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OI Technical Staff : 9/8/2006 9:59:59 PM

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Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 4:04:30 PM

If you listened to the Peter Shiff interview I posted ( 9/8/2006 11:26:45 AM), he argues that the fall of the dollar will create dollar price pressure on oil and it could run up to $200 in the next year or two. A slowing economy in the US might not necessarily mean lower oil. The stagflation scenario is supportive of an oil bid, should it occur.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 4:00:35 PM

I am waiting for one washout low in oil any day now, which I would buy along with gold. It could happen Monday.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 3:58:59 PM

Unfortunately for bulls, QQQQ 39 strike has printed total call open interest higher than puts. That is not good news on a contrarian basis. It is max pain, so will probably be a magnet (like today), but we could very well go down and close that gap at 37.70, which I would buy, since 38 strike is supportive. Much will depend n the TXN update on Monday. Link

Keene Little : 9/8/2006 3:55:14 PM

YM is still hanging in there inside its up-channel that I showed earlier. A little more upside on Monday morning to its Fib target of 11517 and it will time to get shorty. Now all we need is for the setup to finish playing out.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 3:51:18 PM

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investment bank HSBC has revised downward its forecast for 2007 economic growth and cautioned that the risk of an outright recession is growing as a retreat in housing threatens household balance sheets. The company argues that while corporate profits have remained sky-high, the incomes of most Americans have effectively fallen over the last 18 months. That, say economists Stephen King and Ian Morris, could be a recipe for hard times in an economy that relies on consumers for over two-thirds of its strength. "Never before have households been so hard hit at a time companies are doing so well," the two economists said in a research note to clients. "So it's likely that the U.S. could slow down quite a long way." They now see gross domestic product expanding just 1.9 percent next year, down from an earlier forecast of 2.6 percent and from an expected rate of growth around 3.5 percent for 2006.

Jane Fox : 9/8/2006 3:45:55 PM

Everyone have a great weekend and see you all on Monday.

Jane Fox : 9/8/2006 3:37:49 PM

Gold will probably close above support so it has been saved by the bell.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 3:35:37 PM

For those who care (and yes it does affect the markets, because of the elections), here is the full text of just released Senate intelligence committee report on Iraq: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 3:24:49 PM

I don't know who wants to hold equities over this weekend, but as usual, there are plenty of gamblers out there. I trust my daytrading abilities enough to not have to rely on that kind of a swing. VIX has support at 13.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 3:21:30 PM

I might get back in gold before the close.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 2:56:41 PM

Out of the gold trade for now. In fact, out of everything.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 2:36:42 PM

This dollar bounce makes no sense.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 2:34:44 PM

I agree with his 20 dma assesment. I have on on that one for a few days. But it has moved up to 1296 and for ES, it's 1299.

Keene Little : 9/8/2006 2:32:23 PM

We could see a continuation higher into the close today as I look at YM's pattern. The type of A-B-C correction from yesterday morning (expanded flat correction) usually has wave-C going to 162% of wave-A and that gives us a Fib projection of 11517 close to the end of today or first thing Monday. The little up-channel from yesterday afternoon bears watching. If price plays out as depicted here and that level is tagged as it's hitting the top of its channel it will be an excellent time to hit it short. Link

Jane Fox : 9/8/2006 2:30:05 PM

McMillan's weekly commentary.

It looks like the bulls have finally exhausted themselves. For several weeks now, the bulls have had things pretty much their way -- with prices advancing slowly and the technical indicators falling in line behind the move. However, as we warned last week, it wouldn't take much to swing these indicators over to a negative reading. It's too early to say if this is just a minor correction or the beginning of something bigger. Let's review the technical indicators.

First, there's the major indices themselves. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has good support at 1290, so as long as it's above that level, it is bullish (the 20-day moving average is just above 1290 as well). However, it has gotten somewhat extended recently, so a pullback towards that support is perhaps warranted. The trend of $SPX is still up.

The equity-only put-call ratios have grudgingly remained on buy signals. That is, they are continuing to decline -- albeit slowly. Also positive is the fact that they are rather high on their charts -- meaning that there is plenty of room below for them to decline, as would be the case in a longer, intermediate-term advance.

