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Jeff Bailey : 9/20/2006 2:00:40 AM

Watching to see if QM holds the $62.00 "bottom"

Jeff Bailey : 9/20/2006 2:00:12 AM

Here it is Marc Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/20/2006 1:58:57 AM

QM Nov weekly S2 is 60.15 and daily S2 is 59.95. If we finally get a washout, that would be where I load the truck. But we could find support at 61.025, daily S1. All this of course if weekly S1 at 62.075 does not hold. Resistance is 62.30, 62.65 and 63.05. Monthly S2 is actually way above at 65, and it is rare to close a month below, so I would expect an EOM bounce to that level.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/20/2006 1:53:35 AM

Who has the book to bill?

Tab Gilles : 9/20/2006 1:00:45 AM

Good News & Bad News on the tech front. Oracle blows out earnings and Yahoo warns on 3Q. Link Link

Wednesday morning should provide for some volatility...AHT shows several tech/QQQQ stocks trading up.

ORCL $18.28 +$2.15 (+13.33%); AMGN $69.99 +$0.54 (+0.78%); AAPL $74 +$0.23 (+0.31%); CSCO $23.03 +0.27 (+1.19%); GOOG $404.80 +$0.99 (+0.25%); SBUX $34.05 +$0.37 (+1.08%); INTC $19.52 +$0.10 (+0.51%); MSFT $27.07 +$0.21 (+0.78%)

As I've stated several times on MM...tech will lead this rally!

However...tomorrow the Fed will meet, if this rally is to last, I'd see what it's doing come 3 PM. If it's up stay long...if down then sell or hedge your positions.

My MM open positions are currently UOPIX & UAPIX since 6/27/06. Long NDX & RUT. Link Link

Keene Little : 9/19/2006 10:23:50 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 10:25:19 PM

Swiss Franc Dec. (sf06z) $0.80610 -0.06 ... PnF does look similar to Gold's PnF chart.

Broke a triple bottom at 0.8125 just the other day.

Bearish vertical count to 0.77. First sign of strength, or "buy signal" would be 0.8275.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 10:05:40 PM

I don't think that trader at Amaranth had much discipline, or understood trend.

OI Technical Staff : 9/19/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 9:59:39 PM

Don't forget to add Treasury yields into your equation Marc! Understanding the trend of what your trading isn't a bad idea either folks.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 9:24:16 PM

CHF (Swiss Franc) is up and the dollar is heading down a little. This should support gold, but crude will need to rally. I any case, watch those three: CHF up, USD down and QM up. That is the friendly trend for gold.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 9:09:49 PM

Kitco's spot silver (if you don't have charts of your own overnight) ... Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 9:02:38 PM

Trading underway in some Asian markets ... Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 8:51:33 PM

My MM Profiles ... see tonight's PLCE , then 07:01:37 PM, then 05:43:46 PM

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 8:49:24 PM

Wheeeewwww! I'm exhausted. What a day. See you in the morning.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 8:47:55 PM

Boy ... PLCE has treated my account well over the years from the bullish side. It has been a stock that shorts love to hate, but have been squeezed so many times (they're growing to fast and can't keep it up).

I say we keep it as a long/bull retailer (I hold the same call(s) in my own account as profiled in MM) at this time.

However, there's a lot of retail stocks out there, and this one might not be for everyone.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 8:47:51 PM

PLCE ... stock opened flat-to-higher this morning, then turned south to $56.00 with a lot of stocks just before noon.

I tend to be the type of trader/investor that avoids any possible "negatives," just in case something bad does happen.

Fundamentals look positive going forward Link and the technicals Link sure look poised for an advance.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 8:47:44 PM

Children's Place Late Filing of Form 10-q ... Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 8:47:23 PM

Children's Place (PLCE) alert $57.58 -0.31% Link ... just seeing news from last night that company said it received "NASDAQ Letter" regarding being out of compliance with listing requirements because company has delayed filing its quarterly report.

Reuters Story Link

I (Jeff Bailey) have seen multiple companies (NVDA as example 08/10/06 MM @ 04:20 PM to 04:39 PM) that have delayed filings as they review stock option grants.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 8:11:08 PM

Other possible retail locations ... (may not carry all Fisher-Price products so call store first) within 200 miles of Denver, CO.

KSS $67.57 +0.56% Link (good gravy!)

TGT $54.39 +1.51% Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 8:04:22 PM

Wal-Mart (WMT) $48.50 +0.83% Link ... (listed retailer for Elmo) ... where I fought off somebody's Grandma about 10-years ago for one of these things about a month before Christmas holiday. (just kidding, but they were down to their last box)

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 8:00:55 PM

ToysRus ... they got gobbled up too.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 7:57:18 PM

eToys ... they got gobbled up I believe (listed retailer for Elmo)

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 7:55:43 PM

Mattel (MAT) $19.42 -0.25% Link ... Manufactures Elmo

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 7:53:55 PM

Elmo T.M.X "sold out" at Fisher-Price Store ($40.00 an elmo) Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 7:36:40 PM

Nymex's Open Interest on the October Crude Oil (cl06x) contract at 62,220 contracts. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 7:01:37 PM

Bearish swing trade short lower stop alert ... For the iShares Silver (SLV) to $114.15.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 7:01:32 PM

iShares Silver (SLV) unconventional $1 box (above $100 is usually $2) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 6:47:14 PM

Continuous Silver ($SILVER) conventional $0.10 box at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 6:44:26 PM

Continuous Crude Oil ($WTIC) ... conventional $0.50 box at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 6:41:50 PM

Continuous Nat. Gas ($NATGAS) conventional $0.20 box Link

$0.50 makes it as bearish (never a buy signal after $11.00 Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 6:23:32 PM

January Crude (cl07f) $64.10 ... has broken bullish support trend ($67.00) and exceeded its bearish vertical count of $67.50.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 6:21:41 PM

November Crude (cl06x) $62.08 ... achieved now exceeds its bearish vertical count of $65.00.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 5:40:45 PM

This should keep a floor on oil tonight, as Iran will most certainly not back down after such a comment. Ah, those elections...
UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - President George W. Bush said on Tuesday in a message to the Iranian people that the government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is using their resources to fund terrorists and pursue nuclear weapons.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 5:43:46 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

AMAT may become even BIGGER "key" than planned. First thing that came to mind was "chips have exposure in Asia."

Today's Activity

All CLOSED positions (entire/partial) posted with price Benchmarks at time of close on the options at this Link

Trade Blotter from 12:30:20 PM at this Link ... MTD stayed the same (can't change what is closed) and slight improvement in OPEN positions bottom line (didn't panic, just managed KNOWN and perceived risk).

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 5:06:43 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 4:51:15 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 4:51:11 PM

Great trade Marc! And I agree entirely with the A/D note. Let it trade the level, see what happens....

