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Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 11:47:33 PM

How Hot Fund Money Boosted Gasoline Price Link

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 10:53:12 PM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 10/11/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Marc Eckelberry : 10/11/2006 9:23:15 PM

I will be away tomorrow as well, my schedule is getting a little hectic.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/11/2006 9:22:36 PM

Keene, I posted this chart of ZB weekly a few weeks ago. Check it out and look at the action since last year at 200 weekly ema. I guess everyone now knows were to put stops if short: Link

Tab Gilles : 10/11/2006 9:20:03 PM

Open Positions & Stock Watch Added Peabody Energy (BTU) to Stock watch list. Mentioned it today @ 12:21PM post. Link Link

$NDX/$NAA daily Link

$NAHGH/$NALOW 10-ema weekly Link

$NDX50 & $NDXA200 daily Link Link

Profund UltraOTC (UOPIX) Link

Profund Ultra Small Cap (UAPIX) Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 6:40:50 PM

Out of Office on Friday ... I will be shutting down Thursday evening and hopefully back up and running Monday morning as I move to new location on Friday and I am assuming that Comcast will have house/office ported with broadband by Monday's opening bell.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 6:40:45 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Today's trade action in Ameritrade (AMTD) $16.82 -11.93% is VERY NEGATIVE looking in my opinion (BIG volume). Will be looking for any type of bounce back near $18.00-$18.50 as exit point.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 5:52:00 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 5:49:56 PM

Tab, 7 months of experience would have been just enough to make him over-confident. It's like new motorcyclists--they're most dangerous within the 6-12 period after getting their license. If he was doing stunts over NYC that was a big no-no anyway (can't do over congested populated areas). I doubt he was shot down. I think it probably happened by his own hand and losing control of the airplane (probably got himself disoriented). What a tragedy for his family.

Tab Gilles : 10/11/2006 5:35:21 PM

Keene, could very well be, he just got his pilots license 7 months ago. Question is what was he doing in restricted air space? Also..could his plane have been shot down if suspected of being a terrorist by gov't agents?

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 5:25:42 PM

The brokers look ready for another leg down after today's spike down and then sideways consolidation for the rest of the day. After another move lower, with a Fib projection to just below 226, it should get a bigger bounce. But if it does drop to a new low it will create a 5-wave impulsive move down and indicate a trend change to the downside. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 5:23:01 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 5:12:43 PM

I hope he wasn't doing stunts to impress friends and family (who then watched him crash and burn, literally). It wouldn't be the first time it's happened to a pilot. Usually low flight-time pilots who haven't gained enough experience to realize foolish stunts kill. I'm not sure what happened here but if this is the case, how sad.

Tab Gilles : 10/11/2006 5:07:18 PM

NY Yankee pitcher Cory Lidle was on plane that hit building this afternoon. Link

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 4:54:35 PM

We have an interesting development in bonds that could be telling us something about the near future (if it plays out like I think it will). The 30-year yield has bounced up to a confluence of daily moving averages, especially the 50 and 200 which are currently touching. If the 50 continues down through the 200, and forces yields back down, that would be bearish yields (bullish bonds). But what if we're seeing an inverse H&S in the making? Link

Notice the downtrend line from January 2000 just above the current level which will also be resistance. The bounce in yields has nearly reversed the decline from mid-September and that makes me think we could have something more bullish developing here. So if we get just a pullback that forms the right shoulder of an inverted H&S pattern then we could see a quick move higher after breaking resistance at the current level.

In order for yields to rally as I've shown it would say the bond market starts to recognize that their assumption the Fed is ready to lower rates soon has been the wrong assumption. An increase of rates after a pullback would likely wake up the stock market and get it to pay attention to some economic fundamentals, namely that things are not as good as presently assumed.

This is something I'll be watching closely since I'm making the assumption, as per the depiction on the chart, that yields will be heading higher. Now I need to test that assumption along the way here.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 4:06:06 PM

Bullish swing trade call option adjustment ... for the Overstock.com OSTK Oct. $20 Calls (QKD-JD).

Cancel all prior orders with you broker

and replace with this

Place an order to sell long the two (2) OSTK Oct. $20 Calls (QKD-JD) for $1.60.