Market breadth (advances minus declines) had kept pace with the advance quite nicely. In fact, breadth has been fabulous (of course, it was also helped out by the fact that the bond market was advancing -- at least until very recently). As long as we're on the subject of the bond market, it's noteworthy that the stock market ran into trouble only after the bond market tumbled first.

Finally, there are the volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO). These had been disturbingly low, and -- as we warned last week -- it's okay as long as they stay low, but once they begin to increase, that is a negative sign. Tuesday, when the broad stock market was relatively flat, $VIX moved higher, and Wednesday it rose sharply, followed by another small gain on Thursday. This is a somewhat bearish development. There is no specific level that $VIX must attain to turn bearish, but since it's been up three days in row, we're concerned.

Overall, the market could still work higher, but it's been operating on vapors for a couple of weeks now and some selling is overdue. If it can withstand this current bout of selling without $SPX falling below 1290, then another rally attempt could easily develop. However, if that support level gives way, it could be setting up yet again another nasty September-October period.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 2:26:03 PM

I would also like to see the Euro climb back above 1.2680.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 2:24:20 PM

The YG advance looks tentative. Stop is moved up to 616.40 (entry was 617.50). Gap close is at 623.90 and if we get it, I might close the trade. It's also a hedge, which is why I think they are bidding it a little today from support.

Keene Little : 9/8/2006 2:24:12 PM

Back for another look and I see the sellers are absent so the market has floated higher. ES is about to test yesterday's high but the internal pattern makes it look like it's just part of a larger sideways consolidation that should continue into Monday before getting another leg down. Getting a drop back down as I type.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 2:20:19 PM

Unfortunately, it's not there on the weekly, so I have very mixed feelings here. My stop is at 616.10 and I will raise it soon.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 2:18:11 PM

Gold just needs to get out of this current bear flag pattern, but it is in the gap from this morning and the triangle since July is still in place. Also noting the bullish divergence on the daily charts relative to previous 615 lows.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 2:12:09 PM

If you want to be long gold ahead of the weekend and 9/11 aniversary, immediate support is 616.40, gap open. I expect the dollar to resume its slide soon, but it's tough to time these things. Gold could go down to 609, 605 or never look back from 615. I also think oil could find support between 65 and 66 near term. We are very close and note how gold has not fallen as low as oil, on a relative basis. All in all, I have a bullish bias developing with gold.

Jane Fox : 9/8/2006 2:07:50 PM

The CCI also hit +200 so that would have been a good fade.

Jane Fox : 9/8/2006 2:07:24 PM

TICKS hit +1000 at 2:02 YM's high of the day.

Jane Fox : 9/8/2006 1:25:04 PM

New daily highs except ER.

Jane Fox : 9/8/2006 1:23:49 PM

Bulls are getting stronger now.

Jane Fox : 9/8/2006 1:05:19 PM

Both AD line and volume to new daily highs which isn't really saying too much.

Jane Fox : 9/8/2006 1:01:55 PM

Just as I say that TICKS reach +800.

Jane Fox : 9/8/2006 1:01:34 PM

AD line and volume are all over the place. Good day to clean house.

Jane Fox : 9/8/2006 1:00:57 PM

On the other hand VIX is hugging daily lows and that is always bullish.

Jane Fox : 9/8/2006 1:00:15 PM

Just took a look at the TRIN and I see it has been climbing all day and has reached a high of 1.21. This is not bullish folks.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 12:58:00 PM

QM better holds 66.675 into the close.

Keene Little : 9/8/2006 12:48:09 PM

No surprise, boring day. I'm only watching it peripherally to see if there's any movement. The patient is about to flatline.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 12:47:43 PM

Those conditions are not present today. But when they do manifest themselves, you want to be in gold.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 12:47:12 PM

If you are a momentum gold trader, then here is the ideal line-up if you are playing the long side. Oil up, dollar down and Canadian dollar up (better yet, CAD/JPY).

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 12:44:39 PM

There is a fundamental disconnect in the rally of the dollar right now, based on perceptions Feds might raise. I think the dollar is headed much lower and I am trying to get an entry with gold. I any case, I like the protection going forward.

