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Tab Gilles : 10/9/2006 11:30:25 PM

Open Positions & Stock watch Link

$NDX / $NAA Link

$NAHGH/$NALOW 10-ema weekly Link

$NDXA50 & $NDXA200 Link Link

Profund Ultra OTC FUND(UOPIX) Link

Profund Ultra SmallCap Fund(UAPIX) Link

Keene Little : 10/9/2006 10:05:38 PM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 10/9/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

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Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 5:25:51 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 5:18:27 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 4:51:15 PM

Biotech HOLDRs (AMEX:BBH) and Biotechnology Index ($BTK.X) components (sorted by name) at this Link ... BBH "outperforms" due to today's action in SHPGY.

Please see American Stock Exchange Link for HOLDRs and Other Products (Product Information, Indexes) composition/weighting.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 4:31:55 PM

Some of you took a long Gold a few days ago at 565. Stops should be raised to 575, or just belwo the 5 DMA. Target is the October 2nd gap at 601.

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 4:22:32 PM

Google to buy YouTube for $1.65 Billion in Stock ...

Sees Deal Closing In 4Q

Deal is GOOG stock; To Be Determined by 30-day Avg. Price

DJ- Google Inc. (GOOG) plans to buy Internet video sharing Web site YouTube Inc. for $1.65 billion in stock.

The deal is regarded as a largely defensive one that leapfrogs Google into a leading role in a burgeoning Internet marketplace.

Moreover, the Google/YouTube deal highlights how Google (GOOG), Yahoo Inc. (YHOO) and other Internet companies are betting heavily on video to attract more customers and generate more advertising revenue.

Indeed, many analysts chiming in on the deal Monday suspect Google's competitors will now seek to buy YouTube-wannabes in order to keep pace with their rival.

Monday, the boards of directors of both Google and YouTube approved the terms of the deal, which was announced after market close.

Keene Little : 10/9/2006 4:00:36 PM

So if I've got the EW count correct we'll see an early morning rally tomorrow which should end this thing. If you don't like trying to pick a top to short wait for a break of uptrend lines. If you're long you'll also want to bring stops up underneath uptrend lines and follow this to its end.

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 3:50:15 PM

Economic Reports tomorrow include.

10:00a.m Aug Wholesale Inventories. Previous: +0.8%.

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 3:40:59 PM

NYSE Launches 2 Indexes Based on IPOs and Spinoffs

DJ- NYSE Group Inc. (NYX) said Monday it launched the NYSE IPOX Composite and the NYSE IPOX U.S. Indexes.

The gauges are meant to provide investors with transparent and systematic exposure to recent IPOs and spinoffs that list on the NYSE.

"We created these indexes to serve as benchmarks that satisfy investors' appetite for enhanced information products and to provide investors with unique insight into this specific segment of the NYSE's $22.6 trillion family of listed companies," NYSE Group President and Co-Chief Operating Officer Catherine R. Kinney said in a statement.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 3:40:00 PM

But we should first retreat to 11750 his week. I don't see us taking out more new highs without that. Just my feeling on this. NQ 1685, YM 11800, ES 1349 should get hit this week. Then long into opex and out before the elections.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 3:36:17 PM

They will probably take the DOW to 12K.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 3:35:22 PM

My guess is democrats win both the house and the senate which will coincide with the end of this rally. It might actually occur around the 23rd/27th of October, but the final blow will be first week of November. Oil could be back at 65 by then.

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 3:33:39 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 3:31:15 PM

1703/1704 is support. I still think we could test 1685 before getting a finishing rally, probably up to QQQQ 42.50 or NQ 1750.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 3:29:33 PM

NQ falls back in the wedge.

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 3:28:06 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 10/9/2006 3:27:24 PM

It's looking more and more like the 5th wave could be playing out in the short term bullish scenario I showed for YM earlier today (12:24 AM below). On that chart I showed an upside projection to the 11970 area which still looks entirely possible with one more push higher. This is how it would look for ES which has a Fib projection at 1364.25-1365.25 as an end point for this rally. Perhaps early tomorrow and then downhill from there. I know, you've heard that before :-) Link

Keene Little : 10/9/2006 3:18:13 PM

The DOW has given up its gigantic 22-point gain today, now trading flat.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 3:16:22 PM

They say what matters is the final hour, well the message is pretty clear. Too much too fast.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 3:13:05 PM

Remind me to never trade equities on a day the bond market is closed. What a disaster.

Keene Little : 10/9/2006 3:10:31 PM

Looks like a little selling suddenly hitting. Not sure if it means much yet. Again, low volume makes it more jumpy.

