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Tab Gilles : 9/26/2006 12:59:53 AM

Open Positions & Watch List Link

Even though the Weekly $NASI gave a sell signal today, it could be a head fake move. I use several indicators to plot major BUY/SELL signals. Although some are giving yellow warning signals, I haven't gotten an outright sell signal. Link

Even though the 50 ma is in overbought territory the 150 & 200 ma has more to go. Link

$NDX/$NASI/$NALOW/$NAHL/$BPNDX weekly Link

Keene Little : 9/25/2006 10:08:13 PM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 9/25/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 9:28:42 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Today's Activity

Established a stop for the Baker Hughes BHI Nov $60 Puts (BHI-WL) of $65.15 in the underlying.

Bullish swing traded long two (2) of the Ameritrade Holdings AMTD Jan $17.50 Calls (TQA-AW) at $2.20. No stop for now, targeting $6.00 for the options.

Keene Little : 9/25/2006 7:39:42 PM

Well, nice rally today. The bears are getting their heads handed to them, again. With the DOW holding its July uptrend (slight under-throw) and SPX holding above its uptrend I guess we shouldn't be surprised the bulls jumped back in to defend their turf. Plus end of month/quarter window dressing seems to alive and well. I agree with Marc's sentiment that this week will not be telling us much except if it's held up into the end of the week then I suspect it won't be pretty next week as they finally unload that which they don't really want.

Looking at the 240-min chart of SPX to see how its ascending wedge is doing, we see that it can get up to 1332 (cash) before hitting the top of the wedge. If it keeps heading higher into the end of the week and hits two equal legs up from its Sept 11th low then we have an upside target of almost 1345. That's the Gann number I've been mentioning ever since it was reaching higher in May. Perhaps this time will be the winner. Link

The picture for the DOW looks similar. It's upper Fib projection is at 11764 whereas the top of its wedge is at 11685. But again, if we're going to see this market held up into the end of the year then the higher price level is entirely possible. The bears will just have to wait some more. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 6:16:52 PM

Whether or not it is window dressing, the technical picture has become more bullish. I still don't understand why SMH is lagging so much, so I will still remain cautious and only daytrade the long side. But that buildup in puts at QQQQ 40 strike is alleviating a lot of the bearish set up going into October. Too many bears are piling on to this rally and traders should respect that big change below us. NQ weekly R2 is 1693, which would correpond to about QQQQ 41.50, and they might very well be gunning for it.
For now, I like accumultaing gold, especialy now that oil is basing. I will stick to daytrades long and short for equities.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 5:20:01 PM

QQQQ is building put support at 40. That's bullish on a retest of 40 that holds. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 5:16:19 PM

Weekly PP at 61.90 was R.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 5:16:04 PM

It will be interesting to see if QM holds on a retest of 60 level. Pivot is 61 and S1 is 59.95.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 5:14:17 PM

Tab, check out that clean bounce off XLE 20 month MA. They held it up and it sure looks better for oil stocks now: Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 5:10:50 PM

Lowe's: Updates At 2006 Analyst and Investor Conference

Current Sales Trending Below Expectations

Sees Yr EPS At Or Near Low End of Prior View

Previous 2006 EPS View $2-$2.07

Sees Adding 155 Stores In 2007

Sees Adding 150 Stores In 2008

Sees 2007 EPS Up 10%-14%, 2008 EPS Up 12%-16%

Sees 2007 Sales Up 10%-13%, 2008 Sales Up 11%-13%

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 5:07:32 PM

Murphy Oil Spill Settlement Totals $330 Million

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 4:58:48 PM

ZB 114 is key resistance and a good short.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 4:51:03 PM

Strange that yields dropped on that...I guess the bond market is not so sure. In any case, bonds look overbought if Feds think the economy is strong enough: they will not lower rates as fast as everyon ethinks. They might even raise them after the election if core cpi stays above 2.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 4:49:15 PM