Tab Gilles : 9/8/2006 12:42:13 PM

Citrix Systems (CTXS)$31.65

Last 3 years P/E Range (High) 35 26 26 (Low) 14 16 18; 2007 EPS est.: $1.52 P/E: 18.6X; 2008 EPS est.: $1.69 P/E: 16.8X

Link Link

News... Link Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 12:23:28 PM

The Euro ( I will refer to this as EUR or EC), has been mounting a slow bounce since the open low, which is why you are seeing gold hold support. Still red, but watch that chart.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 12:18:55 PM

AAPL and NVDA are leaders of this tech rally. Watch them.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 12:14:02 PM

Tab, thanks. Bernie relies too much on options and long term MA's. I agree. But the chart is pretty clear, though. I agree with you that we could very well close September up and do just the opposite of last year (in fact, that has been my orginal plan: buy August, exit Labor day, and buy mid September). I just think it is safer for some readers to wait for NDX 20 month MA to clear once again. I also see that NDX/QQQQ big gap below us that is not yet closed. Lots of food for thought, but bearish sentiment is excessive, no doubt, and that could trigger a suprise rally.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 12:14:20 PM

So as not to be fooled by YG moves, I suggest you put up the eur/usd quotes up on your IB. For IB, symbol is EUR, choose Sept 06 and USD globex. For Qharts, symbol is EC06U. Basically, when the euro drops, the dollar rises and gold will have a rough time.
In fact, beginner oil traders never even bother to look at the Canadian dollar. That is a huge mistake. Qcharts symbol CD06U. If the CAD is weak, so is oil. Currency markets are FAR more savvy, and you need to use them. I hope this helps.

Jane Fox : 9/8/2006 12:07:27 PM

These two are certainly not as clear as they were on Wednesday. Link

Tab Gilles : 9/8/2006 12:07:57 PM

Marc, Don't really track monthly ma's, sounds like something Bernie Schaeffer does.

As I've posted many times on MM, I use several technical and sentiment indicators. We had a low in July and a buy signal. Yes- Sept/Oct is historically a bearish time for equities. But, I believe it will be a positive. Several reasons, Oil is down from $78 to below $67 and the hurricane season has been calm thus far. The Fed has paused (for now), Housing has slowed, Israel /Hezbollah cease fire is holding, Iraq has assumned military control, & Iran's deadline for nukes has passed and it looks likely to take a diplomatic path.The leader thus far has been technology and I believe it will continue to lead in this rally.

Link Link Link Link

Jane Fox : 9/8/2006 12:05:01 PM

My sentiments exactly on Gold. I am a Gold bug but I still require the charts to remain bullish as well. I will step aside if Gold closes below support and get back in if/when Gold closes above resistance. The one thing about the Gold charts is that they are very easy to read.

Jane Fox : 9/8/2006 11:49:51 AM

DAteline WSJ - A widening scandal over Hewlett-Packard Co.'s investigation into leaks from its board of directors is casting an awkward light on the actions of its outside counsel, prominent Silicon Valley lawyer Larry Sonsini, and H-P's non-executive chairman, Patricia Dunn.

In an unusual email exchange this summer between Mr. Sonsini and Tom Perkins, an H-P director who angrily resigned in May over a search of directors' phone records, Mr. Sonsini assured Mr. Perkins that the probe -- including its use of a practice called pretexting to obtain the phone records -- was "well done and within legal limits."

Keene Little : 9/8/2006 11:39:23 AM

Fundamentally I completely agree with you Marc on gold, and stagflation. That's why I'm patiently waiting as well. I think a test of the $600 area is a must buy since we can maintain a tight stop. The upside from there, if that's the way it's going to go, will be huge. If it bounces from here and heads back for $650 my guess is that that resistance will break on that move. So it's either going to drop fast from here or potentially bounce before it even tests the $600 area. It's a tough call right here.

