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Tab Gilles : 10/20/2006 1:16:02 AM

Open Positions Portfolio & Stock Watch List Link


$NDXA50/$NDXA200 daily Link Link



Nasdaq High/Low $NAHL daily 10-ema Link

Profunds UltraOTC (UOPIX) & Ultra SmallCap (UAPIX) Link Link

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 11:25:11 PM

Friday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 10/19/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 6:32:08 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Today's Activity

Day traded long shares of Freeport McMoran (FCX) at $58.10 (Target= $59.05), but was stopped out at $57.90. ($-0.20, or -0.34%)

Swing trade closed out, bought back the covered MO Oct. $80 Call (MO-JP) for $0.75. ($+0.05, or +6.25%) (see today's 11:53:00 AM post and multiple MO posts, thoughts for this decision).

Established stops for the MO and UPS long calls.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 6:20:27 PM

INDU 12,011.09 ... CLOSED just under its WEEKLY R1. This is "our daddy" in my opinion. At least within the WEEKLY Pivots.

#2 is SPX/SPY

#3 is NDX/QQQQ

Earlier today (11:47:01) I said/asked "Who's your daddy?" ... In my opinion, based on how the levels are being traded, the INDU is the strongest, then the SPY/SPX, and the NDX/QQQQ is softest.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 6:08:36 PM

BIX.X 396.28 ... closes on its WEEKLY S1.

XBD.X 227.23 ... WEEKLY S1 227.23, WEEKLY S2 220.76.

SPY 136.79 ... closes ABOVE its weekly Pivot.

Should the XBD.X every get back to its 09/13/06 close, I would suggest those long the SPY Nov. $136 Puts I've profiled have some spacial concept, or idea what to be ready to do. As in CLOSE OUT.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 5:42:37 PM

Bullish call establish stop alert ... Let's place a stop at $72 in the underlying shares of United Parcel Service for the UPS Jan $75 Calls (UPS-AO)

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 5:39:02 PM

Bullish call establish stop alert ... Let's place a stop at $79 in the underlying shares of Altria for the MO Jan $80 Calls (MO-AP)

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 5:31:27 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 5:14:11 PM

Good comment/thoughts Jim. See brokers and banks!

Yes ... there are some bullish profits since early September and EVEN mid-September!

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 5:00:19 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jim Brown : 10/19/2006 4:58:05 PM

With the FOMC meeting on Tuesday fears of unfriendly Fed comments could create some profit taking ahead of the meeting. 5 Fed heads made hawkish comments over the last week. Fed sentiment seems to be rising against allowing inflation to just evaporate slowly. The recent commentary has suggested the Fed should continue to attack it to make sure it drops quickly rather than just consolidate before a surprise flare up. With earnings much stronger than expected and certain economic indicators beginning to firm the Fed could release a more hawkish statement on Tuesday. They will probably not raise rates due to the political implications ahead of the election. Current Fed funds futures are pricing only a 6% chance of a cut before February and that is down from 50% last month. Clearly speculation is leaning toward a future Fed surprise.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 4:52:08 PM

SPY $136.81 +0.16% ... $136.83 extended.

Jim Brown : 10/19/2006 4:34:16 PM

SNDK - CEO of Sandisk saying there will be 550 million music enabled cell phones in use in 2007. That is an astounding number and you wonder if that will slow the iPod sales significantly.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 4:33:22 PM

QQQQ $42.04 extended ... pinned at WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 4:30:13 PM

SanDisk (SNDK) ... Earnings Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 4:29:20 PM

SanDisk (SNDK) $61.73 +2.64% ... plunges to $56.75 extended on earnings.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 4:28:37 PM

GOOG October "Max Pain" $410 ($10 increments) ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 4:26:30 PM

GOOG $452.74 ... WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... Piv= $429.03, $435.67, $444.49.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 4:24:26 PM

GOOG $453.17 ...

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 4:21:17 PM

In case the P/E is based on annual earnings (can't remember), the P/E would then be 43, based on $10.48 as the annual earnings. I feel much better about that number (wink).

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 4:18:11 PM

Jeff, if the brokers are able to bounce back up then I'll be forced to wipe the smile off my face. In the meantime it's one of those knowing smiles.

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 4:16:35 PM

At a price of $455, divided by $2.62 in earnings, gives us a P/E of almost 174. Reminiscent of a time not long ago.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 4:19:20 PM

I'd hold off on that smile Keene. A lot of frowns from mid-September. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 4:11:01 PM

QQQQ $41.90 +0.23% .... $42.00 extended

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 4:09:04 PM

Google (GOOG) ... Earnings Press Release Link

Jim Brown : 10/19/2006 4:08:55 PM

That +29 gain on GOOG should help the Nasdaq at the open!

