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Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 1:03:11 AM

Japan's Tanigake: No Specific Talks About Euro/Yen At G7

DJ- Japanese Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said Tuesday there were no specific talks about recent euro/yen rates at the weekend meeting of the financial heads of the Group of Seven industrialized countries in Singapore.

"We didn't specifically discuss the euro/yen levels. We discussed economic issues broadly," Tanigaki said at a regular press conference when asked about his remark after the G7 meeting that recent decline in the yen against the euro was "a bit rough."

Keene Little : 9/18/2006 11:19:08 PM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 10:06:26 PM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $10.15 +1.50% ... now seeing correction to this afternoon's trade. Looks like a "bad tick" to $10.40 (4,800 shares), with session high now shown as $10.25.

This closed end "junk bond" fund closes at new 52-week and multi-year high today.

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 10:01:46 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made along with Watch List at this Link

Today's Acitivity

Swing traded long one (1) of the Children's Place PLCE Dec $60 Calls (TUY-LL) at $4.00. Stop currently $53.00 in the underlying, with target of $70.00.

Swing trade closed a portion, or one (1) of the Microsoft MSFT Jan $22 Calls (MQF-AQ) at the bid of $5.20. ($+1.10/contract, or +26.83%)

OI Technical Staff : 9/18/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 9:52:09 PM

Target Increases September Sales Outlook ... AP Story Link

TGT $53.58 -0.11% Link ... Last tick in extended was $54.55.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 9:38:01 PM

Maxim Integrated sees sequential Q1 rev flat to down 3% -
Stock down after hours. I don't see how semis will keep trucking after this and the INTC cut.

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 5:32:37 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

October Crude Oil (cl06v) settled up 47 cents, or +0.47% at $63.80.

November Crude Oil (cl06x) settled up 43 cents, or +0.67% at $64.45.

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 5:14:25 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 4:41:52 PM


DJ- Moody's signs a 20-year lease for 15 floors in 7 World Trade Center, the largest agreement signed yet for the first building to be rebuilt after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 4:32:01 PM

iShares Mexico (AMEX:EWW) $43.19 +2.12% Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 4:24:54 PM

Mexican Retail Association: August Sales Up 14.3% on Year

DJ- Mexican retail association Antad said Monday that sales at its member establishments grew 14.3% in August from the year-ago month to 33.3 billion pesos ($3.1 billion), with same store sales up 3.5%.

Antad said sales at self-service stores rose 7.7% from August 2005, while department store sales rose 21.8% and sales at other retail outlets rose 25.6%.

Antad, which represents close to 10,800 retailers including 1,400 supermarkets and 729 department stores, said floor space last month was 13.1% higher than in August 2005.

Mexico's largest retailer Wal-Mart de Mexico (WALMEX.MX), had reported total sales growth for the month of 16% at MXN15.7 billion, with same-store sales up 4.5%. Walmex isn't a member of Antad.

Antad said that total year-to-date sales among its members grew 13.5% from the first eight months of 2005 to MXN256.8 billion. Same-store sales grew 3.6% from the like 2005 period.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 4:13:42 PM

SMH closes once again in the wedge and belwo June highs and way below its 200 dma. I keep asking, where are the semis? Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 4:09:36 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPY $132.11 : YM 11,650

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 4:05:27 PM

As I rule, I don't enter a QM swing long until I see 30 and 60 mn in oversold. Scalpers can obviously bypass this rule, but swing traders should adhere to it.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 4:03:36 PM

YG stops work very well. Use market.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 4:02:59 PM

If long QM November, your stops should be at 63.50/63.70. The overnigt session is very volatile and stops do not work well with Nymex after-hours, please be aware of this.

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 3:57:12 PM

Applied Materials (AMAT) $17.72 +3.02% ... threatens to close above its 200-day SMA with volume a HEAVY 169.8 million shares, just over 7-times its 3-month average daily volume.