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 4:05:32 PM

We have a megaphone pattern at the highs for the COMP and this is normally a bearish reversal pattern. We could easily see another push up to today's high as part of this pattern (or higher if the megaphone will expand a little further). I've also drawn in a potential diamond-top formation which is pure speculation at this point but would be a fitting top here. This is a distribution pattern. Link

Tab Gilles : 10/11/2006 3:43:36 PM

FYI...Listening to news an eyewitness in NYC claimed to having seen a small plane doing aerobatic moves in area of crash minutes earlier...however didn't actually see plane hit building.

Tab Gilles : 10/11/2006 3:41:02 PM

Material Select Sector (XLB)32.07 -0.32 (-0.99%) Phelps Dodge (PD) is one of the major stock in the ETF, along with one of the stocks I track Air Products (APD). Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 3:37:21 PM

CNN ... U.S. Officials: Fighters Scrambled Only As Precaution ...

U.S. Officials Believe NYC Air Crash An Accident.

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 3:35:17 PM

This looks like it's setting up for a run higher into the close. Another flat finish could be in the making.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 3:33:12 PM

Overstock.com (OSTK) alert $19.04 +2.25% ...

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 3:26:20 PM

Tomorrow's economic reports include

8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims. For Sept 30. Previous: -17K.
8:30a.m. Aug Trade Deficit. Previous: $68.04B.

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 3:18:00 PM

Dateline WSJ - NEW YORK -- A small aircraft crashed into a high-rise on the Upper East Side, raining down debris on Manhattan and unleashing what witnesses reported was a gigantic fireball, police said. There was no immediate word on any deaths or injuries.

Initial reports were conflicting on whether the aircraft was a small plane or a helicopter.

Flames could be seen shooting from windows on two upper floors of The Belaire, a 50-story tower at 524 E. 72nd St., close to the East River and York Avenue. New York City Fire Department spokeswoman Emily Rahimi said the aircraft had struck the 20th floor.

The building was built in 1986 and located near Sotheby's Auction House. It has 183 apartments, many of which have sold in the past for more than $1 million.

Witnesses said the crash caused a loud noise, and burning and falling debris was seen. A column of gray smoke rose over the city, and raging flames could be seen in four windows on two upper floors.

"There's huge pieces of debris falling," said one witness who refused to give her full name. "There's so much falling now, I've got to get away."

There wasn't any indication that terrorism was involved.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 3:17:49 PM

Oooooeeee! SPY $134.98 -0.21% ... 21.2 million shares since 02:30 PM EDT.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 3:15:01 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 3:04:42 PM

The cash index, SPX, did not break last Friday's low. So this still qualifies as just a pullback within the sideways consolidation that could lead to the next rally.

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 3:04:17 PM

DAteline WSJ - Television shows live images of Manhattan apartment building on fire after witnesses report crash of small plane or helicopter

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 3:02:41 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 2:55:48 PM

SMALL PLANE CRASHES INTO BUILDING IN NYC: REPORTS

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 2:55:27 PM

Next level of support is the uptrend line from Sept 11th at 1347.25. Each of the progressively steeper uptrend lines (identifying the move up as going parabolic) is getting broken. Ah, but I see the Boyz have decided that's enough and hit it with a big buy program across the board.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 2:55:22 PM

Buy Program Premium SPY $134.75 -0.37% ... after spike lower to WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 2:54:43 PM

Air Crash On Upper East Side of New York Near 51st St and York Ave

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 2:53:33 PM

Uh oh, Friday's low just broke.

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 2:53:11 PM

Who let the dogs out!!!

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 2:51:38 PM

If ES proceeds a little lower then the next level of support would be its uptrend line from Sept 25th which coincides with the 30-min 130-pma at 1352.75, which is only a tick above the important low on Friday at 1352.50.

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 2:51:33 PM

TICKS -800

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 2:38:05 PM

Support by an internal Fib projection for this leg down (if it's to lead to the resumption of the rally) is at ES 1354.75. This is also where the 30-min 100-pma is located so watch for support to hold, or not.

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 2:37:26 PM

ES tags its daily lows but I see the VIX is not testing its daily highs so it may hold although with this fast moving market I'm not sure the VIX is totally reliable.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 2:35:05 PM

Another "implosion" for oil today.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 2:34:01 PM

FCX $54.41 (unch)

RIO $23.25 +0.21% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 2:32:39 PM

I seem to be getting some inflection point entries in copper stocks.

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 2:29:38 PM

Bears beware here--the last leg down within a sideways consolidation is often a spike down that is news related. It would be wave-e on the chart I posted earlier (1:03). It could be setting us up here for the rally to a new high. I know, it doesn't make sense but that's the pattern.

