Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 9/16/2006 4:00:37 AM

Here's my table of the major market bullish % where for supply/demand accuracy, I prefer Dorsey/Wright's data (only because they don't adjust a stock's historical PRICE values when a stock pays a dividend).

Part I is from May 8 to July 13 Link

Part 2 is from July 14 to Sept. 15 Link

Remember that the BPDJIA or StockCharts' $BPINDU Link is just 30 stocks. Each stock's Point and Figure chart is worth 3.33% (3.33 x 30 = 99.99%). If a Dow component Point and Figure chart, say MO Link shows a "buy signal" still intact on its chart ($74), then that stock gets "1 vote" and is placed in the stack of charts that are on a buy signal. If another Dow component, say CAT Link shows a "sell signal" still intact on its chart ($73), then that stock gets "1 vote" and is placed in the stack of charts that are on a sell signal. Where does CAT have to trade in order to get back in the "buy signal" pile? Yes! $71. That's where an X would exceed a prior column of X.

Anyway, this VERY NARROW bullish %, which is not all that important relative to the other bullish % (Just 30 stocks. They're important stocks, but not the best depiction of the stock market as a whole).

Take 10-minutes this weekend and do this.

Pretend your a locamotive engineer, the driver of the train, and get behind the wheel. Then look over your shoulder, and about a half-mile back back you can see all the cars inbetween and the red caboose way at the end. Then take the brake off, and go for a ride in the HILLS.

On May 8, the BPNDX, or $BPNDX Link was already "bear confirmed" status at 52% and internals were weakening. NDX/QQQQ components' PnF charts were giving some "sell signals." I like to mark the inflection points in my table, and on 05/24/06 (column C ; row 847) is where an inflection low on Dorsey's BPNDX would have been charted to. Then a 3-box reversal was found on 06/02/06 (column C, row 853). Keep on driving! Do you see, feel, how the engine was really high reving, but just lugging itself? Remember, you went from 52 stocks on buy signals to just 28 in a matter of days! Eventually, on 6/23/06, Dorsey's BPNDX reaches an inflection high of 40% (colum C : row 868).

Then things flatten out on an internal basis and on 07/10/06, Dorsey's BPNDX reversed back down into a column of "O."

Woooo! Your stomach gets butterflies as you head back down. If you were a bull, you're holding the wheel tight, eyes wide open, for some they were shut, and hanging on for dear life.

Keep driving! Observe, and get the feel of the flow.

On 07/21/05 and 7/24/06 the BPNDX from Dorsey hits 24%. On 08/04/06 (column C : row 897) we get a 3-box reversal.

"Whew!" A bull that tried to buy that decline, or held on for that drop; they're head is swaying back and forth, eyes blinking, wondering what just hit them as they try and get their balance.

"Good gravy! Why did I ever agree to drive a train in the mountains!" proclaims the engineer.

But keep driving! Never give up!

Ooooo... what's this? Ten, fifteen days of some stability? 28%.. 33%... 34%... 36%... what's going on? "I'm picking up some steam!

Boom! On 09/12/06 Dorsey's BPNDX hits "bull confirmed", which for the $BPNDX Link that is that 42% on the chart, where X gets above a prior column of X.

Feel it? It's like getting pushed back into the seet and you start picking up speed. Suddenly, the bullish trader/investor is blinking their eyes, sitting up straight, blowing the horn and waiving to everyone! I made it!

Now do the same for the BPOEX Link , the BPSPX Link , the BPNYSE ($BPNYA Link ) and BPOTC ($BPCOMPQ Link )

Yes it seems "childish," and it has been said "these have no relevance to short-term trading."

Oh, but the "no relevance to short-term trading" is sooooo wrong. I can show you trade blotters of short-term traders that try and buy, buy, buy instead of sell, sell, sell when the locamotive is heading downhill. And once they don't "get the bottom" after trying for months, they try and prove they can get the top, or force the market/train back down to their level and end up selling, selling, selling as the locamotive continues to gather upward momentum.

I'd encourage you to at least "drive the train" with the BPNDX from time-to-time as it is more volatile. Then drive the BPOTC $BPCOMPQ or NYSE and get the feel for just how BIG the market is. How much longer it takes to get things moving, but once things start moving in unison (up, or down) how the momentum really starts to build.

Pull up a bar chart of the QQQQ, or NDX and drag your cursor from left to right across the chart and match dates with the bullish % table I've provided.

Jeff Bailey : 9/16/2006 2:31:27 AM

What do you think for next week?

Here are the two, maybe three "keys" I see.

I was reviewing the various bullish % readings for the major indices (BPNDX, BPOEX, BPSPX, BPNYSE and BPOTC) from Dorsey/Wright and the table that I keep for these measures of internal supply/demand. The BPNDX achieved "bull confirmed" on Tuesday, the BPSPX achieved "bull confirmed" on Wednesday, and the BPOEX achieved "bull confirmed" on Thursday. In addition, the very broad BPNYSE (BPNYA for StockCharts.com Link which would be "bull confirmed), which is Dorsey/Wright's main dictator of strength/weakness has been "bear correction" since June 30th, when it reversed up to a 50% reading. The also very broad OTC Bullish % from Dorsey/Wright and StockCharts.com's $BPCOMPQ Link just reversed up on Wednesday to "bear correction."

Now, I start to snoop around.

One thing I did was read my 05/08/06 Market Wrap Link and my jaw dropped when I saw this chart of the OEX that I posted that evening (look at it ... where did the OEX go to, and where is it TONIGHT? Link

"I told you" it was going to 611. Didn't I?.

Read that Market Wrap, then read this. I think we HAVE TO if we want to understand "what went wrong" from there.

Don't you love it? I told you the OEX would trade 611 that night, and it did today, nearly 4 1/2 months later.

What I didn't know, or didn't tell you about was how the market would react to the key #1 DELL news, and key #2 ... well, Marc will vouch for me on this .... INTC, which was looking very good on 05/08/06 just before the close at 03:28:08 PM EDT Link

That's it isn't it? INTC above $20 for strength. I, or perhaps you understand INTC $20 resistance. It was looking GREAT, then it went to $17, and now it's back to $20.

The OEX was looking GREAT and destined for 611.

The 3rd key you ask? I hold that in my pocket, in my account, and you in the currently OPEN MM Profiles.

Where do people sometimes leave the key to the front door of their house?

Yes!