On 10/24/1997 the stock did trade 245.2 million shares as it broke below a then rising 200-day SMA.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 3:56:48 PM

Everyone will roll into QM November at close, be aware of this.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 3:51:55 PM

Oil, like all commodities, is very momentum driven. You can nibble at longs above 64.29 (November), Friday high, which looks like it will hold. Next support would be 64 (Friday close), so I think this whole area between 64 and 64.50 is a buy if you use wider stops, which is a must with QM.

Keene Little : 9/18/2006 3:48:31 PM

If you draw an uptrend line from Sept 11th through this morning's low (which ES broke this afternoon), that's where the current bounce failed so as long as that continues to hold I would say you want to be short here. I'm talking scalping moves here since the larger pattern is not clear yet.

Keene Little : 9/18/2006 3:45:09 PM

The bulls tried today to take this higher but as you can see all they managed to do was keep ES climbing underneath the broken uptrend line from Sept 11th before it let go this afternoon. We got another corrective bounce from this afternoon's low so we should get another swift drop tomorrow morning (it could start as we head into the close). Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 3:39:07 PM

I went out on a limb friday with oil, and it looks like the call was valid. It is very rare for hammers like this after a major sell-off get retested so if oil gets back down to Friday lows, I would not expect it to hold. But right now, we could get as low as 63.70 (Nov) and pose little threat to the growing bullish bias.

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 3:37:56 PM

09/08/06 to 09/15/06 Sector Bell Curve found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 3:29:18 PM

They will close this again at NDX 200 dma. Not enough excuses yet for bears, no one believes oil will hold the gains. Maybe it won't, but above 63.70/64 (Nov), it's bullish. Gold definitely thinks it is.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 3:17:22 PM

NDX stuck below December lows and at 200 dma( which is also 10 month MA). Lots of bulls in the press. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 3:15:09 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 3:12:07 PM

If 585 support breaks, we will most likely retest 577, so put your stop at 584 or so if long.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 3:11:35 PM

YG 60 mn with weekly fibs and projections. 587/590 zone of initial support. They will go for it if it holds. Target would be 615 minimum. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 3:07:03 PM

Weekly fibs for QM06X are: 23.6 % 63.88, 38.2% 64.575, 50% 65.10, 61.8% 65.65.

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 3:05:29 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 9/18/2006 3:02:53 PM

ES is now testing is PDL. Quite the day.

Keene Little : 9/18/2006 2:54:28 PM

Back for another look and I see that the day has progressed as I thought it would--choppy sloppy day. At this point, with a 3-wave move down from Friday's high (wave-a) to this morning's low, and a choppy bounce today (wave-b) it looks like we need an impulsive move down now to finish wave-c. All very small stuff as I try to figure out whether or not Friday's high was THE high. At this point, based on the kind of pullback we're getting I'm thinking it was NOT the high.

So if the THE high hasn't been put in yet and we continue to pull back in a very choppy manner then I'd say we're going to get that b-wave pullback I showed on the SPX chart at the bottom of today's postings. And then we could get a spike higher (for wave-c on that chart) post-FOMC that should cap off this whole thing. In other words if we get a post-FOMC rally to new market highs, I'll be all over it looking for a short entry. In the meantime I'm trying to be patient.

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 2:45:09 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles and watch list at this Link

Took profits on partial MQF-AQ, rolled to TUY-LL.

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 2:16:58 PM

Pacholder High Yield Historical Net Asset Value (NAV) benchmarked to Thursday closes at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 2:09:55 PM

I can ONLY think this action in PHF is a short calling it quits. Monthly dividend of $0.075 would have SEC YIELD at 8.653%. However, take the $0.90 yearly on anyone short ... say $9.80 or lower and you can feel their pain.

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 1:58:58 PM

Ssssqueeeze ... PHF $10.40 +4.0% ....

Jane Fox : 9/18/2006 1:56:18 PM

Here is an excellent example of when to bail on longs or go short. Both MACD and RSI have a bearish divergence when ES hits its PDH. Classic!!!! Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 1:56:57 PM

U.S. Treasury Sells 6-month Bills at High Rate of 4.920%

DJ- The U.S. Treasury awarded $16.00 billion in six-month bills at Monday's auction at a high rate of 4.920%.

