 1:09:18 PM

I am on the exact same page as Keene although our numbers may differ a tad and we may not see a retracement before the next rally (not sure. But I see bullishness into Sept and a possible challenge of the May highs. But once that rally plays out the bear market I believe we have transitioned into will rear up and it may be ugly.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/29/2006 1:04:08 PM

I still think NDX will close the week and the month above 1583 (NQ 1588), 20 month MA.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 1:02:24 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 8/29/2006 1:01:36 PM

If ES drops to a new low today then I think that will an indication that we're into the leg down that should finish a larger sideways/down correction from the Aug 18th high. The wave pattern of this move suggests to me that there will be another larger rally once the pullback is complete. That would mean a rally into September and should be the last leg up before setting up an excellent long term short position. Link

But bears will have to continue to exercise great patience. This ES chart suggests a pullback to 1291 or as low as 1281. Who knows, maybe even close the gap from Aug 15th at 1273.25. First thing that has to happen, for a short play to work, is the uptrend line from Aug 11th needs to firmly break, otherwise we could be getting just another throw-under bear trap.

If we get the break it could make for a very nice short play after the next bounce (which should happen soon) . But once that leg down is complete we should get the rally to new highs, maybe even challenging the May high. At least the beginning of September, after Labor Day, could be very bullish.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/29/2006 1:01:04 PM

If QM breaks 69.50, NQ could rally up to 1566/1568.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/29/2006 12:58:35 PM

Inside day rules apply, so a break of 1556 would set up fib projections from yesterday. I consider NQ 1551.75 as line in the sand. The way things are shaping up though, it looks like a close around 1560. Don't expect a rally today to hold for very long, until we get EIA data tomorrow, but I also don't think we will break down completely either.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/29/2006 12:50:12 PM

We are in for some chop between 1557 and 1561.75. Keep in mind that if 1556 holds, this is an insdie day which could mean chop. Put up your fibs yesterday H/L.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/29/2006 12:46:30 PM

The failure of QM to get past 70 is what put in a floor at the exact low from yesterday (1556). Obviously, it's still about oil, especially since CC had a lot to do with that. Watch QM 69.50/70 zone.

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 12:46:00 PM

Internals are improving and it is starting to look like we may have found the bottom - for now.

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 12:41:19 PM

So far NQ is the only market to break its PDL. Link

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 12:31:38 PM

Markets are building new bear flags but I'm not sure those will play out with a break to the downside because of the MACD.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 12:13:45 PM

Swing trade put option alert ... let's take two (2) of the Goldcorp GG Oct $30 Puts (GG-VF) at $2.20.

GG $29.43 -0.97% ... target $27.00 in the underlying.

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 12:07:38 PM

NYSE MOST ACTIVE STOCKS: LU F XOM PFE S

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 12:06:25 PM

I got into the ES short too late and it is now time to cover it. Bullish MACD divergences on all markets is not a time to be short. Link

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 11:44:02 AM

TBonds continue to fall putting upward pressure on the yields.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 11:41:53 AM

YM moves to new lows of the session.

Keene Little : 8/29/2006 11:40:51 AM

Keep an eye on ES 1298 to see if support holds and bullish divergences develop. That would be a signal that we could be due a bigger bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 11:36:02 AM

Bank of Canada to Buy Back Up to C$1B of Bonds Sept. 5

DJ- The Bank of Canada will conduct a repurchase operation Sept. 5 on behalf of the Government of Canada, for the repurchase of up to C$1 billion (US$900 million) of Government of Canada marketable bonds.

In a news release, the Bank of Canada said the offering deadline is 11:15 a.m. EDT (1515 GMT) on that date.

It said the settlement date is Sept. 7.

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 11:24:22 AM

I am going to short ES with a stop at 1301.50.

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 11:20:22 AM

Bear flags building. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 11:19:28 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 11:18:16 AM

Dateline WSJ - NEW YORK -- Consumer confidence suffered a major blow in August amid rising anxiety over the state of the economy, and fell to its lowest level since last fall.

The Conference Board, a private research group, reported Tuesday that its index of consumer confidence for August fell to 99.6, from a revised 107.0 in July. August's reading was the lowest since the 98.3 seen in November, and it was well under the 102.5 reading predicted by economists.

"Consumer confidence lost significant ground in August," said Lynn Franco, who leads the group's Consumer Research Center. "Less favorable business conditions coupled with a less favorable job scenario have resulted in the largest one-month decline in confidence since Hurricane Katrina last year," she said.