Under A MAT Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 10:32:18 PM

After the bell

QQQQ ... NASDAQ-100 Index Tracking Stock Declares 2.34c Dividend

Imclone Systems (IMCL) $30.77 +2.36% ... Icahn ups stake ... Reuters Story Link

E Coli Outbreak Spreads to 20 States; 94 People (update)

Freescale (FSL) $37.16 -1.09% ... Agrees to be bought for $17.6 billion, or $40 in cash. Reuters Story Link

OI Technical Staff : 9/15/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 9:44:14 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

I liked Tab Gilles' profile/watch list design that I've implemented it myself.

Today's Activity

Canceled the order to buy the Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) calls (see 10:26:09 AM EDT)

Swing trade shorted 1/2 position in the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) at the bid of $104.77 (stop= $121 : target= $90)

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 9:33:08 PM

Trade Blotter of CLOSED and Current OPEN Positions with stops and targets at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 8:13:30 PM

Initiating coverage of Children's Place (PLCE) $58.04 +0.34% Link ... "accumulate/bullish bias"

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 7:58:41 PM

Initiating coverage of Couer D Alene (CDE) $4.56 -0.43% Link ... "hold/neutral"

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 7:04:55 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

June Quarterly Expiration at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 6:55:52 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 6:15:32 PM

You and I both Jimmy C!

James Cramer turning bullish the homebuilders. Traders that have been with us for a couple of months know I've been more bullish the group and RYL 07/28/06 MM Profiles.

That reminds me ... I may be out of the office on Thursday as I have to attend a closing on a recent home purchase.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 5:50:57 PM

Oh My! The ICE-man calleth ICE $74.35 +15.03% Link

Can't keep up on it all.

If any long-term traders still holding from 08/02/06 (closed here on 08/16/06 for +5.29%), stock has achieved its bullish vertical count.

Maybe sell your underlying, look for options. REDUCE capital at risk with VIX.X and volatility much lower now, can move to calls.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 5:28:52 PM

DJ- US Commodities: Platinum, Palladium Tumble

Precious metals continued their recent slide in New York Friday, with the sharpest losses coming in platinum and palladium following overnight weakness in Tokyo.

October platinum settled down $15.80 to $1,163.70 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange Friday, while December palladium settled down $12.40 to $314.80.

Platinum traded down as far as $1,141.20. This was its weakest level since June 15 and represented a loss of $146.70, or 11.4%, from last week's high of $1,287.90.

December palladium bottomed right at $300, its lowest level since June 19. At its low, December palladium had fallen $63, or 17.4%, from last week's high of $363.

"This weakness emanated overnight from Japan, where we've had some worries about demand because of the relatively high price, and in China," said Jim Steel, senior vice president and metals analyst with HSBC.

"It's in line overall with what's been happening," said Carlos Sanchez, metals analyst with CPM Group. "Gold and silver have also declined. It's taken along platinum and palladium as well."

"Right now, there certainly is a fair amount of technical selling going on with the break below $1,200 (earlier this week) in the October (platinum) futures," said Steel.

Sanchez also commented that technical selling has occurred below $1,200 in platinum this week, as well as $1,180. Furthermore, he added, this has occurred in illiquid markets.

December gold settled down $3 to $583 a troy ounce, while December silver settled down 7.5 cents to $10.875.

London afternoon gold traded at $573.60 versus $584.40 Thursday.

U.S. spot gold at 1:38 p.m. EDT traded at $578.20 an ounce, up $2.85.

The most active December copper contract settled down 6.30 cents at $3.3115 a pound.

The front-month October light, sweet crude contract settled up 11 cents at $63.33 a barrel. During the session it fell to $62.03, the lowest for the front-month contract since March 23.

Front month unleaded gasoline settled up 2.28 cents to $1.5750 a gallon. October heating oil settled down 0.87 cent to $1.7023 gallon.

October natural gas settled down 9.0 cents at $4.982 a million British thermal units.

On the New York Board of Trade, December coffee ended 1.30 cents lower at $1.0210 a pound.

December cocoa settled $15 lower at $1,473 a metric ton.

Futures on raw sugar in foreign ports for October contract settled up 0.28 cent at 12.44 cents a pound and March gained 0.23 cent to 13.28 cents.

On the Chicago Board of Trade, December corn rose 4 1/2 cents to $2.41 3/4 cents a bushel. November soybeans finished 4 1/2 cents higher at $5.49 3/4 a bushel. December wheat ended 2 cents higher at $3.92 1/2 a bushel.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 5:18:59 PM

S&P Price/Earnings Ratio At 16.86

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 5:15:47 PM

CNBC ... Peak Oil A Myth

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 5:15:41 PM

Very nice! ... start with your 0% at the 06/13/06 low close, then how about a 38.2% fit to start at the 08/18/06 close of 1,302.30.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 5:15:32 PM

Better get started on a "bull fit 38.2%" (inverse of the bear fit technique) just in case the SPX breaks to new highs and follows the OEX.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 4:50:08 PM

SPX Link to go with Marc's 04:13:06 post.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 4:34:03 PM

Don't Eat That Spinach

CST Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 4:26:02 PM

That was then .... Link

This is now ... Link

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 4:25:09 PM

Everyone have a great weekend.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 4:21:45 PM

With the VIX this low, the market will have zero tolerance for any bad news, including a spike in oil. And good news? A lot is priced in on this 2 month rally already, unless they think the Feds will lower, but I doubt that. I will leave you with this parting chart of ES: Link

Jim Brown : 9/15/2006 4:17:31 PM

Marc, I am on your side. We bought the dip in the LEAP Trader newsletter and we are looking for $60 oil to buy some more. If it goes up from here we are already loaded. If not then we will grab some more at $60.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 4:17:08 PM

Hopefully subscriber don't consider Monday's Market Wrap as contrarian to what actually happened this week and what was "key"

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 4:16:35 PM

ES closed right at yesterday highs and I am holding over the short. Oil will start trading earlier anyway and that could give us another point at open Sunday. If not, than it will be a quick exit at no loss. Worth a try, also a lot of things can happen this weekend with Iran.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 4:14:46 PM

Buy Program Premium ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 4:13:45 PM

XBD +7.39% for the week and #2 gainer in the U.S. Market Watch for the week.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 4:13:06 PM

Right on that, Jim. It will be very interesting to see how the dip is bought. It's the next big swing set up everyone is looking for and when it goes, it will go. Let's not forget the 65/75 range opec likes and T boone predicts. And that could very well be how November contract trades next week, at 65. It's already at 64.125. A lot of money is dying to get back in. We might never see these prices again if all this talk about a strong economy continues. It's actually not a bad idea to start cost averaging some contracts in.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 4:06:48 PM

I only listen to the press for contrarian use.