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 3:09:43 PM

Apex Silver Mines (AMEX:SIL) $14.48 -2.29% ... slips below mid-September relative low.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 3:09:12 PM

It almost makes you not want to use stops anymore.

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 3:03:26 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 2:48:58 PM

Cablevision Systems (CVC) $26.36 +10.15% Link ... The Dolan family, who developed Cablevision into one of the nation's largest cable-television systems operators, confirmed reports of an offer to take the company private. The family said that they would offer $27 in cash for each Cablevision share. The Dolan family currently owns 22.5% of the company's stock, but has 74% voting power through a special class of shares.

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 2:39:00 PM


Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 2:38:25 PM


Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 2:27:56 PM

The TRIN, the internal that kept me from shorting this market, is now making new daily highs.

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 2:22:16 PM

New River Pharmaceuticals (NRPH) $43.27 +65.08% Link ... Shares gapped higher this morning to $38.00 and have built gains after the UK-based pharmacuetical company said it has received conditional approval from U.S. regulators to market its new hyperactivity drug NRP104 - which was discovered by New River and licensed to Shire (SHPGY) $56.75 +14.87% Link in 2005.

Keene Little : 10/9/2006 2:10:54 PM

It's kind of a listless day and therefore hard to judge whether technical indicators mean much but watch the pullback in ES to see if it finds support at both its uptrend line and broken downtrend line at 1257.75. The indices just got a quick spike up so whatever is happening it seems designed simply to keep the bears away. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 2:09:18 PM

Investment Tech Group (ITG) $49.96 +3.39% Link ... Said September trading volume increased to 3.4 billion shares from 2.4 billion in the year-ago period. Average daily volume rose to 171 million shares from 114 million.

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 2:07:08 PM

DJ- Metal and mining shares climb as oil prices rose and rumors of the merger of Russian Aluminum and Sual Group were confirmed.

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 2:04:25 PM

Chicago Merc (CME) $516.66 +5.06% Link ... Jumps to an all-time high after The Wall Street Journal reported that it and Germany's Deutsche Boerse AG have expressed interest in exploring a business combination, which would link the world's two largest financial exchange companies.

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 2:00:55 PM

Fed's Yellen: Current Fed Policy Should Lower Inflation

DJ- Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen said Monday that while she remains concerned about the current level of inflation, she believes the present stance of monetary policy appears well suited to brings those pressures back in line over time.

"I do want to see inflation move down, but I believe policy may now be well-positioned to foster exactly such an outcome while also giving due consideration to the risks to economic activity," Yellen said in comments prepared for delivery before the California Independent Bankers 16th Annual Convention in Laguna Beach, Calif.

She noted that "monetary policymakers again are doing a balancing act, seeking the best way to temper inflationary pressures while not exposing the business cycle expansion to undue risk." And against those risks, "holding the stance of policy steady for a time makes sense to me," especially since "we appear to be within range of the moderately restrictive policy," she said.

Yellen is currently a voting member of the interest rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee. Economists and financial markets widely expect the Fed to hold what is currently a 5.25% overnight target rate steady through the remainder of the year, although markets generally believe the economy is poised to weaken enough for the Fed to start easing rates next year.

Yellen, who has been a frequent speaker on the economic outlook over recent weeks, offered views in her speech that were consistent with her past statements. Yellen's address Monday wasn't open to the press.

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 1:57:01 PM

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) $23.89 -0.49% Link ... UBS upgraded the stock to "neutral" from "reduce" today, citing valuation given the recent pullback in share price.

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 1:47:30 PM

Speaking of ERP ... SAP Ag (SAP) $51.12 +0.45% Link ... creeps above last week's $51.00 resistance.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 1:45:06 PM

QQQQ at a paltry 30% of normal volume.

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 1:43:14 PM


Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 1:42:55 PM

No fear ahead of Alcoa tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 1:34:14 PM

Powerwave Tech (PWAV) $6.61 -15.25% Link ... Lowered its Q3 revenue guidance to a range of $155-$160 million from its prior forecast of $200-$210 million. The company cited difficulties in implementing a new enterprise resource planning, or ERP, system in Europe.

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 1:30:33 PM

VIX is confirming ES's new daily highs. All is well in bull country. Link

Keene Little : 10/9/2006 1:29:30 PM

The market's inability to sell off should convince more bears to give up shorting this market. The more people give up the short side the more vulnerable it becomes but that day of recognition is an unknown. We're propped on fluff so it just means you need to be careful about the long side. Surprises from here will probably be of the nasty variety.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 1:24:28 PM

If QM holds 60.90, next stop is 61.95.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 1:23:15 PM

I wonder how much Asian money came to the US stock market as a refuge. They would have bought bonds, but that market is closed. That would explain all this.

