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Keene Little : 10/3/2006 12:42:15 AM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 11:51:52 PM

Monday's action saw no sector bullish % status changes.

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 11:33:49 PM

Sector Index Seasonality Strategy Calendar at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 10/2/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 9:28:40 PM

This should help oil find a floor.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 9:24:55 PM


Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 5:54:45 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 5:54:40 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch with early notes of 20DayNet% and bullish seasonal sectors at this Link (I'm giving the "banks" green arrows because of their low beta)

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 4:39:08 PM

Closed QM long at even.

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 5:54:24 PM

09/13/06 to 09/29/06 Sector Bell Curve at this Link

(see 03:54:45 Post first).

This bell curve is a little "fuzzy" due to horizontal width limitations, but will be shown in tonight's Market Wrap.

Correction: On 09/13/06, the SPX closed 1,318.07 (not 1,237)

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 4:08:15 PM

Shorts should cover soon as they are going nowhere, But they wil try and re-enter around 61.30/61.40 if we bounce. YG held s1 and QM s2. Pretty basic day.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 4:07:13 PM

Long 60.90, lower again to 60.875.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 4:07:00 PM

No one wants to bid it at 61 and sell it at 60.90. Boring. Stop is still holding since it is only with the last. I might give some small room.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 3:58:49 PM

QQQQ 200 dma is at 40 and will probably get hit soon. That would be close to 1641/1643 NQ target

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 3:57:09 PM

QM long 60.90, raise stop to even.

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 3:54:45 PM

07/18/06 to 09/13/06 Sector Bell Curve at this Link .This time interval would be the SPX "low" prior to achieving "bull confirmed" status on 09/13/06.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 3:48:20 PM

Have to go. If stopped, next signal is long 60.30, stop 60.20. These are all tight stops, but I know where to find them.

Keene Little : 10/2/2006 3:47:48 PM

What was support for ES at 1343 has now become resistance. As long as that resistance level holds I'm thinking you'll want to stay short.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 3:43:55 PM

Doesn't look very promising, but we keep it there. There seems to be some reluctancy to let it go much further down. Again, it's worth a shot, but we need to get back above 61 soon, or we just close the trade.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 3:41:50 PM

lower stop to 60.875

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 3:38:31 PM

QM long 60.90, raise stop to even.

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 3:30:35 PM

YM 11,756 now ...

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 3:30:21 PM

TICKS back to +1000

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 3:27:50 PM

Bear Stearns (BSC) $142.49 +1.70% ... retraces 80.9% of its 04/20/06 high to 06/14/06 relative low.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 3:22:59 PM

stepping away, this trade is only for cowboys, scalp it at 61.15 and 61.40 if we bounce.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 3:20:25 PM

Make sure your stops are set at last.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 3:21:05 PM

Quick scalp, very tight stop and we will see if they hold 60.90. Worth a try , deeply oversold 5, 30 and 60. If that gets stopped out, next entry is 60.30.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 3:19:18 PM

Long QM 60.90, stop 60.825.

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 3:15:56 PM

YM Short Stop Alert ... 11,742

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 3:13:28 PM

YM short lower stop alert to break even

YM 11,734 ...

Keene Little : 10/2/2006 3:12:24 PM

ES has been finding support at its 30-min 100 and 130-pma's at 1339.50-1341.50 but I'm not so sure it's going to hold. The next possible support continues to be 1337 especially if you see short term divergences there. At that point we'll have a 3-wave move down and if that's going to be it for the corrective pullback then you'll want to try a long for the next rally leg. I'm not quite ready to believe that since I have a bearish bias for this week but it's entirely possible and I try not to let my bias get in the way of what's really happening.

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 3:12:10 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 3:02:32 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 2:57:17 PM

U.S. Oil Fund (USO) $55.38 -2.51% ... WEEKLY Pivot = $56.35, S1= $54.70.

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 2:55:40 PM

Evergreen Solar (ESLR) $7.98 -3.85% ... testing August/September relative lows.

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 2:55:48 PM

Gold at 600.20. I think it could make it back to test lows at 576.