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 4:08:02 PM

Google (GOOG) alert $426.06 +1.60% ... surging to $447.00 on earnings.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 4:07:15 PM

Canadian Natl. Railway (CNI) $45.13 +0.46% Link ... halted, news pending on earnings.

Jim Brown : 10/19/2006 4:07:54 PM

GOOG - Earnings $2.62 on gross rev $2.69B

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 4:06:43 PM

I agree Jim. But there will probably be too many bears hoping that's true and will continue to get their head handed to them for trying to short this market. I want to see VIX sub-10 now before I try any longer term short positions. I think we'll get it.

Jane Fox : 10/19/2006 4:03:57 PM

DOW closes at 12011.73

Jim Brown : 10/19/2006 4:03:11 PM

They finally nailed the 12K closing record on the Dow and that opens the door for a sell the news event. After 9 new highs over the last 13 days the Dow is due a rest.

Jane Fox : 10/19/2006 3:57:07 PM

There are no economic reports scheduled for release tomorrow.

Jim Brown : 10/19/2006 3:55:22 PM

Reader Challenge - The average of all Dow guesses was 11901.59. There were only 7 guesses for the Dow over 12000 with the vast majority of readers expecting some profit taking before the week was out. Those 7 guesses were:


The 12750 guess was accompanied by a 2359 guess for the Nasdaq but a slightly less bullish guess on the S&P of 1379. There were several higher guesses for the S&P with the highest at 1386.

Jane Fox : 10/19/2006 3:52:31 PM

VIx making new daily lows and AD volume making new daily highs. HMMMM!!

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 3:49:22 PM

I was thinking the same thing Jim. They're working hard to get DOW to stay above 12K for the close.

Jim Brown : 10/19/2006 3:46:24 PM

They are really struggling to close it over 12K but I think they will make it.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 3:31:58 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 3:27:50 PM

SAP Ag (SAP) $50.03 -3.36% ... looking pinned at $50 strike.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 3:25:46 PM

MO $80.12 +2.27% ... the risks are several. One is always MARKET risk at these high levels of bullish % and the NH/NL ratios. Another is that MO announces an acquisition as one analyst speculated they might.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 3:23:59 PM

If I had held two (2) of the MO-AP and had written two (2) of the MO-JP, I would have sold one (1) of the MO-AP and bought back both of the MO-JP.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 3:22:36 PM

MO Jan $80 Call holders ... I'm having a "tough month" in my MM profiles. If you are too, but hold 2 or more of the MO Jan $80 Calls, do NOT feel that you have to hold them ALL, looking for a gap and run higher on any potential spinoff decisions from the company.

See this morning's (11:53:00 AM EDT) speculation scenario(s)

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 3:10:38 PM

Any move in the VIX during opex is always suspect but I sure hope it keeps dropping to sub-10. Those long term put options will be dirt cheap.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 3:06:25 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 3:02:56 PM

$57.50 is mid-point of $55-$60 strikes. I took my shot.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 3:02:33 PM

Bullish day trade stop alert ... FCX $57.90

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 3:00:59 PM

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) $99,999 +0.57%

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 2:58:25 PM

The MO-JP have turned a bit. 630/848 Dn/UpTickVol.

MO $80.15 +2.31% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 2:56:25 PM

SPY $136.63 +0.02% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 2:56:04 PM

Good Gravy! ... VIX 10.87 -4.14% ... below DAILY S2.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 2:53:39 PM

iShares Silver (SLV) $120.49 +2.78% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 2:50:33 PM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $59.53 +1.60% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 2:50:09 PM

U.S. Oil Fund (USO) $53.83 +1.85% ....

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 2:49:03 PM

Alert! Globex Trade Of Nymex Futures Halted On Technical Problem

Jane Fox : 10/19/2006 2:48:23 PM

Dateline WSJ - WASHINGTON -- With just 19 days until the midterm elections, a new poll shows both President Bush and his party in worse shape among voters than Democrats were in the October before they lost control of Capitol Hill a dozen years ago.

Support for the Republican-led Congress has eroded to its lowest point since the party's watershed 1994 victory that brought it House and Senate majorities.

