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Marc Eckelberry : 9/13/2006 2:54:09 AM

Now if oil would catch another bid. We had it up to 65.30 (November), just shy of my 65.60 target, so the exit was not triggered. If you are not comfortable, get out now for minor loss at 64.95.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/13/2006 2:49:16 AM

YG 589.30. Those sneaky devils.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/13/2006 2:48:32 AM

Might not last, but it's there.

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2006 2:48:08 AM

Well, I'm off to bed.

Gold can bid now.

Right?

Right!

Only those that have followed the MM late at night know what I'm talking about.

This is a test ... only a test.(similarity, or divergence to the past?)

Marc Eckelberry : 9/13/2006 2:47:43 AM

EUR up 3 pips.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/13/2006 2:47:25 AM

YG 588.60

Marc Eckelberry : 9/13/2006 2:47:16 AM

And down goes the dollar, up goes the Euro.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/13/2006 2:45:25 AM

I lowered my stop to 585, but that's me. I am a little more long term on this one. Nevertheless, got a scare and it's not over. The dollar might save the day, though.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/13/2006 2:43:29 AM

EUR/USD down only 1 pip.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/13/2006 2:42:50 AM

Dollar about to turn negative. Could that happen?

Marc Eckelberry : 9/13/2006 2:42:17 AM

Jeff, they sure did go after some retail stops. Caught a bid once again.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/13/2006 2:40:23 AM

The lower low was made with a bullish divergence and aggressive traders can stay in, but others should step aside.

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2006 2:40:21 AM

Looks like "they're" just going after retail overnight stops to me ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2006 2:38:14 AM

Let the "gold dust" settle ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2006 2:36:51 AM

Got your back Marc

Marc Eckelberry : 9/13/2006 2:34:49 AM

Alert: YG loses 586 and even though it could find solid support again, I would exit all gold longs and let the dust settle.

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2006 2:28:44 AM

YI Dec $11.02

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2006 2:26:48 AM

YG Dec alert 586 ... fresh overnight lows

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2006 1:52:30 AM

Closed end funds (see 01:46:46) look largely fixed income.(BDV, BTF, DSU, EFR, FHY, IQI, JRS, LEO, MHF, NRI, NRL, OIB, PHT, PTY, RLF, XAA)

Jeff Bailey : 9/13/2006 1:46:46 AM

Sector List of New Highs and New Lows at this Link

Tab Gilles : 9/13/2006 12:58:44 AM

Profunds UltraOTC (UOPIX) & UltraSmall Cap (UAPIX) Followup... From past post made on 6/27 11:20 AM, 8/16 3:26 PM & 8/17 8:21PM.

Since recommending these two funds back in late June, they're up about 10% each. Link Link

Tuesday's 2% move in Nasdaq stock confirms what I've been saying since last week. That technology would lead this rally. [As stated in post made 9/8 12:07PM & 9/11 @ 11:52 AM & 9/11 @ 1:05PM.]

I still believe that this run is about 1/2 way and could last into the new year. Yes there's always a chance of some unexpected geopolitcal and/or weather related occurance to deal with that could prove to be disruptive interim...but currently its bullish.

Keene Little : 9/13/2006 12:37:28 AM

Ascending wedges have a habit of morphing into larger wedges just when you think it's breaking down, and opex could be seeing some big players continuing to push the market up to catch some bears napping so as to get their help goosing the market higher. So while the upside continues it also continues to look bearish. Internal strength, as measured by the advance/decline ratio, is waning as we make new highs and this is one of the signs of a bearish ascending wedge.

So I'm sticking to the wedge idea and while it appears we now have a little more upside work to do, as depicted on this DOW chart, we should be getting close to the end of this rally. A lot of people are starting to talk about a "Republican" rally into the elections and that may be setting us up for a nasty fall if it doesn't happen. Certainly this pattern says the rally is not going to happen. Link

Be careful if you're long and I'll continue to look for short entry levels. DOW 11583 (cash) could be our target. In the meantime look to buy pullbacks (just be ready to bolt quickly). The COMP has reached an interesting level--it's up testing its broken uptrend line from the August low and is just under its 200-dma at 2223. If it can press higher through that then the next Fib projection target matches the broken Aug04-Oct 05 uptrend line at 2242. Link

Keene Little : 9/13/2006 12:26:01 AM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/13/2006 12:24:45 AM

Remember when we were all trading and quoting the September oil contract and everyone was waiting or 80, but we stalled at 78 and never looked back? Well, 80 happened in the October contract. This is the same set up, once again. Everyone quoting the October contract, and expecting 65 to hold. It didn't, but that does not mean 60 tomorrow. 65 is the November contract and it appears to be holding after hours. Everyone will be quoting the Nov contract next week and there is a very good chance it will be at or above 65. Remember that price range 65/75? That figure was not made out of air. It is what Opec and Goldman Sachs want, no matter what you hear. In fact, the October contract is now trading back above 64 as I type. So yes, we could get 62/63, but it is time to put some longs to work as they quietly try to get the masses to give them even better prices out of fear. Dip in, book some profits, dip back in, etc... When it sticks, it won't look back.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 11:40:34 PM

I'm using the Nov. contract for QM if scalping long, just because it gets a little more bid, as traders roll-over into it every day. On that note, I would like to remind readers that these quad witching days have one thing in common: buy support / sell resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 11:55:02 PM

Bear Correction Alert! ... According to Dorsey/Wright & Associates, Tuesday's activity had the S&P-100 Bullish % (BPOEX) seeing a net gain of 2 stocks to point and figure buy signals. It would currently take a 58% measure for this market to achieve "bull confirmed" status.