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 1:22:20 PM

Amgen (AMGN) $73.61 -0.54% ...

Cephalon (CEPH) $67.27 +1.92%

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 1:20:59 PM

Biotech HOLDRs (BBH) 189.42 +1.50% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 1:15:23 PM

There it was, the higher high with a bearish divergence. But does anyone care?

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 1:14:44 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 1:11:10 PM

In other words, less and less stocks are participating in the fiesta, so if long, be a little careful. I still think we head higher, but not before a little scare.

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 1:10:48 PM

Brazil Stocks Turn Higher On Commodities, Election

DJ- Brazilian shares wiped out early losses Monday to show strong gains on rising commodities prices and the strong performance of the market-friendly opposition candidate in the presidential election run-off.

At 1643 GMT, the benchmark Ibovespa index was 1.7% higher at 37,940 points after opening 0.4% lower.

Trading volume was light due to the Columbus Day holiday in the U.S. and the prospect of a local holiday here on Thursday.

Shares in state oil company Petrobras (PBR) were 2.7% higher at 41.30 Brazilian reals ($19.12), leading gains on the local market. The shares was boosted by rising oil prices, which topped $60 a barrel Monday amid growing expectations that OPEC is plotting its first output cut in nearly two years.

Meanwhile, mining giant Vale do Rio Doce (RIO) was 2.6% higher at BRL42.76 after a small rise in metals prices and a wave of bargain hunting following losses last week.

With no key data due to be released in the U.S. because of the holiday, Brazilian markets will focus on the repercussions of the first debate in the second round of Brazil's presidential election on Sunday evening. The top two candidates, incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Social Democratic challenger Geraldo Alckmin, traded barbs with Alckmin sharply critical of corruption during Lula's last term and the president harsh on Alckmin's law and order record as governor of Sao Paulo state.

Market-friendly Alckmin came off better in the debate, traders said.

Alckmin is seen as more commited to cutting public spending and passing key reforms than Lula.

His aggressive performance Sunday may mean he has cut into Lula's lead in the polls, said Flavio Serrano, economist at the local Lopez Leon brokerage firm.

A poll released Friday by Datafolha, an independent polling group, showed Lula leading Alckmin, 54%-46%.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 1:10:05 PM

NQ made a higher high with a lower high on NASDAQ ADVDEC.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 1:08:18 PM

Oil has probably found a floor at 60 for some time to come. As a note, when we hit 57.75 on light sweet crude, it corresponded to 55 aggregate all oil vehicles and OPEC was clear that was the bottom line.

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 1:02:58 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 10/9/2006 12:53:14 PM

Crude Oil weekly chart Link

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 12:51:42 PM

If you are long Natural Gas I think this is a very good spot in which to book your profits. This market trades technically and should find resistance here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 12:49:52 PM

After reading S&P Credit Watch Negative on RIO (see 12:26:69 post), I'm left to wonder if the company is going to eventually come with a secondary stock offering, or a convertible of some type. That seems to be what S&P is waiting for too.

Current price action may have potential underwriters of a secondary offering moving the stock "higher."

Tough to say and I would tend to avoid any new bullish, or bearish positions at this time.

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 12:48:47 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Research and engineering company SAIC Inc. leads the market for initial public offerings as the week's richest deal, but tech firms Acme Packet and eHealth could draw bigger stock market performances based on pre-market buzz.

IPO commentator John Fitzgibbon said Acme Packet and eHealth "are on the most wanted list" this week because "they both have exploding revenue and are have turned the corner on profitability."

Acme Packet and eHealth mark the two latest potential darlings in the IPO market, which has quickly warmed up to tech-oriented deals this fall as evidenced by IPOs from Riverbed Technology (RVBD) , DivX (DIVX) and CommVault Systems (CVLT)

An online insurance broker, eHealth will come to market after WebMD (WBMD) rallied 43% in its IPO in September of last year. Debuting at $17.50, WebMD's shares now trade at just below the $40 mark.

The market remains selective, however. Shares of Shutterfly (SFLY) kicked off Sept. 29 at $15, only to trade below $13 now.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 12:48:37 PM

QQQQ at only 30% normal volume. Oil is at 61. We are all but pawns...

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 12:32:44 PM

Pharmacy Benefit Management shares fall after UBS cut ratings on ESRX $69.44 -6.07%, CMX $51.25 and MHS $55.12 -3.48% to "neutral" from "buy," citing the effects of a potential change in drug pricing.