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll illustrates the political toll Republicans are paying for rising discontent over the Iraq war, as well as a spate of scandals including the disclosure that Republican House leaders knew of inappropriate emails to House pages from Florida Rep. Mark Foley, who resigned late last month. Voters' approval of Congress has fallen to 16% from 20% since early September, while their disapproval has risen to 75% from 65%.

Jane Fox : 10/19/2006 2:46:55 PM

Dateline WSJ - Former New York Stock Exchange Chief Executive Dick Grasso will have to "return tens of millions of dollars" to the Big Board in the wake of a partial summary judgment handed down this afternoon by a New York State judge, according to an official in Attorney General Eliot Spitzer's office.

The ruling itself wasn't immediately available and the Attorney General's summary of the decision couldn't be confirmed. Mr. Grasso couldn't be reached for comment but likely will appeal this afternoon's opinion.

This issue stems from Mr. Grasso's $187.5 million pay package awarded to him during his long-tenure as NYSE chairman and CEO. The hubbub over the pay resulted in his ouster from the NYSE in 2003.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 2:43:48 PM

PD $98.08 ... session high was a brief $98.35.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 2:43:11 PM

Bullish day trade raise stop alert on FCX $58.00 ... to $57.90

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 2:32:43 PM

And they got me. Out of my short at ES 1373.75. It being opexantics I'm not interested in any more trades today.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 2:31:31 PM

Swing trade covered call close out alert ... let's buy back the one (1) Altria MO Oct. $80 Calls (MO-JP) for $0.75.

MO $80.21 +2.39% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 2:29:52 PM

Let's take a chance alert ... it might be worth it.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 2:28:57 PM

U.S. Oil Fund (USO) $53.90 +1.98% ... edges back under WEEKLY Pivot.

XOM $69.75 +0.83% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 2:25:16 PM

PD $98.15 ...

FCX $58.10

RIO $24.44

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 2:12:03 PM

FCX $58.20

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 2:11:46 PM

PD alert $98.34

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 2:05:41 PM

United Parcel (UPS) $75.89 +4.80% ... set to test its 200-day SMA ($76.36). Today's trade at $76.00 does get the trade at Dorsey/Wright's PnF chart bearish resistance.

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 1:59:40 PM

I thought sure they were going to spike me out on that last run higher. I've resigned myself to the likelihood that we're probably not going to get any kind of sell off today but I'm stubbornly holding onto my short. I'll let price prove to me that it can rally from here.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 1:56:32 PM

I haven't been able to follow any of the OPEC headlines to this point.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 1:55:52 PM

XOM $69.95 +1.12% ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 1:54:47 PM

U.S. Oil Fund (USO) $53.93 +2.04% ... back at WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 1:53:43 PM

FCX Updated 5-minute interval chart with cursor set on that volume spike Link ... To me, volume means disagreement between buyers and sellers, interest among traders, and usually precedes some type of meaningful intra-day price action.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 1:40:59 PM

01:05 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 1:40:57 PM

ES is hitting its head at the top of its triangle now at 1373.25. I have this sense that I'm about to be spiked out of my short.

Jane Fox : 10/19/2006 1:39:23 PM

VIX to new daily lows suggest ES will make new daily highs but taking into consideration this is the day before OPEX Friday I wouldn't be putting my money on it. With that said even if ES does not make new daily highs the VIX is suggesting new daily lows are not just around the corner either.

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 1:37:19 PM

With the Philly Fed number at -0.7 vs last month's -0.4, and the expectation by the market for a big improvement to 6.5 in October, one could say we might have some confirmation that the economy is slowing. That must be a good thing judging by the behavior of the market here. The thinking of course is that a slowing economy means the Fed won't need to raise interest rates. Shh, don't remind people that it will also mean slowing earnings growth and lack of support for the lofty P/E ratios. The day of reckoning is not far away.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 1:32:21 PM

What needs to happen for FCX to get to target?

Yep ... Phelpsy above DAILY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 1:31:32 PM

Day trade long entry alert ... FCX $58.10.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 1:31:01 PM

PD $98.00 ... after session high of $98.29 (DAILY R1 $98.30)

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 1:25:48 PM

Bullish day trade setup adjustment alert for FCX $58.28 +3.29% ... still go long on a trade at $58.10, but raise stop to $57.80.

