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Tab Gilles : 10/13/2006 1:14:34 AM

Interesting chart of the $DJIA from chartofthe day.com. Link

Tab Gilles : 10/13/2006 12:37:15 AM

Technology continues to lead this rally...however, in my opinion we are getting somewhat overbought. Although my indicators haven't given an outright sell signal, I'm staying long, but cautious. Below are several additional charts to study.

Open Positions Portfolio & Stock WatchAs per 11:43AM post BTU was added to Portfolio today at $40.50. Link

$NDX/$NAA daily Link

$NAHGH/$NALOW 10-ema weekly Link

Bullish Percentage $NDX ($BPNDX) Link

Nasdaq Summation ($NASI) Link

$NDXA50 & $NDXA200 Link

Getting Close on the 200 chart to overbought... Link

Profund UltraOTC (UOPIX) Link

Profund Ultra SmallCap (UAPIX) Link

Marc Eckelberry : 10/12/2006 11:01:25 PM

The only decent session left to trade is overnight when the Wall Street hoodlums are sleeping.

Tab Gilles : 10/12/2006 10:53:20 PM

EIA Weekly Report Link

Marc Eckelberry : 10/12/2006 10:50:14 PM

We are not the only ones screaming foul.
Kevin Haggerty:
Market action continues to indicate that the mid-term election is a prop under the market. There have been some sharp +10-20% straight up moves in many individual stocks, and this means the shorts are scrambling. Any hint of a geopolitical crisis brings in the "mystery futures buyers" to get the buy programs going. Intervention in the markets used to be very subtle and infrequent since the 1987 crash, but now I'm sorry to say it looks to be blatant. Link

Keene Little : 10/12/2006 10:01:21 PM

Friday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 10/12/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/12/2006 9:55:44 PM

Alert: NQ GTC short signal: 1749, stop 1756.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/12/2006 9:53:51 PM

Alert: QM long 57.35, stop 57.35, sell to close at 58.75.
This market is volatile, so I would book profits if we hit that level.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/12/2006 9:48:22 PM

Next level of resistance for SPX is 1367/1368, which would be about ES 1375.50. I would patiently wait for that to book profits or go short. In fact, my guess for SPX week high is 1367.79.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/12/2006 8:58:19 PM

NQ still has upside risk to 1749 if 1725 holds.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/12/2006 8:48:16 PM

Alert: QM long 57.35, raise stop to even.

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 5:51:48 PM

Out of Office ... I will be away from the MM tomorrow and plan on being back Monday morning.

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 5:45:07 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Today's Activity

Swing trade sold one (1) covered call in the Altria MO Oct. $80 (MO-JP) for $0.80. I would NOT want to be NAKED these calls.

Swing trade closed out one (1) of the S&P Depository Receipts SPY Nov. $136 Puts (SFB-WF) at the bid of $1.40 when the SPY was trading $136.25. ($-0.60, or -30.00%)

Day traded long shares of Yum Brands (YUM) at the offer of $58.37 (Stop= $57.60 : Tgt= $59.25) and exited at $58.95 ($+0.58/share, or +0.99%)

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 5:13:43 PM

Swing trade sell covered call setup alert tomorrow, should shares of Freeport McMoran rally above $55 strike, please sell one (1) of the FCX Oct. $60 Calls (FCX-JL) for $0.80 as partially covered against the currently long 90 shares (1/2 position).

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 5:06:48 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 4:51:42 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 4:03:23 PM

So true Jane ... so true. I hope some traders got some YUM!

Jane Fox : 10/12/2006 4:01:03 PM

C U all 2morrow.

Jane Fox : 10/12/2006 4:00:39 PM

Hopefully all futures traders were able to grab a little of this rally. The internals were very very clear that today would be a buy and hold type of day.

Jane Fox : 10/12/2006 3:58:52 PM

Friday the 13th has a plethora of economic reports we will need to navigate.

8:30a.m. Sept Import Prices. Previous: +0.8%.