Jim Brown : 9/15/2006 4:04:57 PM

Marc, I agree with your chart but the rebound was due to outside influences. (expiration) Let's see what next week brings.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 4:04:10 PM

I will see the pivot set up for the week and where support will need to hold for QM.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 4:03:16 PM

You will never get a better reversal looking chart than this. Ok, maybe a little more RSI divergence, but it is so buried in oversold, in makes no diference: Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 4:01:33 PM

CNBC ... Markets finish with best week in a month!

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 4:00:40 PM

Tht DOW failure at 11600 will get noticed over the weekend as will the QM hammer. I mean look at that QM/CL candle, a thing of beauty. I sure wish I had bought some at 62, but I plan on buying dips in QM November as of next week. I

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 3:54:12 PM

Wyeth (WYE) $50.11 +0.26% ... PnF chart from Dorsey/Wright at this Link

Jim Brown : 9/15/2006 3:51:06 PM

Yes, Marc but the options on the "CL" contract expire today.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 3:45:36 PM

I was going to warn WYE traders that today's "triple top buy signal" from StockCharts.com's PnF chart might be a "bull trap" with sector still "bear confirmed."

On closer review, traders and investors will understand the "artificial" supply/demand chart from StockCharts.com as they have adjusted prices historically for the company's payment of dividends.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 3:45:14 PM

Jim, the QM October futures contract expires Wednesday, but you're right, you can see the sfift between Oct and NOv.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 3:43:21 PM

You could be right Jim. We will see Monday how everyone behaves, especially gold. ECB is done selling on the 26th, so there is always those guys, but I think they are close to done.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 3:41:16 PM

Looking at November contract and the 64 level.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 3:41:02 PM

WYE alert ... StockCharts.com's PnF chart is deemed incorrect by pure supply/demand traders.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 3:40:01 PM

Nothing positive to say about NASDAQ ADDEC line today.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 3:38:54 PM

Drug Bullish % (BPDRUG) Link

Jim Brown : 9/15/2006 3:37:51 PM

Marc, remember that October oil options expire today and that was probably a big factor in the rebound. oil supplies are +8% above normal and we are in a slow demand portion of the calendar. I am still expecting $60 to be tested.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 3:37:23 PM

Partial +1.25 here, lowering stop on remaining.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 3:36:58 PM

If ES loses 1332, the short is a hold over.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 3:35:33 PM

It is very tempting to hold over the weekend because I think oil will keep bidding Sunday night. The bottom looks in at 62. Solid.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 3:34:19 PM

Got back in short at 1333.25, stop 1335.25. Since I bagged +4.75 earlier, it is acceptable risk.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 3:33:55 PM

US Jury Rules Against Woman In Wyeth Prempro Cancer Suit

WYE $50.26 +0.56% Link

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 3:32:59 PM

McMillan's Weekly commentary - The technical indicators remain positive, although some are now reaching overbought status. So, a short-term correction is probably due, but as long as technical support holds, it should not harm the intermediate-term uptrend.

Last week's correction lasted a mere two days, with $SPX testing support at the 1290 level a couple of imes. Once it was clear that $SPX was not going to violate that support level, the market took off again to the upside -- and has been rising rather steadily ever since.

This week's rise may be aided by expiration-related activity. There is definitely a bullish bias to September expiration, since there is a preponderance of in-the-money calls as compared to in-the-money puts. In fact, if $OEX is above 610 on Friday's close, substantial buy programs could result (it rose as high as 609 on Wednesday). In fact, as long as $OEX is above 605, there should be a somewhat bullish bias to this expiration, which is a major quarterly expiration.

The equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. Surprisingly, they are still rather high on their charts, although they have finally started to trend downward more strongly recently. These will remain on buy signals as long as they are declining. Since these are intermediate-term indicators, we think that the market eventually has more room to run on the upside (as long as $SPX 1290 holds). So $SPX and put-call ratios are intermediate term bullish.

Market breadth has been quite strong. As you might expect, this much positive breadth is a two-edged sword. On one hand, it's constructive that the advance is broad, but on the other, the market is overbought. It is the latter fact that is one of the short-term cautions that we see for this market.

The volatility indices are very overbought. In our last newsletter, we cautioned that with $VIX this low, the market could be vulnerable. Now $VIX is even lower. An actual sell signal from $VIX wouldn't occur until it established something of an uptrend -- more than the 2-day rise in early September. So, as long as $VIX remains low, the market can rally, but in an overbought state.

In summary then, we have $VIX and breadth as overbought indicators -- warning of perhaps a short-term problem -- but the intermediate term indicators are bullish. If and when a correction develops, we would view it as a buying opportunity unless $SPX fell below 1290. In that case, a bearish attitude would have to be taken.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 3:29:51 PM

Today's quote of the day ... Show me a trader that has never lost money sitting on the sidelines and I'll show you a trader that has never made any either- Anonymous

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 3:20:40 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jim Brown : 9/15/2006 3:20:12 PM

For a quad witching day with a S&P 400-500-600 rebalance at the close this has been a very quiet afternoon.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 3:18:37 PM

You see? Just worked for .50. Anyway, I'll get into it deeper some other time. Right now, I feel a little proprietary on it.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 3:16:26 PM

Everybody starts doing that it won't work and I will have to find another trick, so off it goes.

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 3:08:25 PM

A lot of spikes in the VIX these last few days.

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 3:07:54 PM

That spike I just witnessed in the VIX was indeed to be ignored. Hate it when that happens.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 3:07:18 PM

"bad tick" in XOM $64.97 +0.40% ... to $60.00.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 3:04:49 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 3:00:04 PM

MSFT $26.92 +2.24% ...

AMAT $17.28 (unch)

SLV $107.70 +0.60%

OSTK $20.01 -1.33%

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 2:57:57 PM

IWM $72.58 ... $72.50 close?