The Conference Board's report comes at a time of mounting signs of an economic slowdown. Housing data have cooled markedly, while overall growth statistics also have moderated. The environment is such that the Federal Reserve felt, even in the face of elevated inflation readings, it had the room to hold interest rates steady when it meet earlier in August

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 11:17:25 AM

Dateline WSJ - Schering-Plough agrees to $435 million payment to settle probe into sales and marketing practices.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/29/2006 11:18:03 AM

NQ found support at R1 and 10 day ema (1557/58). It could very well hold today, although we are due for a trip to 20 dma at some point. R is 1570.75.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/29/2006 11:16:07 AM

QM hit my short target at 69.50 and it's time to book profits. The gold short should be closed as well at 617, as I think 616 could hold if oil bases from oversold conditions. I still think we will hit 604, but it's best to not get too greedy. I would wait for the next oil rally to re-enter shot there again, My year end target for oil is in the low 60's, upper 50's, but we could see a bounce any day. It will be counter-trend, but any storm on the horizon will trigger some short covering, so careful now.

Keene Little : 8/29/2006 11:14:06 AM

The little consolidation here looks like it's getting ready for another move lower. But it looks like it could be a small 4th wave correction in the move down from yesterday's high. If so then a new low would be followed by a bigger bounce so I wouldn't chase a new low here. Wait for the bounce.

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 11:10:12 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Barnes & Noble Inc. on Tuesday disclosed it received a subpoena from a federal prosecutor over stock-option grants it made, in what could be the first step toward bringing a criminal charge against the bookseller.

Barnes & Noble (BKS) said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing that on Friday, the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York served a subpoena seeking documents regarding the Manhattan-based company's stock-option practices.

Barnes & Noble, one of a growing number of companies targeted by various authorities for scrutiny into the grants awarded to executives, said it will cooperate fully with the document request.

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 11:04:50 AM

VIX climbing but TRIN falling. This usually means chop.

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 11:03:14 AM

The Census Bureau reported that 37 million Americans were living below the poverty line last year -- about 12.6% of the population. That's down from 12.7% in 2004, but census officials said the change was statistically insignificant. The median household income was $46,300, a slight increase from 2004.

Last year was the first year the poverty rate hadn't increased since before President Bush took office.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 11:02:42 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 11:01:23 AM

Markets consolidating at daily lows is usually bearish.

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 10:59:08 AM

Vix to new daily highs telling me that ES's daily lows will not hold.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 10:57:49 AM

Dorsey Wright's BUILding sector bullish % achieved "bull confirmed" status yesterday.

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 10:57:18 AM

Gold has hit a low of 615.50. It now do or die for Goldbugs.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 10:48:37 AM

QQQQ $38.27 ... coiling either side of its DAILY S1/Weekly Pivot correlation.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 10:37:20 AM

YM short stop alert 11,340

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 10:34:54 AM

YM short lower stop alert to 11,340.

YM low so far 11,329

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 10:33:38 AM

YM short finger on the button alert with YM 11,337

Keene Little : 8/29/2006 10:29:39 AM

Here's the test--under-throw or a real break down this time? We've been seeing a lot of small bear traps the past few days and of course the danger is that these begin to lull bulls into the false belief that we'll just get another one. So it's risky either way right here.

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 10:26:13 AM

Gold had better hang on the 615-616 support or this chart turns bearish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 10:24:55 AM

YM short lower stop to break even with YM 11,338.

Watch that WEEKLY Pivot.

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 10:20:40 AM

AD line is -143 and AD volume is below 0.

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 10:20:22 AM

Both VIX and TRIN are climbing.

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 10:19:32 AM

Yesterday was bullish but yet resistance was not broken on the daily charts so the onus is still on the bulls to close above resistance. Can they do it?

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 10:18:45 AM

Microsoft (MSFT) $25.80 -0.57%

Applied Materials (AMAT) $16.43 +0.61% ...

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 10:18:34 AM

Overnight lows have been breached.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 10:15:35 AM

YM 5-minute interval chart at this Link

Keene Little : 8/29/2006 10:11:44 AM

The choppy pullback from yesterday's high continues to look corrective which means we should see it press higher again. Seems to be a recurring theme lately. Let's see if the uptrend line at 1300.25 holds (watch for an under-throw as it's been doing several times).

