Option Investor
Printer friendly version
Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 11:51:06 PM

WASHINGTON (AP) -- A group of oil companies led by Chevron could avoid more than $1 billion in royalty payments to the federal government for oil in a field they said they discovered in the Gulf of Mexico last week, according to a newspaper report. The potential bonus to Chevron and its partners stems from a mistake the Interior Department made in signing offshore leases in the late 1990s for drilling in federal waters, The New York Times reported on its Web site. Link

Keene Little : 9/11/2006 10:13:37 PM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 9/11/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 9:55:52 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Today's Activity

Stock/Option Trades

Swing trade put closed out the three (3) Exxon/Mobil XOM Oct. $65 Puts (XOM-VM) at target of $1.75. ($+0.95/contract, or +118.75%)

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 6:11:18 PM


DJ- Chip maker forecasts 3Q sales in the range of $3.71 billion to $3.87 billion, compared with previous estimate of $3.63 billion to $3.95 billion. Semiconductor revenue is expected to account for $3.53 billion to $3.67 billion of the total, the same range as before. Company expects EPS of 44c-46c versus its previous outlook of 42c-48c. Analysts had projected 3Q earnings of 45c a share on revenue of $3.8 billion.

TXN $31.78 +2.51% Link ... $31.43 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 6:08:23 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 5:24:36 PM

NYSE Summation ($NYSI) 20-point box Link ... currently column of X to +669.85

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 5:23:05 PM

NASDAQ Summation ($NASI) 20-point box Link .... currently column of X to -130.76.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 5:10:25 PM

BIIIIG volumes in various October energy futures contracts today and past several sessions.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 4:31:07 PM

NYSE Comp. Up 7.8% for 52 weeks.

NASDAQ Comp. unchanged for 52 weeks.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 4:28:15 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 4:24:57 PM

In the late 90's, it was 4 and 5-lettered stock symbols that buyers couldn't get enough of Marc.

When I left on vacation, NYSE NH/NL indications were very "overbought" above 70%. I'm guessing without the data, but 5-day NH/NL ratio probably coming back a bit ... say 50%?

Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 4:03:18 PM

I just can't shake the unease I get from seeing NYSE drop to its 50 dma ahead of NDX. It is a reverse of what we have seen recently and indicates that the market is being held up by fewer stocks.

Keene Little : 9/11/2006 3:52:34 PM

If the pullback from this afternoon's high doesn't get going it's beginning to look like just another corrective pullback (bull flag). If short, I'd use each successive lower high in this pullback as your stop level.

Jane Fox : 9/11/2006 3:50:11 PM

Economic Reports for tomorrow.

8:30a.m. July Trade Deficit. Previous: $64.8B.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 3:41:43 PM

DJ- Canada's Intl. Reserves Down $465M in Week Ended Sept. 8

At Sept. 8, the official international reserves totaled $35.388 billion, compared with $35.853 billion at Aug. 31.

The Sept. 8 reserves included:

-U.S. dollars, $16.712 billion;

-other foreign currencies, $16.573 billion;

-gold, $66 million;

-special drawing rights, $944 million;

-reserve position in the International Monetary Fund, $1.093 billion.

All reserve figures are reported in U.S. funds.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 3:26:47 PM

We ar starting some selling at the close these days. They are not pushing too much, but someone is raising cash. Nevertheless, NQ found support at 10 dma and weekly pivot (1599).

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 3:16:31 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 3:11:04 PM

Once we are done with the 9/11 relief rally/patriotic rally, whatever you want to call it, we should get down to brass tax tomorrow. TXN after the close will determine if NDX/QQQQ can re-conquer their 200 day ema's. Right now, looks dubious, although QQQQ max pain is 39.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 3:04:41 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 9/11/2006 2:40:15 PM

So far the bounce off last Thursday's low is just a bear flag with two equal legs up at YM 11509. As this chart shows, resistance was found at the top of a parallel up-channel at 11509. With the 5-wave move up today I'm now thinking that was the completion of the A-B-C move up from Thursday. C-waves are always 5-wave moves. If this is true then we're ready for the next decline. I'd say you want to be short now and on bounces. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 2:30:36 PM


DJ- CEO Williams says based on data so far from 3Q, health insurer sees 2Q medical costs to be restated "somewhat favorably." Investors punished the stock in recent months on concerns of growing percentage of premiums paying claims.