Jim Brown : 9/15/2006 2:55:30 PM

I went short the Russell futures at 736 when the bounce faded. I am looking for a dip into the close.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 2:55:23 PM

UTX announcement analysis ... Views its own stock having greater "value" than that of possible acquisition targets, perhaps peers.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 2:54:23 PM

United Tech (UTX) Ups Its Own Share Repurchase Guidance To $2B

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 2:54:01 PM

The DOW backed off at 11595. Maybe they won;t get that 11600 close, but we still have an hour to go.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 2:53:18 PM

And this is key ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 2:52:59 PM

United Tech (UTX) Sees $1B Spending For '06 Acquisitions vs. prior $2B

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 2:52:40 PM

If i'm proved wrong, so be it. At least I won't lose precious capital chasing right here along with the herd.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 2:51:29 PM

United Tech Backs '06 EPS View $3.55-$3.65

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 2:51:05 PM

And as Jim said, the VIX is in lala land.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 2:50:39 PM

Until they prove to me that ascending bearish wedgess on the daily, bearish RSI/MACD divergences and non-particitpaton of key sector at top (semis), I will stay very defensive here.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 2:49:25 PM

I haven't seen such a bearish set up in a long time.

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 2:44:36 PM

Right after the TICK hit +1000 again I see the VIX spiking. This of course is OPEX Friday so that may not mean anything.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 2:44:08 PM

Institutions are driving the softwares today. Inflict more pain on the retail NQ shorts.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 2:35:27 PM

They want to close the DOW at 11600 for the headlines, get a few more retails in on Monday.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 2:26:45 PM

ES still in the ascending wedge and so is SMH. If oil holds 63 as I think it will, it will be the excuse to book profits on Monday.

Jim Brown : 9/15/2006 2:19:33 PM

VXO at 10.71. Definitely no fear. The herd is in full rally mode. Fed three days away. Indexes near 5yr highs and no Sep/Oct dip in sight. Definitely a bearish setup for contrarians.

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 2:12:52 PM

TICKS +1000 and may be a good day for a fade. YM at 11682.

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 1:57:51 PM

I have learned a technique that confirms a bullish bounce from an overnsold RSI. Draw a trend line on the price bars that connects as many of the highs as possible and when price closes above this trendline you have a confirmation of an oversold bounce. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 1:55:20 PM

Got my first e-mail ever from DELL pushing AMD dimensions. No wonder INTC is not doing well today.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 1:52:15 PM

Metals feel/look similar Jim (01:13:28) ...

Keene Little : 9/15/2006 1:46:08 PM

I've got to run but before I do, ES just made it up to the level where it has two equal legs up from today's low. If we've got lower lows coming, as I think we do, this should tip back over now. But of course this is still opex and we could see a final squeeze play. Have a great weekend and I'll be back on Monday.

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 1:45:57 PM

Marc that tail on the daily QM in a very this oversold environment is a powerful sign.

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 1:43:05 PM

Well the trading Gods have smiled upon me and my long is well into profit now.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 1:38:29 PM

But s I said, I need to see 63 hold at the close. Looking good so far.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 1:37:54 PM

This chart is not as big and easier to put up. NOte the slightly up RSI and down price. Bullish: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 1:36:16 PM

Jane, I do have a bullish RSI divergence on the dialy at lows and if this candle holds like this, it will be the biggest tail this year. I think it's in: Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 1:35:18 PM

01:15 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 1:32:32 PM

QM October ceases trading on the 20th of September. There is rotation every day into the November contract so start putting it up.

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 1:32:11 PM

I also see no indication from the MACD nor the RSI that a low has been made in Gold either. Like I said doesn't mean it hasn't but the sure fire sign (for me) is that powerful MACD divergence confirmed by the RSI.

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 1:30:30 PM

As far as Oil is concerned I see no indication in the MACD nor the RSI that tells me we have a bottom. Doesn't mean we don't but I like to see evidence first. Then on the other hand an oversold bounce is way overdue IMHO. What I would like to see is QM bounce then make a new yearly low ($60.00 perhaps) but the MACD make a higher low. That is what happened in June and July in the equity indexes and look at what they have done since.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 1:27:12 PM

ES has direct resistance at yesterday highs. I am very tempted to re-enter short especially if QM keeps the bid.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 1:26:24 PM

Of course, YG needs to hold 577.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 1:30:20 PM

Jane, because of the confirmation bounce with gold at 50% July projection low of 577, even though the dollar is rising. Gold has a 70% correlation to oil. I know it is a little prmature to make that call, but I have been lining this up on my charts for days. If QM closes at or above 63, I think it's in for now.

Keene Little : 9/15/2006 1:25:29 PM

And just to add my two cents on oil, I have a Fib projection to $59.65 so Jim may get his wish for $60 oil. As I had mentioned in last night's Wrap, oil should give us a couple of small consolidations and stair-step a little lower so that $60 area looks real good for some better support. How much of a bounce we get from there is the big question in my mind. I don't see another run higher and in fact think the 200-dma will curl over and keep pressing oil lower.

Keene Little : 9/15/2006 1:22:27 PM

Jim, just caught your note. I'm thinking that too many are expecting the Sept/Oct swoon and a double-top failure. That sets us up for an upside surprise. Since the pattern would look best to me with a pullback and then another push higher, above the May high, that should hit a bunch of stops and suck in the remaining bulls who have been waiting for a larger pullback that's not coming. Then we should be set up for a nasty fall so probably a Q4 correction rather than Q3. At least that's the way it looks to be setting up to me.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 1:18:47 PM

01:15 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 9/15/2006 1:18:42 PM

ES got the bounce off the gap close and is also where the uptrend line from the 11th through yesterday's low is located. A break to a new daily low would confirm that a high is in and we'll see a multiday pullback. That would mean a hangover next week after this week's opex push. See August for details.

Jim Brown : 9/15/2006 1:13:28 PM

Oil +1.45 off its lows on what I believe is short covering ahead of expiration on the current October contract. Anybody who rode this drop from $75 is going to be taking profits and there could be a lot of exits.

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 1:11:52 PM

Oil hit a low of 62.025. I have been trying to time a long in Oil for days now but have not caught the bottom.

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 1:10:47 PM

Why do you say that Marc?

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 1:10:25 PM

It is going to be a key reversal day for oil and gold.

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 1:10:09 PM

VIX is still hugging daily highs but not making new daily highs as ES makes new daily lows. My ES long is still holding on but I am a lot less sure of this trade than I was before. In any case I will stay in the trade because I had a good entry.

Jim Brown : 9/15/2006 1:09:28 PM

The S&P rebalance should also provide some volatility later this aftenoon. Could be a tough trading day for futures traders. The easy money may already have been made.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 1:08:27 PM

Gotta go, watch ES 1332 resistance and NQ 1650. Key support is NQ 1643.75. Bulls want a QQQQ close above 40.08 at all costs.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 1:07:29 PM

Watch NQ 1649 R now. Bulls are not out of the woods, But as Jim said, it's quad witching and be happy to make a buck.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 1:05:04 PM

But I want get back in at 1332, if it stays below

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 1:04:05 PM

I closed the trade at 1330, +4.75. I think NQ will bounce.