The Treasury received bids totaling $36.83 billion and accepted $16.00 billion, including $1.90 billion of noncompetitive tenders. The dollar price was 97.512667 and the investment rate, or bond-equivalent return, was 5.116%.

The Treasury also sold $300 million of six-month bills to foreign and international monetary authority accounts on a noncompetitive bidding basis.

The bid-to-cover ratio, an indication of demand, was 2.30, Treasury said.

Tenders submitted at the high yield were allotted 94.04%.

The median rate was 4.905%; that is, 50% of the amount of accepted competitive bids were tendered at or below that rate.

Of the competitive bids accepted, 5% were tendered at or below the rate of 4.895%.

The Federal Reserve purchased $14.55 billion in bills for its own account in Monday's three- and six-month bill auctions. When the auction was announced, the Fed held $18.37 billion of maturing bills.

The bills awarded to the Federal Reserve are in addition to the public offering amount.

The high rate was down from 4.935% at the previous six-month bill auction.

The high rate was the lowest since the rate of 4.815% at the six-month bill auction on June 5, 2006.

The issue is dated Sept. 21 and matures on March 22, 2007.

Jane Fox : 9/18/2006 1:50:14 PM



Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 1:48:09 PM

ES short recommendatiom at 1335.25, stops should be lowered to even now. The bounce went nowhere, just as I suspected. Done for the day, I need to get away form this nonsense. You can handle the trade from here, it should get down to 1320.

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 1:49:44 PM

As much as MotherRock LP? (see today's 11:18:51 AM post)

Jane Fox : 9/18/2006 1:45:09 PM

* DEC. SILVER ENDS AT $11.29/OZ, UP 41.5 CENTS, OR 3.8%
* DEC. COPPER UP 10.3 CENTS, OR 3.1%, TO END AT $3.4145/LB
* DEC. GOLD CLIMBS $9.80, OR 1.7%, TO CLOSE AT $592.80/OZ

Jane Fox : 9/18/2006 1:44:01 PM


Jane Fox : 9/18/2006 1:44:40 PM

ES's daily high of 1336.50 was 1 tick shy of its PDH.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 1:42:14 PM

I've only been trading futures for 10 years, but what do I know.

Jane Fox : 9/18/2006 1:41:35 PM

Marc I knew it was not me because I am a she and not a he and I have traded an oil contract. Many in the last little while as a matter of fact trying to get this bottom.

Jane Fox : 9/18/2006 1:38:10 PM

Marc I could not imagine what it felt like to be long (anything) just before the attacks in 2001. Then the long horrible wait for the exchanges to open and see how much damage had been done to your account.

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 1:37:37 PM

QM06V ... WEEKLY Pivot Levels (QCharts) ... $59.52, $61.43, Piv= $63.94, $65.86, $68.37.

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 1:34:37 PM

Jane ... keep an eye on October Crude just as you and all OIL TRADERS are. After recent decline, there may be some longs not willing/able to take delivery.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 1:34:26 PM

Just my paranoia, but 9/11 taught me a lesson.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 1:34:00 PM

One other factor: I do not ever trade a future that expires in 2 days in case there is a catstrophy and the exchange closes, etc... If there is a terrorist attack, and oil falls 10 a barrel and the exchange closes and re-opens Friday, you wil be filled right away at open. If you have a longer epxiration, it leaves time for your contract to move back up after the panic.

Jane Fox : 9/18/2006 1:25:47 PM

I see ER was not able to break its PDH by more than a few ticks.

Jane Fox : 9/18/2006 1:25:26 PM

ES's PDH is 1336.75 and it should be resistance.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 1:23:25 PM

Yes Jane, but I like to get used to the numbers and the weekly pivots and so forth so that I can "feel" it early. October will cease trading in 2 days, so I would not waste much time anymore with it. Just how I trade, I like to get in the groove before a whole new month starts. I don;t care what anyone else does, that is just my way. I will keep quoting November because that is what I am trading and what everyone will be trading tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 1:22:31 PM

iShares Silver (SLV) $111.81 +3.53% ... WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... $97.48, $102.73, Piv= $109.87, $115.12, $122.26.

