Option Investor
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2006 1:31:07 AM

Last 3 weeks, buyers have been eating up QQQQ on every pullback to WEEKLY Pivot. Weekly S1s have been solid beginning of August.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2006 1:27:22 AM

QQQQ ... prelim MONTHLY Pivot $38.05. (see also 01:23:06) and 8/14/06 ... QQQQ has been bumping $37.95 on 8/17 and again today.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2006 1:23:11 AM

GE, MSFT, C, PG, PFE have put on some weight.

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2006 1:23:06 AM

Good gravy! ... OEX almost closed at a multi-year high set on 05/09/06 at 603.92.

Tomorrow's close will determine September MONTHLY Pivot Levels ... MONTHLY Pivot looking 596.50.

Covered OEX with some detail on 8/14/06 Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/31/2006 12:28:29 AM

My updated current to end of year oil price range is $65 to $74. (factors: supply/demand; dollar; Treasury yields; weather; geopolitical)

Weather can change on a dime, but I have confidence in Colorado State University's recent update.

Geopolitical is greatest wild card. One analyst may have summed it up best when trying to rationalize some Middle East leadership. "Crazy perhaps, but not stupid."

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 11:42:21 PM

Tropical Storm Kristy right behind John ... 5-day cone Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 11:36:14 PM

Hurricane John 5-day cone Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 11:15:42 PM

Be aware that over the next couple of weeks, year-ago comparisons will be skewed due to hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 11:12:20 PM

EIA's Weekly Gross Inputs, Refinery Operable Capacity, Pct. Util. of Op. Capacity Table found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 10:50:34 PM

SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) stockpiles of Crude Oil has been little changed (give-take 1,000 barrels/week) for seven weeks and currently stands at 687,842,000. Down 1.8% from last year's 700,500,000 barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 10:42:18 PM

EIA's This Week In Petroleum Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 10:41:22 PM

EIA Weekly Crude Oil, Gasoline, Distillate, Nat. Gas Table found at this Link

Keene Little : 8/30/2006 10:00:48 PM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 8/30/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 8:42:21 PM

EIA's This Week In Petroleum Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 8:20:30 PM

If you think volumes are light from 02:00 to 04:00 PM EDT, don't expect a lot of liquidity overnight.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 8:13:05 PM

dx00y ... 84.91 ... DAILY Pivot Levels for tomorrow are ... 84.77, 84.87, Piv= 84.96, 85.06, 85.15.

WEEKLY S1= 84.72 and WEEKLY Pivot= 85.13.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 8:10:20 PM

YG06Z ... 628.30 ... could go 632.90 between now and tomorrow's close.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 6:33:26 PM

Novellus (NVLS) ... mid-quarter update has company sticking to prior guidance. Revenue expected to be up 7-10% sequentially (between $440-$450 million), with EPS between $0.49-$0.52.

Recent consensus $447.1 revenue and $0.50 EPS.

Company said bookings now expected to be flat to up 5% sequentially, slightly less than July's guidance of flat to up 7%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 6:24:42 PM

California Governor: Deal Reached On Greenhouse Gas Caps

DJ- California will become the first U.S. state to impose a cap on all greenhouse gas emissions, including those from industrial plants, under a landmark deal reached Wednesday by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and legislative Democrats.

The agreement marks a clear break with the Bush administration and puts California on a path to reducing its emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases by an estimated 25% by 2020.

It also gives Schwarzenegger a key environmental victory as he seeks re-election this fall.

"We can now move forward with developing a market-based system that makes California a world leader in the effort to reduce carbon emissions," the governor said in a statement.

The bill still needs legislative approval. It would require the state's major industries - such as utility plants, oil and gas refineries, and cement kilns - to reduce their emissions of the pollutants widely believed to contribute to global warming.

The key mechanism driving the reductions will be a market program that will allow businesses to buy, sell and trade emission credits with other companies.