Jim Brown : 9/15/2006 1:00:46 PM

Don't forget it is a quad witching Friday and with the Fed next week this would be a good spot to take those profits.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 1:00:42 PM

NQ gap close is at 1644.75 and that could be all she wrote for the downside today if it gets there and holds.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 12:59:16 PM

I regard this action as simple profit taking for now.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 12:57:19 PM

But if ES breaks down at the wedge support (1320), it's over for now.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 12:55:52 PM

But I don't hope so for the markets in general and the public. I always hate to see sell-offs. But keep in mind that the Feds are coming and it is not certain that we fall apart. In fact, as long as ES holds 1320, I would not get too greedy on the short side.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 12:54:28 PM

I sure hope so, Jim, since I'm short at 1334.75.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 12:58:27 PM

Watch gold to confirm the oil move. I had a strong suppot set up at YG 577 (Dec), which is 50% projection July and the bounce off that confirms so far the bounce of QM at 62.

Jim Brown : 9/15/2006 12:51:16 PM

Keene, given the bearish rising wedge, the double top at 1325 and the calendar, do you think we could see a normal Q3 correction beginning to form?

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 12:47:55 PM

QQQQ 200 dma. Should be worth a bounce.

Jim Brown : 9/15/2006 12:46:09 PM

Marc, I you may be right but I would not mind a dip to $60 to clear out the rest of the weak holders.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 12:43:21 PM

I'm calling the bottom in oil today at 62.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 12:42:44 PM

Key reversal day for oil coming.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 12:40:56 PM

Oil could have put in a short term bottom at 62. This is also weighing on the markets. They know they can bid it up. Remember that everyone fully expects Opec to defend 60 and many traders will decide 62 is close enough, especialy if we get back to 70 by year end.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 12:37:47 PM

Forex Global Currencies Link

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 12:38:35 PM

For all you futures traders out there check this out. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 12:36:09 PM

10-year ($TNX.X) down 0.8 bp at 4.785% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 12:32:25 PM

iShares Silver (AMEX:SLV) $107.22 +0.20% ... bids green.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 12:35:40 PM

Everyone that bought QQQQ at 40.50 on Janaury 3rd is now wondering after the nightmare of May if his is not their last chance to get out at even. This is why we are stalling a little. Nothing dramatic and shorts should not dream here, it is a normal occurence. The question will be can we hold 200 dma at 40.08. I think we will for now.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 12:29:53 PM

Sure glad I dumped my INTC long and decided to wait for a pullback. Felt stupid for a while, but the resistance at 20 looked formidable. I want back in that stock, so I will see what happens.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 12:25:19 PM

NDX/QQQQ still in the red for 2006, contrary to SPX, DOW, and COMP. That should change soon, obviously, But keep an eye on NDX 1645 and QQQQ 40.40. YOu never know what Mr Market has decided to do with your money.

Keene Little : 9/15/2006 12:24:27 PM

I've got the correct chart this time--getting in a little closer to the SPX chart I showed earlier (11:25), this is how I'd like to see the pattern finish--a move lower and then one final push to a new high to test the May high. It could take longer than I've shown (and go into October) and push up closer to an upside target near 1345. Link

Since this is an ascending wedge we should see a 3-wave move up from the September low and not a 5-wave move as it appears to be now. That suggests to me that the leg up from Sept 11th is only wave-a of an a-b-c needed to finish this off. But regardless, we're now due a pullback and then we'll see how it develops.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 12:23:44 PM

I expect a pulback to 5 dma at 1325.25 if 1332 stays as R into Monday. Below that, 10 dma at 1321 is probably as low as we go into the Feds,

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 12:21:23 PM

Bulls need ES to get back above 1332 and stay there. There is lots of profits from the July lows to be booked and I can assure you many hedge funds need the money.

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 12:20:24 PM

The next time I see the MACD moving downward and price sideways and I read it as bullish (or vice versa) I will post the chart.

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 12:17:49 PM

Well, I am a little confused about the MacD. You used to have a different take on bearish divergences, say than Mark, i.e. MacD going lower while price going higher indicated strength (or so I thought). Have you changed your mind, or (more likely) I misunderstood.

Lynne this is where the science becomes the art unfortunately. There are times when it looks like the MACD is making a bearish divergence say because it is falling but price is moving sideways - that is bullish. If the price is making clear new highs but the MACD is not - like the daily charts on the major indexes are doing now that is bearish. I can spot these differences easily but I can sure see where it would be confusing.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 12:14:03 PM

Fed's Hoenig: August CPI Data 'Good News' For Economy

Tab Gilles : 9/15/2006 12:13:22 PM

Open Positions: Link

Watch List: Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 12:13:12 PM

Fed's Hoenig: Economy Slowing Toward Under Trend Growth

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 12:11:40 PM

That is an ES buy scalp.

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 12:10:44 PM

I think an ES scalp here would work with a stop 2 ticks below daily lows.

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 12:09:30 PM

VIX is hugging daily highs (VIX is behaving today) but not to a new daily high suggesting the lows are in for now.

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 12:08:39 PM

ES tags its PDH and that should provide support.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 12:04:17 PM

Daytraders should book +5 (ES) now at gap close. Easy money.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 12:02:03 PM

ES is now below yesterday highs. Stops can be lowered to 1333.75, lock in +1 and go have lunch.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 12:00:20 PM

INTC carries weight in SPX. Now down .60%.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 11:59:07 AM

ES 10 mn and gap. As you can see, 1332 is a big deal. 61.8% of gap and yesterday high: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 11:56:54 AM

Pin job at SPY 132. Shorts have covered, new buyers are not that interested, so opex rules. It could stay like this until the close.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 11:47:49 AM

RLX and retailers red, seeing some profit taking starting there.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 11:45:49 AM

E*Trade Financial (ET) $24.15 +0.83% ... unconventional $0.50 box-sized chart at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 11:43:36 AM

Yesterday ES high is now resistance. TRAN has turned red. It can go either way at this point, although we are due for an ES bounce any second.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 11:42:28 AM

Initiating coverage of E*Trade Financial (ET) $24.18 +0.96% Link ... "Hold"

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 11:38:34 AM

Microsoft (MSFT) $26.87 +2.05% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 11:38:08 AM

Applied Materials (AMAT) $17.46 +1.04% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 11:33:52 AM

INTC and AAPL negative.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 11:31:34 AM

Stop is lowered to 1334.75, even. Let it ride if you are still in. Again, daytraders should close the trade at 1330, gap close. But you can also lower stops to above yesterday's highs if that happens. Take your pick.