This should also help oil:
Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rallied, sending the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to a five-year high, after Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said the economy remains strong. Homebuilders, led by Pulte Homes Inc., climbed on an industry report that showed sales of existing houses fell less than economists forecast. Media stocks gained after analysts at Morgan Stanley and Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. recommended Time Warner Inc. for the first time in more than a year, citing the prospects for its cable and Internet units.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 4:48:36 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 4:45:43 PM

Gold still seems to be the safest bet.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 4:34:17 PM

This period between now and 9/30 is all a farce anyway. Hard to judge anything other than you know what funds are up to. It truly is a time to daytrade only.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 4:32:52 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- PMC-Sierra Inc. (PMCS : pmc-sierra inc com News , chart, profile, more Last: 6.55+0.08+1.24% 4:17pm 09/25/2006 after Monday's closing bell said it cut its third-quarter revenue outlook to $114 million to $116 million from $122 million to $124 million. The Santa Clara-Calif.-based maker of chips said the revision is due lower-than-expected demand of its communications products, especially in Asia. The company also said it now sees operating expenses for the period at or below $60 million, down from its prior outlook of $62.5 million to $63.5 million.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 4:31:45 PM

Not good for semis.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 4:31:37 PM

4:21pm 09/25/06 PMC-Sierra cuts quarterly revenue outlook

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 4:30:59 PM

Did somebody warn? SMH down to 33.93, from the 34.22 close.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 4:29:21 PM

I have correlation daily R1 tomorrow 1681 and 1681 monthly R2 for NQ. On a runup, that would be the target. ES would be 1348/1350. If we get there.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 4:27:41 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 4:21:59 PM

Brazil: August Iron Ore Exports Up 11% On Yr

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 4:20:28 PM

SH 10 dma is 34.17. Now at 34.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 4:19:58 PM

SM just did a 20 cent dive. I wonder what other kind of game is going on.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 4:15:01 PM

November Crude Oil (cl06x) settled up $0.90, or +1.49% at $61.45.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 4:12:57 PM

I was certainly expecting Tuesday to be the "buy day" on any weakness (see Friday's MM). Trade date + 3 would have been (buy WEEKLY S1 on Tuesday) with final cash settlement of Friday the 29th.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 4:12:20 PM

That's easy now. NQ and ES close below weekly R1's. 1667 and 1337. That will be your guides.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 4:09:33 PM

Bear gulp! ... LRCX $45.04 +8.89% Link ... this was perhaps "the last" chip name to give up support back in mid-July.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 4:07:43 PM

SMH closes at 34.22, a hair below 200 day ema.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 4:07:01 PM

Pretty sneaky. Many traders expected the game to start Tuesday, but the oil rally helped some energy stocks and off we went, they decided today was as good as any. This isets up a Tuesday reversal if ES 1337 does not hold.

Jane Fox : 9/25/2006 4:02:47 PM

Economic Reports for tomorrow include:

10:00a.m Sept Conference Board Consumer Confidence. Previous: 99.6

10:00a.m. Sept Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Previous: 3.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 3:59:20 PM

A close above 34.24 would be nice for SMH and help the big picture a lot.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 3:53:01 PM

Even though SMH went up 2.2%, the chart still looks bearish. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 3:52:03 PM

NQ was not able to hit 1673, Sept high. ES hit 1340 and double topped. We will see what happens tomorrow but SMH found clear resistance at 200 day ema, 34.24. This does not feel right, but again, never trust the end of quarter much. Funds want you to think they are winners so the can collect their fees.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 3:48:52 PM

NQ weekly R1 1667, ES 1337. NQ is the laggard on a relative basis.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 3:47:48 PM

FedEx Unveils $2.6B Aircraft Modernization Plan

DJ- FedEx Corp. (FDX) on Monday said it will spend $2.6 billion in a multi-year program to buy and modify about 90 Boeing Co.'s (BA) 757-200 aircraft to replace FedEx Express's fleet of Boeing 727-200s.

The company said it doesn't expect the program to materially affect earnings. Replacing the planes will result in lower operating costs and reduce green house emissions, it added.