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 2:20:57 PM

The rats are abandoning ship over at the USS Smallcap though. The RUT's taking a big hit.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 2:20:24 PM

Russell 2000 (RUT.X) 739.95 -0.79% ... back at its 61.8% retracement (740.15).

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 2:18:41 PM

The smart market, the bonds, has dropped hard on the FOMC minutes and is not recovering. This tells us the propping up of the stock market is all false buying. When they're done propping up equities it could get quite painful in a hurry.

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 2:14:23 PM

Can there be any doubt at this point that Big Money is holding this market up? Sell offs will simply not be tolerated.

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 2:13:39 PM

If the Fed is worried about a spillover from a collapsing (my word) housing market, and an economic slowdown, that must mean they'll continue to hold interest rates steady and maybe even lower rates. Ignore that "economy slowing down" part and let's paaarty! Buy those stocks in the face of adversity I say. OK, they're starting to drag me off the stage and I think I'm heading for the funny farm.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 2:09:43 PM

Bullish swing trade call close out alert ... lets close out the SAP Ag SAP Nov. $47.50 Calls (SAP-KR) at the bid of $4.00. ($4.00 x $4.20)

SAP $50.75 +0.31% ... almost closed out the AMTD calls yesterday and didn't and now regret. Similar technicals with SAP "light volume" on recent move above its 200-day SMA for a November expiration.

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 2:06:08 PM

Here are some highlights

* FED STAFF SEES ONLY 'SMALL GAP' IN RESOURCE UTILIZATION
* FED STAFF CUTS ECONOMY'S GROWTH POTENTIAL FORECAST:MINUTES
* FOMC UNCERTAIN ABOUT EXTENT OF HOUSING WEAKNESS, SPILLOVER
* FOMC: CORE * INFLATION EXPECTED TO EBB GRADUALLY
* SEVERE SLOWDOWN 'COULD NOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT'
* FOMC SEPT. 20 MINUTES SHOW LENGTHY DISCUSSION ABOUT HOUSING
* FOMC SAW 'MODESTLY BETTER INFLATION OUTLOOK'
* FOMC: DECISION TO HOLD STEADY IN SEPT. WAS EASIER THAN AUG.

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 2:04:17 PM

Oh that's right the FED minutes were just realized.

Tab Gilles : 10/11/2006 2:03:20 PM

Fed Minutes Link

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 2:03:44 PM

WE are seeing a little selloff here so make sure you know where those PDLs are because they will be support. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 2:02:53 PM

BIIIIIG volume in December copper again today. Hasn't moved much, up $0.03 at $3.41.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 2:01:51 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPY $135.10

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 2:01:39 PM

I am going to take a QM long here with a stop at 57.45. I won't get married to this trade but testing yearly lows is just too tempting.

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 1:51:49 PM

QM now tags its previous yearly low at 57.750 and breaks thru.

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 1:49:44 PM

These are still not what you would call bullish but they are a lot more bullish than they were earlier. Link

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 1:35:13 PM

Here's how SPX's short term bullish pattern would look if the sideways consolidation over the past few days leads to another leg up. At this point the EW count is becoming very complex and my current count is my best guess--another leg up to complete a double zig-zag for the 5th wave (which must remain a corrective count inside a wedge like this). Fooling around with internal Fib projections off the wave count points to the 1275-1281 area as a potential high. It takes a break below 1344 to say something more bearish may have started. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 1:30:37 PM

Good gravy! ... Phelps Dodge (PD) $91.78 +4.55%

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 1:24:48 PM

Yesterday's action did have Dorsey/Wright's Non Ferrous METAls sector bullish % reversing back up to "bear correction" status at 44.83%. A reading of 46% is needed to achieve "bull confirmed" status.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 1:20:32 PM

Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce (RIO) $23.48 +1.20% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 1:19:50 PM

Bullish swing trade long alert ... for 1/2 position in shares of Freeport McMoran (FCX) $55.30 +1.56% here, stop $52.10, target $58.25.

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 1:17:39 PM

Same with the RUT: Link

But that under-throw in early October is typically followed by an over-throw so a little higher here would be expected.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 1:15:56 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 1:15:29 PM

This NDX 240-min chart shows price pressing, again, the top of its ascending wedge that's been in play since August. It's not a place I'd like to go long but obviously shorts are being squeezed out of this market, again. Link

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 1:05:55 PM

With that kind of projection for ES, DOW 12K is a given.