GS @ $158 Link

LEH @ $68 Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 11:50:11 PM

Bull Confirmed Alert! ... According to Dorsey/Wright & Associates, Tuesday's activity had the NASDAQ-100 Bullish % (BPNDX) seeing a net gain of 3 stock to point and figure buy signals. Bull confirmed at 42% with this narrow measure of market internals at 43%.

BPNDX chart Link

WFMI @ $56 Link

EXPD @ $43 Link (A name MM traders will remember)

CTXS @ $34 Link (somebody's mentioned this one the past couple of days I think) Tab Gilles? Can't keep track.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 11:06:31 PM

Getting a bid on that oil. QM (November) long 65.05, raise stop to 64.70. Exit target is 65.50/65.60.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 10:39:30 PM

Pivots change at ECBOT open 7:15 PM ET. That is when the new day starts.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 10:33:23 PM

YG Dec did an exact 38.2% projection day H/L and 38.2% July at 586.20 average. Good enough for a bounce.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 10:03:48 PM

Scalp it, don't love it.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 10:03:33 PM

Back in long YG Dec at 587, stop 586. Monthly S2 is 586.70. Low so far is 586.30.

OI Technical Staff : 9/12/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 9:47:44 PM

Actually, that was a question (09:27:16 PM). And a rhetorical one at that.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 9:32:15 PM

I thought we got one today at 11:18:03 AM?

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 9:29:14 PM

Should get a pivot run at some point with YG to 597.50. QM Nov at 65.625.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 9:27:16 PM

Good point Marc. No question who has the greater tolerance for pain. Central banks, or individual investors?

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 9:25:15 PM

I wonder if Buffet is still short the dollar.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 9:25:04 PM

The fact is Jeff, that individual investors hold far more than any central bank, so I think that will pass. As far as currency, EUR falling .24% against the dollar, JPY down .29%, so it's about the same. Dollar is stronger. Odd with that trade gap, but they are banking on lower oil import costs.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 9:22:49 PM

You were targeting 584 on gold when I was headed out the door on vacation weren't you Marc?

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 9:19:29 PM

YG Dec is carving out that 590 support zone. It's tough with the dollar rise and oil drop. But the seasonal (Sepetmber) bullishness of gold will eventually take hold. Use your risk tolerance, there is risk to 582 on a break below 587.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 9:16:54 PM

December Yen PnF chart Link

Look familiar? Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 9:11:03 PM

You think it is the euro Marc? I'm thinking yen. Looks more like gold and "closer" perhaps to the yuan.

Seem to remember it was inflation fears of "hyper growth" in China/Asia that was so inflationary.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 9:05:56 PM

Might be some good jewelry sales on OSTK by end of year?

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 9:05:12 PM

Bank of Portugal sold 20 tons of the stuff last couple of month.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 9:03:12 PM

Yep ... noted some central bank selling in yesterday's Market Monitor.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 9:02:38 PM

Had to be "bold" to hold onto gold tonight Link ... especially with that afternoon bid in bonds.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 8:59:36 PM

European banks must be offloading metals. It's best to step aside and let that take its course.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 8:58:58 PM

About 2 points in gold just to get rid of 10 YG's if you were long overnight.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 8:57:59 PM

Nope ... just trying to get a look-see at the buy/sell levels bias.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 8:40:43 PM

Dollar does a rally and gold takes a hit, but Euro is now stabilizing.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 8:39:59 PM

I can see you're getting in to those commodity futures, Jeff. Forget the ishares...


Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 8:19:59 PM

yi06z daily interval bar chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 8:16:26 PM

yi06z $11.10

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 8:15:54 PM

Hi Ho Silver?

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 8:02:52 PM

yg06z alert 592.80

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 6:38:28 PM

If that wedge R holds, look at the fib projection it sets up: 100% is exactly gap close at 37.70. Mmm. Coincidence? Link
Of course, it has to mean failure at 39.75.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 6:32:26 PM

In fact, a look at that chart just made me raise my NQ short at 1634 stop to 1637.50. I don't want the noise to shake me out.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 6:28:29 PM

QQQQ still in that bearish ascending wedge: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 6:21:38 PM

Since gold corrected further, it follows that silver could be in for some trouble. Nevrtheless, watch that level (11.08/11.12)

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 6:20:28 PM

Speaking of silver (thanks Jeff), YI December bounced off today at confluence 200 sma and ema: Link
Obvious must hold.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 6:18:09 PM

DLTR $30.99 +4.16% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 6:17:47 PM

Good gravy ... FDO $28.64 +3.69% ... so much for "lower gasoline" might benefit the disounter?

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 6:09:42 PM

Forex Global Weekly Economic Calendar Sunday to Friday at this Link

Got a look at Britain's PPI data on Monday. Haven't been following Eurozone CPI for Friday to see if forecasts were revised lower. Current forecast for Eurozone PPI is +0.2% m/m

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 5:42:59 PM

Lower oil is fine, but interest rates will be key, so I am still looking at Friday CPI with concern. At some point, others will to.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 5:41:35 PM

NQ R1 is at 1650 or so, which would be 50% projection August. Pivot is 1622, and old gap close is 1623.50. Any short here should be considered a scalp until proven otherwise, There is a good chance we will hit 200 dma's for COMP, NDX and QQQQ before pulling back with all those calls up there. But you never know what they have in mind and until we break that August trendline R, it's worth thinking short, but use caution.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 5:51:29 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Stock/Option Trades

Swing trade short 1/2 position for the iShares Silver Trust (AMEX:SLV) at $110.75. Stop currently $121.00 with target of $90.00.