FedEx included the capital impact of the program on the current fiscal year in its first-quarter earnings release. The company added that its capital-spending forecast for 2007 remains at $3 billion.

FedEx Express expects to bring the new aircraft into service between 2008 and 2016.

Fedex also said it has named ITT Corp. (ITT) Chief Executive Steven Loranger to its board for a one-year term.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 3:44:45 PM

GSO.X ... 5-dayNet% +3.34% ... 20-dayNet% +10.30%

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 3:44:30 PM

I guess you can never be "too old" to think there might be something new to learn. Even an MIT graduate going back to school.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 3:40:07 PM

83-Year Old Student Enrolls at Grantham University

DJ (partial)- Grantham University, specializing in educating working adults, has enrolled its oldest student to date, John "Jack" Childs, an 83-year-old former graduate of MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology).

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 3:38:00 PM

ES daily: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 3:24:47 PM

SPX hits ane September highs and top of wedge. NQ does not, but it's trying hard. This chart of SPX shows the resistance for bulls ahead of CC numbers tomorrow: Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 3:22:42 PM

Starbucks Named In Purported Class-Action Suit

DJ- An independent specialty coffeehouse owner filed a purported class-action lawsuit Monday against Starbucks Corp. (SBUX), claiming the company engages in anti-competitive activities aimed at eliminating competition.

Plaintiffs claim Starbucks locks out competition through a series of exclusive lease agreements with property managers of "Class A" high-rises, preventing other specialty coffee shops from operating in the same building.

A Starbucks representative wasn't immediately available for comment.

The suit seeks to represent coffee shop owners who seek to occupy retail space in commercial office buildings in Seattle or Bellevue, Wash.

The law firm of Hagens Berman Sobol Shapiro filed the suit in U.S. District Court in Seattle, on behalf of Penny Stafford, owner of Belvi Coffee & Tea Exchange Inc.

SBUX $34.47 +1.35% Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 3:15:55 PM

They are whacking every short out there. Monthly R2 is 1350. Sounds cute.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 3:13:36 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 3:08:50 PM

SOX is back in the lead and that is bullish.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 3:08:29 PM

NQ has pretty stiff r at 1667, but buls are pressing on.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 3:02:57 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 3:01:50 PM

100% grade A window dressing.

Jane Fox : 9/25/2006 2:56:41 PM

Gee at 10:55 I thought the bottom was in but I didn't go long because of the TRIN. ES as 1322 at 10:55 Gee Whizzzz!!!!

Jane Fox : 9/25/2006 2:55:49 PM

ES new daily highs are not been confirmed by the VIX so this may be the top for today.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 2:45:28 PM

1337 is weekly R1

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 2:45:05 PM

Bearish div 1 mn chart on ES new high. NQ still lags.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 2:42:50 PM

ES tags new highs without NQ. 61.8% proj Friday was 1338. Risk is t 1348/1350 this week if we break new highs.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 2:38:21 PM

Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) 228.01 +1.30% ... set to challenge Thursday's highs.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 2:33:58 PM

Overhead supply should be limited.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 2:32:37 PM

S&P Bank Index (BIX.X) 392.61 +0.89% ... creeps to new all-time high.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 2:29:21 PM

Honda Develops Next-Generation Clean Diesel Engine

Story Link

HMC $33.08 +1.22% Link

Jane Fox : 9/25/2006 2:26:47 PM

If you had only used the VIX to trade today you would have done very very well. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 2:23:16 PM

NASDAQ 52-week Highs (WSJ Market Data Group) found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 2:17:15 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 2:12:26 PM

Quite a few "energy" names on that NASDAQ list.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 2:11:20 PM

NASDAQ 52-week Lows (WSJ Market Data Group) found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 2:07:43 PM

Bronco Drilling (BRNC) $16.39 -1.14% Link ... notable 52-weeker at the NASDAQ.

Looks a bit like the Denver Broncos' offense so far this season. "Defensive team on the field here."

