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Jeff Bailey : 9/23/2006 12:41:37 AM

Friday's Internals from Investertech.com at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 11:49:08 PM

Federal Court Judge To Rule On Tobacco Case Monday

DJ- A federal court judge is expected to rule Monday on whether to grant class-action certification to a racketeering lawsuit filed against Philip Morris USA and several other light cigarette makers, according to Morgan Stanley tobacco industry analyst David Adelman, who quoted "an industry source."

An attorney for one of the tobacco companies later confirmed that Judge Jack Weinstein notified the parties involved in the case Friday that he would rule on the matter Monday.

Weinstein will issue his opinion in a Brooklyn courthouse at 10 a.m. EDT Monday, Adelman said.

Weinstein held a hearing in the case, which is known as Schwab for its lead plaintiff Barbara Schwab, on Sept. 13. The lawsuit, filed in 2004, accuses tobacco companies of defrauding smokers into thinking cigarette brands labeled "light" or "low tar" were safer than regular cigarettes when they are not. The plaintiffs allege the tobacco companies earned as much as $200 billion in profits through this deception.

Lawyers representing the smokers are seeking to have the case consolidated so the smokers could sue as one large group.

However, the tobacco industry argued that the case should not be certified. Tobacco company attorneys argue that it is impossible to know what information the smokers relied on in their decision to smoke cigarettes. The lawyers also believe the case does not meet statute of limitation requirements.

In addition to Altria Group Inc.'s (MO) Philip Morris USA, the defendants in the case include Reynolds American Inc.'s (RAI) R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Co., Loews Corp.'s (LTR) Lorillard Tobacco unit, Vector Group Ltd.'s (VGR) Liggett Group, and British American Tobacco PLC's (BTI) British American Tobacco (Investments) Ltd.

Tobacco investors are watching the case closely as it is one of the last large legal risks facing the tobacco industry. For investors of Altria, the case also is being watched for any implications it could have on the company's plans to spin off its 88% stake in Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT). The timing of the spin-off has not yet been announced. However, some company watchers suspect Altria's board is waiting on a ruling in the Schwab case before going ahead with its corporate restructuring plans.

An Altria spokeswoman declined to comment.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 11:24:43 PM

Wow! NDX +2.70% while the SMH -2.17% for the month.

For those that may have been missing my posts over the years, the NDX/QQQQ is a cap-weighted index.

NDX/QQQQ "Top 50 weighted" components at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 10:04:52 PM

Weekly/Monthly Index Pivot Matrix found at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 9/22/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 9:46:50 PM

Hey Marc! WEEKLY S1 for NDX ... 1,602.45.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 9:14:24 PM

Tip for Life! ... I would hope all traders review what they did wrong and what they did right based on technicals, fundamentals, scenarios, etc..

If you get on a loosing streek (like I have in the past), STOP what you're doing! You might be doing something wrong, or missing something! Review it and make the correction.

If your doing something right, keep doing it, until it becomes wrong.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 9:02:04 PM

For the week ...

INDU -0.21%

SPX -0.24%

OEX +0.06%

NDX -0.76%

NYSE -0.34%

COMPX -0.84%

RUT.X -1.16%.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 9:02:00 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Today's Activity

Continue to build the foundation for the end of year rally. (in some markets, sectors, stocks)

Trade Blotter of CLOSED trades and current OPEN profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 9:01:55 PM

Hey Marc ... I just "follow the herd." That's why I was pointing out the GSO.X.

There's no doubt the NQ/NDX/QQQQ will be impacted by semiconductor trade and that's widely known/followed. Especially from the psychological standpoint of market dynamics.

My GSO.X was "next level" observations of how and what was creating your, and perhaps others confusion on 09/13/06.

I would hope that type of observation isn't considered to be a dissenting view.

All I did was ask myself "why" is the NQ trading strong despite semiconductor's seeming lagging after a recent strong advance?

Only when a trader/investor asks the question, then looks for a possible answer could they understand why the NQ/QQQQ/NDX just made a multi-month highs on Thursday.

But with 20 trades a day, its tough to see all that is going on in the market. That's what I'm here for!

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 6:19:37 PM

I think readers are very happy to have a dissenting view to yours or anybody else's for that matter. I have a free flowing style of thought while I type (and do about 20 trades a day), so I really don't need to get into what I did wrong or right. I have been wrong many times, but I do know when to be careful, and this week certainly qualified.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 6:20:14 PM

Jeff, the point was not to daytraders but to option investors and to protect them from taking on long postions when the rally was not including the SOX on a relative basis. The GSO will not make a tech rally last without the SOX. That's all. No big deal. QQQQ closed the week right where it closed last week, so if you bought calls, you are not ahead due to time erosion. And if you bought INTC, TXN and other semi stocks (yes even AMAT), you are underwater.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 6:04:11 PM

Marc: Per your 02:24:40 post ... It was I that was pointing out the GSO was the "leading" group for NQ/QQQQ/NDX while you were focused on the SOX/SMH as the NQ continued to advance.

Hopefully I saved some day trade shorts from some losses that may not have been knowledgeable on how the NQ/QQQQ/NDX is weighted.

MM traders following that very analysis (see my trade blotters) exited AMAT calls for a decent 34.09% gain (08/28 to 09/19)! And the MSFT Calls 08/18/06 with exits 09/18 and 09/19 for +26.83% and +24.39% gains.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 5:13:51 PM

Ex-Halliburton Employee Calls For Bribery Probe of Company

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 5:10:17 PM

S&P 500 Price/Earnings Ratio at 16.80%, Down from 16.84%

DJ- The price/earnings ratio of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index at the close of trading Friday was 16.80.

On Thursday, the ratio ended at 16.84.

The price/earnings ratio for the S&P 500 measures the index's closing level divided by the index's total earnings, as reported under generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP, for the most recent year.