Tab Gilles : 9/8/2006 11:35:25 AM

US Global Investors (GROW) $32.14 +$4.12 (14.49%) Link Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 11:24:15 AM

Qcharts just updated my 10 dma for ES and it is at 1304. We could get an overthrow up there next week. In any case, ES has to get back in the channel and above 61.8% at 1299.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 11:26:45 AM

Gold and oil bugs want to listen to Peter Shiff in this interview. This guy is not an idiot and he is calling for a tough recession and soaring oil and gold prices: Link
The obnoxious interviewer gives him a hard time, but he makes his case better than anyone I have heard. And I am bullish on techs next year. His analysis does give me pause. Keep in mind that he does not believe in the soft landing scenario and for now, it can't be ruled out. Stay informed, that is the key. If he's right, you want to hedge your portfolio with gold.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 11:14:24 AM

Hmm, should have kept my NQ 1577 target...In any case, 10 day ema is at 1575, 10 dma at 1578 and 50% at 1577.50. I doubt very much we close above that today.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 11:11:56 AM

Keene, I think gold is a must buy going forward and I am patiently waiting for 605 or so. But you are right, there is risk, so my stops would be tight. Nevertheless it is a fundamentl play if you believe in stagflation. Gold went up ten fold in the 70's.

Jane Fox : 9/8/2006 11:08:29 AM

I am switching to Charter Phone and the tech is here to make the switch so I need to log off for a while.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 11:09:21 AM

Jane, I'm not sure about ES. Look at his chart and the drop out the channel as well as 20 dma above at 1299 and 61.8%. In fact, the reason I exited my NQ long for just 7 points is that I don't see ES following. I think we could be headed for 1286 or so. If it does not get back above 1299 soon, there could be more trouble: Link

Keene Little : 9/8/2006 11:05:22 AM

Here's my bearish take on gold, which is only a possibility. If gold has a lot more work to do to the downside to relieve the mini-bubbles from the last spike up, then the decline is just getting started.

This wave count says gold is getting ready to drop in a small 3rd of a 3rd wave down which should break June's low and probably ultimately lead to a break just below $500 before finding firmer support. Link

But there's a bullish possibility if the descending triangle (descending highs, flat bottom) holds here, especially with the 200-dma just below it at 609, since it could be a bullish continuation pattern after the spike up off the June low. The uptrend line from August 2005 is just below 600 (which makes Marc's desire to buy it at 600 a good call). A break much below 600 or above 650 is the direction that gold should head for the next couple of months. In the meantime, flip a coin (although I'm leaning to the downside here).

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 11:03:50 AM

Out at 1573. Done for the day.

Jane Fox : 9/8/2006 11:03:34 AM

Here is why I am still bullish on the equity markets. ES is driver and yesterday's drop was right at support with no worries from the MACD or RSI. The drop we saw this week was just an overbot retracement. Link

Jane Fox : 9/8/2006 10:59:56 AM

TICKs +800

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 10:59:25 AM

I will close this around 1577.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 10:59:08 AM

Basically, NDX closing three months in a row below the 20 month ma has not happened since 2000. It could be a fluke, but set your alarms at NDX 1585.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 10:56:40 AM

Tab, if you are there, remember when I mentioned a few weeks ago that NDX needed to close August above its 20 month MA? As you know, it failed to do so and it looks like we are paying the price. I would seriously look at how we move around that important MA this month. Right now at 1586.75. Long above, short below. Those big computers are wired to that kind of long term indicator of health.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 10:52:05 AM

Stepping away, looks like my stop at 1566 is holding and the long from 1566.50 could pull in a few nickels. Just don't hold on to anything for too long...

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 10:50:38 AM

Since I expect dollar weakness at some point, and of the very serious kind, I am patiently waiting for a gold entry. As far as shorting it, count me out. It would be like shorting stocks in November. Dangerous.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 10:49:06 AM

I have never had such a tight stop hold. Everytime QM dips below 67, NQ finds support. But you can tell the big guys are not trading today. Just scalpers. I am hoping for a stop run push to 1577, which I would exit. Any long is counter-trend, please be aware of this. But opex is right around the corner with QQQQ 39 max pain.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 10:45:45 AM

Jane, you wonder why they only give us such a hard time with cigarettes when the leading cause of death is heart disease.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 10:39:49 AM

1566.25, an earlier overnight low, is holding as support for now. My stop held, but I am close to closing all trades today.