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 4:50:58 PM

Yahoo Finance Regional International Indices page Link

Reuters Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 4:44:04 PM

GREAT CALL ON THE ES. I got out at 1324.75 Thanks I will never know how you choose those targets so well and I guess that is why I have been a subscriber to OI since 1998. Thanks again R.
PS When a target is reached does that mean we can go the other way or do we wait for another setup?

Thanks Regan and I'm glad you took the trade when it was not easy to do so. As for reversing, I don't recommend it on a really negative ADDEC line day like today. Yes, it would have worked, but play the odds. If that was the bottom for now, there will be pretty of opportunities to get back in long on a pullback.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 4:42:36 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $26.86 +0.26% ... $27.13 extended.

It looks like "software" is the leaders for the QQQQ strength! (see last couple of week's MM posts)

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 4:40:43 PM

We are back to watching QQQQ 200 dma at 40.06 with semis lagging and still in the wedge.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 4:40:42 PM

Thai Army Commander Taking Over As Acting Prime Minister

DJ- Thailand's army commander will serve as acting prime minister, an army spokesman said Tuesday.

The Thai army wrested power from Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, sending tanks and troops into the streets of the Thai capital and declaring martial law Wednesday.

Commander-in-Chief Gen. Sondhi Boonyaratkalin, who is known to be close to Thailand's revered constitutional monarch, will serve as acting prime minister, army spokesman Col. Akarat Chitroj said.

Sondhi, a well-regarded officer, is a Muslim in this Buddhist-dominated nation. He is known to be close to Thailand's revered constitutional monarch, King Bhumibol Adulyadej.

Sondhi's troops struck while Thaksin was abroad, circling his offices with tanks, seizing control of television stations and declaring a provisional authority loyal to the king.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 4:39:44 PM

Jim, just saw your post. Yes, that is it pretty much in a nutshell. Weekly S2 is, guess what, 60. If 62, weekly S1 does not hold, that is where we are going. In other words, traders who went long at 62, should use tight stops. If it drops, the next entry is 60 and a solid trade into the winter months. In the end, we should be back at 65 next month, so if you can stomach the swings (typical QM) that is pretty much the game being played.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 4:31:28 PM

Oracle (ORCL) ... Earnings Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 4:30:41 PM

My newswire feed are scrolling with overseas news/updates.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 4:29:47 PM

Oracle (ORCL) $16.13 -0.73% ... surging to $17.50 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 4:27:33 PM

Thailand's Thaksin Cancels UN Speech

DJ- Thailand prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra canceled a speech to the U.N. General Assembly Tuesday after the military seized power in Bangkok, Cable News Network reported.

Earlier, the U.N. said that Thaksin, who had been scheduled to speak Wednesday, had switched places with Montenegro and would speak Tuesday night.

Thailand government spokesman Surapong Suebwonglee, who was with Thaksin in New York, said the coup leaders "cannot succeed" and was confident the coup would fail "because democracy in Thailand has developed to some ... measure of maturity."

Keene Little : 9/19/2006 4:20:34 PM

Playing with Fibs and trend lines, and assuming we'll get another leg down as part of the pullback from last week's high, price might play out as depicted on this SPX 60-min chart which zooms in a little on the 120-min chart I've been showing each day (8:26 AM for the latest update). It's possible the pullback is finished and it'll just climb from here so bears beware of that possibility.

A drop to the lower trend line around 1306 could then set up a run to near 1340 (for two equal legs up from Sept 11th). This is just speculation at the moment but the pullback so far fits as part of the b-wave down that I've got labeled on this chart. SPX found support today at a 38% retracement of the rally from Sept 11th. A 50% retracement is at 1307.79 (cash). Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 4:12:00 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPY $131.82

Keene Little : 9/19/2006 4:05:50 PM

ES is stalling at its downtrend line from Monday's high, at about 1329.50. A continuation higher here would obviously be bullish whereas a drop back down tomorrow morning would show that this is a retest of that resistance line.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 4:05:35 PM

Subscribers = My best clients.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 4:05:33 PM

Probably don't have to remind you all but tomorrow's economic events include:

2:15 p.m. FOMC fed funds rate decision expected. Previous: +5.25%.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 4:03:18 PM

Lowering small caps to "equal weight" from "overweight" (isn't that what analysts do AFTER they tell their best clients?)

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 3:57:49 PM

Beazer Homes (BZH) $49.90 -1.82% Link ... homebuilder on OI's call play list.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 3:56:10 PM

ORCL $16.23 -0.12% ... earnings after the bell.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 3:55:17 PM

$DJUSHB 653.58 -1.64% Link .... 5-box chart

Jim Brown : 9/19/2006 3:54:49 PM

SEMI Book-to-Bill coming out later tonight. Could be impacting chip expectations.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 3:53:00 PM

AMAT $17.41 -2.08% ... right where we exited.

Jim Brown : 9/19/2006 3:53:39 PM

Marc, I am in the Nov QM with you. I bought the dip and I am hoping Iran's president says something negative at the UN tonight. If he warns against sanctions and retaliation we could be on a rocket ride tomorrow. Conversely, if the speech is dovish we could hit $60 tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 3:52:20 PM

Taiwan Semi (TSM) $9.66 -2.62% Link ... right at its 200-day SMA at the close too!

Would'a thought this one gotten whacked hardest.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 3:46:42 PM

IWM $72.27 ... DIW-AS now $4.60 x $4.70

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 3:44:39 PM

When I was writing last night's Market Wrap ... I thought to myself ... "now watch, some type of geopolitical event will take place tomorrow."

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 3:36:56 PM

Jane! Thanks for the USO ticker ... futures traders (subscribers) that were long may have been able to use for hedge instead of operating "blind" without quotes/access to other platforms.

Keene Little : 9/19/2006 3:35:30 PM

The bounce has made it higher than I would have expected here. It still fits as a 4th wave but not if it gets above ES 1329.50, yesterday afternoon's low (and the end of the 1st wave down). The downtrend line from yesterday's high is also near that same level. If it stays below that and drops to a new low that's when I'll be interested in trying a long. It could be a good scalp short here with a stop at 1330.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 3:31:43 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 388.28 +0.01% ... edge green!

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 3:30:04 PM

YM is bumping up against its PDL and may find resistance there.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 3:28:51 PM

December Fed Funds (ff06z) ... 94.74 +0.02% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 3:28:08 PM

September Fed Funds Futures (ff06u) 94.76 ... (100 - 94.76 = 5.25%) ... MARKET not expecting any action tomorrow.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 3:23:17 PM

... or at least no more bearishness. What I am trying to say it is time to get out of your shorts.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 3:22:45 PM

I expect bullishness into the close.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 3:17:24 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link ... when I returned on vacation (09/11/06) that day's NH/NL for NYSE and NASDAQ finished 84:53 and 48:76.