In 2005, the most recently reported year, S&P 500 companies reported earnings of $78.28 a share.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 5:00:54 PM

HPQ ... $35.43 ... haven't seen any "headlines" for some time.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 5:00:54 PM

Thanks Jim, just did that. I have been having no problems with the feed over here on the West coast.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 4:58:58 PM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $10.20 ... closes up 2.00% for the week.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 4:55:41 PM

Small Stocks Down On Persistent Worries About Econ. Outlook DJ- Small stocks slid Friday and marked declines for the week as investors were unable to shake off fears about a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the U.S. economy.

Among small-cap decliners, Phoenix Technologies lost 85 cents, or 16%, to 4.35. The Milpitas, Calif., software company cut its revenue guidance for the fourth quarter and announced plans to reduce its workforce by about 14%.

Angiotech Pharmaceuticals fell 1.17, or 11%, to 9.30 after large-cap Boston Scientific gave a third-quarter outlook that fell below Wall Street expectations, noting it has seen some "retrenchment" in U.S. use of drug-coated cardiac stents. Angiotech makes and supplies the drug used on the stents.

China Technology Development Group soared 1.50, or 48%, to 4.65. The Hong Kong provider of information network security products regained compliance with the Nasdaq Stock Market listing rules and its stock will continue to be listed.

Advanced Analogic Technologies fell 1.51, or 21%, to 5.59. The Sunnyvale, Calif., semiconductor company said it expects a third-quarter net loss of 4 cents to 6 cents a share.

The Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks lost 8.50 points, or 1.17%, to 718.63. For the week, the index fell 1.5% and is up 6.7% this year. The Standard & Poor's SmallCap 600 index declined 3.73, or 1%, to 369.08. For the week, the index lost 1.3% and is up 5.2% for 2006.

"I think the concerns as the week unfolded were (of) an economy that might be slowing more dramatically than market participants had been factoring in," said Leo Grohowski, chief investment officer at U.S. Trust. Small-caps underperformed the broad market on Friday because investors are re-examining the risk exposure in their portfolios and small-caps are deemed to be more risky than large-cap stocks, he said.

Oil equipment and services stocks declined after crude futures fell by more than $1 a barrel to finish below $61. Among small stocks, Newpark Resources lost 8 cents, or 1.6%, to 4.95 on the NYSE and Hydril fell 1.03, or 1.8%, to 54.89.

Staar Surgical, an opthalmic-products company, gained 64 cents, or 9.3%, to 7.54. Jefferies initiated research coverage of the stock with a buy rating, saying the company will likely see impressive near-term growth in its refractive surgery division.

Epix Pharmaceuticals fell 99 cents, or 19%, to 4.32. A Phase 3 trial showed that treatment with the company's PRX-00023 product for generalized anxiety disorder and depression did not induce a statistically significant change in patients with anxiety, but did show a statistically significant improvement in participants with symptoms of depression.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 4:46:10 PM

HPQ ... $35.35 ... some very short-term shorts covering? Maybe they thought Mr. Hurd might resign himself?

Might have been a decent "low risk" and high return type of trade.

Stock really turned around since Mr. Hurd took over as president. He's had a history of doing well and turning companies around.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 4:42:36 PM

Brazil loses 22% of wheat crop from frost.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 4:35:30 PM

I'm not sure who is speaking now. Getting "headlines" off Dow Jones feed.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 4:34:50 PM

HPQ ... $35.20

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 4:34:16 PM

HP's Dunn: Dunn did not propose methods of probe

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 4:32:36 PM

HP's Dunn accepts responsibility to identify leak sources

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 4:31:41 PM

ML ... Ms. Dunn did not select people who conducted probe

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 4:29:47 PM

HPQ ... Morgan Lewis investigator begins his conference

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 4:29:02 PM

HPQ ... Mr. Hurd ends his portion of conference

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 4:26:11 PM

Mr. Hurd ... takes over as Chairman, replacing Ms. Dunn.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 4:25:23 PM

Mr. Hurd ... the actions of a few should not be a reflection of HPQ as a whole

Jim Brown : 9/22/2006 4:25:07 PM

Word to the wise. If you have not lost your Qcharts feed yet you should go find the account maintenance link and sign the new agreement before you are cut off.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 4:24:06 PM

HPQ ... $35.29 extended

Jim Brown : 9/22/2006 4:23:57 PM

Qcharts is converting to Esignal feeds this week and next and the feed has been terrible. They are also switching the account management to the Esignal platform and that is causing other problems. On Wednesday night my charts just quit. When I tried to close and restart it said my password was invalid. I wandered through the various account management screens on the Qcharts website and finally found a link to the Esignal account management. I logged into my account fine but I was forced to then sign a new Esignal service agreement. Once I did that my charts came back and I could log on. The text on the site said users would be receiving an email asking them to go through the process over the next week. Unfortunately they cut off my charts several hours before that email actually arrived. Hopefully once the change to Esignal is complete everything will run better. Esignal has a much better reputation for service than Qcharts. Qcharts had exactly the opposite with a reputation for no customer service.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 4:23:22 PM

Mr. Hurd ... company has accepted the resignation of Ms. Dunn

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 4:22:12 PM

HPQ ... $34.81 extended

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 4:21:47 PM

Mr. Hurd ... Doesn't recall approving tracing tech in email

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 4:21:09 PM

Mr. Hurd ... Attended "brief" meeting where probe discussed.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 4:20:35 PM

Mr. Hurd ... Responsibility of H-P Chmn to pursue leaks

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 4:19:55 PM

Mr. Hurd ... Can't guarantee ever have all facts.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 4:19:05 PM

Mr. Hurd ... Still don't have all the facts

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 4:18:32 PM

Mr. Hurd ... Goal is to be transparent

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 4:16:33 PM

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) $35.11 +0.68% ... $34.99 as CEO Mark Hurd speaks on leak investigation.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 4:10:26 PM

Jim, is it my imagination, or Qchart feed has become quite reliable?