Jim Brown : 10/19/2006 1:19:55 PM

Reader Challenge - In case everyone did not see this post in the early morning hours on Wednesday I am going to repeat it. I created a chart of the reader challenge responses for the S&P to illustrate the range of guesses. The low guess was 1322 and the high guess 1386. By far the largest number of guesses were clustered in the 1350-1365 range with 1345-1350 receiving the largest number of votes. Link

With the S&P closing on Tuesday at 1365 this would tend to suggest that the majority of traders believe 1350 will be support on any end of week selling. It is also the level I targeted for a decision point in my Sunday market commentary. I had suggested buying a dip above 1350 and shorting a break under 1345. It appears many readers agree with that analysis.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 1:14:31 PM

See that volume on 5-minute intervals?

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 1:14:18 PM

Head fake break below the triangles? A rally above ES 1373.25 would say so. Moving stop down to 1373.75 just in case. That way I can buy myself a carmel mocha frappachino (sp?) instead of a plain coffee.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 1:13:20 PM

Bullish day trade setup alert ... go long FCX $58.18 +3.10% ... on a trade BACK at $58.10, stop $57.60, target $59.05.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 1:10:54 PM

FCX $58.10 ... PD does press best levels of session too.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 1:10:12 PM

01:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 1:07:05 PM

I've gotten my head handed to me too many times.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 1:06:17 PM

The worst time to put on a day trade is around 01:00

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 1:05:38 PM

RIO $24.36 +1.33% ... its DAILY R1 $24.41, WEEKLY R1 $24.57, DAILY R2 $24.77.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 1:04:02 PM

PD $97.89 +1.34% ... probes morning highs.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 1:03:17 PM

FCX ... from a pure risk/reward day trade perspective, best trade here is SHORT, stop $58.10, target $56.10. Swing traget would be $53.50.

Risking $0.10 to potentially make $2.00, or even $4.50.

A bull might use that against the bear at $58.10 as they assess risk to WEEKLY R2.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 12:58:48 PM

Truth be told ... When PUT RIO, I want to see FCX pattern play out to the downside.

However, when underwater on RIO, doesn't hurt to see the other side of a sector/stock trade.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 12:57:24 PM

FCX bull and bear scenario on 5-minute intervals at this Link

Jane Fox : 10/19/2006 12:57:10 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Activity in the factory sector in the Philadelphia region was flat for a second straight month in October, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported Thursday.

The Philly Fed index fell to negative 0.7 from negative 0.4 in September, the bank reported. Readings over zero in the diffusion index indicate most firms surveyed are growing. In October, 22% of firms said business conditions were better, while 23% said conditions had worsened.

The details were better than the headline, which is a gauge of overall business sentiment.

"Growth in the region's manufacturing sector is steady or up slightly this month," the bank's economists said. "Although the indicator for general activity suggests no overall growth, indexes for new orders, shipments, and employment suggest a slight improvement from last month."

Economists expected the index to bounce back to 7.8, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch.

Inflation pressures moderated for the third straight month. The prices-paid index fell to 32.0 in October vs. 38.1 in September. The prices-received index fell to 17.8 in October from 21.6 in September.

"Cost increases were less widespread," the bank said.

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 12:54:27 PM

The 30-min 100 and 130-pma's, at 1368 and 1366, resp., have been supporting ES's climb so keep an eye on those levels for potential support.

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 12:53:23 PM

A break below ES 1370.50 followed by a bounce up to the broken trend line and a failure from it would be the next best short entry.

Jane Fox : 10/19/2006 12:52:58 PM

Nq plunges below its PDL again and is threatening is daily lows.

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 12:51:54 PM

XBD making new lows (as a small smile starts to spread across his face).

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 12:50:31 PM

ES 1370.50 is now the bottom of its triangle, so being tested here.

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 12:49:48 PM

I'd sure like to lower my stop on my ES short but I want to keep it away from any potential whipsaw action. My stop at 1374.50 is now above the top of its little triangle so at least it should be safe, unless of course we get the bullish outcome in which case obviously I wouldn't want to be short. In fact I might even stop and reverse long there. In the meantime, I'm looking for volunteers to go in and short this. Wear your protective armor just in case.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 12:48:17 PM

MWSE is $58.06 on FCX $58.01 +2.81% ...

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 12:44:03 PM

If the little sideways triangles hold and we get the rally out of them, this is what I foresee for YM. Fib projections line up around YM 12200 for a high (I have no idea at this point if it would be THE high but it could be one of significance). YM achieved an important Fib projection when it hit 12074 so it's possible the rally is done. It takes a break below this morning's 12014 low to negate the bullish setup. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 12:38:33 PM

I say we go for a long ....