8:30a.m. Sept Retail And Food Sales. Previous: +0.2%.

8:30a.m. Sept Retail Sales, Ex-Autos. Previous: +0.2%.

10:00a.m. Mid-Oct U.Of Mich Consumer Sentiment Index. Previous: 85.5.

10:00a.m. Aug Business Inventories. Previous: +0.6%.

Keene Little : 10/12/2006 3:50:01 PM

The highs will likely be held into the close today. If (big if) we're topping out here, and there are a lot of signals telling me that's a real possibility, then we could get a quick move higher tomorrow morning followed by a new low. That would give us a key reversal day which is pure speculation at this point but I'm liking the setup so far.

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 3:47:42 PM

YUM $59.25 ... looked like it was going to stall out at 19.1% "dynamic" of $58.99.

Jane Fox : 10/12/2006 3:43:50 PM

Dow's daily high so far has been 11959.63.

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 3:42:49 PM

Day trade long exit alert for YUM $58.95

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 3:38:05 PM

Day trade long finger on the button alert ... YUM $58.93

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 3:18:53 PM

Swing trade put close partial alert ... with the SPY $136.25 ... close/sell long one (1) of the SPY Nov. $136 Puts (SWF-WF) at the bid of $1.40.

Jane Fox : 10/12/2006 3:17:52 PM

I was expecting a little more of a rally than this taking into account the rally from yesterday's close that was probably expecting too much.

Keene Little : 10/12/2006 3:14:02 PM

One other thing to note about today--there's a great market analyst I like to follow (Jeff Cooper) who points out that today, the Thursday before opex week, is often a "misdirection" day. It happened last month where the market was driven down hard and then did a reversal and rallied hard into opex week. His point is that we could see the opposite thing happen this cycle.

Jane Fox : 10/12/2006 3:06:29 PM

The cash index is "only" at a high of 11943.

Jane Fox : 10/12/2006 3:05:35 PM

YM hits 12000

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 3:03:08 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 10/12/2006 2:46:07 PM

Pull everyone and their mother into this with the expectation that DOW 12K will be reached and then pull the plug before it gets there. It would be fitting don't you think?

Keene Little : 10/12/2006 2:43:57 PM

SPX hit its Fib target at 1361 (2 cents shy so far), COMP is only 4 points from its Fib target at 2338, XBD (brokers) is pennies from its Fib target/broken uptrendline at 233.66 (high so far 233.20) and several others look to be tagging some potentially important levels. I'm getting REAL tired of picking tops but this is another one that greatly interests me here.

Jim Brown : 10/12/2006 2:36:01 PM

Looks like almost a perfect setup to spike to Dow 12000 tomorrow and then die.

Keene Little : 10/12/2006 2:32:41 PM

If, and it's a big if so far, price were to roll over here and drop back below this afternoon's low, it would leave a rather significant bearish divergence on the 15-min chart at the same time that the 30 and 60-min charts are overbought. Be careful if you bought this break higher.

Keene Little : 10/12/2006 2:30:15 PM

As we get closer to opex I keep wondering what the Boyz will do to make their gazillions this month. Can they really drive this that much higher so that buying cheap calls will work for them? Or would it be better to be buying cheap puts as this gets driven higher now? I would think the latter.

And if it's puts they're buying we should see a flush next week (and then a push back up into the end of the month to retest the high, and get us through elections). That's my guess based purely on how I think the Boyz could make the most money next week.

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 2:26:57 PM

SPY alert $136.07 +0.71% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 2:26:30 PM

Day trade long entry alert for YUM $58.35

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 2:23:56 PM

Bullish day trade long setup alert for shares of YUM Brands (YUM) $58.13 +6.52% ... go long on a trade at $58.35, stop $57.60, target $59.25.

Keene Little : 10/12/2006 2:19:32 PM

The bond market gave a yawn of a response to the Beige Book numbers whereas the stock market bounced. Any question the stock market is in lala land? But it's certainly too early to be thinking short. DOW 12K here we come. Or is that too obvious?