I'm still without the 10-day, but on 09/11/06, the IWM did fall to $71.15.

It was when we were filled on 09/01/06 that the VIX.X stuck its head above 14.00.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 3:11:31 PM

TICKS +1000

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 3:11:22 PM

VIX is now below its PDH and all bearish bets are off.

Keene Little : 9/19/2006 3:07:57 PM

If ES finds support at 1323.75 (two equal legs down from the latest high) and bounces back up towards 1327 that could be the end of the consolidation and a scalp short play to 1319.75. If you trade it short definitely look for only a scalp.

Keene Little : 9/19/2006 3:05:49 PM

We could be in the middle of a small 4th wave consolidation which might continue sideways into the close. That would set up a move down tomorrow morning and then a quick reversal back up.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 3:05:46 PM


Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 3:04:53 PM

I closed the oil trade at 62.15 for +.10. I can't trust this, we are stalling at Friday lows resistance. I have to leave anyway. Never make a good day bad.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 3:03:56 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 9/19/2006 3:01:26 PM

After first finding temporary support at YM 11600 the bounce found that level to be resistance which made for a good spot to try a short. The caution here is that we might not have much left to the downside before getting a bigger bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 3:01:02 PM

XOM $65.28 -1.53% ... On 09/11/06 when we closed out those puts for a better-than 100% gain ... XOM was trading $64.80.

Keene Little : 9/19/2006 2:59:31 PM

If we get that 5th wave down then I'd target 1319.75, a 50% retracement of the rally from Sept 11th, as a reasonable place to try a long play. Just don't let it go much against you--the daily charts are turning over.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 2:58:13 PM

OIX.X 568.87 -2.29% ... probes Friday's and MONTHLY Lows ....

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 2:49:21 PM

Golds 100 oz. emini ZG has a yearly low of 576.80 - currently at 579.80.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 2:48:15 PM

If the VIX breaks back below its PDH I will say the daily low is in.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 2:47:25 PM

I agree Marc ... the time to have taken action looks to have been just after 12:05 PM EDT at $64.00 when November gave up DAILY Pivot.

Can really see how traders have stair-stepped in lower at each DAILY Pivot Level ($63.56) and ($62.68) since.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 2:44:54 PM

Now the sellers are returning.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 2:41:42 PM

I got lucky, I put in the trade a second before it shut off and I got in at 62.05. I will move the stop up very quickly. I don't trust this, but it could be the trade of the month, so I am going for it.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 2:40:47 PM

CNBC's Rick Santelli discussing history, and past impact of Thailand's currency that triggered major declines in region.

Shoot ... missed the year

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 2:40:12 PM

weekly S1 should hold ahead of inventories. This is not time to panic.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 2:39:31 PM

iShares Silver (SLV) $107.64 -3.63% ... Friday's lows were $104.61

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 2:39:25 PM

Re-opens. I bought at 62.05, now at 62.20.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 2:38:20 PM

Coeur d'Alene Mines (NYSE:CDE) $4.58 -2.13% ... still holding above Friday's lows ($4.48).

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 2:37:10 PM

Apex Silver Mines (AMEX:SIL) $14.77 -4.15% ... has edged UNDER Monday's lows.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 2:36:34 PM

Amex Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 294.17 -4.12% ... probes Friday's lows.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 2:35:39 PM

* MSO VOLUME 260,800

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 2:35:09 PM

Nymex is routed through Globex whih is the problem today.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 2:34:43 PM

Stops are NOT NATIVE TO NYMEX. You must enter a stop limit and put in an auxilliary to get a cushion. IB simulates the stop, when IB is down, you must submit a limt orfer to the exchange.

Keene Little : 9/19/2006 2:34:07 PM

ES 1326.75 is a Fib projection for this leg of the bounce. If we've got lower lows, that should cap this bounce.

Keene Little : 9/19/2006 2:32:20 PM

I'm back. It's looking like a small corrective bounce from the low around noon and that means we'll probably head lower still. The wave count from yesterday's high would look best with another new low (5th wave) which should leave bullish divergences on the short term charts and be a buying opportunity.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 2:32:15 PM

CNBC ... oil accelerating losses into settlement

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 2:30:42 PM

Hmmmm ... if maybe Thailand not a problem? Global travel? Maybe offset by oil's continued weakness?

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 2:29:54 PM

Airline Index (XAL.X) 50.28 +2.04% ... sector winner!

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 2:29:37 PM

Marc are you getting Globex/Nymex quotes?

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 2:29:01 PM

VIX 12.51 +6.19% ... not even close to "14.00" at this point.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 2:28:57 PM

I bet Gold will follow suit.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 2:28:33 PM

Oil to new yearly lows.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 2:27:52 PM

XBD.X 221.47 -1.15% ... session low (220.75) nowhere close to 210.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 2:27:46 PM

IB just announced Globex and Nymex data is back but I still don't see any quotes.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 2:26:52 PM

GS $163.56 +0.20% ... gets green.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 2:26:41 PM

I just bought some QM Nov at 62.05 and IB shuts off. What is going on?

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 2:25:14 PM

Now IB loses Nymex!!!

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 2:25:07 PM

MSFT $26.90 +0.41% ... in a world of its own!

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 2:24:18 PM

They just dumped oil big time. Is this a flush or s there a news item? Watch 62 support (November)

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 2:22:04 PM

QM re-opens close to weekly S1.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 2:21:27 PM

One thing a trader/investor might do is this ...

Set al_rts at any "exit points" where a trader might have cut and run on the Thailand news.

That can then serve as a benchmark and an al_rt to some type of "return to normalcy."

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 2:20:04 PM

Lynne this chart is for you. Here is a perfect example of price moving sideways while MACD rises, which is bearish. Hopefully this one helps and hopefully it cooperates by making new daily lows. :) Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 2:19:45 PM

Applied Materials (AMAT) $17.36 -2.36% ... session low so far has been $17.19.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 2:18:32 PM

Marc I have IB on speed dial.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 2:17:50 PM

I always have a phone number at the ready for my various brokers ... just in case their system goes down at "critical" time and I didn't have a hard stop loss in place.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 2:17:37 PM

SMH found support at 20 dma.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 2:16:47 PM

You can call IB and get out of your position at no charge.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 2:16:17 PM

STill no quotes in IB but at least my position was closed. Whew!!!

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 2:15:55 PM

What's that cosmetic's company with big exposure to Asia? ....

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 2:14:57 PM

Sohu.com (SOHU) $21.65 -2.25% Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 2:14:11 PM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $84.55 -4.96% Link ...