Details about that program weren't immediately known.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 6:07:49 PM

Today's 99 new highs at the NASDAQ are most since June 30 .... 121:62

I have a feeling I'm going to miss some fireworks next week.

I'll have some option orders ready to go by tomorrow's close, which will be open for next week when I'm out of the office.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 6:07:42 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

NASDAQ NH/NL Ratio Chart at this Link

StockCharts.com's NASDAQ Comp Bull % ($BPCOMPQ) Link still in O's to 38%, current reading 42.07.

NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) Link ... X's to 36%, currently 36%.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 5:35:34 PM

Just caught last portion ... didn't hear anything other than "things look strong, but in this industry, you just never know what is around the corner....."

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 5:35:31 PM

Novellus call ends ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 5:35:26 PM

Novellus call underway Link , but I've yet to see a full press release of their earnings.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 5:35:20 PM

DJ- S&P Price/Earnings Ratio at 16.66

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 5:34:45 PM

Anything "chip related" shows a sharp down-tick at 04:45-50 PM EDT ... SMH, NVLS, AMAT, KLAC, INTC

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 5:34:40 PM

Somebody's going to be upset .... I'm showing KLAC's bid/offer $44.76 x $44.90 on LevelII

Marc Eckelberry : 8/30/2006 5:11:49 PM

That July 3rd gap (1587.75/1601) makes me a little ambivalent with oil now at 70.40. We have come a long way since the June lows, 150 NQ points and we are in need of a breather.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 5:34:26 PM

KLA-Tencor (KLAC) $44.76 +2.80% Link ... about 1,000 shares broken between 6 trades from $43.38 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 5:33:57 PM

Applied Materials (AMAT) $16.95 +1.55% Link ... $17.02 extended on light volume.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 5:33:48 PM

Novellus (NVLS) $27.75 +0.87% Link ... $28.20 on call.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 4:57:19 PM

Ohhhhh that $38.00 level looks like solid support when observing NASDAQ's NH/NL ratio chart.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/30/2006 4:54:03 PM

This could be good news for bulls. As I said, NDX needs to close above 20 month MA tomorrow (now at 1584).

Marc Eckelberry : 8/30/2006 4:53:33 PM

NVLS delivers.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 4:33:43 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 4:33:38 PM

Well ... it looks like history was a little too much for the SPX/OEX, but the INDU bucked the probabilities of a negative trade (Next to Last Day Dow and S&P Up Only Once Last 10 Years)!

It looks like a "bear" had a very expensive bet to get the SPX to close where it did.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 4:22:50 PM

October Crude (cl06v) PnF chart ($0.50) with today's trade to $69.00 at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 4:06:37 PM

ER was able to break its daily resistance but daily resistance held the big caps back.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 4:06:12 PM

Wast tempting to hold a gold futures short overnight, but 50/50 proposition.

dx00y's DAILY R2 and WEEKLY Pivot correlate tomorrow, which if traded, likely brings weakness to gold, which as you've seen here in the market monitor some nights, doesn't always hold until the cash open.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 4:01:34 PM

October Crude (cl06v) came back from the $70.00 level as its 200-day SMA and its DAILY S2 to settle back above its WEEKLY S2.

Some technical damage done intermediate-term, but Iran U.N. deadline and some hurricane activity held things together.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/30/2006 3:56:43 PM

I would not be surprised to see a down day tomorrow if we close below 1585

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 3:56:00 PM

Day trade short cover alert ... Let's get flat the mini Gold (yg06z) $626.60 and cover limit $627.00

Keene Little : 8/30/2006 3:42:48 PM

Not surprisingly the market is being held up. The short side isn't working yet. Maybe YM will tag that 11445 level tomorrow and then it'll be time to try it again. I just don't like the long side when I see it chopping its way higher and negative divergences are appearing. Surprises are often then to the downside.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/30/2006 3:40:24 PM

They pushed it up to 1587.50, gap open July and NDX 20 month MA.