Keene Little : 10/9/2006 12:31:02 PM

Price action seems slow today. The little sideways consolidation looks like it should be followed by another pop hihger. That would then give us a small 5-wave move off this morning's low and should then be followed by a deeper pullback after lunch. In other words I wouldn't chase a move higher from here and it could set up a scalp short.

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 12:26:59 PM

S&P Keeps Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce Ratings on Watch Negative

DJ- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today its 'BBB+' corporate credit ratings on Brazil-based mining company Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (CVRD) remain on CreditWatch negative, where they were placed on Aug. 11, 2006.

The CreditWatch update follows our revision of the potential strategies that CVRD may undertake to finance the possible acquisition of Canada-based nickel producer Inco Ltd. (BBB-/CreditWatch positive/--) and the impact of to CVRD's financial policies and profile. Based on the analysis of the alternatives to CVRD's taking out a bridge loan that will be used to initially fund the acquisition if the bid is successful on the currently proposed terms, we expect the ratings on CVRD to be lowered by a maximum of two notches.

"Should the bid be successful, we will likely lower all ratings on CVRD by one notch to 'BBB', reflecting increased financial leverage, and maintain them on CreditWatch negative until there is a clear definition on the company's resulting capital structure," explained Standard & Poor's credit analyst Reginaldo Takara. "Depending on how the new capital structure is arranged, the ratings could be lowered by another notch to 'BBB-' or affirmed at 'BBB' if the bridge loan is partly refinanced with instruments with equity-like characteristics. We believe CVRD benefits from significant flexibility to reduce debt at a strong pace in 2007 and 2008, restoring credit measures to adequate levels even under conservative cash generation assumptions."

RIO $23.11 +4.05% Link

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 12:23:34 PM

NQ battle ground is 1706.25, ex high.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 12:22:28 PM

YG back above the gap close and 576 held up. There is that big gap above at 590 which it should head for if oil bids up to 61 again.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 11:56:25 AM

SPX 1350 still has solid call resistance.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 11:53:04 AM

They are raising the prices on those calls. I don't blame them.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 11:52:32 AM

VNX and QQV are green. This looks pretty darn weird.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 11:51:03 AM

QM should pick up some buyers soon and do he closing run.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 11:49:24 AM

NQ monthly R1 is 1710. We are also right at that projection I mentioned and on thin ice above that trendline.

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 11:45:36 AM

I truly hope that the US does not think it needs to take on the role of the UN again and "put the world right." Hopefully we have learned a lesson in Iraq. Sorry if I am getting political.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 11:45:11 AM

The UN just needs to grow up and not have only 5 nations running it.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 11:43:58 AM

That projection at 1709.50 was in play.

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 11:43:26 AM

DJ- E-cbot Wheat Trade Halted Due To Limit Up Move; Pit Open

Keene Little : 10/9/2006 11:43:22 AM

Jane, I agree with your assessment (11:40 comment). Another League of Nations.

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 11:42:21 AM

QQQQ $41.63 +0.53% ... gets the trade at MONTHLY R1.

Keene Little : 10/9/2006 11:42:11 AM

In addition to the downtrend line at 1359, two equal legs up in the bounce off this morning's low is at 1358.75. If this is just a corrective bounce that will lead to another move lower, this is the place to try a short play.

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 11:41:16 AM

North Korea's testing of a Nuclear device is going to show the world if the UN as any strength left as peace keeping/regulatory body. I'm afraid we will all see that it does not.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 11:38:02 AM

NQ 1709.50 is 23.6% projection September.

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 11:38:02 AM

US's Bolton: Security Council Unanimously Condemns N. Korea

DJ- Members of the U.N. Security Council unanimously condemned North Korea's claim of a nuclear test during an emergency meeting Monday, U.S. Ambassador John Bolton said.

"I didn't see any protectors of North Korea in that room this morning," Bolton said.

Bolton, in televised remarks made immediately after the meeting, said he laid out a number of elements for council members to consider in a sanctions resolution against North Korea.

Japan's ambassador, meanwhile, said the members demanded that North Korea return to six-party talks on its weapons program.

The Security Council will now discuss "appropriate measures" to respond to the test, which was a threat to international peace and security, Ambassador Kenzo Oshima said.

Bolton said the entire discussion took just 30 minutes, "and that's remarkable in the Security Council."

Bolton said most of the members agreed to work on the elements of a draft resolution that he proposed, and there will be an experts' meeting at 3 p.m. EDT to consider those elements.