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 2:14:02 PM

Why the #&#*(#(*#& do we not have quotes back on IB. I am getting them on TS.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 2:13:14 PM

Jeff I think you are right that the Thailand issue is becoming rather important.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 2:12:44 PM

EGADS Oil wasn't supposed to revisit yearly lows yet. It needs to burn off the oversold RSI first. EGADS!

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 2:11:28 PM

* OCT. CRUDE LAST DOWN $1.70, OR 2.7%, AT $62.10/BRL

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 2:10:47 PM

Forex Currency (screen capture) at this Link

Analysis: Currency markets deem what's going on in Thailand rather important.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 2:09:39 PM

I took a long YM position just to be safe but as Denise says better to short than long (referring to ES that is).

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 2:06:40 PM


Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 2:06:11 PM

Jane, Tabs ... what's that "oil tracker?"

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 2:05:56 PM

SLV $107.89 -3.41% .... still live here.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 2:05:32 PM

GLD $57.02 -2.07% ... approx. $570.20

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 2:05:03 PM

I just spoke to some Thai friends. They consider it good news, the PM was very corrupt and everyone wants him out. So much for worries.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 2:04:58 PM

My charts are reporting GLobex data but not IB.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 2:02:15 PM

Remmber that Asians buy gold when they get worried. The low today was a good place to get scalp long or at least cover shorts.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 2:00:16 PM

Today's Remarks from Thailand's Prime Minister: The Future of Democracy in Asia at this Link

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 1:59:19 PM

Ok who is short or long a Globex futures and has their heart pumping just a little more now. This is why it is so important to have a plan in place. If YM gets above 11590 I will take a long to counter my ES short - that I just put on.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 1:57:52 PM

QQQQ has strong support at 39.43, so if we get one more flush there tomorrow, you might want to think scalp long. But keep in mind, there is risk to NQ 1598 at some point this week, and that would mean QQQQ 39.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 1:56:46 PM

If short ES you may want to take a YM long to counter balance the Globex glitch!

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 1:56:37 PM

Not much, but analyst seems to think it "very negative."

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 1:55:17 PM

Reuters Thailand Story ... Some analysis from an economist at Danske Bank ... Link

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 1:55:08 PM

Oh no Globex Market data is unavailable - this from IB.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 1:54:53 PM

Seems like an IB problem.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 1:53:56 PM

Cover yourself with YM right away.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 1:53:33 PM

Globex just died. Jeez, guys.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 1:52:51 PM

As far as gold, 580 is key and seems to be hlding. A break below sets up test of 577 and 568. But for now, 580 holds. PPI is in contradiction to CPI, so there wil still remain some inflation worries if Feds stand pat.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 1:51:37 PM

US Household Net Worth Up 0.1% To $53.33 Tln In 2Q

DJ- U.S. households' total net worth continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace than the previous quarter, advancing 0.1% to $53.33 trillion, the Federal Reserve said Tuesday.

The Fed's quarterly "flow of funds" data also showed U.S. nonfinancial debt grew at a 6.4% annual growth rate in the second quarter, the slowest growth since the first quarter of 2002, when the rate was 6.3%.

The second quarter 2006 gain in nonfinancial debt was down from a revised 9.5% annual pace in the first quarter, initially reported as a 11.0% growth rate.

The nonfinancial debt category excludes borrowing by banks, credit unions and other financial firms.

"The deceleration in domestic nonfinancial debt was accounted for by decreased borrowing by all sectors except state and local governments," the Fed said.

The federal government's debt shrank at a 2.4% rate in the second quarter, the first decline since the second quarter of 2001, when it fell by 10.3%. The drop in government debt was well below the 11.3% growth rate in the previous quarter and below the 0.6% rate from a year earlier.

Gains in household net worth marked the 15th consecutive quarterly increase, according to the Fed. The $53.33 trillion posted in the latest quarter was up from the revised first quarter figure of $53.27 trillion.

Household net worth in the second quarter fell slightly to about 5.60 times disposable personal income, from a revised first-quarter level of about 5.67 times income. Household net worth is a measure of total assets, such as houses and pensions, minus total liabilities, such as mortgages and credit card debt.

In the first quarter, U.S. household debt dipped to an 9.1% annual pace from 9.6% the previous quarter, and within that category home mortgage growth ticked down to a 9.0% annual growth pace from 10.8% the quarter before. Second quarter 2006 growth rates for household debt and home mortgages were slower than second-quarter advances in 2005.

The financing gap - the amount of money companies must raise externally to finance their capital expenditures - was $43.2 billion in the quarter, an increase from negative $2.7 billion in 2006's first quarter and negative $220.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2005.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 1:51:25 PM

Tab, I hear you, but when I trade oil and new contracts come into play I have noticed over the years that they will sometimes make the new contract do a close test of the previous one. Since weekly S1 is at 62, my guess is that if we test 62, it will hold. Inventories tomorrow should also support a floor.

Tab Gilles : 9/19/2006 1:47:12 PM

Important yes...so is Iran's President at the UN...yet oil and gold are declining.

I believe Fed actions to be more significant.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 1:47:03 PM

TRIN is at 1.53!

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 1:46:52 PM

VIX is making new daily lows and AD volume making new daily lows is telling me we have further to go.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 1:46:25 PM

I really don't see any bullishness to tell me we have a bottom yet.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 1:45:19 PM

Thai Army Commander Declares Martial Law

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 1:45:00 PM

Thai Military Revokes Thai Constitution

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 1:43:56 PM

Tab ... FYI there has been rumors of a coup attempt in Thailand.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 1:42:09 PM

U.S. Energy (USEG) $3.54 -3.80% .... no bid for "nuclear" .... noted ESLR $8.48 -6.50% too.

For those of you trying to catch a bottom in oil.

Tab Gilles : 9/19/2006 1:40:59 PM

Everyone is nervous today...with the Fed meeting tomorrow. I see similarities to this period back in '04, thus far...

Will the Fed continue to hold? Will they cut rates next year? Looking at the chart is telling me to hold bullish positions in UOPIX & UAPIX.

Oil is tracking lower once again $60 is my target. Like the XLE which I have on the radar watch list.

$NDX/$NASI... Link Link Link XLE... Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 1:32:25 PM

Israeli Media Report Explosion In Tel Aviv

An explosion was heard in central Tel Aviv Tuesday, the police said.

The blast did not appear to be a terror attack.

Two men were spotted driving away from the scene of the blast on motorcycles, and the attack appeared to be of a criminal nature, police spokesman Micky Rosenfeld said.

No injuries were reported, police said.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 1:30:54 PM

Thai Deputy PM, Defense Minister Arrested - Military Source

DJ- The Thai military Tuesday arrested two key government leaders in the wake of their coup bid against Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra

The coup makers arrested Deputy Prime Minister Chitchai Wannasathit and Defense Minister Thammarak Isaragura na Ayuthaya - two close loyalists of Thaksin - and that Chitchai agreed to resign, according to an army general, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The same general said Army Commander-in-Chief Gen. Sondhi Boonyaratkalin had used the military to take over power from the prime minister.