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 3:36:38 PM


Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 3:32:56 PM

BTW did you all notice that we are now trading the December contract for TBonds and Tnotes.

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 3:29:44 PM

The Economic Report docket for tomorrow is overflowing.

8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims. For Aug 26 Wk. Previous: -1K.

8:30a.m. July Personal Income. Previous: +0.6%.

8:30a.m. July Personal Spending. Previous: +0.4%.

10:00a.m. July Factory Orders. Previous: +1.2%.

10:00a.m. July Conference Board Help-Wanted Index. Previous: 33.

10:00a.m. Aug Chicago Purchasing Managers Index. Previous: 57.9.

11:00a.m. July Kansas City Fed Mfg Index. Previous: 11.

2:30p.m. Money Supply. For Aug 25 Wk.

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 3:27:25 PM

I would be VERY surprised to see a move one way or the other before the close.

Keene Little : 8/30/2006 2:58:30 PM

A short entry from 1-1/2 hours ago hasn't done too much but I still think it's the right side to be on. This should continue lower. The danger of course is that this market is being easily pushed around and it seems big money is intent on pushing it higher. After Labor Day that may change.

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 2:57:06 PM

There is nothing in the internals that is giving an indication of direction.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/30/2006 2:48:12 PM

COMP key support is 2174. I have to leave, be careful today, the low volume will whip you around.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/30/2006 2:47:29 PM

What I feared is starting to happen. NQ broke down out of the triangle as oil bid above 70. It was asking for too much to expect the oil bulls not to step in at 200 ema 68.50 and they did just that. As I said, key reversal and it could put a damper on equity bulls for a few days. Oversold oil and overbougt equities, you do the math short term.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/30/2006 2:19:42 PM

Oil back above 70. Key reversal day there.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/30/2006 2:07:11 PM

Here it is: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/30/2006 2:05:41 PM

The bottom of the triangle fo NQ is around 1580.50 and if it breaks, then bullish bets are off today. If it holds, we will get new highs. Right now, that scenario looks dubious with the double top and bearish divergence, but one never knows on such a low volume day.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 1:49:38 PM

I have to take some signed documents over to my realtor and will be away from the MM for about 90-minutes. (unplanned)

Day trade update alert ... YG06Z short currently trades $625.60, stop is $628.00, target is $620.80.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/30/2006 1:47:33 PM

NQ triangle 5 mn, normally bullish, and continuation, but QM is getting a wild bid all of a sudden.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/30/2006 1:44:36 PM

Double top NQ with a bearish divergence. Retail and banking are down, but SOX is up. Tough day.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/30/2006 1:42:45 PM

INTC hit 20 for a second, does not look like a bad tick, and then they dropped it. Since it was the 200 ema, it makes sense we stall. I prefer to pick it up lower now, as we have 9 to 1 calls at the 20 strike.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 1:41:38 PM

Dollar Index (dx00y) 85.01 ... pounding at its DAILY Pivot (85.06).

With bond yields pluning and commodity prices falling this is perhaps the last ingredient to bring some meaningful weakness to gold.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 1:37:40 PM

Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $36.31 +4.30% .... oh my!

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 1:36:48 PM

Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 721.87 +0.98% ... session highs here.

Has 1.5 day's to get a trade at MONTHLY R1. Only equity-based index in my pivot matrix yet to trade M R1.

Keene Little : 8/30/2006 1:29:39 PM

After a small 5-wave move down from today's high we are now in a corrective bounce. We should get another leg down and therefore there's a scalp short play right here.

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 1:28:41 PM

YM's high on August 18th was 11418, which just happens to be today's high.

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 1:27:14 PM

Now I can say ER is the first market to break its resistance. Link

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 1:23:34 PM

Dateline WSJ - A federal judge overturned a jury's recent $50 million award against Merck & Co. in a lawsuit filed by a Vioxx user.