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 12:34:55 PM

QQQQ ... 15-minute interval chart with my WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link ... sure has the look that after MONTHLY R2 was traded, inventory being replenished at MONTHLY R1. WEEKLY Pivot showing some resistance.

Not a bank in the bunch.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 12:23:47 PM

If I/we haven't been squeezed enough. Felt like an orange ever since I profiled those puts.

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 12:23:10 PM

We've had a little volatility surrounding the Philly Fed report but the consolidation since 11:00 AM makes me think we're still going to get another leg down. New downside targets for ES are 1368.75 (two equal legs down from this morning's high) and then 1366 (2nd leg down 162% of the 1st leg down).

If ES can break below its potentially bullish triangle (needs to get below 1369 to confirm) then the slightly larger downside pattern from yesterday's high gives me downside targets of 1363 (two equal legs down) and then 1355.25 (2nd leg 162%). But a break above 1374.50, confirmed by a break above 1375.50, would be bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 12:22:45 PM

Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce (RIO) $24.38 +1.37% ... back to pound that $24.50 level (Monday, Wednesday morning)

Buyers gobbled up this morning's "bad news."

Only reason I noted it was that the stock was weak at the open, while FCX and PD were strong.

Brazil Indian action little impact and RIO just as likely for a squeeze.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 12:19:23 PM

Freeport McMoran (FCX) $57.93 +2.67% ... probes its "right shoulder."

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 12:17:30 PM

See Intel (INTC) $20.89 -1.04% down at the bottom? Very LITTLE impact as to how the INDU/DIA/YM price is derived.

But oh boy does it have impact on NDX/QQQQ/NQ price derivation.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 12:14:47 PM

Dow Components (sorted by price as of 10/18/06 Close) at this Link

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 12:11:57 PM

Thanks Jeff.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 12:10:36 PM

Keene! Yes, the Dow Industrials are a PRICE weighted index, so HIGHER PRICED stocks carry more weight.

SPX, OEX and NDX are Market Cap weighted indexes.

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 12:09:41 PM

If you're short ES from the bounce to 1375.50 and you want just a little more staying power in case we get a false break to the upside, your stop will need to be just above 1375.50. I'm leaving mine at 1374.50 because I'm not willing to risk anything more than that (it'll cover commissions and buy me a cup of coffee).

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 12:09:12 PM

When I look at today's Oct $80 PUT action, I could see that PUT LONGS might be closing out at the bid, thus the DnTicks.

Nobody has flinched on the CALL side, but here I take the view of "what is the NAKED CALL trader thinking, or doing?"

When I profiled the MO Jan. $80 Calls, my target was $81.00. Sold the Oct. $80 Calls for $0.80, so $80 + $0.80 = $80.80.

Is there a pivot level that provides the "got to get long here" that has an $80 strike unwinding?

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 12:06:50 PM

The bottom of the triangle held for ES--1370.25. The top is now 1374.25. Getting tighter so a break either way should be soon.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 12:04:18 PM

MO Option Montage at this Link

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 12:02:50 PM

Jeff, I was wondering why you sorted your DOW components the way you did. Could you repost that list? I'd like to sort mine the same way.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 12:02:23 PM

1.5 days until option expiration.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 12:02:00 PM

Have you pulled up your MO option montage? Don't just think "long calls and long puts", also think "short calls and short puts"

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 12:01:00 PM

Survey says! Not good whatever it said. At least the first reaction is negative.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 12:00:57 PM

It may well be today's MO action that has the INDU/DIA/YM looking "hunchbacked" ... MO is a top 10 heavyweight. (#3) (see yesterday's Dow 12,000 component sort)

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 11:53:59 AM

The DOW is at record highs and the VIX is at record lows. The bulls in the know would feel a little better if there wasn't so much complacency about these new highs. We can certainly run higher, and the potentially bullish chart I just showed for ES (11:37) supports that, but if a move higher drives VIX down below 10 then that beep beep sound you'll hear will be my two trucks backing up to load up on long term put options. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 11:53:00 AM

Altria (MO) alert! $79.89 +1.97% ... Delays Earnings Report by One Day ... AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 11:48:59 AM

Check out 15-minute interval chart of the NDX/QQQQ. Don't really see any h/s there do you?

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 11:47:01 AM

"Who's your daddy?" ... YEP ... INDU/DIA

Jane Fox : 10/19/2006 11:46:53 AM

I will be gone for a few hours.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 11:46:29 AM

Check out the IWM on 15-minute intervals.