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 1:05:06 PM

Crudes yearly lows (using QM) was 57.75 made on Oct 4th. Today's lows so far have been 57.85. Macd is saying this double bottom will hold.

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 1:03:43 PM

In the ascending wedge that continues to chop higher and higher (and chop is the operative word, meaning it's an ending pattern), it would appear that the 5th wave has the potential to extend higher. An extended 5th wave is typical in a blow off move for a market and it certainly appears that's what's happening here. One look at the parabolic move in the DOW and SPX lately says it all.

The consolidation over the past few days, assuming we're not going to get a strong sell off following this bounce, is bullish for another leg up. Using trend lines and Fib projections off this consolidation (with the expectation that we need another pullback to set up the next leg higher), I get an initial upside target for ES near 1380 and then 1384. Something to think about if you're holding short positions. The next pullback would be a time to lighten up and even try the long side. Link

Last Friday's low at 1352.50 is still the number that has to be broken in order for the bears to lay claim to the ball.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 1:03:13 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 1:01:23 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Visa said Wednesday it is positioning itself for an initial public offering as the credit-card brand echoes the move taken earlier this year by rival MasterCard Inc.

Visa will merge its regional entities into Visa Inc. and emerge as a stock corporation. A majority of the stock will then be offered to the public. A search is underway for a new chief executive as well as independent board members, who would comprise the majority of the board.

"This is a pretty important day for Visa," William Campbell, chairman of Visa International, said in an interview with MarketWatch.

Visa said it expects the proposed restructuring will "best position the company to meet the evolving needs of its customers and will accelerate its growth" by improving efficiency and increasing its access to capital. An IPO would also give Visa a currency to make acquisitions and reward employees via stock options.

Although Campbell and Visa restructuring committee head Peter Hawkins said it is too early to discuss details of the IPO, they expect the transaction to take place in about 12 to 18 months.

Moody's analyst Curt Beaudouin said the IPO plan by Visa had been expected. "The company has been undergoing an internal review," he said. "It's not a big surprise."

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 12:59:30 PM

SPY $135.28 (unch) ... 60-minute interval chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement (same as SPX in Monday's wrap) at this Link

Tab Gilles : 10/11/2006 12:59:36 PM

Peabody Energy (BTU) Excerpt from thestreet.com...

Cramer said one way to play the improved market is to buy coal names such as Peabody (BTU) and Arch Coal (ACI)Coal remains undervalued relative to oil and natural gas -- "way too cheap," Cramer said -- and now managers at these companies must be worried that huge energy players like Exxon Mobil (XOM) and BP (BP) will come along and snap them up. Link

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 12:47:45 PM

Obviously a head fake break as the indices push to new highs. It continues to be a market that is propped up. How long this will continue is an unknown.

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 12:21:24 PM

ES is now threatening to break below today's uptrend line at 1359.25.

Tab Gilles : 10/11/2006 12:21:10 PM

Peabody Energy (BTU) & $DJUSEN Fibonacci Retracements. Link Link Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 12:04:47 PM

Legg Mason (LM) $86.80 -17.57% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 11:59:16 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

The bullish California Pizza Kitchen (CPKI) position has been closed out at $31.38.

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 11:54:37 AM

NASDAQ MOST ACTIVE STOCKS: QQQQ INTC SIRI AMTD YHOO

NYSE MOST ACTIVE STOCKS: AA NT Q ET F

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 11:53:11 AM

This rally today sure looks a lot like the late day rally yesterday. Link

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 11:44:12 AM

Yesterday's bounce for ES was just over the 78.6% retracement of the decline. If we see the same thing today then that would take ES up to around 1361.50. With the disappointing earnings news today you have to wonder who's doing the buying today. It really doesn't take much wondering though.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 11:41:24 AM

VIX 11.53 +0.08%

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 11:41:02 AM

SPY $135.17 -0.17% ... DAILY Pivot here. SFB-WF $1.90 x $2.00

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 11:27:45 AM

* NYSE VOLUME 521.8M
* NYSE HAS 1,288 ADVANCERS
* NYSE HAS 1,705 DECLINERS
* NYSE HAS 167 ISSUES UNCHANGED
* NYSE HAS 109 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK HIGHS
* NYSE HAS 7 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK LOWS
* NASDAQ VOLUME 650M
* NASDAQ HAS 1,146 GAINERS
* NASDAQ HAS 1,601 LOSERS
* NASDAQ HAS 177 ISSUES UNCHANGED
* NASDAQ HAS 45 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK HIGHS
* NASDAQ HAS 12 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK LOWS

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 11:27:14 AM

There have been quite a few "bad ticks" this morning and High/Lows in the U.S. Market Watch may not all be accurate (SPY, HUI.X to name just a couple).