In a vain attempt to stave off the coup attempt, Thaksin had ordered Sondhi to report to Chitchai immediately, effectively dismissing him from his military duties. Thaksin told of his move when he declared a state of emergency for Bangkok. Thaksin made the announcement from New York, where he was attending the U.N.'s General Assembly.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 1:28:14 PM

62.725 is nxext support and 62.025 is what they might even go for if 63 does not hols. That would be a double bottom off October contract. They do that sometimes.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 1:29:19 PM

Thailand : Several Hundred Soldiers Deployed At Thai Govt Buildings

Soldiers Also Deployed At Major Bangkok Intersections

Tanks Block Area Around Thai PM's Office

DJ- Armored units of the Thai military blocked the area around Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra offices with tanks, witnesses said Tuesday.

Meanwhile, several hundred soldiers were deployed at keys points in the capital of Bangkok, including government installations and major intersections, witnesses said.

At the same time, Thaksin - now abroad on a visit to New York - declared a state of emergency.

"The prime minister with the approval of the cabinet declares serious emergency law in Bangkok from now on" Thaksin said on Channel 9 from New York. He said he was ordering the transfer of the nation's army chief to work in the prime minister's office, effectively suspending him from his military duties.

Rumors of a military coup swept the Thai capital after an army-owned television station suspended regular programming and played patriotic songs.

Army-owned TV channel 5 interrupted regular broadcasts with patriotic music and showed pictures of the king. At least some radio and television stations monitored in Bangkok suspended programming.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 1:26:51 PM

Darn, stop was too tight. I might scalp in and out, but no time to typ.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 1:24:11 PM

out, -.05. no go.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 1:18:59 PM

01:05 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 1:17:41 PM

BTW folks AD line is -1338.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 1:15:00 PM

Not a bad idea to hold QM 63, stop 62.95 now. If you want, scalp in and out, but we did a test of Friday lows with a bullish divergence. You choose, in any case +.15 now. Next R is 63.35, then 63.55, then 63.65.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 1:13:19 PM

There is ES's test of daily lows and I see the VIX is also testing its daily highs. AD volume making new daily lows may be suggesting ES's lows will not hold but I will let the VIX tell me for sure.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 1:13:19 PM

01:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 1:09:12 PM

I'm thinking ES may retest its daily lows and if it does watch the VIX to see if tests its daily highs and if it does not then we may have a temporary bottom. Then keep your eye on the MACD and how it reacts if ES tests daily lows. Does it make a test as well or does it make a higher low. These clues could tell you that daily lows may be in.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 1:08:32 PM

raise to 62.95, only risking .05.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 1:07:07 PM

Stop was on last and it held up. We need to stay above 63 now, or you should scalp out.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 1:05:24 PM

AD volume is saying you should still not be thinking long. VIX is following ES and not giving anything bullish signs at all.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 1:03:55 PM

Dateline CNN - NASA has delayed tomorrow's landing of the space shuttle Atlantis after engineers spotted a mystery object outside the shuttle; weather at the Florida landing site also is a concern.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 1:04:01 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link ...

Traders/investors should KNOW what gains/losses have been realized ... check current capital at risk and then manage the account accordingly.

Excluding SLV Short, My MM profiles of OPEN Trades has MAXIMUM CAPITAL AT RISK of $980 (roughly 10% of $10,000 initial capital account)

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 1:01:15 PM

Stop 62.925.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 1:00:37 PM

Scalp long QM 63 target is 63.35.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 12:52:46 PM

Going through some alerts I had set ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 12:52:13 PM

QM November alert! ... $63.70 ... "QM Fulcrum" ... see yesterday's 10:41:01 AM post.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 12:51:19 PM

On 07/19/06 when YHOO gapped down from $32.24 to $26.41 .... dx00y fell notably from 87.12 to close 86.37.

Analysis: Today's market action looks Thailand related.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 12:48:52 PM

There should be some buyers at 63 oil here, although there is risk to 62.775, but worth a scalp.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 12:48:40 PM

Dollar Index (dx00y) has moved above WEEKLY Pivot/Monthly R1.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 12:46:32 PM

My target of ES 1323.75 was within .50 of low. I got you out at 1324.25, so that is good enough. But next time, I should stick to my analysis and get that extra .50...

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 12:44:02 PM

If this doesn't hold, and it doesn't look good, QQQQ next support would be 39.43. That could be a place to try a long, but keep in mind that it would be counter-trend. ES has risk below 1323 to 1310 and NQ below 1331 to 1598. Oil needs to get back aboev 63.60, or we could test 62.85.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 12:40:35 PM

Amex Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 297.89 -2.91% ... undercuts yesterday's lows.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 12:39:03 PM

November Crude Oil getting whacked ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 12:34:21 PM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $10.01 -1.37% ... bid/ask $10.00 x $10.08 (has paid consistent $0.075/monthly dividend).

While I do not expect it to trade $9.00, I'd buy it with a partial if it does.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 12:30:20 PM

My MM Trade Blotter Update (alert) ... of today's CLOSED trades (09/19/06) and still OPEN Positions at this Link

OPEN "Stop Out" prices based on fast market.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 12:26:04 PM

They will actually tag my 1323.75 target, but no regrets.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 12:25:07 PM

We could head much lower in the coming days, but weekly PP and trend support is too close for comfort. Nevertheless, internals are terrible and it looks ike a short the rallies environment. But beware of oil which has droped and bulls could latch on to that one last time.

Keene Little : 9/19/2006 12:24:11 PM

I've got to step away for a couple of hours but should be back well before the close. See you in a few.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 12:25:26 PM

Back. 1324.25 is close enough and you should be out. That's ES +11 on the trade, as I said don't get greedy.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 12:23:33 PM

iShares Silver (SLV) $109.00 -2.41% ....

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 12:18:16 PM

Found support at 1324.50 so out of my short.

Keene Little : 9/19/2006 12:17:22 PM

ES Fib target of 1324.75 has been tagged so that could be it. But it looks like the pattern needs a little bit more downside. A small bounce and new low could do it and that would probably get it closer to Marc's target.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 12:16:35 PM

You should book profits soon. We are hitting support zones, even though it looks like we could go lower, but you can always re-enter on a bounce. I have to step away.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 12:16:23 PM

AD volume making new daily lows as VIX is making new daily highs. Although it was a battle earlier, the bears are firmly in control now.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 12:10:09 PM

Lowering stop to 1328.50. I don't want my stop too close.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 12:08:34 PM

Oil reversing gains ... somebody said something about not trading October contract yesterday, just in case of a geopolitical event. October contract still trading, but if long/short understand that contract expires tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 12:06:30 PM

EPP, EWM, EWW, EWT, EWS (Various Asian market ETFs)

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 12:05:32 PM

And let this be a lesson ... know your Asian geography!