"I was very impressed by the unanimity of the council...on the need for a strong and swift answer to what everyone agreed amounted to a threat to international peace and security," Bolton said.

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 11:37:41 AM

... and YM's 3 min CCI is above +200

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 11:37:20 AM

If long now you have to make a decision to stay in or get out. TICK +1000!

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 11:36:45 AM

AD line finally slips above 0 +67.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 11:36:12 AM

NQ daily with trendline: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 11:35:26 AM

But NQ at R1. Let's see if they can hold this for long. QM kicked off at support and looks headed back up.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 11:34:23 AM

Nice patriotic rally.

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 11:33:29 AM

The TRIN was warning us of this bullishness.

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 11:32:51 AM

VIX is making new daily lows telling me ES will make new daily highs. The bulls have the ball now.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 11:30:27 AM

YG (gold) gap is pretty much closed. QM is at support.

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 11:28:57 AM

11:11 AM Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 10/9/2006 11:27:59 AM

It looks like ES could test its resistance sooner rather than later.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 11:26:56 AM

This level should hold back NQ. Right at trendline resistance.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 11:19:09 AM

Nvidia cut to neutral at Pacific Growth - MarketWatch

Keene Little : 10/9/2006 11:18:09 AM

While it's hard to say what might happen in this market lately, it looks like we're ready for a pullback. Even the daily chart looks like it could be topping soon, if not already. Looking at the downtrend line for ES from Thursday's high through Friday afternoon's high, we've got resistance at 1359 (and dropping). If we get a pullback that sticks inside a parallel down-channel then support by the bottom of that channel is not until below 1350. Disregarding any games that might be played today I would look for resistance to hold and the lower number to be next.

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 11:13:42 AM

11:11 AM Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 11:08:16 AM

December Copper (hg06z) $3.44 +4.24% Link ... Sure looked as if it was ready to break down on October 4, but has rebounded, as has RIO.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 10:59:21 AM

QM drops at resistance and equities get a lift. Pre-lunch jam coming in 15 mns.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 10:58:13 AM

And they could be right.

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 10:58:05 AM

AD volume is now above 0 and the AD line as "improved" to -359

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 10:57:49 AM

I seriously doubt that mom and pop are buying any stocks today. So that leaves the boyz and some die hard momentum traders.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 10:55:32 AM

Semis are definitely holding this up. Traders are looking at tomorrow, when oil "could" drop, the bond market rallies and equities get a lift. That is the thinking here.

Keene Little : 10/9/2006 10:55:18 AM

This kind of low volume day is the kind of day where it would be easy to jam the shorts to the upside.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 10:54:28 AM

NQ back above pivot.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 10:54:16 AM

If we weren't bogged down somewhere else, we would be taking decisive action, not waiting for the UN. Now that would be supportive of the markets because it would set up resolution. Nuclear weapons that exist are far more dangerous than nuclear wepaons that don't.

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 10:54:15 AM

TICKS +800

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 10:52:29 AM

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush condemned North Korea today for its "provocative" announcement that it tested a nuclear bomb and urged the United Nations to take quick, decisive action.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 10:49:53 AM

I just think we need to do one quick retest of 1684 before moving higher. Another trap pullback that bears latch on to. Then we shoot up to NDX 1744. Very possible.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 10:47:47 AM

Bears keep shorting this thing and I doubt we will fall apart before October 20th. But November could suprise everyone, just like the calendar has surprised everyone this year every single month. In other words, get out before November if you are long, but you are probably safe for another week or two.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 10:46:23 AM

Just when October ends and everyone thinks it will be safe, this market will swoon big time. The bears are fueling this one, no doubt. But remember that last year we had mucho QQQQ puts above us for November. Just the reverse this year.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 10:43:55 AM

NVDA all time high 36.33.

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 10:43:27 AM

"Copper" stocks PD $87.15 +3.08% Link , FCX $54.66 +3.54% Link and RIO $23.03 +3.69% Link all strong today.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 10:42:06 AM

As usual, the masses never buy stocks when they are on sale, so we will have to wait for the late-comer buyers of NVDA to be done with it for some weakness to hold. The time to buy NVDA was at 17, when the masses were shorting it.

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 10:40:39 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 10:40:02 AM

THE VIX is hugging its daily highs which is bearish and confirm Marc's comment at 10:34. But the TRIN is a concern. As you can see the AD line and volume are not as bearish as Friday. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 10:38:29 AM

Another rally without small caps.