AET $38.45 +5.34% Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 2:27:50 PM


DJ- FDA wants more information before it decides whether to approve Genentech's blockbuster drug Avastin as a treatment for advanced breast cancer, says the biotechnology company. Request will probably delay final FDA action until late 2007.

DNA $77.54 -5.51% Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 2:22:33 PM


DJ- European regulators will look at whether Intel urged German retailer Metro AG's Metro Markt subsidiary to not sell computer chips made by rival AMD, says EU spokesman.

INTC $19.54 +0.46% Link

AMD $25.90 +0.38% Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 2:14:05 PM

S&P Retail Index (RLX.X) 450.78 +1.88% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 2:12:34 PM


DJ- Mayor Richard Daley vetoes an ordinance that would have required mega-retailers to pay their workers more than other employers after some of the nation's largest stores warned the measure would keep them from opening their doors within the city's limits.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 2:10:39 PM


DJ- Drug maker agrees to pay $3.1 billion to settle the transfer-pricing tax dispute. Deal covers the dispute for 1989-2000, a trial for which was set for February, as well as 2001-2005 period. Glaxo has already made provisions for the dispute.

GSK $55.29 +0.38% Link ...

Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 2:06:33 PM

If you are a hedge fund and long NQ, what do you do at quad wicthing? You sell the September high and buy the December low, or as low as posible. You do not want to get hit with that premium and this is why you have the chop.

Jane Fox : 9/11/2006 1:49:39 PM


Jane Fox : 9/11/2006 1:47:34 PM

I truly don't think that upward trendline will be much of an issue for ES but it may cap the move today.

Jane Fox : 9/11/2006 1:46:28 PM

The bulls defended support and it held up today. Now they have a battle with resistance from the July 18th upward trendline. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 1:44:01 PM

200 ema NDX and QQQQ. Breadth is poor, so this could be a scalp short.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 1:41:40 PM

QQQQ 39.11. Hmm.

Jane Fox : 9/11/2006 1:38:44 PM

Here is how the markets are trading in relation to their PDRs. Link

Keene Little : 9/11/2006 1:35:18 PM

This rally leg should be ending near the current levels and we should get a pullback now.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 1:34:30 PM

I agree, Tab.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 1:28:50 PM

NQ has a gap to close at 1623.50, although weekly r1 is at 1617. QQQQ 39 puts have become supportive.

Jane Fox : 9/11/2006 1:28:43 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- A tumble in gold and silver prices has filled the New York Stock Exchange's biggest percentage-decliners list with stocks of gold and silver producers, including the top three, and five of the top six.

If you expand the criteria to other commodity markets, mining and energy stocks make up 11 of the 15 biggest NYSE losers, as crude prices fell to a six-month low.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 1:23:48 PM

Fed's Poole:

DJ- The price index for personal consumption expenditures is a preferable inflation gauge compared to the consumer price index, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President William Poole said Monday.

"My preference is on the PCE side" rather than the CPI, which has an excessive weight on housing, Poole said in response to questions following a speech to the National Association for Business Economics.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 1:19:05 PM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) Link ... $0.40 box size to match $4.00 box of gold futures.

Big breakdown today at $60.00/$600.00 spot.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 1:16:57 PM

DJ- Bank Of Portugal Sold 20 Tons Of Gold Over Last Months

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 1:11:54 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 9/11/2006 1:10:12 PM

Got to go....appointment...

However... let's not forget those who died 5 years ago today and those who fight everyday to defend our country! Link

Tab Gilles : 9/11/2006 1:05:14 PM

Marc, you maybe correct, I would say a pillback would favor entry points. Looking at a weekly $NDX/$NALOW/$NAHGH using a 10-ema. Wouldn't you agree that the risk-reward favors the upside in the next few months? Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 1:01:59 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 9/11/2006 1:01:35 PM

After this little pullback if it manages to push to a new high it will have created a 5-wave advance of this morning's low. That should indicate we've got higher to go after a pullback. So I wouldn't chase it higher here but look to go long on a pullback. We may only get another leg up after that to finish the sideways consolidation but at least it could be good for a scalp long (but first a scalp short after a new high here).