Swing traded long two (2) of the Overstock.com OSTK Oct. $20 Calls (QKT-JD) at $1.10. No stop with targets of $22.42 and $24.34 in the underlying.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 5:17:48 PM

QQQQ pc ratio .23 at 40 strike. (397K call, 90K puts). No comment.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 5:11:40 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 5:05:34 PM

Gordon should not hit any rigs, but Helen is forming off Africa. Hurricane risk is not over. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 5:02:04 PM

CRB Index CLOSES at new 52-week low!

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 4:58:14 PM

S&P 100 CLOSES at new 52-week high!

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 4:47:28 PM

SMH chart, another reason to be cautious: Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 4:39:40 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 4:34:00 PM

Looks like QM October could go to 62.70, 61.8% August and maybe S1. I would use bounce to get out and scalp this trade.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 4:29:38 PM

NQ short 1634, raising stop to 1636.50.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 4:23:45 PM

I would not take that last minute NQ short if it wasn't for the close below trendline. Have to give it a try.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 4:23:09 PM

I am going to scalp in and out of these trades overnight. Feel free to do the same. Wednesday is usually a drop during opex, but quad witching can be supportive. Which is probably what is going on. Whacking all those puts expecting a decline.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 4:16:12 PM

I might even move it up a littel. Do as you feel is right, but days like (R3) this usually get a little pullack.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 4:15:33 PM

Here it is, it's also the top of the old wedge: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 4:12:16 PM

Stop raised to 1635.50. There is the trendline which we are closing below it seems (from Augsust).

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 4:11:09 PM

Scalp short.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 4:11:00 PM

Also short NQ at 1634, stop 1635.25.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 4:09:24 PM

Lowering the stop on QM Nov to 64.50. You should get out now if you don't like this action, it is getting dangerous.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 4:05:42 PM

There is the same negativity surrounding oil and gold that was around equities in July after two months of selling. The question is if everyone is out. If they are, then the chance for upside news increases as the chance for downside news gets more priced in.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 4:00:48 PM

All I ask is we close November above 65, leaving a tail behind. If that happens, there could be some overnight buyers as they rotate into next month at perceived lows.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 4:00:44 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPY $131.59 : YM 11,581

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 3:57:57 PM

INDU and DIA did trade their MONTHLY R1s.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 3:56:29 PM

Should QQQQ close here at $39.70 ... tomorrow's DAILY R1 would be $40.02.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 3:55:38 PM

I might get spanked for being early. Doesn't look good and I might close any second.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 3:54:46 PM

These are risky trades, so please don't do them if you are conservative. I am betting on short covering move ahead of inventories. I am using November because I think it will see some bidding. If you use Ocotber, the trade is 63.875.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 3:53:27 PM

I'm showing WEEKLY R1 traded in indices covered in Pivot Matrix today.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 3:53:02 PM

Long QM NOvember at 65.05, stop 65.75.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 3:51:03 PM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 384.92 +1.13% ... did "register" a trade at its WEEKLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 3:48:47 PM

HSBC SAYS US BANKS TOO EXPENSIVE

DJ- Firm's North America chief says buying U.S. banks at current prices is "uneconomical." HSBC will focus on growing organically and building a presence in "gateway cities" with big populations.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 3:42:08 PM

NINE STATES HOLD ELECTION PRIMARIES

DJ- Nine states, including New York, and Washington D.C. hold primary elections today. Glitches delay voting in a few districts. Rhode Island's Republican Sen. Chafee confronts stiff opposition in his bid for a second term.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 3:43:39 PM

If the VIX wasn't so darn low, I would say we are in for new 2006 highs. But super low VIX and high PC ratio has historically equaled big trouble for the markets. In any case, this is a tech rally below the 200 dma. I just can't feel too excited. Today's volume was normal, nothing extraordinary. It wasn't low, but it is in the 97%(QQQQ). No more. GOOG at 92%, INTC at 82%, but AAPL at 1.97% and TXN at 1.72% so select issues are carrying this one.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 3:40:35 PM

US TRADE GAP HITS RECORD IN JULY

DJ- U.S. trade balance widens to $68.04 billion from $64.82 billion in June as the price of foreign oil climbs to a record and exports slip for the first time in five months. Economists expected a deficit of $65.5 billion.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 3:36:43 PM

Electronic Arts (ERTS) $54.52 +4.34% ... to make some games for Apple's new Nano

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 3:35:54 PM

Apple's iTunes to start selling movies ... Reuters Coverage at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 3:34:32 PM

Raising the stop on YG DEC long to 593 (in at 596.50). I will profile a QM trade soon. As for NQ, we will whack the 200 dma for QQQQ and NDX (and SMH).

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 3:25:38 PM

Bearish divergences on the daily COMP

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 3:23:59 PM

COMP stalls right at December 2005 open.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 3:22:12 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 3:21:04 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - Oil and gas stocks resumed their downward spiral Tuesday, retreating as crude prices fell well below $65 a barrel, their seventh consecutive loss.

The Amex Oil Index ($XOI) was down 0.9% at 1,054.1 points, adding to Monday's 2.4% fall.