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 4:05:14 PM

Have a great weekend everyone.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 4:03:43 PM

This weekend options trader might want to review the upcoming "October Sector/Index Bullish Seasonalities".(see 03:43:21 , 03:45:28, 03:47:11)

Did history repeat last year? What sectors DID or did NOT repeat?

Put the odds in a BULL's favor and understand the implications of the SECTOR BULLISH %!

What shape was the sector in headed into the bullish season?

09/21/05 and current Bell Curve Link

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 3:58:45 PM

Monday we have the 10:00a.m Aug Existing Home Sales. Previous: -4.1%.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 3:53:24 PM

By the way, in order to keep things fresh in your mind, make notes and put them on stickies for Monday. My NQ note says: watch 10 dma and 20 dma NQ and weekly fib projection and fib sep H/L confluence at 1599. My ES note is simple: watch 1322, 20 dma. This gives you a reminder when you start woking after two days with all the noise and emotions going on. KEEP IT SIMPLE.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 3:48:09 PM

My NQ battle stations for next week. 60 mn chart with week fib projection. Note 61.8% projection at 1598 Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 3:47:11 PM

BKX, XBD, XCI, CYC, MSH, IIX and DJT starting in early October.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 3:44:33 PM

NDX should test 1600 next week.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 3:45:28 PM

CMR (consumer) , RXH (health providers), XTC (telecom) should be beginning this week.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 3:43:16 PM

And they have all priced in a warm el nino winter. So any change in that equation will mean a big jump. I would not short energy here. Ok, maybe wait to go long, but short? I don't see enough downside to warrant the trade.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 3:43:21 PM

Stock Trader's Almanac entry for 08/01/06 points to "October Sector/Index Bullish Seasonalities"

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 3:40:21 PM

Hmmmm ... speaking of old trades ... was bullish on OXY (08/07/06) and got stopped for loss on (08/23/06) Link

Jim Brown : 9/22/2006 3:39:25 PM

At the recent energy conference I attended in August nearly all of the producers had hedged nearly ALL of their production out through the end of 2007 at prices from $8-$12 per mmcf. Even if gas goes to $2 they are covered and will not lose any money. Also, those hedges were floors with upside still available. Buy gas companies on the dip over the next 3-6 weeks.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 3:36:58 PM

Just use stops and discipline, please. Gold could hit 539 on a big last minute sale by ECB. I am just playing the odds here, but there is ALWAYS risk. Use stops. Right now, stops should be raised to 585.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 3:36:01 PM

Thanks Jane, and Jim too.

The natural gas stocks just give me a fit. As the Amaranth story unfolds, it really solidifies in me my past statements that the most "valued" employee of any energy producer is the company's trader that makes the decisions on demand and the company's production. Hedge, or not to hedge at various price points to meet company's bottom line objectives.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 3:35:18 PM

This has been a very unusual September in the gold business. That means they will be playing catch up very soon.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 3:38:31 PM

YG holds on to 10 dma ( a first in 10 days) and that sets up a bullish close if we hold above 594/594. YG is very strange to trade, Asians just love to buy it and many are retail and dont even look at a chart. ( I say this because they are the biggest buyers of gold along with India) The best way to trade YG is to accumulate positions within a range, which I recommend you do above 577. I just cannot give accurate signals, unless you use 5 to 10 point stops. Many jewelers are dying to buy some and have been waiting for the best price. When they all dive in, we will get a 50 point jump. I have recommended all my jewelry supplies to load up this week on gold. When ECB is done on the 26th, there will be no looking back. That's my guess. I could be wrong, but I know the business.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 3:30:24 PM

If any of us think for a minute the MARKET didn't figure some of this out months ago, as in Natural Gas prices and possible trends for drilling activity (as I did with a BHI short on 06/08/06 $84.21 here in the Market Monitor) then we're fooling ourselves.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 3:24:45 PM

Short below NQ 1643, long above. Pretty simple. That changes when we hit 1620, close and go long into EOM. If it holds, of course.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 3:23:52 PM

That NQ 1643 number is being sold. Not good for bulls on Monday, it's the 10 dma. They need a close above or we are headed for 1620, 20 dma, just like ES did today.

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 3:23:07 PM

Oil, Gold and Silver are the only commodities that I know of that have an ETF based on the commodity itself and not a basket of stocks.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 3:22:00 PM

Now I need YG to hold 590/592 into the close.

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 3:21:07 PM

Jim the ETF's we are talking about though are based on the commodity itself and are a way to trade a commodity instead of the futures. It is a way to trade without having to worry about the fundamentals of a stock or the stock market in general.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 3:21:08 PM

It pays to know the rythms when you need to catch up some trades. My only long is now YG from 586 (yesterday, did a few scalps in and out, but average entry is 585/587).

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 3:19:46 PM

Picked up some long NQ points, and now flat. Needed them, the day was tough to trade, but this set up never fails. I any case, R is now 10 dma at 1643 and I would go flat.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 3:24:14 PM

Baker Hughes North America Rig Counts for 09/22/06 Link

Main Paige Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 3:18:42 PM

Yes ... me thinks Tuesday

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 3:18:21 PM

"Financials" creep green.

Jim Brown : 9/22/2006 3:18:03 PM

There are no natural gas ETFs that I am aware of. The major gas stocks are ECA, CHK, UPL, EOG, CVX, XTO and DVN. You could make your own ETF using those names.

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 3:17:16 PM

ES is on its way to challenge daily highs. Keep your eye on the VIX and make sure it challenges its daily lows as well. Looks like it may.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 3:17:11 PM

Shorts could not get it lower, so they cover. When you see a dull market one hour before the close, don't short it.

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 3:16:18 PM

... wish there were.

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 3:16:04 PM

Jeff I know of no ETF for Natural GAs (2:54 post)

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 3:15:21 PM

Another TICKS +1000.

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 3:10:37 PM

That little rally got ES to its PDL and stopped.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 3:10:25 PM

Yep. R is 1643.