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 12:53:27 PM

iShares Russell 2000 (AMEX:IWM) $70.46 -0.15% ... September "Max Pain Theory" at $70.00 ($1 increments)

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 12:52:13 PM

Applied Materials (AMAT) $16.53 (unch) ... September "Max Pain Theory" at $15.00 ($1.00 increments)

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 12:51:06 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $25.81 +0.82% ... September "Max Pain Theory" at $25.00 ($2.50 increments)

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 12:47:38 PM

OPEC Output Quota at 28 Million Barrels Per Day

Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 12:42:11 PM

Nice run for YG (DEC) but it faces R at 604.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 12:34:13 PM

S&P Depository Receipts (SPY) $130.28 (unch) ... not trade at its WEEKLY Pivot. Not yet at least.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 12:32:47 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $113.97 +0.08% ... after slight bid above its WEEKLY Pivot of $114.00 to $114.02.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 12:30:50 PM

VIX 13.21 +0.37% ... slips back below correlative DAILY Pivot/WEEKLY Pivot. Session lows here.

Keene Little : 9/11/2006 12:23:31 PM

Nice recovery off the low--YM has closed its gap but not exactly pulling back from it. ES is not far behind and should close its gap. Whether or not this will lead to anything higher or instead is the end of the sideways consolidation is too hard to tell. It could be worth a stab at a short here since the next leg down, if this is the end of the consolidation, should be a good move.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 12:17:03 PM

QQQQ $38.72 (unch) ... fills this morning's downside gap.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 12:14:52 PM

Bonds selling and oil on a bid. I'm not chasing.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 12:12:39 PM

Patriotic rally taking hold!

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 12:12:11 PM

iShare Russell 2000 (IWM) $70.36 -0.29% ... here come the mighty small caps at WEEKLY Pivot and session high!

Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 12:08:16 PM

The buy trigger point might have very well been the NYSE 50 dma earlier.

Jane Fox : 9/11/2006 12:02:17 PM


Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 11:59:55 AM

And the perfect hedge this week is gold. Friday is a big deal with CPI, no funds are committing anything until then. Feds next week, etc...So I am hoping for a nice low in order to get in with a cushion.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 11:58:22 AM

I agree Tab. I am just waiting for a retest of August 24 low and QQQQ 38 gap as well as a little more oversold conditions.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 11:54:43 AM

Algeria's Oil Minister Confirms OPEC Leaves Output Unchanged

VIENNA (Dow Jones)--Algeria's Oil Minister Chakib Khelil confirmed Monday that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries had agreed to leave its current pump-at-will output policy unchanged for now, adding ministers still had to agree on who would become the group's secretary general.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 11:53:26 AM

DJ- OPEC President: 4 Million B/D Oil Would Be Ideal Spare Capacity

Tab Gilles : 9/11/2006 11:52:33 AM

Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) As stated on Friday 12:07PM post. I see the Nasdaq and tech leading a rally into year end. With the bottom being put in July. Sept and Oct do present an obstacle historically for equities... however, the stage is set with lower oil and the reasons I highlighted Friday for a substantial move upward. Link

Just look at the interest in Freesscale (FSL) +20% today alone. Freescale (FSL) a spin off of Motorola came public 2 years ago. It has been working on a new chip technology for the last 10 years now called "MRAM" Magnetoresistive Random Access Memory Data is written by a small electrical current which flips electron spins, so one spin or an opposite is the binary code. MRAM is less volatile and can store greater amounts of data while using less power, plus unlike flashdrives doesn't degrade overtime. Link

Jane Fox : 9/11/2006 11:47:38 AM


Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 11:43:34 AM

BIOMedics/Genetics looks to be gaining favor from "oversold" level.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 11:41:25 AM

Goldcorp (GG) $25.10 -7.24% Link ... A PRECious Metals stock I thought we should close out puts on just as I left on vacation.

Sector was very "overbought" and just starting to soften up.

Jane Fox : 9/11/2006 11:41:25 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices fell Monday, sending yields higher, as market players await sales of 10-year notes and corporate securities as well as key inflation data later in the week.

The market will see "a slow grind higher for yields, lower for prices," said Kim Rupert, managing director of global fixed income analysis at research firm Action Economics. "There's a lot of supply, not just the Treasury, but the corporate calendar is pretty solid. Yields will edge a little bit higher."

But overall, the market is expected to see "quiet range-bound trade going into the [inflation] data" Friday, Rupert said.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 11:37:45 AM

08/31/06 to 09/08/06 Sector Bell Curve at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 11:36:30 AM

Weekly S2 for QM Otober is 64.10, that could be hit and would be right in line with November contract at 65, which I will buy. If folks think Opec will keep pumping at these prices: wrong. They have clearly stated they want the range to be 65/75.