Jane Fox : 10/19/2006 11:45:54 AM

BTW for those you who do not know who Linda is; she was a MM commentator and a very good one I might add. She remains a very good friend of mine and I love having her in my corner all day.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 11:45:17 AM

Lots and lots of little h/s patterns aren't there? As short as this market feels/looks, there could be some decent intra-day, even further swing trade long short squeeze action.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 11:43:42 AM

Now check out a 15-minue interval chart of the INDU, or DIA. "Bear gulp!"

Jane Fox : 10/19/2006 11:40:14 AM

Linda just sent me an email reminding me of the Philadelphia Fed out at 12:00EDT. Tks Linda.

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 11:37:22 AM

The reason I want to see the uptrend line from Tuesday's low, currently at 1370, taken out (since I'm short) is because the bullish interpretation of present price action is that we're forming a sideways triangle as a bullish continuation pattern. Any break above the downtrend line from Wednesday's high, currently at 1374.50, will be bullish (if it holds above). Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 11:34:54 AM

Check out PD and a 15-minute interval chart. More "hunchbacked" as right shoulder grows into its ear.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 11:31:29 AM

Check out XOM and a 15-minute interval chart.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 11:31:03 AM

Check out FCX and a 15-minute interval chart.

Tab Gilles : 10/19/2006 11:30:32 AM

Peabody Energy (BTU)Peabody Energy's third-quarter profit rises. $42.51 +$1.57 (+3.8%) Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 11:25:50 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 11:07:56 AM

As part of a larger downward correction from yesterday's high, two equal legs down gives me ES 1363 as a downside target for my short. First support is the uptrend line from Tuesday's low (where it bounced this morning) currently at 1370.

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 11:04:55 AM

Lowering my stop on ES short to 1374.50. I'll let it ride for a bit now--risk-free trade.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 11:02:17 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 10:55:13 AM

A sharp drop in the banks this morning is being followed by a sideways consolidation which suggests another leg down when it's done.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 10:53:07 AM

There's an old axiom that that 90% of the stocks that trade $90, go on to trade $100.

For Berkshire $90,000 to $100,000?

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 10:51:34 AM

I don't know. I'm not sure ANYBODY knows. One way to find out is to FOLLOW it.

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 10:49:08 AM

The Trannies are getting a nice bounce this morning, thanks to UPS I suppose. A new downtrend line from its Monday high is at 4700. Its broken uptrend line from Sept 25th is at 4690 so that'll be a good test for this index (currently printing 4662). It makes a great short play setup since a failure there would potentially be another very bearish EW 1-2, 1-2 wave count to the downside. Link

The way this very bearish EW count is setting up on several different indices and sectors is starting to make me think we could be on the verge of a nasty broad market decline right around the corner.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 10:51:09 AM

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) $100,000.00 again. Link

Is 100,000 as psychological as Dow 12,000?

Jane Fox : 10/19/2006 10:48:23 AM

Ah thank you Jeff.

Jane Fox : 10/19/2006 10:48:08 AM

I am looking for the Natural Gas inventories that came out at 10:30. My streaming news wires is not working today. I do see Natural Gas falling so the inventories must have come in high.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 10:46:58 AM

EIA Weekly Nat. Gas Storage Table at this Link

Jane Fox : 10/19/2006 10:46:55 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures rose Thursday after Saudi Arabia voiced support for a reduction to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' oil production.

Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali Naimi said Thursday that he supports OPEC's plan to cut 1 million barrels per day from current production levels, Dow Jones reported. Members of the cartel were holding an emergency meeting in Qatar to discuss a proposed cut.

Naimi's comments helped lay to rest confusion over whether the cut would come from the cartel's production quota of 28 million barrels per day or actual production, which the U.S. Energy Department estimated at 27.64 million barrels per day in September of this year.

"At least the Saudis broke silence with a statement supporting a million barrel cut but that doesn't mean much until we see how they are going to do it," said James Williams, an economist at WTRG Economics. "After we know, then we have to figure out who will comply and to what extent."

OPEC hasn't made its decision official yet, though the market widely expects it to later today. The cartel hasn't changed its official quota since its June 15, 2005 meeting. The quota, which excludes output from Iraq, has been in effect since July 1, 2005.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 10:45:29 AM

SAP Ag (SAP) $50.40 -2.64% ... see CTXS, but SAP back juuuuust below my 10/11/06 exit of $50.74 for the SAP-KR.