10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) up 2.4 bp at 4.822% ...

In recent weeks I've been focusing more on YIELD/precious metals price direction.

Note my 11:31:19 AM post of Net Foreign Buys (July)

Jane Fox : 9/18/2006 1:19:36 PM

QM's high on the Oct is 64.225.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 1:19:19 PM

QM hould pause here, but what a nice run from Friday.

Jane Fox : 9/18/2006 1:19:14 PM

I am still using the QM October contract because there is still a substantial higher volume there and TS is still using the Oct for their continuous contracts.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 1:18:45 PM

I had posted on Friday that November oil would be at 65 this week to get in the 65/75 range that Opec wants, and here we are. There is just so much more money trading QM. You feel like you are wasting your time nabbing 2 or 3 ES points when QM makes the equivalent of 10 to 15 ES points in about 30 mns.

Jane Fox : 9/18/2006 1:17:21 PM

ER is now testing its PDh and seems to have enough steam to break through.

Jane Fox : 9/18/2006 1:16:22 PM

TICKS chime in at +800.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 1:16:11 PM

QM 65!

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 1:15:49 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 1:15:42 PM

VIX chart: Link

Jane Fox : 9/18/2006 1:15:13 PM

If you wanted to go long this market, ER was the one to pick. Sadly I picked ES because I use the VIX to trade. Link

Jane Fox : 9/18/2006 1:11:32 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The confidence of U.S. home builders fell for the eighth straight month in September, dropping to the lowest level since February 1991, the National Association of Home Builders said Monday.

The NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index dropped by three points in September to 30 from a revised 33 in August, indicating that most builders think the housing market is poor. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected the index to fall to 31

A year ago, the index was at 65. A reading of 50 would indicate builder sentiment was balanced between good and poor.

The index peaked at 72 in June 2005 and has fallen nine months in a row. It's the fastest decline in the 21-year history of the index, which has had a fairly good record of predicting the number of new homes started.

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 1:10:38 PM

Last weeks VIX.X low? See MONTHLY S1 and my 10:43:42 AM EDT post.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 1:10:03 PM

ES short 1335.25, leave the stop at 1337. Again, this bounce is unlikely to go much further now that SMH once again fails to get above 35 and hold. What is goin on with the SOX? Everyone says it's bullish, I just see the most lagging equity sector in this rally. But maybe someone is seeing something else? Please enlighten me.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 1:06:25 PM

VIX 11.72. on a rise since hitting last week lows at 10.50 or so. Resistance is 10 day ema at 12.11. Long trades should only be daytrades with a VIX this low that is finding support ahead of Feds. This is not what bulls want, they want to see fear ahead of the Feds, not complacency.

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 1:02:19 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 1:00:00 PM

It's a bullllll market!

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 12:59:54 PM

NYSE 8400.

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 12:59:22 PM

RUT.X first to take out last week's highs!

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 12:59:09 PM

They want to hit Friday highs, so be careful now if short. It will fall fast tomorrow, but today is called let's hit the short stops.

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 12:59:00 PM

Small caps waking up a bit ... RUT.X now challenges NQ/QQQQ/NDX for major index % winner!

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 12:54:10 PM

Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) 154.62 +2.12% ... percentage gainer among tech-like sectors. Back above still rising 200-day SMA and challenges recent 09/01 relative high.