Jane Fox : 10/12/2006 2:07:01 PM

Here are some beige book highlights


Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 2:04:05 PM

Beige Book Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 2:02:54 PM

Beige Book headlines hitting the news wire.

Jane Fox : 10/12/2006 2:02:22 PM

VIX confirming ES's new daily highs.

Jane Fox : 10/12/2006 2:01:16 PM

TICKs +1000

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 2:00:59 PM

SPY 5-minute interval chart with yesterday's plane crash reaction and trade at WEEKLY Pivot Link

Jane Fox : 10/12/2006 1:55:05 PM

TICKs +800.

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 1:52:49 PM

SPY $135.77 +0.48% .... WEEKLY R1 is $136.06 and DAILY R2 $136.07.

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 1:52:44 PM

Two very interesting and informative posts by Jane at 01:34:35 and 01:34:53.


Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 1:47:16 PM

L'Oreal 9 Month's Sales +8.3% EUR11.65B

DJ- French cosmetics company L'Oreal SA (12032.FR) Thursday said sales in the first nine months of the year rose 8.3% to EUR11.64 billion compared with the same period a year earlier.

The company also expressed "confidence in the prospects for the fourth quarter" and reaffirmed its sales and profit targets for the year.

The nine-month increase was slightly below analyst expectations of a 8.9% rise, according to a Dow Jones Newswires poll of three analysts.

Jane Fox : 10/12/2006 1:34:53 PM

We have everything in place for a big late day rally.

Jane Fox : 10/12/2006 1:34:35 PM

Wow - these just don't get any more bullish. Link

Jane Fox : 10/12/2006 1:30:40 PM

The charts I posted at 1:27 is an excellent example of a bullish price moving sideways and MACD falling. Some think this is bearish but I read it as bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 1:30:28 PM

Ameritrade (AMTD) $17.10 +1.66% ... did tick a penny above the $17.50 strike, but that has been it so far.

Jane Fox : 10/12/2006 1:27:30 PM

MACD is saying the futures have higher highs in the future. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 1:25:08 PM

I thought Goldman Sachs (GS) $180.35 +0.73% Link ... might at least see a pullback to $168.

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 1:22:04 PM

Keene (01:20:27) ... that's what I was thinking, or thought I was observing yesterday morning.

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 1:20:54 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 10/12/2006 1:20:27 PM

It looks like another high level consolidation after the quick rally this morning which suggests higher highs ahead. One of these days they're going to fool us and let it drop out of one of these consolidations. The sell off from something like that is usually quick because too many traders were leaning to the long side as they've become accustomed to believing these consolidations will just continue higher. That will soon be a dangerous assumption.

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 1:14:44 PM

QCharts users ... if you didn't know ... once you place a retracement on your chart, if you "right click" your mouse when the cursor is covering the retracement bracket, you can set alerts at the levels displayed.

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 1:06:39 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 1:04:07 PM

Between PD, FCX and RIO, it would be my opinion that PD is "the leader," and FCX has perhaps shown more relative strength than RIO (RIO was weak due to Inco bid), but FCX perhaps "lags" a bit today (about even with RIO yesterday).

Tab Gilles : 10/12/2006 12:58:14 PM

The Internet is still expanding and Google buying YouTube for $1.6B is proof that technology will lead this rally as I've stated time and time again.

Interesting chart... Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 12:57:55 PM

Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce (RIO) $23.98 +2.52% ... May high/June low close retracement at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 12:44:02 PM

Phelps Dodge (PD) $92.38 +1.69% ... with high/low close retracement (blue) and inflection high/low retracement (pink) at this Link ... monitoring that "doji" close from 09/07/06.

Keene Little : 10/12/2006 12:42:40 PM

As for an upside target for the COMP, I have an internal Fib projection for the current wave up at 2338. This would also be a retest of its broken long term uptrend line from October 2002 through October 2005 (which was broken back in June). I'd seriously think about some longer term put options on QQQQ if that level gets tagged (only 10 points away).