MSFT is THE STOCK I think software bulls will want to be looking for new entry on pullbacks. Vista and new Office products in early 2007.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 10:33:51 AM

SPY ... here's a 15-minute interval chart with my WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement. A very small h/s pattern develops, where the slight weakness in banks/financials may have pattern playing out, but only to $134.60 Link

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 10:29:51 AM

Lowering stop on ES short to 1376, two ticks to a new high.

Jane Fox : 10/19/2006 10:28:37 AM

My crystal ball is not very clear today so I will not be trying to trade this.

Jane Fox : 10/19/2006 10:26:15 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices lost strength early Thursday, sending yields higher, after the most recent weekly jobless claims report indicated that the nation's labor market is stronger than previously understood.

Prices opened lower and extended their losses after the Bureau of Labor Statistics said initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell in the latest week to their lowest level since July.

First-time applications dropped 10,000 to 299,000 in the week ended Oct. 14. See full story.

Economists had been expecting initial claims to rise slightly, to 310,000.

The news of unexpected strength in the labor market followed several other data reports this week that have shown the housing sector also may not be as weak as many market observers have made it out to be.

The Federal Reserve's policy-setting committee is still widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting next Wednesday, but the data this week has sparked some questioning of that assumption.

"This has been a week of data reports that have been stronger than the market anticipated," said Thomas di Galoma, head of Treasury sales at Jefferies & Co.

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 10:26:01 AM

NYSE is back up testing this week's highs. It will need to keep going otherwise it'll be a triple top failure and the negative divergences since the first test of 8700 make me wonder if it'll have any better luck today.

Tab Gilles : 10/19/2006 10:22:07 AM

Citrix Sistems (CTXS)$27.70 -$7.75 -21%

Investors didn't like that they missed on licensing revenue by $8 million, overall revenue was only $3 million shy of estimates. There was weakness in their presentation server business, which is the core of what they do.

Daily chart Link Link

CTXS is on my Stock Watch List, lets give this a few days to settle down, I believe it is an over reaction.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 10:21:10 AM

Brown delivering early ... UPS $75.55 +4.37% ... cut through WEEKLY R2 as if it were not there. October 5 relative high tested here.

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 10:19:09 AM

ES 1375 got tagged. I think it's a good short here, stop 1377.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 10:17:15 AM

Altria Group (MO) $79.96 +2.08% ... its going to be a nail biter on those Oct. $80 CCs.

Jane Fox : 10/19/2006 10:12:51 AM

Although you cannot argue with the tajectory of these two. Link

Jane Fox : 10/19/2006 10:07:58 AM

VIX falling and TRIN climbing. Doesn't give me a lot bullish confidence.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 10:07:15 AM

eBay (EBAY) $30.26 +6.24% Link ... set to challenge its 10/05/06 relative high.

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 10:07:05 AM

If we get two equal legs up in the bounce from yesterday's low, as part of a larger downward correction from yesterday's high, then watch YM 12064 and ES 1375 for resistance. We're there for YM as I'm typing.

Jane Fox : 10/19/2006 10:05:07 AM

TICKS +1000 well so much for our bearish day today!!!

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 10:04:29 AM

The banking index (BIX) had broken below its uptrend line from Sept 8th on Monday and then spent the time through yesterday bouncing back up to retest that trend line. It has now dropped back sharply and looks like a kiss goodbye there. But it's currently finding support at its 20-dma at 395.18 so the bears have plenty of work to do before they can begin to declare at least short term victory. I think we've got a big warning flag here though. Link

Jane Fox : 10/19/2006 10:03:58 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - A gauge of future growth shows the U.S. economy should continue to expand at a slow pace, the Conference Board said Thursday.

The index of leading economic indicators rose 0.1% in September after falling in July and August. The index has dropped in five of the past eight months, and is down 0.9% in the past six months.

Economists expected the leading index to rise 0.3%, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch.

The leading index fell 0.2% in August and 0.3% in July.

"The behavior of the leading index so far suggests that economic growth should continue at the slow rate in the near term," the New York-based private research group said.

Five of the 10 leading indicators rose in September: Consumer expectations, money supply, stock prices, jobless claims and core capital equipment orders.

Five others fell: Building permits, factory working hours, delivery times, the interest-rate spread and new orders for consumer goods.

In the past six months, 45% of the indicators have been positive.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 10:03:10 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 10/19/2006 10:00:49 AM

Looks like the AD volume is following the lead of the AD line and is starting to climb.

Jane Fox : 10/19/2006 9:57:59 AM

But then you have the VIX making new daily lows and that is very bullish. GEESH!