Tab Gilles : 9/18/2006 12:53:12 PM

Current open positions and watch list. Link

Those who tracked Emisphere Technologies (EMIS) and exited positions as I recommended, will note EMIS move today, breaking over $9. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 12:47:13 PM

Junk Bond alert ... with PHF $10.05 +0.50% and a new 52-weeker. Since my "economic bottom" call back in late 2002, the PHF has NEVER been able to trade above $10.25.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 12:45:00 PM

It doesn't mean we will fall apart today or anyday, just that there will be selling pressure on rallies.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 12:44:24 PM

This is starting to add up. INTC cut, Freescale cut, Seagate cut, Western Digital cut. The Vista play is being discounted and phased out, This is a warning sign as they try and bring prices down again.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 12:42:33 PM

Seagate Technology cu tto hold at Citigroup - MarketWatch

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 12:42:08 PM

Western Digital cut to hold at Citigroup - MarketWatch

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 12:31:59 PM

If you want to learn something, listen to Marc Faber. This guy knows what he is talking about and a big fundamental way, which is what you MUST adhere to when investing your nest egg: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 12:36:06 PM

Back for a sec. Oil bid is definitely slowing the equity bounce. Gold is now hitting above 590 resistance. If you bought gold pretty much anytime last week, you are now back to even regardless of all the doomsday press(the herd: get that in your head, the press is the herd, they are not your guiding light, they work for the established Wall street network which does not work for you as far as getting the best price). Of course it would have been better to hit it at 577, but it's a great fundamental play.

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 12:23:17 PM

Bullish swing trade sell partial call position alert ... sell 1/2 of the Microsoft MSFT Jan $22 Calls (MQF-AQ) at the bid of $5.20.

MSFT $26.90 +0.19% ...

MQ-FAQ $5.20 x $5.40

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 12:23:51 PM

If you went short at 1335.25 when I suggested you do (12:00:08 PM ), lower your stop to 1337. Bring it down to even when ES gets below 1333. I have to step away.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 12:13:54 PM

If you take out all the psycho noise (learn to use wider stops on a day like today), nothing has changed on the ES chart except the definite sense that we are headed for 1320/1323. After that, it's anyone's guess, but I would favor the bullish side into EOM. But for now, don't chase this, short it for probably a nice 10 to 15 point move: Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 12:12:42 PM

Swing trade bullish call filled alert .... on the TUY-LL at $4.00 with PLCE $58.26

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 12:05:20 PM

Swing trade bullish call option alert ... for one (1) of the Children's Place PLCE December $60 Calls (TUY-LL) for a LIMIT price of $4.00. Currently $3.90 x $4.20

PLCE $58.48 +0.75% Link

Stop $53.00 in the underlying, target $70.00.

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 11:58:48 AM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $89.99 +2.55% Link ... back to its 07/26/06 earnings report price level.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 12:00:08 PM

The usual gangsters are having a field day hitting stops, but if oil keeps this bid, I doubt very much we will crack through ES 1337 by the end of the day, even 1336. This is also adjustments to all those naked calls that had to be covered at QQQQ 40. I still think ES will get down to at least 1320/1322 before the Feds so if you can stomach a wider stop, and ES short here shoud be ok.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 11:55:07 AM

QM bid. Don't you wish you had bought that Hammer on Friday.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 11:54:29 AM

ES hits ex-gap open of Friday. Should hold as resistance.

Jane Fox : 9/18/2006 11:52:39 AM

The VIX and AD volume were in sync and sometimes that is all you need. If I could only watch two internals those are the two I would pick.

Jane Fox : 9/18/2006 11:51:28 AM

AD line is now picking up and is at +262, nothing to get too excited about but it is better than before.

Keene Little : 9/18/2006 11:50:17 AM

So far price action since Friday's high has been very choppy. I'm beginning to wonder if we'll get a sideways consolidation instead of a pullback before heading higher again. If so I would expect the sideways chop to last a couple of days and be horrible to trade. We could be in for a short period of no conviction--the bears are too afraid to short it and the bulls are afraid to buy so close to resistance. The result will be chop and means don't force trades that aren't there.

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 11:50:07 AM

DJ Newswires Survey: U.S. August PPI Seen +0.2%; Core +0.2%

DJ- The producer price index report for August will be less of an event than usual because the consumer price index has already been reported (up 0.2%, core up 0.2%), but nonetheless is expected to show tame producer prices.