Tab Gilles : 9/8/2006 10:39:31 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) $47.73 Per 8/8/06 11:59 AM post, entered MUR @ $51, stop set at $47. Also refer to 8/17 11:48 post. Daily... Link Weekly... Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 10:43:49 AM

I have an NQ long from 1566.50, but my stop is now at 1566 and very tight. I don't trust any of this, short or long, today. SMH is green, but SOX is red. Tough call, and probably not a good day to trade. Remember, TXN has a major update on Monday and it is also the anniversary of 9/11. I am a buyer of gold on a push down to 600.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/8/2006 10:35:27 AM

NQ actually looks stronger than ES, as it is basing above its 20 dma. ES 20 dma is 1299, NQ 12565.50. NQ decied to hold on to weekly S1 for now. I'm not sure it will last, depends on oil and the 67 level. If NQ loses 1565 once more, it will head straight down to 1558.

Tab Gilles : 9/8/2006 10:28:19 AM

Emisphere Technologies (EMIS)Follow-up to 8/18 , 8/21,8/24 and 8/25 posts.

Charts indicated lower, Price objective $7.50, or slightly lower targeting 200-ma.

Matrix Research Initiated Sell on Sept 1st.

Those in EMIS Sep 2006 $10.00 PUT (MTQUB.X) recommended on 8/18 11:47 AM [Bid $1.55/Ask $1.80] now trading at $1.85/$2.10. Either sell or rollover into Dec 10 puts, MTQXB.X Bid 2.40/ Ask 2.70.

120 minute chart. Link Daily Link

Keene Little : 9/8/2006 10:22:22 AM

I'm getting the feeling that this is going to be a throw-away day. Don't force trades today since I don't think it's worth it. The place where we are in the EW pattern (4th wave correction) and what I'm seeing so far tells me to stand aside and wait. If you're short I see no reason to cover yet.

Jane Fox : 9/8/2006 10:15:00 AM

Oh my gosh and we wonder why Americans are getting fatter and fatter What goes better with a Fried Twinkie? A Fried Coke, of course.

That's the artery-clogging concoction vendor Abel Gonzales Jr. has come up with for the State Fair of Texas, the same state fair that came up with the corn dog in 1942.

Gonzales deep-fries Coca-Cola-flavoured batter. He then drizzles Coke fountain syrup on it. The fried Coke is topped with whipped cream, cinnamon sugar and a cherry.

Jane Fox : 9/8/2006 10:11:10 AM

Dateline MarketWatch - Cleveland Federal Reserve President Sandra Pianalto, a voting member of the Fed's Open Market Committee, is scheduled to speak Friday. Her speech will be of interest because she also will address inflation and monetary policy.

On Thursday the fixed-income market was able to post gains, despite a remark from the San Francisco Fed's Janet Yellen that the central bank's bias must be toward tightening.

"The voting regional Fed president tends to vote and speak in a moderately hawkish tone and will be discussing the hot-button topic of 'Inflation, Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy' before a global market trends conference in Oak Brook, Illinois," said Action Economics.

"Given her track record and the Cleveland Fed's traditionally hawkish stance, the risk is that her words won't be friendly to the bond market, though that didn't stop the bulls yesterday after the San Francisco Fed's Yellen talked up the Fed's bias to tighten policy," Action Economics said.

Bond investors in general remain confident that a weakening housing market and overall economy will keep interest rates steady or send them lower in coming months.

Jane Fox : 9/8/2006 9:54:45 AM

These are bullish but not with a lot of conviction. Link

Jane Fox : 9/8/2006 9:48:54 AM

* DEC. GOLD FALLS $9.40 TO $615.50/OZ IN MORNING TRADING
* DEC. SILVER DROPS 53.5 CENTS, OR 4.2%, AT $12.16/OZ
* DEC. COPPER DOWN 10.2 CENTS, OR 2.8%, AT $3.546/LB

Keene Little : 9/8/2006 9:47:58 AM

Looking at ES's 10-min chart you can see a 3-wave bounce off the morning low and it's only a 3-wave decline into the late afternoon decline. This means we should get either another leg up above yesterday afternoon's bounce or a continuation sideways in a coil. The spike up would be tradeable but the sideways coil is not worth the trouble as it calls for an up-down-up sequence before we get another leg down. Flat is a good position while we wait for this to sort itself out.