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 1:49:38 PM

It might (OPEC) ... I saw the headline on DJ, but it didn't have a "hot pepper" by it. Time stamp does seem to match this morning's lows.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 1:44:48 PM

Nasdaq new year lows 71, new year highs 42.

Keene Little : 9/25/2006 1:42:17 PM

I'm about to head into the mountains west of Missoula, MT where I won't receive any signals. I'll check back in with you either near or after the close.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 1:41:49 PM

Thanks Jeff, that explains a lot.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 1:39:53 PM

OPEC president says no plans yet for emergency group meeting

MarketWatch Story Link

Keene Little : 9/25/2006 1:38:51 PM

YM is bouncing between its July uptrend line and its broken Sept 7th uptrend line, having tagged the latter again on the latest bounce. It looks like another short play setup there. One of them will stick and then next leg down should be a good one.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 1:35:58 PM

There was some news earlier regarding OPEC not yet deciding if an "emergency meeting" was needed.

Perhaps the thought that an "emergency meeting" was being contemplated brought some short covering into the complex.

Keene Little : 9/25/2006 1:34:56 PM

I see the bulls have been able to get a much bigger bounce today than that early morning one. ES jumped up and tagged its broken uptrend line from Sept 11th (and it's also where the old uptrend line from July is located. That's a great spot to test the short side after the retest (you can keep your stop a few ticks above it). From a wave count perspective, the move up from this morning's pullback could use another new high to give us a 5-wave move for the c-wave (a-b-c up from Friday morning. If we get that new minor high I'd try shorting it there. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 1:33:26 PM

Can't find anything on the wires as to why QM is now suddenly up 2%. It's either short covering or we have definitely put in a bottom at 60. Maybe there is some Iran news.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 1:31:26 PM

Bullish swing trade call filled alert ... for the TQA-AW at $2.20

AMTD $18.21 +0.66%

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 1:28:17 PM

Buying gold on every pullback is the only trade I trust now and it has worked everyday for three days.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 1:17:40 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 1:06:39 PM

The surprise oil bid is holding up gold. NQ found resistance at 1666, a hair below 1667 target.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 1:04:02 PM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $10.30 +0.98% ... new multi-year highs. Those were "back ticks" to $10.40 on 09/18/06.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 1:02:39 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 9/25/2006 1:00:00 PM

Well I was right that the daily lows were in for now but certainly wrong in thinking we would see new daily lows. (10:55 post)

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 12:59:01 PM

But I would wait for it.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 12:58:37 PM

NQ res, is 1667/1668 if you want to try a short.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 12:54:02 PM

Bullish swing trade call option alert ... Let's place a bid of $2.20 for two (2) of the Ameritrade AMTD Jan $17.50 Calls (TQA-AW) currently $2.15 x $2.25

AMTD $18.32 +1.27%

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 12:46:27 PM

PokerTek (PTEK) $12.59 +6.69% Link ... stock edging above August resistance. Dorsey/Wright's GAMEing sector bullish % just achieving "bull confirmed" status.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 12:44:57 PM

The window dressing game should be be long techs, short energy. This is what they want to show or don't show in their portfolios. Theoretically. So be aware of this if trading. It might be best to wait until EOM to get committied either way.

Jane Fox : 9/25/2006 12:41:17 PM

VIX just made a new daily lows suggesting ES will make a new daily high. I just wish the TRIN were more bullish.

Jane Fox : 9/25/2006 12:27:21 PM

I like all my ducks in a row (AD volume climbing, AD line climbing and VIX falling) when I put on a trade and I would really like to try a long here but the TRIN at 1.39 hugging daily highs will keep me out for now.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 12:25:22 PM

Window dressing is upon us. They will put a floor on techs. I thought it was going to wait until tomorrow, with CC numbers, but they are starting today.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 12:20:43 PM

QM either holds here or does the nose dive. No in between.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 12:17:40 PM

Big test here for QM and XLE.