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 2:53:57 PM

TICKS -800 - it has been a while since we have seen that.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 2:51:57 PM

As you can see on this chart. QM has held S2 the past few days on all tests. It must hold it today (60.90): Link

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 2:34:52 PM

If QM loses 60.90, next support will be 60.30 which I would buy. For now, 60.90 is holding.

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 2:34:24 PM

YM Day traders' 5-minute interval chart at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 2:28:25 PM

Depends on oil finding a bottom here at 60.90, S2.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 2:28:02 PM

We should hit 1641 or so by tomorrow where we coud find support.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 2:27:38 PM

Back. Once NQ lost 1661, it was over. Sell it on rallies (10 dma).

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 2:25:55 PM

YM short entry alert here at 11,742, stop 11,756, target 11,705

Jim Brown : 10/2/2006 2:22:49 PM

ER Short The ER hit 724.40 this morning and came within 4 points of my initial target of 720. I am still looking for a lower low and today's ER action suggests my second target of 705 is likely to be hit.

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 2:13:18 PM

U.S. Oil Fund (USO) $55.78 -1.81% ... not much of a bid from session low of $55.40 if the Nigerian news brought buyer boycott for broader market.

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 2:10:43 PM

BP: Production Restored At Lisburne Field Near Prudhoe Bay

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 2:08:31 PM

Militants Kill 5 Govt. Troops In Southern Nigeria -Army

DJ- A militant attack in Nigeria's oil-rich southern delta left five soldiers dead and nine missing, an army spokesman said Monday.

Maj. Sagir Musa said 15 soldiers were on a routine boat patrol in a delta outlet in Nigeria's Rivers state when 70 militants attacked, sinking two military boats. One of the soldiers managed to escape and raise an alarm, he said.

Keene Little : 10/2/2006 2:05:38 PM

If we make the assumption that the top is now in, which could be a bit premature, then the uptrend lines from July and Sept 11th should only act as minor support. But watch for bounces from these lines if and when ES drops down to them--1333 and then 1328. Link

The move down from last week's high is not a clean one and has me wondering if it's just a pullback that will lead to new market highs yet. That's still a distinct possibility and in that case watch for potential support at a Fib projection for this leg down at 1337.

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 2:05:26 PM


DJ- Price is below a $975,000 sale Friday afternoon and several sales in late September at a record $1,000,000. Nybot seat is now offered at $1.025 million and bid at $940,000. Current seat prices compare with $360,000 a year ago.

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 1:54:10 PM

The only market to not make new daily lows is Er.

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 1:52:24 PM

My goodness gracious what the heck is happening. I stepped away for a while and came back to huge red candles.

Keene Little : 10/2/2006 1:49:16 PM

The DOW in particular is still in its trading range so nothing particularly bearish there. The small caps and techs don't look so good.

Keene Little : 10/2/2006 1:47:56 PM

Looks like the break--the selling into rallies appears to have begun. Follow their lead. Only caution here is that we're still within head fake territory.

Keene Little : 10/2/2006 1:41:55 PM

Hmm, a bit of selling starting to hit that looks a little more than what we've been seeing today. Watch ES 1343 as a break of that level is the critical one for the bulls (more than a head fake break).

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 1:39:48 PM

I have to go. Watch 1661 support, if it breaks, I would not bother fishing for longs until 1640.75/1644.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 1:38:14 PM

As I said, the open news comes back at the close. Bearish bias remained.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 1:21:29 PM

Welcome to the world of esignal where they charge for every little extra thing. I am using quotetracker a lot more now, if you register, they give you fee historical right off the IB feed, here is a QM real time chart daily chart just using IB and QUote tracker: Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 1:16:17 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 1:10:58 PM

Thanks Marc! My eyes glossed over more than a week ago as I scrambled Monday afternoon to just get my QCharts back via Esignal switch.

I thought my monthly subscription fee had fallen, but thought it was further sign of inflationary pressures easing. (grin)

Tab Gilles : 10/2/2006 1:07:55 PM

$SPXA50-20-ema/$SPX Link

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 1:06:57 PM

Jeff, you have to sign up for it at esignalas of 10/1, all delayed futures are $5. I suggest you use Quotetracker and IB. If you have Ameritrade, it will give you free historical off the IB feed.