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 12:03:55 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The net worth of U.S. households increased 0.1% in the second quarter to $53.3 trillion, the slowest gain in nearly four years, the Federal Reserve said Tuesday.

After adjusting for inflation, net worth fell in the quarter.

Net worth had increased 13% in 2003, 9.7% in 2004 and 8.5% in 2005.

Net worth is calculated by subtracted liabilities from assets.

Household assets grew by $332 billion to $66 trillion in the second quarter, while liabilities increased by $278 billion to $12.7 trillion. The value of real estate holdings increased by $402 billion, but the value of financial assets fell by $128 billion. The value of corporate equities and mutual-fund shares dropped by $253 billion.

Household net worth dipped to 5.60 times disposable income from 5.67 times in the first quarter. Owners' equity in their real estate fell to a record low 54.1% of market value from 54.4% in the first quarter and nearly 58% in 2000

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 12:02:37 PM

AD long as the AD volume is making new daily lows then I am OK in my short.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 12:02:35 PM

12:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 12:02:03 PM


Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 12:01:12 PM

NQ hit 1632 target.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 11:58:56 AM

If in the ES short from 1335.25 profiled yesterday, lower your stop to 1330.75. Exit target is still 1323.75, but feel free to take some off if you wish.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 11:58:15 AM

And let this be a lesson ... always have a plan in place to PROTECT profits!

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 11:55:57 AM

Now I need to start looking for ES's support because its PDL has broken. Yesterday I was able to bail on my long at PDH but the PDR is not available to me today.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 11:55:38 AM

Swing trade sell call alert ... sell the remaining Microsoft MSFT Jan $22 Call (MQF-AQ) at the bid of $5.10

MSFT $26.78 -0.03% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 11:54:54 AM

This is a lesson: don't follow the herd when the semis are not in the game. I have been pounding this for days, even got a few insults, but I am quite happy to see that 15 years of market behavior has not changed and GSO is not a leading indicator. SOX is.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 11:54:13 AM

Lower stop on my ES short to 1330.50.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 11:53:27 AM

WSJ alert - Yahoo shares tumble 9% as CEO Terry Semel warns online advertising growth is slowing in some categories.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 11:52:34 AM

Evergreen Solar (ESLR) $8.75 -3.52% ... challenges monthly lows.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 11:51:40 AM

My target on NQ has been around 1632. So ES 1323.75, NQ 1632. That should hold, although I am looking after a bounce to get QQQQ down to 39.45 this week.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 11:51:17 AM

Then short it Marc .... MM Profiles has exited AMAT calls.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 11:50:36 AM

SOX down 2.45%

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 11:50:20 AM

SMH down 2.10%. This could be a little more serious than bulls think.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 11:50:20 AM

DJ-(update)Thai Prime Minister Declares State Of Emergency

Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has declared a state of emergency as coup rumors swept Bangkok, according to reports Tuesday.

Earlier, an Army-owned television station suspended its regular programming.

Cable News Network, citing eyewitnesses, reported that about 10 tanks were heading into central Bangkok near the government area.

Thaksin is currently in New York attending the United Nations General Assembly.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 11:48:45 AM

QQQQ has risk to 39.45 if 39.90 is sold.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 11:48:45 AM


Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 11:47:51 AM

Swing trade short cover partial alert let's cover 1/4 positon (that from 09/12/06) in the Ishares Silver (SLV) here at $109.50 -2.00%.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 11:44:43 AM

I am short ES here with a wide stop at 1332.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 11:43:53 AM

Now the VIX confirms

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 11:43:13 AM

ES's new daily lows so far are not been confirmed by VIX new daily highs. Sometimes the VIX is slow but I would not be selling those lows until I see the VIX confirm.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 11:43:11 AM

Hmm. Oriental money could go to gold if there are problems over there. They usually do that, we'll see.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 11:40:51 AM

Swing trade call sell alert ... one (1) of the IWM Jan $71 Calls (DIW-AS) at the bid of $4.30 ... IWM $71.89 -1.03% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 11:39:35 AM

Swing trade call sell alert ... ANQ-AC at the bid of $2.95 ... AMAT $17.44 -1.91%

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 11:39:12 AM

Remember, ES 1322/1324, don't get greedy if we get there.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 11:38:32 AM

10 Tanks Heading Into Central Bangkok -CNN

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 11:38:22 AM

QQQQ 40 is gone as is the 200 dma.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 11:38:16 AM

CNN- Thai Army-Owned TV Suspends Programming Amid Coup Rumors

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 11:37:46 AM

Thai Prime Minister Calls State Of Emergency ... SPX 1,317.35

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 11:35:49 AM

WSJ alert - Thailand's Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has called a state of emergency as coup rumors swept Bangkok.

More details are expected shortly.

Earlier in the day, Mr. Thaksin said that he may step down as leader of the country after upcoming elections, but he will remain at the helm of his party, despite calls for him to give up the post.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 11:35:40 AM

Watch ES 1329.50.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 11:35:28 AM

Don't even think long. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 11:33:34 AM

Bloomberg - Micron fell 52 cents to $17.61. The stock is expensive after price gains over the last several months, wrote Citigroup analyst Glen Yeung. He cut the stock to "hold" from "buy" and said that dynamic random access memory chip prices are heading into a seasonally weak period and inventories are building. Dow Jones & Co., publisher of The Wall Street Journal, cut its forecast for third-quarter earnings because of declining ad revenue at the paper. Profit will be as much as 11 cents a share, excluding a tax benefit of about 7 cents and severance costs of 1 cent. It earlier forecast per-share profit in the "low teens." The shares fell $1.37 to $32.50. ImClone Systems Inc. plunged $1.89 to $28.51. The biotechnology company lost a court ruling that may result in the company's paying royalties on its experimental cancer drug Erbitux to an Israeli research institute. Billionaire financier Carl Icahn is also poised to gain control of one-third of ImClone's board and push to replace management. ImClone investors will vote on his board appointment at the company's annual meeting tomorrow. Akamai Technologies Inc., whose programs accelerate Web- page loading and electronic commerce, declined $1.32 to $45.03. Piper Jaffray & Co. cut the shares to "market perform" from "outperform." Link

Keene Little : 9/19/2006 11:32:38 AM

That spike down is evidence that we've got some distribution going on--each little bounce now is being sold into. But I agree with Marc here--we should be looking only for scalps to the short side. I don't think this market is done rallying.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 11:31:18 AM

How could QQQQ stay up much longer with SOX and SMH down over 1%. There is justice. ES 1324 looks a little more real every minute.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 11:27:42 AM