The Philadelphia Oil Service Index ($OSX) was off 1.7% at 177 points, wiping out an early 1.1% advance. It fell 4.2% Monday. And the Amex Natural Gas Index ($XNG) was down 0.5% at 409.3 as natural gas futures in New York surrendered early gains.

Crude futures for October delivery, after a brief rally at the open, were down $1.21 to $64.40 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The October natural gas futures contract was off 1 cent at $5.66 per million British thermal units.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' decision Monday to leave their production quotas unchanged weighed more heavily on the market than any jitters sparked by an attack on the U.S. embassy in Damascus. The attack failed to breech the compound and left three of the four attackers dead. There were no U.S. casualties.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 3:16:23 PM

Jewelers all over the world, Christmas here, wedding season in India, will not pass up these prices in gold. They can't afford to gamble that they might go lower. Add the fact that oil is getting near a short term bottom and the CPI numbers Friday, I think it is a good bet to start stepping in incrementally. September is hardly ever bearish for gold. I know its scary, but that is my thought on the subject. Please use tight stops.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 3:11:55 PM

Will run the MONTHLY's, but using March relative high to recent low close retracement.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 3:11:59 PM

This trade is risky, but it looks like a doji day so far.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 3:11:26 PM

Also noting some bullish divergences 30 mn: Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 3:10:47 PM

Will target $22.42 and $24.34 for those OSTK calls.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 3:08:20 PM

I am long YG Dec at 596.50, stop 592. It is holding on pretty well and jewlery demand will be quite high this season. Furthermore, it will still remain a hedge into Friday. Not for conservative traders. I was waiting for 587, but we have been holding up very well considering the decline in oil.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 3:07:29 PM

Filled alert at $1.10 on the QKT-JD

OSTK $20.02 +9.21%

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 3:03:42 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 3:00:14 PM

IWM $72.26 +2.52% ... 32 million so far.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 3:00:08 PM

VIX at 11.65, low 11.55. Jeez, is that scary to see in September.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 2:59:27 PM

Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 725.63 +2.55% ... edges above downward trend (all-time high to recent 09/05/06 relative high)

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 2:57:23 PM

+40 day coming.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 2:54:37 PM

Swing trade call option alert ... let's bid two (2) of the Overstock.com OSTK Oct. $20 Calls (QKT-JD) for $1.10.

Currently $1.05 x $1.20 with OSTK Link $20.00 +9.11%

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 2:52:57 PM

Blasting through everything. Next is trendline R from August and 23.6% at 1634.75. That might be a little more tough, but the day is for the bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 2:52:43 PM

Remember the "O" ???

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 2:48:54 PM

YM's high on Sept 5th was 11588 and that should provide some resistance today.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 2:47:47 PM

Those SHLD Link options look expensive ... $7.00 for an Oct $155

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 2:45:03 PM

Hmmm ... you think Mr. Cramer will pum SHLD tonight?

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 2:44:36 PM

Retailers ringing up some gains ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 2:43:16 PM

Biogen Idec (BIIB) $43.51 -1.13% ... Hmmmm ... did undercut its WEEKLY S1 $43.09 with session low of $43.01.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 2:42:06 PM

Amgen (AMGN) $69.09 +1.17% ... did kiss its WEEKLY R1 $69.17.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 2:40:39 PM

QQQQ $39.59 +1.61% ... destiny trade for $39.95 by week's end.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 2:41:17 PM

Here come the biotechs .... BTK.X 664.08 +0.68% ... edging above WEEKLY Pivot 662.66.

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 2:38:19 PM

I took ES long at 1317.50 so I have about 6 points now. I think I will hold this one overnight ARGHHH!!!!

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 2:38:14 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $114.91 +0.83% ... threatens a close above its 80.9% (52-week high close, 06/13/06 relative low close) retracement.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 2:32:44 PM

This could be the washout day I was looking for in oil. Note that YG is well above yesterday lows.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 2:32:28 PM

Ford (F) $9.03 +3.55% Link ... "moronic" move after mid-summer restructuring.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 2:28:10 PM

63.35 is monthly S2. 63.875 is 50% projection August.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 2:26:57 PM

Inventories tomorrow...

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 2:26:44 PM

QM collpase. Brave souls can start nibbling, but there is now risk to 63.

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 2:20:13 PM

Oil is now down to 64 and continues to fall.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 2:18:43 PM

CRB Index (cr00y) 312.03 -0.54% .... BIG test of longer-term support in here.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 2:18:23 PM

NQ 1623.50 is exact gap close.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 2:18:04 PM

COMP 2200. They want to challenge September highs. The VIX is back down in lala land, but who cares.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 2:16:08 PM

Making some notes here ... INDU/DIA , NDX/QQQ/SMH, TNX.X did/have/are trade their WEEKLY R1's.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 2:15:07 PM

BIX 384.14 +0.93% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 2:14:33 PM

Sharp decline in 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) in last hour ... 10-year down 1.4 bp at 4.785%.

Could cap gains in banks.

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 2:14:18 PM

Notice Gold's retracement yesterday did not get the RSI above 30. I would like to short this market but I need the RSI a lot higher before I do. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 2:12:39 PM

Gap is pretty much closed now. We had a higher high with bearish divergence, now shorts should lower NQ stops to 1622, no higher. Longs should raise stops to 1617. 1621.25 is immediate R.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 2:09:00 PM

Buyers were lurking at WEEKLY Pivot $31.22 this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 2:08:31 PM

Texas Instruments (TXN) $32.04 +0.81% ... reverses morning losses. Back to challenge yesterday's highs and its WEEKLY R1 ($31.95).