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 1:04:04 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 1:00:38 PM

I'm still not getting a NYMEX feed for unleaded or heating oil via QCharts.

Keene Little : 10/2/2006 12:57:54 PM

A rally in the DOW, and to a somewhat lesser extent in SPX, while we see the techs and small caps in the red is a purely defensive posture by the buyers today. They want to be in something that offers them the liquidity in order to be able to bail in a hurry without driving prices down excessively.

This is not bullish market action today regardless of the DOW and SPX being in the green. But that doesn't mean we have to start selling off today, tomorrow or whenever. It does mean be very cautious about the long side right now. I don't like the conditions for trading and am just watching this.

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 12:57:08 PM

S&P 500 Index (SPX) 1,338.12 +0.16% ... updated daily interval bar chart with my "bull fit 38.2%" at this Link

Other than 1,371, not really finding any correlations between this technique and WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot levels.

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 12:48:05 PM

Went back through my MONTHLY Pivot Matrix ... Dec 2003 then January 2004 did have SPX trading MONTHLY R2s.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 12:40:17 PM

You just need to remember that if you use 2 point stops for ES, use 5 points for NQ. You will find NQ to be much more user friendly.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 12:38:55 PM

I have declared a personal moratorium on trading ES for a few days. I find NQ to be so much more fluid technically. ES is overtraded and overhedged and the chart just doesn't play well unless you have wide stops.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 12:36:47 PM

I have found that for the most part, bad news at the open ususally comes back at the close, even if there is a bounce. So keep that in mind as we get closer to the close. They will run some stops, but I doubt it will be a bullish day for NQ in the end. I could be wrong of course, but these are the odds I am playing today.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 12:34:08 PM

QM bids above 61.50 and NQ loses the quest for 5 dma at 1673. Support is 1667.

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 12:35:59 PM

I've been trying to buy some durable goods at Home Depot this past week, but they are low on inventory of washing machines/dryers. Sales person told me they quit ordering about a month ago for year-end inventory count, but should start building back inventory in about two weeks.

I want to buy these big ticket items on their HD credit card, 10% off on first purchase, 0% for 6-months.

Energy save fiberglass front door too! I didn't know there were tax credits for stuff with the "energy save" emblem on them.

FREEEE Money for 6-MONTHS!

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 12:31:50 PM

Does anyone have a subscription to sentimentrader.com?

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 12:31:13 PM


Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 12:30:50 PM

Sure enough Gold found support at its overnight low (well just below) and has retraced.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 12:29:57 PM

This chart shows that we are nearing cash on hand for mutual funds to the bearsih levels of 2000: Link
It's from 9/11/06, so I am pretty sure it is even lower after the big rally into EOM. Another reason to be extremely cautious if long. The path of least resistance will be down pretty soon if not now.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 12:25:03 PM

And small caps.

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 12:24:09 PM

DAteline CNN - Multiple people have been shot at an Amish school in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, a state police spokesman says.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 12:24:41 PM

And we just had one. Bearish bias for techs, no doubt now.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 12:23:34 PM

This data (ISM) will trump any rally at the close, I think, so bulls are buying time. That is just my feeling, but it is a treacherous day, so stay out if you are not certain. The wisest move is to wait for tick fades.

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 12:20:27 PM

Independent Data on Fund Flows and Holdings (September 27, 2006) Link

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 12:19:51 PM

Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Manufacturing in the U.S. expanded less than forecast last month as factories cut payrolls and reduced inventories, contributing to a slowdown in the economy. The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index dropped to 52.9, the lowest since May 2005. A separate report from the Commerce Department showed that spending on home construction fell for a fifth straight month. Manufacturers are throttling back as housing and consumer spending slow, giving the economy little momentum heading into the fourth quarter. The report also showed price increases moderated, bearing out the Federal Reserve's forecast that slower growth will help control inflation. "There has been a rise in business caution in the last couple of weeks," said Gary Bigg, an economist at Banc of America Securities LLC in New York. "We see the economy growing below average." Fed policy "will be unchanged at least through the middle of next year," he said.