The median estimate of 22 economists surveyed Monday by Dow Jones Newswires is for the August PPI to be up 0.2% overall compared to a 0.1% gain in July, while the core nonfood, non-energy component is expected to be up 0.2% compared to a 0.3% decline in July.

The Labor Department is due to release the August PPI report at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT) on Tuesday.

"The PPI rose moderately in August," said Steve Wood, who heads up Insight Economics in Danville, Calif. "Although energy prices softened throughout the month, they are prices relatively early in the month for the PPI report. Therefore, they will generate moderate upward pressure for the August report before falling sharply for the September report. The core PPI rose modestly in line with its recent gains."

Wood looks for a 0.3% overall PPI gain with the core up 0.2%.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 11:45:26 AM

The trading action is with QM. Equities are a stop run pain and the usual scalp noise.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 11:41:52 AM

Oil is holding on to support and could see a run up in the close.

Jane Fox : 9/18/2006 11:39:13 AM

AD volume to new daily highs also supports the bullishness. The only internal that does not is the AD line at -5.

Jane Fox : 9/18/2006 11:38:18 AM

TRIN is flatlined at a bullish 0.68 supporting the bullish VIX.

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 11:38:05 AM

5-Day Cone for Hurricane Helene Link

Jane Fox : 9/18/2006 11:37:59 AM

VIX is hugging daily lows suggesting ES will be making another visit to daily highs.

Keene Little : 9/18/2006 11:37:21 AM

I'm back for a look. The DOW has a very similar ascending wedge pattern as the one I showed for SPX earlier (11:03 PM below). They're both just underneath the top of the wedge and it could be getting ready for a kiss goodbye. Each time the DOW has pulled back during the last month it found support at a previously broken downtrend line from the May high. The latest is the one through the Sept 5th high and is currently near 11462 which is also the uptrend line from July. DOW 120-min chart: Link

If the DOW drops down to this level you can be sure it'll bounce and that may be a good long play to a new high. But if it breaks then that will be a change in behavior and indicate to me that the ascending wedge is done. That would mean get short for a ride back down to at least 11K and probably a lot lower. But first we'll need to see price let go of current levels.

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 11:34:39 AM


DJ- National Hurricane Center says the Category 3 storm could threaten Bermuda at week's end. Helene's top sustained winds are now at 120 mph and is about 1,100 miles away from the island.

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 11:32:35 AM


DJ- Record transaction takes place as trading resumes after being suspended for three previous business days as Nybot mulled merger offer from IntercontinentalExchange. Nybot seat is now offered at $1,050,000.

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 11:31:19 AM


DJ- July's total of $32.9 billion is the lowest in more than a year and less than half the month's trade deficit. Foreign net purchases of U.S. Treasury notes and bonds tumble 76% from June to $6.6 billion.

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 11:29:41 AM


DJ -Shares jump 13% as The Wall Street Journal reports the firm is winding up an auction to sell itself, with Motorola in the best position to win the company. Deal may come in at a 20% premium to Symbol's $3.2 billion market capitalization.

SBL $14.39 +13.21% Link

MOT $25.22 +1.48% Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 11:26:40 AM


DJ- Auto makers briefly discussed the idea of an alliance between them but have dropped the idea and plan no further talks, The Wall Street Journal reports.

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 11:18:51 AM

Hedge fund Amaranth reportedly closing amid natural gas losses Market Watch Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 11:12:11 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 11:11:26 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Intel (INTC : Intel Corporation 10:55am 09/18/2006 INTC was downgraded to peer perform from outperform at Thomas Weisel Partners, citing concerns over the negative impact of market share shifts.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 11:10:06 AM

Freescale Semi. cut to neutral at UBS - MarketWatch

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 11:08:37 AM

If you don't watch the QM pivots, you can't trade this mess.

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 11:03:19 AM

Excellent comment regarding "style drift" at Amaranth .... something I warn about from time to time regarding mutual funds.

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 11:01:59 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 9/18/2006 10:43:50 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Capital flows into the United States fell sharply in July, the Treasury Department reported Monday.