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 2:06:44 PM

Applied Materials (AMAT) $17.29 +5.23% ... edges above WEEKLY R2 ($17.25).

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 2:05:46 PM

If you bought QM at 64.10, you should cinch up your stops to even.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 1:48:29 PM

Homebuilders have exploded ... DJUSHB +6.24%

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 1:46:46 PM

Somebody chunked 1 million in the IWM ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 1:45:44 PM

Did anyone hear that?

Sound of a whistle ... hand slapping the mat

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 1:43:26 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 1:42:31 PM

Internals say they make new highs, be careful if short. Volume isnot there but it could come.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 1:38:05 PM

This last push at resistance is on lower volume.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 1:27:52 PM

North American Telecom (XTC.X) 870.11 +1.44% ... finds a 52-week high.

Good'ol T $32.05 Link ...

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 1:30:30 PM

QM has s2 at 64 and weekly s2 at 64.10. I think we are headed down there and I would buy that, but use the November contract, which is about 1 more. The other option is to buy gold when that happens. YG 587 would be a great spot. I prefer the gold scenario because of the Indian/Chinese jewlery season. Always remember this: what you know is what the street alredy knows and has already discounted. You are listening to the noise from the media and the trick is to find the smart play which yields the most return at that point.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 1:25:05 PM

SPX NH/NL 30:2

Yesterday's tally was 24:1

On 08/29/06 was "best" at 31:0

Note sure what 09/01 thru 09/08 readings were.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 1:22:27 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 1:19:16 PM

Is the cheaper oil card played out? The markets have not made new highs since last week even though oil has made new lows. Keep an eye out for those kind of divergences. Markets need to make new highs today, period. There is lots of side money waiting for that to happen or fail.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 1:15:14 PM

That NDX trendline resistance is tough for bulls to conquer even with everything on their side. At least for now. Watch NDX 1598/1600.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 1:12:00 PM

Keene ... reminds me of my High School wrestling coach after I returned to school after having the flu for a week and was told I was going to wrestle varsity and face the #2 rankes wrestler in the state for my weight division.

I always wanted to wrestle varsity. I think I lasted about 1.5 minutes before I was on my back.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 1:07:20 PM

YG turns red ....

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 1:06:55 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 1:04:30 PM

IWM $71.56 +1.53% ... probes that "zone of resistance" from WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement.

Chart from yesterday's MM at 10:11:20 AM Link

Keene Little : 9/12/2006 1:03:37 PM

If we get a new high it should be accompanied by lots of short term negative divergences. That will be your clue to hit it short. Good luck.

Keene Little : 9/12/2006 1:02:21 PM

So far the pullback is of the sideways/down variety which means we should expect another new high even if it pulls back a little further. After a new high then we'll either get a larger pullback before heading higher again or it will be the end of the 4-day bounce and we'll start a new leg down (which is the way I'm leaning). I've got to leave for the rest of the day so I'll check back in for a review after the close.

Tab Gilles : 9/12/2006 1:01:30 PM

Has oil's sell off been over done near term and is it due for a technical bounce soon? hmmm... Link Link Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 1:00:27 PM

Sensing some bullish complacency among silver bulls ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 12:58:58 PM

iShares Silver Trust (AMEX:SLV) $110.95 +0.18% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 12:57:30 PM

Swing trade short 1/2 position alert for the iShares Silver Trust (AMEX:SLV) $111.00 +0.20% here with LIMIT of $110.00.

STOP goes $121, targeting $90.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 12:37:18 PM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 382.67 +0.54% Link .... tries to reclaim its 21-day SMA Link ... probably need something above WEEKLY R1 to get bullish MACD turn above zero.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 12:33:06 PM

Sudden drop in SMH, although still green. INTC pulls back below 10 dma. WIth that long term trendline for NDX I just posted, you have to wonder it it is possible for bulls to pass that milestone today. If short from highs, you should lower stop to 1619 now and play it safe. If long, your stops should be cinched up to 1612.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 12:27:04 PM

NDX at trendline: Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 12:22:11 PM

Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (RIO) $20.31 -0.44% Link ... slips below yesterday's low.

Tab Gilles : 9/12/2006 12:17:09 PM

Eaton Vance Limitied Duration Fund (EVV) Last updated on 8/4/06 2:40 PM post. I recommended using either the 21 or 50-ma as a trailing stop. It has since broken below and popped back over the 21dma, I prefer using the 50-ma. It's up to your risk tolerance. Point is that take some money off the table after the big run up since December is not a bad idea. Link

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 12:08:48 PM

Marc great minds think alike? :)

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 12:08:21 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $22.38 +1.91% Link ... notable 52-weeker at the NASDAQ.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 12:07:08 PM

Lots of dollar short covering in the wings.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 12:06:54 PM

Jane, we brougt up the same topic, I didn't even know you had...

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 12:05:57 PM

Watch the euro/dollar. I trade the futures on currencies, I prefer it to forex which messes you up on the pip spread when there is news. Looking at EUR/USD September (Globex 6eu6), there is pivot R at 1.2703. Gold will need some help at some point there.

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 12:05:54 PM

That last story is not good news for Gold bugs.