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 12:18:43 PM

I posted the mutual fund/ETF data last week.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 12:18:13 PM

QM bid and YG is back above 20 dma and 200 ema. It takes nerve to buy those YG dips, but the trend is up, so stick to it until proven otherwise.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 12:16:17 PM

I will go back and check that data.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 12:15:27 PM

Funds are at their lowest cash level in years, 3.3%, if I remember data I read last week. The only ammo left here is hedgies pushing performance to the max, but I don't think they have much company as many funds are fully invested.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 12:13:32 PM

QM is battling to get above 61.50 and NQ is battling to get above 1672/1673.

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 12:13:15 PM

Not sure about that Keene ... mutual fund data and M2 doesn't suggest the "general public" has shown up yet.

Keene Little : 10/2/2006 12:08:25 PM

It would appear that by the relative strength of the DOW vs. SPX, and certainly the techs, that there will be an effort to hold the DOW up, if not drive up to that all important all-time high. This will keep the public interested in buying the stock market and enable big money to offload their inventory.

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 12:02:25 PM

Exiting a YM long here at 11,783 from 11,748

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 12:00:54 PM

NQ 5 dma is 1673 and it is being sold, indicating to me that momentum has shifted to the bear camp ever so slightly as long as we stay below that.

Keene Little : 10/2/2006 12:00:26 PM

I'm back. I see ES has bounced back up to the top of its little down-channel within the trading range I showed earlier (10:20). The bulls want to see this continue and break above 1350 whereas the bears want to see it fail here below 1348. Still wait and see.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 11:59:02 AM

There are 2 types of days: ranging and trending. Once you identify, you must stick to the structure until proven otherwise.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 11:58:07 AM

QM slight bid, YG back above 20 dma. NQ loses 1672. This a not a trending day for equities so you should sell R and buy S and not stay in a trade too long.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 11:55:31 AM

NQ 50% wed/frid last week 1672 is R and bulls need to get above it.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 11:53:37 AM

QM down 2.46%, dollar down .48% and YG down .31%.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 11:51:17 AM

YG 20 dma 602.50.

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 11:51:08 AM

MACD is not showing any bearishness. Link

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 11:49:46 AM

Goldbugs need to step up to the plate now or Gold will break its PDL just like Oil did.

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 11:48:15 AM

VIX is confirming this bullishness.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 11:47:52 AM

1675 is R.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 11:47:45 AM

SOX was green all morning and that put a floor at 1661

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 11:46:18 AM

In any case I think it is most prudent to stay on the long side for now.

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 11:45:50 AM

Internals are more bullish than they were earlier but still not crystal clear, the way I like to see them.

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 11:43:36 AM

Looks like Gold is influenced more from the Oil market today than from the $.

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 11:42:55 AM

Gold hits a low today so far 603.50 (almost right at its overnight low) and since Oil is now breaking its PDL and getting oversold AGAIN I think Gold will start to stabilize.

Tab Gilles : 10/2/2006 11:42:07 AM

Gilead to acquire Myogen for $2.5 billion Link

Here's another name to look at in the same field dealing with pulmonary arterial hypertension. CoTherix (CTRX)

CoTherix, Inc., a development stage company, engages in biopharmaceutical operations. It focuses on licensing, developing, and commercializing therapeutic products for the treatment of cardiopulmonary and other chronic diseases. The company offers Ventavis inhalation solution for the treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension in patients with NYHA Class III or IV symptoms. CoTherix markets its products primarily in the United States, European countries, and Australia. The company, formerly known as Exhale Therapeutics, Inc., was incorporated in 2000 and changed its name to CoTherix, Inc. in 2003. CoTherix is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

Link Link

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 11:40:50 AM

Oil breaks its PDL.

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 11:38:13 AM

Oil's PDL is 61.475 and today's low so far is 61.425.