Keene Little : 10/12/2006 12:39:46 PM

Another bearish pattern that I showed yesterday is for the COMP. It has formed a bearish broadening pattern known as an expanding triangle (bulloney bullhorn as Jonathan liked to call them) and it's usually a reversal pattern, and has the bearish divergences to support that interpretation. This pattern, while price is pressing the top of its channel/wedge, does not inspire bullishness in me. We don't know how much longer this silliness can continue but it is a warning flag for the bulls here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 12:32:12 PM

Freeport McMoran (FCX) my bar chart with April high close to June low close retracement at this Link ... Note: Longer-term h/s pattern (red) and near-term potential h/s pattern (blue)

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 12:19:31 PM

Freeport McMoran (FCX) $53.79 +1.03% Link ... Can see the potential h/s top formation (l shoulder $58.50 and head $61.50). My QCharts 200-day SMA is at $56.18.

Stockcharts' is lower as they adjust historical price for payment of dividends.

Keene Little : 10/12/2006 12:13:46 PM

The brokers are getting a nice bounce today after getting hammered yesterday. Currently trading 232.01 it has achieved slightly more than a 38% retracement (232.14) thus far and if it can get to a 50% retracement (common for what I think is a 2nd wave correction here) then that'll be at 233.66. This would also be a retest of its broken uptrend line from May 2005. From a technical perspective that would make an ideal short entry. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 12:13:37 PM

Apex Silver (SIL) $13.99 -2.44% Link ... continues to trade weak from 10/03/06 inflection high.

RIO $23.97 +2.47% Link looked very similar that day and I thought rather certain that ALL metals (non ferrous and precious metal stocks) were headed lower.

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 11:59:24 AM

United Parcel Service (UPS) $73.78 +0.09% ... can NOT break free of its WEEKLY Pivot $73.98 so far this week.

Keene Little : 10/12/2006 11:56:20 AM

Last week everyone was leaning on the side of the boat that said CORRECTION next week. Well that was like spitting into the wind. Now everyone is beginning to lean on the side of there is no top ever ever. Could we be near the TOP?

Good question Dave. I was thinking the same thing, especially as we head into opex. The mega banks' trading teams like to get the market moving one way and then hit it hard to go the other way and get traders to bail on their positions. That way they can make their gazillions with cheap front-month OTM options (puts in this case would be the idea). But trying to get into the heads of these traders who have the money to move the market is a real challenge. Oh what I wouldn't give for a wire tap into their room.

Keene Little : 10/12/2006 11:50:23 AM

It does seem a little odd that on a relatively strong day for the market that the semis are still in the red. That's usually not a good sign.

Jane Fox : 10/12/2006 11:51:46 AM

Tradestation is currently is experiencing a problem affecting the delivery of electronic NYMEX market data.

Jane Fox : 10/12/2006 11:43:51 AM

YORK (MarketWatch) - Acme Packet on Thursday upped its price range for its looming stock market debut as the tech sector continues its autumn recovery in the market for initial public offerings.

Acme Packet increased the price range of its IPO to $8-$9 a share, from $6.50-$7.50 a share.

The Burlington, Mass. maker of gear for secure voice over Internet services kept the size of the IPO at 11.47 million shares.

At the midpoint of the range, Acme Packet will raise $97.5 million, up from $80 million. Acme Packet is expected to price its IPO on Thursday night for its stock market debut Friday under the symbol "APKT".

Keene Little : 10/12/2006 11:43:21 AM

I'm getting several emails from bears who are throwing in the towel. It's unfortunately (for the bears) what we need to see.

Tab Gilles : 10/12/2006 11:43:00 AM

Open Positions Portfolio Link

Tab Gilles : 10/12/2006 11:35:31 AM

Peabody Energy (BTU)

Recommending Buy for Open Position Portfolio. Entered at $40.50 Link Link

Also, for those wanting to go with options look at March $40 Call...(BTUCH).