The $50 million damage award in the federal Vioxx case was excessive, and a new trial must be held on damages for a retired FBI agent who suffered a heart attack after taking the painkiller, a federal judge ruled Monday.

"No reasonable jury could have found" that Gerald Barnett was entitled to $50 million in compensatory damages, U.S. District Judge Eldon E. Fallon ruled.

In the New Orleans verdict earlier this month, the federal jury, comprised of eight men, deliberated for about four hours before awarding $50 million in compensatory damages to Mr. Barnett, 62 years old, who had taken the painkiller for 33 months. The jury awarded Mr. Barnett an additional $1 million after attorneys for both sides presented brief arguments in a punitive damages trial.

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 1:21:07 PM

I do not see a lot of upside as long as the TRIN is hovering at daily highs and is printing at 1.35.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 1:17:15 PM

Merck (MRK) $41.09 +0.48% ...

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 1:16:41 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 1:07:20 PM

WSJ Alert - A federal judge has overturned a jury's recent $50 million award against Merck in a lawsuit filed by a Vioxx user who suffered a heart attack.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/30/2006 1:06:23 PM

VIX and VXN very low considering the headwinds we have coming. This is troublesome.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 1:05:29 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 1:01:45 PM

Exxon/Mobil (XOM) $67.93 -2.13% ... retraces 19.1% of its 06/13 to 08/24 low/high close range.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/30/2006 12:53:20 PM

QM bid above 69, but NQ not budging. 1 PM turn coming and the action will start warming up again.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 12:49:01 PM

10-year Yield ($TNX.X) down another 1.4 bp at 4.769% ....

Marc Eckelberry : 8/30/2006 12:51:08 PM

July 3rd gap open for NQ is 1587.75 and close is 1601.75. Along with the August gap close at 1585, a pretty tough wall is set up there. But bulls are digging in and they want that July gap it seems. Knowing how pre-holday action goes, they could very well get up there. For now, they need to hold on to 1579.50 (which they are doing)

Keene Little : 8/30/2006 12:45:15 PM

I'm starting to think we might have seen the high, or if not then it's mighty close. Looking at the daily chart of SPX gives me a very bearish feeling here. If we're completing an a-b-c correction to the May-June decline, from the June low as depicted in this chart, the c-wave looks very close to completion. Link

An ascending wedge for the c-wave is very common and that looks like what we have here. The only thing I see going for the bulls is that we could get a little throw-over above the pattern which would mean about SPX 1312-1313 (so ES 1316 maybe). RSI is starting to show negative divergence as it's threatening to roll over. It could be a bit premature to short it here but I'd certainly be buttoning up stops on long positions and be thinking how you'd like to play a longer term swing trade to the south.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 12:44:43 PM

CRB Index (cr00y) 325.25 -0.75% ... breaks below yesterday's lows.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/30/2006 12:38:43 PM

That said, the unwinding of the Ran premium in both oil and gold should Iran compy tomorrow could be quite bearsih for oil and gold. Tough decision. NQ back up above 1579.50 and it seems we could still get another push if that holds. This is a dangerous day to trade, no doubt.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/30/2006 12:29:15 PM

Bear flags for NQ. Dollar fall is giving gold a boost and we could also see a reversal in oil soon so I am no longer short gold. I recommended lightening up the short yesterday at 616 and I am not quite sure we will hit 605. The GDP numbers migt have given a floor to gold. When in doubt, get out, and I do not regret that decision, even if gold drops further. 633.60 to 616 was a nice trade and we will take it. Resistance is 627 and I would re-enter short here on a failure, but right now, it could get some legs into the weekend and I am staying away from it. In fact, it will be used as a hedge over the holiday by many institutions.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 12:26:10 PM

YG's WEEKLY S1 $625.70 and DAILY R1 $626.10 is "zone" I would (have) looked to short.

Daily Pivot $620.80 is day trader's target.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 12:24:03 PM

yg06z short market, limit 625.30 alert

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 12:20:21 PM

ES peeks to a new daily low but it does not have follow-through because the VIX did not test its daily highs. Very simple.