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 3:10:09 PM

This consolidating at daily lows is not looking all that bullish, particularly with these two this bearish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 3:09:50 PM

I think if it goes too much lower than that Jim, then we'll start hearing the "hard landing" crowd pointing to oil's weakness as proof of economic slowing.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 3:06:57 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 3:05:45 PM

feels like a closing bounce coming, but be careful.

Jim Brown : 9/22/2006 3:04:01 PM

I have said several times I am targeting $56-$58 for the lows on oil. I still think there is a good chance we will see those levels before the winter rebound begins.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 2:57:34 PM

Might have to lower my Q3 range for oil!

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 2:54:18 PM

Jane ... is there a "Natural Gas" ETF similar to the oil USO?

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 2:52:48 PM

Bear/Bull Candlestick patterns Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 2:50:45 PM

November Nat Gas starting to look like November Crude Oil and it's old "hammer" pattern from 09/15/06 as crude oil headed into its October contract expiration.

I'm not a "candle sticker" and do not profess to be one.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 2:34:15 PM

QM now at 60.55. They wanted the Nov contract to hit 60 as well. Typical, every month, never fails.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 2:33:07 PM

I had mentioned QM hitting 60.15 today and support (9/22/2006 1:49:42 PM ), and we tagged 60.175 and bounced. Pretty close.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 2:32:39 PM

I showed a Sector Bell Curve the other day from Dorsey/Wright and Associates.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 2:31:39 PM

NASDAQ's ETF Heatmap Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 2:27:52 PM

If December gold holds 590, the bottom is in for now. We could be trading back above 600 after the 26th, when ECB is done. They might already be done. But if the dollar keeps falling like this, you want to be in gold. I flicked out of QM and into YG yesterday and I am glad right now.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 2:24:54 PM

Jim, I am also glad you corrected that post. I have been making firm statements that I've turned bullish when the major market bullish % reversed up and begin to signal internal repair.

Here is a good source of mutual fund and the growing in popularity ETF inflows/outflows that traders/investors will monitor. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 2:24:40 PM

The july high (7/03) for SMH was 33.43. We are now below. That just confirms how lagging the semis have been throughout this entire rally. I am sure glad that years of market history were in the end vindicated and not put in question by some analysts pointing out to the GSO as beeing the "new" paradigm. I will stick with the SOX until history changes that. I posted this thought last week when it sure as heck was not popular to pooh pooh the rally, I have to dig it up. But if you bought call options based on the GSO and not the SOX, you are getting hurt right now, unless you threw in a lot of time. Besides, I will never buy the market based on Larry Ellison.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 2:19:16 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 2:17:03 PM

Jim, I am glad you corrected that entry and re-attributed the post to me. I like it.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 2:14:41 PM

SMH $33.39 -0.14% .... either side of unchanged today.

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 2:13:44 PM

Dateline CNN - Space shuttle Atlantis astronaut Heidemarie Stefanyshyn-Piper collapsed twice during a welcome home ceremony, The Associated Press reports.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 2:11:31 PM

Tuesday might be the "buy day" for bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 2:10:58 PM

I can't wait until tonight's close. Get a WEEKLY Pivot for the VIX.X 12.97 +5.87% ... didn't quite get a 14.00 today.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 2:08:40 PM

Laughing ... Dr. Doom! (CNBC)

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 2:06:26 PM

Hmmmm... AMAT $16.95 +0.05% ... reverses losses after probe of 21-day SMA and lower end of a very steep upward regression channel if taken from the recent July lows.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 2:03:12 PM

BOSTON SCI DROPS ON LOWER 3Q OUTLOOK

DJ- Medical-device maker's shares slide 10% after release of disappointing preliminary 3Q net sales and earning figures linked to underperforming cardiac rhythm management and drug-coated stents divisions.

BSX $14.72 -10.02% Link ...

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 2:02:53 PM

My favorite trade is the triangle and NQ jsut had one with a breakout above 1638.50.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 2:00:06 PM

QQQQ trading right at the "Thailand Tuesday" close.

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 1:59:10 PM

Oil just took another drop to new daily lows. I have been saying yearly lows but I see these are not new yearly lows but 10 month lows.

Jim Brown : 9/22/2006 2:05:57 PM

On Wednesday Marc made the following post:

Marc Eckelberry : 9/20/2006 8:24:13 PM

Good read, see link for Author: ...So historically, when short-term interest rates rise, we've consistently seen fund managers shift more and more client assets into cash and other liquid instruments. Until now.
Over the past couple of years, short rates have jumped significantly higher as noted above. But the amount of cash that fund managers are holding (as a percent of total assets) has actually decreased from 4.4% to 4.1%. This is abnormal behavior, and it has reached an extreme. The chart below shows mutual fund cash levels, after adjusting for the prevailing level of short-term interest rates. The most recent data suggests that funds are holding about 3% less cash than they "should" be given where interest rates are, a deficit that has been matched in extreme only by January 1981 and February 2000 over the past 56 years. On the chart, I've marked other times when cash reserves became ominously low. Link

I reposted the link at 2:20 yesterday afternoon in the following post and incorrectly attributed it to Jeff.

Jim Brown: 9/21/2006 2:20:39 PM

Jeff posted an interesting article yesterday about the cash positions of funds and why this was extremely bearish. I am repeating his link here: Link

Jeff asked me to post this correction because he felt it maligned him and incorrectly stated his view of the market as bearish. Jeff wants everyone to know that he is bullish on the market. Jeff felt the attribution of the link to him damaged his credibility even though I deleted it immediately after he brought it to my attention. It was a simple mistake and I apologized to Jeff for accidentally attacking his credibility and I am posting this correction per his request.

Jeff is bullish !!