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 11:25:05 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 11:23:16 AM

I had a request to do an analysis of Gold, although I did one yesterday (big smile and a wink)

This is the daily chart and the bullish wedge and MACD divergence tell me in the shortterm Gold is bullish. Link

But the longer term I rely on the weekly charts of the three markets Gold trades in unison with; US $, Swiss franc and Crude. These tell me Gold is bearish for the longer term Link

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 11:18:10 AM

I have been looking for the crude inventories and could not find them then I noticed an email from Linda.

Jane,
I believe crude inventories are delayed until tomorrow, because of the holiday Monday.
Linda

TKs Linda I guess I should check my emails a little more regularily

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 11:07:44 AM

VIX 11.62 +0.86% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 11:07:13 AM

Swing trade put filled alert with SPY $135.08 -0.14%

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 11:06:21 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 11:03:35 AM

The more immediately bearish setup I see here, if a top is in, is that we've got a 1-2, 1-2 wave count to the downside from yesterday's high. That would set us up for a strong 3rd of a 3rd wave down today and it would mean ES below 1350 rather quickly.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 10:59:28 AM

Bid two (2) of the SFB-WF for $2.00 ($1.95 x $2.05) here with SPY $135.05.

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 10:56:32 AM

The indices continue to chop their way higher. At first glance this is not bullish but instead looks like a corrective bounce and should be shorted. The more bullish possibility is that it's just part of a larger sideways consolidation that will resolve to the upside (will first need another pullback after this bounce is finished).

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 10:56:21 AM

Swing trade put setup alert for two (2) of the S&P Depository Receipts SPY Nov. $136 Puts (SFB-WF) .

Buy two (2) at the offer should the SPY trade $135.17.

SPY $135.11 ... SFB-WF $1.95 x $2.05.

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 10:56:13 AM

Opps TICKS +1000, always make me nervous if long.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/11/2006 10:47:21 AM

Back for a sec. Gold is trading above pivot (never listen to the media) and NQ is under the pivot, struggling with higher oil. Maybe this will be the trade that gives us 1684 before opex. See you later.

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 10:37:29 AM

With this spike up ES has now tagged the 1358.75 resistance level so now we'll get to see if the bulls are taking this back. Until then, this is the place to try a short, stop at 1361.50, two ticks above gap close.

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 10:29:02 AM

ES didn't make it up to 1358.75 (2 ticks shy) but it did make it up to its short term trend line along the recent lows of the past 3 days. We'll have to see if it pulls back and makes another attempt at its broken uptrend line from October 3rd but at this point I'd say the bulls are on the defense and have to get the ball back in order to win. Link

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 10:28:58 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures climbed above $580 an ounce Wednesday morning, attempting to recoup the prior day's loss as oil prices edged higher after a group of key oil producers finally agreed to cut production.

"If gold does indeed deserve to close out the year on a high(er) note, it will do so only after having proven to its faithful that it does retain its security blanket attributes after all," said Jon Nadler, an investment products analyst at bullion dealers Kitco.com.

"It is not that gold's fundamentals are shaky; it just needs to re-align itself with one or more traditional drivers of demand and exhibit better correlation," he said.

Gold for December delivery climbed by $6.60 at $576.20 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after losing $6.60 in the previous session.

On Wednesday, Edmund Daukoru, president of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries who also serves as Nigeria's oil minister, said OPEC has agreed to cut its global production by 1 million barrels per day in a move to boost prices, but were still discussing how to share the cut, Dow Jones Newswires reported.

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 10:26:12 AM

Crude inventories in 5 minutes.

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 10:25:07 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- A surge in tax receipts outpaced growth in spending, trimming the size of the federal deficit to $248 billion in fiscal 2006, the Treasury Department announced Wednesday.

The deficit declined $71 billion from the $319 billion gap recorded in 2005. President Bush was expected to use the figures to claim vindication for his economic policies, particularly his first-term tax cuts.