Jane Fox : 9/8/2006 9:47:53 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar rose against major currencies early Friday, touching a six-week high versus the euro, after Bank of Japan chief said the central bank will continue to raise rates gradually and as traders adjusted positions ahead of the upcoming meeting of the Group of Seven leading industrial nations.

"Position adjustment rather than new risk taking appears to be the overall theme in the foreign exchange market," said Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman.

"With a light data calendar today, we expect the dollar to hold to tight ranges," added Charmaine Buskas, an economist at Moody's Economy.com.

In early New York trading, the euro was quoted at $1.2674, compared with $1.2731 late Thursday, after falling to $1.2659, the lowest level since July 28. The dollar changed hands at 116.73 yen, compared with 116.44 yen.

Jane Fox : 9/8/2006 9:42:46 AM

* NYSE ADVANCERS OUTNUMBER DECLINERS 15 TO 11
* NASDAQ ADVANCERS OUTNUMBER DECLINERS 11 TO 10
* DOW INDUSTRIALS ADVANCERS OUTNUMBER DECLINERS 27 TO 3

Jane Fox : 9/8/2006 9:38:49 AM

Dateline WSJ - Lennar Corp. (LEN) became latest U.S. home builder to cut its earnings estimates, citing a weakened housing market.

Miami-based Lennar reduced its third-quarter estimate to a range of $1.25 to $1.35 a share. Sixteen analysts polled by Thomson First Call had been looking for profit of $1.81 a share. In the year-earlier quarter, Lennar delivered net income of $2.06 a share.

In June, Lennar lowered its fiscal 2006 earnings estimate to a range of $8 to $8.25 from its previous estimate of $9.25 a share, and at the time cautioned further were likely.

"The U.S. housing market has continued to deteriorate," President and Chief Executive Stuart Miller said in a statement. "Given difficult market conditions, we have limited our land purchases while we have remained focused on even flow production and minimizing completed inventory."

Its shares are off about 28% in 2006 through Thursday's close

Jane Fox : 9/8/2006 9:37:17 AM

VIX and TRIN open within their respective PDRs.

Jane Fox : 9/8/2006 9:35:47 AM

AD line is +585 and AD volume is above 0. The bulls have the ball but do not have field advantage.

Jane Fox : 9/8/2006 9:24:45 AM

ZG (Golds emini) has made an overnight low of 613.80. Remember I require Gold to CLOSE below support before I will exit my gold positions although much more and I just may do it before the close.

Jane Fox : 9/8/2006 9:00:29 AM

Both Gold and Natural Gas are now making new overnight lows.

Jane Fox : 9/8/2006 8:59:39 AM

Both Oil and yields are down should make for a bullish day in the equity markets.

Jane Fox : 9/8/2006 8:59:47 AM

Gold is at its do or die level - 616.50 and I'm not sure this support will hold this time. This is the 5th visit. (ZG's low was 615.20)

Natural GAs is also testing its support and I don't think it will hold either. I was long Nat Gas because I thought another bullish bounce was possible (small moves can be very profitable) but the longer it hangs around support the less likely that scenario will play so I bailed.

Oil broke its PDL overnight with a low of 66.675 but has recovered.

TBonds broke their PDHs which should be good for equities this morning because yields are down. Link

Keene Little : 9/8/2006 8:47:12 AM

With the positive futures this morning, and YM's bounce back up into yesterday afternoon's consolidation range, we could another leg up in its bounce that started at yesterday morning's low. If we stay stuck in the sideways range then we can look for lower prices once it's done. But there's a chance we'll see the bounce get above yesterday's early afternoon high. Fridays before opex have tended to be a little more volatile lately so expect the unexpected.

Jane Fox : 9/8/2006 8:44:48 AM

Good morning all. Markets were about as neutral as they could be during the overnight session. Makes one wonder just how "neutral" they will stay on this Friday right after summer. Link

Keene Little : 9/8/2006 8:30:35 AM

Friday's pivot tables (for December contracts): Link and Link

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