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 1:53:32 PM

CRB Index (cr00y) ... you can bet your bottom dollar this will be the "key sector" some traders will be monitoring, trading, and asking some questions about. Each "dashed green" is where a fib trader/investor would have been dragging DOWN there BULLISH retracement of late. 300 is the near-term KEY SUPPORT level. But note how nicely the BLUE retracement reflects how the CRB has been traded. Link

As I've said over the years ... JUNK BONDS can also be key as it relates to a market read and what IT thinks about the economy! YIELDS for junk are attractive relative to Treasuries and corporates. But is CAPITAL at risk if the economy is about to crash?

PHF trading multi-year highs.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 1:49:42 PM

QM should tag 60.15, next support.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 1:49:04 PM

So much for that. Bears are in full control at least for another 40 mns.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 1:47:56 PM

I can't type fast enough, but you get the picture.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 1:47:41 PM

Big drop in oil and that could set up the reversal for NQ if 1636.50 holds. Stops on long scalp here should be 1636.

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 1:47:13 PM

Here is McMillan's weekly commentary. This week $SPX rallied up to its yearly highs, at 1325. That's where it topped out in May, setting of a rather sharp decline of over 100 $SPX points in about six weeks. Some traders feel we're about to repeat that, while others think it's only a short matter of time before $SPX breaks out to new highs on the upside. So there is a divergence of opinion. Let's see if the technical indicators can help clear things up.

$SPX has support at 1290, as we've mentioned before. So our feeling is that, even if it stalls out here near the May highs, it would only retrace to about the 1290 level -- thereby staying within the trading range shown on the chart in Figure 1. Thursday's decline from the 1325 level might be the beginning of such a decline. One easy guideline would be" if $SPX falls below Thursday's lows at 1315, then a near-term correction towards 1290 is likely. Eventually, if 1290 gives way, then one would have to turn outright bearish.

The equity-only put-call ratios remain at fairly high levels, but are looking like they're about to roll back over to sell signals again. You can see from Figures 2 and 3 that both ratios have curled upwards this week. Despite what looks like clear visual evidence of sell signals from these ratios (a sell signal occurs when they bottom and begin to rise), our computer analyses have not yet confirmed those sell signals. However, unless they begin to turn back down immediately, confirmed sell signals can't be more than a day or two away.

The two remaining indicators were the ones that were giving us some concern last week, when they were overbought, and they remain in that state. The first is market breadth (advances minus declines). "Stocks only" breadth is faring worse than NYSE-based breadth this week because of the strong rally in bonds. So the NYSE oscillator remains overbought, and has not given a sell signal as of this date. However, the "stocks only" oscillator has given a sell signal.

Finally, there are the volatility indices. Even when the market declined on Thursday, $VIX didn't increase much -- about a point or so. If $VIX were to close above 12.70, that would be the first step towards a minor sell signal, and if it closed above 14 that would be a full-fledged sell signal.

In summary, the indicators are slowly turning more bearish: $SPX has fallen back from resistance at 1325, the put-call ratios are edging upwards, and there is a sell signal from "stocks only" breadth. But none of these is definitive. We'd only turn bearish if the other things fell in place: $SPX closing below 1315, confirmed put-call ratio sell signals, and $VIX closing above 12.70, at least.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 1:46:09 PM

In any case, if you want a long, I suggest you wait until Monday. Shorts should hit any bounce that stays under 1640. Support will be 1620 to 1625. Bulls win the day back above 1643.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 1:44:36 PM

The internals are too bearish to set up a reversal this early. Maybe at the close. But ES tested 20 dma and NQ should do the same eventually. All the Cramer followers have been buying every dip in techs as he suggested yesterday, and that is thousands of traders. But they are getting hurt, as was his recommendation to short gold. He was right about energy, but even that is seeing some bargain hunters. He might be correct about an EOM rally, but I don't think that wil be until next week.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 1:41:10 PM

They are selling the 10 dma so that sets up a test of 20 dma for NQ at 1620

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 1:39:47 PM

ES not able to break through resistance but as long as it keeps testing it I think it will eventually break.

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 1:28:43 PM

Dateline WSJ - Wal-Mart Stores Inc. said it plans to cut packaging by 5% under a new environmental commitment announced at the Clinton Global Initiative in New York. More details were expected shortly.

A day earlier, Wal-Mart waded into the nation's health-care debate and its rivals' pharmacy businesses by promising to cut the price of some of its generic drugs to $4 for a 30-day supply.

The Bentonville, Ark. retailer said it will use its purchasing and distribution prowess to offer versions of about 150 different generic drugs, such as the antibiotic tetracycline, at prices on average 20% below its existing ones. The drugs are mostly older medications; the company said it plans to add more popular drugs later on. Wal-Mart implemented the price policy at 65 stores in the Tampa, Fla. area, and early next year will expand it to about 170 other Florida stores before taking the policy nationwide later next year.

I am sure for reducing packaging - it is getting RIDICULOUS!

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 1:16:49 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 1:15:11 PM

ES stalled at 1324.75 close enough to PDLs to be resistance. Bulls need to see 1324.75 - 1325.50 break and then it may be a sling shot upwards. Keep your eye on the VIX to see if it cooperates. Bulls really wish the AD volume would start climbing.

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 1:11:15 PM

Both VIX and TRIN are falling.

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 1:10:48 PM

MACD is supporting the bulls and it looks like we may move higher.

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 1:09:27 PM

ES's PDL is 1325.50 so expect some resistance there if long.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 1:05:30 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 1:02:30 PM

Hmmm ... today's rig count data might be more important than I thought.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 12:59:37 PM

HALLIBURTON BOOSTS STOCK BUYBACKS BY $2B

DJ- Halliburton says it increased its stock repurchase program by $2 billion. Under the previous $1 billion program, launched in February, the Houston oil services company has repurchased 29.5 million shares for $983 million.

HAL $28.53 +1.53% Link

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 12:56:24 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Investors bid up shares of DivX Inc. and CommVault Systems in their trading debuts Friday in a positive showing for the tech sector in the market for initial public offerings.

The upward moves by the two IPOs plus Thursday's rally in Riverbed Technology (RVBD) marks a "back to school rush" by three solid companies, and not a looming IPO bubble in the tech sector, said Giles McNamee, managing director of McNamee Lawrence & Co., a Boston-based investment banking boutique.