Jane Fox : 9/25/2006 12:16:27 PM

Price consolidating at almost yearly lows is bearish. Resistance above and very little support below is bearish. From a technical point of view this is a bearish chart. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 12:14:54 PM

XLE holds 20 month MA. That is giving some support to QM and maybe we have found a bottom. Let's see if 60.40 holds.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 12:14:22 PM

QQQQ, SPY and IWM rank #1, 2 and 3 on this morning's most actives.

SUNW $5.06 +0.79%, TWX $17.99 +1.46% round out top 5.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 12:13:15 PM

IWM $71.67 +0.18% .... WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... $69.56, $70.57, Piv= $72.07, $73.08, $74.58.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 12:11:50 PM

Flat QM.

Jane Fox : 9/25/2006 12:07:56 PM

AD volume is making new daily lows so you do not want to be long. VIX, on the other hand, is not anywhere near daily highs so you do not want to be short. The easy money (ya right!!!) was made this morning if you were short and now it is time to step aside.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 12:05:07 PM

On September 25, 2001 the 5-year Yield ($FVX.X) Closed at 3.815%

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 12:01:45 PM

U.S. To Sell $20.0B 2-Yr Notes Wed, $14.05B 5-Yr Notes Thursday

DJ- The Treasury plans to raise a combined $10.34 billion in fresh cash next week with the sale of $20.00 billion of two-year notes and $14.00 billion of five-year notes.

Maturing bills outstanding total $23.66 billion.

The two-year notes, to be sold Wednesday, Sept. 27, will be dated Oct. 2, and will mature Sept. 30, 2008. The five-year notes, to be sold Thursday, Sept. 28, will be dated Oct. 2, and will mature Sept. 30, 2011. The CUSIP number for the two-year notes is 912828FT2 and the CUSIP for the five-year notes is 912828FU9.

The total auction amount is down from last month, when Treasury sold $22.00 billion in two-year notes and $14.00 billion in five-year notes.

The Federal Reserve holds $8.00 billion of the maturing securities for its own account.

Noncompetitive tenders for the notes, available in minimum denominations of $1,000, must be received by 12 p.m. EDT the day of the auction.

Competitive tenders for the notes, available in minimum denominations of $1,000, must be received by 1 p.m. EDT on auction day.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 11:59:08 AM

QM is holding the 60 level. Scalping now, no short and hold, too dangerous.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 11:44:27 AM

GSO.X 178.60 +0.37% ... WEEKLY Pivot 177.49.

MSFT $26.84 +0.67% ... WEEKLY Pivot $26.79, marks morning low.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 11:43:11 AM

QQQQ $40.03 +0.40% .... penny above WEEKLY Pivot.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 11:36:50 AM

You sure have to scalp fast when you short QM. Wild.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 11:29:56 AM

I would recommend trailing stops on QM if short, because it is very unpredictable, so at least book some change. It's also a hedge for my YG long.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 11:28:48 AM

RACE EXTENDED FOR US REFUELING PLANE

DJ- Air Force's long-awaited $20 billion-plus plan to buy aerial-refueling planes envisions funding development of competing aircraft through at least 2009 before choosing either Boeing or a team led by Northrop Grumman.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 11:29:06 AM

I have buy orders in the upper 58 area and I'm short at 60.25. Stop 60.425 (buy to close 58.90)

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 11:27:59 AM

BP ALASKA TO RESTART PART OF PRUDHOE

DJ- BP Exploration receives clearance from Transportation Department to restart portion of Eastern Operating Area of Prudhoe Bay to run cleaning pigs and conduct in-line inspection of crude oil transit line. Company expects eastern part of field producing 150,000 barrels a day within a week.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 11:27:22 AM

If this QM bounce fails, it should test overnight lows at 59.55, and probably head down to 58.85. Resistance is 60.40, 60.75 and 60.90.

Jane Fox : 9/25/2006 11:23:51 AM

TICKS +1000

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 11:16:41 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 9/25/2006 11:12:16 AM

Taking a quick look at the market I see that YM and DOW are stll struggling to hold onto the July uptrend line. If this double-test holds then the bulls will have something to cheer about. Otherwise look for ES/SPX to be the next one to test their uptrend lines. The move down this morning looks impulsive and by the measure the current bounce should be just a correction of it. Shorting it with a stop at a new daily high would be the right play. I'll check back in later.