Keene Little : 9/11/2006 11:32:21 AM

The short term pattern is muddy looking and has me guessing on the next short term move. If the market turns back up though it will leave a bullish divergence on the 60-min chart. With opex gyrations it's difficult to tell if a quick move in one direction is meaningful or not. Not a bad time to sit quietly and let this pick a direction.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 11:31:36 AM

NQ 20 dma at 1587.75 is R today.

Jane Fox : 9/11/2006 11:23:02 AM

Dateline WSJ - GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) announced Monday that it has agreed to pay $3.1 billion to settle its transfer pricing tax dispute with the U.S. Internal Revenue Service.

The company said the settlement resolves all the issues which were in dispute in this case. The settlement covers federal, state and local taxes, interest and also the benefit of tax relief on the payments made.

The settlement covers the dispute for the period 1989-2000, which was due to go to trial in February 2007, and also covers the subsequent years 2001-2005. Glaxo said it had previously made provision for the dispute and this settlement won't have any significant impact on the company's reported earnings or tax rate.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 11:22:04 AM

YM contract alert ... any YM futures trades I make going forward will be for the December (YM06Z) contract.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 11:14:41 AM

SPX NH/NL currently 14:1

08/31/06 closing tally was 15:0

08/29/06 looks to have been "best" at 31:0

Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 11:12:52 AM

As for NQ, I am waiting and hoping for 1569.50/1570.50. Worth a try. Below that, it is the QQQQ gap, so use tight stops. Remember, TXN update after the close.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 11:12:51 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 9/11/2006 11:12:30 AM

VIX is telling me that ES's daily lows will hold. Link

Jane Fox : 9/11/2006 11:10:41 AM

This is a "sell the rallies" day. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 11:09:03 AM

They are way overdoing it, like inflationis no risk anymore. Next support is 587, but they might get back above 591.30. I am still looking for an entry at some point. Maybenot today, but I think they will rverese hard tomorrow.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 11:07:16 AM

Stopped out of YG

Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 11:06:17 AM

I just can't get over the fact that NYSE is already down at 50 dma.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 11:04:02 AM

YG is a nightmare to trade, spreads, stop runs, etc.. I don't think my stop will hold, but I don't want to take any chances. This is a hedge play going into CPI Friday.

Tab Gilles : 9/11/2006 11:03:15 AM

OPEC meeting in Vienna today.

$DJUSEN and Profunds ENPIX/SNPIX Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 11:02:40 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 11:00:50 AM

Long YG 592, stop 590.50. I took weekly S2. Tight stop.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 10:51:44 AM

Natural Gas Index (XNG.X) 411.03 -2.48% ... probes its 200-day SMA (411.05) for first time since bold break back above (402.51) on 06/28/06.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 10:48:58 AM

A lot of 1, 2, and 3-lettered "energy" stocks listed on the NYSE.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 10:44:23 AM

NYSE hits 50 dma. Ahead of everyone. That is very strange and bearish.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 10:42:27 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 10:42:41 AM

YG weekly S2 is 591.30. I would serioulsy consider buying it. Oil could be finding a base after weeks of selling and the dollar is down. In any case, use tight stops. If 591.30 breaks, next support is 587. If QM 65.05 breaks, next support is 64.50.

Keene Little : 9/11/2006 10:40:29 AM

If the current leg down is just going to be part of a larger sideways consolidation from last Thursday, two equal legs down from Friday's high should do it. That would be at YM 11418. ES has a slightly different pattern and suggests 1303.75 for a downside target, which was just hit. Watch for potential support near here (for at least a bounce).

Jane Fox : 9/11/2006 10:38:24 AM


Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 10:37:28 AM

Either Bush has lost a lot of friends on the Street, or at some point we will reverse.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 10:36:29 AM

VIX 13.83 +5.09% ... did stick its head above the 14.00 level on 09/07/06.

No "problem" taking some profits on 100% gain out-the-money puts.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 10:36:12 AM

I think there is a very solid chance we get in that QQQQ gap 37.70/38. Watch all 50 dma's as well.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 10:35:16 AM

Put up the QM NOv contract as well. Oct stops trading next week, and sometimes they hit the lo of the coming month, like 65 on Nov.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 10:34:03 AM

COMP loses 2150. 20 dma is 2155, so that is the obstacle. If we don;t get back above 2150, next stop is 2113.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 10:33:30 AM

XOM-VM closed out alert with offer exhausted ... $1.70 x $1.80

Good Trade!