Keene Little : 9/15/2006 11:25:37 AM

I'm back. We have a very interesting, and bearish, setup this morning. As shown in this SPX 240-min chart (to show price action since the May high), we have a very nice A-B-C bounce from the June low with a nice ascending wedge for wave-C. Wave-C hit the level where it was 162% of wave-A at 1323.38. The May high was 1326.70. The high today so far is 1324.65. We got a little throw-over above the wedge and now it's pulling back. Link

This is a very nice EW pattern for a corrective bounce and is worth shorting it here for a longer term play. The only thing that would make it better is a clearer 3-wave move up from the September low. That's why I'm thinking we might see a pullback and then a final push to new highs. It would be the move that convinces nearly everyone that we're headed much higher into the end of the year. If we get that kind of move I'd be backing up two trucks and loading up on put options. In the meantime, in case we don't get that down-up sequence, this is the place to try a short play--December put options could work very nicely.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 11:22:01 AM

Well what do yo know. Trade is +4 now (ES). Conservative traders should book profits, gap close is 1329.50. Stop is lowered to even at 1334.75 for those who think this is a swing going into the Feds and want to give it a try.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 11:20:39 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 11:20:10 AM

NASDAQ ADVDEC line negative.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 11:19:58 AM

NQ at 61.8% gap.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 11:14:31 AM

Make that 1335.25 again. Pre-lunch noise.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 11:13:19 AM

Stop is lowered to 1334.75, even.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 11:12:45 AM

As long as I see many more bids than asks on the book, I will stay short.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 11:10:58 AM

You cannot trade a day like this without looking at the book (when you take a counter-trend play, you must look at what the market makers are doing, not what the buyers are doing) In any case, stop is lowered to 1335.25, risking only .50 on remaining.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 11:12:11 AM

The market makers are selling more bids. Do they know something? In any case, the short is alive. Wow, double bids now.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 11:07:04 AM

Watching the book and there is danger for shorts as it rotates. We will see if it is a fake set up again or a real bounce coming.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 11:02:41 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 11:01:55 AM

Make that a stop at 1335.50. I want to give it some room, but at his point, a .75 risk is all I can handle. Take +.75 partial now to cover that risk and let the rest ride free.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 11:00:20 AM

ES wedge: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 10:59:06 AM

Looks like they don;t really want to pay all those 40 calls after all. At least not at highs.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 10:57:48 AM

Scalp a point and re-eneter on a bump.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 10:56:59 AM

I also looked at the book and saw massive buy orders being faked out. This is typical manipulation of the order flow. We will see if it pans out. Stop is lowered to 1335.25, risking only .50 now.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 10:53:47 AM

But this is very counter-trend and only for aggressive traders, please.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 10:53:20 AM

Ford Motor (F) $7.95 -12.65% ... atop this morning's most actives after announcing further restructuring plans.

Reuters Story Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 10:53:04 AM

The DOW also marked a clear failure at 11600.

Tab Gilles : 9/15/2006 10:52:58 AM

Commodity - Follow up to post made 8/17 2:19 PM

Geopolitical concerns, especially with Iran never really escalated. I mentioned if that occuredgold would go lower. $580 was my target. It now looks likely that June low of $540 is iin play. Link

As for the $XAU that is testing the lower end of a trading range. Link

$Silver is testing it's 200-ma too. Link

$WTIC late last night Jim Brown, Marc and I discussed the XLE. We brought up how oil is likely to test $60 a bbl before a bounce.

Currently oil is plunging @ $62.35. Link

XLE Targeting $50/$51 as an entry point in coming days or weeks. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 10:52:08 AM

I took a short at ES 1334.75 as it can't seem to break out of the wedge. Stop is tight at 1335.75. This is a scalp play for now and stop will be lowered to even very soon.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 10:35:12 AM

I guess that is pretty clear now, no? NDX 1645 and QQQQ 40.40. It pays to keep those alarms from beginning of year.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 10:33:05 AM

Thsi could be dropped like a hot tamale if no one joins the party at highs.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 10:32:18 AM

Until SMH closes a 30 mn candle above 35, I would not chase this.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 10:31:31 AM

No one dares short this, but no one is really buying. This is starting to look like a short covering rally.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 10:30:02 AM

Watch DOW 11600.

Tab Gilles : 9/15/2006 10:29:13 AM

Citrix Systems (CTXS)$35.89

Followup to 9/8 12:42PM post... Link Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 10:28:55 AM

DOW theorists are looking at the TRAN and 4466 level. It is a must conquer for bulls in the coming days as is SMH 35.38.

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 10:27:20 AM

These are very bullish. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 10:28:08 AM

Semi conductors and energy are now, with the TRAN, the only big guns still belwo their 200 dma's. In fact the TRAN is finding precise resistance there today.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 10:26:09 AM

Bullish swing trade cancel CALL option order alert ... Please cance my BULLISH order to buy the Broker Dealer Index (XBD.X) 226.02 +1.13% calls.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 10:25:05 AM

Sure feels heavy.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 10:25:31 AM

SMH back below 35 and barely at the wedge.

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 10:24:11 AM

I guess the Oil bears don't care that this market is getting way overdone they just keep selling. New daily lows again or should I say new yearly lows - again.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 10:23:54 AM

QQQQ and NDX both stall at 2005 close. QQQQ 40.40 and NDX 1645. Which means, they are not yet in the green for the year.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 10:21:41 AM

All the markets except ES have cleanly broken out of the bearish ascending wedges. I must confess, I don't recall ever seeing that when accompanied with bearish divergences.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 10:19:27 AM

Adobe Systems (ADBE) Earnings Story Link

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 10:19:17 AM

Everything is in the bull's corner today and is shaping up to be "Get long and stay long" type of day.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 10:18:19 AM

NDX at 2005 close 1645. Above that, we are back in the green for the year.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 10:17:27 AM

Yep, here it goes.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 10:16:54 AM

SMH 35 again. This time, they could drive it up to 35.38.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 10:15:36 AM

Ohhhh Myyyy ! .... Adobe Systems (ADBE) $37.80 +12.27% Link ...