DivX (DIVX) opened at $19.50, well above its $16 price. The stock changed hands at $18.17 in the open market.

In a sign of strong demand, DivX priced 9.1 million shares above its $12-$14 price range.

CommVault Systems (CVLT) offered 11.1 million shares at $14.50 a share, the top of its $12.50-$14.50 range, raising $161 million. The company's stock opened at $16 and changed hands at $15.58 in the aftermarket.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 12:55:14 PM

I'm thinking to myself the old PnF saying that "the first sell signal in a new upward trend is a buying opportunity" when looking at the unconventional $0.25 and $0.20 box charts.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 12:52:39 PM

Speaking of Mr. Gates ....

MSFT $26.66 -0.89% Link ... I said the other day that I think we sold those calls way too soon.

$0.50 box chart Link

$0.25 box chart Link

$0.20 box chart Link

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 12:48:32 PM

ES's daily lows did hold (12:13 post) and now the buyers are back - TICK +800.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 12:47:12 PM

FORBES LIST IS NOW BILLIONAIRES ONLY

DJ- For the first time, Forbes' list of 400 richest people in U.S. consists only of people worth $1 billion or more. Casino magnate Sheldon Adelson jumps to No. 3, finishing behind Nos. 1 and 2: Bill Gates and Warren Buffett.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 12:39:57 PM

US, CHINA AGREE ON ECONOMIC PRINCIPLES BUT NOT TIMING

DJ- U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson says that the U.S. and China are largely in agreement over the steps China needs to take to reform its economy, but aren't unified over the timing. 'Their enthusiasm was very encouraging,' Paulson says, but declines to go into specifics.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 12:38:53 PM

PALM 1Q NET SLIPS ON OPTIONS, COMPETITION

DJ- Treo smart phone maker's 1Q net falls to $16.5 million, or 16c per share, as it accounts for stock option expenses and grapples with slow sales growth amid tougher competition. Revenue rises 4% to $355.8 million.

PALM $15.02 +3.58% Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 12:30:23 PM

CHARGES DROPPED AGAINST EX-BEAR STEARNS SPECIALIST

DJ- U.S. drops criminal securities fraud case against Kevin M. Fee, a former NYSE floor trader who worked for a unit of Bear Stearns. Decision represents further setback for prosecuting former elite floor traders.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 12:27:52 PM

If NQ cracks lows, next support is 1625/1627. Right now, they are selling PL at 1636.50, so they might test lows once more. Watch for divergences. Above 1638, they get some mo back.

Keene Little : 9/22/2006 12:23:56 PM

Jane, yes I have bunches of pictures. I'll be sure to post some next week. See you all later.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 12:23:49 PM

Tip For the Day - Listen to the herd, but check to see if they're doing what they say their doing. If the technicals confirm what the herd is saying, don't try and fight them!

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 12:20:38 PM

NIKE PROFIT SLIPS 13%, REVENUE RISES

DJ- Nike 1Q profit falls to $377.2 million, or $1.47 a share, beating expectations by 6c. Excluding stock-option expenses, profit down 3%. Revenue rises 8.6% to $4.19 billion, also ahead of market expectations.

NKE $86.04 +4.34% Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 12:18:22 PM

Ugh! The word "packing" sends shivers down my spine.

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 12:18:00 PM

Keene, do you have pictures you could post here. I bet there are more than a few who would love to see this project.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 12:17:00 PM

NQ hit my secondary low target between 1633 and 1634 along with ES at 20 dma. Must hold. Resistance is NQ 1636.50, 1638 and 1640. Ultimate rsistance is 1643, but that does not look good so far. Maybe Monday. For now, be safe and do 2 or 3 point daytrades.

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 12:15:06 PM

* NYSE VOLUME 670.5M
* NYSE HAS 942 ADVANCERS
* NYSE HAS 2,126 DECLINERS
* NYSE HAS 168 ISSUES UNCHANGED
* NYSE HAS 66 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK HIGHS
* NYSE HAS 27 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK LOWS
* NASDAQ VOLUME 815.3M
* NASDAQ HAS 767 GAINERS
* NASDAQ HAS 2,052 LOSERS
* NASDAQ HAS 140 ISSUES UNCHANGED
* NASDAQ HAS 37 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK HIGHS
* NASDAQ HAS 57 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK LOWS

Keene Little : 9/22/2006 12:14:28 PM

Jane, I got it to the point where all we have to do is cover it with fabric, paint it and then fly it. Probably another month next summer and it'll be in the air. What a great time my father and I had building it.

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 12:13:15 PM

ES is now testing daily lows but the VIX is not testing daily highs. Very good chance ES's lows will hold.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 12:09:55 PM

NQ next support is 1633/1634, 61.8% proj PD and s2.

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 12:07:37 PM

Keene did you get your plane built?

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 12:07:16 PM

If ES loses 20 dma at 1322, next support could be 1320, August high. Remember, window dressing is upon us.

Keene Little : 9/22/2006 12:06:39 PM

I'm packing up my "office" as I get ready to get on the road back to Seattle. I'm leaving my "northeastern Canadian" office and hope to arrive back in my "northwestern U.S." office by Tuesday. I'll check in before the open on Monday and sporadically during Monday and Tuesday until I get home. I hope everyone has a geat weekend.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 11:59:28 AM

Oil bid. Gold moves up, that gap close was supportive (590). Could test 600 today if QM rallies.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 11:57:21 AM

Gold is holding the line with the dollar fall and swiss rally. But dollar is gaining a littel here and oil is down. Nevertheless, there seems to be a flight to metal to portect against a possible dollar meltdown.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 11:56:36 AM

If you listened to the herd saying "last time I checked we weren't growing anymore land" when the bullish % was saying weakness coming (and the herd actually running out of sector) and the DJUSHB really started breaking down, you may have suffered some losses.