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 10:32:25 AM

XOM-VM alert $1.70 x $1.75 with XOM $65.08. Daily Interval chart Link

Have been partial order filled in personal account at $1.75 offer.

Tab Gilles : 9/11/2006 10:30:36 AM

Emisphere Technologies (EMIS) $7.60 -$0.37

Nearing my 1st initial target of $7.50 200-ma next test? Link

On Friday I recommended exiting Sept $10 Put (MTQUB.X), entered 8/18 $1.55/$1.80, currently at $2.00/$2.25. On Friday they ttraded @ $1.85/$2.10.

Rolled over into Dec $10 Put (MTQXB.X) Bid $2.40/Ask $2.70...currently Bid $2.50/Ask $2.75

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 10:21:39 AM

Exxon/Mobil (XOM) $65.42 -2.08% Link ... Some formidable near-term support being tested here. Has currently retraced 38.2% of its 06/13/06 to 08/24/06 relative low and all-time high closes.

Keene Little : 9/11/2006 10:21:19 AM

Market can't quite decide which way to go this morning. But the overall choppy feel to the bounce looks bearish to me. If we get another push higher, especially with a YM gap close at 11473, I'd try to short that high.

Tab Gilles : 9/11/2006 10:19:48 AM

Murphy Oil (MUR) follow-up to 9/8 10:39 AM post...

Exited today @ $47 per STOP set back on 8/8 11:59AM post. Entered @ $51 -7.8% loss. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 10:16:26 AM

SMH loses 33.45 again and it's time to be careful again. As long as QM holds 65.175, oil will find support.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 10:12:34 AM

Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 703.91 -0.65% ...

Tab Gilles : 9/11/2006 10:11:23 AM

NABE Outlook Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 10:11:20 AM

iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) $70.11 -0.65% ... 60-minute interval chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 10:10:31 AM

OIl reached key support at 65.175 so gold will also find support especially with the dollar down. Don't be OBVIOUS.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 10:09:38 AM

1582 held. I had a feeling they would be supporting things. The tip off so far has been the SOX and SMH. Now watch SMH 33.45 for support. If NQ gets down to 1582, then we will fall again. But for now, they are holding it up.

Jane Fox : 9/11/2006 10:06:34 AM

* DEC. GOLD LAST DOWN $20.50, OR 3.3%, AT $596.80/OZ
* DEC. SILVER DROPS 75.5 CENTS, OR 6.1%, TO $11.53/OZ

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 10:02:11 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 9/11/2006 9:59:32 AM

DAteline MarketWatch - Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn and St. Louis Fed President William Poole are both slated to speak Monday.

Earlier, Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Cathy Minehan said the U.S. economy will likely slow, helping to bring down core inflation.

Speaking to the National Association for Business Economics, Minehan said the risks to her forecast have grown on both sides in recent months. The economy could slow too much if housing prices actually decline.

"A key risk is that inflation will continue to rise or persist at high levels and embed itself in consumer and business plans," she said.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 9:55:12 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jane Fox : 9/11/2006 9:53:35 AM

These are giving a very clear picture as to who is in control today. Take heed. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 9:53:20 AM

Watch SMH 33.45. SOX is green, shorts be a little careful.

Tab Gilles : 9/11/2006 9:51:42 AM

Citrix Systems (CTXS) Follow-up to post made 9/8 12:42 PM.

RBC upgraded today...set $40 PO. Link RBC upgrades CTXS to Top Pick from Outperform and sets a $40 tgt saying over the next few months, Citrix should have multiple catalysts, including the Q3 conference call, customer conference, and annual partner conference. The firm says the Q3 conference call should be a positive catalyst as the co is likely to offer a slight revenue improvement over street estimates with better operating margin performance than was experienced in Q2. The firm says they believe as CTXS progresses into 2007 the street estimates will likely move toward a business model which has revs closer to $1.35 bln and $1.75 in EPS. In addition, they say the co is less likely to do any large acquisition in 2007 as they are focused on growing and improving profitability for its existing business.

daily... Link 180 minute.... Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 9:51:38 AM

Exxon/Mobil (XOM) alert $65.33 -2.23% ... with the XOM Oct $65 Puts (XOM-VM) currently $1.55 x $1.65.

Target on these options is $1.75.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 9:49:56 AM

Don't forget the PPT will be hard at work to hold up the markets on this day.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 9:49:00 AM

If NQ 1582 breaks, the level of support I would be would be 1569.50/1570.50, confluence 38.2% and weekly S1. QM has support at 65.175. YG at 591.30 and 586.70.