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 11:36:15 AM

Gold and Oil are both falling but have not yet broken their respective PDLs.

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 11:35:44 AM

Sept US Auto Sales Seen Flat On Year

DJ- Promotions and a dip in gasoline prices are propping up demand for cars despite signs of a slowing economy, a situation that likely is leading to relatively flat year-over-year U.S. auto sales in September.

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 11:33:29 AM


DJ- The FDA says it's safe to eat raw spinach, except in bagged brands subject to recent recall, whose supplier is traced to Natural Selection Foods in California. Recall follows an E.coli outbreak that infected 187 people and killed one woman.

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 11:32:55 AM


DJ- Turned off by government corruption, Brazilian voters deny President Lula da Silva the majority of the vote he needed to win re-election in yesterday's first round of balloting, setting the stage for a runoff with centrist Geraldo Alckmin.

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 11:28:00 AM

I am out of my YM short - this is taking too long for me.

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 11:27:27 AM


Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 11:27:15 AM


DJ- Nokia plans to announce a patent-licensing deal with Trimble Navigation, a pioneer in navigation technology whose patents could give the Finnish mobile phone maker leverage in negotiations with other companies.

NOK $19.74 +0.25% Link

TRMB $45.90 -2.50% Link

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 11:26:30 AM

CBOT 30-Day Fed Fund futures for September 2006 will be cash settled this morning at a final settlement price of 94.745, implying an average effective overnight federal funds rate of 5.255 percent during the delivery month.

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 11:24:58 AM

ZG is now about to tag its overnight low at 603.30 and should find support and retrace a tad.

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 11:22:23 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 11:16:59 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 11:14:42 AM


Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 11:08:20 AM

Since OIl broke its overnight low I have a suspicion that Natural Gas will as well.

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 11:07:04 AM

NQ finds resistance at its PDH. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 11:05:18 AM

Nickel, copper and gold are up and that is telling you something. Rotation?

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 11:03:30 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 11:02:43 AM

QM better hold here or we will see 60.90 and possibly 60.30.

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 11:02:16 AM

TICKS reach +1000 and 3 min CCI is over +200 so a YM short here may give you a few $ in your pocket.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 11:02:12 AM

ON a sell-off, QM has key support at 60.30, but so far 61.90 is holding.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 11:01:12 AM

QM finds support at S1 and if that holds (61.90), eqities could struggle. Commodities are back a little and that is attracting some interest.

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 10:59:30 AM


DJ- European stocks nudge up on resource-sector players like Rio Tinto, though shares in online gamers, including PartyGaming, are discarded in London after a U.S. legal move that could well cripple the industry's revenues.

RTP $193.82 +2.20% Link

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 10:58:27 AM

OIl has broken its overnight low and it will be interesting to see if Gold follows suit. ZG's overnight low was 603.30. Marc has been talking about the fall in the US$, which should indeed be putting a bid under Gold. Only time will tell which has the most influence over gold lately.

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 10:56:10 AM


DJ- Morgan Stanley's purchase of the small commercial bank gives it the ability to offer structured derivative products, home mortgages and corporate loans to Chinese companies. Chinese regulators have stopped foreign investors seeking to acquire local securities firms.

MS $72.82 -0.12% Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 10:54:41 AM


DJ- Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has no plans to issue an oil market statement, an official confirms, after the oil producer group Friday considered releasing a press statement linked to output cuts by some members.

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 10:53:17 AM


DJ- Downgrade in stock's investment rating from buy is due to the stock's current price, says Citi, which sees little possibility for near-term revenue topping expectations.

AAPL $74.64 -3.03% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 10:50:22 AM


DJ- Shares surge 14% as The Wall Street Journal reports private-equity suitors are close to striking a deal to buy casino giant Harrah's Entertainment. Firm also agrees to swap land on the Las Vegas Strip with Boyd Gaming (BYD).

HET $76.10 +14.52% Link

Keene Little : 10/2/2006 10:49:30 AM

I've got to run a few errands so I'll be back in about in hour or so.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 10:45:24 AM

Buyers are not interested. They will need some short covering to get things going, otherwise we could see NQ 1640/1643.