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 10:14:58 AM

SMG backs off at June highs again. Just can't get above 35. We have been seeing the divergences for days now, will they finally take hold and prove that technical anaylsis still works???

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 10:12:56 AM

Off we go, 50% gap was all they gave.

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 10:12:09 AM

Jeff if trading the Forex that calendar is a must to watch. (10:09 post)

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 10:12:11 AM

If SMH closes above 34.95, it will set up 35.38, 200 dma. Yes, it is still far from it, as opposed to everyone else.

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 10:11:09 AM

* OCT. CRUDE FALLS 32 CENTS TO $62.90/BRL IN EARLY DEALINGS
* OCT. CRUDE TAPS LOW OF $62.80, ITS LOWEST LEVEL THIS YEAR
* OCT. NATURAL GAS DOWN 6.2 CENTS AT $4.83/MLN BTUS

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 10:10:37 AM

SMH at June highs.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 10:09:45 AM

Forex Economic Calendar at this Link

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 10:05:09 AM

* NYSE VOLUME 508M
* NYSE HAS 1,900 ADVANCERS
* NYSE HAS 805 DECLINERS
* NYSE HAS 178 ISSUES UNCHANGED
* NYSE HAS 98 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK HIGHS
* NYSE HAS 15 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK LOWS
* NASDAQ VOLUME 700.7M
* NASDAQ HAS 1,419 GAINERS
* NASDAQ HAS 992 LOSERS
* NASDAQ HAS 163 ISSUES UNCHANGED
* NASDAQ HAS 59 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK HIGHS
* NASDAQ HAS 22 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK LOWS

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 10:04:17 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 10:02:57 AM

EUR/USD futures right at 200 ema, where the euro held in July. Watch that dollar!

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 9:59:19 AM

CRB Index (cr00y) 306.68 -0.33% ... That's a 52-weeker.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 9:57:47 AM

YG was indeed a buy at 577. Stops should be placed at 576.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 9:57:01 AM

YI December Silver 10.67 -2.55% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 9:56:50 AM

YG December Gold ... 578.70 -1.26% ...

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 9:55:51 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- December silver fell 30 cents to $10.65 an ounce following a decline to $10.62 earlier, the lowest intraday level since mid-July. December gold fell $8.20 to $577.80 after a low of $577.50, its lowest since mid-June. "Gold should now look to test towards the June low around $542.50 although oversold signals on the charts could trigger a modest short covering bounce," said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 9:55:35 AM

Still no change for SMH, stuck in the bearish ascending wedge: Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 9:55:33 AM

10-year ($TNX.X) down 3.4 bp at 4.759% ...

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 9:55:17 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Consumer sentiment improved in September, according to researchers at the University of Michigan on Friday. The consumer sentiment index rose to 84.4 in September from 82.0 in August. The increase was above the consensus forecast of Wall Street economists who had expected sentiment to rise to 83.6. The improvement all came from expectations of the economy six months ahead. The expectations index rose to 77.1 from 68.0 in the previous month. This is the highest since January. The current conditions index fell to 95.7 in September from 103.8 in August. This is the lowest level since October.

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 9:53:03 AM

Dateline WSJ - Some of the hottest mutual funds of the past year -- ones that invest in commodities like oil and natural gas -- are starting to take it on the chin.

In the past month, natural-resources and energy funds as a group have lost 6.7% of their value, according to tracking company Morningstar Inc. That has erased a big chunk of their gains for the year: Overall, they're up only 2.6% year to date. For comparison, the broad Standard & Poor's 500-stock index is up 5.6% year to date through Sept. 13.

In the short term, the steep declines in commodities funds is bad news for mutual-fund investors, given that so many people piled into these funds in the past few months, which means they missed much of the run-up. Indeed, many investors are still putting their money into these funds. For instance, the $12.18 billion Pimco CommodityRealReturn Strategy fund gained more than $100 million from the start of the year through Aug. 31. Portfolio manager John Brynjolfsson describes the fund's growth in the past few years as "astronomical."

Commodities prices are famously volatile -- oil prices can soar on Mideast tensions; gold tumbles when inflation worries ease -- so they easily could swing back again. And there are a few relatively bright spots. Funds focusing on gold and precious metals are still up 16% since the start of the year, even though they have fallen back a bit recently

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 9:53:00 AM

Gold hit June 20 lows at 577.70 and it is the last support before 560, so they are tryiong to hold it. Dollar is up, though and oil is down.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 9:51:27 AM

Everything is in line and expected. Again, now we see if it is priced in.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 9:49:37 AM

The decline in industrial output is weighing a little, but bulls are still in command.

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 9:49:32 AM

* SEPT. UMICH SENTIMENT ABOVE CONSENSUS 83.6
* SEPT. UMICH CONSUMER SENTIMENT 84.4 VS 82.0 IN AUG.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 9:48:42 AM

YG06Z ... 577.60 -1.45% .... Challenges its 06/14/06 low close.

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 9:48:24 AM

Markets all making new daily lows. Nothing on the news wires about the consumer sentiment though.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 9:48:10 AM

50% gap. We will see if this is sell the news very soon.

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 9:47:28 AM

DOW INDUSTRIALS ADVANCERS OUTNUMBER DECLINERS 24 TO 6

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 9:47:24 AM

Swing trade short 1/2 position ... round to 3/4 in the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) $104.77 -2.08% ...

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 9:47:16 AM

FORD: ABOUT 25,000-30,000 FORECAST TO TAKE UAW BUYOUT

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 9:46:58 AM

NASDAQ ADVANCERS OUTNUMBER DECLINERS 5 TO 3

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 9:46:42 AM

NYSE ADVANCERS OUTNUMBER DECLINERS 19 TO 9

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 9:44:12 AM

50% gap is NQ 1653.50, R1 is 1650. Which is about QQQQ 200 dma, must hold.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 9:44:09 AM

I felt GREAT and heard the birds singing last night when I filled up the land yacht with diesel at $2.94/ gallon.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 9:42:50 AM

Consumer Sentiment forecasted at 84 ... Next month's will be near 100.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 9:42:23 AM

Watch that yield curve over the next few days.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 9:41:23 AM

YG Dec is now at 577 support.

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 9:39:39 AM

Applied Materials (AMAT) $17.49 +1.21% ....

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 9:39:29 AM

Nat GAs hits a low of 4.60 and Gold a low of 578.30 (using the eminis).

Jeff Bailey : 9/15/2006 9:39:16 AM

Microsoft (MSFT) $26.69 +1.36% ....