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 12:05:34 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar traded slightly higher against major foreign currencies Tuesday, as investors shrugged off a record U.S. trade deficit number and instead focused attention on the possibilities of further interest rate increases in the U.S.

The greenback briefly dipped before reversing course after the Commerce Department said the nation's trade deficit widened by 5% in July to $68.0 billion. This beats the previous record of $66.6 billion set last October. The widening of the deficit was larger than expected. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists had been for the deficit to widen to $65.4 billion.

The dollar recovered because "the markets are not terribly focused on U.S. imbalances and more inclined to look at interest-rate differentials," said David Gilmore, a partner at Foreign Exchange Analytics. "The Fed is pausing but perhaps not done. So it's not that clear reason to sell dollars yet."

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 12:05:29 PM

Hmmm ... quite a bit of call buying in at, near-money calls in BSC. Some "pain" could be inflicted on $135/$140 Put OI.

Spec long for the Sep $135 Calls?

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 12:02:46 PM

AMEX options resume trading however EQUITIES remain halted.

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 12:01:02 PM

Don't try shorting this unless it is a very quick scalp. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 11:58:59 AM

Contl. Airlines (CAL) $27.32 +7.01% Link ... after yesterday's cautious comments out of Morgan Stanley Link

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 11:58:00 AM

* NYSE VOLUME 693.2M
* NYSE HAS 2,248 ADVANCERS
* NYSE HAS 819 DECLINERS
* NYSE HAS 168 ISSUES UNCHANGED
* NYSE HAS 112 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK HIGHS
* NYSE HAS 32 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK LOWS
* NASDAQ VOLUME 763.3M
* NASDAQ HAS 1,923 GAINERS
* NASDAQ HAS 850 LOSERS
* NASDAQ HAS 179 ISSUES UNCHANGED
* NASDAQ HAS 60 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK HIGHS
* NASDAQ HAS 34 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK LOWS

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 11:55:47 AM

Vail Resorts (MTN) $39.62 +2.24% Link ... set to challenge spring's 52-week high. To to assess potential reward.

Keene Little : 9/12/2006 11:55:16 AM

A similar Fib projection for ES is at 1321.25 for the end of this leg up.

Keene Little : 9/12/2006 11:52:33 AM

One slight alternative to the count that I've got is a regular A-B-C up from Thursday afternoon. That would call for a consolidation for the rest of the day with a sideways/down pullback and then a final push higher to end this.

Keene Little : 9/12/2006 11:50:56 AM

Here's a closer look at the zig-zag count (A-B-C-X-A-B-C) for YM's bounce from last Thursday. With 11509 easily blown out of the water the next target was the 11551-11558 area from a Fib projection standpoint. Price is also pressing the top of its channel from yesterday's low. I like the setup again to try another short play here, stop at about 11570, maybe 11580. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 11:49:49 AM

Best Buy (BBY) $50.06 +4.79% Link ... stock was off earlier this morning, but things have reversed. BIG test at trend underway.

Reuters Earnings Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 11:48:21 AM

Good gravy! ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 11:47:53 AM

Circuit City (CC) $25.11 +6.48% Link ...

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 11:47:37 AM

VIX to new daily lows which is very good for my ES long.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 11:46:51 AM

Goldman Sachs (GS) $155.50 +2.98% Link ... stock has NOT been able to trade $158 since late spring. Gloves come off if it does in my opinion.

Reuters Earnings Story Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 11:30:34 AM

I think the rotation this week into November will keep a floor above 64.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 11:30:07 AM

Oil is now critical. 64.50 is must hold for buls, or they will see 64.10.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 11:27:08 AM

That's a very good point Tab. We need to preserve our crude for plastics. Everything we use in this world is plastics. In any case, Hydrogen infrastructure is 5 to 10 years away.

Tab Gilles : 9/12/2006 11:26:26 AM

With the news today of GM hydrogen car and how that is the next "new technology" for the auto industry...everyone is asking okay...where do you fuel up? What is the infrastructure?

Did some research and found one company that is involved with the infrastructure directly... Air Products and Chemicals (APD). Link

Look at the 12 years chart..up +1800% !!! Link Compare to Exxon/Mobil... Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 11:22:52 AM

NQ came close enough to closing the September gap. If short, stops shoul be at 1624.

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 11:20:06 AM

MACD is totally cooperating with the rally today. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 11:18:03 AM

YG is now above pivot. They are going for it.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 11:18:52 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Monday's Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 11:16:46 AM

In any case, 65 October or 65 November, we are very close. All this talk of 55 oil is just talk.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 11:17:32 AM

In truth, I think we should look at November crude and the 65 level, since it will be in play next week and I think that is the floor Opec will allow. Forget what they say in public. That would put this contract close to 64.

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 11:15:33 AM

I would short ZG at this zone if it should get back there and the MACD and RSI support the short.

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 11:14:26 AM

My take on Gold is a little different from Marc's. I think ZG could return to the 615-616.50 zone for a retest of support turned resistance and that it will fail. Of course a close above this area would put be back to neutral. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 11:15:02 AM

In fact, oil is putting on a show of support at 65. I still think there is risk to 64, but they might front-run it. If the US economy is so hot as equities think, then oil consumption will resume (and Opec might cut and hold 65). Furthermore, if core CPI shows +.3% from last month, Feds might raise rates and that my friends will be the end of days. But we are not there yet, everyone betting the farm on the goldilocks and they might be right. Just keep in mind that Friday is a BIG deal and traders know it. They will hedge.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 11:10:58 AM

Dec Gold has immediate support at 599.10. It could go up and test overnight highs. If it gets past 604, the correction could be over in the metal. I think we saw the lows until Friday.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 11:09:31 AM

VIX 12.49 -3.84% ... sure starting to "not like" the 14.00 measure.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 11:08:14 AM

NQ gap close is 1623.50, should cap this. Gold making a counter move to oil, based on inflation fears creeping in. This could mean an unfriendly CPI on Friday.