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 12:19:13 PM

TRIN is testing daily highs and the VIX is climbing. This is not bullish folks.

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 12:18:30 PM

There is a lot about this bullish wedge that does not fit. For example, it does not have a prior trend to reverse or the MACD does not have a divergence so I would not try a long position because of it but use it to maybe close short positions for the decline maybe coming to a end however temporary.

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 12:13:09 PM

QM is forming a bullish wedge. Link

Here is an explanation of this wedge. Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 12:12:52 PM

yg06z ... 625.70

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 12:12:00 PM

Day trade short Gold futures setup alert short 10 of the yg06z on an up-tick to $626, stop $628, then target $620.80.

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 12:08:27 PM

Interesting stats Jeff. Natural gas is about 1/2 that now but unleadeded is 50% more.

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 12:07:02 PM

... however the VIX is not making new daily highs so.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 12:06:54 PM

Energy Prices One Year Ago

Crude Oil settled $69.81

Unleaded settled $2.199

Heating Oil settled $2.085

Natural Gas settled $12.25

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 12:06:19 PM

TRIN to new daily highs should make the bulls just a tad worried.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 12:03:39 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/30/2006 11:58:15 AM

NVLS after the close will be market moving for semis.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/30/2006 11:54:36 AM

RLX is down, and that is not very bullish.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/30/2006 11:54:19 AM

Breakdown in progress as QM bids above 69. NQ 1579.50 is now R, above that it is 1582.25. Stops on shorts should be lowered to 1583, no higher. I would be inclined to day trade this action, as oil is all over the place and could see one more drop, but I have a feeling traders are accumulating oil ahead of the weekend now. 1570.75 should hold today, even if we start selling and I might be inclined to buy NQ there if it holds. But for now, the short form 1583 is working.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 11:50:59 AM

Frontier Oil (FTO) $34.91 -0.99% ... perhaps strongest of refiners. Just below rising 21-day SMA ($35.46), above 50-day SMA ($33.46), 200-day SMA ($26.71).

Potential acquisiton target and while we've had success with puts from these technicals in the past based on EIA data, also chatter of acquisition target.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 11:47:44 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) $48.20 -1.77% ... has been undercuttng an upward trend from October 2005 lows, but more forminable break lower today. Below all 21, 50, 200-day SMA's.

Potential acquisition target and would suggest PUT options only.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 11:44:38 AM

Sunoco (SUN) $72.95 -2.60% ... closed below its starting to round over 200-day SMA ($76.50) on Monday, and looks vulnerable to curling higher 50-day SMA ($70.90).

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 11:43:25 AM

Valero Energy (VLO) $58.71 -1.98% ... refiner edges below its rising 200-day SMA ($59.23). Test for tomorrow is to see if stock snaps back as it did on 06/13/06.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/30/2006 11:42:50 AM

Key support for NQ at 1579.50. I might scalp in and out of my trade. Feels toppy, but bulls might pull one off if QM fails on this bid. There is also some EOM dressing and squaring away ahead of major geo events and long weekend. Not a very reliable day to trade.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/30/2006 11:40:08 AM

This is what I feared for bulls. A big oil drop that is not getting a sustained rally, which means we might have played the lower oil card. Now we are in the slowing economy worries. Either that, or traders are seeing QM approach 200 ema support at 68.50 and Iran deadline looms. QQQQ 39 is building into max pain which means more upside possibly early next week. I closed longs and I am short NQ from 1583, but stop is tight at 1585.25.

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 11:38:44 AM

Qm, the Crude Oil emini, has hit a low today of 68.68 a price not seen since March 27th.

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 11:36:51 AM


Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 11:35:58 AM

Even the news is boring today.

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 11:35:43 AM

So are we having fun yet? Anyone awake?