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 9:56:50 AM

KBW Bank Sector Index (BKX.X) 112.77 -1.06% ... slips back below downward trend from May 8th relative high. Chart from Monday's Market Wrap Link

Jane Fox : 10/19/2006 9:56:49 AM

AD line may be +446 but AD volume is under 0. TRIN at 1.56. This is not bullish folks.

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 9:56:39 AM

The broker index has now dropped below yesterday's low in a sharp drop. That one looks good so far in its follow through to the bearish EW count. The techs and small caps are getting support this morning and that's giving a little psychological lift to the DOW and SPX. I don't trust it though. Without the banks and brokers participating (in fact with them dropping fairly hard this morning), a broader market decline is likely to follow.

Jane Fox : 10/19/2006 9:53:01 AM

Gold has a lot of resistance to overcome; 200 and 50EMA right above it then the resistance from 615-616 and the 100EMA. It seems to have enough fuel today to at least try. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 9:49:43 AM

S&P Bank Index (BIX.X) 395.05 -1.08% ... probes Tuesday's low.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 9:48:28 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Jane Fox : 10/19/2006 9:45:07 AM

The TRIN's range on Tuesday was a very bearish 1.29 to 2.37. Yesterday it was 0.96 to 1.55. Trin today is climbing to 1.55.

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 9:42:39 AM

Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce (RIO) $24.00 -0.20% ... Brazilian Indians maintain occupation at CVRD mine ... Reuters Update (3) Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 9:39:10 AM

Citigroup (C) $49.80 -0.77% Link ... Operating profit up, but revenue falls ... Reuters Story Link

Jane Fox : 10/19/2006 9:38:07 AM

NQ has broken its PDL.

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 9:38:03 AM

With the overnight lows and yesterday afternoon's lows breaking it could be significant. The brokers dropped out of the gate. So far the EW bearish pattern is getting the follow through to the downside it needs so if the decline continues quickly and takes out yesterday's low I'd say the fat lady could be singing.

Jane Fox : 10/19/2006 9:37:52 AM

ER is now testing its PDL. Will it hold?

Jeff Bailey : 10/19/2006 9:34:13 AM

United Parcel Service (UPS) $74.37 +2.70% ... Earnings Press Release

Jane Fox : 10/19/2006 9:31:39 AM

AD line opens at -251 and Ad volume a tad below 0. No direction here.

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 9:28:03 AM

A premarket move just before the open always makes me suspicious. Now I'm wondering if the push back down isn't some ploy to suck in some early shorts in order to spike them out on a buy program at the open.

Keene Little : 10/19/2006 9:13:41 AM

We got a nice lift in the futures from the overnight low around 6:00 AM. My bearish bias tells me the futures were lifted (easy to do in the low volume environment) so that the Boyz could sell into it after the cash open. That's with the expectation that we're going to see some downside today.

But it's been a relatively quiet opex week, surprisingly, and it's equally possible we're going to see a boringly flat and choppy day today, or even a push higher. Initially though I'd be careful about any opening spike to higher levels in case it's a maneuver to get some liquidity to sell into.

Jane Fox : 10/19/2006 8:59:32 AM

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Coca-Cola Co. reported a 14% increase in third-quarter profit, helped by strength in emerging markets and Europe.

Before the start of trading Thursday, Coke (KO) said it earned $1.46 billion, or 62 cents a share, up from $1.28 billion, or 54 cents a share, in the year-earlier period. The latest figures include a tax benefit of 1 cent a share.

Revenue at Atlanta-based Coke came in at $6.45 billion, up 7%, thanks in part to a 4% increase in gallon sales and a 1% currency benefit.

The average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson First Call had been for Coke to earn 59 cents a share on revenue of $6.2 billion.

Jane Fox : 10/19/2006 8:49:36 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Weekly jobless claims fell to their lowest level in almost three months, the federal government said Thursday. First-time applications for state unemployment benefits fell 10,000 to 299,000 in the week ended Oct. 14, the Labor Department said.

The four-week average of new claims, considered a more accurate indicator, also fell, dropping by 5,750 to 307,750, the lowest since June 24. Initial claims figures bucked expectations.

Economists were expecting initial claims to rise slightly to 310,000.

Initial claims for the week ended Oct, 7 were revised to a rise of 5,000 to 309,000, up slightly from the initial estimate of a 4,000 rise to 308,000.

Initial claims have been quite steady since July, with the four-week average holding in a 310,000 to 320,000 range.

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