Jane Fox : 9/25/2006 11:03:06 AM

TICKS +800.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 11:02:28 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 11:01:57 AM

Semis are doing a bit of a comebcak. As I said, don't get married, trade it.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 10:55:19 AM

Evergreen Solar (ESLR) $7.95 -1.11% Link ... Breaks August's lows.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 10:53:03 AM

ES 20 dma is 1322.75. Needs to hold.

Jane Fox : 9/25/2006 10:55:47 AM

ES's daily lows so far are 1321.50 and I think are the lows for now. WE will see an oversold bounce before new daily lows are made.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 10:52:26 AM

Just be aware that CC tomorrow could give a lift, so don't get married to positions. Trade it.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 10:51:43 AM

SUPERIOR ENERGY TO BUY WARRIOR

DJ- Superior agrees to pay $175 million in cash and 5.3 million shares, putting the deal's value at $358 million, or $26.33 for each Warrior Energy share. That is an 84% premium to Friday's closing price.

SPN $22.30 -14.82% Link

WARR $23.74 +65.55% Link

Jane Fox : 9/25/2006 10:47:05 AM

ES's PDL is 1321 so expect support at that level.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 10:45:12 AM

PAKISTAN NOT SURE IF BIN LADEN IS DEAD

DJ- Pakistan says it has no information on where Osama bin Laden is hiding or whether he is dead or alive, amid recent speculation the al-Qaida leader has died of typhoid following reports in a French newspaper over the weekend.

Jane Fox : 9/25/2006 10:39:54 AM

NQ barely breaks its PDL but the bears are not able to sustain the break. Link

Jane Fox : 9/25/2006 10:36:35 AM

Direction is getting much clearer now. AD line -413, AD volume falling, Vix to new daily highs and TRIN at 1.30

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 10:34:15 AM

Halliburton (HAL) $27.51 -2.48% Link ... probes its 10/27/05 relative low close of $27.55.

Hearing some chatter that the company's spinoff of its KBR unit may not be as well received by market as initially thought. Slowing construction spending in Iraq and military contracts cited.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 10:26:39 AM

ALCOA TO SELL HOME-EXTERIORS UNIT

DJ- Ply Gem, majority owned by a private-investment firm, agrees to pay about $305 million in a deal set to close in 4Q. Alcoa unit, which had 2005 revenue of $600 million, makes aluminum siding.

AA $26.91 -2.10% Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 10:23:53 AM

WALGREEN 4Q NET CLIMBS 25%

DJ- Drug-store operator posts net income of $412.3 million, or 41c a share, as net sales jump 16% to $12.17 billion. Analysts expected EPS of 41c. Firm says Wal-Mart generic-drug plan "won't significantly impact" business.

WAG $45.21 -3.60% Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 10:22:06 AM

YAHOO TO REQUIRE ITS US WORKERS TO TAKE TIME OFF

DJ- Yahoo will require its U.S. workers to take vacation or unpaid time off the week between Christmas and New Year's, in a move that could signal concern about hitting some financial goals for the year.

YHOO $25.56 +0.15% Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 10:14:42 AM

Dow Jones Home Construction ($DJUSHB) 655.97 +1.82% Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 10:14:08 AM

TRAN is now below 20 dma. That index never confirmed the DOW highs throughout the entire rally. Just like the SOX. That doesn;t mean we won't get a rally tomorrow as they ramp up EOQ and dress up portfolios, but if the SOX does not wake up, there is more downside ahead at some point.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 10:11:21 AM

The drop in oil is old news and priced into the August rally already. Now it's economic weakness.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 10:10:39 AM

OVERSEAS SHIPHOLDING TO BUY MARITRANS

DJ- Overseas Shipholding says it will acquire transport company Maritrans in a deal valued at $455 million, including debt. Overseas to pay $37.50 a share for Maritrans, a 47% premium to Friday's closing price.