Keene Little : 10/2/2006 10:44:30 AM

We're certainly right at the place where we're going to find out shortly who blinks. In the meantime we wait and see.

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 10:40:34 AM

I was really hoping that the internals would be easier to read today but alas they are not. These two particularly, of late, have not been either bullish or bearish, just . nadda! Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 10:38:21 AM


DJ- Mortgage giants are adequately capitalized as of June 30, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight says. Accounting scandals at both companies have led their regulator to impose even higher capital standards.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 10:36:14 AM

QM drop and this is the chance for NQ to stage a reversal. They better grab it or bears will get bolder. Watch 1666.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 10:33:47 AM

Nope, SMH red again. 1666 is being sold.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 10:30:25 AM

SOX and SMH now in bull sync and we could get a move to pivot for NQ at 1674.

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 10:28:41 AM

S&P 500 (SPX.X) 60-minute interval chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Overlapping support/resistance at 1,322.50/1,347

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 10:28:29 AM

Any bounce that keeps NQ below 1666 is suspect, although 1661 is holding. One gets the feeling there is some ammo waiting for a rally to offload inventory. A long above 1661 is an ok play, just don't fall in love with it. Better yet is staying in cash and accumulating gold on pullbacks.

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 10:25:41 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Factory activity in the United States decelerated in September, the Institute for Supply Management reported Friday. The ISM index fell to 52.9% in September from 54.5% in August. This is the lowest level since May 2005. The decline was sharper than expected. The consensus forecast of estimates collected by Marketwatch was for the index to fall to 53.7. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. New orders remained steady at 54.2%. The employment index dropped to 49.4% from 54.0%. The price index dropped sharply to 61.0% from 73.0%. This is the lowest level since July 2005. (Corrects new orders index steady at 54.2%)

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 10:25:09 AM

Equities are reacting lock step with the dollar. Currencies tell the story first.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 10:22:44 AM

Dollar losses are accelerating.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 10:21:35 AM

YG support is 604.30, 603.70 and 602.60.

Keene Little : 10/2/2006 10:20:52 AM

This is the bullish pattern I showed on Friday for ES--the sideways trading range could be ending with this pullback and then a rally out of it. It needs to break below 1343 and hold below in order to negate this bullish resolution. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 10:19:53 AM

The dollar pullback is helping gold hold up despite QM drop. YG closed its gap.

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 10:18:38 AM

... and so does Gold.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 10:17:37 AM

Oil drops.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 10:16:21 AM

SOX up, but SMH losing support.

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 10:16:07 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Spending on U.S. construction projects unexpectedly rose by 0.3% in August despite a 1.5% drop in outlays on private residential building projects, the Commerce Department said Monday.

Economists had predicted construction spending would fall by a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.1% in August.

A 3.4% increase in private nonresidential construction spending fueled the overall gain, Commerce Department data show.

Spending on manufacturing facilities, power plants, commercial buildings and office projects posted big gains in August, pushing private nonresidential construction spending to an all-time high.

Private residential construction spending, meanwhile, posted its fifth consecutive monthly drop, falling by 1.5%. The last time spending on homes rose was in March.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 10:15:31 AM

USD down .40% versus EUR.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 10:15:00 AM

Everyone holding support including oil and QM ticks are now being watched very carefully. Higher oil is not wanted now.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 10:12:35 AM

And unless you want to lose your shirt, never believe what a spokesperson for the NAR says.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 10:10:58 AM

Pending sales is a misguided number without the cancellations, which we saw last week were at record highs.

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 10:08:59 AM


Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 10:07:34 AM

Watch NQ 1666.

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 10:07:23 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Pending sales of U.S. existing homes rose by 4.3% in August, indicating the housing market may be stabilizing, the National Association of Realtors said Monday.

Pending-home sales are down 14.1% in the past year, the real estate industry group said. "Our sense is that home sales may have reached a low in August," said David Lereah, chief economist for the NAR in a statement.

"With fewer new listings coming on the market, we should be able to draw down the inventory supply early next year to the point where home prices will rise, but at a slower pace than historic norms," Lereah said.