If you believe my QM scenario I put on the table this morning then here is a bullish chart to consider. Notice the very nice and clear bullish MACD and RSI divergences. I think HAL has a chance of making it all the way back to the 50EMA, however, I would wait for the MACD to cross before I put on any long positions. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 11:26:35 AM

Gold will be back at 700 by year end and I am a buyer on pullbacks. It's a fundamental play on dollar per ounce versus Dow Jones.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 11:24:47 AM

Another Vista play, MU, is cut by Citigroup and is down over 2%. You have to take notice: INTC cut, Seagate cut, Western Digital cut, MU cut. These are all Vista plays. If they cut NVDA, it's over.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 11:21:09 AM

I expect Gold will make new yearly lows this month, if not today the way it is falling.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 11:20:56 AM

If Friday lows break on gold, next support would be 568. But first, let's see what happens at 580/582.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 11:19:45 AM

On the chart of the US $ notice also the overbot RSI and how it is getting burned off by a sideways move. This is bullish.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 11:18:32 AM

Here is a bullish chart and should be a huge reason to question long positions in Gold. The neutral triangle broke to the upside and all retracements have been supported by the 50EMA. MACD and RSI confirm each and every bullish move. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 11:17:11 AM

YG is in a precarious position, next support is 580/582 if 585.90 can't be recouped. ECB selling is still not over and they are waiting for rallies until their deadline of 9/26 to keep offloading. It will end and gold will take off, but for now, that is the paradigm.

Keene Little : 9/19/2006 11:16:48 AM

YM 11600 held on the nose so now we get to see what kind of bounce develops. Watch the ES downtrend line from mid day yesterday. It's currently near 1333 and dropping and a test of it would be a retest of its recently broken uptrend line from Sept 11th that I showed this morning (8:26). If the bounce makes it up to that level and you see some sell signals developing I'd try a short there.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 11:16:12 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 11:04:29 AM

This market is not ready to keel over, but watch out for the pre-lunch shifts.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 11:03:54 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 10:57:36 AM

On days like this you need to keep a very close eye on the PDRs. If neither the bulls nor the bears have a clear advantage those ranges will be defended. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 10:54:58 AM


DJ- World's largest toy maker unveils 'TMX Elmo,' a new version of the popular plush toy that writhes on the floor and clutches its belly when tickled.

MAT $19.378 -0.46% Link

Elmo photo Link

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 10:53:16 AM

VIX is now on the bears bandwagon making new daily highs. All internals are now aligned in the bears corner.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 10:52:39 AM

SMH way down. INTC hit 19.35 support.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 10:52:21 AM

Stand off at QQQQ 40 but note that most indices are below 5 dma.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 10:51:42 AM

Gold is breaking its overnight low and is making a series of lower lows and highs.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 10:47:17 AM


DJ- Higher housing costs lift Canada's monthly consumer-price index 0.2% in August, compared with expectations for a 0.1% rise. Cheaper gasoline slows the yearly gain to 2.1%, the smallest rise in nine months and meeting estimates.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 10:44:32 AM


DJ- Boston Properties and SL Green Realty are upgraded to overweight and Apartment Investment & Management is upped to equal weight. General Growth Properties is downgraded to equal weight.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 10:43:01 AM

Dollar Index (dx00y) 85.67 -0.16% ....

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 10:40:17 AM

iShares Silver (SLV) $109.81 -1.69% ...

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 10:39:00 AM

December min-Silver (yg06z) 11.09 -1.78% ... also back below its 200-day SMA. WEEKLY Pivot right here.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 10:37:18 AM

BIIIIG round of buying this morning for treasuries ... 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) down 6.1 bp at 4.749% and bold looking move back below its 200-day SMA and WEEKLY S1 as well.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 10:33:06 AM

Lots of orders at QQQQ 40, including sell-stops and buys.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 10:31:13 AM

Homebuilders -2.56% and Gold Bugs -1.54% and Semiconductors -1.38%

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 10:28:53 AM

Is the 3 days love affair of QQQQ with 40 over? Hard to say with so many still bullish ahead of the Feds, and they could be right. This is why you can't get greedy on pullbacks. This is a good market to scalp in and out while establishing a position. But as long as VXN stays above 18.35, it will be tough for bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 10:27:12 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and watch list found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 10:26:04 AM

I watch market depth on days like this.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 10:25:34 AM

Hedge funds are under so much pressure to perform before earnings, that it makes for a difficult market to trade.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 10:23:24 AM

EGADS or as Jeff says Good Gravy - TRIN is falling as the AD line and Volume are falling. This should be the other way around for clear direction.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 10:23:08 AM

But I would not be surprised to see a read of 1323.75. Just know that that area will see support.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 10:22:18 AM

We're close on that Keene. I think a little lower than 1325, but traders should not get greedy and exit at 1324 or so if it comes.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 10:21:36 AM


DJ- National chain store sales are unchanged in first three weeks of September versus previous month, according to Redbook Research. International Council of Shopping Centers-UBS chain store sales index falls 1.1% in latest week.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 10:21:34 AM

These is not the time to be long. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 10:21:15 AM

I kept driving in the fact that the SOX and SMH were not performing as well on a relative basis and I might finally get some vindication.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 10:19:29 AM

Target for ES short is still 1323.75.

Keene Little : 9/19/2006 10:19:08 AM

While YM 11600 might be a support level I don't see good support for ES until closer to 1325. That would take YM down to about 11565 so watch for that possibility.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 10:19:03 AM

QQQQ loses 200 dma. If lows don't hold, it will vist 1632/1635 soon. ES 1328 support is next, followed by 1323 which has very large support.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 10:18:20 AM

YM 11,614 ... slips below MONTHLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 10:17:33 AM


DJ- Sony's image suffers another blow after Toshiba says it will recall 340,000 Sony-made batteries used in its laptop personal computers. Toshiba recall comes on the heels of huge recalls of Sony-made batteries by Dell and Apple.

SNE $41.85 -1.01% Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 10:17:28 AM

QM hits 65. If Friday was not the bottom, then basta.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 10:16:59 AM

Support is being made by a smaller group of stocks everyday.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 10:13:22 AM


DJ- Auto maker reduces 2H production by 135,000 vehicles, making it 10% lower than in 2005, and says it will address noncompetitive health-care costs. It also will accrue some 'upfront costs,' but doesn't say when it will take the charges.

DCX $49.29 +0.22% Link

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 10:14:51 AM

AD line below 0. AD volume below 0. TRIN is 1.22. The bears have the ball but I'm not sure for how long because the VIX is not confirming the bearishness.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 10:11:25 AM


Hedge fund Amaranth's assets tumble by some 50% this month after its energy-trading desk loses $5 billion in about a week on natural-gas bets. The Connecticut-based firm says it is liquidating its natural-gas exposure.