OSG $59.20 -2.55% Link

TUG $36.56 +43.37% Link

Jane Fox : 9/25/2006 10:07:27 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Median sales prices of existing homes fell from year-ago levels in August for the first time in 11 years and just the sixth time in the past 38 years, the National Association of Realtors said Monday.

Sales of existing homes fell 0.5% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.30 million, the industry group said.

Sales have fallen five months in a row and in nine of the past 12 months. Sales are down 12.6% in the past year. It's the lowest sales pace since January 2004.

The median price of an existing home fell 1.7% year-over-year to $225,000. It's the first time since April 1995 that median prices have fallen on a year-over-year basis. It's the second largest decline in the 30-year history of the realtors' survey, exceeded only by a 2.1% drop in November 1990.

The price correction is a welcome development," said David Lereah, chief economists for the realtors group.

"The price drop has stopped the bleeding," Lereah said. "Sales have hit bottom," he said. "Sellers are finally getting it."

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 10:07:06 AM

CRUDE FUTURES FALL BELOW $60

DJ- Oil declines 2% to drop under the $60 a barrel benchmark amid technical selling as BP late Friday gets approval to restart output in the shuttered eastern Prudhoe Bay field to clean and test pipelines.

Jane Fox : 9/25/2006 10:05:50 AM

NASDAQ DECLINERS OUTNUMBER ADVANCERS 13 TO 11
* NYSE ADVANCERS IN LINE WITH DECLINERS

Jane Fox : 9/25/2006 10:04:42 AM

AD volume is making new daily lows but not aggresively like some days. Ad line is also below 0 but not just barely. I think the best trade right now is no trade. Things are not too clear yet. Link

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 10:04:42 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 9/25/2006 10:01:28 AM

* AUG. HOME MEDIAN PRICE OFF 1.7%, 1ST DROP IN 11 YEARS
* AUG. EXISTING-HOME SALES FALL 0.5% TO 6.30 MILLION PACE

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 10:00:40 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jane Fox : 9/25/2006 9:58:00 AM

ES's new daily lows are been confirmed by the VIX's new daily highs.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 9:57:43 AM

Sorry, homes sales, thanks, Jane.

Jane Fox : 9/25/2006 9:56:04 AM

Remember Exiting home sales out at 10:00

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 9:56:00 AM

TRAN is down, even though oil is down. Year lows are more than year highs for NSDAQ. Semis are weak. The housing starts better be good.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 9:55:44 AM

Apex Silver (AMEX:SIL) Selling Mine Stake To Sumitomo ... Reuters Story Link

SIL $15.05 +1.41% Link

Jane Fox : 9/25/2006 9:55:23 AM

AD line is now at new daily lows and so is AD volume.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 9:51:49 AM

Swing trade put establish stop alert on the Baker Hughes BHI Nov $60 Puts (BHI-WL) to $65.15 on the underlying shares.

BHI $62.44 -1.06%

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 9:47:17 AM

Somebody keeps on dumping semi stocks, slowly but surely, on every rally. Retail traders do not do that, they chase semis.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 9:42:53 AM

Again, SMH is lagging.

Jane Fox : 9/25/2006 9:42:14 AM

AD line is +512 and AD volume is above 0 climbing.

Jeff Bailey : 9/25/2006 9:40:31 AM

Federal Court Judge Certifies Tobacco Case As Class Action

DJ- A federal court judge Monday has granted class-action status to a racketeering lawsuit against Philip Morris USA and several other large makers of "light" and "low tar" cigarettes, according to a posting on the PACER Web site.

The full opinion is not immediately available.

PACER is the official document retrieval Web site of the federal court system.

The ruling, which was issued by Judge Jack B. Weinstein in Brooklyn, N.Y., will allow the smokers of light cigarettes to pursue their claims against the industry as a group.

The smokers, who filed their case in 2004, are seeking as much as $200 billion in damages, or the value of the "light" cigarettes they bought. They allege the tobacco industry defrauded them by making them think cigarette brands labeled "light" or "low tar" were safer than regular cigarettes when they are not.