Marc Eckelberry : 8/30/2006 11:34:52 AM

If oil finds support here and mounts a bid, it will be tough for NQ. But so far, NQ consolidtaing nera highs, which is bullsih, although we are seeing some negative divergences. Breakout for NQ is 1586, breakdown is 1579.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/30/2006 11:31:03 AM

The drop in oil is not eliciting that much excitement for NQ, not yet at least. 1585 resistance is holding, it will be interesting to see what happens. QM has support at 68.50. COMP support is 200 ema at 2174.80.

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 11:27:29 AM

Both AD volume and AD line are now making new daily highs and AD line is above +1000.

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 11:26:31 AM

Bulls attempting another push TICKs +1000.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 11:17:58 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 11:02:24 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 8/30/2006 10:57:25 AM

However, QQQQ is showing potential to break out above 39 (puts building there), but that might not be until next week. I am concerned that NDX might not close the month above 1583 (20 month MA), so I am watching this develop.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/30/2006 10:53:25 AM

Many tech stocks are getting stretched. With NQ closing the gap and this advance looking tired, I would start booking profits.

Marc Eckelberry : 8/30/2006 10:48:01 AM

NQ closes the August gap.

Keene Little : 8/30/2006 10:47:55 AM

Not much of a pullback there--not even to 38% of the leg up from yesterday. But it's possible we're completing a 5-wave move up from yesterday's low and the 30 and 60-min charts are overbought. So scalpers may want to try a short around here. ES 1310 may be the limit for upside before getting a deeper pullback.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 10:37:46 AM

Swing trade put alert for three (3) of the Exxon/Mobil XOM Oct. $65 Puts (XOM-VM) at the offer of $0.80

XOM $68.57 -1.23% ... target $1.75 on the options

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 10:32:39 AM

EIA Gasoline Inventories up 400,000 Barrels

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 10:32:14 AM

EIA Crude Oil Inventories up 2.4M Barrels

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 10:24:10 AM

Sorry but daily resistance has not broken yet. I am watching a 5 min but when I check the daily I realize my mistake.

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 10:22:29 AM

WE are now breaking daily resistance but the bulls need to close the day above resistance not just break it.

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 10:15:16 AM

Daily resistance is not going to break easily.

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 10:14:14 AM

ER breaks to a new daily high and I still think it will be the first to break daily resistance.

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 10:08:56 AM

Both VIX and TRIN are falling.

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 10:08:35 AM

AD volume is now back to new daily highs but with the AD Line is not making new daily highs so they remain neutral.

Jeff Bailey : 8/30/2006 10:03:21 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 10:03:20 AM

TICKS +800 and now +1000

Keene Little : 8/30/2006 10:02:15 AM

With a pullback deeper than gap close it looks like we'll get at least a Fib retracement of the leg up from yesterday's low. That gives us a potential support zone of 1303.75 (38%) down to 1301.25 (62%).

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 9:54:42 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices edged higher Wednesday and the yield on the benchmark 10-year note remained at its lowest level since March after a government report showed the U.S. economy grew slightly less than forecast in the second quarter.

The Commerce Department said real gross domestic product for the second quarter was revised to a 2.9% annualized rate from the earlier estimate of 2.5%. The economy grew 5.6% in the first quarter.

The second-quarter GDP revision stemmed largely from higher investments in nonresidential structures, more inventory building and higher exports, offset by lower investments in housing.

"With the GDP deflator unchanged and the composition of the revisions close to the market call, the outlook for the Fed remains sturdy -- that is, a pause in September is still by far the most likely outcome," said Daniel Jester, an economist at Moody's Economy.com.

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 9:53:24 AM

AD volume plunges below 0 as VIX and TRIN climb. Markets may need to retest support before they make break resistance or they may just flop around until after Labor Day. (or as they say in Canada Labour Day).

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 9:48:11 AM

ER did not break resistance for its daily high so far is 719 and August highs are 719.90.

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 9:37:14 AM

Careful bulls the VIX is climbing and that is not bullish.