It has been posted here in the market monitor that some just recently started selling their real estate holdings, opting for other investment opportunities.

I haven't heard anything about the supply of land lately.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 11:53:56 AM

QQV is red and a little supportive of NQ. SMH is green. I don't really feel like shorting this under those conditions, although COMP is now below the 200 dma. It is a good day for non-scalpers to stay flat.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 11:51:04 AM

BUILding Sector Bullish % as of last night's close at this Link ... not just homebuilders, but an idea of BUILding-related stocks.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 11:45:57 AM

ES 1323.75 is pivot confluence weekly daily. That's why there's noise here. Weekly pivot and daily S1.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 11:39:17 AM

Toll Brother (TOL) $27.75 +2.17% ... testing short-term downward trend. Cut through WEEKLY Pivot as if it didn't exist.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 11:38:13 AM

SeekingAlpah- What Is Correct Way to Value Homebuilders? ... Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 11:28:45 AM

Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 638.49 +1.02% Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 11:25:06 AM

Qcharts data feed has become great.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 11:18:26 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 11:18:17 AM

Gold held the gap close at 590. ES is back above 20 dma (1322).

Keene Little : 9/22/2006 11:17:58 AM

DOW almost tested Tuesday's low and is struggling to hold onto its July uptrend line at 11505 now. This is a critical level for the market and today's action could be very telling if that uptrend line is firmly broken. After that a retest of it would make an ideal short play. We may be short term oversold enough to get a bigger bounce into lunch now.

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 11:13:10 AM

I see signs of a bottom forming.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 11:04:47 AM

Bulls might be waiting for Monday to do the EOQ business. But you never know, NQ back above fib support and ES at 20 dma.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 11:02:45 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 11:02:18 AM

COMP lost 200 dma and if it doesn't wake up, it is headed for 2198. That's probably the target, 2198/2200.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 11:00:38 AM

SMH and SOX are red. Bulls are in trouble. Gold found support at gap close for now. Next support for NQ is 1634.

Keene Little : 9/22/2006 10:49:56 AM

The next critical level for the market would be a test of the July uptrend line for SPX at 1307.

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 10:49:07 AM

Here is how the markets are trading in relation to their PDRs. Link

Keene Little : 9/22/2006 10:48:37 AM

But first watch to see if YM gives us a bounce now that it's down to pretty solid support.

Keene Little : 9/22/2006 10:48:07 AM

With ES breaking its Tuesday low, that gives us a bearish picture now. YM is now testing its July uptrend line at 11565 so the test is on. A break below that level would strongly suggest that the ascending wedges have been busted to the downside.

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 10:46:29 AM

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Famed contrarian investor Marc Faber, better known by his self-appointed nickname "Dr Doom," has temporarily shed his preference for emerging-market stocks for two out-of-favor asset classes: large-cap U.S. industrial and technology shares.

The main reason for his upbeat view: the U.S. consumer may be more resilient in the face of a slowing U.S. housing market than widely thought.

While housing prices may be easing around the country, Faber says there's little evidence a catastrophic drop in home values is imminent. Abundant liquidity and a Bernanke-led Federal Reserve that appears inclined to cut interest rates if the housing market were to dip more than 10% bodes for "a slowing and not a collapse" in the housing market, says Faber.

Faber, author of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report who gained notoriety for his market insight after he turned bearish on Asian assets before the Asian financial crisis in 1997, said there are plenty reason consumers can ramp up their discretionary spending, considering homeowners haven't slowed their pace of borrowing against home equity, employment is high, wage inflation is picking up and falling commodity prices are taking the heat off retail prices.

"If the price of oil and other commodities declines for a while, it leads to something like a tax cut for the consumer," Faber said, speaking at a recent Hong Kong conference.

Whereas I am very negative in the long run, and I believe that the U.S. economic imbalances are not sustainable, for the next few months the investment community is too negative on the U.S. economy which is more likely to surprise to the upside than the downside."

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 10:45:52 AM

Back for a sec. If ES can't hold 20 dma here, itis really bad news But don;t count the bulls out yet.

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 10:41:07 AM

TRIN is now a bearish 1.30

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 10:36:11 AM

* NYSE VOLUME 329.4M
* NYSE HAS 790 ADVANCERS
* NYSE HAS 2,093 DECLINERS
* NYSE HAS 145 ISSUES UNCHANGED
* NYSE HAS 67 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK HIGHS
* NYSE HAS 24 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK LOWS
* NASDAQ VOLUME 419.8M
* NASDAQ HAS 682 GAINERS
* NASDAQ HAS 1,904 LOSERS
* NASDAQ HAS 141 ISSUES UNCHANGED
* NASDAQ HAS 37 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK HIGHS
* NASDAQ HAS 45 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK LOWS

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 10:33:30 AM

All internals are in sync and the bearish picture is very clear. Do not try finding a bottom, let it come to you ie let it prove to you the bottom is in.

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 10:31:19 AM

Gold is falling as well. I just bailed on my Natural Gas long because Gold and Oil are so bearish.

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 10:27:35 AM

My Goodness Oil to new yearly lows. That bounce was short lived.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 10:27:44 AM

Children's Place (PLCE) $60.25 -1.48% Link ... backfilling yesterday's gap higher from $60.00.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 10:24:02 AM

Scalp it, don;t love it. Gotta go, Watch that gap close for YG at 590/591.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 10:23:49 AM

Baker Huges (BHI) $63.01 -1.16% ... testing short-term trend from recent low to "pullback low" found Wednesday.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 10:22:47 AM

Stops should be moved up to 1641.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 10:22:33 AM

This is why I only trade long when the SOX is green, unless of course we are at extreme bottoms and I'm fishing for a swing.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 10:21:59 AM

If NQ holds 1643, bulls get it back.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 10:21:31 AM

And here it is. Move stops to 1638.75.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 10:18:11 AM

sorry, 20 dma is 1322. SOX os green and if oil keesp falling, there is a chance of a reversal here with NQ.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 10:16:38 AM

ES 20 dma is 1321.