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 11:06:11 AM

Gold is not looking too healthy here.

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 11:05:46 AM

Oil down to 64.90!

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 11:05:14 AM

Yesterday I identified an ES long at 1303 but did not take it. I didn't want to make the same mistake today.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 11:05:29 AM

XBD.X +2.04% ... bold move early. Probes 200-day SMA here. (see last night's wrap) Link

Keene Little : 9/12/2006 11:04:43 AM

YM is about to hit its next Fib target at 11551 which is also at the top of a small parallel up-channel for price action since yesterday's low. Now we'll get to see if this is an ending move or just the middle of something larger to the upside.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 11:04:05 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 11:00:35 AM

TICKS +1000 darn it!

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 11:00:26 AM

I have a wide stop on my long, 2 ticks below daily lows. I will tighten it up later once I get a clear picture of swing highs and lows.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 11:00:51 AM

RUT.X Daily Interval bar chart shown in prior weeks... (per 10:50:27 AM) at this Link

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 10:52:48 AM

Oil sellers are strong again today. This market is so oversold but that does not seem to be making a difference.

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 10:51:22 AM

AD line is bullish +1168

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 10:50:59 AM

AMEX options and EQUITIES are unavailable for trading due to technical problems at the exchange.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 10:50:27 AM

RUT.X 713.77 +0.87% ... also testing its 38.2% retracement taken from 5/05/06 all-time high close of 781.83 to recent relative low close of 671.94 on 7/21/06.

Did see a close above 50% retracement (726.88) on 09/05/06.

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 10:50:11 AM

Natural GAs is taking off and I have moved my stop to breakeven.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 10:47:56 AM

RUT.X 713.70 +0.86% ... trades WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 10:46:03 AM

Microsoft (MSFT) $25.85 -0.23% Link ... continues to consolidate from post-Dutch Auction period. 21-day SMA just crosses above longer-term 200-day SMA today.

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 10:43:44 AM

I am going long ES here because the VIX is making new daily lows.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 10:42:02 AM

Applied Materials (AMAT) $17.08 +3.95% ... edges above late-August congestion high. WEEKLY R2 $17.25 just ahead, as is 200-day SMA at $17.58.

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 10:41:40 AM

* NYSE ADVANCERS OUTNUMBER DECLINERS 7 TO 3
* NASDAQ ADVANCERS OUTNUMBER DECLINERS 17 TO 9

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 10:38:54 AM

Remember! ... Financials are the heaviest weight industry among small caps too!

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 10:38:25 AM

IWM $0.25 box chart to resemble RUT.X 2.5-point at this Link ... Bulls would like to see some further "sling shot" activity like that recent X column in late August.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 10:36:31 AM

IWM Traditional $1 box chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 10:35:02 AM

Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 2.5-point box chart that Dorsey/Wright uses at this Link

Keene Little : 9/12/2006 10:33:48 AM

Depending on which low is used for the pullback this month, SPX is hitting its 62% retracement or about to at 1306 (cash).

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 10:32:17 AM

Dorsey/Wright's Quick Technical Supply/Demand Recap of yesterday's activity at this Link

Keene Little : 9/12/2006 10:32:16 AM

No rest for the bulls today (or at least those trying to jam this higher). Next Fib target for YM is at 11551 which is two equal legs up from yesterday's low.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 10:28:00 AM

iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) $71.05 +0.79% ... probes its WEEKLY Pivot. 200-day SMA just ahead at $71.27.

Good volume yesterday at 40.5 million. On a breach of 200-day SMA, I'd like to see something upward of 70 million at day's end.

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 10:24:42 AM

Here is your 240 minute look at ES. 1316 has indeed been resistance. Link

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 10:23:18 AM

Here is how the markets are trading in relation to their PDRs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 10:22:35 AM

EIA: Trims US Q3 Oil Demand, Revises Q4 Slightly Up ... See Full Year '06 Oil Demand Flat At 20.66M B/D Vs. '05.

Sees US Oil Consumption To Grow 2% in '07.

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 10:21:06 AM

Floor wide Halt on the AMEX - 2nd today.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 10:19:13 AM

EIA: OPEC-10 August Oil Output 27.72M B/D Vs. 27.45M B/D July

EIA: Saudi Arabia August Oil Output Flat Vs. July At 9.3M B/D

Tab Gilles : 9/12/2006 10:18:43 AM

Gold stocks were held down in the '80's and '90's because Japan had no inflation, but that is now changing. Is Japan's deflationary period may be ending? They've moved their rates up recently for first time in many years. A chart of the Nikkei and $XAU index shows the correlation is not perfect but, makes one wonder. So,if the Nikkei falls, will gold and silver stocks go down too? Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 10:16:41 AM

EIA Revises Q3 WTI Crude Down $2.48 to $72.82 Vs. Month Ago.

This looks "in line" with my 08/31/06 12:28:29 AM EDT forecast.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 10:13:37 AM

DJ- EIA Revises Down Global Oil Consumption Growth for '06, '07 ... Sees Oil Use Growth 1.2M B/D in 2006, 1.7M B/D 2007.