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 9:35:03 AM

ER breaks resistance first but I think ES is close behind.

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 9:34:22 AM

Both TRIN and VIX open below their PDLs.

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 9:32:52 AM

AD line is +484 and AD volume above 0.

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 9:15:33 AM

Dateline WSj - WASHINGTON -- The U.S. economy didn't brake as hard last spring as first thought, said the government, raising its estimate for second-quarter growth partly because of stronger inventory building by businesses.

Gross domestic product increased at a 2.9% annual rate April through June, the Commerce Department said Wednesday in its first revision to second-quarter 2006 GDP. The government initially estimated growth at 2.5%.

The 2.9% seasonally adjusted gain in GDP was much weaker than the first quarter's 5.6% push forward. Second-quarter price inflation estimates were left largely unchanged.

The report showed corporate profits after taxes climbed 2.1% to $1.135 trillion in April through June from the first three months of 2006. Profits increased 14.8% in the first quarter. Year-to-year, profits climbed 19.5% since the second quarter of 2005.

More stockpiling and spending by companies as well as higher exports were behind the upward revision to GDP, which is a measure of all goods and services produced in the economy. Wall Street expected a slightly bigger upward revision to second-quarter GDP; the median estimate of 22 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires was a 3.0% increase.

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 9:13:56 AM

Gold has made it very clear to us where support is. Therefore it is neutral above and bearish below. Once again, as I have stated many times, a close below this support is an exit stage left for all my bullish gold positions. (of which I have one). Link

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 9:11:00 AM

IF ER can remain bullish all day today it will be the first time it has traded completely above all major EMAs since May 11th.

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 9:08:39 AM

This is a bullish chart and may be the first to break resistance. I never trust ER's lead because it is a different animal and why I will stick with watching ES's lead. Link

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 9:04:13 AM

Whatever I said about the ES chart goes for the YM chart as well. Link

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 9:03:16 AM

In any event ES is the leader so no matter what market you trade keep your eye on ES.

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 9:02:21 AM

Keene I see what you mean. A move higher then a return to test the resistance which should then have become support is a very likely scenario.

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 9:00:34 AM

As I stated yesterday, this is a very clear chart and I read it as quite bullish. We have very clear support and resistance and are very clear what the indicators have to do if/when the market moves high. I think there is a very good chance that will happen today but a return to first line support at 1290-1291.50 is not out of the question. Link

Keene Little : 8/30/2006 8:56:46 AM

Actually Jane you and I agree on wanting to be on the long side this morning. But not much higher and then I'll want to be looking for an opportunity to hit it on the short side.

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 8:54:11 AM

I'm not sure I have ever seen TBonds gap up but that is exactly what they did when the electronic market opened for overnight trading. This, of course, is good for the equity markets because it puts downward pressure on the yield.

Natural Gas was bearish overnight with lower lows and highs. This market gets pushed and pulled a lot with weather reports so I am thinking those reports were benign overnight.

Oil and Gold were mostly neutral overnight. Link

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 8:45:57 AM

The markets liked the GDP data and all have made new overnight highs. ES's overnight high so far as been right at resistance 1307. The bulls are looking for a close above this resistance and I think the GDP data is the catalyst for which the bulls were waiting.

I differ from Keene here and think the markets are primed to move higher today and would not be short. Link

Jane Fox : 8/30/2006 8:40:08 AM

Dateline WSJ - GDP increased at a revised 2.9% in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said. The government initially estimated growth at 2.5%.

Keene Little : 8/30/2006 8:25:33 AM

It was a quiet overnight session so we have no sense of how this morning will start out. The bulls aren't in trouble unless yesterday's low is violated (sounding like a broken record in this case). We could get an early pullback this morning but it should be good for a long play. However, the way we're chopping our way higher is looking bearish and if YM does tag 11445 I'll be watching very carefully to short it there. ES has a potential upside Fib projection to 1313.

Market Monitor Archives