Both receipts and spending grew in 2006 to record levels, with revenues surging 11.8% to $2.407 trillion and outlays growing by 7.4% to $2.654 trillion. The final deficit figure was an improvement on the White House's summer estimate of a $296 billion shortfall.

It's a more dramatic drop from the White House's initial February estimate of a $423 billion deficit, which would have been a record in dollar terms. Critics at the time decried the projection as a highball figure designed to ensure that the actual budget gap would look better by comparison.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 10:24:52 AM

CPKI's WEEKLY Pivot $31.34, did undercut WEEKLY S1 $30.36 with session low of $29.78. WEEKLY S2 is a buy at $28.69 in my opinion. Since CPKI has let the cat out of the bag on earnings, move to the sidelines and look for something that is more "oversold."

Marc Eckelberry : 10/11/2006 10:24:38 AM

NQ closed the gap. Now we waffle around until oil inventories. I will be gone today, watch your step, trade it, don't love it.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 10:21:21 AM

CPKI $31.38 x $31.42

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 10:21:08 AM

Some days you can feel the bull's strength and others you can feel the bear's strength. Today you can feel the battle between the two.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 10:20:28 AM

Bullish swing trade exit/close out alert ... for the remaining California Pizza Kitchen (CPKI) at the bid of $31.38, limit $31.30.

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 10:14:56 AM

Jeff, you don't suppose B of A's downgrade of AMTD had anything to do with its own offering of free online trading do you? That wouldn't be sporting.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 10:08:09 AM

Online brokers under selling pressure ... Bank of America offering free online stock trades ... Reuters Story Link

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 10:06:38 AM

These are certainly bearish. Link

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 10:04:42 AM

TRIN is a very bearish 1.34 and well above its PDR.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 10:04:18 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 10:07:04 AM

If ES can jump back up and close 50% of this morning's gap (a typical move if the bottom of the gap doesn't hold), that would take it to 1258.75. This is also the level of the broken uptrend line from Oct 3rd. It would make for a good short play setup.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 9:58:31 AM

E*Trade (ET) $22.18 -9.32% ... also weak.

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 9:57:11 AM

Gee, I wonder who's doing the buying here.

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 9:56:28 AM

ES and Ym are struggling with their PDLs.

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 9:57:25 AM

California Pizza Kitchen (CPKI) $30.87 -3.74% ... Downgraded to "outperform" from "strong buy" at Raymond James citing stock's price.

Note: Yesterday evening, CPKI raised its Q3 outlook saying it now expects to post a profit of $0.33-$0.34/share, up from August's guidance of $0.32-$0.33/share. Sales forecasted at $142.8 million, up 15% from $124.5 million last year.

CPKI Outlook Link

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 9:53:25 AM

I was just looking at the chart of the brokers and noticed that the recent rally to 240.12 was only pennies from closing the gap from April 24th (240.25), just after its annual high of 242.09 on April 21st. The 60-min red candle this morning is the nastiest one I see since its April high. By that measure alone it says we have a change in behavior here (now down just over 4%).

Jeff Bailey : 10/11/2006 9:48:49 AM

TD Ameritrade (AMTD) $17.42 -8.90% ... Downgraded at Bank of America Securities. Trims EPS estimate for company's Q4 to $0.22/share from $0.24.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/11/2006 9:44:20 AM

SOX is up and oil is about to drop, so if you want to be short, be patient.

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 9:41:12 AM

Brokers are down hard as well--down 3.5% and still dropping.

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 9:39:35 AM

The Trannies are getting hit hard this morning--down 57 (-1.1%) and still dropping.

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 9:37:57 AM

The kind of buying spike in all the indices right here is pretty good proof that there is big money that's holding this market up. They'll do whatever they can to stem the selling.

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 9:35:59 AM

Ah Ha just like I thought AD line is a very bearish -1118 and Ad volume below 0 and falling.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/11/2006 9:33:53 AM

Maybe...

Marc Eckelberry : 10/11/2006 9:30:15 AM

Oil should get one push down, which will probably get equities to move and close those gaps.

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 9:28:51 AM

Jane, that list of companies is a veritable who's who in corporate filth. Unfortunately our politicians and corporate leaders have vividly demonstrated the age old axiom that power corrupts. I suspect that some day (soon?) we'll see exposed the same corruption between the SEC, the Fed and the heads of the major banks. People who believe they're invincible and above the law usually find otherwise sooner or later.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/11/2006 9:26:53 AM

Up goes gold on the weaker dollar.