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 10:08:39 AM

Consumer confidence tumbled in August to its lowest level in nine months.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 10:05:36 AM

YM short entry alert go short the YM 11,363, stop 11,378, target 11,306.

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 10:03:47 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 10:01:14 AM

* CONSUMER CONFIDENCE LOWEST SINCE LAST NOV.
* AUG. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE BELOW CONSENSUS 102.7
* AUG. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE FALLS TO 99.6 VS REV 107 JULY

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 10:00:47 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPY $130.30 : YM 11,357

Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 9:48:05 AM

1st Apple Laptop Fire Reported in Japan; Officials Order Investigation

AP Story Link

AAPL $66.00 -1.46% Link

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Jeff Bailey : 8/29/2006 9:38:27 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPY $130.40 : YM 11,362

Keene Little : 8/29/2006 9:37:48 AM

Since ES has been marching up its uptrend line from Aug 11th, a pullback to there again would take it down to 1301. This has been an ugly rally and I haven't felt good about the upside for the past few days. I still feel that way. But the sellers have been conspicuously absent and the market keeps drifting higher. That may continue through Labor Day so caution is required if you try the short side. I'd want to see a break below 1300 at this point before thinking we have something more than a minor pullback in progress.

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 9:32:32 AM

Oil is now breaking its overnight and PDL.

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 9:01:11 AM

Dateline WSJ - Federal investigators are examining whether BP PLC manipulated crude-oil and unleaded-gasoline markets, signaling a rise in regulatory scrutiny of the British energy giant, said lawyers and traders close to the case.

BP, which has been summoned before Congress next week over problems in its Alaska pipeline operations, already faces a civil complaint filed by federal commodities regulators for allegedly manipulating much of the U.S. market for propane. The separate investigations on crude oil and gasoline could intensify public and political pressure on BP because these markets are bigger and directly affect most American households.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has sent subpoenas to BP and energy traders in the crude-oil probe, which is focused on possible manipulation of the global over-the-counter market in 2003 and 2004, according to lawyers and traders who have been contacted or briefed in the civil investigation. (The over-the-counter market includes trades conducted over the phone or electronically in products not listed on exchanges, or in marketplaces that regulators can't see.)

The separate gasoline inquiry, which has been under way more than a year and includes a criminal probe by the Justice Department, is examining a single day's trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange in 2002, the lawyers and traders close to the case said.

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 8:59:14 AM

Whereas resistance is very clear on the ES, YM and ER charts, support is very clear on the NQ chart. Notice that ES and YM both challenged August 17th highs yesterday but ER and NQ did not. Link

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 8:56:30 AM

ER peeked above its red downward trendline yesterday but ran smack dab into the 100 and 200 EMA so this market is up against resistance as well. Link

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 8:54:22 AM

Another thing to watch on the ES and YM charts is the MACD and RSI. IF these markets move higher MACD and RSI have to move higher as well and if they do not then I think the rally may be coming to an end. Since the markets' July 18th's infamous bullish MACD divergence, the MACD and RSI has followed price's every move. When the MACD and RSI start to "diverge" it is time to take note.

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 8:48:33 AM

Ym has a very clear chart as well with a blinking neon sign showing you resistance. Support, although not as clear as resistance, is quite clear as well. Bulls need a close above resistance to get out this market moving upwards. Link

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 8:44:33 AM

BTW, ES's PDH was 1307.50 and on August 18th it was 1307.75 so the bulls need to break this resistance and a close above it would be nice as well.

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 8:42:25 AM

ES's daily chart remains bullish. Notice how the major MAs are moving up with the bottom of the channel. This is a very clear chart IMHO. Link

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 8:40:02 AM

Gold was mostly netural overnight but it is now breaking to a new overnight low as I type.

Oil hugged its PDLs overnight and I would not be surprised to see its PDL break.

TBonds broke their PDLs but not by much.

Natural Gas broke its PDL and has now broken out of its daily bearish triangle. Link

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 8:34:29 AM

I just read Keene's and Tab's comment about the Proshares ETFs that are now available to investors who want to take advantage of a bear market. Wouldn't it be nice if those ETFs were made available to 401(k)s?

Jane Fox : 8/29/2006 8:30:53 AM

Good morning all. All markets were neutral to bullish overnight. Since ER closed the strongest yesterday it is not surprising it was the one market that broke its PDH. Link

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