Jane Fox : 10/12/2006 11:29:11 AM

I just had a subsciber remind me that I bot QQQQ puts yesterday. Needless to say they are underwater and I will be bailing today because the kind of bullishness I am seeing today means the any bearishness on the daily charts will probably not play out.

Keene Little : 10/12/2006 11:24:32 AM

Jeff, I agree with you--I show SPX 1360-1361 as an upside target and potential resistance. Short term divergences showing on MACD and the 30 and 60-min charts are overbought. It doesn't mean a turn back down right away but it does support the idea that resistance just above will hold. Either that or we're in the midst of the blow-off top. Take your pick.

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 11:24:15 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 11:20:32 AM

SPY is going to go $136.00 today. Or it looks like it to me.

Jane Fox : 10/12/2006 11:20:17 AM

TICKS +1000

Jane Fox : 10/12/2006 11:13:28 AM

Keene I agree but I have found once the AD line gets above +1000 those divergences don't help me a great deal.

Keene Little : 10/12/2006 11:10:35 AM

Jane, your 11:01 post shows the short term negative divergence with the a-d line vs. the new price high just before 11:00. It might be good for just a pullback though.

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 11:04:37 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 10/12/2006 11:04:10 AM

Then you have the VIX confirming the AD bullishness and you almost have a slam dunk! THis is not saying these can't change but for now the bulls are in the drivers seat and when the internals are this bullish they usually stay that way all day. Notice I said usually, the highest probability is that we will remain bullish all day. Link

Jane Fox : 10/12/2006 11:01:04 AM

I'll keep posting these just in case you get an urge to short. Also burn this AD volume formation into your brain because it is about as bullish as you can get. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 11:00:27 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Keene Little : 10/12/2006 10:58:47 AM

From a short term perspective, the bounce off yesterday's low looks very close to finishing a 5-wave move up (it might get another minor high). It could mean the end of the rally or it could mean we're just due a pullback to correct this leg up. In either case I think it's late to chase this higher. I'd at least wait for a pullback correction (which, granted, are as rare as hens teeth).

Jane Fox : 10/12/2006 10:58:07 AM

Crude is once again losing its religion and almost testing its yearly lows. So much for all those bullish divergences.

Jane Fox : 10/12/2006 10:47:37 AM

Don't even think about shorting this market.

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 10:45:56 AM

EIA Weekly Crude Oil, Gasoline, Distillate, Nat. Gas Storage Table at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 10/12/2006 10:35:27 AM

I have to go. THe QM long is cruising now at +80 or 400 per contract. Raise stops. See you later.

Tab Gilles : 10/12/2006 10:31:53 AM

Crude Oil +2.4M bbl

Gasoline +300K BBL

Distillates -106M BBL

Keene Little : 10/12/2006 10:29:59 AM

Doing the same kind of analysis on the DOW as I've done for SPX shows the DOW just a stone's throw from its first Fib projection at 11924, which is also at the top of its latest ascending wedge. Interestingly the next Fib projection (for waves a and c to be equal) is at 12003. As the Church Lady would say, isn't that special. But bulls beware that we've achieved the minimum target to be able to call this rally complete. Link

Jane Fox : 10/12/2006 10:27:50 AM

CRude inventories out in 5 minutes. Natural Gas inventories should also be out at 10:30 today but they may have been delayed because of Columbus day just like the Crude inventories were.

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 10:19:36 AM

Bullish swing trade establish stop alert ... Let's establish a stop on the Ameritrade Jan $17.50 Calls (TWA-AW) to sell them should the underlying shares trade $16.95. Still looking to exit on any further strength near $18.00

AMTD $17.32 +2.97% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 10/12/2006 10:19:17 AM

This could be a 40 point day for NQ if 1724 breaks. Then we hit 1749, which caps it, at least for opex. But bulls will still need to get 1724.