Keene Little : 10/9/2006 10:38:28 AM

They're trying hard to hold this up but on the 5-min chart it's starting to get that "waterfall" look. That typically results in a flush to the downside but it's hard to say whether that's an accurate picture this morning. Don't fight the Fed comes to mind at times like these.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 10:38:09 AM

The best shorting would be ER, then YM. NQ is a tough dog and ES has energy helping out.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 10:37:04 AM

For YM that would be 11860/65.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 10:36:29 AM

DOW critical support is 11805.

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 10:34:48 AM

ES's new daily low was not confirmed by the VIX and the TRIN remains downright bullish.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 10:34:46 AM

ADVDEC lines are getting nasty. This is not a day to think long.

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 10:33:23 AM

Dateline WSJ - YouTube Inc. and Google Inc. reached a series of partnerships with media and entertainment companies that will allow the Internet companies to carry more copyrighted videos on their sites.

The pacts are the latest moves by closely held YouTube, which is in discussions to be acquired by Google, to address concerns about the unauthorized use of copyright material on its popular video-sharing site. Removing these potential legal issues smooths the way for a purchase by Google.

YouTube announced distribution deals with Vivendi SA's Universal Music and Sony BMG Music Entertainment as well as CBS Corp. Financial terms weren't disclosed, but YouYube agreed to compensate the music companies for the use of their content and will share ad revenue with CBS.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 10:33:13 AM

I can tell you that many traders play holiday up before and up after, but I think even they know they are pushing their luck.

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 10:32:40 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures rose early Monday as news that North Korea has conducted an underground nuclear weapons test revived the precious metal's safe-haven attraction.

Gold for December delivery was last trading up $4.70 at $581.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract closed higher last Friday but lost fully $27 an ounce on the week, pressured by weak oil prices and a firmer U.S. dollar.

"Signs of price protection by the oil cartel OPEC and a jump in geo-political tensions have triggered a rally...following the first tests of nuclear weapons by North Korea," said James Moore, analyst at TheBullionDesk.com.

Crude futures rose 74 cents to $60.50 a barrel, after OPEC officials said there is now agreement that cartel members should reduce production by 1 million barrels a day, with North Korea's test adding further support.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 10:32:00 AM

Reason slowly makes its way into the thick skull of the perma bulls.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 10:31:30 AM

Mm, should have picked up gold on that last dip.

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 10:29:58 AM


DJ- Johnson & Johnson's Risperdal receives expanded federal approval to treat aggression in autistic children and adolescents. Drug used since 1993 to treat adult schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. Meanwhile, CFO Robert Darretta to retire at end of the year.

JNJ $64.90 -0.26% Link

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 10:29:21 AM

Vat a joke.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 10:29:11 AM

QM 61.

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 10:29:09 AM

I am long Natural Gas so I hope it follows.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 10:28:54 AM

NQ pivot.

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 10:28:54 AM

Oil to new daily highs.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 10:28:09 AM

It is the luck of the bulls that this is happening on a low volume day with lots of money to protect until tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 10:27:55 AM


DJ- Operator of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline is investigating vibrations on the line, a problem it says was caused by too little oil flowing through after BP closed much of the giant Prudhoe Bay field in early August.

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 10:27:12 AM

The only internal that is clear is the TRIN. It is below its PDR and sitting at 0.71. This should keep you away from the short side.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 10:27:11 AM

QM reaches my upside target at 60.80.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 10:26:19 AM

Strong volume in a few select stocks is holding us up. Shove money into some safe big caps only in order to prop it up. NASDAQ ADVDEC line is -534, but TRINNQ is .44. ER is down .33% as no one is interested in risking their money in small caps today.

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 10:25:31 AM

VIX is unclear as well. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 10:25:30 AM


DJ- Johnson Controls expects fiscal 2007 earnings to rise 14% from 2006, helped by 'substantial growth' in its building efficiency business, market share gains in its power solutions and diversification in its interior experience business.

JCI $76.85 +1.99% Link

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 10:24:43 AM

Although these are bearish they are not a very clear bearish. Link

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 10:23:13 AM

YG (Gold's emini) tags its overnight lows and bounces.

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 10:19:17 AM


DJ- Andrew McKelvey resigns as chairman and chief executive officer, but is named chairman emeritus and will remain with the online employment company's board. William Pastore is named new CEO.

MNST $39.80 -0.45% Link

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 10:18:58 AM

They are determined to hold COMP 2300.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 10:17:18 AM

By the way, SMH is in the AMEX, which is why I also put up that ADVDEC line which is now +6. That is is upporting techs here.