The pending-sales index rose 9.2% in the West, 4% in the South and 3.6% in the Northeast. The index was flat in the Midwest.

Sales are recorded as "pending" when a sales contract is signed; they are recorded as "sold" when the sale closes, usually one or two months later.

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 10:05:37 AM

AD volume is now above 0.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 10:05:21 AM

NQ held on to 1661 and is staging a reversal.

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 10:05:19 AM

TICKS +800 amazing!!!

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 10:04:58 AM

The bulls were able to defend 1343.75. Amazing.

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 10:03:59 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 10:03:41 AM

The bulls are putting up a fight here and right now I'm not sure of either side. The bears had their chance and they seem to have lost steam.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 10:03:33 AM

QM at support.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 10:02:24 AM

Dollar takes a hit.

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 10:00:24 AM


DJ- Wire-transfer services provider approves a share buyback program of up to $1 billion of its stock and completes its spinoff from First Data. It expects its shares to start trading on the NYSE under the symbol 'WU' on Monday.

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 9:55:17 AM

Index Pivot Matrix for this week and October's MONTHLY Pivot Levels at this Link

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 9:53:12 AM

The VIX is telling me ES will be making new daily lows shortly.

Keene Little : 10/2/2006 9:51:38 AM

With prices consolidating sideways since last Wednesday it continues to look potentially bullish. If it is to be bullish then we should see the lows of the recent consolidation hold. Otherwise the alternative interpretation is that we have a rolling top which will see prices start to accelerate lower. Nothing to do but let price be our guide here.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 9:51:15 AM

Line in the sand is COMP 2245/2248. We are close.

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 9:50:40 AM

VIX making new daily highs is telling me ES will not be making new daily highs soon.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 9:49:15 AM

Another downgrade of a big tech cap, AAPL today by Citigroup. But this time, no EOQ to hold things up. Nevertheless, we still have the ISM and the SOX is marginally up on sales news for the semi industry. Unless you went short at highs, I would not initiate here. Gold is holding steady above 20 dma. Watch 53.70 number for ISM.

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 9:47:19 AM

Myogen (MYOG) $51.42 +46.57% Link ... Agrees to be acquired by Gilead Sciences (GILD) $65.01 -5.46% for $2.5 billion.

Reuters Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/2/2006 9:43:37 AM

Biotechnology Index (BTK.X) 685.47 +2.36% Link ... pops above its 200-day SMA and out of 4-month base.

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 9:43:00 AM

VIX opens well above its PDH.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/2/2006 9:41:07 AM

watch NQ 1666 and 1661. The big item is ISM at 10.

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 9:39:30 AM

AD line is a bearish -454 and AD volume is falling.

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 9:18:38 AM

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Japan's big manufacturers have grown more confident about the future, the Bank of Japan's tankan survey of business conditions showed Monday, although some economists expressed concern forward-looking sentiment estimates pointed to a looming slowdown.

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 9:18:05 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Biopharmaceutical company Gilead Sciences Inc. on Monday said it agreed to acquire smaller rival Myogen Inc. for about $2.5 billion, a move aimed at gaining ownership of Myogen's lead product candidate, a potential treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension.

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 9:17:47 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Harrah's Entertainment is reportedly in talks to be bought by a group of private-equity firms in what could be one of the biggest leveraged buyout deals ever, according to a published report on Monday.

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 9:16:10 AM

ER and NQ are now making new overnight lows.

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 9:07:30 AM

Overnight Oil and Gold moved in opposite directions, Oil down and Gold up although what we could be seeing is Oil leading and Gold will start a decline from here.

Natural Gas was also bullish overnight but also could be just be lagging Oil.

TBonds were mostly neutral overnight. Link

Jane Fox : 10/2/2006 8:54:24 AM

Good morning everyone. Up until about 5:00EDT the bulls were staging a nice recovery and were in the process of retracing a good portion of Friday's late day selloff. However, that retracement was short lived and by 8:30 the markets had not only made new overnight lows but had also broken their respective PDLs. Link

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