Keene Little : 10/12/2006 10:14:41 AM

One caution for momo players today is that this day (Thursday before opex) tends to be volatile. That could mean we're in for a jam to the upside that ends up being a bull trap. I have no idea if that will happen but it wouldn't surprise me.

Jane Fox : 10/12/2006 10:12:37 AM

TICKS +1000, a sure sign we are getting overbot.

Jane Fox : 10/12/2006 10:11:05 AM

WE are getting way overbot now and the markets need to take a rest. If they take that rest in a sideways move that is as close as you can get to assuring higher highs later in the day. However, if a retracement is too deep and the internals make a bearish turn I will have to reassess but for now the only trade is long.

Keene Little : 10/12/2006 10:08:38 AM

I had shown a 240-min chart of SPX yesterday that described a more complex EW count that could be playing out here. I have to admit that this never-ending rally has me a bit stymied as to what's propping it up (except Fed money and momo players) and where resistance might be. Yesterday's chart showed the possibility that another a-b-c wave pattern, as part of a double zig-zag count (for those following the wave count), needs wave-c up and it would appear that's what we're getting now. This 60-min chart is a little closer view of that. Link

The first upside Fib projection off this count is at SPX 1361 (cash) which is also at the top of its latest ascending wedge today. If the market will be held up through opex week then the next Fib target at 1371 (cash) late next week could be in play. Negative divergences continue but so what. There are other forces at work here.

Jane Fox : 10/12/2006 10:07:56 AM

NQ has made a double top right at its PDH.

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 10:04:28 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 10/12/2006 10:03:53 AM

TICKS +800. I just don't want to see TICK +1000.

Jane Fox : 10/12/2006 10:03:07 AM

AD line at +1421, AD volume climbing and the VIX hugging daily lows. It can't get much clearer.

Jane Fox : 10/12/2006 10:00:16 AM

I won't be betting against these two today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/12/2006 9:58:51 AM

Swing trade sell covered call alert ... let's sell one (1) of the Altria MO Oct $80 Calls (MO-JP) at the bid of $0.80.

MO $78.55 -0.36% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 10/12/2006 9:55:03 AM

SOX is down. NQ 1713.50 is back as resistance it seems.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/12/2006 9:52:34 AM

NO matter what the press says, OPEC will support this area. Furthermore, we hit weekly S1 on a bullish divergence. And I like T Boone Pickens. At least I don't mind betting with him.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/12/2006 9:51:21 AM

Alert: Long QM 57.35, raise stop to 57.20. Target is still 59.45 if not stopped out. Conservative traders book +.30 now.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/12/2006 9:43:02 AM

The VIX is inching its way back down into lala land.

Keene Little : 10/12/2006 9:40:10 AM

Question from a reader: Who are the big futures players pre market?

Good question Dave. My guess is that the big money mega banks are involved, especially since it's easy to move the market around in low-volume times. Anyone else have any ideas?

Marc Eckelberry : 10/12/2006 9:37:28 AM

QQQQ 42 has strong cll resistance. That would be close to NQ 1724, weekly R1. Ultimately, this rally could go to 1749, but that would pretty much contain it.

Jane Fox : 10/12/2006 9:35:43 AM

Oh my goodness AD line is +1301 and AD volume well above 0 and climbing. The ball is firmly in the hands of the bulls today.

Jane Fox : 10/12/2006 9:30:22 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures reversed losses to trade a bit higher early Thursday, as traders awaited weekly data expected to show supplies of oil and its products are still comfortably above their average levels for the time of year.

Crude for November delivery was last up 14 cents at $57.73 a barrel, off an early low of $57.22. The contract lost almost 4% of its value in the past two sessions as traders voiced doubt that an agreement between key oil producers to cut production will put much of a dent in hefty supplies.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said Wednesday it has agreed on a 1 million barrel a day output cut but has yet decide how to share the cut.

"With OPEC still struggling to coordinate an intended production cut, the market is discounting that today's U.S. inventory data will show a fresh build in stocks," said economists at research firm Action Economics.