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 10:17:13 AM


DJ- Google is in talks to acquire the poster child in online video boom for $1.6 billion, The Wall Street Journal reports. The discussions are still at a sensitive stage and could well break off, a person familiar with the matter says.

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 10:16:47 AM

DAteline WSJ - Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's meetings yesterday with Chinese leaders marked the end to a long standoff between Asia's two biggest powers, a rapprochement that might boost the effort to dissuade North Korea from its nuclear ambitions.

The meetings were the countries' first summit in five years and could lessen the chances of a flare-up in the region. Japan and China still dispute territory, such as a small group of islands near some gas fields in the East China Sea. These have been the subject of recent spats over drilling rights; yesterday, the countries agreed to seek a deal to jointly develop the area.

More immediately, just days after North Korea threatened to carry out a nuclear test, Mr. Abe and Chinese President Hu Jintao agreed they were both "deeply concerned" by this development. They said they will work to stop North Korea from developing nuclear weapons, something that would have the potential to trigger an arms race in the region.

"We agreed that [a North Korean nuclear test] would be a great threat and would be unacceptable," Mr. Abe told reporters after the meetings. "We will strengthen cooperation to get North Korea to answer to the demands of international society."

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 10:15:49 AM


DJ- Google says its Google Video Web site will later this month provide free, ad-supported music from the catalogs of Warner Music Group and Sony BMG Music.

GOOG $430.70 +2.42% Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 10:14:35 AM


DJ- CBS and YouTube ink deal to show CBS content on YouTube. Sony BMG Music Entertainment also signs a content licensing agreement with YouTube, making video content from its library available on YouTube's Web site.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 10:13:37 AM

Which is also the position of Russell. These guys were trading as far back as the 60's. I would not be too flippant about their advice. Russell says to buy every gold dip going into next year.

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 10:13:27 AM

NVIDIA (NVDA) $32.27 +4.33% Link ... new 52-weeker at the NASDAQ.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 10:12:31 AM

Gold is finicky as usual, but read this one from Harry Shultz, one of top performing newsletters. He's at 1000 in 18 months: Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 10:12:18 AM


DJ- OPEC members have still not fully agreed on the size of an output cut to prop up falling oil prices and the timing of an emergency meeting, a senior OPEC delegate says. The weekend of Oct 18-19 is mooted as a possible date.

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 10:10:50 AM


DJ- PNC Financial agrees to purchase Mid-Atlantic banking stalwart for $47.24 a share in deal designed to extend PNC's reach across the Eastern seaboard. PNC's offer represents a 28% premium to Mercantile's Friday close.

PNC $69.21 -5.96% Link

MRBK $44.37 +20.63 Link

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 10:10:33 AM

YG gap close is 577.40.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 10:09:47 AM

QM drops.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 10:09:36 AM

VZ downgrade. YM short would have been better now that the SOX is up.

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 10:09:08 AM

Here is how the markets are trading in relation to their Overnight ranges. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 10:08:40 AM

The dollar is rising, so gold is stalling, but it is nevertheless still up. The relationship is 50% energy (inflation) and 50% currency (refuge).

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 10:06:36 AM

Back. Oil at 60.65, risk there to 60.80. Again, the pits having a field day with the low volume.

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 10:06:28 AM

Oil is now breaking its overnight highs and Gold looks to be testing its overnight low. Looks like to romance between these two is all but over.

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 10:03:33 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 9:52:41 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- China is outshining the U.S. market for initial public offerings in a big way with plans to raise $22 billion in what would be the richest global deal of all time and nine times the size of the richest American IPO in the past two years.

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China is set to take the crown from the $18.4 billion raised by NTT Mobile Communications Network in 1998 for the king of all IPOs, according to Dealogic. The bank is expected to debut its IPO on Oct. 27, after setting an estimated price range of HK$2.56 to HK$3.07 a share, according to press reports.

The IPO will debut on both the Hong Kong and Shanghai stock exchanges, with no immediate listing in the U.S.

Keene Little : 10/9/2006 9:50:54 AM

Those trying to hold this market up are probably thinking that if they can keep spiking it up they'll keep most of the bears away and prevent them from shorting the market. It could work. But so far, looking at the ES chart I posted earlier (12:24 AM), with ES struggling near the top of its wedge and with the 30 and 60-min oscillators getting ready to roll back over I'd say this looks more bearish than bullish at the moment. It's just hard to tell what kind of buying spikes, as we're getting, will continue.

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 9:44:03 AM

VIX opens mid range to its PDR but the TRIN below. A trader should not get too bearish with the TRIN below its PDR and at 0.71.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 9:43:42 AM

Correct that to 1685, although my guess is we hit weekly R1 at 1656, which is also lower trendline suport. I am almost inclined to wait for that. In any case, trade it. I have to step away.