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 9:38:42 AM

Oil drops to 62.70/bl (using the crude emini, QM).

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 9:37:14 AM

Watch the big cap techs.

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 9:35:52 AM

I will not place a trade until after the 9:45 economic report. Consumer Sentiment is a market mover.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 9:35:23 AM

QQQQ 40.35 was indeed reistance. If all this is priced in, then it should not go much higher.

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 9:33:49 AM

VIX opens just about where it closed yesterday. The bulls are in solid control of the ball and have field position.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 9:33:39 AM

SMH still stuck under June highs. Watch 34.90 there.

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 9:33:06 AM

EGADS TRIN is 0.43.

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 9:32:46 AM

AD line is a bullish +813 and AD volume above 0 and climbing. No surprise here.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 9:30:14 AM

Put your fibs in the gap.

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 9:29:21 AM

* U.S. TO TAKE CHINA TO WTO OVER AUTO PARTS IMPORTS
* U.S. JOINED BY EU AND CANADA IN WTO CASE VS CHINA

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 9:27:54 AM

They are going to have to cover those calls at 40 big time. QQQQ resistance is at 40.35.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/15/2006 9:26:11 AM

Huge relief for bulls and the race is on now. Support will be QQQQ 200 dma at 40.08.

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 9:18:23 AM

Next on the Economic Report docket is the 9:45 U of Mich Consumer Sentiment. Whew!

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 9:17:48 AM

* JULY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION RISES UNREVISED 0.4%
* AUGUST UTILITY OUTPUT DROPS BY 0.8%
* AUGUST CAPACITY UTILIZATION 82.4% VS. 82.5% EXPECTED
* AUGUST INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT -0.1% VS. 0.2% GAIN EXPECTED

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 9:17:13 AM

This market may be getting ahead of itself and I think in need of a pullback which should give us a much better place to go long. I have taken everything off this chart of NQ except RSI and I would like you to see how NQ reacts when RSI gets this overbot. On August 17th RSI was 81.43 and NQ dropped 55 points. On Sept 9th RSI was 81.79 and NQ dropped 49 points. today RSI has reached 79.43 and I expect bullishness today and today will close higher but next week a pullback of ~50 points. Link

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 9:04:48 AM

Here is a stock that I was bullish on last month but has made some very bearish moves of late. First of all it is a Gold stock so that tells you a lot but still you'd think you would see a bit more bullishness since 70% of a stocks move is related to the general market.

First of all I was bullish because no part of the gap up had ever filled and of course it was a gold stock and I was bullish on gold. This is one stock my sister has in her portfolio and one day I was talking to her and said NG needs to get its butt in gear and make higher highs or a bearish wedge will form, that was the beginning of August. Sure enough not only did a bear wedge form, it confirmed when it broke on August 8th. Then the classic MACD divergence formed and was confirmed by a RSI divergence. Love it when the charts are so clear. Link

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 8:55:32 AM

ES continues to be bullish and got the shot in the arm it needed from the 8:30 CPI data to make new multimonth highs. I am still watching the MACD and RSI. Link

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 8:50:13 AM

Commodities continued to be weak overnight but only Nat GAs and Gold broke their respective PDLs. Oil tagged its PDL but did not break through.

TBonds broke out on the CPI data Link

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 8:45:46 AM

Datelin WSJ - U.S. consumer prices rose in line with expectations during August amid slowing housing and transportation costs.

The consumer price index rose 0.2% last month, the Labor Department reported Friday, following a 0.4% increase in July. Excluding food and energy costs, prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the second month in a row.

Both readings came in as expected, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires. In annual terms, consumer prices were 3.8% higher than a year earlier, on an unadjusted basis. Core prices rose 2.8% in the 12 months ending in August.

Energy prices rose just 0.3%, after jumping 2.9% in July. Gasoline prices climbed by a seasonally adjusted 0.2%. Natural gas increased 0.7%. Electricity prices dipped 0.1%. Food prices increased 0.4%.

The transportation index was only 0.2% higher, as gas prices fell and new vehicle prices dipped 0.1%. Transportation costs in July rose 1.6%. Medical-care prices increased 0.4%.

Housing, which accounts for 40% of the index, rose by 0.2%, after climbing 0.3% in July. Rent climbed 0.4% and owners' equivalent rent rose 0.3%. Clothing prices increased 0.9%, while education and communication rose 0.3%.

In a separate report, the Labor Department said the average weekly earnings of U.S. workers, adjusted for inflation, decreased 0.5% in August. Average hourly earnings inched up 0.1%. Average weekly hours fell 0.3%.

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 8:44:47 AM

Markets really like what they saw in the 8:30 economic report data. All made new overnight highs and broke their respective PDHs. Link

Keene Little : 9/15/2006 8:43:59 AM

With numbers coming in matching expectations (+0.2% CPI) and no threat of an overheating economy (they should actually be worried about the opposite but that'll be later) we're getting a nice pop higher in the futures. The last of the shorts could be squeezed out today so don't try fighting it. But we'll have to see how well it holds after the cash open. Fridays of opex week have tended to be quiet days that are difficult to trade so look for crisp setups or just sit and watch. I've got to run some errands and will be back a little later this morning.

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 8:40:57 AM

BUSH TO HOLD PRESS CONFERENCE AT 11:15 A.M. EASTERN

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 8:37:35 AM

* CPI UP 3.8% YEAR-ON-YEAR
* CORE CPI UP 2.8% YEAR-ON-YEAR, MOST IN 5 YEARS
* AUG. CORE CPI UP 0.2% AS EXPECTED
* AUG. CPI UP 0.2% VS. 0.3% EXPECTED

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 8:36:53 AM

* AUG. FOOD PRICES UP 0.4%, MOST SINCE JAN.
* AUG. REAL WEEKLY EARNINGS FALL 0.5%
* AUG. MEDICAL CARE PRICES UP 0.4%
* AUG. OWNER EQUIVALENT RENT UP 0.3%
* AUG. HOUSING PRICES UP 0.2%
* AUG. ENERGY PRICES UP 0.3%

Jane Fox : 9/15/2006 8:34:50 AM

* SEPT. EMPIRE STATE PRICES PAID INDEX 41.0 VS 44.3 AUG.
* SEPT. EMPIRE STATE NEW ORDERS INDEX 14.0 VS 19.8 IN AUG
* SEPT. EMPIRE STATE INDEX IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS
* SEPT. EMPIRE STATE INDEX 13.8 VS REV 11.0 IN AUG.

Market Monitor Archives