Keene Little : 9/11/2006 9:44:30 AM

If we get a gap close (YM 11473 and ES 1310.50) it could make a good time to try a short. Obviously YM will close it sooner than ES at this point so it's hard to tell whether or not that one will influence the others.

Jeff Bailey : 9/11/2006 9:37:15 AM

Swing trade bullish call filled alert on the iShares Russell 2000 IWM Jan $71 Calls (DIW-AS) at $3.60.

This was an open order GTC from 08/31/06 and was filled on 09/07/06 when the IWM traded $70.10.

Jane Fox : 9/11/2006 9:35:04 AM

Ad line is a bearish -1051 and AD volume is of course below 0.

Jane Fox : 9/11/2006 9:27:56 AM

Steelmaker Ipsco in $1.46 bln deal for NS Group TEL AVIV (MarketWatch) -- Steelmaker Ipsco Inc. has definitively agreed to pay $66 a share cash for steel-tube producer NS Group Inc., the companies said on Monday.

Dell delays 10-Q filing over SEC probe; buybacks suspended NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Dell Inc. on Monday said a previously disclosed probe of its accounting on accruals, reserves and other balance-sheet items will cause the delay of the company's second-quarter financial statements.

The Fed: Growth should slow, inflation subside, Fed's Minehan says BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. economy will likely slow, helping to bring down core inflation, Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Cathy Minehan said Monday.

H-P board postpones decision on Dunn, probe fallout SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The board of directors of Hewlett-Packard Co. met Sunday for several hours to discuss the future of Chairwoman Patricia Dunn and the fallout over the company's investigation into board leaks to the press, but ended the meeting without announcing any decision and said it would reconvene on Monday.

Jane Fox : 9/11/2006 9:21:22 AM

Here is a daily chart of Oil's emini QM. Notice how similar the RSI and MACD are to the swing low made on Feb 15 of this year. I think Oil bears have bitten off more than they can chew and the bulls will need to take over for a while. Ya I know I have been saying that for a while but I have more evidence of a short term bottom now however I will wait for the RSI to break back above 30 before I take a long. Link

Jane Fox : 9/11/2006 9:12:21 AM

Here is a 240 minute chart of ES which shows support very clearly. You can also see the negative MACD divergence which brought this market back to support. Like I said on Thursday and Friday, ES bulls have been the driver, leading the other markets in this rally, but they are have gotten themselves into a do or die here. Link

Jane Fox : 9/11/2006 9:03:50 AM

The NYSE, AMEX, ECBOT will observe a moment of silence to honor those who lost theirs lives on September 11th 2001 at 9:29 to 9:30

NASDAQ will observe a moment of silence at 10:29 to 10:30

All times of course are EDT.

Jane Fox : 9/11/2006 8:59:42 AM

Here is the daily chart of the Gold emini ZG (100 oz.) and you can see the clear break of support. Link

Jane Fox : 9/11/2006 8:57:14 AM

Overnight Gold, Oil and Natural Gas all resumed their downward treks. Using the eminis, Oil made an overnight low of 65.125 and Gold 598.60. Natural Gas' low was 5.315. Link

Jane Fox : 9/11/2006 8:51:44 AM

Good morning all. All the equity markets broke their respective PDLs overnight but have recovered and are now trading ~ mid range. This is actually quite surprising considering how bearish Oil was overnight.

BTW if you are a gold bug DON'T look at the next set of charts. Link

Keene Little : 9/11/2006 8:42:10 AM

After dropping significantly overnight, before European markets opened, futures have recovered about half of their decline. I didn't expect to see the market drop this hard out of the gate on Monday so it has me scratching my head a little and I'll have to wait until after the cash market opens to see what gives. A Friday rally/Monday decline may just be part of opexantics.

A continuation of a sideways choppy pattern from last Thursday's low would suggest we'll stay in this consolidation pattern for another 2 days or so before dropping lower. So be careful of the whipsaws (I know, so what else is new).

Marc Eckelberry : 9/11/2006 7:17:36 AM

Markets are on a freefall, support is now critical as we hit last week's lows and then some. Gold looks headed for 590 level (Dec) and oil finds support at 65.50. Ugly day, but MU was upgraded and TXN does an update after the close. This is also opex so there is the possibility of a reversal at some point. NQ looks headed for a test of 1565.75, August 24 low. That would put pressure on the QQQQ gap at 37.70/38.

Market Monitor Archives