Keene Little : 10/11/2006 9:18:42 AM

Today we should find out if we're going to just stay within the trading range of the past 4 days, which could be interpreted as a bullish setup, or if we'll break down below that range. Friday's lows of ES 1352.50 and YM 11866 need to hold in order for the bullish scenario to hold up. The lows in the pre-market are 1356.25 and 11876.

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 9:15:42 AM

Here is a scorecard for the options scandal. Link

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 9:14:14 AM

Dateline WSJ - McAfee Inc. announced that George Samenuk has resigned as the company's chairman and chief executive in the wake of findings of a stock-options probe by a special committee of the company's board. The board terminated the employment of Kevin Weiss as president.

The board named Dale Fuller as interim CEO and president. Mr. Fuller joined the board in January 2006 and served more than six years as chief executive and president of Borland Software Corp.

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 9:13:25 AM

CNET Networks said Chairman and CEO Shelby Bonnie resigns after a probe found backdating of stock options. The company's general counsel and head of human resources also resign. - And another one hits the dust

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 9:03:29 AM

Dateline WSJ - Alcoa, the first blue-chip company to report earnings, said late Tuesday that it earned $537 million in third-quarter net income, or 61 cents a share, up 86% from a year ago but short of analysts' estimates of 77 cents a share. The company said lower metal prices hurt results. The stock fell 6% in after-hours trading, according to Inet. Alcoa shares were off 5.8% in premarket trading.

Among other stocks to watch, McAfee announced that George Samenuk has resigned as the company's chairman and chief executive in the wake of findings of a stock-options probe. The board terminated the employment of Kevin Weiss as president.

Genentech late Tuesday reported net earnings of $568 million, or 53 cents a share, up 58% from a year ago. Revenue rose to $2.38 billion from $1.75 billion. Analysts had been looking for a profit of 51 cents a share.

Legg Mason after Tuesday's closing bell said it expects net per-share income for the second quarter, ended Sept. 30, will be 96 cents to $1.02, while Wall Street is looking for $1.16. The asset-manager cited lower-than-expected revenue. Shares dropped 12% in premarket trading.

Monsanto posted a wider loss in its fiscal fourth quarter of $144 million, or 27 cents a share, from $125 million, or 23 cents a share in the same period a year ago. Revenue at the seed and herbicide manufacturer rose 9% to $1.39 billion.

Gannett reported third-quarter net income of $261.4 million, or $1.11 a share, compared with $297 million, or $1.22 a share. Analysts had called for the media company to report earnings per share of $1.11.

Yum Brands, the operator of KFC, Taco Bell and Pizza Hut restaurants, is expected to report third-quarter earnings of 75 cents a share.

The economic calendar for Wednesday is light, though investors will keep an eye on a speech by Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker and the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's Sept. 20 meeting.

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 9:00:13 AM

ER could revist support at 728 and still remain bullish. Link

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 8:56:53 AM

Ditto here. Link

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 8:56:06 AM

Resistance from May continues to be ES's current support however this may break today and if it does the bearish wedge could easily break downward as well. Link

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 8:53:25 AM

Daily chart of NQ is getting bearish. Notice the bearish Tweezer top from Monday and Tuesday. Based on this chart I think I will buy QQQQ puts today. Link

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 8:48:43 AM

TBonds, Natural Gas and Gold all stayed within their PDRs overnight but Oil was the only one that broke its PDL. Link

Jane Fox : 10/11/2006 8:59:02 AM

Good morning all. Equity markets were bearish overnight with both ES and YM breaking their PDLs. ER tested its PDL but did not break it and NQ was able to stay within its PDR. This sets us up for a bearish intraday. I would bet the AD line and volume start the day bearish as well. The markets need to burn off some of its overbot condition so a little bearishness for a few days is only a good thing. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 10/11/2006 7:19:44 AM

Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. housing slump will weaken the economy more than previously forecast, prompting the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates by June, a Bloomberg News survey showed. The economy grew at an annual rate of 2.5 percent last quarter and will maintain that pace in the final three months of the year, according to the median forecast of 82 economists surveyed from Oct. 2 through Oct. 10. Both estimates are down from the previous month's survey and less than the 2.6 percent rate in the second quarter reported by the Commerce Department.

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