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 10:10:21 AM


DJ- Cellphone maker will pay $15 a share for Symbol Tech. That is a 2.2% premium to the closing price yesterday, when shares jumped 15% as renewed reports of a sale emerged over the weekend. Motorola doesn't plan to issue debt to fund the acquisition.

MOT $24.93 -0.08% Link

SBL $14.58 +0.06% Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/19/2006 10:03:33 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 10:00:52 AM

Use the book.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 9:54:56 AM

Once again, QQQQ holds 200 dma while the SOX is underperforming. This cannot last forever.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 10:14:45 AM

The bears are stronger this morning than they were yesterday but the you can feel the bulls putting up a fight. The result is no clear direction.

Keene Little : 9/19/2006 9:46:25 AM

The premarket push higher in the futures was certainly taken advantage of by some in order to sell off some of their inventory. Notice I didn't say it was manipulated higher since that would imply there are some who are devious and I would never imply such a thing (cough). YM is working its way down to 11600 so watch for potential support there.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 9:41:13 AM

AD line -598 and the bears are getting stronger.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 9:40:51 AM

TRIN makes a daily high of 1.33 - now this is different from yesteday. Yesterday the TRIN stayed in a very narrow bullish range.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 9:39:42 AM


Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 9:38:32 AM



Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 9:35:38 AM

VIX opens mid point to its PDR.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 9:35:21 AM

TRIN opens above its PDR but I need the first 5 minute out of the way before you can get a good reading on the TRIN.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 9:34:39 AM

AD line is a neutral -41 and AD volume 0 - this is just like yesterday morning.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 9:33:27 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- New construction on U.S. homes was weaker than expected in August as builders adjusted to a rapidly collapsing market.

U.S. housing starts fell 6% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.665 million, the lowest since April 2003, the Commerce Department estimated Tuesday.

Housing starts have fallen in six of the past seven months.

Building permits, meanwhile, fell 2.3% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.722 million, the lowest since August 2002. Permits have fallen seven months in a row, as builders adjust to a significantly weaker sales market.

The figures were weaker than expected by Wall Street economists. According to the MarketWatch survey, housing starts were expected to sink about 2.5% to 1.75 million, while permits were expected to drop 1.6% to 1.74 million.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 9:22:16 AM

Along with my QM scenario I see SU retracing back to the 50EMA and then testing its yearly lows again but with a bullish MACD and RSI divergence.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 9:20:06 AM

Let me show you an excellent example of bearishness creeping into a market. Here is the chart of Suncor (SU) up until August 14th. Bear Wedge, MACD and RSI divergences. Link

Here is SU today. Link

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 9:16:22 AM

I am bullish on the equity markets but still think we have transitioned into a bear market that will become visible before the end of the year so look at this chart with this in mind - I am looking for bearishness to start creeping into the market. And lo and behold I have found it. Link

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 9:10:55 AM

Here is my story on QM - actaully the same as yesterday but since TS is charting the Nov contract the numbers are a tad different. I originally thought QM would retrace back to the resistance from February and March and then make a new yearly low but that level would not be enough to burn off the oversold RSI so I think the May/June resistance would be a better spot to find resistance and then retest yearly lows. If this should happen then I suspect the MACD and RSI would both make higher lows and at that point we will see the bottom in QM. I have seen this type of pattern many many times but I'm not sure it will play out the same in a commodity with totally different fundamentals. Link

Keene Little : 9/19/2006 8:58:33 AM

With the core PPI down 0.4% I wonder how long it will be before the R word is discussed, and the need for the Fed to start lowering rates.

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 8:56:56 AM

As usually the commodities didn't react to the PPI data but Tbonds did. Bond traders liked the data as much as equity traders and brought the Tbonds beyond its PDH.

TS is now reporting the QM November contract. As you can see it was in a neutral range overnight.

Gold broke its PDH as soon as it opened but has been making lower lows and highs every since.

Natural Gas was also neutral overnight. Link

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 8:57:06 AM

What could I say that these images do not show - the markets liked the PPI data! Link

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 8:46:28 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. wholesale prices were remarkably tame in August, the Labor Department reported Tuesday.

U.S. producer prices rose by a smaller-than-expected 0.1% in August.

The core rate of the producer price index fell 0.4%, the largest drop since April 2003 and the first two-month decline since late 2002. Read full government report.

The tame inflation report was unexpected. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected a 0.3% gain in the August PPI and 0.2% rise in the core rate.

Energy prices moderated in August, rising 0.3% after a 1.3% gain in July. This was the smallest increase since February.

Food prices jumped 1.4% after a 0.3% decline in the previous month. But consumer goods other that food and energy fell 0.5% in August, and capital equipment prices fell 0.3%.

The tame inflation reports fits into economists' expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at 5.25% for the second straight meeting on Wednesday after 17 consecutive quarter-point rate hikes.

Keene Little : 9/19/2006 8:45:28 AM

The 30-min chart of YM shows a parallel down-channel is progress which looks very much like a bull flag here. Resistance is at 11668 which is the top of the down-channel and its previously broken uptrend line. We should see another drop back down to the bottom of the channel which gives us the 11600 area for a target. Link

Jane Fox : 9/19/2006 8:41:17 AM

Dateline WSJ - Housing starts fell for the fifth time in the past six months, dropping 6.0% in August. Meanwhile, the producer price index rose by 0.1% last month.

Keene Little : 9/19/2006 8:38:00 AM

Nice bounce in the futures off the PPI data. Now we'll have to see if it holds or is instead just a kneejerk response.

Keene Little : 9/19/2006 8:26:49 AM

I had mentioned late yesterday that the corrective bounce in the afternoon looked like a setup for a swift drop Tuesday morning. With the futures down this morning, and the overnight low below the lows of the past 2 days, it looks like we might get that drop now. I've got a Fib projection for the next leg down at ES 1324.75 which is at the lows of last Thursday's consolidation. That's also where the 30-min 100/130 moving averages are located so it would be a good spot to find support. Link

As you can see by the broken uptrend lines, each time one is broken it acts as resistance on a retest. Watch for that to happen again, maybe, as an opportunity to scalp a short today (would be around ES 1331-1332). The larger pattern is still not clear although the pullback/consolidation since last Friday clearly looks corrective and that could mean the scenario I've shown before is playing out (using SPX 120-min chart here). Link

I've stretched out the timeframe, as compared to the chart I showed yesterday, for this to play out. If we continue to consolidate in a sideways/down move then we could see a rally into October (which would frustrate the heck out of the bears). Bears need to be patient. If the pattern plays out in this way I'll be loading up on short positions big time at that new market high. It should be the mother of all bull traps. In the meantime just keep scalping small moves until the pattern clears up.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/19/2006 4:59:10 AM

ES downside potential target 1323/1324, NQ 1533/1535.

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