Net capital flows into the United States fell to $32.9 billion in July from $75.1 billion in June. This amounted to the lowest for monthly capital inflows since May 2005.

The decline was led by private foreign investors, who bought $31.8 billion in Treasury bonds and notes, down from $82.4 billion in June. This was also the lowest amount of purchases since May 2005

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 10:43:42 AM

Index Pivot Matrix (WEEKLY/MONTHLY) found at this Link

Jane Fox : 9/18/2006 10:42:31 AM

Dateline MarketWatch - The auto sector came under pressure after a news report that General Motors Corp. (GM) and Ford Motor Co. (F) have discussed a possible alliance. The Wall Street Journal's online edition reported that the two auto makers have abandoned the possibility after brief discussions, however.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 10:41:01 AM

SOX is saying don't go short. But watch QM Nov 63.70 fulcrum.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 10:39:58 AM

ES right at 61.8% Friday, 1333.25/1333.50. You need to watch oil, QM Nov support was 63.70 and it held so far. If it bounces, ES will drop. If it falls below, stocks will rally out of this congestion.

Jane Fox : 9/18/2006 10:28:42 AM

AD line has "improved" to +148 and AD volume is making new daily highs. Certainly not what you would call bullish but I wouldn't be short either.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 10:22:59 AM

My oil quotes will be the November contrat now, since October ceases trading on Wednesday. (QM06X)Support is at 63.70, followed by 63.12.

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 10:20:01 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 10:14:48 AM

IMF: Members Approve Quota Reform With 90.6% of Votes ... DJ (partial)- The International Monetary Fund Monday got the nod from the majority of its 184 members to pursue reforms that will immediately give greater influence within the fund to China, Mexico, South Korea and Turkey and pave the way for developing nations to get a bigger voice.

The IMF said the changes were approved by holders of 90.6% of votes, above a required threshold of 85%.

The Washington-based fund, long criticized as being a tool of the U.S. and the world's other most highly developed nations, will grant a greater role and quotas to the four nations and in a second stage of reforms, will embark on a wider-spread rejigging of quotas.

Jane Fox : 9/18/2006 10:13:31 AM

TRIN at 0.74 is bullish as well.

Jane Fox : 9/18/2006 10:13:11 AM

VIX is confirming ES's new daily highs.

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 10:12:03 AM

E Coli (update) ... Natural Selection Foods, the company whose fresh spinach was linked to an E. coli outbreak that's sickened at least 109 people said its organic products had been cleared of contamination, while health officials continued working to pinpoint the bacteria source.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 10:05:42 AM

Watch YG 583 support going forward. I think the best trades to come are in oil and gold.

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 10:07:40 AM

Applied Materials (AMAT) $17.53 +1.97% Link ... either side of its 200-day SMA again today.

Atop this morning's most active list and could be "key stock" for tech this week. (see Saturday's MM) Link and Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 10:02:07 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 9:59:44 AM

But the same thing happened in March/April.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 9:59:27 AM

Conquered, now support (2236.91). SOX is putting in a better show today, but is still far away from its 200 dma.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 9:57:26 AM

I see no reason for that support not to be bought, but my sense is that there are some sellers waiting on a bounce. No one believes oil bottomed Friday ( I do), so they keep buying. And they might be right, this rally could go on all the way through the elections. We'll see. The suprise card will be oil. COMP has immediate resistance at 2236.91.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/18/2006 9:53:20 AM

It's pretty basic. NDX 200 dma and 10 monthly MA support at 1630, or QQQQ 40.08.

Jeff Bailey : 9/18/2006 9:47:37 AM

Applied Materials (AMAT) $17.72 +3.02% ... Announces it repurchased 145 million shares of its common stock for around $2.5 billion under accelerated stock repurchase program.

Recent buyback, combined with nearly 9 million shares already repurchased in the current fiscal quarter, resulted in a 10 percent reduction in outstanding common at the end of its third fiscal quarter.

Applied Materials said its board of directors also approved a new repurchase program authorizing up to $5.0 billion in stock repurchases over the next three years.

