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Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 2:11:51 AM

Sell-off on Japan economic numbers. NQ has support at 1582.50, 20 day ema and S1.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 2:07:30 AM

YG turning into a short below 604.40 now. Since theOctober contract lost 600, that is pretty much the bias out there. Oil is holding on to 65.65, s1, but I am not sure that will last and we shold get one more push down there before calling a temporary bottom. I think they will hold the 65 level tomorrow, but be careful. They might be gunning for 63.35, monthly S2. However, sentiment is extremely negative on oil and gold and has been for a few weeks. Expect a short covering rally at some point.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 12:54:35 AM

As far as equities, I would really doubt we see a collapse on 9/11 without an event. Don't forget the TXN update.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 12:53:20 AM

Of course, now we have a bullish divergence, but I will take it up tomorrow. I don't trust ECBOT stops overnight, although this one worked fine.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 12:50:12 AM

Stopped out at 603 (-1.4). This could get ugly tomorrow if we don;t get back above 604.40 soon.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 12:29:21 AM

Index Pivot Matrix for Monday at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 12:06:50 AM

Hey Keene, 20 dma ES is 1311.50, high so far is 1311. NQ 20 dma is 1588, low so far is 1588.25. Interesting.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/10/2006 11:57:46 PM

In again 604.40, stop 603.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/10/2006 11:51:14 PM

Dollar is dropping. I migt hit it again. Remember 60.40 is weekly S1. Below that, there is risk to 590.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/10/2006 11:50:12 PM

Out -1.2.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/10/2006 11:37:07 PM

It's a bit risky, but the stop is very tight. QM seems to holding S1 at 65.65.

Keene Little : 9/10/2006 11:34:36 PM

Friday afternoon I had mentioned I was looking for another minor new high (either Friday afternoon or Monday morning) to set up a short play. This is based on a price projection for two equal legs up from Thursday morning's low. For ES that gives us 1314.75 to watch for resistance, assuming we'll get the bounce up to there on Monday. When looking at the parallel up-channel for price action since Thursday afternoon we see that a minor pullback to about 1309.25 could set up the push higher. Link

Note too that 1309.50 is the level where ES found support and resistance during the past 2 days. Futures are currently dancing around this level as well. We'll have to see what the overnight session brings but if this level holds Monday morning and we get the bounce up to 1314.75 that's where I'll be looking to try a short play. The other reason I like that level for a short is that that is where it will retest its broken uptrend line from the July low. Hoping for that kiss goodbye...

Marc Eckelberry : 9/10/2006 11:34:03 PM

Scalp YG (Dec) long 605.20, stop 604.

Keene Little : 9/10/2006 11:22:41 PM

Monday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/10/2006 11:16:39 PM

Opec is expected to step in and support oil around 65 (cut production). The question now is if the Iran news is already priced in. I think we are very close, which means gold could be as well. I mentioned Friday that we could get one more washout low for oil and gold on Monday. Looks like it is happening.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/10/2006 11:11:37 PM

Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Gold in Asia fell below $600 an ounce to its lowest in 10 weeks, matching a decline in crude oil prices, after Iranian and European negotiators reported progress in talks on a nuclear dispute. Iran had threatened to cut off oil exports because of its nuclear research dispute with the United Nations, spurring investors to buy oil and gold. Movements in oil and gold prices are 81 percent correlated, Merrill Lynch & Co. said in a Sept. 8 report. A correlation of 100 percent would be a perfect match. "The Iranian talks and lower oil prices support a less attractive picture for gold," said Jonathan Barratt, head of foreign exchange and metals at Tricom Futures Pty., in Sydney. Gold for immediate delivery fell as much as $11.60, or 1.9 percent, to $599.20 an ounce, its lowest since June 30. The precious metal traded at $599.72 at 12:30 p.m. Sydney time. Oil prices have fallen 16 percent since touching a record $78.40 a barrel on July 14, while gold prices have declined 9.7 percent over the same period. Talks between Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani and Javier Solana, the European Union's foreign-policy chief, were "productive," Solana said in Vienna yesterday. "We have reached common views on a number of issues," Iran's Larijani said at a press briefing following a two-hour meeting with Solana at the Austrian chancellery. "Many of the misunderstandings were removed," Larijani said, without being more specific.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/10/2006 11:13:59 PM

There is an interesting dichotomy going on between recession talk and the current dollar rise. YG (gold)weekly S1 is 604.40 and daily S2 is 605.37 (Dec). If that falls, next level is a swift move to 592. At some point, smart money will want to hedge Friday CPI. Besides, this dollar bounce is mighty suspect, especially considering the EU upcoming rate hike. Just keep in mind that the COT shows huge commercial short positions in gold as of 9/5, but that might be unwinding, since we have dropped significantly since then. Link
The other chilling scenario is that someone is bumping up the dollar in anticipaton of a rate hike. I doubt it because in the end, a rate hike would definitely lead us into a recession and that would make a stronger dollar history. Confused? Join the club. No one knows what is going to happen because the data is not all in yet. This is why I prefer trading support and resistance, rather than committing 100% either way. So when I say gold has support at 604/605, it is a trade, not an investement (besides gold is a lousy investment in real dollar terms).


OI Technical Staff : 9/10/2006 9:59:59 PM

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Marc Eckelberry : 9/10/2006 9:26:03 PM

Gold just lost key 200 dma support and 61.8% June/July. (609/610). The dollar did a sudden spike and oil failed to get above 66. Adds up. 605 is next support. Starting to get attractive.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/10/2006 7:39:52 PM

They usually bid up equity futures after a non event weekend that had fear ahead of it. NQ overnight resistance will be 1597.50/1598.50.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/10/2006 7:35:58 PM

NQ has PP support at 1590.50, and 20 dma at 1588.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/10/2006 7:35:24 PM

ALl trades listed for NQ, ES, ER and YM will be the December contract as of now.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/10/2006 7:37:14 PM

615.10 is YG resistance now, support below 613.50 is 609/610 and 604.40/605.20. QM support is 65.65, 65.17 and 65.05, resistance is 66.625.

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