Keene Little : 9/12/2006 10:13:35 AM

And ES 1315.75 is a 50% retracement of it's decline from Sept 5th.

Keene Little : 9/12/2006 10:12:46 AM

After breaking down through the uptrend line from July through August lows, ES has now bounced back up to it at 1316. Perfect spot to try a short with a stop at 1318.

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 10:11:58 AM

ES's daily high so far is 1316 right at resistance. ES needs to break and close above 1316 before the bulls have control back.

Keene Little : 9/12/2006 10:10:09 AM

Note also that 11522 is a 62% retracement of the decline from Sept 5th.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 10:09:20 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Keene Little : 9/12/2006 10:08:41 AM

I'd use a stop no higher than about 11540 since resistance has to be found here otherwise something else is going on. With opex this week it's not uncommon to see over-throws and under-throws of Fib targets.

Keene Little : 9/12/2006 10:07:03 AM

Here's an update to the YM chart I showed yesterday with its parallel up-channel, what I'm calling a bear flag. I actually like the wave count better on this one than yesterday's simple A-B-C bounce (has to do with the wave count of the decline to give a cleaner 5-wave count). The Fibs line up nicely for resistance at 11518 and is again at the top of the channel. I'd say short it here. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/12/2006 10:04:40 AM

NQ should hit 1617.

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 10:02:42 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 9:59:20 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPY $130.63 : YM 11,503

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 9:57:47 AM

DJ- BP USA President: To Request OK For E. Prudhoe Bay Restart This Week

Jeff Bailey : 9/12/2006 9:47:45 AM

Applied Materials (AMAT) $16.93 +3.04% ... strong open after upgrade at Credit Suisse to "outperform" from "neutral."

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 9:39:53 AM

DAte line WSJ - H-P said CEO Mark Hurd will take over as chairman in January. Current Chairman Patricia Dunn will remain a director.

. Bristol-Myers Squibb said CEO Peter R. Dolan has resigned, effective immediately. The board named James M. Cornelius interim CEO.

Keene Little : 9/12/2006 9:39:49 AM

Retest of yesterday's high or will this keep going? Tough call right here. The choppy nature of price action continues. The overall look of the bounce from last week does not look bullish but that it could still press higher in its choppy climb. I don't like the idea of chasing this higher and will continue to look for opportunities to short this. Watch to see if we get negative divergences with a test of yesterday's high.

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 9:33:17 AM

VIX opens mid range to its PDR but TRIN below.

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 9:32:16 AM

Ad line is a neutral +481 and AD volume above 0.

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 9:21:16 AM

Take a look at how well the 50EMA is working as support for NQ. A close below this MA would be quite bearish for this market. Link

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 9:13:58 AM

Same story for YM but it needs to break 11545 to break its resistance. Link

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 9:11:15 AM

Here is the 240 minute chart of ES showing support and how the upward trendline from July 18th has been resistance. ES needs to break 1316 to break this resistance, which I think it will. Also notice the MACD - it needs to break above 0 before it turns back down again but if ES breaks 1316 I believe the MACD will get above 0. So far I am still bullish but getting more and more skeptical by the day. Link

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 9:03:57 AM

I am taking a long in Natural Gas with a stop at 5.50. Please make sure you know what your risk is ($/contract) before you trade this volatile market.

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 9:01:10 AM

Ok I am going to change my Natural Gas prediction from bearish to bullish. Looking at the daily chart I see a bullish wedge and a MACD divergence. You can also see a reverse H&S which I did not show on this chart because it would be too cluttered. Link

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 8:55:52 AM

TBonds didn't react to the budget data either so the market at this report as benign.

Natural Gas broke its PDH but made a double top and I think it is ready to resume its downtrend.

Gold recovered a bit overnight and you may want to consider selling into this rally.

Oil was quite weak again overnight with a break of its PDL. Link

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 8:50:13 AM

The equities markets made nary a blip with the trade deficit data. The overnight session was about a neutral as it could be. Link

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 8:46:53 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Higher prices for imported oil pushed the U.S. trade gap of goods and services to a new record in July, a government report showed Tuesday.

The nation's trade deficit widened by 5% in July to $68.0 billion, the Commerce Department said. The U.S. imported $20.8 billion worth of crude oil in July, the highest amount on record. The import average price per barrel of crude oil was a record $64.84 in the month.

The widening of the deficit was larger than expected. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists had been for the deficit to widen to $65.4 billion.

The worsening deficit will be a drag on economic growth in the third quarter.

Jane Fox : 9/12/2006 8:45:03 AM

Dateline WSJ - Goldman Sachs posts revenue of $7.5 billion, profit of $1.59 billion.

Keene Little : 9/12/2006 8:28:03 AM

Other than a price dip after Europe opened, and a partial recovery, futures were relatively quiet last night. Yesterday's high looked like a nice completion of an A-B-C bounce from last Thursday and if true we should get a down day today. But so far I don't like the looks of the pullback from yesterday's high. Therefore if short you should follow this down with a stop just above each succeeding lower high (for example just above YM 11490 and ES 1312.50).

But for YM that puts your stop below last night's spike up to 11500 so it makes it tricky this morning. Better to have it too tight than too loose here. We still have a market that seems to be magically lifted and there's bigger money out there to move the market than you or I have. Add in opexantics and anything goes. Stay cautious.

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