Jane Fox : 9/18/2006 9:37:30 AM

AD line is -442 and AD volume is basically at 0. I will have call this a draw.

Jane Fox : 9/18/2006 9:26:50 AM

Here is what I will would like happen on the crude oil Emini chart. A failure at ~65.50 resistance then make a new yearly low or even better a double bottom at yearly lows with both MACD and RSI making a higher low. That would prove to me the bulls are in control. Link

Jane Fox : 9/18/2006 9:38:59 AM

Just like the ES, ER has a bearish MACD divergence supported by the RSI. Charts are not in alignment. Link

Jane Fox : 9/18/2006 9:11:59 AM

I have said repeatedly that MACD needs to get moving and make a higher high to support prices' higher high and I see that has happened on both the YM and NQ charts. I am even less sure of my bearish prediction for this week than I was a few minutes ago. Link

Jane Fox : 9/18/2006 9:08:21 AM

I would feel a lot more certain about my bearish prediction this week if YM had a bearish MACD divergence as well but it does not although its RSI does. Link

Jane Fox : 9/18/2006 9:06:04 AM

ES could fall all the way back to its 50EMA and still remain bullish; the bearish MACD and RSI suggest that just may happen. I don't think this will be a bullish week. Link

Jane Fox : 9/18/2006 9:03:16 AM

TBonds broke their PDLs overnight and continue to fall making new overnight lows (using a 9:30 open that is).

Oil bullishly broke its PDH overnight but I am still waiting for it to make a new yearly low with a MACD divergence and then I will jump on board.

Gold was bullish breaking its PDH but has retreated to make a new overnight low, which is not bullish.

Natural Gas broke its PDH overnight and is now pushing up against its overnight high. Link

Keene Little : 9/18/2006 8:57:55 AM

YM is finding support at its short term uptrend line from Thursday morning's low. A break below 11640 would be a confirmed break of that trend line. I'll be away from the market this morning so I'll catch up with you before noon.

Jane Fox : 9/18/2006 8:56:45 AM

Dateline WSJ - WASHINGTON -- The U.S. current account deficit grew slightly in the second quarter of 2006, but its share of the overall economy did not rise from the previous three months.

The current account deficit rose to $218.4 billion in the April-to-June quarter from a revised $213.2 billion in the first quarter, the Commerce Department said Monday. The first-quarter deficit was originally reported as $208.7 billion.

The jump was a little larger than analysts expected. A Dow Jones Newswires survey of nine economists expected the gap to come in at $214.0 billion in the second quarter.

The $218.4 billion second-quarter gap was 6.6% of the overall economy, as measured by gross domestic product. This percentage was also 6.6% in the first quarter, the Commerce Department said.

The current account balance is a broad measure of international trade that looks at goods and services, transfer payments, and investment income. About 90% of the deficit is accounted for by the balance in goods and services.

Jane Fox : 9/18/2006 8:55:58 AM

Equity Markets are testing their overnight lows after making higher highs. I'm not sure what got into them but there was a report out at 8:30 showing the deficit rose to 218.40 billion in the 2nd quarter. Link

Tab Gilles : 9/18/2006 8:47:19 AM

Here are some commodity charts with highlighted support levels.

$CRB Link $WTIC Link $GASO Link $DJUSCL Link $DJUSAL Link $GOLD Link $DJUSST Link $DJUSBM Link

Keene Little : 9/18/2006 7:56:26 AM

If we get another small leg up in the bounce that started at 1:00 on Friday and it gets to where there are two equal legs up, that gives us ES 1335.50 and YM 11682. Bouncing up to those levels this morning would give us a retest of the overnight highs for ES at 1335 and 11681. That could be a good setup for a short play if it happens.

If instead we see the market keep going and push to another high, above Friday's high, I'll continue to look for negative divergences to test the short side since another new high would actually make the EW count for the leg up from Sept 11th more bearish (double zig-zag count) and could then be counted as the last leg up in the ascending wedge (and not need the down-up sequence I mentioned below).

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