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 10:09:18 AM

Here is my theory on Gold. The 240 minute chart shows a very nice MACD and RSI divergence plue it broke the downward trendline suggesting it was into an oversold bounce. I suspect Gold could make it back to 606.50 or even 615-616 before it starts another downward swing. So I am bullish on Gold in the shortterm (Marc is bullish on Gold) yet bearish on it for the longerterm (Keene is bearish on Gold). Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 10:09:08 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 10:07:47 AM

Conservative traders wait for NQ to get above 1643 to go long.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 10:07:21 AM

Big drop in oil.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 10:07:07 AM

I took another NQ long at 1638.50, near 73.6%, but I am scalping.

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 10:05:22 AM

Opps - Oil is now breaking ir overnight lows.

Keene Little : 9/22/2006 10:05:00 AM

Looks like a break down in SPX but the DOW is holding up better. Still a bit of a mixed picture. ES is about to test the 1322.75 Tuesday low.

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 10:04:07 AM

All I need to know is that the VIX is making new daily highs and the AD volume is making new daily lows.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 10:02:31 AM

Stopped out NQ long -2. Gap is closed. Wait for a move back above 1643 tp initiate any longs again. Right now, short is the way, but I agree with Keene, this has an edning feel to it, at least today.

Jeff Bailey : 9/22/2006 10:02:30 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 10:02:30 AM

All internals are bearish except the TRIN - just like yesterday.

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 10:01:08 AM

Both the VIX and TRIN opened within their respective PDRs but the VIX has now broken its PDH. The TRIN remain within its PDR.

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 9:58:09 AM

These are bearish. Link

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 9:56:55 AM

ES is now testing its PDL and that is usually a good spot for this market to at least pause.

Keene Little : 9/22/2006 9:55:24 AM

The bounce up to the broken September uptrend lines and now a drop back down from them looks bearish. But so far the drop this morning has an ending feel to it. Either that or the bottom is getting ready to fall out. This could be a push lower to suck in some bears before running it back to the upside. Tough call right in here. I'm watching to see if a test of yesterday's low holds with bullish divergences.

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 9:55:00 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- NYSE Group Inc. shares slipped Friday after the company gave more details of its merger plan with pan-European exchange Euronext in a regulatory filing.

Shares of NYSE Group (NYX) fell about 1%, surrendering 63 cents to $67.83 in early action.

The company's filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission shed more light on what the finances of a combined New York Stock Exchange and Euronext would be.

"Pro forma" figures show that a joint company would have had $2.75 billion in revenue for 2005, as well as income from continuing operations of $208.6 million, or 79 cents a share.

For the first half of 2006, NYSE-Euronext would have had nearly $1.56 billion in revenue and income from continuing operations of $271.8 million, or $1.02 a share. Revenue figures exclude certain activity-assessment fees.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 9:54:57 AM

Gap close is 1643. With the SOX green, bulls might hold the line. THis is only a scalp.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 9:54:31 AM

Scalp long NQ at 1644, stop 1642.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 9:44:34 AM

SOX is up and this could be the day to pick up some scalp long NQ. Only above 1644.

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 9:42:27 AM

* DEC. GOLD CLIMBS $8.30, OR 1.4%, TO $596.60/OZ
* DEC. SILVER UP 19.5 CENTS, OR 1.7%, AT $11.44/OZ
* DEC. COPPER RISES 3.25 CENTS, OR 1.1%, TO $3.47/LB

Marc Eckelberry : 9/22/2006 9:42:06 AM

NQ has approached my target where bulls need to hold the line. Gold has taken off with the low dollar. OIl is stalling at resistance. I would not get too greedy there if long.

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 9:38:44 AM

* NYSE DECLINERS OUTNUMBER ADVANCERS 5 TO 3
* NASDAQ DECLINERS OUTNUMBER ADVANCERS 15 TO 7
* DOW INDUSTRIALS DECLINERS OUTNUMBER ADVANCERS 18 TO 12

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 9:38:12 AM

ER and NQ break their PDLs so there is a pretty good chance ES and YM will as well.

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 9:28:53 AM

Equities may have not been bullish overnight but the commodities and Bonds certainly were.

Gold broke its PDH and is now testing its ON high. Later today I will give you my theory on Gold which sort of encompasses both Marc's bullishness and Keene's bearishness.

Oil is consolidating at its PDH a totally different scenario from what I have seen for weeks now. Yesterday I mention Oil consolidating at lows had been up to that point a sure sign of lower lows but yesterday broke that pattern.

I am long Natural Gas from yesterday it was bullish overnight as well.. Link

Jane Fox : 9/22/2006 9:21:11 AM

Sorry for my tardiness, I slept in. Equity markets were not all that bullish overnight but only ER broke its PDL. Link

Keene Little : 9/22/2006 8:13:24 AM

It was quiet in the streets last night. A little pop before Europe opened and a little dip after they opened. Futures are closer to yesterday's low than to the bounce high into the close. This is what we've got this morning--SPX has broken its uptrend line from Sept 11th and bounced up to it at the close yesterday. A kiss goodbye there will likely mean a trip down to its uptrend line from July, currently near 1307 (cash). Link

It's possible the wave count is finished at the high on Wednesday (with a truncated c-wave). But no permanent damage is done to this chart until the Sept 11th low is taken out (so a drop below 1290). The DOW's uptrend lines from July and Sept 7th are much closer and it came within pennies of touching its July uptrend yesterday. It too bounced up to its broken uptrend line from Sept 7th heading into the close. Link

The DOW is closer to giving us a major sell signal if it breaks its July uptrend line at 11500. But from an EW standpoint it too doesn't do permanent damage until the Sept 7th low (11323) is taken out. In the meantime a break below Tuesday's 11480 low would be confirmation of a break of the September uptrend. It'll be time to get shorty and see if we make a run for the September low.

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