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 9:41:50 AM

AD line is a bearish -662 and AD volume is below 0 and falling.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 9:41:20 AM

My stop is at 1707.50 and my sell to close at 1686. That is how much room you have to give these bozos.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 9:39:21 AM

It just makes you want to only trade commodities. That move was pure manipulation. I am going to focus 75% of my trading on oil and gold and away from equities. What a joke.

Keene Little : 10/9/2006 9:36:31 AM

Those simultaneous buying spikes across the different indices leave little doubt in my mind that we've got Fed money continuing to pour into our markets through the mega-banks' trading teams. It may not hold this up for long but it does make intraday trading more difficult right now. In fact that last spike a couple of minutes ago is already getting sold into.

Jeff Bailey : 10/9/2006 9:36:09 AM

Weekly/Monthly Index Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 9:26:54 AM

Just got an email from Linda and she says "Last night, CNBC Europe was saying that Australia had confirmed seismic activity that indicated that the test had occurred."

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 9:26:36 AM

NQ would have risk to 1704, trendline resistance. Ultimately, it's getting ready for a trip to 1684.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 9:25:36 AM

It's pretty obvious PPT at work. NO bonds to worry about, many traders not even here, so it's easy to drive it into a few shorts and make a mini-bump.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 9:23:34 AM

With oil back at 60.50, earnings on tap, 2 1/2 month rally, there is no reason for anyone to want to buy stocks today, so it's just another scam day for Wall street if they hold it up.

Keene Little : 10/9/2006 9:21:12 AM

It looks like they're trying hard to work the futures back up to Friday's close. The little buying spurts now tell me there could be continued manipulation or Fed money coming into the market. I'd be careful either way at the open.

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 9:20:40 AM

ER is the most bearish of all four equity markets. Notice how it has not even come close to testing its May highs whereas ES and YM have both broken those highs. Also notice MACD and RSI are much more bearish than even NQ. With that said there is still a lot of support under this market and I wouldn't be betting a lot of money on the short side here either. Link

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 9:15:30 AM

This chart is more bearish than ES and YM because the higher highs price is making is not confirmed by the MACD and RSI. In any case NQ has some very nice support under and I would not be betting a lot of money on the short side. Link

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 9:06:27 AM

For months now anything you say about ES you could say about YM. These two have traded joined at the hip. Link

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 9:03:18 AM

I keep trying to find something that will tell me we are heading down but I just can't find it. The bear wedge I see forming could be a hint but the last bear wedge I found broke out to the upside also the MACD is not confirming it. Of course the political situation could change (North Korea) and that would paint a different picture altogether. Link

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 8:58:54 AM

The commodities I follow, Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Gold, were all bullish overnight. I say bullish because they all did a sideways dance at their PDHs. Notice as well that the MACD was falling as price was moving sideways, another bullish sign.

The bond market is closed for Columbus day today. Link

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 8:46:03 AM

There was no strong reaction to the North Korea news and the equity markets didn't even break their PDLs. This could be due to the fact that. North Korea's nuclear tests are still unconfirmed. The threat of another confrontation would have caused the markets to react must stronger than this. Link

Jane Fox : 10/9/2006 8:38:43 AM

Here is the WSJ article about North Korea. - North Korea said it successfully tested a nuclear device Monday. If the claim proves accurate, it could raise the pressure to find a diplomatic and political solution to the country's nuclear ambitions.

In a statement issued by the country's state-run news agency, North Korea said there was no radioactive leakage from the test, indicating it occurred underground. There were no immediate details about where the test occurred.

"At this point we are not confirming a nuclear test," White House spokesman Tony Snow said. "A North Korean nuclear test would constitute a provocative act in defiance of the will of the international community and of our call to refrain from actions that would aggravate tensions in Northeast Asia," he added.

"We expect the U.N. Security Council to take immediate actions to respond to this unprovoked act," Mr. Snow said. "The United States is closely monitoring the situation and reaffirms its commitment to protect and defend our allies in the region."

Another U.S. official said North Korea's action "fundamentally transforms the geopolitical landscape of Northeast Asia and will have ripple effects throughout the region and the globe."

"It basically sticks a nail in the coffin of the NPT," the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, the main international agreement that has prevented the spread of atomic weapons.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/9/2006 7:11:18 AM

Somewhat subdued dollar rise. NQ/ES/YM come off lows. Let's see if they put the PPT to work, once again.

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