Since the case is being brought under federal racketeering law, the amount of damages in the case could be tripled.

The tobacco companies are likely to seek an appeal of the class certification decision to the Second Circuit Court of Appeals in New York.

In addition to Altria Group Inc.'s (MO) Philip Morris USA, the defendants in the case include Reynolds American Inc.'s (RAI) R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Co., Loews Corp.'s (LTR) Lorillard Tobacco unit, Vector Group Ltd.'s (VGR) Liggett Group, and British American Tobacco PLC's (BTI) British American Tobacco (Investments) Ltd.

For Altria, the ruling holds a special significance. The New York company has been waiting for the U.S. litigation environment to clear so it can go ahead with a corporate restructuring that is expected to include the spin off of its 88% stake in Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT).

It is unclear what effect, if any, this decision will have on the company's plans.

Jane Fox : 9/25/2006 9:36:03 AM

Dateline WSJ - A federal judge granted class-action status to "light" cigarette smokers for a potential $200 billion lawsuit against tobacco companies.

Jane Fox : 9/25/2006 9:32:01 AM

* FISHER: FED WATCHING HOUSING SO IT DOESN'T INFECT ECONOMY
* FISHER SAYS 'SERIOUS CORRECTION TAKING PLACE' IN HOUSING
* FISHER; CONSUMERS WILL GET SHOT IN ARM FROM LOWER GAS PRICES
* FISHER: BEST GUAGES OF INFLATION 'ARE NOT NOT COMFORTING'
* FISHER SAYS ECONOMY, OUTSIDE HOUSING, IS HEALTHY AND ROBUST
* FED'S FISHER SAYS MORE WORRIED ABOUT INFLATION THAN SLOWDOWN

Jane Fox : 9/25/2006 9:28:49 AM

YM is also still in its bearish divergence but the MACD has no divergence and the RSI has only a small one. Jury is still out. Link

Jane Fox : 9/25/2006 9:25:48 AM

ES is still in the bear wedge but it has not confirmed. Even though the MACD and RSI are still in bearish divergences, until the bear wedge confirms I will not call this chart bearish. Link

Keene Little : 9/25/2006 9:19:58 AM

It looks like the nice steady rise in the futures all night was suddenly sold into right after YM opened for trading at 8:20. There's still a bullish bias to the futures but that quick sell off makes me wonder if we're not seeing selling into the rallies. If so then we should be doing the same. Notice that YM made it up to its previously broken uptrend line from Sept 7th and was promptly sold off. Watch for this kind of behavior now. Link

I'm on the road so I'll check in whenever I get a connection and it's safe to post. (Talking while driving is dangerous enough but typing and driving is even worse.)

Jane Fox : 9/25/2006 9:08:46 AM

Tbonds bullishly broke its PDH overnight. Bonds have had a very nice run since its June 28th double bottom.

Natural Gas continues to make new 3 year lows so it certainly looks like traders are not worried too much about hurricanes this year.

Oil also continues to make new yearly lows with an overnight low of 59.525. I'm not sure when I seen a market this oversold.

Gold looks like it is doing a sideways move before it takes another move downward. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 8:55:16 AM

NQ 1647 is support followed by 1643/1644, if you want to play the open euphoria.

Jane Fox : 9/25/2006 8:45:00 AM

Good morning all and I hope you all had a wonderful weekend. Equity markets making higher highs and lows means a bullish overnight session. However, notice how YM had made a double top at its PDH. This is the line in the sand and it is bullish above and neutral below. Of course if YM breaks if PDH you will want to see ES do the same thing. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 8:38:58 AM

As for QM, I expect it to hit 58.65/58.85, where it should find more solid support. 59.55 is just S1 and that could be tested again.

Marc Eckelberry : 9/25/2006 8:36:09 AM

Here comes the end of quarter dressing. ES R is 1330.75/1331.50. They are going to nab some shorts just ahead of the Housing Starts at 10.

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