The Energy Department and the American Petroleum Institute are due to release weekly data on levels of oil and its products at 10.30 a.m. Eastern. The data come a day later than usual because of the Columbus Day holiday on Monday.

Analysts at Wachovia Corp. are expecting the data to show that crude supplies rose 1.5 million barrels for the week ended Oct. 6. A survey of analysts conducted by Platts shows that the market is expecting a 1.8 million-barrel climb. In contrast, Fimat USA is predicting a decline of 1.7 million.

Jane Fox : 10/12/2006 9:20:17 AM

Both Natural Gas and Gold are making new overnight lows.

Keene Little : 10/12/2006 9:11:16 AM

ES is back to the top of its trading range at 1362.50. It's certainly looking like it's going to finally break out. Just be careful of the ol' head fake break out and then drop back inside.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/12/2006 8:54:12 AM

If NQ gets up to 1724 area, it would be a great short entry.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/12/2006 8:53:36 AM

Futures are up on some earnings news from Mac donald and Pepsi and the belief oil is going to stay low. I think oil will bid up today and that we might have gotten a great entry at 57.35. Interestt rates are headed lower, on slow growth prospect, but inflation is still alive and well, so that mgiht not last. Careful.

Jane Fox : 10/12/2006 8:44:24 AM

Good morning all. Well it looks like the equity markets liked the Trade Deficit report out at 8:30 because right after its release all the markets made new overnight highs. Go figure! Notice ES has tagged its PDH, YM has broken its PDH and both ER and NQ are still with their previous day ranges. Link

Jane Fox : 10/12/2006 8:39:55 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. trade gap of goods and services set a new record high in August, driven up once again by a record price of crude oil, a government report showed Thursday.

The nation's trade deficit widened 2.7% to $69.9 billion from the previous record of $68.0 billion in July, the Commerce Department said.

The widening of the deficit surprised analysts. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists had been for the deficit to narrow to $66.4 billion. Economists had thought the July deficit was a temporary bulge.

The August trade data could force economists to trim their forecasts for third quarter gross domestic product, which have been coming down steadily to a rate below a 3.0% annual growth rate. The worsening trade deficit is a drag on economic growth.

The data should deflate optimism that the trade gap is leveling off this year. After seeming to run out of steam earlier this year, the trade deficit is now on pace to set a new record this year.

Jane Fox : 10/12/2006 8:35:45 AM

Dateline WSJ - The U.S. trade deficit hit an all-time record of $69.9 billion in August, reflecting then-high oil prices

Marc Eckelberry : 10/12/2006 8:10:51 AM

As for NQ, you should be out now, although I must say this advance looks like it could tumble any second. There is resistance at 1713.50, then it is pretty straight up to 1720/1724. But bulls could have a tough time with 1713.50. In fact, there is even resistance right here at 76.4% 1709. These sluggish moves up before a major news event can be reversed very quickly. We will see.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/12/2006 7:56:19 AM

QM still has risk, but the lower low at weekly S1 was made with a bullish divergence and there is a pretty good chance it will hold. It also corresponds to 59 on the December contract which will start being traded with volume at the end of next week when November contract expires (they do that a little early with QM).

Marc Eckelberry : 10/12/2006 7:47:49 AM

QM bid. Leave the stop at 57.15 for now on the long from 57.35, but raise it to even if we get really going.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/12/2006 6:31:14 AM

If NQ short gets stopped at 1708.75, then I would just stand aside and enter a short target at 1722, stop 1727.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/12/2006 6:14:23 AM

Lower the stop on QM long to 57.15.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/12/2006 6:09:25 AM

That one should be monitored a little more carefully and traded. Support is 1702.50.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/12/2006 6:08:54 AM

Techs look vulnerable tonight. If you prefer, you can also try an NQ short at 1706.50. Stop should be 1708.75.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/12/2006 5:57:25 AM

Exit target will be 59.45.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/12/2006 5:44:01 AM

Alert: QM reaches 57.25 support (week s1). Long 57.35, stop 57.20.

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